Thursday, August 29, 2013

Cram Session - Week 1

College football is here! 2012 was such an exciting season for me as a college football fan. My favorite team, Notre Dame, went 12-0 before absolutely face palming in the national championship game against Alabama. My other team, Nebraska made the Big Ten championship game, and then was obliterated by a 4-loss Wisconsin team that shouldn't even have been in the game. So while the endings were things I would rather forget, the journey was enjoyable. As most people predicted Alabama went to the National Championship game, but their predicted opponent, USC, turned into a complete joke. This season the popular pick for the championship game seems to be Alabama versus either Oregon or Stanford. Can Alabama three peat, becoming the first program in college football history to accomplish such a feat? Will Oregon really just truck along like nothing happened in their first season without Chip Kelly? Will a school like Stanford, actually play for a national title? I have a feeling that much like 2012, the picture at the end of the season, will be far different than the experts predicted.


Games That Matter To Me

Temple at #14 Notre Dame

In typical Notre Dame hate, everyone is ready to bury the Irish. Their starting quarterback Everett Golson got booted from the program. While that sucks, Golson wasn't anything special at quarterback. He probably is slightly better than his replacement Tommy Rees, but Rees has had success. In fact, Rees had to come in to clean Golson's messes on multiple occasions last season. More concering to me is having to replace Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood at running back. The starter will be George Atkinson III with Amir Carlisle expected to see action as well. Also, TE Tyler Eifert will be greatly missed. However, over the past decade Notre Dame has turned into Tight End U, so hopefully new starter Troy Niklas continues that tradition. The side of the ball that carried Notre Dame all of last season was the defense and they return 8 of 12 starters. Most people will focus on them being without Manti Te'o but they bring back defensive lineman Louis Nix and Stephen Tuitt. A new player to watch is LB Jaylon Smith, who becomes the first freshman to start at linebacker for Notre Dame in 18 years.

The Irish will be heavily favored in their opener against Temple. It is a new era for Temple football. They are now competing in the brand new American Athletic Conference, and has a new coach in Matt Rhule. Rhule has installed a no huddle offense, that he hopes will jump start a unit that averaged just 120 yards passing per game last season. They are quarterbacked by Connor Reilly who will be making his first ever college start on Saturday.

Notre Dame has rolled in most of their openers under Kelly, save for a loss to South Florida two years ago. I think things will go relatively smoothly on Saturday, but am not expecting a complete blowout of the Owls. Competition will pick up significantly next weekend, when they go to Michigan.

Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Temple 13   

Wyoming at #18 Nebraska

The Cornhuskers find themselves in a strange position heading into the 2013 season, especially for a team coached by defensive mastermind Bo Pelini. The offense is expected to be spectacular and one of the best units in college football. As for the defense? Most Cornhuskers fans are just hoping for the best. The defense ended last year in embarrassing fashion after being torched by Wisconsin and Georgia. It turned what had been a surprisingly strong season, including a 7-1 mark in the Big Ten, into another 4 loss disappointment. Nebraska's biggest challengers in the Big Ten race in the Legends division figure to once again be Michigan and Northwestern.

The offense is once again led by senior quarterback Taylor Martinez. Martinez is coming off his best season, throwing 23 TDs, while also rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns on the ground. Also returning is leading rusher Ameer Abdullah, and leading receiver Kenny Bell. The offense should be one of the best units in college football and certainly the best in the Big Ten.

Defensively, the linebacking corps is very young and there are questions about how effective the defensive line will be, especially against the run. Huskers coaches are optimistic about their two defensive ends, Jason Ankrah and junior-college transfer Randy Gregory. Nebraska feels good about their secondary, led by Ciante Evans, Josh Mitchell, Harvey Jackson and Corey Cooper.

Against Wyoming the defense will be going up against the spread offense. This will be a good test, because Nebraska's next two opponents, Southern Miss and UCLA also run the spread. The Cowboys have a very talented quarterback, Brett Smith, who threw 27 touchdowns versus just 6 interceptions last season. Unfortunately for him, his team's defense is awful and won't be able to stop Nebraska.

Prediction: Nebraska 49, Wyoming 24


Top 10

Thursday, August 29

North Carolina at #6 South Carolina

Expectations are sky high for the Gamecocks. They have the best defensive player in football, Jadeveon Clowney and a senior quarterback in Connor Shaw. Those expectations could quickly plummet if South Carolian doesn't come ready to play the Tar Heels tonight. North Carolina has a prolific offense led by a senior quarterback of their own, Bryn Renner. This should be a fun battle to watch between the Gamecocks imposing defense and the Heels fast offense.

Prediction: South Carolina 27, North Carolina 21

Saturday, August 31

#1 Alabama vs. Virginia Tech in Atlanta, Georgia

Alabama are the overwhelming favorites to win a third consecutive national title, and some think they may even run the table. I think they will probably lose a game late in the year, but not the last game of the year and then every team ahead of them will lose, and then they will win another national title. With underrated QB AJ McCarron back and the talented recruits still coming in, the Crimson Tide will act like they lost nothing to the NFL. The Hokies are going to be severely outmatched in this game, even with their gigantic quarterback Logan Thomas, who for some strange reason considered leaving early for the NFL last season despite not being very good.

Prediction: Alabama 34, Virginia Tech 9

Buffalo at #2 Ohio State

The first year under Urban Meyer in Columbus couldn't gone any better, as the Buckeyes ran the table, finishing 12-0. Well, I guess it could have gone a little better had they been eligible to compete for the national title. This year, no sanctions stand in their way and led by QB Braxton Miller, and the history of Urban Meyer teams in year two of his coaching career, expectations are a national title awaits. The Buffalo Bulls surely won't pose any threat of standing in the way of that goal.

Prediction: Ohio State 45, Buffalo 12

Nicholls State at #3 Oregon

Chip Kelly is gone, but he left behind a lot of talent for new coach Mark Helfrich. The offense still has explosive stars, QB Marcus Mariota and RB De'Anthony Thomas. Nicholls State is in for a beatdown they won't soon forget.

Prediction: Oregon 66, Nicholls State 7

#5 Georgia at #8 Clemson

The game of the weekend takes place in Clemson, South Carolina between these two top 10 teams. It features a great quarterback battle between Georgia's Aaron Murray and Clemson's Tajh Boyd. The difference might come in the run game, where Todd Gurley powers the Bulldogs attack. The Tigers lost their best running back Andre Ellington to graduation, leaving Boyd as their returning leading rusher. That is quite a burden for one player to carry and not one that will prove successful against a team as talented as Georgia. The Tigers secondary is the biggest concern area for the team and one that I believe Murray will exploit Saturday night, propelling Georgia to an impressive road win.

Prediction: Georgia 35, Clemson 24

Rice at #7 Texas A&M

Aggies quarterback Johnny Manziel has been embroiled in controversy all offseason. All this talk about ineligibility and all that will happen to him is he has to miss a half against an overmatched team. By the time Manziel takes the field, the Aggies should already be comfortably ahead. Rice isn't a terrible team, but I can't imagine them going to Kyle Field and upsetting the Aggies or even making it all that interesting.

Prediction: Texas A&M 40, Rice 19 

Toledo at #10 Florida

The Gators may be ranked in the top 10 preseason poll, but many pundits are expecting this year to be a flop. A lot of people feel that Florida got all the bounces last season in going 11-1 during the regular season. They had a terrific defense that helped overcome a non-existent offense. This year the injury bug has hit Florida hard and they will be missing several key pieces, not only for this game but future games as well.

Prediction: Florida 28, Toledo 17


NFL Divisional Previews - AFC North

The AFC North is a division in transition. Long dominated by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, it feels like the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns might be ready to say something about that. The Steelers didn't even make the playoffs last season, losing a do or die game at home to Cincinnati. They jettisoned some of their older defensive players and made some changes on the offensive line, and are hopeful they will get back to being Super Bowl contenders this season. The Bengals have made the playoffs two years in a row, but can't get past the Houston Texans. Marvin Lewis is the second longest tenured coach in football, and hasn't won a single playoff game. At some point you would have to think that will no longer be acceptable. The Cleveland Browns once again have a new coach, this time its Rob Chudzinski's turn to try to turn around the Browns. They are hopeful that he can work some magic with Brandon Weeden, and help an offense with a lot of young talent, turn into a dominating group. The Ravens won their second Super Bowl title, as Joe Flacco became an amazing quarterback at the right time. Then, they let basically their entire defense leave via free agency, as well as some important offensive pieces. John Harbaugh is a very good coach but this year will be his greatest test yet. 



1. Pittsburgh Steelers  

2012 Record: 8-8, 3rd place AFC North
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (7th season Pittsburgh, 68-36 career)
Key Additions: DE/OLB Jarvis Jones, RB Le'Veon Bell, RB LaRod Stephens-Howlings, QB Landry Jones, QB Bruce Gradkowski, RB Felix Jones, TE Matt Spaeth, OT Guy Whimper, CB William Gay
Key Losses: RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Mike Wallace, OT Max Starks, G Willie Colon, NT Casey Hampton, DE/OLB James Harrison, S Will Allen

2013 Outlook: Last season the Steelers were 6-3 and looked primed to once again be in the playoffs. Then Ben Roehtlisberger got hurt, as he often does playing behind a bad offensive line, and the Steelers went just 2-5 the rest of the way, missing the playoffs. Whether the Steelers win the division or miss the playoffs entirely this year, will rest on the health of Roethlisberger. The options behind him are slightly better than last year, but it would still be a significant drop-off. Usually in training camp you are watching a battle at the quarterback position, but this year for the Steelers the battle is at running back. Rashard Mendenhall is gone, leaving Isaac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer, LaRod Stephens-Howlings and rookie Le'Veon Bell to compete for the job. Bell got injured during the preseason and his status is uncertain, so right now it appears Redman will be the opening day starter. The Steelers will likely employ a mix of running backs, and it will be intriguing to see how that plays out throughout the year. There will also be change at wide receiver, as number one receiver Mike Wallace left for Miami. Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders are now the guys, and if last year is any indication Brown looks primed to breakout this season. Sanders is a bigger question mark, but the Steelers need him to step up, as the options behind him aren't good. Old reliable Health Miller is still recovering from surgery and it is not yet known when he will be back. Because of that, the Steelers did what they often do, picked up a player that had left and didn't do very well. This time it was former tight end, Matt Spaeth. Uncertainty on the offensive line is a constant Steelers storyline and this season is no different. Right tackle Mike Adams was not good last season but is back in the starting lineup with the Steelers counting on experience having made him better. They should have second year man David DeCastro as the starting right guard this year, after losing him for most of last year with a preseason injury. Marcus Gilbert is starting at left tackle, replacing the departed Max Starks. Roethlisberger is one of the best quarterbacks in the league at making plays on the run. Steelers fans probably wonder how good he could be if he ever had any time to throw the ball. The defense is called old and done just about every year it seems, but year after year they rank near the top of the NFL. One area they have struggled is getting to the quarterback, most notably Ziggy Hood. The other defensive end Brett Keisel is 34 and on the decline so this is an area of the team the Steelers will have to start addressing through the draft soon. An area that seems set is linebacker, especially with the drafting of stud Jarvis Jones out of Georgia. LaMarr Woodley was disappointing last season, but maybe the presence of Jones will help him out. LB Larry Foote re-upped for 3 more years this past off-season which was slightly surprising because he also struggled in 2012. Cortez Allen and Ike Taylor give the Steelers very good bookends, while the safeties that people have come to know for Pittsburgh are still there, Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark. Polamalu has turned into an injury plagued player, so it would be surprising if he gets through the 2013 season unscathed. The Steelers played to kicker Shaun Suisham's strengths and barely had him attempt anything over 50 yards. So while his numbers look good, he can't be counted on from long distance. Drew Butler ranked towards the bottom of the league in punting last year, so he will have to bounce back or won't be on the team much longer. The return tandem of Sanders on punts and Brown on kickoffs has big play potential. I can't remember the last time the Steelers missed the playoffs two straight years, and I don't expect that trend to start now. I think the defense will remain a strong unit, and I think Roethlisberger is due to finally be healthy an entire season. With the upheaval the Ravens are facing, the time is right for Pittsburgh to reclaim the AFC North.

