2015 March Madness (West and Midwest Regions) - Sweet 16 and Elite 8

Midwest Regional Semi-Final in Cleveland, OH

#7 Wichita State (30-4) vs. #3 Notre Dame (31-5)

The Shockers versus the Catholics will be a good old fashioned defense versus offense battle. Wichita State ranked 9th in the nation in points allowed per game, while the Irish ranked 12th in points scored, averaging almost 80 per game. The Shockers slipped past Indiana, and then had one of the most satisfying wins in program history when they crushed Kansas in the Third Round. Guard Ron Baker led the Shockers in scoring during the regular season, but it was fellow guard Fred Van Vleet that carried the load last weekend. Fellow guard Tekele Cotton had an unexpected impact in the game against Kansas, scoring 19 points against the Jayhawks. The Shockers leading rebounder this season was F Darius Carter, who averaged just a little over 5 boards a game.

That lack of size could present problems for the Shockers tonight. Notre Dame ranks low in rebounds but that is partially because they shot the ball so well. G-F Pat Connaughton averaged 7.4 rebounds per game and F Zach Auguste averages almost 7 rebounds per game. The best player on the floor will be Irish guard Jerian Grant. Grant leads Notre Dame in scoring and assists, and has been held to single digit scoring just twice this season. The Irish were a bad team this year, mostly due to Grant's absence and their quick turnaround is evidence of how important he is to the team. The Irish got a huge lift from G Steve Vasturia in their overtime win over Butler, after he was non-existent in their close win over Northeastern. The Shockers will need to keep a close eye on G Demetrius Jackson, who shoots over 40% from three point range.

Ultimately, I expect Wichita State's defense to keep this game low scoring, but the Irish have been battle tested all season long and will be ready to win an ugly game. The Shockers will have a bit of a letdown after the Kansas game, and while I think they will be ready to play, I think energy wise they will be down from the fire we saw last Sunday. Grant will be prove to be the difference maker, making some key shots late to key the Irish win.

Prediction: Notre Dame 62, Wichita State 58


West Regional Semi-Final in Los Angeles, CA

#4 North Carolina (26-11) vs. #1 Wisconsin (33-3)

Wisconsin breezed past Coastal Carolina and then made a late charge to push past Oregon to reach the Sweet 16. National Player of the Year front-runner F Frank "The Tank" Kaminsky dominated Coastal, and while not as dominant against the Ducks, was a key force in the Badgers victory. It will be fun watching Kaminsky go up against the size that North Carolina will throw at him. Unfortunately for the Heels they might be missing one key player, as Kennedy Meeks is battling an ankle injury he suffered in the Third Round win over Arkansas last Saturday. Meeks presence is vital to Carolina's hopes of springing the upset, even if he just serves the role of another body that can get physical and afford to foul Kaminsky.

Kaminsky receives all the attention but F Sam Dekker is another key cog in the Badgers machine. The Heels will need to try to force Dekker outside of the lane, as he shoots just 30% from three point land. When he is able to penetrate he is deadly, hitting over 50% of his shots. Sophomore F Nigel Hayes has really come on in recent weeks for Wisconsin, providing more scoring on the offensive end, and remaining a presence for opponents to deal with on the block. Another dangerous offensive player for Wisconsin is G Bronson Koenig, who shoots over 40% from three point range. Koenig has really stepped up his game since having to replace the injured Traevon Jackson. There is a slight chance that Jackson plays in this game, but even if he does, he will be so rusty that I wouldn't expect him to make much of a difference. This isn't old school Wisconsin, they have plenty of offensive talent and don't get by just on defense.

The Heels nearly blew a 16 point lead against Harvard before holding on to a victory and then beat Arkansas in a track meet in the Third Round. Marcus Paige was the difference in that game in the second half for Carolina, while freshman Justin Jackson continues to shoot better and better as the year has rolled on. Jackson is a much less refined version of Kaminsky, a taller player that can play like a guard and has the shot to back it up. Whether Meeks plays or not, Joel James should see heavy minutes off the bench, as I expect Roy Williams to try all sorts of defenders and tactics on Kaminsky. That means extra pressure on guards Paige, Nate Britt and Joel Berry to try to slow down Dekker and Koenig. Forwards Brice Johnson and J.P. Tokoto will be relied on heavily to guard Kaminsky.

Carolina is better offensively than Wisconsin, but the Badgers have the major edge defensively. If I am Carolina I let Kaminsky get his and focus on controlling Dekker, Hayes and Koenig as much as possible. Unfortunately, I don't think the Heels have the defensive chops necessary to pull off the upset. They also are way too turnover prone, which comes with their fast break style. Against lesser teams Carolina can overcome those turnovers but the Badgers are too good.

Prediction: Wisconsin 68, North Carolina 62


Midwest Regional Semi-Final in Cleveland, OH

#5 West Virginia (25-9) vs. #1 Kentucky (36-0)

The Mountaineers took out Bobby Hurley and the Buffalo Bulls, and then dispatched the Maryland Terrapins with their press to reach the Sweet 16. For Kentucky, they continued steamrolling through the competition, blowing out Hampton, then letting Cincinnati hang around for a bit, before demolishing them. The Mountaineers will need a perfect game to pull off the upset tonight. The Mountaineers like to push the ball and against the Wildcats defense that has proven ineffective this season.

West Virginia's leading scorer this season is G Juwan Staten. Staten couldn't buy a bucket against the Terps and was picked up by the rest of the Mountaineer starters. F Devin Williams has really come on strong recently for West Virginia but he will face a whole new set of challenges playing against guys like Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns. The Mountaineers are a horrific three point shooting team, so they will be forced to have to overpower Kentucky inside to try to score.

Kentucky has amazing depth and it has often been said that their backups could be their own Top 25 team. Ten Wildcats players averaged double digits in minutes per game. The Harrison twins, Andrew and Aaron, along with freshman guard Devin Booker are the facilitators on offense. Booker has been struggling as of late though, but when you have nine other guys that can pick up the slack, no one really notices.

Mountaineers guard Daxter Miles Jr. may be predicting a win but I doubt anyone else is. I think West Virginia can keep the game interesting for a bit with their defensive pressure, but Kentucky will do what they always do, eventually impose their will and run away with the game. The final score will make the game appear closer than it actually was.

Prediction: Kentucky 70, West Virginia 60


West Regional Semi-Final in Los Angeles, CA

#6 Xavier (23-13) vs. #2 Arizona (33-3)

The Musketeers crushed Mississippi, and then held off Cinderella Georgia State to punch their ticket to the Sweet 16 as the Big East's lone representative. Arizona remains dominant and along with Wisconsin and Duke, appear to be the best bets to potentially knock off Kentucky.

Arizona's demolition of Ohio State in the Third Round was even more impressive considering freshman sensation Stanley Johnson played miserably. He scored just 4 points on 1 of 12 shooting. I expect Johnson to play much better tonight, especially if dork nerd Matt Stainbrook guards him at times. Stainbrook would have the height advantage but Johnson would easily have the athleticism advantage. The Wildcats other big is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson as Sean Miller's team has just the right mix of size and athleticism. The Wildcats second leading score Brandon Ashley was also quiet against Ohio State, and the struggles of Johnson and Ashley gave G T.J. McConnell a chance to shine.

Dee Davis will be charged with trying to slow down McConnell for Xavier. Forward Trevon Bluiett was non existent in the first two rounds for Xavier but for them to have any chance in this game, he will have to have one of his better games of the season, something I don't see happening. G Miles Davis and F Jalen Reynolds round out the Musketeers starting five, solid players in their own right, but nowhere near the level of players Xavier has.

This matchup appears to be the most lopsided of the eight Sweet 16 games. The level of competition for Xavier from what they faced in the first two rounds, to what they will face tonight will be overwhelming. I expect Johnson and Ashley to bounce back after tough games and for the Wildcats to cruise to victory.

Prediction: Arizona 82, Xavier 66

Kentucky will continue their undefeated run on Saturday when they outlast Notre Dame in a high scoring game. Wisconsin and Arizona meet in a rematch of last year's Elite 8, and once again Wisconsin will squeak by the Wildcats to make their second straight Final Four, and set up a Final Four rematch with the Cats. 

2015 March Madness - West Region (First Weekend)

Best Game: #7 VCU vs. #10 Ohio State

This matchup will come down to how well the Rams Havoc can contain the Buckeyes do everything guard D'Angelo Russell. Russell lead Ohio State in scoring, rebounding and was second on the team in assists. It's a shame that Briante Weber is lost for the season for VCU because watching him guard Russell would have been a lot of fun. When you look at statistics the Buckeyes outrank VCU in most major categories and it isn't even close. Ohio State shot close to 50% this year while VCU shot 42%. Treveon Graham is the Rams go to player offensively and also leads the Rams in rebounding. The Rams have the momentum of winning the A-10 Tournament on their side, but I am skeptical about their ability to handle Russell, even with their Havoc defense. 


