The top three of the ACC remained the same as last season, with North Carolina, Duke, and Florida State securing the top three spots. Four through six includes a new set of teams as Clemson, Boston College, and Virginia Tech have given way to Virginia, North Carolina State, and Miami. The top four appear to be locks for the NCAA Tournament, while NC State and Miami will need impressive showings in the ACC Tournament to earn a bid.1. North Carolina (27-4, 14-2)
Harrison Barnes leads the Heels in scoring but their unquestioned best player is ACC Player of the Year Tyler Zeller. Zeller does just about everything, he passes and shoots well, and is a terror on the glass and defensively. A full season of Kendall Marshall at the point has led to talk that Marshall may declare for the NBA draft after this season. John Henson still makes some plays that leave me shaking my head, but their is no denying his ability, as he led the Heels in rebounding. Carolina didn't quite live up to the hype that preceded them this season, but as evidenced by their blowout win at Cameron last weekend, things may be clicking at just the right time. Once again Carolina is not very deep, so any foul trouble could spell doom. Also, you never know how seriously coach Roy Williams takes the ACC Tournament, so keep that in mind if the Heels stumble.
2. Duke (26-5, 13-3)
It was an odd season for Duke. They went undefeated on the road in conference play but lost three times at home, and it could have been five had they not mounted comebacks against NC State and Virginia Tech. Bad news came a few days ago when it was announced that F Ryan Kelly will miss the ACC Tournament with an injury. It is well known that Duke's success is predicated on their ability to hit three pointers. If those shots aren't falling it doesn't matter much how the Plumlee brothers, Mason and Miles are playing. Austin Rivers won first team all ACC at point guard over Kendall Marshall and was pretty much the only reason Duke beat Carolina in their first meeting. Seth Curry is another three point specialist that Duke relies on. Duke has owned the ACC Tournament for the last decade, but it would be a pretty huge surprise if they were able to win it this season.
3. Florida State (21-9, 12-4)
The Seminoles play a rugged, ugly type of basketball but it produces results. They routed North Carolina and then defeated Duke at Cameron. While not known for their offensive prowess, one player to look out for is sharpshooter Michael Snaer who shot 44% this season and beat Duke and Virginia with late game shots. Senior Bernard James is another to play to watch, finishing with an average of 8.3 rebounds per game and shooting 61% this season.
4. Virginia (22-8, 9-7)
The Cavaliers have a very similar style of play as the Seminoles. They don't try to beat you with offensive firepower, but instead overwhelm you with defense and take advantage of each possession. It seems like F Mike Scott has been their forever and this season he earned his spot on the ACC First Team, finishing with 17.9 ppg and 8.3 rpg. Problem is he is just about the only threat to rebound for the Cavaliers, so when they face big teams like Carolina it spells trouble.
5. North Carolina State (20-11, 9-7)
Mark Gottfried has done a nice job in his first season in Raleigh. The Wolfpack may not be able to grab an NCAA bid but they don't have many seniors and should be in contention for the next few seasons. Their best player is sophomore F C.J. Leslie who lead the Wolfpack and scoring and was second in rebounding. They also have a very talented guard in Lorenzo Brown who does a great job at finding the open man. The Wolfpack are ranked highly in scoring, rebounding, assists and shooting percentage, so they are definitely a threat to make a run in this tournament.
6. Miami (18-11, 9-7)
I have followed the Hurricanes much closer this season due to former Mason coach Jim Larranaga taking over for Frank Haith this season. Larranaga has been politicking like crazy for the Canes to get into the NCAA Tournament but most experts believe they have to win at least 2 games in the ACC Tournament to get in. Guard Durant Scott has dropped his turnovers this season and has been much more careful with the ball. The Canes best player is junior C Reggie Johnson. Johnson has missed time this season due to injury and suspension, but his presence inside makes a huge difference for Miami. He almost single handedly led them to victory at Duke in February. F-C Kenny Kadji is another big body that scores and rebounds.
Below are my predictions for today's First Round games and then how I see the rest of the ACC Tournament playing out over the weekend.
First Round
#8 Maryland over #9 Wake Forest
#5 NC State over #12 Boston College
#10 Virginia Tech over #7 Clemson
#6 Miami over #11 Georgia Tech
Quarter-Finals
#1 North Carolina over #8 Maryland
#5 NC State over #4 Virginia
#2 Duke over #10 Virginia Tech
#3 Florida State over #6 Miami
Semi-Finals
#1 North Carolina over #5 NC State
#3 Florida State over #2 Duke
Finals
#1 North Carolina over #3 Florida State
I expect to see a few minor upsets in the tournament. I think Duke won't have much trouble with Clemson, but the loss of Kelly will catch up with them when they play Florida State. The Seminoles split with Miami this year, and since I think they are the better team I like them to win the rubber match. Hopefully, the Heels come ready to play on Friday against Maryland, unlike last season against Miami. I think the Wolfpack will give Carolina some trouble in the semi-finals but ultimately the Heels firepower will be too much. That sets up a finals between Carolina and Florida State, and Carolina will get their revenge for an embarrassing blowout loss at Florida State in January.
No comments:
Post a Comment