Prediction: 10-6


2. Cincinnati Bengals   

2012 Record: 10-6, 2nd place AFC North
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis (11th season Cincinnati, 79-84-1 career)
Key Additions: TE Tyler Eifert, RB Giovanni Bernard, QB Josh Johnson, QB John Skelton, OLB James Harrison
Key Losses: FB Brian Leonard, OLB Manny Lawson, CB Nate Clements, K Josh Brown

2013 Outlook: The Bengals surprised many, including me by making the playoffs a second straight season. They surprised nobody when they were immediately bounced from the playoffs by the Texans, and that loss made it 23 years since the Benglas won a playoff game. You have got to think if this season passes by without a playoff win that changes have to be made at the top. One player that caught some heat for the playoff failure was QB Andy Dalton. In both of his playoff starts Dalton has played miserably. Dalton seems to be proving himself as an adequate quarterback, but one that isn't all that special. In fact, he probably looks better than he is because of the beast he has at wide receiver, A.J. Green. Green has battled injuries this preseason but should be ready for the opener. One player who won't be ready is Andrew Hawkins. Hawkins is likely to miss at least half the season with an injured ankle. That means Mohamed Sanu, who had just 16 catches last season, will have to step up and take over the number two spot. It also means that Dalton will rely even more on his tight end Jermaine Gresham. It wasn't clear if the Bengals don't like what they have in Gresham, or they just wanted to take a really good player when they drafted TE Tyler Eifert out of Notre Dame. Either way, the Bengals have a potent one-two punch at tight end now. Left tackle Andrew Whitworth is battling injuries, while the Bengals were more than happy to bring back right tackle Andre Smith who was a free agent. The rest of the line is solid and not an area of too much concern for the Bengals going into the season. The Bengals defense is one of the more exciting, and up and coming units in football. That group is led by defensive tackle Geno Atkins, who led the team with 12 sacks. Joining him on that dangerous defensive line is defensive end Michael Johnson, who was second on the Bengals in sacks. The Bengals are also pretty stacked at linebacker with Ray Maualaga, Vontaze Burfict and James Harrison. Burfict slipped in the draft in 2012 due to character concerns but so far he has behaved and has been the menace on the field the Bengals were hoping for. Harrison is getting older, but he's a prideful guy and I have a feeling he will show he has something left in the tank this season. Leon Hall and Terrence Newman are currently listed as the starting corners, but Dre Kirkpatrick and Pacman Jones will see time on the field as well. The safety position is questionable as Taylor Mays hasn't been able to do what it takes to take over a spot there, leaving George Iloka and and Reggie Nelson as the likely starters. Mike Nugent is back at kicker after missing the end of last season with injury. Kevin Huber is one of the top punters in football. The Bengals have a lot of talent but a rough slate of games to start the season will be their undoing in my opinion. I could see them starting the season 1-4 and that will be too much to overcome. I predict a mediocre 8-8 season and that we finally see a change at head coach.

Prediction: 8-8


3. Cleveland Browns    

2012 Record: 5-11, last place AFC North
Head Coach: Rob Chudzinksi (1st year Cleveland, 0-0 career)
Key Additions: DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo, QB Brian Hoyer, QB Jason Campbell, RB Dion Lewis, WR Davone Bess, WR David Nelson, TE Kellen Davis, OT Rashad Butler, DT Desmond Bryant, DE/OLB Paul Kruger, DE/OLB Quentin Groves, K Shayne Graham
Key Losses: QB Colt McCoy, WR Mohamed Massaquoi, TE Ben Watson, DE Frostee Rucker, DE/OLB Emmanuel Acho, OLB Chris Gocong, CB Sheldon Brown, S Usama Young, K Phil Dawson, P Reggie Hodges, KR Josh Cribbs

2013 Outlook: 2012 was another lost season for the Browns, but there is reason for optimism in 2013. The offense is surrounded with young talent at wide receiver and running back. Their second year quarterback, Brandon Weeden, isn't young but this preseason he has looked pretty good under new coach Rob Chudzinski's offense. The hope is that he, and RB Trent Richardson and wide receivers Josh Gordon and Greg Little can develop together. Richardson struggled through injuries in 2012 but showed flashes of brilliance. Gordon was a very nice surprise in his rookie year, catching 50 passes. He, like the rest of the Browns offense last season, had trouble with making his solid play consistent. Little has been a disappointment and drops the ball way too much. If he can't get his hands right he won't be in the league much longer. Another player that needs to step up in 2013 is TE Jordan Cameron. Cameron could open up the offense exponentially if he can become a greater threat as a receiver. The Browns offensive line is strong, led by left tackle Joe Thomas and center Alex Mack. The defense had their struggles as well in 2012, ranking towards the bottom of the league against the run and pass. The Browns are switching from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defense. How quickly they adjust as a defense will go a long way towards whether or not the Browns can become competitive in 2013. Two of their off-season signings will have to live up to the money were paid, DT Desmond Bryant and linebacker Paul Kruger. Prized draft pick LB Barkevious Mingo bruised his lung but the Browns are remaining optimistic that he won't have to miss a significant portion of the season. Some good news for Cleveland is that their best defensive player, CB Joe Haden will be available to them the entire season after missing the start of last year due to a suspension. The rest of the secondary is up in the air with the departures of CB Sheldon Brown and S Usama Young. S Tashaun Gipson will replace Young, and Gipson only started one game last season. The Browns lost their best player this off-season when K Phil Dawson signed with the 49ers. You might think I am joking but Dawson truly was their best player. He has been replaced by another veteran, Shayne Graham. Spencer Lanning is expected to be the punter come opening day. The return game is also different as Josh Cribbs is gone. Another reason for optimism for Cleveland is that their schedule does not look very tough. If they could win some of the games they should, they could be right in the thick of things for a .500 season. I think the Browns are building towards something, and while it likely won't fully bloom this season, brighter days are ahead for Cleveland.

Prediction: 7-9


4. Baltimore Ravens    

2012 Record: 10-6, 1st place AFC North, AFC and Super Bowl champions)
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (6th season Baltimore, 63-30 career)
Key Additions: S Matt Elam, DE/DT Chris Canty, DE/DT Marcus Spears, DE/OLB Elvis Dumervil,  LB Daryl Smith, S Michael Huff
Key Losses: WR Anquan Boldin, C Matt Birk, G Bobbie Williams, DE/OLB Paul Kruger, ILB Ray Lewis, ILB Dannell Ellerbe, ILB Brandon Ayandandejo, CB Cary Williams, S Ed Reed, S Bernard Pollard

2013 Outlook: The Ravens 10-6 record in 2012 was John Harbaugh's worst record since becoming Ravens coach. However, it turned out to be his best season as the Ravens ran the gauntlet from the Wild Card to become Super Bowl champions. Mediocre QB Joe Flacco got on the biggest hot streak of his life as he threw 11 TDs and 0 INTs in four playoff games. One player that helped Flacco achieve those heights was WR Anquan Boldin. Some of the catches that Boldin made in the playoffs were absurd, but Boldin is gone now, traded to the 49ers. That leaves Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones as Flacco's top receivers. Smith can be brilliant as a deep threat but hasn't shown that he can be a consistent number one guy. Can he make the tough catches that Boldin made look so easy? Jones was outstanding in the postseason, including his huge catch against the Broncos in the playoffs. However, on that play he was wide open due to the Broncos misplaying the ball terribly. He had just 30 catches last year in the regular season and it is asking quite a bit of him to become their number two guy. Their best receiver might have been TE Dennis Pitta but he was lost for the year in training camp. That leaves the underwhelming Ed Dickson as their starting tight end. This season will be a great measure for just how good Flacco is, as his receiving options are one of the most underwhelming groups in the league. One area he still will have tons of help from is running back, led by Ray Rice. Rice is the key to the Ravens offense this year. If he goes down with an injury at any time, we might be back to the Ravens offenses of the early 2000's. He is such a versatile threat both running and catching the ball out of the backfield. Offensive line wasn't immune to the sweeping changes the Ravens felt this off-season. Center Matt Birk retired, and he will be replaced by second year man Gino Gradkowski. Bryant McKinnie and Michal Oher will man the tackle positions. McKinnie seemed done this time a year ago, but by the end of 2012 he was the Ravens best lineman. Defense has long been the hallmark of the Ravens but last year the defense struggled. Part of that was due to injury and age, and the Ravens obviously felt they needed to move in another direction as player after player was allowed to move on. Long defined by Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, now the Ravens are led by a new cast of characters. They acquired Chris Canty to join the defensive line along with the dominating Haloti Ngata. Terrell Suggs is back to full strength after missing time last year, and he is now joined by former Bronco Elvis Dumervil. Dumervil fell into the Ravens laps after a fax mishap ended his time in Denver. All eyes will be on LB Daryl Smith who is taking over for Lewis. Smith has impressed in the preseason, but as always any preseason result is taken with a grain of salt. He is a veteran though, so he should fill in nicely. Along with Reed, S Bernard Pollard is gone so now former Raider Michael Huff and James Ihedigbo are the starting safeties. At corner the Ravens are happy to welcome back Lardarius Webb and he will start alongside Corey Graham. Special teams remained stable for Baltimore and is major strength area for the team. Both kicker Justin Tucker and punter Sam Koch are two of the best in the league. The aforementioned Jones was awesome as returner last season, highlighted by his kickoff return in the Super Bowl. Maybe I am underestimating Harbaugh but I think this season will be a disaster for Baltimore. The offense doesn't have enough weapons and with that much pressure on him, I think Flacco will struggle badly this season. The defense is trying to rotate in a bunch of new players, and it will take them time to gel as a unit. The schedule is also challenging early so the Ravens won't have time for a learning curve. Add in that the recent history of Super Bowl winners following up their seasons with not winning a playoff game and I think a last place finish is in the cards for the defending champs.

Prediction: 6-10

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

NFL Divisional Previews - NFC North

Many people are talking about the strength of the NFC West, but a reasonable argument could be made that the NFC North is the best division in football. The Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago Bears each won 10 or more games last season. The only weak link in the division was the Detroit Lions, which isn't anything new. The Packers have seen some pretty major changes to their offensive and defensive starters but with Aaron Rodgers leading the way, the results are expected to remain the same. The Chicago Bears are starting the Marc Trestman era, as a 10 win season wasn't enough to save Lovie Smith's job as the Bears missed the playoffs once again. The Minnesota Vikings will be out to prove that their 10-win season last year wasn't a fluke. The Detroit Lions want to prove that 2012 was a fluke, and they are ready to be contenders like they were in the 2011 season. 