Player to Watch: Wisconsin forward Frank Kaminsky

Kaminsky plays like a guard trapped in a large man's body. He averaged 8 rebounds per game and shot a spectacular 55% from the field. That high field goal percentage isn't just the 7-footer hanging out in the lane and taking easy shots. He also shot almost 40% from three point range this year. He is the favorite to win the Wooden award as the best player in the country, and is the reason why I believe that Wisconsin is one of the few teams with a real chance to take down Kentucky in this tournament.


Best Potential Game: #4 North Carolina vs. #5 Arkansas

If you like track meet type games, then you should be hoping that both of these teams win in the Second Round and set up this game in the final 32. Both teams averaged almost 80 points per game this season, and because of their frenetic pace, each team gives up about 70 points per game. Where Carolina would have a massive advantage is their size and rebounding ability. Carolina is also battle tested, having played 20 of their 35 games against Tournament teams this year, while Arkansas played just 10 games against Tournament teams this year, compounded by the fact that they play in the significantly weaker SEC. F Bobby Portis and G Michael Qualls are the Razorbacks two best players, while Carolina features a more balanced offensive attack. Qualls and Portis are the only Razorbacks that average double figures in scoring, while Carolina has four players in double figures, G Marcus Paige, F Brice Johnson, F Kennedy Meeks, and G-F Justin Jackson. J.P. Tokoto is another threat to score the ball for Carolina. There are a lot of complaints about the level of play in college basketball right now, but if these two teams match up, it will showcase college basketball at its finest.


Lowest Seed to Make It Through the Weekend: #14 Georgia State

If my prediction comes true then Georgia State coach Ron Hunter might tear both his Achilles. Hunter injured his Achilles celebrating the Panthers win last Sunday, earning them an NCAA Tournament berth. The Panthers have excellent guard play behind Ryan Harrow and Hunter's son, R.J. Hunter. The Panthers will need those two to hit outside shots to mitigate the size advantage Baylor will have over them. If the Panthers beat Baylor, they could then possibly face Xavier in Round Three, a team that wouldn't present the size troubles that Baylor will.

Predictions

First Round

#11 BYU over #11 Mississippi 


Second Round

#1 Wisconsin over #16 Coastal Carolina

#8 Oregon over #9 Oklahoma State

#5 Arkansas over #12 Wofford

#4 North Carolina over #13 Harvard

#6 Xavier over #11 BYU

#14 Georgia State over #3 Baylor

#10 Ohio State over #7 VCU

#2 Arizona over #15 Texas Southern


Third Round

#1 Wisconsin over #8 Oregon

#4 North Carolina over #5 Arkansas

#14 Georgia State over #6 Xavier

#2 Arizona over #10 Ohio State

2013 March Madness - East Region (First Weekend)

Best Game: #5 Cincinnati vs. #12 Harvard

The 5/12 upset has become one of the main talking points when people go to fill out their brackets. However, in recent seasons, while the talk hasn't faded, I feel like the instances of the 12 beating the 5 have gone down. That hasn't stopped people from immediately pegging this game as an easy pick for an upset. Harvard knocked off New Mexico last season as a 14 seed and is even better this year. Cincinnati had a good season but not many people have much respect for the AAC. Harvard plays great team basketball and doesn't have very many weaknesses. But one are where the Bearcats could overwhelm them is inside. Despite not having much more size than Harvard, the Bearcats ranked 106th in the nation in rebounds per game, while Harvard ranked 207th. Most of Cincinnati's offensive production comes form guard Sean Kilpatrick, who averaged 20 points per game. If Kilpatrick plays within the offense and doesn't try to force too many things, the Bearcats could wear down the Crimson. Harvard's best player is Ivy league player of the year Wesley Saunders. Saunders averaged 14 points per game but has been held in single digits scoring in three of his last five games. For Harvard to pull off the upset, Saunders will have to get back to being the scorer he was for most of the season.


Player to Watch: Iowa State guard DeAndre Kane

Kane is an exciting, fill up the box score type of player. I feel like anytime I saw Iowa State games or highlights this season, Kane's name was constantly being called and usually for only positive reasons. He is a high energy player that brings up the level of play of his teammates. Kane logs heavy minutes and along with F Melvin Ejim, and F Georges Niang gives the Cyclones of the best trios of scorers in the tournament.


Best Potential Game: #3 Iowa State vs. #6 North Carolina

This would not be a game for the faint of heart as both of these teams like to push the tempo and attempt to outscore their opponents. Both teams have good size, great guard play, and a matchup between these two teams could be the game of the tournament. Both teams are filled with star power, the Cyclones have Kane, Ejim, Dustin Hogue, and Niang, while the Heels have Marcus Paige, James Michael McAdoo, Brice Johnson, Leslie McDonald, and J.P. Tokoto. For the Heels to be able to pull the upset Paige will have to figure out a way to play strong basketball for two halves, as opposed to just the second half, which has been a habit of his for a while.


Lowest Seed to Make It Through the Weekend: #7 Connecticut

I'm predicting almost no upsets in this region which means there will probably be a ton of them. However, if things go the way I expect them to, the only true surprise to emerge out of the first weekend in the East will be the Connecticut Huskies. Their matchup against St. Joseph's will be a tough one but if they can get past them, I really like them going up against former Big East conference mate Villanova. The Wildcats have an impressive record but remained largely under the radar all season. When they did face a tougher team, such as Creighton, they were blown out on each occasion by the Blue Jays. Guard play is especially critical in March and that is where the Huskies will have a distinct advantage with all everything player Shabazz Napier.


Second Round

#1 Virginia over #16 Coastal Carolina

#8 Memphis over #9 George Washington

#5 Cincinnati over #12 Harvard

#4 Michigan State over #13 Delaware

#6 North Carolina over #11 Providence

#3 Iowa State over #14 North Carolina Central

#7 Connecticut over #10 Saint Joseph's

#2 Villanova over #15 Milwaukee


Third Round

#1 Virginia over #8 Memphis

#4 Michigan State over #5 Cincinnati

#3 Iowa State over #6 North Carolina

#7 Connecticut over #2 Villanova

2013 March Madness - South Region (First Weekend)

The South is arguably the most star studded and toughest of the four regions in the NCAA Tournament. Many of the schools have Final Four pedigree, including new media darling, #5 seed VCU. My favorite team, the North Carolina Tar Heels were unfairly slotted as an 8 seed and because of that, would draw Kansas in the Third Round if the Heels can get past Villanova. Kansas and Bill Self are 2-0 against Roy Williams in the NCAA Tournament, including knocking out Carolina in the Elite Eight last season. The region also includes Player of the Year candidates, like Michigan guard Trey Burke and Georgetown forward Otto Porter. Come Sunday, I suspect that the South region will be most responsible for people's busted brackets.


Best Game: #2 Georgetown vs. #15 Florida Gulf Coast

Yes, I think this matchup will be the best game in the Second Round in the South. Florida Gulf Coast already beat a 2 seed once this season, back in November when they knocked off Miami. Florida Gulf Coast ranks in the Top 100 in scoring (49th), rebounds (87th), assists (92nd) and field goal percentage (49th). Their best player is senior guard Sherwood Brown, who at 6'4 also led the Eagles in rebounds. The job of trying to slow down Otto Porter will likely go to Chase Fieler, who for whatever reason doesn't rebound well, but does a good job at blocking shots. Porter has been lauded all season long for his amazing play. He does almost everything well, he can play inside, hit his shots from outside, including three point land, and plays tough defense. The Hoyas other main scoring threats are Markel Starks and Greg Whittington. The only chance the Eagles will have to pull the upset is if they can contain Porter. The Hoyas size will pose a problem, but the Canes are also a big team and the Eagles were able to defeat them. I just feel this Hoyas team is overrated, and in recent years have been prone to laying eggs in the tournament. The quickness of the Eagles guards will give the Hoyas defense fits and and produce the biggest shocker of this year's tournament.

Player to Watch: North Carolina guard P.J. Hairston

You can probably argue that this is a homer pick and you might be right. As I mentioned above the South region is filled with star power, but one of the hottest players in the game right now is P.J. Hairston. If you caught the ACC Tournament final, you saw Hairston put on a shooting clinic, especially from three point land. Ever since Hairston earned consistent minutes he has been the Heels most dangerous player. If Carolina is to survive this weekend, and pull off a major upset of Kansas, Hairston will have to continue to play at that high level.

Best Potential Game: #1 Kansas vs. #8 North Carolina

This is one of those games the committee just "happens" to set up. Carolina being an 8 seed with an RPI of 17 makes no sense, but maybe they just really wanted to see Roy vs. Kansas, Part 3. Carolina fans still have a bitter taste in their mouths from last year's Elite Eight loss to the Jayhawks. Had Kendall Marshall played myself and many others believe that Carolina would have won that game. Save for one poor week, the Jayhawks have been one of the best teams in the country. They are led by outstanding freshman guard Ben McLemore, and big man Jeff Withey. It would be fun to watch Withey do battle with James Michael McAdoo, and the contrast of Jayhawks senior guard Elijah Johnsons, versus Carolina freshman Marcus Paige. These two teams both play a run and gun style, so the points would pour in. Add in the whole revenge element, and two storied programs and you have all the makings of a great game.

