Cram Session - Week 6

Thursday, October 8

Indianapolis (2-2) at Houston (1-3), Pick Em'

The Colts survived a week without Andrew Luck and moved back to .500 after an 0-2 start to the season. It looks like Luck will be back under center tonight in another divisional matchup, this time against the Texans and their hapless defense. I don't think giving up an average of 27 points per game was what Houston had in mind when they selected Jadaveon Clowney to join J.J. Watt. Thankfully for the Texans the AFC South is a dumpster fire and with a win tonight, Houston would remain in the thick of things for the division crown. That would mean they have to beat Indianapolis which has a 15 game divisional winning streak. This game will also be Andre Johnson's homecoming to Houston, but after being held without a catch and not even being targeted in his past two games, I am not sure anyone will notice. After this game the Colts play seven straight non divisional games, and that is when we will truly find out of if the Colts are contenders or fluke fraud pretenders.

Prediction: Houston 26, Indianapolis 22

Games That Matter To Me

Navy (4-0) at #15 Notre Dame (4-1)

Notre Dame was behind the eight ball almost immediately at Clemson and despite their best efforts to fight back and win the game, they fell short. The Irish were undone by their four turnovers and also the inability of the offense to get a running game going. It brought back nightmarish memories to the Irish's late season collapse last season after a 5-0 start to the year. Notre Dame better have gotten over that tough loss quickly though, because Navy is coming to town and if recent history is any indication it means the Irish are in for a fight. People still dismiss Navy as just a service academy team, but they haven't been paying attention for the better part of a decade. Vegas is definitely not paying attention as I can't understand why they think the Irish are two touchdown favorites. Every year the Irish know exactly what to expect from Navy and every year they usually struggle to stop the Midshipmen offense. A lot of that credit goes to Navy QB Keenan Reynolds. Reynolds has been on fire this year, rushing for 9 touchdowns this season, including 5 in a win against East Carolina a couple weeks ago. Even a quiet game like last week against Air Force where he was held without a rushing touchdown still amounted to his highest rushing yardage of the season. Where the Irish should win the game is their ability to overwhelm Navy's offense. Notre Dame will be bigger at every position and that should mean plenty of opportunities for C.J. Prosise and Will Fuller. Everyone wants to talk about are the Irish still playoff contenders, but to me, they have seven games left this season and cliche as it is, they need to take it one week at a time. If they handle their business, everything else will take care of itself. That starts with not overlooking Navy and being ready for a fight on Saturday.

Prediction: Notre Dame 30, Navy 24

Wisconsin (3-2, 0-1) at Nebraska (2-3, 0-1)

This game has sure lost the luster it looked like it might have prior to the season starting. The Huskers have been terrible this season and Wisconsin hasn't been much better. Each team has had a different set of issues. The Badgers have struggled mightily offensively, while the Huskers have been terrible defensively. The Huskers haven't just been losing games, they have been finding new ways to make their losses even more gut wrenching each week. This last game against Illinois saw Nebraska blow a 13-0 4th quarter lead, including a final drive where once again the secondary allowed a receiver to get behind them on a deep ball, when it was obvious that the play would be a deep pass. The conditions were not ideal but Tommy Armstrong had one of the worst games of his career, including a brain dead decision late in the game to throw the ball when the Huskers were trying to bleed the clock. The Huskers clearly miss Ameer Abdullah, as his replacement Terrell Newby has not yet found his groove. Nebraska will have its work cut out for them against a Badgers defense that is allowing just 9.6 points and 278 yards per game. Nebraska should try to commit to the run in this game, and stick with it, even if it isn't working right away. Then that can open up opportunities for Jordan Westerkamp and Brandon Reilly. This is the first true road game of the season for Wisconsin and like Nebraska they miss their big time back Melvin Gordon. Besides one game against Hawaii, Taiwan Deal hasn't gotten much traction. Without a run game, it is exposing QB Joel Stave. Stave was especially bad last week at home against Iowa, throwing two interceptions. However, the Huskers secondary may be the cure he needs for his ails. I went back and forth on my prediction for this one. Both teams are equally mediocre so I lean towards the Huskers homefield advantage. It isn't nearly what it was once was, but it should count for something on Saturday, Lord help Mike Riley if it doesn't.

Prediction: Nebraska 27, Wisconsin 23


Top 10

Maryland (2-3, 0-1) at #1 Ohio State (5-0, 1-0)

My gut was telling me to pick a close game between Indiana and Ohio State and I didn't listen! Ohio State had to get a goal line stop at the end of the game to avoid going to overtime with the Hoosiers. Cardale Jones was uneven once again but Ezekiel Elliott was a wrecking ball and you could say literally carried the Buckeyes to victory. The Maryland Terrapins are a dumpster fire and if Ohio State can't beat this sorry squad at home by at least three touchdowns it is time for another team to be placed number one in the country.

Prediction: Ohio State 45, Maryland 14

#2 TCU (5-0, 2-0) at Kansas State (3-1, 0-1)

The Horned Frogs have been tested on the road and so far have scraped by, but that all could end in Manhattan, KS on Saturday night. The Wildcats gave Oklahoma State all they could handle in Stillwater, despite dealing with more injuries at the quarterback position. Joe Hubener will make the start in this game. Hubener was hurt early in the game against Oklahoma State, replaced by Kody Cook and then inserted back in the game when Cook was injured. Hubener was the backup to start the season but the Wildcats have remained very competitive despite all the injuries and uncertainty at the most key position on the field. A lot of that is due to their recently turned 76-year old coach Bill Snyder. The Wildcats offensive weapons don't wow you but TCU has been dealing with a ton of injuries to their defense and have been a revolving door for offenses playing against them. TCU's offensive weapons like Trevone Boykin, RB Aaron Green and WR Josh Doctson will make their share of plays but I can't believe that they can just go through this entire season unscathed winning shootouts. TCU got a lucky bounce against Texas Tech on the road in order to win and I feel Kansas State is a much better team. Sometimes you have to be bold and pick the upset.

Prediction: Kansas State 48, TCU 44

#3 Baylor (4-0, 1-0) at Kansas (0-4, 0-1)

Baylor's lowest output offensively thus far this season is 56 points. I feel confident in saying they won't score less than than against winless Kansas. The Jayhawks are facing the real possibility of going 0-12 after dropping all three of their non-conference games. Baylor's offensive stats are insane, WR Corey Coleman already has 11 touchdowns this season and quarterback Seth Russell has thrown 19 touchdowns.

Prediction: Baylor 66, Kansas 21

#4 Michigan State (5-0, 1-0) at Rutgers (2-2, 0-1)

Somehow the Spartans could only beat terrible, awful Purdue by three at home. Their one signature win this year, at home against Oregon, looks meaningless now after the way the Ducks were killed by Utah. They have a week to get things right as they go to Michigan next week and right now I would have no hesitancy picking the Wolverines to win that game. A night game at Rutgers looms as a trap game, but Rutgers is pretty terrible and I am giving Sparty the benefit of the doubt that they won't lay another egg on Saturday.

Prediction: Michigan State 31, Rutgers 14

#23 California (5-0, 2-0) at #5 Utah (4-0, 1-0)

The Golden Bears are 5-0 but after years of being a downtrodden program some questions still remain about just how legitimate of a team they really are. Where there aren't questions are about their QB Jared Goff. The junior has started the year on fire with 15 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and a 70% completion percentage. Goff's favorite target is WR Kenny Lawler, who leads the Golden Bears with 8 receiving touchdowns. The Utes had a bye after thrashing Oregon on the road, a win that catapulted them all the way to number five in the polls. The Utes now go from being the hunters to the hunted and it will be interesting to see how they respond, starting with this game. Utah has one of the better defenses in the country, so it will be intriguing to see how they do in containing Goff and Lawler. Utah is more of a power running team than a passing team and average more yards per game through the ground than through the air. QB Travis Wilson personifies this as teams usually have to be more concerned with his legs than his arm. Wilson burned the Ducks to the tune of 100 yards rushing and a touchdown, averaging almost 17 yards per carry. I think the bye week will serve Utah well and gave them a chance to refocus after a huge win. It will prevent this game from being a letdown spot and the Utes should relatively cruise to their fifth win of the season.

Prediction: Utah 38, California 24

Georgia Tech (2-3, 0-2) at #6 Clemson (4-0, 1-0)

Next time I start to annoint a team based on a couple of blowouts against poor competition, I need to remind myself of the fluke frauds that Georgia Tech have turned out to be. The Yellow Jackets have lost three games in a row since they started playing teams with a pulse. The Tigers nearly pulled a Clemson last week and blew a big lead against the Irish. They were saved by some questionable play calling by Notre Dame and remained in the thick of the playoff race. As coach Dabo Swinney continues to try to remake Clemson's image, this is another spot where the Tigers can do that. A lot of energy went into the Notre Dame game, so this could be a letdown spot. The fact is though that the Yellow Jackets are so bad, Clemson could let down and still win by double digits.

