The Hail Mary - Week 6

Sunday, October 18

Washington (2-3) at New York Jets (3-1), New York Jets favored by 6

The Redskins played their hearts out in Atlanta but it wasn't enough as Kirk Cousins threw a pick six in overtime. Receiver Ryan Grant slipped on the play and he took the bullet for the play but the throw was so off from where Grant was going to be, that to me it just looked like Careless Kirk rearing his ugly head. Now to be fair, Cousins did drive the Redskins down the field at the end of regulation to force overtime. No one is denying that Cousins has moments where he looks like a bonafide NFL starter. His problem has been he can't string enough of those moments together without having a major screw up in between them. The Jets are well rested for this game after having their bye week and their best position players, RB Chris Ivory and WR Brandon Marshall should be in line for strong games. The Redskins run defense had no answers for Devonta Freeman last week and Marshall's size will give the Skins corners trouble. Washington might get DeSean Jackson back this week but he would probably be covered by Darrelle Revis and thus be mostly a decoy. I think Cousins is going to struggle against the Jets secondary and try to force the issue, which means more interceptions. The Redskins will do enough to keep it close but once again come up short in the clutch.

Prediction: New York Jets 20, Washington 17

Kansas City (1-4) at Minnesota (2-2), Minnesota favored by 3 1/2

The Chiefs aren't going to win the AFC West I predicted and now without Jamaal Charles for the rest of the season, the question is when will they win another game. Charcandrick West will have to be the second coming in order for the Chiefs to not desperately miss Charles production. The Vikings have struggled in recent years coming off of a bye and while they are just .500 so far this season, their last game was a strong performance at Denver. Adrian Peterson has looked refreshed and as awesome as ever but Teddy Bridgewater hasn't taken the leap this year many expected of him. He seemed to develop a rapport with Mike Wallace last game, and hopefully they can carry that chemistry to this weekend against the Chiefs porous pass defense. How awful the Chiefs defense has been so far this year is one of the more surprising stories in the league. Big Red Andy Reid will have to try to drown his sorrows in a lot of barbecue after this game.

Prediction: Minnesota 28, Kansas City 17

Miami (1-3) at Tennessee (1-3), Tennessee favored by 2 1/2

I asked for the Dolphins to leave Joe Philbin in London and that is essentially what they did, firing Philbin another listless defeat. Interim coach Dan Campbell reminds me of Mike Singletary which isn't really a good thing. However, he seems to love old school football which should mean increased carries for Lamar Miller, which makes my fantasy football side very happy. QB Ryan Tannehill needs to get his play together and also his demeanor, as it is never a good look to berate practice squad guys for taking advantage of your sorry play. The Titans blew a game against Buffalo last week that they should have won. They were playing at home, and the Bills were down a lot of weapons on offense. You have to wonder how patient ownership will remain with Ken Whisenhunt, who is now 4-28 in his last 32 games as a coach. That is astoundingly bad. I think he will be 4-29 after Sunday as the new voice of Campbell will breathe some life into Miami.

Prediction: Miami 24, Tennessee 21

Arizona (4-1) at Pittsburgh (3-2), Arizona favored by 3

After taking a week off the Cardinals defense was back to its swarming, turnover causing selves in a blowout at Detroit. The offense was given good field position all game and Carson Palmer and David Johnson took advantage of it. The Steelers won their game on the last play of the game when they boldly went for a touchdown, instead of settling for a game tying field goal. Ben Roethlibserger is still likely about a week from returning, so Mike Vick is expected to make his third straight start. Vick was awful for three quarters at San Diego before turning things around just in time in the fourth quarter. If he is terrible on Sunday, then the Cardinals defense will eat him alive. He was helped out last week by Le'Veon Bell carrying the rushing load but for Pittsburgh to win this game Vick has to find a way to get Antonio Brown involved in the offense. No one is wishing for Roethlisberger to be back more than Brown, who has had just 8 catches and no touchdowns in his past two games. The Cardinals offense is just filled with weapons, even more so now that Andre Ellington is back and Chris Johnson seems to be undergoing the same career revival that Larry Fitzgerald is having. You can bet Cardinals coach Bruce Arians will be revved up for this game, as he was fired as the Steelers offensive coordinator a few years ago. With no Ben, I don't think the Steelers will be able to knock off the Cardinals.

Prediction: Arizona 34, Pittsburgh 24

Cincinnati (5-0) at Buffalo (3-2), Cincinnati favored by 3 1/2

Quite a stirring comeback from the Bengals, who overcame a 24-7 deficit to knock off the Seahawks in overtime. The Bills got an ugly win at Tennessee but it was a good win considering they were without Sammy Watkins, Karlos Williams, and LeSean McCoy. They may get Watkins and Williams back this week, but McCoy is likely out and now QB Tyrod Taylor is likely to miss the game. If Taylor can't go that would mean the return for at least one week, of E.J. Manuel to the starting position. To beat the Bengals you need to be at your best and be healthy and the Bills are likely to be neither on Sunday. They will need their defense to try to keep them in the game, but I don't think they will be able to do enough offensively to really give the Bengals a scare.

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Buffalo 17

Chicago (2-3) at Detroit (0-5), Detroit favored by 3

The Bears pulled out a gutsy win at Kansas City last week, while things might have hit rock bottom in Detroit as Matt Stafford was benched after throwing his third interception. Stafford will be back under center on Sunday as the Lions try to join the 31 other teams in the NFL that have victories. At this point Detroit is simply playing for pride. The Bears probably thought they were only playing for pride after starting the year 0-3 and trading away defensive starters. But since then they got healthy against the AFC West and a third straight win is certainly within reach. They are hopeful that Alshon Jeffrey will return for this game and see his first action since Week 1. It would help the Lions if RB Ameer Abdullah could curb his fumbling problem. At Nebraska, it was often overlooked because he would be running for so many yards, but he isn't doing that in Detroit so far. Calvin Johnson isn't the same player as injuries have caught up with him and so a year after an 11-5 season, things are back to looking bleak for Detroit. But for one Sunday at least, I think they will find some light, as they will knock off the Chicago Bears behind a fired up Stafford and earn their first win of the year.

Prediction: Detroit 24, Chicago 20

Denver (5-0) at Cleveland (2-3), Denver favored by 4

Peyton Manning has 6 TDs and 7 INTs this year and yet the Broncos are 5-0. Two or three years ago, hell, even last season, there is no way this could have ever been the case. But on the backs of a strong defense, Denver keeps winning games in spite of their offense. They can't find a running game and Manning seems like a shell of his former self. The Browns QB Josh McCown is having a throwback to his 2013 season with the Bears. He has been putting up video game like numbers recently and it could be reasonably argued that at this point in the season he is currently a better quarterback than Manning. If Manning is going to have a vintage Manning performance, then the Browns are the perfect team to do it against. The Browns defense is giving up 413 yards per game, and 263.6 yards passing per game. Maybe this is also finally the game where Ronnie Hillman or C.J. Anderson will do something. I was thinking about picking the Browns to pull the upset, but they're the Browns, and while they had a one week reprieve last week of Brownsing a game, order will restore itself on Sunday.

Prediction: Denver 22, Cleveland 20

Houston (1-4) at Jacksonville (1-4), Houston favored by 1

Another solid performance from Jaguars quarterback Bloof Bortles. If the Jaguars would actually win, then I think I would finally come around on Mr. Bortles. The Houston Texans are so sorry that they couldn't beat a Matt Hasselebeck led team at home, and also allowed Andre Johnson to come out of hiding and catch two touchdowns on them. To top it all off, Bill O'Brien once again made a switch at quarterback, going back to Brian Hoyer. Jacksonville has been coming oh so close in recent weeks, and even with Bortles dealing with a shoulder injury, I am confident in his ability to put up another strong game and given Jacksonville their second wind of the season.

Prediction: Jacksonville 35, Houston 31

Carolina (4-0) at Seattle (2-3), Seattle favored by 7

I have been accused of hating on the Panthers, but even I think this line from Vegas is ridiculous. Seattle is a botched call from the refs against the Lions away from being 1-4. It has to be troubling to the Seahawks that their vaunted defense couldn't hold on to a 17 point second half lead. A year or two ago and that type of lead would have meant game over. The Panthers have had two weeks to prepare for this game and Josh Norman is quickly making a name for himself as a premiere cornerback in the NFL. If he keeps this up he might become the new Richard Sherman and teams will avoid going to his side altogether. Panthers LB Luke Kuechly is out of the concussion protocol and should be back for this game. Now, while I do find the line too high, I still have respect for the power of Qwest Field and how hard it is for opponents. This should be a game highlighted by defensive performances more than offensive. It will be interesting to see how Cam Newton and Russell Wilson use their legs to evade pressure in this game and make plays. Whichever quarterback is more successful at that will lead their team to victory. In this case, I think the homefield will be the difference, although I think the Panthers are the better team.