1. Green Pay Packers  

2012 Record: 11-5, NFC North Champions
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (8th season Green Bay, 80-42 career)
Key Additions: RB Eddie Lacy, RB Johnathan Franklin, QB Vince Young, DE/DT Datone Jones
Key Losses: RB Cedric Benson, RB Ryan Grant, WR Greg Jennings, WR Donald Driver, TE Tom Crabtree, C Jeff Saturday, ILB Desmond Bishop, S Charles Woodson

2013 Outlook: The Packers didn't breeze through the regular season in 2012 like they did in 2011 but they still played well enough to win another NFC North division title. They beat an undermanned Minnesota Vikings team in the Wild Card round before getting literally run over by Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers in the Divisional Round. Last year, the offense was not the explosive unit it was in 2011. Rodgers still put up fantastic numbers but the passing offense dropped to 9th in the NFL and the rushing attack continued to struggle, finishing 20th. The most absurd stat that captures the lack of effectiveness of Green Bay's running game is the fact that they haven't had a back go over 100 yards rushing in a game in 43 consecutive regular season games.  They looked to rectify that by taking two of the top running backs coming out of college in the draft, Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin. Both backs have had their issues in training camp. There were whispers that Lacy came into camp out of shape, while Franklin has not impressed so far. Because of that, currently DuJuan Harris is at the top of the depth chart for Green Bay, with James Starks and Alex Green behind him. It remains to be seen which of these running backs will make the final 53 man roster. If the running game can't get traction, the offense will fall once again in the hands of Rodgers and his receivers. Longtime receivers Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are both gone, allowing Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jordy Nelson to take the reigns. Cobb was excellent last season and is a weapon the Packers can use in a multitude of ways because of his speed. Jones led the league with 14 receiving touchdowns last year. He still disappears at times but you can't complain too much about the year he had last season. Nelson dealt with injuries most of last season and already is having injury problems this year in camp. He is expected to be ready by Week 1 and is hopeful he can put his injuries behind him. Some good news coming out of camp has been the play of TE Jermichael Finley. Finley had struggled the past few seasons with drops and inconsistency but has looked fantastic so far in preseason. If he can carry that over to the regular season it will make things that much easier for Rodgers and the other receivers. The Packers offensive line was a weakness last year, not only in run blocking but also pass protection. Right tackle Marshall Newhouse was awful last season, but will remain in the starting lineup. The Packers suffered a major blow at left tackle when Bryan Bulaga suffered a season ending injury in training camp. That means rookie David Bakhtiari will now be Rodgers blindside protector. Left guard T.J. Lang has been moved to right guard. There has been a lot of shifting and change with the injuries and poor performance of the line. How they perform will be a major storyline during the Packers 2013 season. The Packers defense was improved in 2012 but then exploited badly by the 49ers in the playoffs. They had no answer for the Niners read option and starting the 2013 season will see that in back to back weeks to open the season when they play the Niners and Washington Redskins. The defensive line will have a new look with their first round pick DE Datone Jones. He will immediately start on the left end, with the Freezer B.J. Raji back at the right end. Any talk of the Packers defense normally beings with stud LB Clay Matthews. Matthews led the team in sacks last season and was rewarded with a big contract this off-season. A.J. Hawk is the other most known Packers linebacker but he mostly still rides off his college reputation. M.D. Jennings will replace Charles Woodson at safety. The rest of the secondary is pretty strong with safety Morgan Burnett and the two corners, Sam Shields and Tramon Williams. Surprisingly, Mason Crosby will be back at kicker for the Packers. He made David Akers look good last season, and I am really surprised the Packers brought him back. Punter Tim Masthay has a cool name but punting wise is just average. WR Cobb brings an element of big play potential for the return game. The Packers have some question marks and a tough schedule, but they still remain one of the most talented teams in football. I expect Rodgers and the offense to continue to hum along and for the Packers run game to be improved this year. The Packers will be in the thick of things in the NFC as they have been the last few seasons.

Prediction: 11-5


2. Chicago Bears    

2012 Record: 10-6, 3rd place NFC North
Head Coach: Marc Trestman (1st year Chicago, 0-0 career)
Key Additions: G Kyle Long, ILB Jon Bostic, TE Martellus Bennett, OT Jermon Bushrod, G Matt Slauson, DE Kyle Moore, S Tom Zbikowski
Key Losses: QB Jason Campbell, WR Johnny Knox, TE Kellen Davis, TE Matt Spaeth, G Gabe Carimi, G Chilo Rachal, DE Israel Idonije, OLB Geno Hayes, ILB Brian Urlacher, CB D.J. Moore

2013 Outlook: The biggest question surrounding the Bears this season is what effect coach Marc Trestman will have on the Bears putrid passing game. He has been out of the NFL for a few years, but was quite successful as coach of the Montreal Alouettes in the CFL. The Bears passing game was Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall in 2012 and not much else. They ranked 29th in the league in passing offense, and their top 10 running game wasn't good enough to overcome those struggles. RB Matt Forte has been the most consistent cog of the Bears offense for years, and Trestman figures to feature him heavily. The hope is that Forte can become a bigger part of the passing offense, after mostly disappearing from it last season. The addition of Marshall was a good one, as he is easily the Bears most prolific wide receiver in years. Now it is time for second year WR Alshon Jeffery to step up and become a threat that can take some pressure off of Marshall. The Bears have upgraded at the tight end position with the addition of Martellus Bennett. Bennett should give Cutler an added weapon, and the tools are there for Cutler to succeed. This is a contract year for Cutler, and anything less then a special season might spell the end of his time in Chicago. Now, the biggest key to his success is whether the offensive line will give him time to prosper. The Bears have added Jermon Bushrod to the line and drafted guard Kyle Long in the first round of the draft. Another new starter on the line will be left guard Matt Slauson. The Bears hope these changes will finally solve an area that has been a problem ever since Cutler became the quarterback. Defense was pretty much always a strength for the Bears in the Lovie Smith era, it will be interesting to see if that continues with him no longer the coach and Brian Urlacher no longer the hear and soul of the defense. Former Bronco D.J. Williams is expected to take over for Urlacher, but rookie Jon Bostic has really impressed this preseason and it may not be long before he takes over. Lance Briggs is still an anchor at linebacker and one of the best in the league. The defensive line is still defined by the imposing Julius Peppers who has so far lived up to the huge free agent money he signed for a few years back. Fellow defensive end Corey Wootoon isn't as well known but had a strong season last year with 7 sacks. Henry Melton is a strong presence against both the run and pass at defensive tackle. Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman make up one of the best cornerback duos in the league, and Major Wright mans the safety spot quite well. Robbie Gould is one of the best kickers in the league, while punter Adam Podlesh doesn't have a booming league but does a nice job of pinning teams back. Due to teams not kicking to him as much and somewhat declining skills Devin Hester is no longer the human highlight reel in the return game that he once was. Due to a tougher schedule the Bears may not win as many games as last season but I think they will get back to the playoffs this year. I think the addition of Trestman calling the plays and adding Bennett and the emergence of Jeffery, along with improvement on the line will make the Bears passing game very dangerous. The defense will remain a strength, and the Bears will do just enough to sneak into the playoffs.

Prediction: 9-7


3. Minnesota Vikings  

2012 Record: 10-6, 2nd place NFC North
Head Coach: Leslie Frazier (3rd season Minnesota, 16-23 career)
Key Additions: DT Sharrif Floyd, CB Xavier Rhodes, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, P Jeff Locke, QB Matt Cassel, WR Greg Jennings, ILB Desmond Bishop
Key Losses: WR Percy Harvin, WR Michael Jenkins, ILB Jasper Brinkley, CB Antoine Winfield, P Chris Kluwe

2013 Outlook: Adrian Peterson basically single-handedly carried the Vikings into the playoffs in 2012. Rushing for over 2,000 yards Peterson was the Vikings main offensive weapon, as QB Christian Ponder continued to struggle with inconsistency. Even worse for Ponder, he was injured and unable to play in the Vikings embarrassing Wild Card playoff loss to the Packers. The week prior he had played his best game as a pro in leading the Vikings over the Packers to get Minnesota into the playoffs. The Vikings took away one of Ponder's best weapons by trading Percy Harvin to Seattle, but are hopeful the signing of Greg Jennings can make up for that. I am skeptical as to how effective Jennings will be. He is coming off an injury plagued season and has always been blessed by playing with superb quarterbacks. He also had multiple impressive wideouts surrounding him in Green Bay, which certainly isn't the case in Minnesota. Lining up opposite him is Jerome Simpson who had a 2012 to forget. Ponder's second favorite target will likely be TE Kyle Rudolph, who led the team with 9 receiving touchdowns. The offense will still go through Peterson, who is confident he can remain at the exceptionally high level he has been throughout his career. Even if he remains the best running back in the NFL the Vikings want to see Ponder take that next step in his third year as the starter. The Vikings are stacked at tackle with Matt Kalil and Phil Loadholt manning those positions. The guard positions are less dominant, but Charlie Johnson and Brandon Fusco are adequate. The Vikings were pretty good against the run last season and did a nice job of rushing the quarterback. DE Jared Allen led the team in sacks with 12, although for him that was a somewhat disappointing season. Brian Robison and Everson Griffen are also disruptive forces and do a good job of getting to the quarterback. Kevin Williams is still there in the middle, making life miserable for running backs. Erin Henderson and Chad Greenway are solid at linebacker, and former Packer Desmond Bishop should also see some time in the starting lineup. The secondary will look different as Minnesota parted ways with longtime CB Antoine Winfield. The star of the secondary is now second year safety Harrison Smith out of Notre Dame. Josh Robinson and Chris Cook will man the corner position this year. If Robinson struggles like he did last year, first round draft pick Xavier Rhodes will quickly take over. Blair Walsh was an outstanding kicker as a rookie and with new punter Jeff Locke the Vikings are hoping they are set at those positions for years to come. The Vikings are pretty much the definition of an average team. It took a super human season from Peterson to will the Vikings to the playoffs. While I expect Peterson to be very good once again, I don't see how he can replicate his 2012 season again. I am not sold on Ponder as being the answer at quarterback, and also, don't believe the Vikings have surrounded him with the necessary weapons at receiver. Maybe if Jennings can stop talking or thinking about his old team, he could prove to be a strong addition. With an average team will come average results for the Vikings.