Lowest Seed to Make It Through Weekend: #10 Oklahoma

Lon Kruger has quietly done a quality job of rebuilding the Sooner program after the mess Dookie Jeff Capel left them in. The Sooners did have some puzzling losses, blowing a big lead to Texas and losing at TCU, but did knock off Kansas. If the Sooners get to the Sweet Sixteen it will be on the back of senior forward Romero Osby. I like the Sooners to beat the Aztecs from the overrated Mountain West, and then benefit from Florida Gulf Coast's upset of Georgetown and pick up a win against the Eagles. So basically a fortunate draw will help Oklahoma this week.


Predictions

Second Round

#1 Kansas over #16 Western Kentucky

#8 North Carolina over #9 Villanova

#5 VCU over #12 Akron

#4 Michigan over #13 South Dakota State

#6 UCLA over #11 Minnesota

#3 Florida over #14 Northwestern State

#10 Oklahoma over #7 San Diego State

#15 Florida Gulf Coast over #2 Georgetown


Third Round 

#8 North Carolina over #1 Kansas

#4 Michigan over #5 VCU

#3 Florida over #6 UCLA

#10 Oklahoma over #15 Florida Gulf Coast

2013 ACC Tournament Preview

This is the last ACC Tournament before the conference balloons to 15 teams next year with the additions of Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Notre Dame. This tournament has mostly been dominated by Duke over the last 15 years, but this season things are a bit different. The Miami Hurricanes, led by former George Mason coach Jim Larranaga captured their first ever regular season ACC title. Now they enter the Tournament as the hunted. Joining them as contenders to cut down the nets on Sunday are of course, Duke, as well as North Carolina, and over-hyped preseason favorite, North Carolina State. Last year's winners Florida State have suffered through a mediocre year, and will be gone by Friday.


1. Miami (24-6, 15-3)

The Hurricanes surprised everyone by starting off the conference season 13-0. They stomped Duke at home, beat North Carolina by double digits twice and looked like the clear best team in the conference. But towards the end of the season they began to fade a bit, and enter the ACC Tournament, losers of three of their last five, including an embarrassing home loss to lowly Georgia Tech. Larranaga has the Canes playing the type of ball Mason fans grew to love. Fluid offense, mixed with a stout defense.

Sophomore point guard Shane Larkin too a massive leap this season. He doubled his freshman numbers almost across the board and averaged a very high 36 minutes per game. Larkin doesn't have many flaws in his game. He is an excellent shooter and passer and does a great job feeding his one of his big guys, Kenny Kadji. Kadji had double doubles in his last three games, and with Larkin gives Miami one of the best interior and exterior attacks in college basketball. It has been a lost season for center Reggie Johnson. He was injured for most of it, and has trouble getting back into flow of the rotation. He still is a strong rebounder though, and when him and Kadji are together, that is the Hurricanes at their toughest on defense. Miami really only struggles because their offense is inconsistent. If that hits them this weekend, they will be upset.


2. Duke (27-4, 14-4)

Duke is coming into this weekend brimming with confidence, following a dominating win at North Carolina. That confidence also comes from the fact they are unbeaten with Ryan Kelly in the lineup. Duke's offense is filled with weapons like Kelly and their leading scorers, Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry. If Curry catches fire from three like he is capable of, then as you saw last Saturday, Duke is next to impossible to beat. Like the Hurricanes, they have guards who can shoot, as Quinn Cook complements Curry well on the wing. Where Duke is weak is that they are careless with the ball and turn it over quite a bit. They also don't have much depth, so its basically their starters playing well or bust. The return of Kelly helps their defense tremendously, as without him, Plumlee had no one to deflect pressure off of inside. I used to think Kelly was overrated, but seeing him these last few games, it is quite clear how much he improves Duke. Despite being the second seed, and as much I hate to say it, Duke is the favorites to win this weekend.


3.  North Carolina (22-9, 12-6)

Carolina was feeling pretty good about themselves, and then last Saturday happened. Looking for a silver lining, it might be a good thing. It definitely tempered the fans expectations for this team, and hopefully it made the players realize that they still have to prove themselves. One player that fits that mold and who is key to Carolina's chances this weekend are freshman point guard Marcus Paige. Paige hasn't reminded Carolina fans of Kendall Marshall, but on the bright side he hasn't brought back nightmares of Larry Drew II. What Paige really needs to work on is decision making and shooting. Poor decision making has led to him turning it over, especially the last two games where had 13 turnovers. The Heels have no shortage of offensive firepower with Reggie Bullock, PJ Hairston, and James Michael McAdoo. McAdoo is another inconsistent player, who shows flashes of brilliance but other times leaves you thinking how much better he could be. He is another guy that turns it over way too much, although turnovers almost seem to be a given with Roy Williams uptempo offense. There is a strong chance Carolina could get a third shot at Duke, but I'm not sure that is a good thing or a bad thing. It will be interesting to see which Heels team shows up in this tournament.


5. North Carolina State (22-9, 11-7)

Foolishly, the media picked the Wolfpack to be ACC champions. To the surprise of no one, outside of homer NC State fans, the Wolfpack didn't live up to the hype. They did manage to beat Duke and UNC at home, but lost some puzzling games and finished in the middle of the pack in the ACC. With that kind of opening you might be wondering why I am even previewing the Wolfpack. They do have plenty of talent, and the way the draw is set up, I think they are the sleeper team this weekend. One problem NC State had is that C.J. Leslie and and Richard Howell had to do too much. Leslie and Howell were the Wolfpack's leading scorers and rebounders. They didn't get their rebounding from many other but they have a very balanced offense, where scoring can come from almost anywhere. Lorenzo Brown, is a terrific point guard, who averaged 12 points per game, and also 7 assists. He is also very smart with the ball, averaging only 1 turnover per game. Scott Wood and T.J. Warren also scored in double figures. If these guys can all play cohesively, that is when the Wolfpack flash the potential people saw in them. The success they find or don't find this weekend will come down to the type of defense they play. They are going to have to play their best defense of the season to slow down the premiere offenses they could face this weekend.


First Round

#9 Georgia Tech over #8 Boston College
#5 North Carolina State over #12 Virginia Tech
#7 Maryland over #10 Wake Forest
#6 Florida State over #11 Clemson

Quarter-Finals

#1 Miami over #9 Georgia Tech
#5 North Carolina State over #4 Virginia
#2 Duke over #7 Maryland
#3 North Carolina over #6 Florida State

Semi-Finals

#5 North Carolina State over #1 Miami
#2 Duke over #3 North Carolina

Finals

#2 Duke over #5 North Carolina State


I believe the First Round will be mostly chalk, as well as the Quarter-Finals, with the slight upset being NC State over Virginia. If Virginia does lose right away that will probably kill their NCAA Tournament chances. Carolina having to beat Florida State three times makes me a little nervous, but still expect them to win. In the Semi-Finals, I think Miami's recent struggles will continue and show against NC State, who came oh so close to beating Miami in the regular season. I wish the third time would be the charm for Carolina against Duke but I think the Blue Devils are too talented. I also worry that this game won't happen, as it seems like almost every time these two seem headed for a collision in this tournament, some sort of upset happens. In the championship game, I expect an offensive showcase between NC State and Duke but Duke pulling out away late to win the tournament and ensure themselves a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. Yuck.

The Alley-Oop

Top 10

Saturday, March 9

#3 Duke (26-4, 13-4) at North Carolina (22-8, 12-5)

The Tar Heels are one of the hottest teams in the country. Following their dominating victory at Maryland on Wednesday, the Heels have now won six in a row and have gone from bubble team, to a team that could make some noise in the NCAA Tournament. The hot run is mostly being attributed to a shift in philosophy by coach Roy Williams. Williams shifted his lineup and is now starting four guards. PJ Hairston and Reggie Bullock have been on fire, and are a major reason for Carolina's recent success. Doubters and haters like to point to the fact that the six straight wins haven't come against a ranked team. To that I say, Carolina doesn't control the schedule, they can only play the teams in front of them, and they have been playing them very well.

Duke is feeling rejuvenated because of the return of senior Ryan Kelly from injury last week. The mouth breather had an impressive return against Miami, pouring in a career high 36 points. Blue Devils fans like to point out that Duke hasn't lost with Kelly in the lineup all season. They were able to defeat Carolina in the first matchup without him, and also overcame being mostly outplayed the entire game. In the first game, Mason Plumlee and the sometimes overlooked Quinn Cook gave the Heels fits. The Heels received little from James Michael McAdoo, and he will be limited in this game, as he battles a bulging disc in his back.