Prediction: Clemson 41, Georgia Tech 24

#7 LSU (4-0, 2-0) "at" South Carolina (2-3, 0-3)

This game has been moved from Columbia, SC to Baton Rouge, LA due to the flooding that hit Columbia last week. Things are getting ugly for Steve Spurrier. The only remaining SEC game that the Gamecocks are likely to be favored in is when they play Vanderbilt. Everyone thinks Spurrier is hilarious when he pops off on other coaches struggles, so I hope some of those coaches take the time to talk back now that Spurrier coaches a horrible team. RB Leonard Fournette continued his streak of 200 yard plus rushing games and has to be the Heisman favorite at this point. The Tigers have to thank their lucky stars for him beacuse without him, they might average about 7 points a game with the woeful Brandon Harris at quarterback. It is amazing what Fournette does week after week because the Tigers have no passing game to speak of. Because of that they don't really blow out teams so I expect the Gamecocks to hang around at home, but LSU to ultimately win rather comfortably.

Prediction: LSU 32, South Carolina 20

Arkansas (2-3, 1-1) at #8 Alabama (4-1, 1-1)

Bret Bielema and Arkansas got a much needed win against Tennessee last week, while Alabama told Vegas to never make them underdogs again, decimating Georgia on the road 38-10. Nick Saban took great delight in telling the media how wrong they were to try to count his team out. I saw one ridiculous headline last week asking if Nick Saban might be in trouble if Alabama lost that game to Georgia. I guess we will never find out (sarcasm). Arkansas has more talent than their 2-3 record would suggest and statistically they are pretty even with the Crimson Tide. The Razorbacks quarterback/running back combo of Brandon Allen and Alex Collins isn't far off from Bama's combo of Jake Coker and Derrick Henry. The difference in this game will be defense, as the Tide have a far better defense than the Razorbacks. No disrespect to the newly ranked Toledo Rockets but if you can't beat Toledo at home, you don't have a prayer of beating Alabama on the road.

Prediction: Alabama 34, Arkansas 20

#10 Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0) "at" Texas (1-4, 0-2) in Dallas, Texas

Boy is it getting ugly in Austin. In the midst of being thrashed by TCU, Texas CB Kris Boyd retweeted a tweet at halftime talking about transferring. He has since apologized of course and I give him credit at least for not claiming he was hacked. Oklahoma was pretty under the radar for most of the season but has cracked the top 10 after crushing West Virginia at home. Now there is talk of the Sooners being a playoff contender but if you know a Bob Stoops coached team, they will likely find one or two games to lose that they should win. However, this rivalry game will not be one of them. The Longhorns crappy defense will have no answer for the Sooners high powered offense led by QB Baker Mayfield.

Prediction: Oklahoma 46, Texas 16

Last Week: 7-3
Overall: 43-9

NCAA Men's Championship - Indianapolis, Indiana

#1 Wisconsin (36-3) vs. #1 Duke (34-4)

Most fans probably wanted this game to be Kentucky versus Duke, but I'm happier with this matchup. Wisconsin proved what I long believed, that they were a better team than Kentucky. But all the good will from them ending Kentucky's bid at history will mean nothing if they don't finish the job tonight.

Duke trailed Michigan State 14-6 early in the Final Four and then completely dominated the game the rest of the way. It was quite obvious that the Spartans had nowhere near the caliber of player that Duke was throwing at them.

Wisconsin led Kentucky most of the way in their Final Four matchup but the Wildcats rallied late to take a four point lead. The Badgers didn't fold and Kentucky's offense was a comedy of errors the last few minutes, while Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky led the way for Wisconsin to pull off the "upset".

These teams played each other in December with Duke winning in Madison 80-70. However, I don't expect that game to mean much of anything tonight. Wisconsin is sky high after beating the Cats and Dekker has been shooting out of his mind in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils have a hot player of their own, F Justise Winslow. Sparty had no answer for Winslow, along with any other team Duke has faced in the Tournament this year. After a quiet Sweet 16 and Elite 8, Jahlil Okafor resumed being one of the most dominant players in college basketball against Michigan State. Senior guard Quinn Cook had his fifth consecutive double digit scoring game and his second straight game with zero turnovers. Even bench player Grayson Allen got in on the scoring, including a classic white boy dunk. Allen will have zero impact on tonight's game and I expect both teams to exhaust their starters and leave it all out on the floor. The most intriguing matchup in this game will be the battle down low between Kaminsky and Okafor. Kaminsky had no problems against the bigs of Kentucky and has experience playing Okafor so there will be no intimidation factor. Winslow will have his hands full with Nigel Hayes and Dekker. Hayes was off and on against Kentucky and sometimes when he shoots the ball you want to scream at him for taking such a dumb shot. Dekker disappeared from the Badgers offense too much on Saturday, so Wisky has to a better job of keeping him constantly involved tonight.

Duke has the advantage at the guard position with Cook, Tyus and Matt Jones. Bronson Koenig made some big shots on Saturday but became a little too shot happy and at times messed up the flow of the Badgers offense. Josh Gasser didn't play very well on Saturday and with the skill that Duke has at the guard position he needs to be much better tonight. Traevon Jackson will see some time off the bench but he is still getting his flow of being back in the lineup, so Koenig should continue to receive the majority of the playing time.

Kaminsky, Dekker and Hayes will be able to neutralize Okafor and Winslow. I think Cook and the Jones' will have strong games tonight but I also think that Wisconsin will be able to force them into turnovers and also mitigate their impact. The people talking about how Wisconsin will have nothing left after beating Kentucky on Saturday are foolish. Kaminsky didn't come back this year to just beat Kentucky, he came back to win a title and will have plenty left to give to the Badgers. Wisconsin has won their last four tournament games by seven points so I am picking that streak to continue, as the Badgers win their first national championship in 74 years.

Prediction: Wisconsin 75, Duke 68

2015 Final Four - Indianapolis, Indiana

#7 Michigan State (27-11) vs. #1 Duke (33-4)

The legend of Tom Izzo continues to grow as he has steered another Spartans team to the Final Four. Nevermind that he hasn't won a title in 15 years, the man that can't recruit or beat Coach K or Roy Williams is a genius! Snark aside, the consistent run of success by Michigan State is impressive. They trailed Oklahoma and Louisville for most of their games last week but managed to pull out victories each time.

Senior guard Travis Trice has been the unquestioned leader of this Spartans run. He is averaging almost 20 points per game in the Tournament and has also been careful with the ball, turning it over 2 times or less in the Spartans last three games. Aside from his performance against Virginia, junior Denzel Valentine has been there to complement Trice. G Bryn Forbes played huge minutes coming off the bench against Louisville in the Elite Eight. Branden Dawson cleans up Trice, Forbes and Valentine's messes, averaging 9 rebounds a game in the Tournament. Other members of the Spartans frequent rotation includes forward Gavin Schilling, guard Lourawls Nairn Jr, also known as Tum Tum, forward Matt Costello, and forward Marvin Clark Jr. Outside of Valentine, the Spartans don't have too many bigs, or guys to clean up down low and that could be a problem against Jahlil Okafor and Duke. However, Sparty shoots the ball so well that it hasn't often been an issue. When these teams met way back when on November 18, an 81-71 Duke victory, Dawson, Valentine and Trice played well but the rest of the Spartans didn't too much. Michigan State did shoot 50% but Duke shot even better at 54%, and the difference was Duke hit 50% of their three pointers while Michigan State hit just 25%.

The Blue Devils outlasted Utah in an ugly game, and then pulled away from Gonzaga in the second half to reach their first Final Four in five years. Most impressive about Duke's wins over Utah and Gonzaga was that Jahlil Okafor didn't contribute very much to either of them. The best player on the floor for Duke in those games was F Justise Winslow. Winslow and Dawson will be a fun matchup to watch on the blocks. G Tyus Jones and Trice will set the pace for each of their teams respectively and attempt to get the upper hand against each other. The Spartans can't overlook Blue Devils sophomore guard Matt Jones, who erupted for 16 points against Gonzaga. The other guard, Quinn Coke had a team high 19 points in the November win against Michigan State, and handed out 6 assists with 0 turnovers. If he plays nearly that well on Saturday, the Spartans magical run is definitely ending. Okafor was quiet last week but with his size advantage against the Spartans, I expect to see a more dominant effort like he put up against them in the first meeting. Duke's limited bench has been an exhausted talking point all season, but it hasn't really hampered them 37 games into the season, so I don't expect it to now. However, if they go on to play Kentucky in Monday's final, they will be tough pressed to beat the Wildcats with their potentially 10 deep rotation.

You can't take too much from November's matchup as where a team is in April compared to then is nothing alike. I expect the Spartans to follow their pattern from last week and get out of the blocks slowly and then crawl back and make a game of it. However, unlike Oklahoma and Louisville, Duke will go into another gear and pull away with the victory and get back to their first NCAA title game since their last championship in 2010.

Prediction: Duke 77, Michigan State 70


#1 Wisconsin (35-3) vs. #1 Kentucky (38-0)

For the second straight season its the Badgers and the Wildcats in the Final Four. Last season, Andrew Harrison hit a three late in the game to propel Kentucky to the upset and the Championship game. The circumstances are quite different this year, as Kentucky enters 38-0 and favorites to finish the season 40-0. The Badgers have lost just three games this season and guys like Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker remember last season's excruciating loss. Kaminsky specifically returned for his senior season because he wanted to avenge that loss.