Prediction: 8-8


4. Detroit Lions 

2012 Record: 4-12, last place NFC North
Head Coach: Jim Schwartz (5th season Detroit, 22-43 career)
Key Additions: DE Ezekial Ansah, RB Reggie Bush, G Leroy Harris, G Jake Scott, DE Israel Idonije, S Glover Quin, K David Akers, KR Michael Spurlock
Key Losses: RB Kevin Smith, WR Titus Young, WR Kassim Osgood, OT Jeff Backus, OT Gosder Cherilus, DE Cliff Avril, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, DT Corey Williams, OLB Justin Durant, CB Drayton Florence, K Jason Hanson

2013 Outlook: The Lions were eager to prove that the 2011 season was the start of something in Detroit, led by Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Instead, the Lions ended the season on an 8-game losing streak, despite prolific numbers from Stafford and Johnson. Stafford was just 33 yards short of another 5,000 yard passing season, but despite all those yards his touchdowns dropped from 41 to 20. His interceptions remained high, which has been a problem throughout his career. Some of that stems from the fact that he has never had a real running game in Detroit. To try to solve that problem, the Lions signed Reggie Bush away from the Miami Dolphins. Bush was given more carries in Miami than he had in New Orleans and mostly responded. He also is a threat as a receiver and the Lions hope that pairing him up with Johnson will add to his effectiveness. Johnson is coming off setting the single season receiving yards record and is widely regarded as the best wide receiver in football. Him and Stafford were able to connect everywhere on the field, save for the most important spot, the end zone, as Johnson finished with just 5 TDs. Nate Burleson is returning from injury to serve as the Lions number two receiver, but he doesn't scare anyone defensively. TE Brandon Pettigrew disappeared towards the end of last season, but when Stafford can find him, he can be productive for the Lions. The Lions offensive line is a huge question mark. Gosder Cherilus left and Jeff Backus retired, leaving C Dominic Raiola and Rob Sims as returning starters on the line. The play of left tackle Riley Reiff and right tackle Jason Fox will go a long way towards how the offense performs this season. The Lions defense actually wasn't as bad as I thought, ranking in the middle of the league against the pass and run. The middle of the Lions defensive line started to become what they envisioned when they drafted Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Suh had always lived up to the hype but last year was Fairley's coming out party. The Lions have brand new starters at defensive ends with the loss of Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Rookie Ezekiel Ansah will be thrown into the fire right away, and former Seahawk Jason Jones will start on the other end. Stephen Tulloch is strong at middle linebacker, which is good because I've never heard of the Lions other linebackers. Glover Quin is the new starting safety after being brought over from Houston, and pairing him with Louis Delmas gives the Lions a strong duo. Chris Houston isn't well known but he was strong at corner last season, and he will be joined by rookie Darius Slay. The weirdest thing about the Lions 2013 season will be seeing someone other than Jason Hanson kicking field goals. Hanson finally retired and it looks like David Akers will be his replacement. I detested Akers last season as he missed field goal after field goal for the 49ers, but he is only two years removed from being the best kicker in the league in 2011. Rookie Sam Martin will take over at punter. Special team specialist Michael Spurlock could give the Lions a shot in the arm at the return position. The Lions will win a few more games in 2013 but won't be back in the playoffs. I think the offensive line is way too unsettled and will lead to Stafford getting beat up and not starting the entire year. Another last place season awaits the long suffering fans of the Lions.

Prediction: 6-10

Thursday, August 22, 2013

NFL Divisional Previews - AFC South

The Houston Texans won their second straight AFC South division title, before falling short in the playoffs. The Texans have begun making the playoffs with regularity but now need to take that next step to becoming a Super Bowl contender. However, concerns literally ride on the back of Arian Foster. After winning just 2 games in 2011, the Colts, led by rookie quarterback Andrew Luck and an easy schedule won 11 games. The Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars served as the division punching bags and appear to be far behind being true threats to the Texans and Colts.  The Titans are still counting on Jake Locker to become a good quarterback, while the Jags have a new coach for the second time in two seasons.


1. Houston Texans

2012 Record: 12-4, AFC South champs
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (8th season Houston, 61-55 career)
Key Additions: WR DeAndre Hopkins, FB Greg Jones, CB Alan Ball, S Ed Reed, P Shane Lechler, K Randy Bullock
Key Losses: RB Justin Forsett, WR Kevin Walter, TE James Casey, OT Rashad Butler, DE/OLB Connor Barwin, S Glover Quin, K Shayne Graham, P Donnie Jones

2013 Outlook: The Texans were on fire to start the year last season. They were 11-1 after 12 games and appeared to be on track for homefield advantage and a favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. An embarrassing Monday night loss at New England seemed to derail their season, as they would lose two of their next three after that game, and then were dominated by the Patriots in the playoffs. Their struggles at the end of the season have led to questions about QB Matt Schaub. People wonder if he is good enough to bring a Super Bowl championship to Houston. Defenders of Schaub would say that the Texans haven't surrounded him with a ton of talent at the receiver position. WR Andre Johnson is good but is getting older and has started to slow down due to injuries. Kevin Walter wasn't cutting it as a number two receiver so he is now gone. The Titans are hopeful that they have found the complement to Johnson in rookie DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson. Tight end Owen Daniels is pretty good but not quite the player he was a couple seasons ago. The big question for Houston is the health of leading rush Arian Foster. It appears Foster will be kept out of the preseason with a sore back, but coach Gary Kubiak insists that Foster should be ready for Week 1. While the ground game wasn't as good last season as it has been in previous years, it still was effective enough. It helps to take a lot of pressure off Schaub as well, so if Foster can't go the Texans would have to hope that Ben Tate can recapture his 2011 form. The Texans have managed to maintain stability on their offensive line, led by left tackle Duane Brown and center Chris Myers. The Texans defense is pretty good but needs to improve their pass coverage. They were torched by Tom Brady on multiple occasions last season. Everyone knows about J.J. Watt, probably the best defensive player in the game right now. Watt put up 20.5 sacks, is constantly batting balls down at the line and just is a monster on the field. As long as he is healthy, the Texans will be imposing up front. Other strong pass rushers on the team are Antonio Smith and Whitney Mercilus. Smith could miss some of the season due to suspension. He got into a fight with Richie Incognito in last week's preseason game and swung his helmet at him. The Texans will be more than happy to welcome back LB Brian Cushing. Cushing missed most of last season after tearing his ACL. He has already returned for the preseason and will be ready to go Week 1. In order to help the struggles of the secondary, the Texans signed aging S Ed Reed from Baltimore. It will be interesting to see how Reed does outside of the Ravens system and how much he has left in the tank. Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph are back as cornerbacks. After missing his rookie season, Randy Bullock is ready to take over at kicker, while Shane Lechler is the new punter. Lechler isn't an upper echelon punter anymore but still more than serviceable. This season will ready ride on what kind of step forward Schaub can take as a player. The Texans were firing on all cylinders during most of last year, before it came crumbling down at the wrong time. I think they can find that mojo again, and will be definitely players in the battle for the AFC.

Prediction: 12-4

2. Indianapolis Colts 

2012 Record: 11-5, 2nd place AFC South
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano (2nd season Indianapolis, 2-3 career)
Key Additions: DE/OLB Bjoern Werner, QB Matt Hasselbeck, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, OT Gosder Cherilus, DE/DT Ricky Jean-Francois, NT Aubrayo Franklin, CB Greg Toler, S LaRon Landry
Key Losses: QB Drew Stanton, WR Donnie Avery, WR Austin Collie, OT Winston Justice, DE Clifton Geathers, DE/OLB Dwight Freeney, CB Jerraud Powers, S Tim Zbikowski

2013 Outlook: A large reason for the Colts turnaround last season was QB Andrew Luck. However, where I disagree is with those that seem to think that Luck has already arrived. Luck had some nice numbers but some of his numbers point to a player that is being crowned way too fast by people. He threw 18 interceptions and had a completion percentage of just 54 percent. Part of that was Bruce Arians fault for constantly passing, despite having a running back in Vick Ballard that was averaging over 4 yards per carry. He might improve upon those numbers this season due to new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton. Hamilton was his offensive coordinator at Stanford and I think was a great hire by Chuck Pagano.  This past off-season the Colts added Ahmad Bradshaw at running back, and with Arians now gone, maybe they will discover the run game this season. A new weapon at wide receiver for Luck will be former Raider Darrius Heyward-Bey who replaces Donnie Avery. Bey had his moments in Oakland but he definitely could use a fresh start where he won't be as burdened by the label of first round pick. Reggie Wayne looked revitalized last season, putting outstanding numbers, especially for a receiver in his mid 30's. Rookie T.Y. Hilton showed a lot of promise and could make a major leap in year number two. The Colts also have two potential studs at tight end with Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. With the Patriots tight ends in shambles, these two might be ready to take over the mantle of best tight end duo in the AFC. The Colts offensive line is mostly young and is helped out by Luck's mobility. Gosder Cherilus was brought in the off-season, to join a line without a lot of names you would have heard of. The defense was a weakness last season, so the Colts went out and added a lot of new faces. The defensive line has two new faces in former 49ers Aubrayo Franklin and Ricky Jean-Francois. Franklin has bounced around the league the last few seasons, so it remains to be seen how helpful he will be. Francois was stuck behind too many players in San Francisco, but showed some potential when he got the chance. Dwight Freeney is gone but Robert Mathis remains, and is still a strong presence on the defensive side. Pat Angerer will flank him at linebacker as he fights back from an injury plagued 2012 season. The Colts also added some players to their secondary including LaRon Landry and Greg Toler. Like the moves on the defensive line, these are moves that are tough to predict. They could work out, or these guys could be injured and add nothing. Vontae Davis proved to be a nice addition last season from Miami and the Colts are counting on him to serve as a steadying presence on the defense. On special teams, kicker Adam Vinatieri remains ageless, continuing his run of consistency. Pat McAfee is back at punter, and probably more well known for being arrested, than anything he has ever done on the field. A tougher schedule and a defense that still isn't very good will be the Colts undoing in 2013. It also remains to be seen just how good a coach Chuck Pagano really is. His courageous fight with cancer last season was a rallying cry for the team, but now he will be expected to lead the Colts throughout a full season. I expect Luck to improve upon his numbers some but am not yet convinced we are watching a future superstar. The Colts won't be a losing team this year, but they won't be a winning one either.

Prediction: 8-8


3. Tennessee Titans   

2012 Record: 6-10, 3rd place AFC South
Head Coach: Mike Munchak (3rd season Tennessee, 15-17 career)
Key Additions: G Chance Warmack, WR Justin Hunter, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Shonn Greene, WR Kevin Walter, TE Delanie Walker, G Andy Levitre, C Rob Turner, S Bernard Pollard
Key Losses: QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Javon Ringer, TE Jared Cook, G Steve Hutchinson, G Leroy Harris, OLB Will Witherspoon, CB Ryan Mouton, S Jordan Babineaux

2013 Outlook: You probably didn't notice the Titans 6-10 season last year. It wasn't all that interesting, and their best player, RB Chris Johnson, talks a better game than he plays these days. The Titans weren't very good offensively or defensively, ranking in the bottom part of the league is most categories. QB Jake Locker battled through injuries and inconsistency throughout 2012. It's hard to truly judge him yet as he injuries have been an issue his first two seasons. The Titans are hopeful he can remain upright this entire season and then they can truly judge where he is as a player. The aforementioned Johnson was better in 2012 than he was in 2011, but is still having issues playing consistently. His numbers would probably seem better too if he didn't keep talking about how he was going to rush for over 2,000 yards each year, and then not come close. He might be helped by the presence of Shonn Greene backing him up. Last season when Javon Ringer went down it pretty much left Johnson to carry the entire load. Greene can take some of those carries this season and could leave Johnson much more fresh. The Titans do have some talent at wide receiver with Nate Washington, Kendall Wright, and Kenny Britt. Kendall Wright had a strong rookie season and should continue to improve. Washington and Britt are more questionable. Washington still seems to be a viable deep threat, but is getting up there in age. Britt hasn't been the same since injuring himself and is no longer the dangerous threat he once was. Former 49er Delanie Walker is the new starting tight end, replacing the departed Jared Cook. The focus for the Titans on the offensive line was fortifying the guard position. They signed away Andy Levitre from Buffalo and drafted Chance Warmack in the first round. The Titans offensive line was already pretty good, so they should be a strength of the team this season. The Titans were atrocious on defense and they were equal opportunity bad, as they couldn't stop the run or pass. They are hoping the signing of Super Bowl winning S Bernard Pollard can strengthen their pass coverage. The Titans defense is filled with guys that are decent, but no one that stands out. The defense is relatively young so the Titans are hopeful that they have guys that will grow into their positions and improve with time. Someone like defensive end Derrick Morgan, who played well down the stretch last season. Rob Bironas has been a steady, consistent presence for years and that shouldn't change in 2013. Brett Kern is good enough for government work at punter. The Titans are a franchise stuck in purgatory. They aren't awful but they aren't a playoff team yet either. Another sub .500 season could lead to some major changes for next season.