Prediction: Seattle 20, Carolina 17

San Diego (2-3) at Green Bay (5-0), Green Bay favored by 10

After a brutal loss last Monday night the Chargers now have to travel to Lambeau and try to be competitive with the Packers. Aaron Rodgers showed he was human by actually throwing 2 interceptions at home last week against the Rams. The Packers still won comfortably, as their defense forced turnovers themselves. The Packers defense of recent years has seemed to have that bend but don't break philosophy. They will give up yards and points in bunches but create enough turnovers that it doesn't hurt the team. Philip Rivers has thrown three pick sixes this year and I think it is likely he throws another one in this game. Antonio Gates had 2 touchdowns last week in his return, which helps the passing game, but the Chargers still can't get Melvin Gordon or the run game going. Speaking of struggling rushing games, the Packers are waiting on Eddie Lacy to have his first impactful game of the season. The Chargers don't have a good rush defense, so maybe this is the week.

Prediction: Green Bay 38, San Diego 21

Baltimore (1-4) at San Francisco (1-4), Baltimore favored by 2 1/2

A couple interesting storylines in this game between bad teams. John Harbaugh coaching against his brother's former team. John said that he doesn't harbor any resentment towards the 49ers on how things ended between them and his brother, but surely he was just being diplomatic. Former Ravens wideout Torrey Smith plays his former team, and based on his lack of production so far this season, its hard to tell that he actually is a part of the 49ers now. The 49ers played their best game since the opener against the Giants last Sunday, but it wasn't enough as they lost in heartbreaking fashion. Colin Kaepernick and the offense at least looked competent again. The Ravens used to be unbeatable at home but then blew a lead to the Browns and it is becoming increasingly clear that the Ravens are not the team they used to be. Joe Flacco hopes to have Steve Smith Sr. back for this game, but even his group of unknown receivers will probably rack up big yards against the 49ers generous pass defense. The 49ers have played just two home games so far this year but in their first home game they actually looked like a good team and in their second one they surprisingly were somewhat competitive with Green Bay. With how the Ravens are floundering, I think this is a good spot for the fart whisperer Jim Tomsula to lead his team to their second win of the season.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, Baltimore 21

New England (4-0) at Indianapolis (3-2), New England favored by 8

Based on how the Patriots have dominated the Colts since the Andrew Luck era begin, including in last season's AFC Championship game, you think this would be a possible revenge game for the Colts. But you also would have been living under a rock the past 10 months, which might have been a good thing so you wouldn't have heard about this stupid DeflateGate story. The Patriots will be the ones looking for revenge after the Colts snitched on them and nearly got Tom Brady suspended for a quarter of the season. Their snitching did lead to a fine for the Patriots and a loss of draft picks. Tom Brady even admitted that he has an extra bit of motivation for this game because of the controversy. The Colts managed to win their past two games without Andrew Luck and as expected got healthy playing the AFC South for three straight weeks. However, it is back to real competition and even with Luck expected to return for this game, I expect nothing less than another Patriots blowout win. The Colts have never been able to stop the Patriots run game, so I would expect a gameplan centered around LaGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis. Frank Gore has started looking better the past few weeks and he will need to have a strong game for the Colts to have a chance. But even if he does rush pretty well, Luck has looked uneven all season, and the Patriots are not the team for him to get right against.

Prediction: New England 42, Indianapolis 24


Monday, October 19

New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia (2-3), Philadelphia favored by 4

The Eagles offense put 3 quarters of strong football together and routed the Saints last Sunday. DeMarco Murray finally got over 20 carries and scored his first rushing touchdown for Philly and now the Eagles could be tied for first place in the NFC East if they can beat the Giants. Murray could be in line for another big game if Philly commits to him as the Giants run defense is mediocre at best. New York has won three straight after an 0-2 start, mostly because QB Eli Manning is having one of the finest seasons of his career so far. It was pretty amazing watching him lead the winning drive against the Niners without Reuben Randle and Odell Beckham Jr. serving as only a decoy. The Eagles are favored in this game but I don't have a good feeling about this one. They haven't been able to sustain any forward momentum this season and Sam Bradford, while playing better recently is still throwing too many interceptions. With how well Eli is playing right now, I think the Giants make it clear after Monday night that they are the team to beat in the NFC Least.

Prediction: New York Giants 26, Philadelphia 21

Last Week Straight Up: 9-5
Overall Straight Up: 50-27

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-7-1
Overall Against the Spread: 37-38-2

The Hail Mary - Week 4

Sunday, September 28

Miami (1-2) "at" Oakland (0-3), in London, England, Miami favored by 4

Poor England always seems to get the worst matchups. The Raiders are dreadful as I and anyone that isn't a dumb superfan of the team expected, and Miami has created a quarterback controversy out of thin air. Usually, the media will start chirping and then a team has a quarterback controversy. But Dolphins coach Joe Philbin was bored or something and decided to create one of his own. He won't commit to Ryan Tannehill as his starter, despite the fact that benching him for middling Matt Moore would not be positive in any for the team. Tannehill has played poorly though, and is struggling with consistency and that is despite not throwing the ball far downfield. The Dolphins Week 1 one victory over New England feels like a distant memory at this point. A bright spot in last week's embarrassing loss at home to Kansas City was the play of Lamar Miller. Miller was running great and despite the Dolphins being close for most of the game, the Dolphins didn't embrace the success he was having. If Miller gets going strong in this game, they need to ride him and let Tannehill just manage the game. Raiders rookie QB David Carr has been decent, but he hasn't had much support from his teammates. Darren McFadden has stayed healthy but is barely averaging over 3 yards per carry. The Raiders are hoping to have Maurice Jones-Drew back, but he is over the hill and not that good anymore. If the Dolphins can't beat the sorry Raiders, maybe there should be a new coach instead of a new quarterback.

Prediction: Miami 28, Oakland 17

Green Bay (1-2) at Chicago (2-1), Green Bay favored by 1 1/2

Football's oldest and some would argue best rivalry is renewed this Sunday. The Packers come in desperate, and in a way that is different than previous years. This is the third straight season Green Bay has started 1-2, but instead of there being questions about their defense, it is their offense that has come under fire. Aaron Rodgers has been underwhelming in two out of the Packers three games, and Eddie Lacy seems like he is still shaking off the cobwebs from his Week 1 concussion. The Bears are banged up on the defensive end and have had rushing problems of their own, as Matt Forte has essentially disappeared from the team the last two weeks. Brandon Marshall has also been fighting injuries, but his presence has been made up for by TE Martellus Bennett. In the past, the Packers have always responded well when their backs have been against the wall. I expect a similar performance this Sunday, as the Bears will fall to 0-2 at home.

Prediction: Green Bay 27, Chicago 20

Buffalo (2-1) at Houston (2-1), Houston favored by 3

It's the Ryan Fitzpatrick bowl! Bills and Texans fans can unite and share Fitzpatrick horror stories. All the good feelings in Buffalo dissipated after a dispiriting home loss to the Chargers last week. A major reason for that loss was the lack of plays C.J. Spiller was able to make. The Texans were beaten like a drum by the Giants rushing attack, so Spiller and Fred Jackson could be in line for big games. The Texans were without Arian Foster last week, and he looks to be a game time decision for this game. This game will be won based on the quarterback, Fitzpatrick or EJ Manuel, that makes less mistakes. I'll go with the veteran over the second year player.

Prediction: Houston 20, Buffalo 16

Tennessee (1-2) at Indianapolis (1-2), Indianapolis favored by 7 1/2

The Colts found that the cure to losing is to play the Jacksonville Jaguars. They flatted the Jags and have calmed down some of the panic that was beginning in Indy. However, if they lose at home to the Titans that level of panic will quickly return. The Titans, much like the Dolphins, have lost all of the good vibes they had after an opening weekend win. Jake Locker has been especially terrible, and now he is injured because that's one thing Locker is good at doing. His cause won't be helped if one of his favorite targets, TE Delanie Walker, is forced to miss this game due to a shoulder injury. Even if Walker were to play, it won't matter, Andrew Luck and company are going to carve up that Titans defense.

Prediction: Indianapolis 31, Tennessee 17

Carolina (2-1) at Baltimore (2-1), Baltimore favored by 3

The main story around this game is Steve Smith Sr. facing his former team, the Panthers. Carolina decided that at 35 Smith was expendable, but Smith has played like a man possessed and quite motivated to prove the Panthers wrong. Smith will be all sorts of jacked up for this game, and I would be really surprised if he doesn't snag at least one touchdown. I had doubted the Panthers to start the season but started to come aboard after their 2-0 start. It looked like they could have an all-time type of defense. But then last week at home against Pittsburgh, the defense completely fell apart, giving up over 100 yards rushing to both Le'Veon Bell and LaGarrette Blount. The Panthers are also hurting on offense, but are hopeful they will have RB DeAngelo Williams for this game. Joe Flacco has lost one of his favorite security blankets, Dennis Pitta for the season, so expect to see Owen Daniels step into that role. I think this will be a defensive struggle type of game, and give the Ravens the edge due to homefield.

