The region I will be most interested in is the Midwest region where the Tar Heels reside as the #1 seed. This is also the region where I expect the most upsets and double digit seeds to make runs to the Sweet 16. I believe the Heels will be immune from any upsets this weekend but a potential Third Round matchup with Creighton or even Alabama makes me nervous. Other teams to watch include #2 seed Kansas with Thomas Robinson, one of the biggest surprises of the season, #3 seed Georgetown, and #4 seed Michigan, led by Tim Hardaway, Jr. Lurking in the shadows will be #11 seed North Carolina State, and the bruisers from South Florida.Best Game: #6 San Diego State vs. #11 NC State
This region isn't filled with many intriguing Second Round games so this almost wins by default. The Wolfpack had a strong showing in the ACC Tournament and come into the NCAA Tournament with momentum on their side. They are a strong offensive team and aren't just carried by one guy, but have many that can fill the basket. Five players averaged double figures in scoring, led by forward C.J. Leslie. Guards rule for the Aztecs with Chase Tapley and Jamaal Franklin providing most of the scoring, and in Franklin's case even the rebounding.
Player to Watch: North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall
There are a lot of talented players in this region but no team relies more heavily on a single player than the Heels do on Marshall. If Marshall is out of sorts, then so is Carolina, no matter how well Harrison Barnes or Tyler Zeller might be playing. That was evident on Sunday in the ACC Championship game against Florida State. Marshall was not himself in the first half and Carolina got behind big. He played much better in the second half and the Heels almost completed the comeback. It is important for Carolina that Marshall play like himself in each game and get going early. If he is scoring it is a bonus but it is most important that he is successfully feeding Zeller and John Henson inside, and finding Barnes on the wing. When Marshall is at his best, there may be no better point guard in college basketball.
Best Potential Game: #1 North Carolina vs. #8 Creighton
This game would be billed as David vs. Goliath but the Heels shouldn't overlook Creighton. Creighton was seventh in scoring average, at 80 points a game and it is possible each of these teams could score 100 if they play one another. Forward Doug McDermott is a beast for the Blue Jays, averaging 23 points per game. Watching him battle Harrison Barnes would be delightful. Creighton is also the best shooting team in college basketball, and that could minimize one of Carolina's biggest strengths, their domination of the boards. I would much rather see power conference Alabama in the Round of 32 than the dangerous Blue Jays.
Lowest Seed to Make It Through Weekend: #12 South Florida
South Florida plays a style that is almost unwatchable, but it is also very effective and the reason why they are making their second ever NCAA Tournament appearance. The Bulls don't score much, averaging 59.2 points per game, good enough for 328th in the country. They don't have a single player that scores in double digits but they play a rugged brand of basketball not seen much these days. I think their style of play could be a shock to the system for teams like California and potentially Temple and Michigan.
Predictions
First Round
#16 Lamar over #16 Vermont
#12 South Florida over #12 California
Second Round
#1 North Carolina over #16 Lamar
#8 Creighton over #9 Alabama
#12 South Florida over #5 Temple
#4 Michigan over #13 Ohio
#11 NC State over #6 San Diego State
#3 Georgetown over #14 Belmont
#7 St. Mary's over #10 Purdue
#2 Kansas over #15 Detroit
Third Round
#1 North Carolina over #8 Creighton
#12 South Florida over #4 Michigan
#11 NC State over #3 Georgetown
#2 Kansas over #7 St. Mary's
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