The Badgers run this year has felt like a do over of their 2014 Tournament run. This year and last year they beat Oregon in the Round of 32, and this year and last year they defeated Arizona in the Elite Eight. The star for the Badgers last week wasn't Kaminsky, but Dekker. As the entire Badgers team struggled in the Sweet 16 against North Carolina, Dekker played his heart out, keeping Wisconsin in the game and eventually helping the Badgers pull off the win. Then against Arizona, Dekker hit an incredibly tough three pointer late in the game to ice the win for Wisconsin. He had no problems dealing with Carolina's size so I don't expect the monsters that Kentucky has to faze him too much. Kaminsky really struggled against Carolina the first half, but since that first half, he has played Player of the Year type basketball that people are used to seeing from him. Dekker and Kaminsky did the heavy lifting and it was enough to beat Arizona but guys like Bronson Koenig, Nigel Hayes and Josh Gasser will have to do more for the Badgers to pull off the major upset. Traveon Jackson returned after missing 19 games in the Sweet 16 but played less than 10 minutes in both the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, so he can't really be counted on. Wisconsin doesn't have nearly the depth Kentucky has, so fatigue will be something to watch in this game as Kentucky throws their waves of players onto the court.

After obliterating West Virginia in the Sweet 16, Kentucky trailed Notre Dame for most of their Elite 8 encounter, before once again Andrew Harrison hit a clutch three pointer late, and the Wildcats escaped with a two point win. Andrew and his brother Aaron don't score a ton but Andrew especially is a player Kentucky can always count on late in games. The most surprising part of Kentucky's game against Notre Dame was how easily the Irish's big man Zach Auguste dominated the game. August was just one rebound shy of a double double despite battling massive men like Willey Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns and Stein combined for just 9 rebounds in that game, and they need to up the aggressiveness in Indianapolis for Kentucky to reach 40-0. Interestingly, the the game as tight as it was, Kentucky coach John Calipari played only a 7 man rotation. Backup guards Devin Booker Tyler Ullis played a lot of minutes but Marcus Lee and Dakari Johnson hardly played. To me even with the game close, it isn't like Lee and Johnson haven't played in big games before, Calipari needs to get them into the action, because no team has a prayer of staying as fresh as Kentucky does.

The game against Notre Dame further reiterated what I already knew, that despite being unbeaten Kentucky isn't some juggernaut that can't be touched. No one can match their talent, but this is a team of a lot of freshman and sophomores. They will be playing a Wisconsin team with tons of veteran leadership and almost as much talent. Like Notre Dame did, I expect Wisconsin to punch Kentucky in the mouth early and quickly let them know they are in for a dogfight. But unlike Notre Dame, Wisconsin won't panic late and get away from their offense, or have one of their players try to play hero ball. I picked Wisconsin to beat Kentucky in this game three weeks ago and I see no reason to change my mind. The undefeated dream will come to an end for Kentucky and Wisconsin will reach their first National Championship game since 1941.

Prediction: Wisconsin 75, Kentucky 72

2015 March Madness (South and East Regions) - Sweet 16 and Elite 8

South Regional Semi-Final in Houston, TX

#11 UCLA (22-13) vs. #2 Gonzaga (34-2)

After being told they didn't belong in the NCAA Tournament, UCLA knocked off SMU and UAB to reach the Sweet 16. They did it mostly on the back of coach Steve Alford's son, Bryce Alford. Alford has been lethal from three point range in the Tournament, shooting 12 for 16 in two games. They will need an almost equal performance from him tonight if they are to upset the Zags.

You always hear about the importance of guard play in the NCAA Tournament and that explains why UCLA is still playing. In addition to Alford, the Bruins have senior and leading scorer Norman Powell, as well as Isaac Hamilton. Down in the blocks are Kevon Looney and Tony Parker. Parker went ham on UAB scoring 28 points but against SMU he had just 3 points, and I would expect a performance similar to that since Parker will be dealing with Kyle Wiltjer. The Bruins are a balanced offensive team, with five players averaging double figures in scoring. The problem for UCLA is that they don't have much depth and most of their bench has trouble scoring.

The Bulldogs are led by the aforementioned Wiltjer and senior guard Kevin Pangos. Pangos shoots 45% from three point range, so we might see an impromptu three point contest between him and Alford. Gonzaga is an all around team, they lead the country in field goal percentage and rank 50th in points allowed per game. Down in the blocks with Wiltjer is Domantas Sabonis. If the name Sabonis sounds familiar it is because he is the son of former Portland Trail Blazer center Arvydas Sabonis.

Unless Alford hits about ten three pointers, I don't think UCLA can get the necessary stops on defense to upset Gonzaga. The Zags do a great job of getting the ball inside and getting easy looks, and even when forced to shoot from outside, they have a marksman in Pangos. Gonzaga also has much more depth than UCLA and that will be a huge factor as Gonzaga reaches their first Elite 8 under Mark Few.

Prediction: Gonzaga 74, UCLA 66


East Regional Semi-Final in Syracuse, NY

#8 North Carolina State (22-13) vs. #4 Louisville (26-8)

NC State had quite the adventurous first week in the NCAA Tournament. They overcame a 14-point halftime deficit to defeat LSU at the buzzer. Then they pulled off one of the biggest upsets to date in the NCAA Tournament when they knocked out fraudy #1 seed Villanova. Although to be fair, you wouldn't have been surprised by that upset if you had read my post last week. Now they face fellow ACC foe Louisivlle in a rematch from Valentine's Day, when NC State dominated the Cardinals on the road, winning 74-65, and it was a win that served as a turning point for the Wolfpack's season.

Guards Anthony Barber and Trevor Lacey had their way with the Cardinals in that game. Ralston Turner has been another consistent scorer for NC State this season, but he struggled in that game and has struggled thus far in the Tournament. The Wolfpack aren't really known for their defense but they have played solid defense so far in the Tournament and against Louisville in February held them to just 32% shooting. Louisville has had trouble scoring this season and is one of the worst shooting teams in the country. However, they have been successful this season thanks to their defense.

In their wins over California Irvine and Northern Iowa, the Cardinals gave up an average of 54 points. The biggest reason that Louisville lost to NC State earlier this season was their two leading scorers, G Terry Rozier and F Montrezl Harrell didn't show up on the offensive end. Chris Jones and Wayne Blackshear played well, but for Louisville to outscore the Wolfpack they need all of their offensive weapons to show up.

The East region opened up with both Villanova and Virginia going down the first weekend. The Wolfpack know they can beat Louisville and it wasn't just a fluke home win. I think NC State will end up dictating the pace, but the Cardinals scorers will be up to the challenge and enable Louisville to enact revenge for the February defeat.

Prediction: Louisville 75, North Carolina State 73


South Regional Semi-Final in Houston, TX

#5 Utah (26-8) vs. #1 Duke (31-4)

The Blue Devils cruised to the Sweet 16, blowing out Robert Morris and San Diego State. Jahlil Okafor was unstoppable, averaging 23.5 points in the two victories. The competition figures to be steeper tonight against the Utes of Utah. The Utes got past Stephen F. Austin and after a slow start cruised past Georgetown. They have one of the most exciting guards in the country in Delon Wright. Wright uncharacteristically struggled shooting in the Utes wins but still found other ways to contribute. He was all over the court grabbing rebounds, stealing the ball and dishing out assists.

The Utes might have an answer for Okafor in an outstanding freshman of their own, Jakob Poeltl. Poeltl averaged 15 points in the Utes victories and he was able to score 12 points in just 18 minutes of action against the Hoyas. Utah has a deep rotation of players and much more depth than the Blue Devils. Wright and Poeltl are the leaders but the Utes also receive contributions from Jordan Loveridge, Brandon Taylor and backup C Dallin Bachynski, another seven footer. Okafor may never have had to work as hard as he will have to work tonight going against the Utes bigs.

Wright will be matched up against the Blue Devils excellent backcourt of Quin Cook and Tyus Jones. Along with Okafor, Cook and Jones the Blue Devils start Matt Jones and Justise Winslow. Beyond that, not many other Blue Devils will see the floor. Even in the blowout win over the Aztecs, all five Duke starters logged over 30 minutes. The biggest challenge Duke figures to face in this game is the wave of players that Utah can throw at them.

Utah is a very tough matchup for Duke, with their size and depth. Tyus Jones will have his work cut out for him going against Wright. This is a true statement game for Okafor as he goes up against the Utes bigs. I think Okafor is the real deal and it is because of him that I am confident Duke can overcome this challenge and pull out a hard fought win.

Prediction: Duke 70, Utah 66


East Regional Semi-Final in Syracuse, NY

#7 Michigan State (25-11) vs. #3 Oklahoma (24-10)

The Spartans bandwagon is filling up quickly as Tom Izzo once again his team playing deep into March. If you listen to the media you are to never bet against Izzo in March, except you know when he coaches against Roy Williams or doesn't win a national title like he hasn't since 2000. The Spartans held off Georgia and then beat a Virginia team that couldn't hit the broadside of the barn in either field goal attempts or foul shots. The Sooners held off Albany and then won a pseudo road game against Dayton in Columbus, Ohio, overcoming a late deficit.