Prediction: Baltimore 19, Carolina 15

Detroit (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2), Detroit favored by 1

It wasn't pretty but the Lions got the job done at home against the Packers last week. Matthew Stafford though has not looked right the past two games and the Lions offense has really stagnated. As has been the problem in Detroit for many years, running the ball has been tough sledding so far this year. Joique Bell is getting the majority of the carries but is only averaging 3 yards per carry. If he can get going that would open up things so much for Megatron and Golden Tate. The Jets were sloppy on offense in their loss to Chicago and there are already whispers starting about benching Geno Smith in favor of Mike Vick. Much like in Miami, I think that is a knee jerk type of move that wouldn't make much of a difference and really just stunt Smith's growth. A fun battle to watch in this game will be in the trenches between the Lions defensive line and the Jets offensive front. I think the Lions are a different team away from Ford Field and because of that, expect them to fall to 0-2 on the road.

Prediction: New York Jets 26, Detroit 18

Tampa Bay (0-3) at Pittsburgh (2-1), Pittsburgh favored by 7

So somehow, despite adding respected coach Lovie Smith, the Bucs seem to have gotten worse. They were lambasted by the Falcons last Thursday night, 56-14 and at one point, actually trailed 56-0. Josh McCown was really struggling and is now out with an injury so Mike Glennon has his job back. The Steelers were told how awful they were for a week and a half and seemed to take it to heart because they played angry at Carolina. I expect Tampa to show much more heart in this game and not get completely railroaded, but the chances of them winning at Pittsburgh are about slim to none. Expect Blount to be motivated playing his former team that gave up on him a few years ago.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 34, Tampa Bay 21

Jacksonville (0-3) at San Diego (2-1), San Diego favored by 13

The Jaguars should just focus on baby steps. They shouldn't be looking to win, because lets face it, they suck and won't win this game on the road. Their goal should be to lose by single digits or allow under 30 points for the first time all season. They have already ended the Chad Henne plan and are implementing the Blake Bortles era. Bortles seemed to get the offense going when he stepped in last week, and I think the benefits of getting Bortles experience now outweighs the risks of him getting killed. San Diego is being talked about as an upper echelon team after beating Seattle at home and following that up with a convincing road win against Buffalo. It will be interesting to see how they fare in this game, against a bad opponent and after having their egos stroked.

Prediction: San Diego 35, Jacksonville 23

Philadelphia (3-0) at San Francisco (1-2), San Francisco favored by 5 1/2

The 49ers found themselves in the same position one year ago. They were 1-2, coming off back to back ugly losses and faced a must win game at St. Louis. They started off terribly but eventually righted the ship, and won the game in a blowout. After that, they proceeded to go 10-2 the rest of the season. The point of this history lesson is to try to convince myself that the 49ers season isn't going off the rails just yet. But now, welcoming undefeated Philadelphia to Levi's Stadium, a third straight loss would be disastrous. The biggest worry through the first three weeks for the 49ers is the disappearing act their offense has done in the second half of games. Before this year, when Jim Harbaugh's 49ers had a halftime lead, it guaranteed victory. But for whatever reason this year, a halftime lead just means the 49ers will completely forget everything they did in the first half. In the second half they commit stupid penalties in the second half, be unable to get stops on defense, and go three and out on offense. Greg Roman once again abandoned the run game last week for no reason, and I am starting to tire of his erratic play calling. If the 49ers lose this game it will feed the media monster that the players have tired of Harbaugh and the team is on the verge of mutiny. Philly is 3-0 but don't tell Cary Williams that. He is on the verge of his own mutiny because he has to practice too much or something. Philly has taken the opposite approach of the 49ers. They start games really crappy and then turn on the jets in the second half. LeSean McCoy is coming off perhaps his worst ever game as a pro, so the 49ers have to be ready for a revved up Shady McCoy. The Eagles pass defense is there for the taking, so this is a huge statement type game for Colin Kaepernick. Hopefully, Vernon Davis can play because history shows that without him the 49ers offense can do next to nothing. I have no reason to pick the 49ers other than blind homerism, but sometimes you just have to have faith. I think in an odd twist, this game will see the Eagles jump out to a lead, and then the 49ers rally for the win in the second half.

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Philadelphia 24

Atlanta (2-1) at Minnesota (1-2), Atlanta favored by 2 1/2

Teddy Bridgewater makes his NFL starting debut and will be the Vikings quarterback for the rest of the year after Matt Cassel was placed on IR with broken bones on his foot. Bridgewater acquitted himself pretty well in relief duty at New Orleans last week. He will need Matt Asiata to step up his game at running back to provide him some support. Asiata has been strong out of the backfield as far as catching passes, but is averaging just 3 yards per carry. The Falcons are coming off a performance they aren't likely to come anywhere near matching. They now have to prove that they can play well away from the Georgia Dome. The Vikings are a much easier opponent than the Bengals were and add to that facing a rookie quarterback and a loss in this game would be unacceptable for the Falcons.

Prediction: Atlanta 24, Minnesota 14

New Orleans (1-2) at Dallas (2-1), New Orleans favored by 3

New Orleans has dominated Dallas in recent meetings, but Dallas is feeling pretty good after overcoming a large deficit at St. Louis last weekend. Despite getting behind big Dallas stuck with DeMarco Murray, who has been sensational the first three weeks of the season. However, after securing the ball well in his career, he has had a case of fumbleitis this season. The Saints are coming off their first victory of the season. However, the offense is still not at the level we are used to seeing. Khiry Robinson has stepped in for the injured Mark Ingram at running back, and Brandin Cooks has been as good as advertised at receiver. The stats are there, the Saints just aren't converting all those yards into points. The Cowboys defense has been better than expected so far this year, but playing this Saints team will serve as a litmus test for both their defense and the Saints offense. Tony Romo has been susceptible to some bad throws this year, and at a higher rate than he was throwing them at last season. It is obvious that he is still trying to get himself right coming off surgery in the off-season. The Saints are a putrid road team but the Cowboys themselves aren't very good at home. I'll go with the better offense. 

Prediction: New Orleans 28, Dallas 24


Monday, September 29

New England (2-1) at Kansas City (1-2), New England favored by 3 1/2

The Patriots seem to have this penchant this last few seasons of not being able to blow out teams that you think would be overmatched. It happened again last weekend against Oakland, when they couldn't put away the Raiders. Tom Brady has been average at best and even saying that might be kind. He said he would retire when he sucks and it might be closer to happening than he realized. The only receiver that he seems to be able to consistently get the ball to is Julian Edelman. The run game has been stagnant as Stevan Ridley has probably had his confidence completely damaged by the yo-yo treatment Bill Belichick has given him over the years. The Chiefs did what I expected them to do and got off the schneid at Miami. Alex Smith played safe and avoided huge mistakes and Knile Davis looks like he could be a star in the making at running back. The Chiefs are hopeful they will have Jamaal Charles back for this game, but even if he returns they should use Davis a little more, since Charles is so brittle. Arrowhead Stadium used to give the Chiefs great homefield advantage, but as evidenced by how the Titans destroyed them there in Week 1, I don't expect it to be much of a factor in this game. I expect the Patriots to win ugly yet again.

