1. New Orleans Saints
2012 Record: 7-9, 3rd place NFC South
Head Coach: Sean Payton (7th season New Orleans, 67-37 career)
Key Additions: S Kenny Vaccarro, QB Luke McCown, TE Ben Watson, OT Jason Smith, DE/DT Kenyon Coleman, CB Chris Carr, CB Keenan Lewis, S Jim Leonhard
Key Losses: QB Chase Daniel, RB Chris Ivory, WR Devery Henderson, OT Jermon Bushrod, DE Turk McBride, DT Sedrick Ellis, OLB Scott Shanle, OLB Jonathan Casillas
2013 Outlook: 2012 was a year to forget for the New Orleans Saints. It might have been one of the worst seasons in franchise history and that's saying something for a franchise with a history like the Saints. They've had far worse records than 7-9 but from a sheer turmoil standpoint, its hard to imagine any season being worse. Things are much quieter and back to normal going into the 2013 season, as Sean Payton is back as the head coach. No one is happier about that than Saints quarterback Drew Brees. Brees still had a very strong season last year, but him and Payton have quite the bond, and I expect Brees to lower his interceptions this season, after throwing 19 last year. The Saints lost Chris Ivory out of their backfield but still have plenty of options in Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Mark Ingram. Ingram is the player to watch out of that group, as he has yet to live up to his first round status. Sproles doesn't run the ball much but is such a weapon as a receiver and so fast and hard to catch if he finds some open field. Thomas should probably get more carries, as when he does run the ball, he gains good chunks of yardage. Brees will still be throwing the ball to Lance Moore, Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham. Graham struggled through injuries and was unable to live up to his lofty 2011 numbers. Colston also struggles through injuries but when healthy remains a consistently good player. The Saints will have a new left tackle after Jermon Bushrod signed with the Bears in the off-season. Charles Brown will serve as his replacement, which is a big question mark as Brown is often injured. Jahri Evans is fantastic on the inside of the line, and is joined by other strong players Brian De Le Puente and Ben Grubbs. Besides the whole Bountygate scandal the biggest reason the Saints missed the playoffs last year, was the play of their historically bad defense. They finished next to last in the NFL in opponent's passing yards per game, and in last place in opponents rushing yards per game. They had a non-existent pass rush, only registering 30 sacks last season. They are switching to a 3-4 defense, which is pushing Will Smith to linebacker, and leaving pass rushing duties to Akiem Hicks and perhaps their best defensive player Cameron Jordan. Inside LB Jonathan Vilma is already dealing with injuries so expect to see a lot of David Hawthorne in his place. The Saints drafted S Kenny Vaccarro out of Texas, but for now he is behind Roman Harper and Jim Leonhard on the depth chart. Keenan Lewis was brought in from Pittsburgh to help out at cornerback. Special teams is strong for the Saints, led by kicker Garrett Hartley and by one of the league's best punters, Thomas Morstead. You can't deny the impact having Sean Payton back will have on this team. The defense needs to at least show minimal improvement, and with a schedule that doesn't appear to be all that tough, I expect the Saints to get back to double digit wins and an NFC south title.