This game already has a ton of juice behind it being the best rivalry in college basketball. However, Carolina will have a little extra motivation. A win against Duke, especially with Kelly playing can quiet the critics and prove that Carolina has vastly improved in the last month and is a burgeoning contender. I expect the Dean Dome to being rocking all night long, and for this game to enter as the latest classic in a rivalry with many of them. Go Heels, beat Duke.

Prediction: North Carolina 77, Duke 75

#4 Kansas (26-4, 14-3) at Baylor (17-13, 8-9)

Since their three game losing streak, the Jayhawks have been on fire and are back in the discussion for a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. Baylor is having a disappointing season and has seen their NCAA Tournament bubble burst.

Prediction: Kansas 67, Baylor 57

#17 Syracuse (23-7, 11-6) at #5 Georgetown (23-5, 13-4)

This is the last time these two rivals will meet as conference foes, as Syracuse heads to the ACC. The Hoyas 11 game winning streak came to an end at the hands of Villanova, while the Cuse halted a three game losing streak against DePaul. The Hoyas shocked everyone by winning at the Carrier Dome a few weeks ago, as Otto Porter played out of his mind. I think the Orange will return the favor in this game.

Prediction: Syracuse 59, Georgetown 58


Clemson (13-16, 5-12) at #6 Miami (23-6, 14-3)

The Canes are stumbling to the finish line, losing two straight, including a mystifying home loss to awful Georgia Tech on Wednesday. They can still win the ACC outright with a win at home against Clemson. If they drop this game, it might be time to panic in Coral Gables.

Prediction: Miami 68, Clemson 55

#24 Notre Dame (23-7, 11-6) at #8 Louisville (25-5, 13-4)

Whenever these two get together close games or overtime seem inevitable. Last time they met up, it took five overtimes to settle it before the Irish escaped with a victory. The Cardinals have been on fire since that game and will be looking for revenge. Former Patriot Luke Hancock has seemed to finally start settling in and showing some of the game that made Mason fans fall in love with him.

Prediction: Louisville 66, Notre Dame 61

#9 Kansas State (25-5, 14-3) at #13 Oklahoma State (22-7, 12-5)

The Wildcats haven't received much attention this year, but here they are in the top 10. Their coach Bruce Weber was mostly lambasted when he was named Kansas State's coach but so far it has looked like the right move. Oklahoma State is coming off a butt whooping in Iowa State, but should feel more comfortable in the confines of their home gym.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 73, Kansas State 70


Sunday, March 10

#2 Indiana (25-5, 13-4) at #7 Michigan (25-5, 12-5)

The Hoosiers are looking shaky as of late and have me questioning them as my pick to cut down the nets in April. The Wolverines have been a little shaky as well so I am not sure they are the team to take advantage of Indiana right now. Despite their loss to Ohio State on senior night, the Hoosiers can still win their first outright Big Ten regular season title in ten years with a win. This game is filled with star power. For the Hoosiers you have Cody Zeller, Victor Oladipo and Christian Watford. Michigan's stars are Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Glenn Robinson III. Michigan will want revenge for an earlier season loss, but I think this Hoosiers team is too good to be denied that Big Ten t

Prediction: Indiana 74, Michigan 69

Northwestern (13-17, 4-13) at #10 Michigan State (23-7, 12-5)

Sparty will just try to get out of this one healthy as they head into the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments. They can earn a tie of the regular season Big Ten title if their hated rivals Michigan can knock off Indiana.

Prediction: Michigan State 64, Northwestern 50


Last Week: 10-0
Overall: 34-9

The Alley-Oop

Saturday, March 2

George Mason (17-12, 10-7) at Delaware (17-13, 12-5)

An up and down, and maddeningly inconsistent regular season comes to an end for Mason on Saturday. At times this team has shown flashes of being very good, but mostly, they have looked average at best. Mason will either be the third or fourth seed in the seven team CAA Tournament next weekend. If they beat Delaware they assure themselves of the three seed, but if they lose, they have to hope that James Madison loses at William and Mary, or Mason will drop the four seed. None of it really makes much of a difference to me, but it would be nice to go to Richmond with a win, rather than having lost two straight.

Mason was beaten from start to finish by Delaware at the Patriot Center last month, but currently is riding a 4-game road winning streak. Delaware has struggled a bit at home in conference, so a Mason upset is not out of the question. The Blue Hens may also not be as motivated since they are locked into a 2 seed in the CAA Tournament. In the first meeting three players basically teamed up to beat Mason, the Blue Hens guards Devon Saddler and Jarvis Threatt each scored more than 20 points. Some good news for Mason is the Hens will likely be without or at least see limited action from Josh Brinkley, who shot 6 for 7 in the first game against Mason.

For Mason, hopefully Sherrod Wright can have a good game and build some confidence going into Richmond. Mason's biggest problem all season is they can't seem to get multiple guys playing well at the same time. It was Wright for most of the year, then Jonathan Arledge, and lately Erik Copes. If all three could get going at the same time, the Patriots would be very dangerous.

Some signs make me want to pick Mason to win this game, but when I have picked them the last few weekends I have mostly felt foolish. So maybe I will have a reverse jinx effect and pick the Hens.

Prediction: Delaware 74, George Mason 68


Sunday, March 3

Florida State (15-13, 7-8) at North Carolina (20-8, 10-5)

The Tar Heels have shown some real strides the last few weeks and have me feeling much better about the team and season. I know they won't be cutting down any nets in March, but I don't think its out of the realm of possibilities for them to make the Sweet Sixteen. Freshman point guard Marcus Paige has shown some real improvement with his decision making and shot. Reggie Bullock has become one of my favorite players to watch, as I love the drive and intensity he brings to each game. I think next season could be a real good year, as Dexter Strickland is the only senior of consequence they lose. I really hope James Michael McAdoo realizes he could use another year to refine his game, but am not that hopeful he will return.

As for this game, the Seminoles have been mostly bad this season, and if Carolina plays even somewhat decent they should control this game and win. Michael Snaer and Okaro White are the players to watch on Florida State.

Prediction: North Carolina 80, Florida State 67


Top 10

Saturday, March 2

Iowa (18-10, 7-8) at #1 Indiana (24-4, 12-3)

For the third time this season the Hoosiers fell to an unranked team while being ranked first in the country. The Hawkeyes sit squarely on the bubble and a win at Indiana would pretty much guarantee them an NCAA Tournament berth. The Hawkeyes gave Indiana a fight in their first meeting, and I expect another sluggish battle in this game. Too much Victor Oladipo and Indiana offense will be the difference.

Prediction: Indiana 75, Iowa 65

Portland (11-19, 4-11) at #2 Gonzaga (28-2, 15-0)

Barring a major miracle Gonzaga should be ranked as the number one team in the country come Monday morning. It just doesn't seem quite right, especially since the Zags play in such an awful conference. I need to start becoming more familiar with them though, especially F Kelly Olynyk.

Prediction: Gonzaga 79, Portland 52

#5 Miami (23-4, 14-1) at #3 Duke (24-4, 11-4)

This is the game of the weekend in college basketball. The Hurricanes finally lost an ACC game, getting throttled at Wake Forest, but rebounded nicely at home against Virginia Tech. Duke will be desperate to play well and win this game after Miami handed them one of the more embarrassing losses in Coach K's career at Duke. Miami has been ugly offensively most of the season but couldn't miss against Duke, while the Blue Devils couldn't hit the broad side of a barn that night. Seth Curry shot 0-10, which you figure can't come anywhere close to happening again. The lack of Ryan Kelly was really apparent with how Kenny Kadji had his way inside in that first meeting. I expect this game to be much more competitive, with Duke having to play very well to squeak out with a victory.

Prediction: Duke 64, Miami 60

West Virginia (13-15, 6-9) at #6 Kansas (24-4, 12-3)

A terrible season in major college sports for West Virginia. The football team imploded after a strong start, and the basketball team will probably not even make the CBI or CIT. The Jayhawks are still in the race for a number one seed, and strengthened their case with a come from behind win at Iowa State earlier this week.

Prediction: Kansas 77, West Virginia 62

Rutgers (13-13, 4-11) at #7 Georgetown (22-4, 12-3)

Otto Porter is basically all you need to know about the Hoyas and this game. Otto has been willing the Hoyas to victories and the Hoyas haven't lost since January 19th to South Florida (wtf?). Rutgers record isn't good but they do play tough and are rarely blown out.

Prediction: Georgetown 65, Rutgers 56

Alabama (19-9, 11-4) at #8 Florida (22-5, 12-3)

The Gators are suffering from the road blues in the SEC, dropping their last two road games. They still remain dominant as ever at home, and have a big game here against second place Alabama. The Tide have won five of six, but that has come against the middle of the pack and dregs of the SEC. If this game were in Bama, I would give them a chance, but no SEC team has come close to touching the Gators in Gainesville.