Prediction: New England 24, Kansas City 21

Last Week Against the Spread: 8-8
Overall Against the Spread: 20-28

Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 25-23

The Hail Mary - Week 13

Thursday, November 28

Green Bay (5-5-1) at Detroit (6-5), Detroit favored by 6 1/2


Prediction: Detroit 28, Green Bay 22

Oakland (4-7) at Dallas (6-5), Dallas favored by 9 1/2


Prediction: Dallas 31, Oakland 23

Pittsburgh (5-6) at Baltimore (5-6), Baltimore favored by 3


Prediction: Baltimore 17, Pittsburgh 12


Sunday, December 1

Miami (5-6) at New York Jets (5-6), New York Jets favored by 1


Prediction: New York Jets 24, Miami 20

Chicago (6-5) at Minnesota (2-8-1), Chicago favored by 1


Prediction: Chicago 32, Minnesota 27

Arizona (7-4) at Philadelphia (6-5), Philadelphia favored by 3


Prediction: Arizona 24, Philadelphia 17

Jacksonville (2-9) at Cleveland (4-7), Cleveland favored by 6 1/2


Prediction: Jacksonville 18, Cleveland 14

Tennessee (5-6) at Indianapolis (7-4), Indianapolis favored by 4


Prediction: Indianapolis 29, Tennessee 26

Tampa Bay (3-8) at Carolina (8-3), Carolina favored by 8 1/2


Prediction: Carolina 26, Tampa Bay 20

New England (8-3) at Houston (2-9), New England favored by 8 1/2


Prediction: New England 35, Houston 17

St. Louis (5-6) at San Francisco (7-4), San Francisco favored by 9 1/2


Prediction: San Francisco 24, St. Louis 21

Atlanta (2-9) at Buffalo (4-7), Buffalo favored by 3 1/2


Prediction: Buffalo 28, Atlanta 21

Denver (9-2) at Kansas City (9-2), Denver favored by 4 1/2


Prediction: Denver 34, Kansas City 24

Cincinnati (7-4) at San Diego (5-6), San Diego favored by 2


Prediction: Cincinnati 25, San Diego 23

New York Giants (4-7) at Washington (3-8), New York Giants favored by 1 1/2


Prediction: Washington 24, New York Giants 21


Monday, December 2

New Orleans (9-2) at Seattle (10-1), Seattle favored by 6


Prediction: Seattle 26, New Orleans 21

Last Week Against the Spread: 4-9-1
Overall Against the Spread: 84-84-8

Last Week Straight Up: 5-8-1
Overall Straight Up: 116-59-1

The Hail Mary - Week 10

Sunday, November 10

Philadelphia (4-5) at Green Bay (5-3), Green Bay favored by 2 1/2

These two teams perfectly capture just how much the landscape can change in the NFL on a week to week basis. Before last week's game the Eagles had been held without a touchdown on offense in back to back games. There was talk about how much of a failure the Chip Kelly offense had been, and how the Eagles needed to find their franchise quarterback. Then Nick Foles goes out and ties an NFL record by throwing 7 TD passes. He now has 13 TDs and 0 INTs this year, which are Peyton Manning like numbers. For Green Bay, their season went up in the air in an instant as soon as Aaron Rodgers was sacked and fractured his collarbone. The Packers had already been besieged by injuries, but with Rodgers under center they were able to overcome them. Sticking Seneca Wallace under center doesn't have quite the same affect. The Packers could be without Rodgers for at least a month, which to me meant they would give Matt Flynn a call. He knows the system and has performed well in the system when given a chance. However, no call to Flynn has been made, so Mike McCarthy seems content to go with Wallace right now. Normally, I wouldn't give Philly a chance in Lambeau, but without Rodgers the look of the Packers offense changes considerably. Eddie Lacy should have another big game, but I think the Packers passing game will struggle yet again. Foles won't have a monster game like last week, but I expect him to be solid.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Green Bay 20

Seattle (8-1) at Atlanta (2-6), Seattle favored by 6 1/2

A rematch of last season's classic NFC Divisional Round game. Quite a bit has changed since that January afternoon, as the Falcons have imploded and the Seahawks are currently the best team in the NFC. Matt Ryan has struggled mightily the last two weeks without his top two receivers. There is a chance Roddy White will be back Sunday, which would be fun to see him renew his rivalry with Richard Sherman. The Seahawks have looked vulnerable the last two weeks, barely beating crappy teams St. Louis and Tampa Bay. The 49ers would love for the Seahawks to drop a game ahead of their matchup with each other but I think that on Sunday the Seahawks will once again find a way to slither away with a victory. Marshawn Lynch should have a big day for Seattle against the Falcons poor run defense.

Prediction: Seattle 30, Atlanta 24

Detroit (5-3) at Chicago (5-3), No Line

Jay Cutler' has been cleared and appears set to start on Sunday for the Bears. The Bears seem to have finally gotten their backup quarterback situation right. Josh McCown has been solid since having to step in for Cutler. Whoever starts for Chicago in this game, I like the Bears to win at home. The Lions offense doesn't seem to be as crisp on the road, so I don't expect Reggie Bush and Matthew Stafford to go off like they did when these teams played in Detroit. The Bears offensive line has been playing well, so that should mitigate the impact that Ndamukong Suh and that Lions defensive line will have on the game.

Prediction: Chicago 28, Detroit 21

Jacksonville (0-8) at Tennessee (4-4), Tennessee favored by 13

I watched this special on Discovery channel that focused on the Jaguars/Niners game in London and it was amazing how positive Jaguars coach Gus Bradley remains. His father had just died, his football team is atrocious, but the guys kept smiling. The players seem to really like him, unfortunately, if they don't start winning games he won't be around much longer. You couldn't pay me to pick the Jaguars in a game right now. The AFC South is down to the Colts and Titans right now, so games like these are must win for Tennessee.

Prediction: Tennessee 35, Jacksonville 16

St. Louis (3-6) at Indianapolis (6-2), Indianapolis favored by 10

I was not as fast as others to jump on the Andrew Luck bandwagon, but I'd have to be a fool to not recognize that he has proven himself as a top tier quarterback this season. He could still stand to raise that completion percentage, but he has cut way down on the turnovers this season. The way he helped bring the Colts back at Houston last weekend was highly impressive. The Rams are still competing hard but don't have the players on offense to consistently win games. However, it had to be nice for them to see Zac Stacy break out last weekend against a tough defense in Tennessee. If Stacy can run consistently well that will take a lot of pressure off of Kellen Clemens. Plus, their young defense has been up and down all season. I expect them to stay within shouting distance of Indianapolis but for Luck and the Colts to win again.

Prediction: Indianapolis 31, St. Louis 22

Oakland (3-5) at New York Giants (2-6), New York Giants favored by 7 1/2

Despite being 2-6, the Giants remain very much a part of the NFC East race. They go for their third straight victory against a struggling Oakland offense. Terrelle Pryor has had his moments but hasn't been able to consistently get the Raiders passing game to produce. Darren McFadden is once again injured, so the Raiders will have to get something going with the passing game to have a chance on Sunday. After the way Foles lit up the Raiders secondary, Eli Manning has to be licking his chops. The Giants will also receive a boost to their run game, as RB Andre Brown is expected to make his debut and split carries with Brandon Jacobs and Peyton Hills.

Prediction: New York Giants 32, Oakland 25

Buffalo (3-6) at Pittsburgh (2-6), Pittsburgh favored by 3 1/2

The Steelers season reached a new low last week when they allowed 55 points to the Patriots. The Steelers just aren't very good and age has seemed to catch up to the team in critical positions. The Bills will have E.J. Manuel back, which is good news after Jeff Tuel time had to start for them last week. These teams are about equal in my opinion talent wise, so if in doubt, go with the homefield advantage.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Buffalo 17

Cincinnati (6-3) at Baltimore (3-5), Cincinnati favored by 1 1/2

I have to say, I am feeling pretty good about myself as the Ravens are proving me right in my belief that they would be pretty bad this season. They are halfway to the 6-10 mark I predicted for them. All the problems I expected with trying to have Joe Flacco carry your offense with no weapons are coming to fruition. I guess one thing that has been stunning is how terrible a player Ray Rice has been this season. Some of it is the fault of a poor offensive line, but Rice is an explosive back, sometimes you have to make plays happen on your own. The Bengals are the best of a bad division, which is good news for them as they are losing players to injuries on the defense at an alarming rate. Geno Atkins was the latest to go down, and Andy Dalton proved that talk of his ascension to elite might have been premature with a poor performance against Miami. The Ravens aren't good but they are still a tough team to beat at home. With all the injuries facing the Bengals defense, I think Flacco and company can make enough plays to keep their season alive for now.

Prediction: Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 20

Carolina (5-3) at San Francisco (6-2), San Francisco favored by 6

Pinto vs. Hirsch. My most loyal reader Matt Pinto has got to be filled with joy over the four game winning streak his Panthers are on. They pushed the Falcons aside last week and have made the NFC South a two team race between themselves and the Saints. However, plenty of doubters of the Panthers still remain. They rightfully point out that the four teams the Panthers have beaten during this streak are a combined 6-27. But this Sunday in San Francisco, we will get a true barometer of just how much Carolina has improved. The biggest improvement for Carolina from last season is that they are back to being able to run the ball effectively. That will be a difficult task against the 49ers, who are 12th in the league against the run. The 49ers defense is also expected to have Aldon Smith back for this game. The 49ers got some good news during their bye week, as Mario Manningham should be back for this game, and Michael Crabtree has begun passing. They could use all the help they can get for their passing game which ranks dead last in the NFL. That hasn't really mattered though because their rushing game is first in the league and Frank Gore is once again averaging over 4 yards per carry. The Panthers are second in the league against the rush, so Colin Kaepernick may have to make more plays with his arm this game than he has been used to having to do this season. I'm a wait and see type of guy and until the Panthers beat teams with a pulse, I'm not buying what they're selling.