Oklahoma is better offensively than Virginia but their leading scorer Buddy Hield has been struggling. Hield is shooting just 10 of 29 in two Tournament games, but he was still able to make an impact in the Dayton game because he was able to get to the free throw line. To counteract the Spartans attack Hield is going to have to hit his shot at more consistent rate. If he misses, he at least knows that Ryan Spangler will be there to clean up his messes. Spangler averaged 8 boards a game this season and 23 rebounds in two games last week. TaShawn Thomas is the other Sooners big, and those two will have a distinct advantage going up against the Spartans Branden Dawson. Sooners guard Isaiah Cousins has been quiet thus far in the Tournament and like Heild has been struggling shooting.

Guards Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine shoulder the load for the Spartans. In fact, despite being listed as a guard, Valentine is second on the Spartans, averaging 6.5 rebounds per game this season. The Spartans are right up there with Kentucky as far as depth goes, and their rotation can sometimes go 10 deep. That allows Michigan State to play ultra physical defense, as they don't have to really fear harsh consequences if a player fouls out. F Matt Costello and G Bryn Forbes tend to log heavy minutes coming off the bench.

With so many people picking the Spartans, it makes me feel like going in a different direction. I really liked the resolve Oklahoma showed winning against Dayton in the midst of a partisan crowd. They won't be rocked by the Spartans physical style and I expect them to shoot much better than the Cavaliers did. I know that Hield and Cousins have been struggling but I expect a breakout game from at least one of them in this contest.

Prediction: Oklahoma 69, Michigan State 65

Gonzaga's dreams of finally reaching a Final Four will be dashed by the Blue Devils, as Okafor will outplay Wiltjer. The Sooners will reach the Final Four for the first time since 2002 by defeating Louisville in a close game, putting Sooners coach Lon Kruger back in the Final Four for the first time since 1994.

2015 March Madness (West and Midwest Regions) - Sweet 16 and Elite 8

Midwest Regional Semi-Final in Cleveland, OH

#7 Wichita State (30-4) vs. #3 Notre Dame (31-5)

The Shockers versus the Catholics will be a good old fashioned defense versus offense battle. Wichita State ranked 9th in the nation in points allowed per game, while the Irish ranked 12th in points scored, averaging almost 80 per game. The Shockers slipped past Indiana, and then had one of the most satisfying wins in program history when they crushed Kansas in the Third Round. Guard Ron Baker led the Shockers in scoring during the regular season, but it was fellow guard Fred Van Vleet that carried the load last weekend. Fellow guard Tekele Cotton had an unexpected impact in the game against Kansas, scoring 19 points against the Jayhawks. The Shockers leading rebounder this season was F Darius Carter, who averaged just a little over 5 boards a game.

That lack of size could present problems for the Shockers tonight. Notre Dame ranks low in rebounds but that is partially because they shot the ball so well. G-F Pat Connaughton averaged 7.4 rebounds per game and F Zach Auguste averages almost 7 rebounds per game. The best player on the floor will be Irish guard Jerian Grant. Grant leads Notre Dame in scoring and assists, and has been held to single digit scoring just twice this season. The Irish were a bad team this year, mostly due to Grant's absence and their quick turnaround is evidence of how important he is to the team. The Irish got a huge lift from G Steve Vasturia in their overtime win over Butler, after he was non-existent in their close win over Northeastern. The Shockers will need to keep a close eye on G Demetrius Jackson, who shoots over 40% from three point range.

Ultimately, I expect Wichita State's defense to keep this game low scoring, but the Irish have been battle tested all season long and will be ready to win an ugly game. The Shockers will have a bit of a letdown after the Kansas game, and while I think they will be ready to play, I think energy wise they will be down from the fire we saw last Sunday. Grant will be prove to be the difference maker, making some key shots late to key the Irish win.

Prediction: Notre Dame 62, Wichita State 58


West Regional Semi-Final in Los Angeles, CA

#4 North Carolina (26-11) vs. #1 Wisconsin (33-3)

Wisconsin breezed past Coastal Carolina and then made a late charge to push past Oregon to reach the Sweet 16. National Player of the Year front-runner F Frank "The Tank" Kaminsky dominated Coastal, and while not as dominant against the Ducks, was a key force in the Badgers victory. It will be fun watching Kaminsky go up against the size that North Carolina will throw at him. Unfortunately for the Heels they might be missing one key player, as Kennedy Meeks is battling an ankle injury he suffered in the Third Round win over Arkansas last Saturday. Meeks presence is vital to Carolina's hopes of springing the upset, even if he just serves the role of another body that can get physical and afford to foul Kaminsky.

Kaminsky receives all the attention but F Sam Dekker is another key cog in the Badgers machine. The Heels will need to try to force Dekker outside of the lane, as he shoots just 30% from three point land. When he is able to penetrate he is deadly, hitting over 50% of his shots. Sophomore F Nigel Hayes has really come on in recent weeks for Wisconsin, providing more scoring on the offensive end, and remaining a presence for opponents to deal with on the block. Another dangerous offensive player for Wisconsin is G Bronson Koenig, who shoots over 40% from three point range. Koenig has really stepped up his game since having to replace the injured Traevon Jackson. There is a slight chance that Jackson plays in this game, but even if he does, he will be so rusty that I wouldn't expect him to make much of a difference. This isn't old school Wisconsin, they have plenty of offensive talent and don't get by just on defense.

The Heels nearly blew a 16 point lead against Harvard before holding on to a victory and then beat Arkansas in a track meet in the Third Round. Marcus Paige was the difference in that game in the second half for Carolina, while freshman Justin Jackson continues to shoot better and better as the year has rolled on. Jackson is a much less refined version of Kaminsky, a taller player that can play like a guard and has the shot to back it up. Whether Meeks plays or not, Joel James should see heavy minutes off the bench, as I expect Roy Williams to try all sorts of defenders and tactics on Kaminsky. That means extra pressure on guards Paige, Nate Britt and Joel Berry to try to slow down Dekker and Koenig. Forwards Brice Johnson and J.P. Tokoto will be relied on heavily to guard Kaminsky.

Carolina is better offensively than Wisconsin, but the Badgers have the major edge defensively. If I am Carolina I let Kaminsky get his and focus on controlling Dekker, Hayes and Koenig as much as possible. Unfortunately, I don't think the Heels have the defensive chops necessary to pull off the upset. They also are way too turnover prone, which comes with their fast break style. Against lesser teams Carolina can overcome those turnovers but the Badgers are too good.

Prediction: Wisconsin 68, North Carolina 62


Midwest Regional Semi-Final in Cleveland, OH

#5 West Virginia (25-9) vs. #1 Kentucky (36-0)

The Mountaineers took out Bobby Hurley and the Buffalo Bulls, and then dispatched the Maryland Terrapins with their press to reach the Sweet 16. For Kentucky, they continued steamrolling through the competition, blowing out Hampton, then letting Cincinnati hang around for a bit, before demolishing them. The Mountaineers will need a perfect game to pull off the upset tonight. The Mountaineers like to push the ball and against the Wildcats defense that has proven ineffective this season.

West Virginia's leading scorer this season is G Juwan Staten. Staten couldn't buy a bucket against the Terps and was picked up by the rest of the Mountaineer starters. F Devin Williams has really come on strong recently for West Virginia but he will face a whole new set of challenges playing against guys like Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns. The Mountaineers are a horrific three point shooting team, so they will be forced to have to overpower Kentucky inside to try to score.

Kentucky has amazing depth and it has often been said that their backups could be their own Top 25 team. Ten Wildcats players averaged double digits in minutes per game. The Harrison twins, Andrew and Aaron, along with freshman guard Devin Booker are the facilitators on offense. Booker has been struggling as of late though, but when you have nine other guys that can pick up the slack, no one really notices.

Mountaineers guard Daxter Miles Jr. may be predicting a win but I doubt anyone else is. I think West Virginia can keep the game interesting for a bit with their defensive pressure, but Kentucky will do what they always do, eventually impose their will and run away with the game. The final score will make the game appear closer than it actually was.

Prediction: Kentucky 70, West Virginia 60


West Regional Semi-Final in Los Angeles, CA

#6 Xavier (23-13) vs. #2 Arizona (33-3)

The Musketeers crushed Mississippi, and then held off Cinderella Georgia State to punch their ticket to the Sweet 16 as the Big East's lone representative. Arizona remains dominant and along with Wisconsin and Duke, appear to be the best bets to potentially knock off Kentucky.

Arizona's demolition of Ohio State in the Third Round was even more impressive considering freshman sensation Stanley Johnson played miserably. He scored just 4 points on 1 of 12 shooting. I expect Johnson to play much better tonight, especially if dork nerd Matt Stainbrook guards him at times. Stainbrook would have the height advantage but Johnson would easily have the athleticism advantage. The Wildcats other big is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson as Sean Miller's team has just the right mix of size and athleticism. The Wildcats second leading score Brandon Ashley was also quiet against Ohio State, and the struggles of Johnson and Ashley gave G T.J. McConnell a chance to shine.

Dee Davis will be charged with trying to slow down McConnell for Xavier. Forward Trevon Bluiett was non existent in the first two rounds for Xavier but for them to have any chance in this game, he will have to have one of his better games of the season, something I don't see happening. G Miles Davis and F Jalen Reynolds round out the Musketeers starting five, solid players in their own right, but nowhere near the level of players Xavier has.

