The Alley - Oop

It is the final weekend of the college basketball regular season. March Madness really does creep up on you when you don't start paying close attention until February. The most important game of the weekend is on Saturday night at 7 pm. That is when North Carolina will take on Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Believe it or not, I probably am not going to get to see the game. Going to be visiting with some friends I don't get to see often, and sometimes things take priority. However, I will be following the game on my iPhone and will probably be just as passionate as usual.

Top 10

Saturday, March 3

#18 Louisville (22-8, 10-7) at #2 Syracuse (29-1, 16-1)

Syracuse might be the most under-appreciated 29-1 team in college basketball history. Any other year they would be getting more pub but with Kentucky being a little more dominant no one is really talking about the Cuse as potential national champions. Some of that might also have to do with their recent early flame outs in the NCAA Tournament. Louisville comes into this game struggling. They have lost three of their last five games, with one of those losses being a 1 point heartbreak to the Orange. Syracuse keeps finding ways to pull out wins in tense, late game situations. In their first meeting with Louisville no one could do anything on offense and the Orange basically pulled out a victory through sheer will. This time I expect Kris Joseph to have much more of an impact, especially on senior day.

Prediction: Syracuse 66, Louisville 57

#6 North Carolina (26-4, 13-2) at #3 Duke (26-4, 13-2)

I expect the Tar Heels to come out ready to play at Cameron on Saturday. They already have the motivation that comes with the Heels/Blue Devils rivalry, but now you get to add to that the revenge factor. Carolina had Duke beaten when they played a few weeks ago in Chapel Hill, but then they got sloppy late in the game and Austin Rivers killed them. Duke didn't deserve to win that game, and I think both teams know it. Now the Heels have a chance to ruin Senior night and win the ACC title in enemy territory. One thing that Carolina will have to do a much better job of in this game is guard the three point shot. Duke shot 38% from 3 point land and without hitting those shots, would have fallen too far behind in the second half to have a chance. The other key will be to contain Duke's guards Rivers and Seth Curry. Rivers had 29 points in the first game, and gave Kendall Marshall fits trying to guard him. Carolina dominated the rebounding battle in the first game, but still need to do a better job of keeping Mason Plumlee off the glass, as he had 14 rebounds.

Carolina doesn't really need to change their game plan from last time all that much. Every starter contributed, aside from Reggie Bullock. They got almost no bench production but that has been the story all season and isn't something that is going to magically change for this game. Tyler Zeller and Harrison Barnes both had monster games, but the problem was they were inconsistent monster games. Zeller dominated the first half, then was quiet in the second, while Barnes was nowhere to be found in the first half, and a beast in the second. If those two can play well the entire game, the Heels will not lose.

This season, Duke has not been the usual dominant home team people have come to know. They lost to Miami and Florida State, and struggled with NC State and Virginia Tech. Carolina won't be intimidated by the atmosphere at Cameron and without that advantage, I think revenge will be Carolina's.

Prediction: North Carolina 77, Duke 74

Texas (19-11, 9-8) at #4 Kansas (25-5, 15-2)

The Longhorns are squarely on the bubble but a win at Kansas would pretty much guarantee them a berth in the Tournament. That will be easier said than done as Kansas hasn't lost at Lawrence all season. Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson were the difference makers last time these teams played and that has basically been the case the entire season. Texas might be the more desperate team but Kansas is too talented to lose this one at home.

Prediction: Kansas 74, Texas 65

#12 Georgetown (22-6, 12-5) at #7 Marquette (24-6, 13-4)

The Hoyas are trying to remain in the top four of the Big East standings and earn a double bye in the conference tournament. Marquette just had their five game winning streak snapped on the road at Cincinnati. Both these teams are pretty evenly matched so this is an instance where I think home court advantage will make all the difference.

Prediction: Marquette 67, Georgetown 60

#8 Missouri (26-4, 13-4) at Texas Tech (8-21, 1-16)

Not too much to say about this one, Texas Tech is terrible and Missouri could play half heartedly and still win.

Prediction: Missouri 70, Texas Tech 54

#10 Baylor (25-5, 12-5) at Iowa State (21-9, 11-6)

This game on the other hand should be much more interesting. They Cyclones seem pretty secure as far as making the NCAA Tournament, while the Bears are fighting for a 2 seed it would appear. Baylor dominated the first game in Waco, so revenge will be on the mind of the Cyclones. Cyclones F Melvin Ejim has been quiet his last few games, but put up 17 against the Bears in the first game, and will be the difference in the Cyclones squeaking out a win.

Prediction: Iowa State 76, Baylor 74

Sunday, March 4

#1 Kentucky (29-1, 15-0) at #13 Florida (22-8, 10-5)

Great job by the schedule makers having this be the SEC regular season finale. Kentucky is one win away from sweeping the SEC. The SEC isn't known as a basketball conference but going undefeated in any conference is a pretty amazing accomplishment. The Gators are skidding, having lost their last two games, both on the road. The Gators leading scorer Kenny Boynton has struggled in those two losses, so him bouncing back is a major key. The Gators best player might be freshman Bradley Beal. In the first game against Kentucky, a blowout loss for Florida Beal fell a little too in love with the three point shot. He needs to try to stay close to the basket and play to his strengths. The Gator crowd will provide a major lift but the Wildcats have shown the ability all year, mostly through their defense that no hostile atmosphere is too much for them to handle. The Gators will give the Wildcats trouble but no reason to pick against Kentucky.

Prediction: Kentucky 72, Florida 67

#11 Ohio State (24-6, 12-5) at #5 Michigan State (24-6, 13-4)

The Buckeyes will be looking to atone for an embarrassing home loss they suffered to Michigan State a few weeks ago. They were held to just 48 points and that loss has really started what has been a recent slide for Ohio State. The Buckeyes lost at home last week to Wisconsin and then barely survived on the road against Northwestern. Michigan State is coming off an embarrassing loss at Indiana, and can't afford another loss here if they want to remain a potential #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Only Jared Sullinger and Aaron Craft bothered to show up last game, so it is important for the Buckeyes that William Buford and Deshaun Thomas play much better in this one. Spartans F Draymond Green will be filled with emotion as he plays his last home game for Michigan State. Green had 29 points against Indiana but got help from almost no one else. It was a team effort that led to the Spartans winning in Columbus last game, so the play of guys like Keith Appling and Branden Dawson, who has really struggled as of late, will be something to watch. Despite their struggles I still think Ohio State is an elite team that has underperformed. I am not sold yet on the Spartans, and that is why I am picking the semi-upset.

Prediction: Ohio State 61, Michigan State 58

Last Week: 8-2
Overall: 16-5