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Carolina 17

Houston (2-6) at Arizona (4-4), Arizona favored by 2 1/2

Case Keenum appears to be the truth. Matt Schaub should get used to that spot on the bench and stop with his Alex Smith impersonation of wearing his helmet on the sidelines like he might go in at any minute. Keenum lit up the Colts in the first half, but then him and his teammates let down in the second half, mostly because they were worried about the health of their coach Gary Kubiak. Wade Phillips is taking over as the interim coach, but I don't expect him to change the Texans fortunes. Whatever mojo the Texans had the last few years appears gone, and their defense especially isn't making key stops. The Cardinals are a tough team to beat in Arizona, and with emerging running back Andre Ellington, they hopefully won't have to ask Carson Palmer to make too many plays.

Prediction: Arizona 26, Houston 21

Denver (7-1) at San Diego (4-4), Denver favored by 7

The Chargers are coming off a brutal loss at Washington. Any time you have first and goal at the 1 to win the game, then you should win the game. It was curious to me how Ryan Mathews disappeared from the gameplan. He was running pretty well against Washington in the first half, but then the Chargers went exclusively with Danny Woodhead in the backfield. Denver starts the second half of their season without their head coach, John Fox. Fox had to have heart surgery, so Jack Del Rio is taking over in place of him. Let's be hones though, Del Rio will still command the defense, but Peyton Manning is the coach of the offense. We will learn a lot about just how good the Broncos are these next few weeks, with their next five games being against teams that are .500 or better. The Chargers porous secondary is going to be in trouble with Denver's multiple wideout sets. Philip Rivers will probably throw for a ton of yards, but I don't think the Chargers will achieve the balance on offense necessary to beat Denver.

Prediction: Denver 35, San Diego 27

Dallas (5-4) at New Orleans (6-2), New Orleans favored by 7

It is always fun when these two teams get together. Expect lots of points, and a lot of passing, with very little rushing attempts in between. The Saints are coming off a highly disappointing performance against the Jets and the offense especially struggled. Brees made a few too many careless passes with the ball and obviously missed the presence of Darren Sproles and Marques Colston. Colston and Sproles are both questionable for this game, but if Colston does play, the Saints have to hope that he and Brees can get back on the same page. Jimmy Graham has been excellent but the Saints need their other wideouts like Kenny Stills, Lance Moore, and Robert Meachem to be more consistent. The Cowboys got DeMarco Murray back but still seem to avoid running the ball like it is a virus. Without a run game, Dallas will continue to be the average team they have been for so long. The Cowboys number one objective either via the draft or free agency should be to complement Tony Romo with a top flight running back.

Prediction: New Orleans 41, Dallas 27


Monday, November 11

Miami (4-4) at Tampa Bay (0-8), Miami favored by 2 1/2

The Dolphins have a game this weekend? You wouldn't know it based on all the talk surrounding the team concerning Richie Incognito's alleged bullying of Jonathan Martin. I think what has surprised me the most about this whole ordeal is the fact that Incognito called Martin the n word and yet people are still defending Incognito. Remember when Riley Cooper got caught saying the n word and people wanted him kicked out of the league? Why do people seem to care so little about Incognito saying it? It is hard to really have a firm opinion on this because no one outside of the locker room knows these guys relationship and what led up to Martin freaking out and leaving the team. I do know that the voice mail Incognito left went way too far, but I also think it was poor form on Martin's part to walk out on his teammates in the middle of a season. Coach Joe Philbin has to make sure that his players don't get too distracted by all the noise around them and are ready to focus on Tampa. Tampa proved that despite their dismal record they are no walk over after nearly beating Seattle. I thought they had quit on Greg Schiano, but the effort they had last Sunday proved me wrong. The Bucs are hungry for a win and this is a dangerous game for Miami if they aren't ready to play. The Dolphins were already weak at offensive line and now are missing two starters from the line so Tannehill will really need to develop some wheels. The Dolphins run game has looked good the past two games, but they have to be ready for Bucs RB Mike James who gashed the Seahawks. I've already devoted entirely too many words to this game.

Prediction: Miami 24, Tampa Bay 21


Last Week Against the Spread: 5-8
Overall Against the Spread: 66-63-4

Last Week Straight Up: 8-5
Overall Straight Up: 92-41

The Hail Mary - Week 8

Sunday, October 27

San Francisco (5-2) "at" Jacksonville (0-7),  in London, England, San Francisco favored by 16 1/2

The 49ers are headed back to jolly old England, where three years ago they knocked off the Denver Broncos. Things expect to be considerably easier this time as they face the worst team in football, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Kinda funny that it worked out that three of the four teams picked to play in London this year entered the game winless. The only way I could see this being a close game is if the 49ers somehow suffer from jet lag despite being in London since Monday. Frank Gore has been the 49ers bell cow after a slow start to the season and now he gets to face the worst rush defense in football. It would be nice if Colin Kaepernick could have a big day passing the football, especially since another of his weapons, Mario Manningham is closer to returning to action. The 49ers defense should make lifer miserable for Chad Henne and I expect them to be able to get a lot of pressure on him. Maurice Jones-Drew is a shell of his former self so he doesn't worry me all that much. The Niners just need to get out of London healthy and keep pace with the Seahawks in the NFC West.

Prediction: San Francisco 34, Jacksonville 13

Miami (3-3) at New England (5-2), New England favored by 7

Both the Dolphins and the Patriots are looking to bounce back from disappointing division losses last week. The Dolphins couldn't beat a Bills team starting a quarterback that was on their practice squad three weeks ago and have now lost three in a row. The Patriots finally had Rob Gronkowski back and he made an immediate impact but it still wasn't enough to beat the Jets. Ryan Tannehill had 3 TDs last week but also threw costly interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown. Traveling to New England is not ideal for a team that desperately needs a win to get back on track. Tom Brady could have Danny Amendola back for this game and would finally have the receiving corps he anticipated before the season started. The Patriots defense started to show some signs of their injuries as Chris Ivory ran for over 100 yards against them. The Dolphins haven't shown an ability to consistently run the ball, and I don't think Tannehill is at a point where he can win a tough game like this on the road without a lot of help.

Prediction: New England 28, Miami 20

New York Giants (1-6) at Philadelphia (3-4), Philadelphia favored by 6

The Giants finally got off the schneid, beating the Minnesota Vikings in perhaps the most unimpressive victory in NFL history. The Eagles are coming off their worst offensive game of the season, where Nick Foles was kind enough to make it clear that Michael Vick is a much better quarterback than him. Vick is expected to start on Sunday, and hopefully this time he will be able to finish a game against the New York Giants. The Eagles loss to Dallas last week was their ninth straight home loss, an unbelievable streak. The Giants felt due for a win last week, and the Eagles feel due for a home win this week. The Giants may once again have to start Peyton Hillis at running back, meaning another game of averaging 2 yards per carry is likely to happen. Eli Manning managed to not throw an interception last weekend so that means he is due for at least one or two against Philly.

Prediction: Philadelphia 27, New York Giants 23

Dallas (4-3) at Detroit (4-3), Detroit favored by 3

A silly back and forth has been going on about whether or not Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant said he was as good as Lions receiver Calvin Johnson. That makes for some good copy leading up to the game but won't mean a thing once the game starts. The Dallas defense was very impressive in shutting down the Eagles high powered offense this week, and faces another tough offense in the Lions. Both teams have pass defenses that rank towards the bottom of the league, so this game has the potential for a lot of fireworks. In the end with both teams about even, I'll lean towards home field and take the Lions.

Prediction: Detroit 28, Dallas 24

Cleveland (3-4) at Kansas City (7-0), Kansas City favored by 7

The Browns are turning to their third quarterback this season, former Redskin Jason Campbell. Campbell is pretty much terrible at this stage of his career, and he gets to face the best defense in football in the Chiefs. Texans quarterback Case Keenum actually did alright versus the Chiefs defense but was eventually overwhelmed by the pressure of their pass rushers. The Chiefs schedule is so easy this year, that I don't feel like we will get a real read on them until they play the Broncos at Denver on November 17th.

Prediction: Kansas City 24, Cleveland 10

Buffalo (3-4) at New Orleans (5-1), New Orleans favored by 12 1/2

Little known fact about the Bills, they are the only team in the NFL besides the Denver Broncos to score at least 20 points in every game so far this season. They have done this despite having to start Thad Lewis the last two weeks. Lewis has acquitted himself pretty well for a guy that started the year on the practice squad. The Saints are playing their first game in two weeks, and most likely used the bye to get the bad taste out of their mouths following the last second loss to the Patriots. The Bills defense ranks towards the bottom of the league against both the run and pass, so Drew Brees has got to be licking his chops. The Bills best chance is if Mario Williams can continue to wreak havoc as he done so successfully this season.