Prediction: 7-9


4. Jacksonville Jaguars  

2012 Record: 2-14, last place AFC South
Head Coach: Gus Bradley (1st season Jacksonville, 0-0 career)
Key Additions: OT Luke Joeckel, RB Justin Forsett, WR Mohammed Massaquoi, OLB Geno Hayes, DT Roy Miller, CB Marcus Trufant, CB Alan Ball
Key Losses: RB Rashad Jennings, RB Greg Jones, WR Laurent Robinson, OLB Daryl Smith, CB Aaron Ross, S Dawan Landry

2013 Outlook: Honestly, it was hard mustering up the motivation to write about the Jaguars. I know I hate on them every year, but they are such a boring, insignificant franchise. I'm kind of surprised RB Maurice Jones-Drew hasn't made a huge stink to try to get out of there. It was recently announced that Blaine Gabbert will remain the starter for this season, edging out Chad Henne. Gabbert has plenty of detractors but he does have some promising statistics, such as a pretty decent completion rate. Now it helps that he can't get the ball deep and likes to dink and dunk, but I'm trying to be nice. One of the main reasons their season fell off a cliff last year was losing Jones-Drew to injury. He is back and ready to go this season, and if he can stay healthy, the Jags will definitely improve upon last year's two wins. The wide receiver group took a hit with Justin Blackmon's suspension for the first four games of the season. Blackmon was silent most of last year, then broke out in a huge way in a game against the Texans. It remains to be seen if he can have more games like that or if he will quickly flame out due to his off the filed transgressions. The brightest spot on last year's team was WR Cecil Shorts. Shorts led the team in catches, and touchdowns and looks far more ready than Blackmon to take the reigns as the team's number one receiver. TE Marcedes Lewis actually found the end zone last year, which was an improvement from his abortion of a season in 2011. The Jaguars smartly are trying to build their offensive line into a strong unit, and then get the rest of the team around them. They drafted Luke Joeckel number two last season and pairing him up with Eugene Monroe gives the Jaguars stability at both tackle positions. The rest of the line is aging and hurt, so those will be issues to address in the 2014 draft. The Jaguars defense stunk in 2012, especially their run defense. They signed Roy Miller from Tampa to try to help their run defense. They have a mix of young and old with their defensive ends. Tyson Alualu has been a bust as most people expected when the Jaguars drafted him. Jason Babin is the old veteran, who was shipped out of Philadelphia for being a cancer in the locker room. The pass defense could really struggle if the Jags can't get any pressure on the quarterback. It is mostly a rag tag group of players such as S Dwight Lowery and CB Alan Ball. At linebacker you probably have heard of Paul Posluszny, but he's still coasting off his reputation at Penn State, more than anything he has done in the NFL. It is too bad the Jaguars aren't better offensively because they have one of the best kickers in the league in Josh Scobee. P Bryan Anger was okay, but the pressure is on him to be more than okay considering how he was drafted in the third round in 2012 by Jacksonville. Good news Jags fans, I expect you to double your win total in 2013. The bad news is that means you will only win 4 games. This team is still years away from contending and just isn't filled with enough good players to truly be competitive.

Prediction: 4-12


Tuesday, August 20, 2013

2013 NFL Divisional Previews - NFC South

The Atlanta Falcons ran away with the NFC South in 2012, winning the division by 6 games. They also finally broke their playoff hex, narrowly defeating the Seahawks in the Divisional Round, before blowing a huge lead to the 49ers in the NFC Championship. Things shouldn't be so easy for them in 2013, as Saints coach Sean Payton will return. In addition to having perhaps the worst defense in the history of football, the Saints clearly missed their coach. The Carolina Panthers were a popular playoff pick last season, but Cam Newton disappointed and they dug themselves too big of a hole early on. It might be playoffs or fired for coach Ron Rivera. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers struggled down the stretch for the second straight season, and quarterback Josh Freeman is on the hot seat.


1. New Orleans Saints

2012 Record: 7-9, 3rd place NFC South
Head Coach: Sean Payton (7th season New Orleans, 67-37 career)
Key Additions: S Kenny Vaccarro, QB Luke McCown, TE Ben Watson, OT Jason Smith, DE/DT Kenyon Coleman, CB Chris Carr, CB Keenan Lewis, S Jim Leonhard
Key Losses: QB Chase Daniel, RB Chris Ivory, WR Devery Henderson, OT Jermon Bushrod, DE Turk McBride, DT Sedrick Ellis, OLB Scott Shanle, OLB Jonathan Casillas

2013 Outlook: 2012 was a year to forget for the New Orleans Saints. It might have been one of the worst seasons in franchise history and that's saying something for a franchise with a history like the Saints. They've had far worse records than 7-9 but from a sheer turmoil standpoint, its hard to imagine any season being worse. Things are much quieter and back to normal going into the 2013 season, as Sean Payton is back as the head coach. No one is happier about that than Saints quarterback Drew Brees. Brees still had a very strong season last year, but him and Payton have quite the bond, and I expect Brees to lower his interceptions this season, after throwing 19 last year. The Saints lost Chris Ivory out of their backfield but still have plenty of options in Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Mark Ingram. Ingram is the player to watch out of that group, as he has yet to live up to his first round status. Sproles doesn't run the ball much but is such a weapon as a receiver and so fast and hard to catch if he finds some open field. Thomas should probably get more carries, as when he does run the ball, he gains good chunks of yardage. Brees will still be throwing the ball to Lance Moore, Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham. Graham struggled through injuries and was unable to live up to his lofty 2011 numbers. Colston also struggles through injuries but when healthy remains a consistently good player. The Saints will have a new left tackle after Jermon Bushrod signed with the Bears in the off-season. Charles Brown will serve as his replacement, which is a big question mark as Brown is often injured. Jahri Evans is fantastic on the inside of the line, and is joined by other strong players Brian De Le Puente and Ben Grubbs. Besides the whole Bountygate scandal the biggest reason the Saints missed the playoffs last year, was the play of their historically bad defense. They finished next to last in the NFL in opponent's passing yards per game, and in last place in opponents rushing yards per game. They had a non-existent pass rush, only registering 30 sacks last season. They are switching to a 3-4 defense, which is pushing Will Smith to linebacker, and leaving pass rushing duties to Akiem Hicks and perhaps their best defensive player Cameron Jordan. Inside LB Jonathan Vilma is already dealing with injuries so expect to see a lot of David Hawthorne in his place. The Saints drafted S Kenny Vaccarro out of Texas, but for now he is behind Roman Harper and Jim Leonhard on the depth chart. Keenan Lewis was brought in from Pittsburgh to help out at cornerback. Special teams is strong for the Saints, led by kicker Garrett Hartley and by one of the league's best punters, Thomas Morstead. You can't deny the impact having Sean Payton back will have on this team. The defense needs to at least show minimal improvement, and with a schedule that doesn't appear to be all that tough, I expect the Saints to get back to double digit wins and an NFC south title.

Prediction: 10-6


2. Atlanta Falcons

2012 Record: 13-3, NFC South champs
Head Coach: Mike Smith (6th season Atlanta, 57-28 career)
Key Additions: CB Desmond Trufant, RB Steven Jackson, DE Osi Umeniyora
Key Losses: RB Michael Turner, OT Tyson Clabo, C Todd McClure, DE John Abraham, CB Brent Grimes, CB Dunta Robinson

2013 Outlook: With the Saints in shambles in 2012, the NFC South was ripe for the picking and the Falcons took advantage. More importantly, they finally won a playoff game during the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. This era has led the Falcons franchise to unprecedented heights. They gave the franchise their first back to back winnings seasons, and now have gotten the franchise into the playoffs for three straight seasons for the first time ever. However, as fans grew restless when they couldn't win a playoff game, they will grow restless if this team doesn't bring home a Super Bowl trophy. Ryan has a brand new contract and is entering his prime, and has weapons all over the field. Roddy White was his usual consistent self, and Tony Gonzalez appears to be ageless. Gonzalez had planned on retiring after last season but the Falcons were able to convince him to come back for one more season and a shot at a Super Bowl. He's got to be hoping that works out better for him than it did Brett Favre. Julio Jones became the breakout star the Falcons envisioned when they gave up a ton to move up and draft him in 2011. At running back it was obvious that Michael Turner had been run into the ground, so he was jettisoned in favor of Steven Jackson. Jackson has to be pumped to finally be playing for a winning team. The team will see some changes up front this season with Tyson Clabo leaving, and Todd McClure retiring. Clabo will be replaced by Mike Johnson who come opening day will be making his first NFL start at right tackle. Sam Baker and Justin Blalock are back on the left side, giving the Falcons some stability. Defensively, the Falcons were decent last season but nothing special. They will look different in some areas, especially at corner where both Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson are gone. 21-year-old Desmond Trufant will start opposite veteran Asante Samuel at cornerback. The Falcons have pretty good safeties in William Moore and Thomas DeCoud. Besides Sean Weatherspoon linebacker is a big question mark for the Falcons. Tight ends had success against the Falcons linebackers last season, especially Vernon Davis in the NFC Championship game. On the defensive line, Atlanta let John Abraham go and then brought in old man Osi Umeniyora as his replacement. Jonathan Babineaux and Kroy Bierrman will have to play as well and improve upon their play from last year for the Falcons to put pressure on the quarterback. Matt Bryant is one of the best kickers in football while punter Matt Bosher is serviceable. The Falcons should be a playoff team once again but I think the losses of Grimes, Robinson and Abraham, along with some of the youth on the defensive line, will hurt them.