This matchup appears to be the most lopsided of the eight Sweet 16 games. The level of competition for Xavier from what they faced in the first two rounds, to what they will face tonight will be overwhelming. I expect Johnson and Ashley to bounce back after tough games and for the Wildcats to cruise to victory.

Prediction: Arizona 82, Xavier 66

Kentucky will continue their undefeated run on Saturday when they outlast Notre Dame in a high scoring game. Wisconsin and Arizona meet in a rematch of last year's Elite 8, and once again Wisconsin will squeak by the Wildcats to make their second straight Final Four, and set up a Final Four rematch with the Cats. 

2015 March Madness - East Region (First Weekend)

Best Game: #8 NC State vs. #9 LSU

Mark Gottfried's Wolfpack teams have had some tournament success in his tenure. With the draw they received in the East region I think they are primed for another Sweet 16 run, which they reached as an 11 seed under Gottfried in 2012. Alabama transfer Trevor Lacey has immediately become a team leader in his first season with Pack, leading the team in scoring. NC State doesn't play excellent defense, ranking towards the bottom of the NCAA in steals and middle of the pack, no pun intended, in scoring defense. However, they are peaking at the right time, having won six of their past eight games. The Tigers are also a strong offensive team, and weaker defensively, but they do rank highly in rebounds, blocks and steals. Offensively, they are paced on the boards and scoring by forwards Jordan Mickey and Jarell Martin. Texas Tech transfer guard, Josh Gray is more of a passer than a scorer, and their other guard Tim Quarterman has seen his minutes triple this season from last year and has responded well. Both teams have had their coaches criticized for not maximizing the talent they have, but Gottfried gets a bad rap in my opinion as he has returned the Wolfpack to the success level they had lost under Sidney Lowe. These teams are evenly matched and this is a game that should be competitive throughout and not be decided until the very end.


Player to Watch: Oklahoma guard Buddy Hield

This isn't a region filled with big name stars so I had some trouble when deciding what player was worth watching. That led me to who would be the most exciting and that player is the Big 12's leading scorer, the Sooners Buddy Hield. Hield's shooting accuracy can leave a bit to be desired but he is similar to a Marshall Henderson in that no matter how well he is going, he isn't afraid to shoot and take the pressure off of his teammates. Hield is also a very good free throw shooter, so he is at his best when he is driving to the hoop and forcing contact. If the Sooners make it to the second week of the tournament it will be on the back of Hield.


Best Potential Game: #7 Michigan State vs. #2 Virginia

This game would be a rematch of last year's Sweet Sixteen game that the Spartans won.Virginia enters the Tournament trying to figure out how they can get Justin Anderson worked back into the rotation. Anderson was awful in the ACC Tournament, shooting 0 for 6 in two games. That means more pressure on Malcolm Brogdon to try to produce for UVA. Of course, Virginia has their most success when opposing teams wilt under their suffocating defense. North Carolina was able to shoot lights out on their defense in the ACC Tournament and Michigan State is another team that shoots the ball well and can be hard to stop from scoring. Virginia would certainly have the added motivation of looking for revenge from last season but for a 2 seed, this is quite the challenging matchup they could have so early in the Tournament.


Lowest Seed to Make It Through the Weekend: #8 NC State

I like the Wolfpack to take down the Tigers and then I think they have what it takes to beat the weakest #1 seed in my opinion, Villanova. The committee thinks Villanova is the second best team in the country, but they showed signs of overvaluing the Big East throughout their seeding of those teams. Now, to be honest, I couldn't name a single Villanova player and have barely seen them play since the Big East is relegated to Fox Sports 1, but there is precedence to my doubting the Cats. They were a 2 seed last season after steamrolling through the sorry Big East and then were manhandled by the eventual champion UCONN Huskies in the Third Round. Things change from year to year, but I am in a show me mood when it comes to the Wildcats this year.


Predictions

First Round

#11 Dayton over #11 Boise State


Second Round

#1 Villanova over #16 Lafayette

#8 NC State over #9 LSU

#12 Wyoming over #5 Northern Iowa

#4 Louisville over #13 UC-Irvine

#11 Dayton over #6 Providence

#3 Oklahoma over #14 Albany

#7 Michigan State over #10 Georgia

#2 Virginia over #15 Belmont


Third Round

#8 NC State over #1 Villanova

#4 Louisville over #12 Wyoming

#3 Oklahoma over #11 Dayton

#2 Virginia over #7 Michigan State

2015 March Madness - South Region (First Weekend)

Best Game: #6 SMU vs. #11 UCLA

Mustangs coach, Larry Brown faces his former team, the Bruins. UCLA's inclusion in the Tournament was probably the most debated part of Selection Sunday. The Bruins played well the latter part of the season but early on in the year they lost five games in a row and suffered blowout losses to Kentucky, Utah, and Oregon. They are playing better as of late, having won four of their final five games. People always talk up the importance of guard play in the NCAA Tournament and the Bruins excel in that area. Coach's son Bryce Alford teams up with Normal Powell in the Bruins backcourt. The Bruins then have a bruising presence on the glass in Kevon Looney. The Bruins are also balanced offensively, with five players averaging double figures in scoring. Brown has the Mustangs back in the NCAA Tournament after a 22 year absence. The Mustangs feed off their big bodies inside, C Yanick Moreira and F Markus Kennedy. Nic Moore is a solid point guard, but you have two teams with slightly different philosophies offensively. I think the Bruins are playing improved basketball and won't be the pushover most expect. However, I think the difference in this game will be coaching, and I will take Larry Brown over Steve Alford any day.


Player to Watch: Duke center Jahlil Okafor

Okafor appears to be the consensus #1 pick in this June's NBA Draft assuming he leaves early as most expect. Okafor was just a rebound shy of averaging a double double per game and he also averages 1.5 blocks per game. Where Okafor struggles is at the foul line, shooting just 51%. If Duke is in tight games, expect to see a lot of Hackafor strategy being employed by teams late in games. Okafor would do himself a favor if he just remains close to the basket, because if teams do try to foul him he earns a ton of and one opportunities.


Best Potential Game: #6 SMU vs. #3 Iowa State

This would be a great game of highly differing philosophies. SMU is all about size and defense, while Iowa State plays defense when they have to but mostly just looks to outscore teams. The Cyclones do have 6'8 forward Georges Niang and 6'9 forward Jameel McKay to contain SMU's bigs. The Cyclones recent trend has been to get down big early and then produce furious comebacks in the second half. Against a team as accomplished defensively as the Mustangs, that may not work though.

Lowest Seed to Make It Through the Weekend: #12 Stephen F. Austin

The Lumberjacks broke the hearts of VCU last year when they miraculously came back from down 4 with seconds to go. They look to continue that string of success when they face sliding Utah in the Second Round. I foresee a battle of Cinderellas in Round Three, as I expect Georgetown to have their annual Tournament loss to a double digit seed, which would give us a Lumberjacks/Eastern Washington matchup. The Lumberjacks return most of last year's tournament tested team, including F Jacob Parker and G Thomas Walkup. That experience will serve them well this year.


Predictions

First Round

#16 Robert Morris over #16 North Florida


Second Round

#1 Duke over #16 Robert Morris

#8 San Diego State over #9 St. John's

#12 Stephen F. Austin over #5 Utah

#13 Eastern Washington over #4 Georgetown

#6 SMU over #11 UCLA

#3 Iowa State over #14 UAB

#10 Davidson over #7 Iowa

#2 Gonzaga over #15 North Dakota State


Third Round

#1 Duke over #8 San Diego State

#12 Stephen F. Austin over #13 Eastern Washington

#3 Iowa State over #6 SMU

#2 Gonzaga over #10 Davidson

2015 March Madness - West Region (First Weekend)

Best Game: #7 VCU vs. #10 Ohio State

This matchup will come down to how well the Rams Havoc can contain the Buckeyes do everything guard D'Angelo Russell. Russell lead Ohio State in scoring, rebounding and was second on the team in assists. It's a shame that Briante Weber is lost for the season for VCU because watching him guard Russell would have been a lot of fun. When you look at statistics the Buckeyes outrank VCU in most major categories and it isn't even close. Ohio State shot close to 50% this year while VCU shot 42%. Treveon Graham is the Rams go to player offensively and also leads the Rams in rebounding. The Rams have the momentum of winning the A-10 Tournament on their side, but I am skeptical about their ability to handle Russell, even with their Havoc defense. 


Player to Watch: Wisconsin forward Frank Kaminsky

Kaminsky plays like a guard trapped in a large man's body. He averaged 8 rebounds per game and shot a spectacular 55% from the field. That high field goal percentage isn't just the 7-footer hanging out in the lane and taking easy shots. He also shot almost 40% from three point range this year. He is the favorite to win the Wooden award as the best player in the country, and is the reason why I believe that Wisconsin is one of the few teams with a real chance to take down Kentucky in this tournament.