Prediction: Florida 74, Alabama 59

#10 Louisville (23-5, 11-4) at #12 Syracuse (22-6, 10-5)

These two teams will eventually move this rivalry to the ACC, but this will be their last meeting as Big East teams. Cuse has been struggling lately, while Louisville has looked great since that 5 overtime classic against Notre Dame. The Cardinal will be looking for revenge, as the Orange defeated them in Louisivlle in January, when the Cardinal were ranked number one in the country. Forward Chane Behanan had the dunk of the season Wednesday night against DePaul. If you haven't seen that, YouTube it. The Hoyas proved that the Orange can be beaten at the Carrier Dome, and I think with Syracuse scuffling they are due for another home loss.

Prediction: Louisville 60, Syracuse 58


Sunday, March 3

#9 Michigan State (22-6, 11-4) at #4 Michigan (23-5, 10-5)

The Wolverines were shocked by Penn State Wednesday night, the Nittany Lions first win in the Big Ten all season. Perhaps, they were caught looking ahead to hosting the Spartans on Sunday. Michigan is desperate for revenge after being embarrassed in East Lansing, 75-52. The Spartans also come into this game licking their wounds, currently on a 2 game losing streak. Trey Burke was the only Wolverine that showed up in the first meeting. For Michigan to win this time, he will need some help from Glenn Robinson III and Tim Hardaway Jr. The Wolverines will also need to up the defensive intensity since Sparty shot almost 50% in the last game between these teams. This game should be  intense with the rivalry aspect and both teams desperate to get back on the right track.

Prediction: Michigan 71, Michigan State 65


Last Week: 8-3
Overall: 24-9

The Alley-Oop

Saturday, February 23

William & Mary (12-14, 6-9) at George Mason (16-11, 9-6)

 
Prediction: George Mason 65, William & Mary 64

NC State (19-7, 8-5) at North Carolina (18-8, 8-5)


Prediction: North Carolina 75, NC State 68


Top 10

Saturday, February 23

#2 Miami (22-3, 13-0) at Wake Forest (11-14, 4-9)


Prediction: Miami 57, Wake Forest 53

San Diego (13-15, 6-7) at #3 Gonzaga (26-2, 13-0)


Prediction: Gonzaga 78, San Diego 64

Arkansas (17-9, 8-5) at #5 Florida (21-4, 11-2)


Prediction: Florida 84, Arkansas 63

#11 Georgetown (20-4, 10-3) at #8 Syracuse (22-4, 10-3)


Prediction: Syracuse 67, Georgetown 65

TCU (10-16, 1-12) at #9 Kansas (22-4, 10-3)


Prediction: Kansas 90, TCU 58

Seton Hall (13-14, 2-12) at #10 Louisville (21-5, 9-4)


Prediction: Louisville 76, Seton Hall 64


Sunday, February 24

#4 Michigan State (22-5, 11-3) at #18 Ohio State (19-7, 9-5)


Prediction: Michigan State 63, Ohio State 61

Boston College (12-14, 4-9) at #6 Duke (23-3, 10-3)


Prediction: Duke 70,  Boston College 57

Illinois (20-8, 7-7) at #7 Michigan (22-4, 9-4)



Prediction: Michigan 68, Illinois 63


Last Week: 10-2
Overall: 16-6

The Alley-Oop

Pretty terrible slate of games in the Top 10 this weekend. However, that being said, this has been one of the most upset filled seasons I can remember, so it may turn out to be interesting. For George Mason, Saturday is Homecoming and I was lucky enough to score free tickets to the game, that should have me just a few rows away from the action. North Carolina will be looking for revenge against Virginia, and badly needs a quality win.



Saturday, February 16

Georgia State (13-14, 8-6) at George Mason (15-10)

An odd season for the Patriots continued last night, as they came from behind to defeat Drexel on the road. In years past, even when Mason had pretty good teams, those teams would struggle on the road, but were always dominant at home. This season, a mediocre Mason team hasn't been that great at home, but has played most of their best games on the road. They hope to put forth a strong home performance for Homecoming on Saturday against Georgia State.

Athletic guards have given Mason problems this year, so it could be a long day trying to guard the Panthers R.J. Hunter. Hunter has struggled with his shot in his last two games, shooting a combined 6 for 26. But he is also capable of exploding, like he did for 38 points against Old Dominion. The Panthers other dangerous guard is Devonta White. White has scored in double figures in every game this season but one. The transfer from Virginia Tech, Manny Atkins, is the Panthers leading rebounder and third leading scorer. The Panthers have no shortage of offensive firepower, so Mason will have to play some excellent defense.

The Patriots leading scorer Sherrod Wright has looked a little off in his last three games, and I think for Mason to win Saturday he will have to get back on track. Obviously, he will need some help, but Mason will need his firepower to keep up with the Panthers guards. It would also be nice if Eric Copes can continue his strong play, and limit the effectiveness of Atkins on the boards.

You never know which Mason team you will get from game to game, but hopefully a packed house for Homecoming will have the team mentally prepared and ready to put forth the performance necessary to earn a victory.

Prediction: George Mason 67, Georgia State 62

Virginia (18-6, 8-3) at North Carolina (16-8, 6-5)

The Heels have dropped their last two games, and now have to face a red hot Virginia team. The Cavaliers beat UNC in Charlottesville to start the ACC schedule, and have won seven of their last eight games. The catalyst for their strong player has been guard Joe Harris. Harris has gone for over 20 points in four of his last five games. For Carolina, James Michael McAdoo has not looked good in the last two games and needs to play much better on Saturday. His shoot has looked off and his dreadful free throw shooting really cost the Heels against Duke.

Carolina had their worst offensive performance of the season against Virginia, mostly because only Reggie Bullock bothered to show up. Point guard Marcus Paige had a terrible game, but has improved since then. He will have to find guys like Bullock, Dexter Strickland, and P.J. Hairston when they are open, and let everyone get into the flow of the offense.

While Virginia has been winning as of late, they have some really bad losses, so they can't rest on their laurels if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. Both of these teams will be desperate and this game should have a postseason level of intensity to it. It will really come down to whether or not the Heels can get their offense flowing, and defensively, not allow anyone else besides Harris to take over.

Prediction: North Carolina 61, Virginia 58


Top 10

Saturday, February 16

Purdue (12-13, 5-7) at #1 Indiana (22-3, 10-2)

Indiana still appears to be the favorite come March to cut down the nets. They recovered from the tough loss at Illinois, by earning an impressive road win at Ohio State. This is their second time playing Purdue this season, a team they beat by 37 on the road earlier this year. This will be a chance for some subs to get some garbage time minutes.

Prediction: Indiana 82, Purdue 64

#2 Duke (22-2, 9-2) at Maryland (17-7, 5-6)

Not many of these battles left with Maryland bolting for the Big Ten in 2014-2015. This is a huge game for the Terps, as a loss will basically mean that they have to win the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA's. Duke seems ripe for an upset, they barely survived at Boston College last weekend, and struggled for most of their win against North Carolina. Terps big man Alex Len has to have a big game, especially with Ryan Kelly absent. Len was too much of a non-factor in their meeting in Durham earlier this season. The Terps will also have to find a way to contain Duke guard Rasheed Sulaimon, who torched them for 25 points. Seems like a tall task, but Duke isn't as strong away from Cameron, and I think the desperate team will come out ahead.

Prediction: Maryland 66, Duke 64

#5 Gonzaga (24-2, 11-0) at San Francisco (11-14, 4-8)

Gonzaga had a statement win last night, thrashing St. Mary's on the road in the second half. They are basically biding their time until the NCAA Tournament starts. It is looking more and more like they may be a real factor in March.

Prediction: Gonzaga 72, San Francisco 57

#6 Syracuse (20-4, 8-3) at Seton Hall (13-12, 2-10)

The Orange are looking to bounce back after falling at UCONN earlier this week. For Seton Hall to have a chance at the upset, star player Fuquan Edwin will have to get some help. However, the Pirates have dropped six straight, so Syracuse shouldn't have much trouble.

Prediction: Syracuse 68, Seton Hall 58

#7 Florida (20-3, 10-1) at Auburn (9-15, 3-8)

The Gators put away any question who the class of the SEC was this year, with a home thrashing of Kentucky. At this point they are playing for seeding and hoping to try to move up to a number one seed. Their smallest margin of victory in all their SEC wins this year, is 14 points. That is incredible.

Prediction: Florida 75, Auburn 55

#8 Michigan State (21-4, 10-2) at Nebraska (12-13, 3-9)

The Spartans are feeling pretty good about themselves after their demolition of Michigan on Tuesday. Because of that, I think they are due for a letdown in this game in Lincoln and will have more trouble with the Huskers than people think. While they might struggle, G Keith Appling will make sure they walk away with the victory.

Prediction: Michigan State 65, Nebraska 59

Baylor (16-8, 7-4) at #10 Kansas State (19-5, 8-3)

These teams head into this game in opposite directions. Kansas State didn't bother showing up for their rivalry game at Kansas. Baylor has looked dominant in their last two wins, although those both came at home against poor opposition. Pierre Jackson is a terrific point guard for Baylor, while Rodney McGruder serves as the Wildcats mister everything. I expect this to be a close, exciting game.