Prediction: New Orleans 34, Buffalo 23

New York Jets (4-3) at Cincinnati (5-2), Cincinnati favored by 6 1/2

Everytime I am ready to bury the New York Jets they pull another win out of their asses. I don't think anyone saw them beating the Patriots coming, especially once they got down 21-10. Rex Ryan is a very good coach, because the talent or lack thereof on the offense is staggering, yet the Jets are very competitive. This should be more of a defensive than offensive battle as both teams have defenses that can slow the opposing teams run and pass games very well. Geno Smith has struggled with turnovers in some road games, and while it is nice for him that Leon Hall is out for the year, the Bengals still have plenty of guys that can force Smith into bad decisions.

Prediction: Cincinnati 28, New York Jets 14

Pittsburgh (2-4) at Oakland (2-4), Pittsburgh favored by 3

The Steelers return from the dead has a good chance of continuing as they travel to Oakland on Sunday. However, Big Ben still probably has nightmares from his most recent trips to Oakland, both which resulted in losses. The Steelers recent success can be tied to their running game finally starting to come alive, led by Le'Veon Bell. The Steelers have had problems of their own stopping the run, so Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden could be key factors in the game. In fact, the Raiders defense as a whole has been surprisingly pretty good. I think Big Ben has to win in Oakland at some point and he will break the hex on Sunday as the Steelers win their third straight.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Oakland 22

Washington (2-4) at Denver (6-1), Denver favored by 13

Mike Shanahan makes his first return trip to Denver where he won two Super Bowls and built a reputation that he lives on to this day. The Redskins offense saved the day and their season last Sunday. Robert Griffin III looked like the RG3 of 2012 and Roy Helu looked like he was back at Nebraska ripping off touchdown after touchdown. The defense scored another touchdown but also gave up points in bunches and that has Redskins fans fearful of what Peyton Manning might do to them this Sunday. Making matters worse, the Redskins will be without head hunter Brandon Merriweather at safety. Although, let's be honest, Skins are more used to him not playing than actually being on the field. His absence means we will probably get to see Bacarri Rambo's corpse resurrected so he can get burned a few times. The Broncos should be extra focused this week after a disappointing performance last weekend in Indianapolis. The Skins should be able to keep this competitive because the offense seems back on track. They also should be able to get at least some pressure on Manning with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan. But still, the Broncos just have too many weapons for the Skins defense, and plus, with the game being in Denver, the Skins have no shot.

Prediction: Denver 42, Washington 31

Atlanta (2-4) at Arizona (3-4), Arizona favored by 2 1/2

The Falcons and Matt Ryan made it known that they aren't ready to be buried yet. Despite injuries to his top two receivers, Ryan had an outstanding game against the Buccaneers, turning Harry Douglas into a fantasy football star. The Cardinals have dropped two in a row and Carson Palmer has been a turnover machine this season, throwing 13 interceptions. He was expected to bring the Cardinals passing attack alive but instead they rank 17th in the league. They also can't run the ball with any sort of success, once again putting way too much pressure on their defense. The Falcons think they will have Steven Jackson back in this game, some good news for a team in desperate need of some. For the Falcons to keep alive Wild Card hopes, this is a must win game on the road.

Prediction: Atlanta 30, Arizona 23

Green Bay (4-2) at Minnesota (1-5), Green Bay favored by 10

As the quarterbacks turn continues in Minnesota as it appears that Christian Ponder will get back his starting job due to Josh Freeman suffering a concussion in the loss to the Giants. Maybe that explains why Freeman was so horrible and off throwing the ball last Monday night. I understand being new to an offense, but that doesn't explain throwing the ball well over your receivers heads and out of bounds all the time. It almost seemed like the Vikings were simply having Freeman throw a ton as a sort of try out, as they hardly tried to use Adrian Peterson. Peterson could find it tough sledding against the Packers as they rank third in the league against the run. Ponder did have the best game of his career at home against Green Bay last season, and former Packer Greg Jennings will be looking to make an impact. On the offensive side of the ball for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers lost another receiver, this time tight end Jermichael Finley. Rodgers didn't really miss a step though against Cleveland last week, throwing for 260 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is being helped by the emergence of Eddie Lacy, who is giving Green Bay their first consistent threat at running back since the Ryan Grant era. The Vikings have yet to win a game at the Metrodome this season and were embarrassed by the Panthers last time they played here. Not exactly closing down the dome in style.

Prediction: Green Bay 28, Minnesota 17


Monday, October 28

Seattle (6-1) at St. Louis (3-4), Seattle favored by 11

Rams fans are going to learn to be careful what they wish for. All those Rams fans that were tiring of Sam Bradford, despite him having 14 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions, now get to watch Kellen Clemens quarterback their team. That's because Bradford tore his ACL against the Panthers and is now out for the season. The Rams already were without a running game, now they will more than likely be without a passing game. Even worse for them, they are hosting the best team in the NFC right now, the Seahawks. Seattle's defense is going to make life miserable for Clemens on Monday night, and the Rams defense hasn't shown the ability to stop anyone on a consistent basis. Ranking 30th against the run, the Rams should have no problem allowing Marshawn Lynch to enter beast mode.

Prediction: Seattle 27, St. Louis 9


Last Week Against the Spread: 9-6
Overall Against the Spread: 55-48-4

Last Week Straight Up: 11-4
Overall Straight Up: 74-33

The Hail Mary - Week 6

Sunday, October 13

Carolina (1-3) at Minnesota (1-3), Minnesota favored by 2 1/2

The Vikings made news during their bye week when they landed recently released quarterback Josh Freeman. Freeman signed a one-year deal with the Vikings, and it seems that if he picks up the offense, he will have a chance at the starting job. He won't be ready to start this weekend, and it appears that Matt Cassel will make his second straight start. This despite the fact the incumbent starter Christian Ponder has been cleared to play. Cassel did some nice things in the win against Pittsburgh, so it makes sense to me to give him another start. The Panthers don't have a quarterback controversy yet, but they might if Cam Newton continues to play as dreadful as he did last weekend against Arizona. Newton showed so much promise in his rookie year, but in these past few seasons he hasn't been able to match that production. Some would argue that the Panthers have done a lousy job of providing him adequate weapons. While that is true to some extent, it doesn't completely absolve Newton, who hasn't shown a ton of growth as a player. I think the Vikings win their first game of the year at the Metrodome, and Cassel makes it clear that the starter's job is his. This also is the type of game where I expect Adrian Peterson to make his presence felt often.

Prediction: Minnesota 23, Carolina 16

Philadelphia (2-3) at Tampa Bay (0-4), Line is a pick em'

Philadelphia earned a season saving win at New York, and it was backup quarterback Nick Foles that led the comeback. Michael Vick was injured, this time after not even being touched, and will at least miss this game against Tampa. Foles can't add that extra dimension of running that Vick does, but he throws a pretty ball and gives the Eagles one of the better backup quarterbacks in football. The Bucs had a week off, got rid of Josh Freeman, and are hoping that Mike Glennon spent the bye week working on his game, instead of lounging around. The Bucs actually have a pretty good defense and I think they can slow down the Eagles high powered offense. I just don't trust Glennon to make enough plays to keep the Eagles defense honest, so they will focus all their attention on slowing down Doug Martin.

Prediction: Philadelphia 21, Tampa Bay 17

Cincinnati (3-2) at Buffalo (2-3), Cincinnati favored by 7 1/2

EJ Manuel is hurt and the Bills saw enough of Tuel time against the Browns to know they wanted nothing to do with him as their starting quarterback. They missed out on Josh Freeman, so they instead called up Thaddeus Lewis from their practice squad. Lewis has started one career game, with the Cleveland Browns last season. Lewis was decent in that game, but he will have his work cut out for him this weekend against a Bengals defense that made life miserable for Tom Brady last week. Cincinnati has not been a good road team this season, and questions are getting louder about the capability of quarterback Andy Dalton to lead them deep into the playoffs. If Manuel was playing I would pick the Bills, but I don't think Thad Lewis can go from practice squad member to winning starting quarterback in a week.

Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Buffalo 17

Detroit (3-2) at Cleveland (3-2), Detroit favored by 2 1/2

The Lions may never win again at Lambeau Field. This seemed like their best chance in years, but then WR Calvin Johnson was ruled out right before the game, and the Lions offense went out with him. He will be a gametime decisions for this one, and whether or not the Lions win probably hinges on whether or not Johnson suits up. The Browns have won three in a row and that would usually lead to optimism, but Cleveland sports fans are never allowed to be too happy. Brian Hoyer was lost for the season in the win over Buffalo, so the Browns are back to the Brandon Weeden era. You know expectations are low when Weeden completes barely over 50 percent of his passes against Buffalo and people are praising him. The Browns had a nice little run there, but with Hoyer out, that comes to an end on Sunday.