Best Potential Game: #4 North Carolina vs. #5 Arkansas

If you like track meet type games, then you should be hoping that both of these teams win in the Second Round and set up this game in the final 32. Both teams averaged almost 80 points per game this season, and because of their frenetic pace, each team gives up about 70 points per game. Where Carolina would have a massive advantage is their size and rebounding ability. Carolina is also battle tested, having played 20 of their 35 games against Tournament teams this year, while Arkansas played just 10 games against Tournament teams this year, compounded by the fact that they play in the significantly weaker SEC. F Bobby Portis and G Michael Qualls are the Razorbacks two best players, while Carolina features a more balanced offensive attack. Qualls and Portis are the only Razorbacks that average double figures in scoring, while Carolina has four players in double figures, G Marcus Paige, F Brice Johnson, F Kennedy Meeks, and G-F Justin Jackson. J.P. Tokoto is another threat to score the ball for Carolina. There are a lot of complaints about the level of play in college basketball right now, but if these two teams match up, it will showcase college basketball at its finest.


Lowest Seed to Make It Through the Weekend: #14 Georgia State

If my prediction comes true then Georgia State coach Ron Hunter might tear both his Achilles. Hunter injured his Achilles celebrating the Panthers win last Sunday, earning them an NCAA Tournament berth. The Panthers have excellent guard play behind Ryan Harrow and Hunter's son, R.J. Hunter. The Panthers will need those two to hit outside shots to mitigate the size advantage Baylor will have over them. If the Panthers beat Baylor, they could then possibly face Xavier in Round Three, a team that wouldn't present the size troubles that Baylor will.

Predictions

First Round

#11 BYU over #11 Mississippi 


Second Round

#1 Wisconsin over #16 Coastal Carolina

#8 Oregon over #9 Oklahoma State

#5 Arkansas over #12 Wofford

#4 North Carolina over #13 Harvard

#6 Xavier over #11 BYU

#14 Georgia State over #3 Baylor

#10 Ohio State over #7 VCU

#2 Arizona over #15 Texas Southern


Third Round

#1 Wisconsin over #8 Oregon

#4 North Carolina over #5 Arkansas

#14 Georgia State over #6 Xavier

#2 Arizona over #10 Ohio State

2015 March Madness - Midwest Region (First Weekend)

Best Game: #5 West Virginia vs. #12 Buffalo

Buffalo, led by former Duke guard Bobby Hurley, is making their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance. They come into the NCAA's on a roll, having won eight games in a row. The Bulls inside out combo of guard Shannon Evans and forward Justin Moss lead the team in scoring. The Bulls are one of the highest scoring teams in the NCAAs, averaging 75 points a contest. West Virginia is led by guard Juwan Staten. Staten saw his scoring dip this season but that was because he received more help from his teammates than last season in what was a lost year for the Mountaineers. Normally you would think that a power conference team would have the size and rebounding advantage over a mid major. However, that is not the case in this game as the Bulls were one of the better rebounding teams in the country. They hung tough with Kentucky and Wisconsin earlier this season and so while seed wise West Virginia is the favorite, they will have their work cut out for them.


Player to Watch: Notre Dame guard Jerian Grant

The Midwest region is loaded with talented players but to me the most exciting player is Notre Dame guard Jerian Grant. As he does, so goes Notre Dame. In recent years the Irish have struggled in the NCAA Tournament, but they haven't had a player as dynamic as Grant leading them. After winning the ACC Tournament, the Irish have made themselves a dark horse Final Four team and one that could potentially give Kentucky some trouble if they were to face each other.


Best Potential Game: #11 Texas vs. #3 Notre Dame

Some might prefer the battle of Indiana between Butler and Notre Dame, but I think Texas and the Irish would be more fun to watch. As is often the characteristic of Rick Barnes led teams, the Longhorns have been inconsistent this season, but they don't lack talent. Isaiah Taylor versus Grant would be an intriguing guard battle, and the Irish would have to find a way to contend with the size of freshman Myles Turner. Where Texas would have problems is trying to keep up with the torrid pace that the Irish have offensively, as they were the second best shooting team in the country.


Lowest Seed to Make It Through the Weekend: #4 Maryland

I expect a couple of upsets in the Second Round but then for things to sort themselves out in Round Three. Some people seem to like Wichita State over Kansas, but I think people are thinking of last year's Shockers team and not this year's version which isn't as talented. The Terps are back in the NCAA Tournament after a lengthy absence but rather than be happy, all their fans did was whine about their seeding. Perhaps Maryland would have had a better seed if they hadn't blown a sixteen point lead against Michigan State, or not been blown out on the road by mediocre teams. Either way, Terps fans should be happy at the end of the week when Maryland makes it to the Sweet Sixteen.


Predictions:   

First Round

#16 Manhattan over #16 Hampton


Second Round

#1 Kentucky over #16 Manhattan

#9 Purdue over #8 Cincinnati

#12 Buffalo over #5 West Virginia

#4 Maryland over #13 Valparaiso

#11 Texas over #6 Butler

#3 Notre Dame over #14 Northeastern

#7 Wichita State over #10 Indiana

#2 Kansas over #15 New Mexico State


Third Round

#1 Kentucky over #9 Purdue

#4 Maryland over #12 Buffalo

#3 Notre Dame over #11 Texas

#2 Kansas over #7 Wichita State

NCAA Basketball Championship Game - Arlington, Texas

#

#8 Kentucky (29-10) vs. #7 Connecticut (31-8)

I'd like to meet the person that picked this as the Championship game three weeks ago and shake their hand. Problem is, I am not sure that person would exist. As 7 and 8 seeds, this is the highest ever combined seeding in a Championship game. Kentucky wasn't even ranked in the AP poll when the Tournament began, while Connecticut was only as high as 18 in the AP top 25.

After a slow start and it looking like they were going to be blown out by the Gators, UCONN quickly struck back and then dominated Florida. DeAndre Daniels had a monster game and UCONN's guards dominated Florida's guards, not allowing Scott Wilbekin to get anything going offensively.

Kentucky once again took part in an instant classic, and once again won on a three point shot by Aaron Harrison, this time against Wisconsin. Another familiar formula Kentucky followed was getting behind early but then finding a way to claw back into the game.

The key for the Huskies to be able to knock off Kentucky will be once again having other plays step up on offense to complement Shabazz Napier. Daniels was that guy on Saturday, as was Niels Giffey. Fellow guard Ryan Boatright was his usual excellent self defensively but also added some scoring punch. The Huskies defense will also be tested by a Wildcats team with a lot of size and a lot of players with the ability to score. The Huskies bench contributed just 6 points in the win on Saturday, so the pressure will be on their starters to perform well throughout the game.

Julius Randle had just 5 rebounds on Saturday night but put up 16 points and could be in line for a dominant performance tonight. James Young has not received the accolades and attention that Randle and the Harrison twins have, but he has been outstanding in the NCAA Tournament. It seems like each game he is good for a couple of clutch three pointers and he led the Wildcats in scoring on Saturday. Andrew and his brother Aaron have both struggled with their shot the last couple of games, but Aaron has been easily forgiven because of the timing of when he has been able to hit shots. They will have a tremendous size advantage on Napier and Boatright tonight, and should look to drive the lane and make their lives a little easier. They are both excellent when they drive and then dish it to the big men they have like Randle, Alex Poythress and Marcus Lee.

I think it is impossible to pick against the Cardiac Cats right now. Game after game, these freshman have played amazing basketball under pressure and in tense moments. The stage won't be too big for them. Connecticut's defense will keep the Huskies in the game but the Wildcats have so many options for scoring that I don't think UCONN will be able to slow them down enough. The size advantage the Harrisons have over Napier and Boatright will become a huge factor on both sides of the ball. I don't expect Aaron to have to hit a game winning shot this time. I think Kentucky will allow its fans a chance to breathe tonight and enjoy a win. Calipari will bring Kentucky what it believes is its college basketball right, a national championship and their second in three seasons.

Prediction: Kentucky 67, Connecticut 59

2014 Final Four - Arlington, Texas

#7 Connecticut (30-8) vs. #1 Florida (36-2)  

Huskies coach Kevin Ollie has Connecticut back in the Final Four. I was curious to see how the Huskies program would fate when longtime coach and resuscitator of the program Jim Calhoun retired. After being banned from postseason play last year, Ollie has quickly proven that the Connecticut program should continue its success. The Huskies pulled off back to back upsets in Madison Square Garden last weekend, knocking off #3 seed Iowa State and #4 seed Michigan State. Their run is drawing parallels to their last championship and Final Four run in 2011. That year, it was Kemba Walker who put the Huskies on his back, and this year it has been Shabazz Napier.

Napier does so much for Connecticut on both the offensive and defensive ends. He will occasionally get some support from DeAndre Daniels, but often times, the Huskies are completely reliant on him offensively. In addition to scoring Napier is able to often fly past opponents big men and come down with rebounds. Napier is a pretty good defensive player, but the Huskies defensive leader is Ryan Boatwright. Boatwright was a menace to the Michigan State players, recording four steals. G-F Niels Giffey is a guy you don't often hear his name called but sometimes that can be a good thing because it also means he isn't doing much wrong while on the court. Center Phillip Nolan basically leaves the Huskies at a 4 on 5 disadvantage offensively and usually splits time with fellow big man Amida Brimah. UCONN doesn't have a ton of depth though and that could be their undoing this weekend.