Prediction: Kansas State 71, Baylor 70


Sunday, February 17

#3 Miami (20-3, 11-0) at Clemson (13-11, 5-7)

Miami just keeps on winning in the ACC, and if all goes according to plan, they should still be undefeated in conference when they take on Duke on March 2 at Cameron. They better not get caught looking that far ahead, as Clemson is a tough team to beat in Littlejohn Coliseum. The Tigers Devin Booker will be clanging and banging with the Canes Reggie Johnson. Miami has won three of their last four road games by single digits and I think they are due for an upset loss at some point.

Prediction: Clemson 67, Miami 65

Penn State (8-16, 0-12) at #4 Michigan (21-4, 8-4)

Poor Penn State will be the sacrificial lamb for the Wolverines to take out all their frustrations from their embarrassing loss at Michigan State, and heartbreaking loss at Wisconsin.

Prediction: Michigan 83, Penn State 58

#9 Arizona (20-4, 8-4) at Utah (11-13, 3-9)

The Wildcats have played very poorly their last two games, and were pushed around by Cal last night. The Utes could prove to be the cure to their woes, although they are coming off a nice home win against Arizona State.

Prediction: Arizona 75, Utah 69


Last Week: 6-4
Overall: 6-4

The Alley-Oop

College basketball is a sport that doesn't always get the attention and respect it should. Sure in March, every Joe schmoe starts caring becauase they want to win their bracket pool, but only real diehards tend to follow the regular season. Us diehards have been rewarded this year with one of the most topsy turvy seasons in history. Last night made it the fifth straight week the number one team in the country lost, as Indiana blew a late late at Illinois. The man pictured to the right, Cody Zeller, got caught napping on an inbound pass, and the Illini converted a layup as time expired. For those of you that are new to the site, each Friday I will pick my alma mater George Mason's game, my other favorite North Carolina's game, and the Top 10 action for the weekend. Let's get to it.



Saturday, February 9

Delaware (11-12, 6-4) at George Mason (14-9, 7-4)

It has been a frustrating season for George Mason fans. With VCU moving on to the Atlantic-10 and preseason conference favorites Drexel and Delaware struggling, Mason fans assumed that the team would shoot to the top of the standings. Instead, they currently sit in fourth place, behind teams like James Madison and Towson. Mason is a team with just one senior, and he never plays, so it is expected that there will be some inconsistency. That is why at points, Mason looks tremendous, like they did for 39 minutes against New Mexico early in the season, and other times, where they will look awful, like when they blew a 20 point lead at home to Drexel. A major problem has been trying to find a consistent scoring threat besides G Sherrod Wright.  However, in the last three games, F Jonathan Arledge has begun to emerge. If he can continue his growth, then Mason has a chance to make a run against a depleted CAA Tournament field. It is almost ridiculous how much the team relies on Wright, who as a guard is also the team's leading rebounder.

Delaware has been up and down all season. Early in the season they lost five straight, then recently won five straight, followed that up with a three game losing streak, then won three in a row, and were then soundly defeated by Towson in their last game. Where they have found consistency is in the play of G Devon Saddler and F Jamelle Hagins. Mason has struggled defensively against electric guards this season, so Saddler could be in for a huge game. Hagins also could potentially dominate on the boards, as he averaged over 10 rebounds per game. It will be Arledge's job to try to not let Hagins give the Blue Hens multiple shot opportunities.

The Patriot Center hasn't been the house of horrors for opposing teams this season as it normally is. The last home game for Mason was the aforementioned loss to Drexel. Although Mason is in fourth place, they would have the three seed right now as Towson is ineligible for this season's conference tournament. A win would put them ahead of James Madison based on tiebreaker and into the second seed. The question is, can Mason play a consistent brand of basketball for 40 minutes? You never know what team will show up, so predicting their games is very difficult. I will choose to be optimistic and believe that Mason will defeat Delaware, but make it nail biting as usual.

Prediction: George Mason 71, Delaware 67


Top 10

Saturday, February 9

Mississippi State (7-14, 2-7) at #2 Florida (18-3, 8-1)

The Gators had been steamrolling the SEC but then were steamrolled themselves by Arkansas on Tuesday night. That's bad news for Mississippi State, who is completely dreadful, and already lost earlier this year to Florida by 35 points. Expect seniors Kenny Boynton and Erik Murphy (no, not the guy from Entourage) to have big games.

Prediction: Florida 85, Mississippi State 59

#3 Michigan (21-2, 8-2) at Wisconsin (16-7, 7-3)

With both Indiana and Florida losing this week, the Wolverines could find themselves right back at number one with a victory at Wisconsin. Winning in Madison is no easy task but I feel that the Wolverines have too many offensive weapons for the offensively challenged Badgers to match their scoring. Guard Trey Burke is one of the best players in the country and along with Tim Hardaway Jr. makes up the best backcourt in the nation.
 
Prediction: Michigan 71, Wisconsin 64

#5 Kansas (19-3, 7-2) at Oklahoma (14-7, 5-4) 

The Jayhawks are desperate for a win following an embarrassing loss at TCU on Wednesday night. You have to think that Bill Self is kicking their ass in practice these last few days, and I would be stunned if the Jayhawks don't come out and play inspired ball.

Prediction: Kansas 74, Oklahoma 63

Loyola Marymount (8-15, 1-9) at #6 Gonzaga (22-2, 9-0)

Waiting for the day that the Zags will join a real conference. People are hyping up Gonzaga but hard to believe that this season will be any different than the others. They will beat up on the WCC, then flame out early on in the NCAA Tournament when matched with legit competition.

Prediction: Gonzaga 81, Loyola Marymount 60

North Carolina (16-6, 6-3) at #8 Miami (18-3, 9-0)

It was hard to know what to expect from the Tar Heels this season. They had a mass exodus of talent to the NBA, but Roy Williams strong recruiting meant they still had enough talent to compete this season. They have been unable to land a signature win this season, but they get their chance Saturday against the biggest surprise of the season, the Jim Larranaga led Miami Hurricanes.

F James Michael McAdoo has made the leap into the Tar Heels best player that many expected he would. He is terrible at the free thow line and turns the ball over a bit too much, but other than that is exceptional in every other phase of the game. Another player who has stepped his game up is Reggie Bullock. Bullock is shooting 47% and is a lethal 44% from three point range. He and McAdoo are also the team's leading rebounders. Freshman guard Marcus Paige hasn't made anyone forget Kendall Marshall, but also hasn't brought back nightmares of Larry Drew II. He is going through some growing pains, but the flashes are there. Dexter Strickland remains a tough, gritty defensive player, who can provide you some extra offense on occasion.

Paige will have his work cut out for him Saturday, when he tries to guard Shane Larkin. He did a nice job against Larkin the first time these teams played, holding him to just one assist. It was F-C Kenny Kadji who dominated the Heels in Chapel Hill, as he poured in 18 points. The Heels also let Julian Gamble go off on them for 14 points, and Gamble only averages 6 on the season. C Reggie Johnson will play in this game, which will make winning even more difficult for Carolina. Johnson missed the first game, and his presence makes the Hurricanes absolutely dominating on the glass.

I keep thinking the Hurricanes have to lose at some point, and the Heels have to get a signature win at some point, to restore balance to the ACC. I think that Carolina can complete and not have their doors blown off like they did at NC State earlier this season. I just think when it comes to crunch time, the veteran presence that the Canes have will overcome the youth of Carolina.

Prediction: Miami 75, North Carolina 72


Sunday, February 10

#1 Indiana (20-3, 8-2) at #10 Ohio State (17-5, 7-3)

No time to rest for shell shocked Indiana, who has to follow their stunning loss at Illinois, with a very difficult game at Columbus. Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo lead the Hoosiers in scoring, as they feature one of the best offensive attacks in the country. The Buckeyes are not as proficient on offense, but make up for it with stifling defense. Deshaun Thomas is their do everything player. A guy who can score, rebound, passes well, and plays great defense. He is also from Indiana, so his success probably burns Hoosiers fans a bit more than it normally would. I picked Indiana to win this game before their loss last night, and despite that, I am sticking with them. I believe this team is too good to drop back to back games. The atmosphere will be intimidating, but it comes down to matchups and talent, areas the Hoosiers have an advantage over the Buckeyes in.

Prediction: Indiana 78, Ohio State 73

#4 Duke (20-2, 7-2) at Boston College (10-12, 2-7)

At least this game isn't in Durham, so we won't have to hear any chants mocking a player's recently deceased grandmother. A typical Duke season of doing well in the regular season, but will likely end with them flaming out early on as a 1 or 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The biggest revelation this season has been how important Ryan Kelly is to the Blue Devils success. No one knew that he was the second coming of Rik Smits.