Prediction: Detroit 28, Cleveland 17

Oakland (2-3) at Kansas City (5-0), Kansas City favored by 9

With each passing week Terrelle Pryor looks more and more like the real deal. Against the Chargers, he showed his accuracy, and so far the Raiders aren't nearly as bad a team as people were predicting. The Chiefs continue to win with their beast of a defense, and behind the running of Jamaal Charles. To beat the Chiefs a team will have to take Charles out of the game, and force Alex Smith to try to beat them. Facing a hostiel crowd at Arrowhead, I don't think the Raiders have that kind of effort in them.

Prediction: Kansas City 26, Oakland 18

Pittsburgh (0-4) at New York Jets (3-2), New York Jets favored by 2 1/2

The Jets shocked everyone by going into Atlanta and beating the Falcons. Even more shocking was that turnover machine Geno Smith didn't have any turnovers. Jets fans are taking this as a sign that the team might be a playoff contender. However, I choose to see it more as just how terrible the Falcons are. The Steelers have inched closer and closer to getting that elusive first victory the last few weeks. The return Heath Miller, and now having La'Veon Bell in the mix should take some pressure off of Ben Roethlisberger. I think the Jets might be feeling a little too high on themselves this week, and with the Steelers having had a week off to prepare, this is the perfect set up for Pittsburgh to earn their first victory.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 23, New York Jets 21

Green Bay (2-2) at Baltimore (3-2), Green Bay favored by 3

The Ravens defense has steadily improved since an embarrassing open to the season against the Broncos. The offense went back to featuring Ray Rice last weekend, and that is a formula offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell should stick with. Baltimore is always tough to beat at home, and while the Packers have had their troubles on the road, I think talent wise they are a far superior team to Baltimore. I think the Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will find holes in the Ravens secondary, and I think that Eddie Lacy can pound the Ravens defense into submission. Joe Flacco has been good for an interception or two the last few weeks, and even without Clay Matthews I still think the Packers defense can put pressure on Flacco.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, Baltimore 17

St. Louis (2-3) at Houston (2-3), Houston favored by 7 1/2

Matt Schaub is an absolute mess. Four straight weeks he has thrown a pick six, setting a dubious NFL record. Greg Kubiak is sticking with Schaub, probably because the Rams defense has made every offense look good against them. If Schaub can't play well at home against the Rams, then it is definitely time for Houston to see what T.J. Yates can do. One player that will definitely have a big game is RB Arian Foster. The Rams rush defense is trifling, so not only could Foster have a big game, so could Ben Tate. I just don't trust Schaub enough right now to pick the Texans to cover.

Prediction: Houston 34, St. Louis 27

Jacksonville (0-5) at Denver (5-0), Denver favored by 27

Didn't think I would ever see the day where one NFL team was favored by 27 points over another NFL team. But with the paths the Jaguars and Broncos have taken so far this year, you can't argue with the spread being that large. Dallas exposed what might could turn out to be Denver's weakness, their defense, but this is the last game they will play without Von Miller. Chad Henne is back at quarterback for Jacksonville. I'm not sure if Blaine Gabbert is hurt or was benched to sucking and quite frankly I don't care enough to look it up. I think Peyton and most of the starters will be pulled for this game by the 4th quarter, allowing the Jags to get the backdoor cover.

Prediction: Denver 43, Jacksonville 17

Tennessee (3-2) at Seattle (4-1), Seattle favored by 13 1/2

The Seahawks blew a lead a week after a furious comeback and dropped their first game of the season to the Colts last week. The 49ers are getting back on track so it appears the Seahawks are back in a dog fight for the NFC West. They get to return home this weekend, a place where no one has come close to them so far this season. Tennessee might have been game, but with Jake Locker hurt, Ryan Fitzpatrick will do what he does best, throw interceptions and turn the ball over.

Prediction: Seattle 35, Tennessee 16

Arizona (3-2) at San Francisco (3-2), San Francisco favored by 11

The last two weeks the 49ers have been blowing out their opponents and getting some of their mojo back. What has been really good to see is the play of the defense. The defense went through a long stretch there where they couldn't slow down anyone. But in the last few weeks, even playing without Aldon Smith or Patrick Willis, they have looked tremendous. I am still concerned about the offense. The running game has gotten going the last two weeks, but the passing game was basically non-existent against Houston. Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham can't get back fast enough. Colin Kaepernick hasn't been able to run the read option with much success, so he hasn't looked nearly as dynamic this season. The Cardinals won't be a cake walk, and their defense is coming off a tremendous performance. The 49ers corners will have their work cut out for them against Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. The 49ers run defense has been stingy the last two weeks, so the Cardinals only hope is the passing game clicks. Carson Palmer is a statue in the pocket, so the defense should be able to get a lot of pressure on him. I didn't take the Niners to cover last weekend and regretted it, so going to take the leap of faith this weekend.

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Arizona 14

New Orleans (5-0) at New England (4-1), New England favored by 2 1/2

Tom Brady is finally starting to get some of his weapons back. His favorite toy, Gronk, is set to make his debut on Sunday against the Saints. What would also help Brady is if Stevan Ridley returned and actually made himself useful for the first time this season. Sorry, letting some of my fantasy football hate get through. The Saints defense continues to impress and after five games can no longer be considered a fluke. I don't expect Brady and Gronk to instantly hit it off, Gronk has missed far too much time. The other question is, will Gronk even remain healthy once he is back on the field? This should be a very competitive, back and forth game, and a chance to watch two of the best quarterbacks go at it in Brady and Drew Brees. I feel like the Saints have to lose sometime and with this game being in New England, this is the week it will happen.

Prediction: New England 27, New Orleans 24

Washington (1-3) at Dallas (2-3), Dallas favored by 5 1/2

Despite being 1-3, if the Eagles lose to Tampa on Sunday, the Skins would be all alone in first place in the NFC East at 2-3. It makes those people that were declaring the Skins season over at 0-3 (cough, Chris Russell, cough) look pretty foolish. Now any Skins fan watching the Cowboys last weekend had to be terrified at the thought of the Skins secondary trying to slow down the Cowboys passing attack. Tony Romo played one of the best games of his life though, that isn't something that he can do every single week. For the Redskins to win this game, it is quite simple. They have to get Alfred Morris going right away and ride him throughout. They cannot fall into another hole in the first half and have to try to pass their way out of it. They have trailed so much this season that it has been difficult for Morris to ever be allowed to get going. Hopefully, the bye week served Robert Griffin well, and he will look a little more comfortable out there. I want to pick the Skins, but I don't think the defense has the effort needed in them to win this game. I think both Dez Bryant and Jason Witten will have monster games. If the Cowboys try to give DeMarco Murray enough touches, I think he can find success running on the Skins defense. Also, with Washington having swept Dallas last year, I think the law of averages means the Cowboys will get a win this time at home.

Prediction: Dallas 31, Washington 27


Monday, October 14

Indianapolis (4-1) at San Diego (2-3), Indianapolis favored by 1

The Colts are getting tons of love everywhere after knocking off the Seahawks last Sunday. It was definitely an impressive win, made even more impressive by the comeback they pulled off. With the Texans struggling, the Colts appear poised to possibly run away with the AFC South. As for the Chargers, they are coming off a disappointing loss at Oakland. Philip Rivers once again passed for a ton of yards, but he fell victim to what had been his problem the last few years, committing too many turnovers. He is being asked to do a ton with Ryan Mathews constantly hurt and also his receiving corps battling injuries. For the Chargers to win, Rivers will have to play more like he was before the Oakland game. They will also need their line to step up and slow down Robert Mathis, who is having a beast year. I just have a feeling that the good Chargers will show up Monday night and pull off the upset.