Prediction: 10-6
2. Atlanta Falcons
2012 Record: 13-3, NFC South champs
Head Coach: Mike Smith (6th season Atlanta, 57-28 career)
Key Additions: CB Desmond Trufant, RB Steven Jackson, DE Osi Umeniyora
Key Losses: RB Michael Turner, OT Tyson Clabo, C Todd McClure, DE John Abraham, CB Brent Grimes, CB Dunta Robinson
2013 Outlook: With the Saints in shambles in 2012, the NFC South was ripe for the picking and the Falcons took advantage. More importantly, they finally won a playoff game during the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. This era has led the Falcons franchise to unprecedented heights. They gave the franchise their first back to back winnings seasons, and now have gotten the franchise into the playoffs for three straight seasons for the first time ever. However, as fans grew restless when they couldn't win a playoff game, they will grow restless if this team doesn't bring home a Super Bowl trophy. Ryan has a brand new contract and is entering his prime, and has weapons all over the field. Roddy White was his usual consistent self, and Tony Gonzalez appears to be ageless. Gonzalez had planned on retiring after last season but the Falcons were able to convince him to come back for one more season and a shot at a Super Bowl. He's got to be hoping that works out better for him than it did Brett Favre. Julio Jones became the breakout star the Falcons envisioned when they gave up a ton to move up and draft him in 2011. At running back it was obvious that Michael Turner had been run into the ground, so he was jettisoned in favor of Steven Jackson. Jackson has to be pumped to finally be playing for a winning team. The team will see some changes up front this season with Tyson Clabo leaving, and Todd McClure retiring. Clabo will be replaced by Mike Johnson who come opening day will be making his first NFL start at right tackle. Sam Baker and Justin Blalock are back on the left side, giving the Falcons some stability. Defensively, the Falcons were decent last season but nothing special. They will look different in some areas, especially at corner where both Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson are gone. 21-year-old Desmond Trufant will start opposite veteran Asante Samuel at cornerback. The Falcons have pretty good safeties in William Moore and Thomas DeCoud. Besides Sean Weatherspoon linebacker is a big question mark for the Falcons. Tight ends had success against the Falcons linebackers last season, especially Vernon Davis in the NFC Championship game. On the defensive line, Atlanta let John Abraham go and then brought in old man Osi Umeniyora as his replacement. Jonathan Babineaux and Kroy Bierrman will have to play as well and improve upon their play from last year for the Falcons to put pressure on the quarterback. Matt Bryant is one of the best kickers in football while punter Matt Bosher is serviceable. The Falcons should be a playoff team once again but I think the losses of Grimes, Robinson and Abraham, along with some of the youth on the defensive line, will hurt them.
Prediction: 10-6
3. Carolina Panthers
2012 Record: 7-9, 2nd place NFC South
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (3rd season Carolina, 13-19 career)
Key Additions: DT Star Lotuleiei, WR Domenik Hixon, ILB Chase Blackburn, CB D.J. Moore, CB Drayton Florence, KR Ted Ginn Jr.
Key Losses: DT Ron Edwards, DT Andre Neblett, OLB Jason Phillips, CB Chris Gamble
2013 Outlook: What was supposed to be a breakout season for the Panthers in 2012, instead was another under .500 finish. They were doomed by a 1-6 start and the early struggles of QB Cam Newton. They played well enough down the stretch to keep Ron Rivera's job, but the pressure is on this year to get back to the playoffs. Newton got lost in the shuffle a bit with the emergence of rookies Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Rusell Wilson last season. For Carolina to take the next step Newton will have to continue to improve as a passer. His top target remains Steve Smith, and he also likes to go to tight end Greg Olsen. Otherwise, the cupboard is pretty bare. Brandon LaFell is alright, but he would be more effective as your number three guy, than a number two receiver. Once the strength of the team, the Carolina running game is now not very good. Newton is still a threat to run, but the Panthers would prefer that Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams could find some level of consistency. A lot of money was spent to keep both of them around and so far neither has been worth it. The Panthers hope that stability from last season on their offensive line will help the group improve. Their best players up front are left tackle Jordan Gross and center Ryan Kalil. They did release Geoff Hangartner recently and are set to start Gary Williams. Carolina's defense has a strong pass rush, led by Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy. They drafted Star Lotuleli to bolster their defensive tackle area and help improve their defense against the run. Linebacker could be a position of strength if Jon Beason can finally stay healthy. Beason was an up and coming linebacker that was compared to Patrick Willis but injuries have derailed his career. Second year man Luke Kuechly had a strong rookie season and should only get better. Drayton Florence takes over at corner for the retired Chris Gamble and on the other side is the man with the greatest name in football and maybe life, Captain Munnerlyn. Carolin's kicker is one Redskins fans know well, Graham Gano. He was strong last year but didn't get a ton of opportunities. Punter Brad Nortman goes mostly unnoticed, which for a punter, is usually a good thing. The Panthers are hoping they bolstered their return game with the signing of Ted Ginn Jr. I think the Panthers could make the playoffs in a different division but they won't be able to surpass the Falcons or Saints. I think they have hit their ceiling with Rivera as coach and will have to find the right guy to lead them to an above .500 season.