Prediction: Duke 68,  Boston College 58

California (13-9, 5-5) at #7 Arizona (20-2, 8-2)

The Wildcats haven't drawn a ton of national attention but they should be a team to be reckoned with in March. G Mark Lyons and F Solomon Hill give them a lethal inside out combination, and Lyons followed coach Sean Miller from Xavier to Arizona. There were questions about how well he would mesh with Arizona, but he has answered those resoundingly. He is coming off one of his best games of the season, a dominating performance against Stanford.

Prediction: Arizona 77, California 69

St. John's (15-8, 7-4) at #9 Syracuse (19-3, 7-2)

This could be the last time these two rivals play each other for a while, as Syracuse moves on to the ACC next season. St. John's is squarely on the bubble but has mostly feasted on the weak parts of the Big East. If they are to make the NCAA Tournament they will have to earn it, as five of their last seven games are against ranked teams. They have a tremendous, young nucleus in sophomore guard D'Angelo Harris and freshman forward Jakarr Sampson. Cuse coach Jim Boeheim continues to keep the Orange at the top of the rankings year after year, despite consistently losing talent early to the NBA. Brandon Triche and C.J. Fair have seen increased minutes this year and rose to the challenge by upping their contributions. This should be a good, old fashioned Big East slugfest, something that will be missed.

Prediction: Syracuse 63, St. John's 56

2012 March Madness (South and Midwest Regions) - Sweet 16 and Elite 8

So last night didn't go so well for me in the picks department. I correctly predicted just one of the four games, so hoping for a little more success tonight. Tonight's games feature some Cinderellas, a David vs. Goliath battle, and a rematch from one of the best games of the regular season. Syracuse, Ohio State, Louisville, and Florida punched their Elite Eight tickets last night, who will join them?

South Regional Semi-Final

#10 Xavier (23-12) vs. #3 Baylor (29-7)

Xavier was having a strong season and then the rails came off following the ugly brawl in their game against Cincinnati. They were able to right the ship just in time to make the NCAA Tournament and after wins against Notre Dame and Lehigh are in the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in five seasons. Their best player by far is senior guard Tu Holloway. Holloway averaged 17 points per game during the season and is averaging 23 points per game in the first two games of the tournament. He is joined in the back court by another dangerous guard, junior Mark Lyons. Lyons was second on the team in scoring and assists but was pretty quiet in the past two games. The Musketeers big presence inside is senior C Kenny Frease. Frease was a monster against Lehigh, scoring 25 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. He doesn't figure to have nearly that stat line going up against Perry Jones III but how he plays is a major factor in whether or not Xavier pulls the upset.

After a disappointing season last year Baylor has been at the top of the rankings just about all season. They got more than expected trouble from South Dakota State in the Second Round, but were able to blow away Colorado in Round Three. Perry Jones III is their leading scorer but he is also wildly inconsistent. He has not played well at all thus far in the tournament and was virtually invisible against Colorado. They can win when Jones struggles but if they want to a national championship he will have to pick up his play. The Bears have an electric guard in Pierre Jackson, as Jackson can both score and facilitate the offense. Watching him and Holloway go against each other will be fun. The Bears other big man that complements Jones is Quincy Acy. At just 6'7 Acy averages almost as many rebounds as the 6'11 Jones. He plays with a ton of heart and if Jones had Acy's motor Jones would probably be a consensus #1 pick in the NBA draft.

Baylor is a better offensive team than Xavier but Xavier will be able to stay in this game because of their defense. It will really come down to how well Xavier is able to slow down Baylor's bigs, Jones and Acy. Unfortunately, for the Musketeers I don't think they will be able to slow them down much, and the Bears will be in the Elite Eight for the second time in three years.

Prediction: Baylor 77, Xavier 69

Midwest Regional Semi-Final

#13 Ohio (29-7) vs. #1 North Carolina (31-5)

The story of this game would normally be the David, Ohio from the MAC, taking on the Goliath, North Carolina from the ACC. Instead, all of the talk has been about whether or not Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall will be able to play or not. As of right now it appears Marshall will not play tonight. Marshall is critical to the success of Carolina. Despite all of the talent they will still have on the floor, they are only at their peak when Marshall is facilitating. Luckily, for the Heels they have a good draw for tonight's game against an over matched Ohio team.

Carolina breezed through Vermont and Creighton with relative ease. The way Carolina looked was what had everyone anointing them as the number one team prior to the season. With Marshall unlikely to suit up tonight he will be replaced by a combo of freshman Stillman White and senior Justin Watts. Watts may get more playing time as the senior but this is why the loss of Dexter Strickland earlier in the season was so huge. Strickland would have been a much better option, despite not being a natural point guard. Hopefully White and Watts can avoid a ton of turnovers, contribute some points if possible and just let John Henson, Tyler Zeller, Reggie Bullock, and Harrison Barnes do their things.

Ohio is the highest remaining seed in the tournament. They knocked off Michigan, and then took out South Florida. The Bobcats have been carried by their point guard D.J. Cooper. Cooper shot very well against Michigan and South Florida and made the big plays late in both games when they needed him. The Bobcats second most known player is Nick Kellogg, the son of former player and broadcaster Clark Kellogg. Nick can be dangerous from three point land and allowing perimeter shots has been the Achilles heel, no pun intended, for North Carolina this season.

I can't see any way Carolina loses this game. With Marshall they would probably win by 20-25 points, without him I think they can still win by double digits. Carolina's size is going to be overwhelming to Ohio and unless the Bobcats shot 60%, I can't see them hanging around. One key will be for Carolina to take a large lead early and not allow Ohio to get any confidence. Things could become stressful if they let Ohio hang around for an extended period of time.

Prediction: North Carolina 80, Ohio 66

South Regional Semi-Final

#4 Indiana (27-8) vs. #1 Kentucky (34-2)

These two teams played each other in Bloomington on December 10th, with the Hoosiers handing Kentucky their first loss of the season on a buzzer beater by Christian Watford, 73-72. If you watch ESPN you have probably seen the shot about a million times by now as they feature it in one of their commercials. That game cemented that the Hoosiers were back on the national stage. Now they try to do what seems to be impossible, beat the best team in the country twice.

The Hoosiers are lucky to even be in this game. After a comfortable win against New Mexico State, it took a late rally against VCU for the Hoosiers to win that game. A lot of teams in the NCAA rely on their guards but the Hoosiers success hinges on their two forwards, Watford and Cody Zeller. Both were able to get Anthony Davis in foul trouble for Kentucky and he played just 24 minutes in the first game. If they can attack Davis inside and get him into the foul trouble, the impossible will become much more possible. While he may not be the focal point of the team, guard Jordan Hulls is still crucial. He struggled mightily against VCU and that was a big reason that the Hoosiers were trailing most of the game.

Everyone knows about Davis and how good he has been for the Wildcats. They are filled with weapons and on paper appear impossible to beat. If you somehow slow down Davis you still have to deal with Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marquis Teague, and Terrence Jones. The Wildcats usually play a 7 man rotation to the secret to beating them is to try to get them into foul trouble and make them use their bench.

Homecourt advantage was the difference in the last game and without that I don't think the Hoosiers are in the Wildcats league. I expect Davis to play under control and avoid foul trouble and the weapons of the Wildcats to overwhelm Indiana and give Kentucky their revenge.

Prediction: Kentucky 75, Indiana 65

Midwest Regional Semi-Final

#11 North Carolina State (24-12) vs. #2 Kansas (29-6)

Allow me to take a moment to pat myself on the back as being one of the few people to pick 11 seed NC State to reach the Sweet 16. After watching the Wolfpack play in the ACC Tournament I could tell that they were a team hitting their peak at the right team. If you look at their stats they are actually much better than you might expect. They are a better rebounding team than Kansas and also almost as good a scoring team. They dispatched San Diego State rather easily in Round Two and then rallied to defeat Georgetown in Round Three. Sophomore C.J. Leslie is the biggest reason for the Wolfpack's turnaround under first year coach Mark Gottfriend. He has raised his game considerably and his ability to battle with Georgetown's bigs kept the Wolfpack in the game when they trailed early. Another player who has shown considerable improvement this year is forward Richard Howell. Like Leslie, Howell has seen his numbers rise across the board, he struggled against the Hoyas but had an outstanding game against the Aztecs. The Wolfpack also have a dangerous point guard in Lorenzo Brown.

Kansas had little trouble with Detroit but trailed most of their game against Purdue before their defense forced enough turnovers to give them the victory. One of the most improved players in country is their senior point guard Tyshawn Taylor. Taylor has raised his scoring 8 points a game this season, and it was a late steal, followed by a layup that was the key to them overcoming Purdue. The man that received most of the pub for the Jayhawks is forward Thomas Robinson, a Player of the Year candidate. He had a terrible game against Purdue and will need to bounce back for the Jayhawks to avoid an unexpected early exit.

Some people will just look at the seeds and think mismatch, but as I stated above the Wolfpack aren't that far off from the Jayhawks. I think this will be one of those games where neither team is able to take a big lead and will be filled with lead changes. I think Kansas will make just enough plays at the end of the game, like they did against Purdue, that they will escape with the win.