Prediction: San Diego 28, Indianapolis 24


Last Week Against the Spread: 7-7
Overall Against the Spread: 37-36-4

Last Week Straight Up: 10-4
Overall Straight Up: 50-27

Cram Session - Week 5

Thursday, September 26

San Francisco (1-2) at St. Louis (1-2), San Francisco favored by 3

For the first time in the Jim Harbaugh era the 49ers are facing really adversity. They are under .500 for the first time since Harbaugh took over as a coach. They haven't just lost the last two weeks, they have been completely destroyed. The offense can do nothing, and is badly missing Michael Crabtree, and last week Vernon Davis. The defense hasn't played a good game in what seems like forever, even going back to last season's playoffs. Things aren't likely to get better either as their best defensive player, Aldon Smith will miss this game and possibly more while he is in rehab dealing with substance abuse issues. Also, their second best player, LB Patrick Willis is questionable with a groin injury. Now, they have to go on the road in a short week and beat the team that was their bugaboo last season, the St. Louis Rams. The 49ers could beat almost anyone last season, but in their two meetings with the Rams they tied and lost. They can't afford a loss tonight or I will go into full crisis mode. The Rams defense has been dreadful this season, and they were supposed to be the bright spot of the team. If the defense can't get it together, the Rams season will quickly fall apart as their offense just isn't good enough to be winning shootouts. San Francisco will win this game if they allow Frank Gore to get going and then when he does, stick with him. The Rams run defense is pretty awful and was just shredded by DeMarco Murray last week. The most frustrating aspect of Sunday's loss to the Colts was that the run game was working, and then offensive coordinator Greg Roman kept calling pass plays, which weren't working at all. I have no real confidence in my pick of the 49ers to win this game, but they're my team and I certainly won't pick the Rams to beat them.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, St. Louis 16


Games That Matter To Me

#14 Oklahoma (3-0) at #22 Notre Dame (3-1)

These two meeting this year isn't generating nearly the buzz of last year's meeting, but for Oklahoma you know they are amped up to try to gain revenge for their embarrassing loss from a season ago. This will the Irish's toughest opponent so far this year. Yes, tougher than Michigan who has appeared fraudtastic in the weeks since beating Notre Dame. Blake Bell is the Sooners new quarterback, but remains mostly unproven, as I don't consider playing well against Tulsa as proving anything. WR Sterling Shepherd and Bell seemed to develop an instant chemistry, with Shepherd hauling in 10 catches against Tulsa. Outside of his success against Tulsa, Shepherd and the rest of the Sooners offense has struggled throwing the ball so far this year. The Sooners lead back is Brennan Clay, but outside of a strong effort against West Virginia, he has also struggled. The Irish defense had their best game of the year last week against Michigan State. But how much of that was good defense, and how much was the fact that the Spartans stink on offense?

Now, how effective will the Irish offense be against a stout Sooners defense? The Irish nailed a huge run against Oklahoma last year in Norman and that set the tone for the game right away. However, this season, the Irish ground game has struggled as no running back has been able to grab the job by the horns and take control. QB Tommy Rees has mostly played well but he struggled mightily against a strong Spartans defense last week, and could face similar pressure and trouble against the Sooners. WR DaVaris Daniels did almost nothing last week after his breakout performance against Purdue the week before. His fellow wideout TJ Jones has also disappeared the last two weeks.

I have a hard time picturing the Irish beating Oklahoma two years in a row. The offense hasn't been consistent enough for me to believe that they will dominate Oklahoma's defense. Oklahoma is mostly a mystery on offense, but maybe Bell is the difference maker they need. The Irish defense controlled the line of scrimmage last year, but they haven't shown that type of push so far this season. I think the Sooners win a tough game and end Notre Dame's home winning streak.

Prediction: Oklahoma 28, Notre Dame 20


Top 10

#21 Ole Miss (3-0, 1-0) at #1 Alabama (3-0, 1-0)

The Rebels are coming into Tuscaloosa still high off of their drubbing of Texas in Austin. They have gotten an extra week of preparation and Nick Saban has to make sure his team doesn't take the Rebels lightly. Ole Miss has a dangerous offense, and one that is balanced. They have a premiere running back in Jeff Scott, who is averaging an absurd 9 yards per carry. Quarterback Bo Wallace is completing 64% of his passes and hasn't thrown an interception. The Bama defense has shown that they can be scored on in bunches, so unlike in past year's some of the pressure will be on the Bama offense. That means involving T.J. Yeldon who interestingly only had 7 carries last week in the win over Colorado State. Bama sometimes plays disinterested against lesser competition, but Saban will have his boys ready for this one. It still won't come easy though, the Rebels are too good on offense to not at least make it interesting.

Prediction: Alabama 34, Ole Miss 23

California (1-2, 0-0) at #2 Oregon (3-0, 0-0)

The Ducks kick off their Pac-12 schedule against a team whose defense will be the perfect match for them to continue to average over 60 points a game. Cal gives up 42 points a game, so maybe I should actually predict for Oregon to score 80+.

Prediction: Oregon 63, California 21

Wake Forest (2-2, 0-1) at #3 Clemson (3-0, 1-0)

Clemson struggled at NC State but was able to pull the victory and avoid a Clemson. We might just have to all deal with the fact that this is a new day for Clemson football. With the Demon Deacons coming to town, Clemson should have things much easier this Saturday. The Wake Forest offense couldn't put up many points against low level competition, so no chance they compete with the Tigers on Saturday.

Prediction: Clemson 38, Wake Forest 14

#23 Wisconsin (3-1, 1-0) at #4 Ohio State (4-0, 0-0)

It is refreshing to see some matchups between ranked teams this week after last week's awful schedule. This one will be contested under the lights. Wisconsin's record says they are 3-1 but had the officials not screwed them in Tempe, they would probably be 4-0. Wisconsin averages over 40 points a game and Ohio State 50, so this could be a shootout. The Buckeyes should be getting back starting QB Braxton Miller. There has been some talk of leaving in Kenny Guiton who has played so well in place of Miller, but all indications from Urban Meyer are that Miller is his guy. Guiton was very good, but Miller has also never lost a game as starting quarterback under Meyer, so its a wealth of riches for the Buckeyes at the quarterback position. The only Wisconsin can pull off the huge road upset is if Joel Stave plays above his head, and his running backs Melvin Gordon and James White continue their run of being unstoppable on the ground. Melvin in particular has been spectacular. His lowest rushing output in a game thus far this year is 140 yards and he did that on 9 carries. If this game was in Madison I might go upset, but the road atmosphere will be too tough for Wisconsin and Stave to handle.

Prediction: Ohio State 45, Wisconsin 27

#5 Stanford (3-0, 1-0) at Washington State (3-1, 1-0)

This game will actually be at CenturyLink Field, where the Seattle Seahawks play. Stanford raced out to a huge lead last week against Arizona State but nearly coughed it up after taking their foot off the gas too soon. I'm not entirely sold on the Cardinal and think this game has upset alert written all over it. Cougars coach Mike Leach is known for his offense but Washington State has a pretty good defense. They are only giving up 12 points a game this year, and I think they can frustrate Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan into some critical mistakes. While it won't be in their home stadium, the game will be in their home state, and that atmosphere will be an advantage for Washington State. Cougars quarterback Connor Halliday will have to play almost mistake free football, and avoid interceptions. He already has 8 of those through four games. It's boring picking favorites all the time, so I will go out on a limb and pick Washington State to pull off the shocker.

Prediction: Washington State 27, Stanford 24

#6 LSU (4-0, 1-0) at #9 Georgia (2-1, 1-0)

Almost every week, Georgia has a game that is tougher than the last. They got a bit of a respite last week with North Texas but this week they face a Top 10 team for the third time this season. I touched on it last week, but this Tigers team is unlike any we have seen in a few years. They can actually do some things on offense and have mostly been carried by that side of the ball, while their young defense gains experience. Last season at this time I never thought I would be writing that Zach Mettenberger is on par with Aaron Murray at quarterback but so far this year he has been. Offensively, these teams are about equal, but defensively, while young, I give the Tigers the edge over Georgia. I like their defense to force more mistakes out of the other teams offense and to ultimately be the difference as to why LSU remains unbeaten.

Prediction: LSU 37, Georgia 28

#8 Florida State (3-0, 1-0) at Boston College (2-1, 1-0)

Jameis Winston returns to ACC action where he already made a name for himself in his first ACC game against Pitt almost a month ago. Boston College has had two weeks to prepare for him, but with the way Winston has played so far, that probably means very little. Even if the Eagles can slow him down, they then have to try to score on a stout Seminoles defense. Florida State should continue to roll through the ACC, until they have the ultimate matchup with Clemson.

Prediction: Florida State 45, Boston College 17

#10 Texas A&M (3-1, 0-1) at Arkansas (3-1, 0-0)

It looked like the Razorbacks would be rolling into this game undefeated and with a confidence building win at Rutgers. However, they let a 24-7 second half lead slip away, and instead have to get right mentally for the Aggies coming to town. Arkansas will have to find some way to slow down the fast moving Aggies offense led by Johnny Manziel. This will be the Aggies first road trip, but Manziel has proved that playing away from home isn't an issue for him. The Aggies defense also finally stepped up and put in a good performance against SMU last week. Amazingly, the Aggies missed three extra point attempts last week, but I am going to bet against that trend continuing and predict they will do the impossible and make all their extra points against Arkansas!

Prediction: Texas A&M 35, Arkansas 21

Last Week: 11-0
Overall: 37-2