Prediction: 7-9
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2012 Record: 7-9, last place NFC South
Head Coach: Greg Schiano (2nd season Tampa Bay, 7-9 career)
Key Additions: CB Johnthan Banks, QB Mike Glennon, RB Jeff Demps, FB Brian Leonard, WR Kevin Ogletree, TE Tom Crabtree, G Gabe Carimi, DT Andre Neblett, OLB Jonathan Casillas, CB Darelle Revis, S Dashon Goldson, P Chas Henry
Key Losses: RB LeGarrette Blount, WR Arrelious Benn, TE Dallas Clark, OT Jeremy Trueblood, DE Michael Bennett, CB E.J. Biggers, S Ronde Barber
2013 Outlook: A troubling trend continued for the Bucs in 2012, even with a new coach in Greg Schiano. The team got off to a pretty strong start and appeared to be a playoff contender but then once again fell apart down the stretch, finishing under .500. While the decline in 2011 could be traced to the defense, last season's decline mostly fell on the shoulders of QB Josh Freeman. Freeman continues to struggle with turnovers and the Bucs are on the precipice of moving on. They drafted Mike Glennon and he will be ready to step in if Freeman falters. A bright spot of the season was the emergence of rookie running back Doug Martin as a superstar. Martin was dominant at times and went on an incredible two week tear against the Raiders and Vikings last year. The Bucs also have some nice receiving weapons. Vincent Jackson had a very strong first year in Tampa. I always had though that Philip Rivers had kind of made him but Jackson proved he was very good no matter the quarterback. Mike Williams earned a big payday this offseason as their number two receiver. I think they paid Williams way too much but for the time being he is a strong receiver to have on the roster. Dallas Clark is gone at tight end but he was far removed by from being the effective tight end he was a Colt. Luke Stocker will take over, and the Bucs also brought in Tom Crabtree from Green Bay. Guard Carl Nicks will be back from injury that kept him out for the second half of last year, and another player returning from injury on the line is Davin Joseph. Right tackle Demar Dotson is not good, and left tackle Donald Penn isn't much better. The defense wasn't a complete abomination last season as they were in 2011. At least when it came to stopping the run, which the Bucs were first in the league again. But stopping the pass was a different story, as they finished dead last. That led to them making the move to trade for Darrelle Revis and sign him to a long-term contract. Revis is coming back from a torn ACL so it remains to be seen if he stays the shutdown corner he was before. But it was definitely a move the Bucs needed to make, made even better because they didn't have to give him any guaranteed money. They upgraded at safety, adding former 49er Dashon Goldson, who will replace Ronde Barber who finally retired. Mark Barron will be in his second year at safety and showed flashes of being a good player as a rookie. The Bucs will need someone to step up on defense to replace Michael Bennett who led the team in sacks last season. If Da'Quan Bowers can stay healthy maybe he can be that guy. Gerald McCoy has turned into a very good player and is multi-dimensional. He rushes the quarterback well for a defensive tackle and is a run stuffer. The leader at linebacker is former Nebraska Cornhustker Lavonte David who looks like he will quickly enter the upper echelon of linebackers. In July the Bucs cut kicker Connor Barth and signed former Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes. Tynes is coming off a career high in made field goals and should be a slight improvement over Barth. The Bucs maybe should have gotten a new punter as well, since Michael Koenen leaves a bit to be desired. The Bucs success this season or lack thereof will come down to two things. What type of season Josh Freeman has and whether or not the secondary improves significantly with the additions that were made. The secondary will definitely be better, I mean technically it can't be worse, but Freeman isn't good enough to lead the Bucs past the other teams in their division. This will be Mike Glennon's team come 2014, and maybe as early as sometime this season.
Prediction: 6-10
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