Prediction: Kansas 70, North Carolina State 67

In Sunday's Elite Eight games I think that Kentucky will get past Baylor in a physical, bruising affair. Perry Jones may really be exposed by Anthony Davis. Then in the other game, I hope that somehow Kendall Marshall will himself to play some. Even without him, I still think Carolina can beat Kansas and get back to The Final Four.

2012 March Madness: Midwest Region (First Weekend)

The region I will be most interested in is the Midwest region where the Tar Heels reside as the #1 seed. This is also the region where I expect the most upsets and double digit seeds to make runs to the Sweet 16. I believe the Heels will be immune from any upsets this weekend but a potential Third Round matchup with Creighton or even Alabama makes me nervous. Other teams to watch include #2 seed Kansas with Thomas Robinson, one of the biggest surprises of the season, #3 seed Georgetown, and #4 seed Michigan, led by Tim Hardaway, Jr. Lurking in the shadows will be #11 seed North Carolina State, and the bruisers from South Florida.

Best Game: #6 San Diego State vs. #11 NC State

This region isn't filled with many intriguing Second Round games so this almost wins by default. The Wolfpack had a strong showing in the ACC Tournament and come into the NCAA Tournament with momentum on their side. They are a strong offensive team and aren't just carried by one guy, but have many that can fill the basket. Five players averaged double figures in scoring, led by forward C.J. Leslie. Guards rule for the Aztecs with Chase Tapley and Jamaal Franklin providing most of the scoring, and in Franklin's case even the rebounding.

Player to Watch: North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall

There are a lot of talented players in this region but no team relies more heavily on a single player than the Heels do on Marshall. If Marshall is out of sorts, then so is Carolina, no matter how well Harrison Barnes or Tyler Zeller might be playing. That was evident on Sunday in the ACC Championship game against Florida State. Marshall was not himself in the first half and Carolina got behind big. He played much better in the second half and the Heels almost completed the comeback. It is important for Carolina that Marshall play like himself in each game and get going early. If he is scoring it is a bonus but it is most important that he is successfully feeding Zeller and John Henson inside, and finding Barnes on the wing. When Marshall is at his best, there may be no better point guard in college basketball.

Best Potential Game: #1 North Carolina vs. #8 Creighton

This game would be billed as David vs. Goliath but the Heels shouldn't overlook Creighton. Creighton was seventh in scoring average, at 80 points a game and it is possible each of these teams could score 100 if they play one another. Forward Doug McDermott is a beast for the Blue Jays, averaging 23 points per game. Watching him battle Harrison Barnes would be delightful. Creighton is also the best shooting team in college basketball, and that could minimize one of Carolina's biggest strengths, their domination of the boards. I would much rather see power conference Alabama in the Round of 32 than the dangerous Blue Jays.

Lowest Seed to Make It Through Weekend: #12 South Florida

South Florida plays a style that is almost unwatchable, but it is also very effective and the reason why they are making their second ever NCAA Tournament appearance. The Bulls don't score much, averaging 59.2 points per game, good enough for 328th in the country. They don't have a single player that scores in double digits but they play a rugged brand of basketball not seen much these days. I think their style of play could be a shock to the system for teams like California and potentially Temple and Michigan.

Predictions

First Round

#16 Lamar over #16 Vermont

#12 South Florida over #12 California

Second Round

#1 North Carolina over #16 Lamar

#8 Creighton over #9 Alabama

#12 South Florida over #5 Temple

#4 Michigan over #13 Ohio

#11 NC State over #6 San Diego State

#3 Georgetown over #14 Belmont

#7 St. Mary's over #10 Purdue

#2 Kansas over #15 Detroit

Third Round

#1 North Carolina over #8 Creighton

#12 South Florida over #4 Michigan

#11 NC State over #3 Georgetown

#2 Kansas over #7 St. Mary's

2012 ACC Tournament Preview

The top three of the ACC remained the same as last season, with North Carolina, Duke, and Florida State securing the top three spots. Four through six includes a new set of teams as Clemson, Boston College, and Virginia Tech have given way to Virginia, North Carolina State, and Miami. The top four appear to be locks for the NCAA Tournament, while NC State and Miami will need impressive showings in the ACC Tournament to earn a bid.

1. North Carolina (27-4, 14-2)

Harrison Barnes leads the Heels in scoring but their unquestioned best player is ACC Player of the Year Tyler Zeller. Zeller does just about everything, he passes and shoots well, and is a terror on the glass and defensively. A full season of Kendall Marshall at the point has led to talk that Marshall may declare for the NBA draft after this season. John Henson still makes some plays that leave me shaking my head, but their is no denying his ability, as he led the Heels in rebounding. Carolina didn't quite live up to the hype that preceded them this season, but as evidenced by their blowout win at Cameron last weekend, things may be clicking at just the right time. Once again Carolina is not very deep, so any foul trouble could spell doom. Also, you never know how seriously coach Roy Williams takes the ACC Tournament, so keep that in mind if the Heels stumble.

2. Duke (26-5, 13-3)

It was an odd season for Duke. They went undefeated on the road in conference play but lost three times at home, and it could have been five had they not mounted comebacks against NC State and Virginia Tech. Bad news came a few days ago when it was announced that F Ryan Kelly will miss the ACC Tournament with an injury. It is well known that Duke's success is predicated on their ability to hit three pointers. If those shots aren't falling it doesn't matter much how the Plumlee brothers, Mason and Miles are playing. Austin Rivers won first team all ACC at point guard over Kendall Marshall and was pretty much the only reason Duke beat Carolina in their first meeting. Seth Curry is another three point specialist that Duke relies on. Duke has owned the ACC Tournament for the last decade, but it would be a pretty huge surprise if they were able to win it this season.

3. Florida State (21-9, 12-4)

The Seminoles play a rugged, ugly type of basketball but it produces results. They routed North Carolina and then defeated Duke at Cameron. While not known for their offensive prowess, one player to look out for is sharpshooter Michael Snaer who shot 44% this season and beat Duke and Virginia with late game shots. Senior Bernard James is another to play to watch, finishing with an average of 8.3 rebounds per game and shooting 61% this season.

4. Virginia (22-8, 9-7)

The Cavaliers have a very similar style of play as the Seminoles. They don't try to beat you with offensive firepower, but instead overwhelm you with defense and take advantage of each possession. It seems like F Mike Scott has been their forever and this season he earned his spot on the ACC First Team, finishing with 17.9 ppg and 8.3 rpg. Problem is he is just about the only threat to rebound for the Cavaliers, so when they face big teams like Carolina it spells trouble.

5. North Carolina State (20-11, 9-7)

Mark Gottfried has done a nice job in his first season in Raleigh. The Wolfpack may not be able to grab an NCAA bid but they don't have many seniors and should be in contention for the next few seasons. Their best player is sophomore F C.J. Leslie who lead the Wolfpack and scoring and was second in rebounding. They also have a very talented guard in Lorenzo Brown who does a great job at finding the open man. The Wolfpack are ranked highly in scoring, rebounding, assists and shooting percentage, so they are definitely a threat to make a run in this tournament.

6. Miami (18-11, 9-7)

I have followed the Hurricanes much closer this season due to former Mason coach Jim Larranaga taking over for Frank Haith this season. Larranaga has been politicking like crazy for the Canes to get into the NCAA Tournament but most experts believe they have to win at least 2 games in the ACC Tournament to get in. Guard Durant Scott has dropped his turnovers this season and has been much more careful with the ball. The Canes best player is junior C Reggie Johnson. Johnson has missed time this season due to injury and suspension, but his presence inside makes a huge difference for Miami. He almost single handedly led them to victory at Duke in February. F-C Kenny Kadji is another big body that scores and rebounds.

Below are my predictions for today's First Round games and then how I see the rest of the ACC Tournament playing out over the weekend.

First Round

#8 Maryland over #9 Wake Forest
#5 NC State over #12 Boston College
#10 Virginia Tech over #7 Clemson
#6 Miami over #11 Georgia Tech

Quarter-Finals

#1 North Carolina over #8 Maryland
#5 NC State over #4 Virginia
#2 Duke over #10 Virginia Tech
#3 Florida State over #6 Miami

Semi-Finals

#1 North Carolina over #5 NC State
#3 Florida State over #2 Duke

Finals

#1 North Carolina over #3 Florida State

I expect to see a few minor upsets in the tournament. I think Duke won't have much trouble with Clemson, but the loss of Kelly will catch up with them when they play Florida State. The Seminoles split with Miami this year, and since I think they are the better team I like them to win the rubber match. Hopefully, the Heels come ready to play on Friday against Maryland, unlike last season against Miami. I think the Wolfpack will give Carolina some trouble in the semi-finals but ultimately the Heels firepower will be too much. That sets up a finals between Carolina and Florida State, and Carolina will get their revenge for an embarrassing blowout loss at Florida State in January.