The Florida Gators are on an absolute tear. They have won 30 games in a row and coincidentally enough their last loss this season came at Connecticut on December 2. When you look back at the stats from that game, it seems like it was mostly a fluky loss. Florida shot almost 50% and outrebounded the Huskies. They were going to win the game before Shabazz Napier hit a shot as time expired. Some would argue that Florida has had an easy road to the Final Four, but they did defeat UCLA in the Sweet 16 and the bruins were one of the hottest teams in the country. They might have caught a break by drawing #11 seed Dayton in the Elite 8 but Dayton had beaten some strong teams along the way including Ohio State and Syracuse.

Guard Scottie Wilbekin is on an absolute tear right now, and him and Napier could wind up in a scoring battle on Saturday. Patric Young is the Gators force in the middle and unlike UCONN's bigs he can be relied upon offensively. F Casey Prather was the Gators leading scorer in the teams first meeting, but in the Gators last three games he hasn't really looked for his shot much. Michael Frazier II is another dangerous guard for the Gators and someone who doesn't turn the ball over. F Will Yeguete, along with Young helps give the Gators their defensive dominance and off the bench Dorian Finney-Smith is a guy that can step up offensively with needed and is another tough defender.

This game really comes down to how well Napier plays and if Daniels or some other player on the Huskies can adequately complement him. In my opinion, Billy Donovan should focus his team's defensive attention entirely on Napier and let anyone else on Connecticut try to beat them. Florida is too good of a team to lose to Connecticut twice and I expect the Gators to never really pull away from UCONN but also never truly be in danger, as they return to the championship game for the first time since 2007.

Prediction: Florida 64, Connecticut 57


#8 Kentucky (28-10) vs. #2 Wisconsin (30-7) 

It seems the fabulous freshman of Kentucky just needed the pressure removed for them to live up to the hype bestowed upon them prior to the season. The Wildcats have been tremendous in this tournament and their last three wins have all been instant classic victories. Last weekend they came back from early deficits against both Louisville and Michigan, hitting big shots at the end of those games to win. It was Aaron Harrison's three pointer late that sealed the game for Kentucky and put them in their third Final Four in four years.

Aaron and his twin brother Andrew have really upped their play in the tournament run. Andrew did struggle against Michigan but like a good twin, Aaron was there to pick him up. F Julius Randle is an absolute beast and is going to be tremendous on the next level. He averaged a double double this season and that has carried over to the tournament, where he has recorded double doubles in all four games. Dakari Johnson is another big man for the Wildcats and he was a big reason for their win over Louisville. James Young has been scoring under his average but part of that is because of the other Wildcats stepping up their game. Young has hit some huge three pointers during Kentucky's run to the Final Four. Willie Cauley-Stein injured himself against Louisville and is doubtful for the Final Four. Someone who came up huge for Kentucky in his absence against Michigan was Marcus Lee. Any boost Lee can provide for Kentucky off the bench will be huge in their efforts of trying to beat Wisconsin.

The Badgers are back in the Final Four for the first time since 2000 and for the first time under coach Bo Ryan. They destroyed Baylor in the Sweet 16 and then outlasted the top seeded Arizona Wildcats. Frank Kaminsky basically single handedly led the Badgers to victory, scoring 28 of the Badgers 64 points. Kaminsky's big game was even more important because Traevon Jackson struggled mightily shooting from the field against Arizona, hitting just 4 of 14 shots. His fellow guard Ben Brust also had a rough game but is typically one of the most consistent players the Badgers have on the offensive end. Ever since helping lead the Badgers back against Oregon, Josh Gasser has mostly been a non-factor offensively, but is solid on the glass. Freshman Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes are the main options off the bench for Wisconsin.

With the run Kentucky is currently on and the absurd amount of talent they have, it is impossible for me to pick against them right now. The Badgers best hope is that their defense can frustrate the Wildcats young players, and guys like Jackson and Kaminsky have big games. Kaminsky will have to be hitting his shots from the outside, because athletically, he can't play against a guy like Randle. I don't feel like the Badgers have the firepower to take down Kentucky, and coach John Calipari will have the Wildcats in their second championship game in three seasons.

Prediction: Kentucky 72, Wisconsin 65

2014 March Madness (Midwest and East Regions) - Sweet 16 and Elite 8

Midwest Regional Semi-Final in Indianapolis, IN

#11 Tennessee (24-12) vs. #2 Michigan (27-8)

The Volunteers come into the Sweet 16 on a roll. They blew out both Massachusetts and Duke killers Mercer and have won 8 of their last 9 games. Guard Josh Richardson and F Jarnell Stokes were the stories of those Vols win. Both guys were lighting up the basket and Stokes was an absolute monster on the glass, averaging 16 rebounds in the two games. Stokes is a double double machine and will be the toughest player for Michigan to match up against. F Jeronne Maymom is another big presence inside for the Vols and another guy who has to be contended with on the glass. Tennessee ranked 20th in the country, averaging 38 rebounds per game.

The Vols size will present a major problem for Michigan who is on the opposite spectrum when it comes to rebounding. Michigan finished 303rd in the country in rebounds per game, with a measly 31. Part of that stat is skewed though because the Wolverines are such a fantastic shooting team, hitting 48% of their shots. The Wolverines have actually gotten better as a team this year since Mitch McGary went down with an injury, but this matchup is one where they could really miss him. Guard Nik Stauskas is Michigan's most important player, as he can effect the game in so many ways. If his shot is off, then he is still able to find ways to involve his teammates and facilitate points. He is joined in the backcourt by Caris LeVert, a little bit of everything player. Sophomore F Glenn Robinson III is another key player for Michigan and he was outstanding in the wins against Wofford and Texas.

The seeds of these teams would suggest that this game should be a cakewalk for Michigan, but I expect it to be a tightly contested game. Stauskas and the rest of his teammates will have to make the open looks they get, because the Vols make don't allow many second chance opportunities. I expect Stauskas and Robinson to make key plays late, that carry Michigan to their second straight Elite 8 appearance.

Prediction: Michigan 74, Tennessee 73


East Regional Semi-Final in New York, NY

#7 Connecticut (28-8) vs. #3 Iowa State (27-8)  

The atmosphere for this game should be electric. You have the NCAA Tournament back in Madison Square Garden for the first time in forever. You also have two of the premiere players in college basketball facing off, with Connecticut's Shabazz Napier and Iowa State's DeAndre Kane. Both the Huskies and Cyclone are lucky to be in the Sweet 16 as each were on the precipice of being eliminated last weekend. The Huskies were taken to overtime by St. Joseph's in Round Two, and Iowa State was down by 8 points late to North Carolina in Round Three.

Napier is Mr. Everything for Connecticut. He leads the team in points, assists and rebounds. He does all this with amazing efficiency, limiting his mistakes. He receives a bit of help from F DeAndre Daniels. Daniels has the ability to get double doubles for the Huskies and he is a major player for Connecticut in the sense that he helps take some of the pressure off Napier. G Ryan Boatright gets lost in the shuffle with Napier but he is a competent player, and one that when watching the Huskies play you notice his name being called often.

The Cyclones suffered a huge blow when they lost Georges Niang to a broken foot in their win over North Carolina Central. But even without him, their offense kept humming, putting up 85 points against the Tar Heels. Kane was exceptional against North Carolina, as the Tar Heels had no one that could slow him down and he eventually made the winning basket with a second to go. Forward Melvin Ejim is the Cyclones other top scorer and he played well in last week's wins. Forward Dustin Hogue has really stepped up his game in recent weeks and could fill the scoring hole left by Niang's injury.

Napier will do all he can to continue Connecticut's run but I feel like the Cyclones are a more well-rounded team, while the Huskies are far too reliant on Napier. I expect that difference to show itself late in the game and allow the Cyclones to pull away for a victory.

Prediction: Iowa State 85, Connecticut 77


Midwest Regional Semi-Final in Indianapolis, IN

#8 Kentucky (26-10) vs. #4 Louisville (31-5)

One of the better rivalries in college basketball takes center stage in the Sweet 16 this season. These teams meet on an annual basis so this will be the second time they have seen each other. Kentucky won the first meeting in December at Rupp Arena, despite missing beast forward Julius Randle for half of the game. Louisville struggled shooting the ball and after a hot start couldn't sustain anything on offense. The Wildcats finally appear to be living up to the preseason hype bestowed upon them, handing Wichita State their first loss of the season in the Third Round. As part of their resurgence, the Harrison twins, Aaron and Andrew, are playing their best basketball of the season. With a healthy Randle down low, the Wildcats are finally playing the inside-out game they imagined before the season.

Louisville is led by Russ Smith and Mr. Clutch, Luke Hancock. Manhattan had Louisville on the ropes in round two, and then much like he did in last year's championship run, Hancock began hitting threes all over the court. Smith has been trying to do a little bit too much in the tournament so far, and for Louisville to beat Kentucky Smith has to avoid his penchant for playing hero ball. F Montrezl Harrell was a non-factor in the first meeting between these teams, as was Hancock. Smith jacked up 20 shots in that game and that contributed to Louisville not having any sort of rhythm on offense.

A lot of future pros will be on display in this game, and I have a feeling Kentucky will bring the best out of Louisville. Louisville was being talked up before the Tournament but neither victory they had last weekend was overly impressive. A strong performance against Kentucky, with guys like Hancock and Smith firing on all cylinders will restore the faith many had when they picked Louisville to repeat as champions.