Prediction: 10-6 


3. Carolina Panthers

2012 Record: 7-9, 2nd place NFC South
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (3rd season Carolina, 13-19 career)
Key Additions: DT Star Lotuleiei, WR Domenik Hixon, ILB Chase Blackburn, CB D.J. Moore, CB Drayton Florence, KR Ted Ginn Jr.
Key Losses: DT Ron Edwards, DT Andre Neblett, OLB Jason Phillips, CB Chris Gamble

2013 Outlook: What was supposed to be a breakout season for the Panthers in 2012, instead was another under .500 finish. They were doomed by a 1-6 start and the early struggles of QB Cam Newton. They played well enough down the stretch to keep Ron Rivera's job, but the pressure is on this year to get back to the playoffs. Newton got lost in the shuffle a bit with the emergence of rookies Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Rusell Wilson last season. For Carolina to take the next step Newton will have to continue to improve as a passer. His top target remains Steve Smith, and he also likes to go to tight end Greg Olsen. Otherwise, the cupboard is pretty bare. Brandon LaFell is alright, but he would be more effective as your number three guy, than a number two receiver. Once the strength of the team, the Carolina running game is now not very good. Newton is still a threat to run, but the Panthers would prefer that Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams could find some level of consistency. A lot of money was spent to keep both of them around and so far neither has been worth it. The Panthers hope that stability from last season on their offensive line will help the group improve. Their best players up front are left tackle Jordan Gross and center Ryan Kalil. They did release Geoff Hangartner recently and are set to start Gary Williams. Carolina's defense has a strong pass rush, led by Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy. They drafted Star Lotuleli to bolster their defensive tackle area and help improve their defense against the run. Linebacker could be a position of strength if Jon Beason can finally stay healthy. Beason was an up and coming linebacker that was compared to Patrick Willis but injuries have derailed his career. Second year man Luke Kuechly had a strong rookie season and should only get better. Drayton Florence takes over at corner for the retired Chris Gamble and on the other side is the man with the greatest name in football and maybe life, Captain Munnerlyn. Carolin's kicker is one Redskins fans know well, Graham Gano. He was strong last year but didn't get a ton of opportunities. Punter Brad Nortman goes mostly unnoticed, which for a punter, is usually a good thing. The Panthers are hoping they bolstered their return game with the signing of Ted Ginn Jr. I think the Panthers could make the playoffs in a different division but they won't be able to surpass the Falcons or Saints. I think they have hit their ceiling with Rivera as coach and will have to find the right guy to lead them to an above .500 season.

Prediction: 7-9


4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2012 Record: 7-9, last place NFC South
Head Coach: Greg Schiano (2nd season Tampa Bay, 7-9 career)
Key Additions: CB Johnthan Banks, QB Mike Glennon, RB Jeff Demps, FB Brian Leonard, WR Kevin Ogletree, TE Tom Crabtree, G Gabe Carimi, DT Andre Neblett, OLB Jonathan Casillas, CB Darelle Revis, S Dashon Goldson, P Chas Henry
Key Losses: RB LeGarrette Blount, WR Arrelious Benn, TE Dallas Clark, OT Jeremy Trueblood, DE Michael Bennett, CB E.J. Biggers, S Ronde Barber

2013 Outlook: A troubling trend continued for the Bucs in 2012, even with a new coach in Greg Schiano. The team got off to a pretty strong start and appeared to be a playoff contender but then once again fell apart down the stretch, finishing under .500. While the decline in 2011 could be traced to the defense, last season's decline mostly fell on the shoulders of QB Josh Freeman. Freeman continues to struggle with turnovers and the Bucs are on the precipice of moving on. They drafted Mike Glennon and he will be ready to step in if Freeman falters. A bright spot of the season was the emergence of rookie running back Doug Martin as a superstar. Martin was dominant at times and went on an incredible two week tear against the Raiders and Vikings last year. The Bucs also have some nice receiving weapons. Vincent Jackson had a very strong first year in Tampa. I always had though that Philip Rivers had kind of made him but Jackson proved he was very good no matter the quarterback. Mike Williams earned a big payday this offseason as their number two receiver. I think they paid Williams way too much but for the time being he is a strong receiver to have on the roster. Dallas Clark is gone at tight end but he was far removed by from being the effective tight end he was a Colt. Luke Stocker will take over, and the Bucs also brought in Tom Crabtree from Green Bay. Guard Carl Nicks will be back from injury that kept him out for the second half of last year, and another player returning from injury on the line is Davin Joseph. Right tackle Demar Dotson is not good, and left tackle Donald Penn isn't much better. The defense wasn't a complete abomination last season as they were in 2011. At least when it came to stopping the run, which the Bucs were first in the league again. But stopping the pass was a different story, as they finished dead last. That led to them making the move to trade for Darrelle Revis and sign him to a long-term contract. Revis is coming back from a torn ACL so it remains to be seen if he stays the shutdown corner he was before. But it was definitely a move the Bucs needed to make, made even better because they didn't have to give him any guaranteed money. They upgraded at safety, adding former 49er Dashon Goldson, who will replace Ronde Barber who finally retired. Mark Barron will be in his second year at safety and showed flashes of being a good player as a rookie. The Bucs will need someone to step up on defense to replace Michael Bennett who led the team in sacks last season. If Da'Quan Bowers can stay healthy maybe he can be that guy. Gerald McCoy has turned into a very good player and is multi-dimensional. He rushes the quarterback well for a defensive tackle and is a run stuffer. The leader at linebacker is former Nebraska Cornhustker Lavonte David who looks like he will quickly enter the upper echelon of linebackers. In July the Bucs cut kicker Connor Barth and signed former Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes. Tynes is coming off a career high in made field goals and should be a slight improvement over Barth. The Bucs maybe should have gotten a new punter as well, since Michael Koenen leaves a bit to be desired. The Bucs success this season or lack thereof will come down to two things. What type of season Josh Freeman has and whether or not the secondary improves significantly with the additions that were made. The secondary will definitely be better, I mean technically it can't be worse, but Freeman isn't good enough to lead the Bucs past the other teams in their division. This will be Mike Glennon's team come 2014, and maybe as early as sometime this season.

Prediction: 6-10

Thursday, August 15, 2013

2013 NFL Divisional Previews - AFC West

The AFC West is the Denver Broncos and everyone else. The Broncos won the division last season by 6 games over the San Diego Chargers. This division is so bad that the Oakland Raiders finished 4-12 and were actually two games ahead of the last place Kansas City Chiefs. Denver are the overwhelming favorites to take the division for a third straight season. However, a division title won't be good enough, as it is Super Bowl or bust for the Broncos. The Chargers finally have moved past the Norv Turner/A.J. Smith era, plucking Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy away to be their head coach. The Kansas City Chiefs made a splash by hiring former long-time Philadelphia Eagle head coach Andy Reid, and also trading for former 49ers quarterback Alex Smith. The Chiefs have talent and are now hopeful they have the right coach to lead them. The Oakland Raiders made a shocking move in that they didn't make a head coaching change for once. The Carson Palmer era was a failure, and now they look to Matt Flynn to lead them back into the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. 


1. Denver Broncos

2012 Record: 13-3, First place AFC West
Head Coach: John Fox (3rd season Denver, 100-87 career)
Key Additions: DT Sylvester Williams, RB Montee Ball, WR Wes Welker, C Ryan Lilja, G Louis Vasquez, DE Shaun Phillips, ILB Stewart Bradley, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, QB Quentin Jammer
Key Losses: RB Willis McGahee, WR Bradon Stokley, C Dan Koppen, DE Elvis Dumervil, DT Justin Bannan, DT Ty Warren, OLB D.J. Williams, ILB Keith Brooking, CB Tracy Porter, S Jim Leonhard

2013 Outlook: Five games into the 2012 season the Broncos were 2-3, and questions still remained about whether or not Peyton Manning would ever be the old Peyton prior to all of his neck surgeries. Those questions went away over the next 2 1/2 months as the Broncos won ten straight games to close the year, earning homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. However, playoff struggles that have become all too common throughout Manning's career reared their head in overtime against the Baltimore Ravens. Manning threw a bad interception, and the Ravens would hit the winning field goal in double overtime, sending the Broncos home prematurely. In the 2013 off-season, the Broncos added pieces that should make an already potent offense, even better. The highlight of those moves was plucking WR Wes Welker from the rival New England Patriots. Welker will team with breakout stars Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker to form one of the best wide receiver trios in football. Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreesen give the Broncos decent but not spectacular options at tight end. A major question mark for the Broncos is the run game. Willis McGahee was let go, and Knowshon Moreno has never lived up to the expectations placed upon him when selected in the first round. Ronnie Hillman will have a chance to compete for the job but it wouldn't be surprising if second round pick Montee Ball out of Wisconsin becomes the starting back. The offensive line is a strength and did a good job of keeping Manning upright and avoiding any dangerous situations with his neck. They added to the unit by taking away division rival San Diego's guard Louis Vasquez. Left tackle Ryan Clady gave up just one sack last season and his health might be the biggest key to the Broncos success besides Manning. The Broncos did lose center Dan Koppen to injury in training camp, but were able to coax Ryan Lilja out of retirement to take over for Koppen. The big question going into the season for Denver is their defense. America's bizarre insistence on using fax machines in 2013 came back to haunt Denver, who had a fax snafu cost them Elvis Dumervil. They are hopeful that former Charger Shaun Phillips will continue to play well, as he is coming off a 9.5 sack season last year. News got worse for the defense when it was learned that Von Miller could possibly be suspended the first four games of the season for a drug suspension. The secondary is iffy, with questions about how Rahim Moore will react after his gaffe in coverage played a huge part in the Broncos loss to the Ravens. They added Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie from Philadelphia, as the Eagles couldn't get rid of Cromartie fast enough. Champ Bailey finally showed signs of slowing down, especially in the playoff game when Torrey Smith dominated him. The Broncos are excellent on special teams, with kicker Matt Prater and punter Britton Colquitt combining to form one of the better kicker/punter duos. Returner Trindon Holliday had two touchdown returns during the season and then became a national name when he returned two kicks for touchdowns against the Ravens. Much like last season, the Broncos schedule appears to be pretty easy. Combining that and the talent they have I expect the Broncos to earn homefield advantage in the playoffs for the second straight season. However, I have seen too many Manning playoff failures to pick them to come out of the AFC as champions.

Prediction: 13-3


2. San Diego Chargers

2012 Record: 7-9, 2nd place AFC West
Head Coach: Mike McCoy (1st season San Diego, 0-0 career)
Key Additions: OT D.J. Fluker, ILB Manti Te'o, RB Danny Woodhead, OT King Dunlap, OT Max Starks, G Chad Rinehart, DE Dwight Freeney
Key Losses: OT Jared Gaither, NT Aubrayo Franklin, DE/OLB Shaun Phillips, ILB Takeo Spikes, CB Quentin Jammer, CB Antoine Cason, S Atari Bigby, KR Michael Spurlock

2013 Outlook: The writing was on the wall after the 2011 season that it was time for the Chargers to move on from the Turner/Smith era. But the Chargers were stubborn and because of that 2012 was another wasted, non-playoff season. Turner and Smith are finally gone, and now the Chargers are led by former Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. McCoy earned a lot of credit for adapting his offense to Tim Tebow's strengths in 2011, and was brought in to try to resuscitate Philip Rivers career. As Rivers weapons have disappeared so has Rivers effectiveness. Rivers had the worst yards per attempt average of his career last year and is already dealing with injuries to his wide receiver corps. Danario Alexander was lost for the year last week and Malcolm Floyd was hurt this week. Eddie Royal is back at receiver but it feels likes years ago since he was impressive as a rookie. Injuries have seemed to completely derail Antonio Gates career, sapping Rivers of one of his most dominant targets. Ryan Mathews has been a disappointment, a victim of way too much hype. The Chargers signed scrappy Danny Woodhead away from the Patriots, but he isn't someone that will likely make a ton of difference. The offensive line was atrocious last season so the Chargers tried to address it by drafting D.J. Fluker in the first round. The rest of the line is filled with also rans like King Dunlap and Chad Rinehart. The Chargers scooped up Dwight Freeney late in free agency and have to hope that he has a little something left in the tank. Their defensive ends Corey Liuget and Kendall Reyes showed some promise last year, and are players the Chargers are looking to build the defense around. The talk at linebacker will be Manti Te'o. Right now the talk around Te'o is about him being a victim of catfishing, but he hopes by the end of the year it will be about his play. Aside from Eric Weddle, the secondary is a huge question mark. Last year's starters at corner are gone, replaced by inexperienced players Shareece Wright and Derek Cox. Kicker Nick Novak missed just twice last season, although he only attempted 20 kicks. Punter Mike Scifres is strong and reliable. Things don't sound all that positive for San Diego but despite that I think the Chargers could sneak into the playoffs. I think a new voice and new leadership will do this team wonders. It will also help that they have almost no expectations, a far different scenario from the last few seasons. I think McCoy will help to bring back the good Philip Rivers and that some of young players on the defense will play better than people expect. They won't be a factor in the division race but I expect the Chargers to be right there battling for a Wild Card spot.

