After last year's craziness the Final Four has returned to being represented by the usual suspects. The lowest seed crashing the party is #4 Louisville, but they aren't much of a Cinderella considering they won the Big East Tournament just a few weeks ago. Ohio State and Kansas made it here as two seeds, beneficiaries from their #1 seeded counterparts Syracuse and North Carolina missing key players. This weekend is expected to be all about the coronation of Kentucky, and John Calipari's first national championship. Can anyone stop the Kentucky machine, with all of its future pro prospects?#4 Louisville (30-9) vs. #1 Kentucky (36-2)
The golden ticket to reaching the Final Four seems to be struggling late in the season, then catching fire and winning the Big East Tournament, and carry that over to the NCAA Tournament. The path the Cardinals have taken seems eerily similar to the path last year's national champion, Connecticut took. Louisville dominated Michigan State in the Sweet 16 but looked to be headed home late in the second half against Florida in the Elite Eight. Then their tough defense stiffened and despite guard Peyton Siva fouling out, the Cardinals made the plays they needed to, returning to the Final Four for the first time since 2005.
Their leading scorer Kyle Kuric struggled against Florida, but second leading scorer Russ Smith picked up the slack, along with F Chane Behanan, who despite averaging 9 points per game during the regular season, has scored in double digits in all four tournament games. Guards Sive and Chris Smith are the motors of the Cardinals offense. Smith does a good job of playing within in the game and minimizes his turnovers. Siva is high risk, high reward but when he is smart he does a fantastic job of finding the open man. On the defensive side C Gorgui Deng had a block party against Michigan State and while he came back down to Earth against Florida, he still was a disruptive presence in the post.
The Wildcats blew past Indiana in a shootout in the Sweet 16 and then dominated Baylor for 38 of the 40 minutes of their Elite Eight game. This is Calipari's second straight Final Four, but this Kentucky team is leaps and bounds beyond the team he brought to the Final Four last season. Consensus #1 pick in June's NBA Draft, Anthony Davis does just about everything at a high level. F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has scary athleticism for a guy his size, G Marquis Teague has continued the Calipari tradition of flashy point guards, G Darius Miller is a senior believe it or not, and despite his minutes going down this season, he has remained a team player and performed well. Their other dangerous guard is Doron Lamb, the second leading scorer on the team behind Davis. You also can't forget about last year's superstar, Terrence Jones. The Wildcats are loaded.
These teams met New Year's Eve at Rupp, with Kentucky winning 69-62 in a foul plagued abomination. The only player that showed up for Louisville was Russ Smith who poured in 30 points. Deng was able to assert himself on the defensive end with 6 blocks but for Louisville to have any chance they need to get otherworldly performances from everyone. Louisville had no answers for David or Kidd-Gilchrist and there isn't a reason to expect that to change Saturday. To beat Kentucky, you either have to hope that the Wildcats beat themselves or that you play the perfect game. I don't see either of those events unfolding on Saturday, so Kentucky should roll to their first Championship game since 1998.
Prediction: Kentucky 74, Louisville 62
#2 Ohio State (31-7) vs. #2 Kansas (31-6)
The Buckeyes were up and down this season and to some observers underperformed. While they may not have been as critically acclaimed as last year's team, this year's version of the Buckeyes did reach the Final Four. They controlled most of their Sweet 16 game against Cincinnati, and then completed their sweep of the Big East by taking out #1 seed Syracuse, punching their first Final Four ticket since 2007.
The unquestioned two best players on the Buckeyes are their forwards, Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas. Thomas has been dominant in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 22 points per game and 6 rebounds, both above his regular season average. Sullinger had what some thought was a disappointing sophomore season, but he has come up huge in the Tournament. He is averaging 18 points through the four games, and 8.25 rebounds per game. He was able to overcome early foul trouble against Syracuse and take over the game in the second half, propelling Ohio State to the win. Their point guard, Aaron Craft won't necessarily wow you by watching him, and it is definitely a word that gets thrown around a little too much with white players, but its impossible to deny how scrappy he plays. His fellow guard, senior William Buford defines consistency. For three straight seasons he has averaged 14.4 points per game.
The Jayhawks got off to a slow start against NC State in the Sweet 16 and just barely eeked out a victory. They finally started a Tournament game hot against North Carolina and in a game of runs, they had the decisive run to close the game and make it to the Final Four for the first time since their championship in 2008. In the Tournament, their point guard Tyshaun Taylor has more resembled the maddeningly inconsistent player he was his first three seasons, although he did play fantastic against Carolina. It helped that he was playing against Stillman White, who had little prayer of being able to guard him. The Jayhawks leader is their man beast, Thomas Robinson. Robinson is pretty much an every game double double player for Kansas. It will be fun to watch him do battle with the Buckeyes bigs. Center Jeff Withey sometimes gets overlooked because of how dominant Robinson is, but he was a big part of Kansas dominating the Tar Heels bigs in the Elite 8. Guard Elijah Johnson has been huge in the Tournament, limiting his mistakes and keeping the Jayhawks in games when Taylor has struggled.
While Kentucky/Louisville figures to be a blowout, this game should be close and back and forth the entire way. Both teams have similar make ups and strengths and weaknesses in similar areas. The matchups to watch will be Craft/Buford versus Taylor/Johnson, and Sullinger/Thomas versus Robinson/Withey. Whichever team can win those matchups will win this game. If those matchups are a stalemate, like I expect they will be, this game will come down to who has the ball last. I think Ohio State is just a little bit better than Kansas, and also the team that could give Kentucky the most trouble of the teams left. I like the Buckeyes to return to the Championship game, looking to get a title and erase the memory of their 2007 championship loss.
Prediction: Ohio State 71, Kansas 69
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