Prediction: 8-8


3. Kansas City Chiefs

2012 Record: 2-14, last place AFC West
Head Coach: Andy Reid (1st season Kansas City, 140-102-1 career)
Key Additions: OT Eric Fisher, RB Knile Davis, QB Alex Smith, QB Chase Daniel, FB Anthony Sherman, WR Donnie Avery, TE Anthony Fasano, DE/DT Mike DeVito, ILB Akeem Jordan, CB Sean Smith, CB Dunta Robinson
Key Losses: QB Matt Cassel, QB Brady Quinn, RB Peyton Hillis, WR Steve Breaston, TE Kevin Boss, OT Eric Winston, G Ryan Lilja, DT Glenn Dorsey, ILB Brandon Siler, CB Javier Arenas, S Abram Elam

2013 Outlook: 2012 couldn't have gone any worse for the Kansas City Chiefs. Besides going 2-14 and having a non-existent passing game they had to deal with the shocking circumstances involving the suicide of Jovan Belcher. The disappointing season led to the firing of coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Pioli. With six Pro Bowlers it was clear that the Chiefs had underachieved and it was time to go in a new direction. They went and got the best coach available in Andy Reid. Reid's time had run out in Philadelphia but there is no denying his history of success. It was obvious that Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn weren't the answers at quarterback, so they were jettisoned in favor of Alex Smith. Smith, like Reid had some success but his time had run out in San Francisco with the emergence of Colin Kaepernick. Reid has a history of bringing the best out of his quarterbacks so it will be very interesting to see how Smith plays under Reid. Smith was good during the latter part of his San Francisco years but never spectacular. With the talent they have, that may be all the Chiefs need. They have one of the best running backs in football in Jamaal Charles. Charles sometimes has trouble staying healthy but when he is almost no running back is as electrifying. The question hanging around is whether or not Reid is the coach to maximize the talents of Charles. He has a tendency to get pass happy and he can't do that in Kansas City, where the running game is clearly the best part of the offense. That's not to say the Chiefs don't have skill at the wide receiver position. Dwayne Bowe was disappointing last season but that was more because he had terrible quarterbacks attempting to get him the ball. With at least a decent quarterback in Alex Smith, Bowe should put up strong numbers in 2013. The Chiefs also added receiving weapons in Donnie Avery and Anthony Fasano at tight end. Fasano will team up with Tony Moeaki at tight end, and may eventually supplant him as Moeaki is injury prone. The Chiefs spent the first pick of the draft on Eric Fisher to bolster their offensive line. Branden Albert is on the other side, giving the Chiefs strong bookends to protect Smith. Jon Asamoah is another good player along the Chiefs offensive line. The Chiefs defense was a strength last season, but with such a pitiful offense was given no real chance to be a difference maker for the team. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are pass rushing monsters, combining for 19 sacks last season. Derrick Johnson was a Pro Bowler at linebacker, as was safety Eric Berry, who some though mostly made it on name recognition alone. Brandon Flowers is at the corner position and will be joined by newcomers Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson. The Chiefs are hopeful that 2012 first round pick Dontari Poe shows improvement after a disappointing rookie season. The Chiefs special teams coverage leaves something to be desired but kicker Ryan Succup is pretty consistent, as is punter Dustin Colquitt. The Chiefs are a chic pick to bounce back and make the playoffs this season. Most people point to the talent they already have and the additions of Reid and Smith. I believe over time those two will make a difference but this team only won 2 games last season for a reason. It will take time to build the Chiefs back into a playoff team. The main realistic goal for the team this season should be to try to regain the homefield advantage and atmosphere they once had at Arrowhead. The Chiefs will be better but are still a year away from being a playoff team.

Prediction: 6-10


4. Oakland Raiders

2012 Record: 4-12, 3rd place AFC West
Head Coach: Dennis Allen (2nd season Oakland, 4-12 career)
Key Additions: CB D.J. Hayden, QB Matt Flynn, RB Rashad Jennings, OLB Kevin Burnett, OLB Nick Roach, CB Mike Jenkins, CB Tracy Porter, S Charles Woodson, P Chris Kluwe, KR Joshua Cribbs
Key Losses: QB Carson Palmer, RB Mike Goodson, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, TE Brandon Myers, G Cooper Carlisle, DT Richard Seymour, DT Tommy Kelly, ILB Rolando McClain, CB Shawntae Spencer, S Michael Huff, P Shane Lechler 

2013 Outlook: The Raiders were seemingly moving in the right direction and then unnecessarily relieved Hue Jackson of his coaching duties. Instead of having Dennis Allen move them forward, they took a giant step back, falling 4 games worse as a team in 2012 from 2011. Now, as has seemingly been the case for what seems like eternity in Oakland they are rebuilding. Matt Flynn takes over for Carson Palmer. Flynn was supposed to be the guy in Seattle but was supplanted by Russell Wilson in the preseason and that was it for his Seahawks career. No one really knows what Flynn can do aside from a few decent games as a Packer. This Raiders team is a far cry in talent from those Packers teams Flynn was a member of. Flynn has Terrell Pryor and rookie Tyler Wilson behind him and there has been some talk that he could once again lose his job in the preseason, but I don't expect that to happen. Darren McFadden can't stay healthy to save his life and isn't someone the Raiders can realistically count on. Wide receiver is a position filled with question marks and inconsistency. Denarius Moore and Rod Streater have shown big play potential but have also shown their butterfingers just as much. Brandon Myers was consistent at tight end but he is now a New York Giant and it remains questionable who will pick up his slack. An already questionable offensive line suffered a terrible injury yesterday with the loss of left tackle Jared Veldheer for the season. Stefen Wisniewski has proven to be a very good draft pick but he can only do so much. After one of the worst defensive seasons in franchise history it was well known massive changes would occur. Just 2 starters return from last year's defense. Those two are defensive end Lamarr Houston and safety Tyvon Branch. Branch will be joined at safety by returning Raider Charles Woodson. The lasting image of Woodson from the 2012 season was him being outrun by Kaepernick in the playoffs. He doesn't seem to have much left and this appears to be another case of the Raiders signing an over the hill veteran with name value. The Raiders will start rookie first round pick D.J. Hayden at cornerback, along with former Cowboy disappointment Mike Jenkins. Former Saints Super Bowl hero Tracy Porter was signed from Denver, where had a memorable season opening interception return for touchdown and then disappeared. With so many new players having to learn to play together the Raiders could be even worse defensively. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski is one of the league's best and still has as much power in that booming leg as ever. The Raiders added annoying punter Chris Kluwe. It's a good thing Kluwe runs his mouth so much because it prevents attention from being paid to the fact that he isn't really any good. I expect it to be another playoff-less season in Oakland but I do think they will win a few more games this season. The key for this franchise is to take their lumps with Allen and try to stay the course for a few more seasons. The last thing this team needs is more upheaval.

Prediction: 6-10

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

2013 NFL Divisional Previews - NFC West

The NFC West has emerged from being the laughingstock of NFL divisions to what many would consider the best division. The division is highlighted by the defending NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers, and the emerging Seattle Seahawks. By the end of the 2012 season, the 49ers were a vastly different team from the one that started the season, but the winning results that coach Jim Harbaugh instilled remained. The Seahawks were mediocre for the first half of 2012, and then caught fire the second half of the year, and were tantalizingly close to making the NFC Championship game. The St. Louis Rams showed improvement under Jeff Fisher, but questions still remain about QB Sam Bradford. The Arizona Cardinals got off to a 4-0 start and then completely derailed, leading to the firing of coach Ken Whisenhunt. They're hopeful that new coach Bruce Arians and new quarterback Carson Palmer can right the ship.


1. San Francisco 49ers

2012 Record: 11-4-1, NFC West Champs, NFC Champs
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (3rd season San Francisco, 27-9-1 career)
Key Additions: S Eric Reid, RB Marcus Lattimore, QB Colt McCoy, WR Anquan Boldin, DT Glenn Dorsey, CB Nnamdi Asomugha, K Phil Dawson
Key Losses: QB Alex Smith, WR Randy Moss, TE Delanie Walker, NT Isaac Sopoaga, S Dashon Goldson, K David Akers, KR Tedd Ginn Jr.

2013 Outlook: The 49ers were 6-2 and while they had one of the better records in the NFL, it still felt like something was missing. Then QB Alex Smith left a game against St. Louis with a concussion and the Colin Kaepernick era was born. Kaepernick would light up the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football in his first ever start and never look back. Despite Smith being ready to play the next week, coach Harbaugh stuck with Kaepernick. He was roundly criticized for benching Smith but he proved to be right, as Kap took the 49ers right to the brink of winning the Super Bowl. This off-season, Smith was traded to the Kansas City Chiefs and now the team is completely Kap's. Some people think it is possible that Kap could suffer from a sophomore slump but to me he is way too talented and poised for that to happen. In addition to his excellent run skills, Kap has one of the best arms in football and the 49ers receivers showed instant improvement once he took over. One of those receivers was Michael Crabtree. Unfortunately for the 49ers Crabtree tore his achilles in mini-camps and will miss most of the 2013 season. The team is hopeful he can return by November or December. The trade for WR Anquan Boldin from the Baltimore Ravens looked like a steal before Crabtree was hurt and its importance became even greater with Crabtree's injury. Boldin will be the team's number one receiver going into the season. I would have preferred for Boldin to be the number two option, but in last season's playoffs Boldin shined. He almost single-handedly earned Joe Flacco his gigantic contract, as he muscled his way to tough catch after tough catch. The other receivers include Mario Manningham, who suffered an injury towards the end of last season. It isn't yet known when Manningham will return and the possibility is there that he will be cut from the team. There is some pressure on WR A.J. Jenkins to step up. Last year's first round pick couldn't even get on the field, and the Niners weren't exactly stacked at receiver. They drafted another receiver this year, Quinton Patton. Due to injuries Patton probably has a greater chance of getting playing time in his rookie year then Jenkins did. Gone are Randy Moss and Delanie Walker from the passing game. Moss wasn't anything special but he contributed when needed and seemed to take some pressure off Crabtree. Walker is an average player, that made some nice plays but also dropped the ball too much. The other key player is TE Vernon Davis. Davis and Kap couldn't seem to get on the same page during the regular season last year. However, that all changed once the playoffs started as Davis reverted back to his beast form. The 49ers are loaded at running back, still led by the greatest back in team history, Frank Gore. Year after year I think Gore will finally start to slow down and he continuously proves me wrong. I expect RB LaMichael James to see a lot more playing time this year, as he came on strong towards the end of last season. He isn't likely to play this year, but RB Marcus Lattimore is supremely talented and may prove to be another Gore like steal. Another strength area is offensive line. Joe Staley and Anthony Davis protect the ends, while Alex Boone and Mike Iupati are the power behind the Niners run game. After bringing back all their defensive starters in 2012, the Niners defense will see some new faces in 2013. Gone are Dashon Goldson, Isaac Sopoaga, and Ricky Jean-Francois. Also gone due to injury is CB Chris Culliver. The Niners have brought in beleaguered CB Nnamdi Asomugha and are hoping he can revert back to his Oakland Raiders play. CB Carlos Rodgers had a disappointing 2012 and the Niners have to hope he at least can be half the standout player he was in 2011. The 49ers drafted CB Eric Reid in the first round and will expect him to contribute right away. The defensive ends and linebackers remain a strength. Though he struggled towards the end of the year, Aldon Smith continued to make his presence felt as one of the best defensive players in football. Justin Smith had to battle through injuries but when healthy, there was no doubt the impact he had on a game, especially when it came to play of Aldon. When not beating the crap out of his teammates, my former high school mate Ahmad Brooks joins Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman to give the 49ers the best linebacking corps in football. Willis and Bowman are perennial Pro-Bowlers and no two defensive players may be important to their team. The 49ers have a new kicker, picking up longtime Brown Phil Dawson. Dawson is 38, but was easily the Browns best player the last few seasons. He should provide accuracy to a position that was sorely missing it last year with the struggles of David Akers. The 49ers bring back one of the best punters in football, Andy Lee. Gone from the return game is Ted Ginn Jr., which means that Kyle Williams will be back their terrifying 49ers fans every time the ball is kicked towards him. In two years under Harbaugh the Niners have gone to the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl. The next logical step is to win it and anything less will be a failure. Some teams can't handle expectations, but Harbaugh is a great leader of men, and I think the 49ers will live out their destiny this season.

Prediction: 12-4


2. Seattle Seahawks

2012 Record: 11-5, 2nd place NFC West
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (4th season Seattle, 61-58 career)
Key Additions: WR Percy Harvin, DE Cliff Avril, DE Michael Bennett, CB Antoine Winfield, CB Marcus Trufant
Key Losses: QB Matt Flynn, DT Alan Branch, KR Leon Washington

2013 Outlook: The Seahawks were a .500 team eight games into the 2012 season and it looked like another mediocre season under Peter Carroll was inevitable. But then the team, and more specifically QB Russell Wilson caught fire and the Seahawks went 7-1 in the second half of the season. They knocked off the Washington Redskins in the Wild Card Round and then nearly pulled off a miraculous comeback against the Atlanta Falcons in the Divisional Round. This has brought very high expectations for Seattle this season, and those were heightened even more when they traded for the dynamic Percy Harvin from the Minnesota Vikings. Unfortunately, as has been far too often the case for his career, Harvin is injured and will miss most of the season. That means that Wilson will continue to have to make plays with his feet and make the most out of a receiving corps that includes the underwhelming Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Doug Baldwin. The Seahawks are hoping that TE Zach Miller can build upon his strong postseason play. Wilson was certainly helped by having one of the best running backs in football behind him, Marshawn Lynch. Lynch is unstoppable if he gets into the open field and that happened a ton last season. The Seahawks line has some standout players, including tackle Russell Okung, and center Matt Unger but the rest of the unit is ho-hum. The Seahawks should be even better defensively this season with the additions of Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett and the return of Chris Clemons. That unit will have to gel quickly as Seattle will be without Bruce Irvin for the first four games as he serves a suspension for using banned substances. The Seahawks best area on the defense is their secondary. Brandon Browner, the way too talkative Richard Sherman, and the recently signed Antoine Winfield make up an impressive trio of corners. Then you add in dangerous safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor and it makes it very hard to pass against the Seahawks. The Seahawks weakness last year was run defense and that was highlighted in the playoff game against the Falcons, where Michael Turner was able to turn back the clock and actually be effective. Special teams is strong behind kicker Steven Hauschka and punter Jon Ryan. A big question mark will be the return game. Gone is Leon Washington, and Harvin was going to be his replacement which would have been an upgrade. Now, who knows who will handle the return duties until Harvin can play. The loss of Harvin is huge but certainly not a death knell. Seattle proved last year they were a strong team when Harvin wasn't around. However, what will hurt them this season is having that bulls eye on them that they didn't have last year. Any time a team has to go into Qwest Field they will be jacked up to try to overcome the Seahawks vaunted 12th man. I also think that Wilson is not going to be able to replicate his 2012 success. The Seahawks are a brash team and while that served them well last season, in a New York Jets kind of a way I believe it will backfire on them this season.

Prediction: 9-7


3. St. Louis Rams

2012 Record: 7-8-1, 3rd place NFC West
Head Coach: Jeff Fisher (2nd season St. Louis, 154-134-1 career)
Key Additions: WR Tavon Austin, TE Jared Cook, OT Jake Long
Key Losses: RB Steven Jackson, WR Danny Amendola, WR Brandon Gibson, S Quintin Mikell

2013 Outlook: The Rams showed definite improvement in 2012 under Jeff Fisher. Most impressive was their ability to give the San Francisco 49ers fits. They tied the NFC champions in San Francisco, and then defeated them in St. Louis. In year two of the Fisher era it is all about trying to take that next step, and overtake the Niners and Seahawks. In order to do that QB Sam Bradford will need to move from mediocre to slightly good to great. Problem is, he still suffers from a lack of weapons. That problem was made greater by the defection of RB Steven Jackson to the the Atlanta Falcons. That leaves the Rams with Daryl Richardson at running back. In other words, all the pressure will be on Bradford to perform. The Rams did try to add some receiving weapons for Bradford but also let his best weapon walk in Danny Amendola. They drafted Tavon Austin out of West Virginia, a speedy, diminutive sized wide receiver. Chris Givens is the other wide receiver you might have possibly heard of. They added TE Jared Cook from Tennessee in free agency. Cook is okay but not a player that any defense will ever have to game plan for. The biggest off-season signing for St. Louis was former Dolphin Jake Long. The signing of Long is designed to bolster Bradford's protection, which should potentially allow Bradford the chance to get the ball downfield deep, something he hasn't successfully done in his career. The rest of the Rams line isn't well known but they did draft former Alabama Crimson Tide Barrett Jones who is probably most known for arguing with AJ McCarron in the National Title game. The Rams best hope for winning games realistically will come from their young up and coming defense. Most know of Chris Long, but another end that had a strong year last season was Robert Quinn who finished the season with 10.5 sacks. The Rams are also strong at corner, with annoying Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins proving able to shut down most team's wide receivers. They have to be very good because the Rams safeties were a sieve. Last season's starters at safety are gone but the Rams don't really know what they have in Darian Stewart, Rodney McLeod, and T.J. McDonald. The linebacking corps is anchored by James Laurinaitis and could be even better with the drafting of Alec Ogletree out of Georgia. Kicker Greg Zuerlein can definitely hit the long field goal but struggles with his accuracy. Punter Johnny Hekker is pretty mediocre and could make things harder on the Rams defense with his inability to pin offenses back. I think the Rams will be competitive, because their defense will keep them in every game. But offensively, I can't see Bradford taking that leap with no real running game and no real weapons yet at receiver. Tavon Austin could turn into a weapon but to expect him to change everything as a rookie is asking too much. It will be another season that falls short of the playoffs in St. Louis.

Prediction: 7-9


4. Arizona Cardinals

2012 Record: 5-11, last place NFC West
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (1st season Arizona, 9-3 career)
Key Additions: G Jonathan Cooper, QB Carson Palmer, RB Stepfan Taylor, RB Rashard Mendenhall, DE Frostee Rucker, DE/OLB Quentin Groves, LB Lorenzo Alexander, ILB Karlos Dansby, CB Javier Arenas, S Yeremiah Bell, S Tyrann Mathieu
Key Losses: QB Kevin Kolb, QB John Skelton, RB Beanie Wells, RB LaRod Stephens-Howlings, WR Early Doucet, ILB Stewart Bradley, CB Greg Toler, CB William Gay, CB Michael Adams, S Adrian Wilson, S Kerry Rhodes

2013 Outlook: The Cardinals might have the most upheaval of any team in the 2013 off-season. Gone is the head coach (Whisenhunt), the leading passer (Kevin Kolb) and the leading rusher (LaRod Stephens-Howling). Replacing them are Bruce Arians, Carson Palmer, and Rashard Mendenhall. After dropping 11 of their final 12 games it is easy to see why sweeping changes were necessary. Palmer failed miserably in Oakland but he has to be better than the poo poo platter of Kolb, John Skelton and Brian Hoyer that the Cardinals put on the field last season. Honestly, Kolb wasn't that bad and actually led the team to a 4-0 start, but once he went down the Cardinals couldn't recover. Stephens-Howling and Beanie Wells were allowed to leave as the Cardinals rushing attack averaged a pathetic 3.4 yards per carry. Rashard Mendenhall was cast aside by the Steelers and the Cardinals are hoping he will play with a chip on his shoulder and be the Mendenhall that beat them in a Super Bowl a few years back. Behind him are Ryan Williams, who can't stay healthy, and new draft pick out of Stanford Stepfan Taylor. Palmer will have some weapons to throw to. One of those weapons is one of the best receivers in the game, Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald showed last season that no matter how talented a receiver you are, you still have to have a quarterback that is capable of getting you the ball. With Palmer, he should go back to having good numbers. Michael Floyd showed some promise as a rookie last season, and could be in line for a breakout season. WR Andre Roberts quietly had a strong season last year, so the Cardinals have three strong options at receiver. You've probably never heard of TE Rob Housler but he did have 45 catches last season, which is respectable. The area that may cause the Cardinals to implode yet again, is their horrific offensive line. They allowed 58 sacks last season and also couldn't get any push on the line, which killed any chance of the run game succeeding. That is the reason they took guard Jonathan Cooper with the seventh pick in the draft. They are also hoping that the return of Levi Brown from injury can help to solidify the line. Palmer is like a statue back there, so if he doesn't get protection things will get very ugly. The Cardinals have some talent defensively, they just have to stay healthy. Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell are two dangerous ends when healthy, and were making life miserable for quarterbacks in the first four games of 2012. They hope to have upgraded their linebacking corps with the signing of former Redskin Lorenzo Alexander. They also brought back Karlos Dansby, who in his three seasons in Miami, never really seemed to gel with the Dolphins. The secondary is anchored by Patrick Peterson, and he will be joined back there by fellow LSU Tiger Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu could become the starter quickly as the Cardinals have new starters at safety this season. CB Javier Arenas was picked up from Kansas City to help bolster their coverage with Peterson. Kicker Jay Feely had one of his best seasons last year, and Dave Zastudil was a top 5 punter. They still have Peterson back there to return kicks and although he didn't score last season, that may prove to his benefit as teams might have a false sense of confidence in kicking to him. The Cardinals made a lot of changes but I feel like they picked up a lot of pieces that are either mediocre or not ready to contribute. Plus, while coach Arians got some experience last season stepping in for Chuck Pagano, expectations will be much different now that he is the full time head coach. Add that to being in a tough division and it should be another sub .500 season in Arizona.

Prediction: 6-10