Prediction: Louisville 74, Kentucky 65


East Regional Semi-Final in New York, NY

#4 Michigan State (28-8) vs. #1 Virginia (30-6)

When brackets were released a few weeks ago, people very quickly decided to take Michigan State to come out of the East region. Virginia isn't a typical power program so they get very little respect, despite boasting one of the best defenses in all of college basketball. In their past 17 games the Cavaliers have only allowed 60 or more points four times and one of those games went to overtime. I typically go through a team's best offensive players but with Virginia that is virtually pointless. They are a team that is built around its defense and has no liabilities on the defensive end either. When the Cavaliers do need to score it is usually their guards Malcolm Brogdon and Joe Harris leading the way. F Akil Mitchell has seen his minutes decrease this year but still led Virginia in rebounding. G London Perrantes, a freshman from Los Angeles, CA is already playing big minutes and shows maturity beyond his years with his decision making.

F Adreian Payne was the story for the Spartans last week. He dropped 41 points on Delaware, getting to the line 17 times and hitting all of his free throws. It will be interesting to see how Payne fares when going against the stout Cavaliers defense. Virginia is very good at playing tough defense but not fouling too much. When Payne came back to Earth against Harvard, it was F Branden Dawson who picked up the slack. It took Dawson about three games to round into form after being out with an injury but since then he has scored in double digits in 5 straight games. Sparty will need better play from senior guard Keith Appling if they hope to beat UVA on Friday night. Appling was mostly non-existent in last weekend's games. Even more important than Appling is sophomore guard Gary Harris. Coach Tom Izzo relies on Harris a lot, and only gave him 2 minutes rest in the win over Harvard.

I am a firm believer in Virginia and think that no matter how healthy, or hot Michigan State is right now, they don't have the necessary firepower to get past Virginia. It will take an exceptional offensive team to have their way with UVA and the Spartans are not that team. Their offense has been shut down at various times this year, by teams not nearly as good defensively as Virginia. They will have to hit shots from outside, because driving to the lane against the Cavaliers is usually a waste of time. This game may set offensive basketball back a few decades but it won't lack in drama.

Prediction: Virginia 58, Michigan State 56


In a rematch of last year's national championship game, Michigan won't be able to get revenge, as Louisville will advance to their third straight Final Four. Despite losing Dieng earlier in the tournament, Iowa State's potent offense will be too much for the Cavs potent defense, and Fred Hoiberg will have the Cyclones in the Final Four for the first time in 70 years.

2014 March Madness (South and West Regions) - Sweet 16 and Elilte 8

South Regional Semi-Final in Memphis, TN

#11 Dayton (25-10) vs. #10 Stanford (23-12)

I don't think anyone predicted this matchup when brackets came out a week and a half ago. The Flyers defeated Ohio State and Syracuse with their defense. The Buckeyes and Orange each made Dayton play to their style but the Flyers were able to persevere and come out on top. The Flyers don't have any premiere offensive threats but what they do have is a well-rounded team. Their best player is F Dyshawn Pierre, who leads the Flyers in rebounding and scoring, but their most well rounded player is F Devin Oliver. Oliver can score, rebound, and find the open man. Guard Jordan Sibert was flawless against the Buckeyes committing zero turnovers. He did have four against Syracuse but that is commendable when having to face the Cuse zone.

The Flyers will be hard pressed to stop Cardinal guard Chasson Randle. Randle was careless with the ball in the win over Kansas but made up for it on the defensive end with 6 steals. Senior F Josh Huestis doesn't provide much of a threat offensively, but defensively he makes life hell for opponents that try driving it the lane. After a dreadful 0-8 performance against New Mexico, F Dwight Powell was a beast against the Jayhawks, scoring 15 points and grabbing 7 rebounds. Center Stefan Nastic and G-F Anthony Brown are two other big bodies the Cardinals can throw at you.

These teams match up pretty evenly in most statistical categories and I expect this to be one of the more physical games of the eight Sweet 16 matchups. The key to this game will be how the Flyers defense handles Randle. If Randle is able to go off that will give the Cardinal a huge advantage at the guard position. However, I expect the Flyers defense to remain stout, and them to move on to the Elite Eight with another ugly victory.

Prediction: Dayton 62, Stanford 56


West Regional Semi-Final in Anaheim, CA

#6 Baylor (26-11) vs. #2 Wisconsin (28-7)

The Bears are one of the hottest teams in college basketball and they were at their absolute, unbeatable best when they dominated Creighton in the Third Round, winning by 30. Every Bears starter was in double figure and even more impressively, the Bears defense held the Blue Jays Doug McDermott to just 15 points. Guard Brady Heslip has improved his three point shooting exponentially in his senior year after a tough junior year shooting the ball from long range. When not shooting from deep, the Bears like to pound it inside to 7'1 C Isaiah Austin and 6'9 F Cory Jefferson. Throw in 6'8 Rico Gathers and you can quickly see why the Bears are one of the most imposing and toughest teams to play against in the country.

The Badgers seemed down and out against Oregon after getting blown out in the first half. But they played with a sense of urgency in the second half and were able to pull off the comeback victory. They proved those right that had said this edition of the Badgers was the best offensive team Bo Ryan has had as coach. Junior guard Traevon Jackson is so good at finding ways to score, whether is it by hitting shots, or driving to the lane and drawing fouls. Jackson is also a superb rebounder and easily Wisconsin's most important player on the floor. Senior guard Ben Brust is consistent, if not spectacular. F Sam Dekker is the Badgers biggest inside threat, and it is clear that a game between these two teams is a major clash in styles.

The Badgers will have to be hitting their shots because they will be no match for the Bears on either the offensive or defensive glass. I think playing in Milwaukee helped propel Wisconsin to victory last weekend, and they won't get that same lift playing in Anaheim. Baylor is playing too well and is just too big for the Badgers to contend with.

Prediction: Baylor 75, Wisconsin 68


South Regional Semi-Final in Memphis, TN

#4 UCLA (28-8) vs. #1 Florida (34-2) 

This is easily the best game of Thursday night's lineup. The Gators draw opened up quite a bit with Kansas and Syracuse being knocked out, but first they have to get past the red hot Bruins. UCLA has won four of their past five games in double digits, and that non double digit win came against the #1 seeded Arizona Wildcats. Sophomore guard Jordan Adams was sensational last weekend, averaging 20 points in the Bruins two wins and committing just two turnovers. The Bruins other impressive guard is Norman Powell. Powell shot over 50% this season and that was even with shooting just 29% from downtown. G-F Kyle Anderson doesn't shoot from three all that often, but when he does he is almost 50 percent from three point land. In fact, the Bruins are one of the best offensive teams in the country, ranking 12th in points per game and 10th in field goal percentage.

The Florida Gators last lost in November and after a sluggish performance against Albany, they were much more impressive in blowing out Pittsburgh. The Gators are a senior laden team with contributors all over the floor. Casey Prather is the Gators leading scorer, and he didn't even have to do much in the win over Pitt. That is because guys like senior guard Scottie Wilbekin were there to pick up the slack. The Gators also have a monster inside with senior Patric Young. Young changed the entire complexion of the Pittsburgh game with a monster rebound and dunk. Their other big man is F Dorian Finney-Smith. Smith was one of the few Gators that showed up for the Albany game.

I expect this game to be a tight one, with constant lead changes and momentum shifts. Ultimately, I believe the Gators experience will win out over the Bruins youth. I think this game could mirror the Wichita State/Kentucky one in that you will see a lot of future pros, making excellent play after excellent play.

Prediction: Florida 75, UCLA 72


West Regional Semi-Final in Anaheim, CA

#4 San Diego State (31-4) vs. #1 Arizona (32-4)

This is a rematch from when these played in early November at San Diego State. Arizona earned an impressive road victory, 69-60. In that game, the Wildcats took control early and then held on for the win in the second half. Arizona dominated the boards in that matchup and the Aztecs had no answer for G Nick Johnson and freshman F Aaron Gordon. T.J. Connell is the Cats facilitator but he also can score if need be. After being held scoreless in the Wildcats listless win against Weber State, Connell had 12 in the blowout victory against Gonzaga. The Wildcats have been more up and down since losing Brandon Ashley for the season, but they saw some real positive signs from his replacement Rondae Hollis-Jefferson in last week's tournament games. Jefferson dominated the Zags, scoring 18, grabbing 5 rebounds, handing out 4 assists,  and blocking 4 shots.

Aztecs guard Xavier Thames scored 19 in the first matchup, but how he got there wasn't efficient. He hit just 5 of 16 shots and encapsulated the shooting struggles San Diego State had that night. Forward JJ O'Brien went off for 19 points in that game, which is odd because he only averaged 7 points a game this season, and scored just 11 points total in the Aztecs first two tournament games. The Aztecs play best when their defense creates offense, and it has to be easy offense since San Diego State is not a good shooting team. Winston Shepard is San Diego State's most well rounded player, but he hasn't played well as of late.

While their last meeting was four months ago and some of the personnel has changed, I don't expect the result of the game to much different. The Aztecs don't have the athletes or the shooters to keep up with the Wildcats, and their defense won't be good enough to stop Arizona at the level needed to win.

Prediction: Arizona 74, San Diego State 64


On Saturday, Dayton's Cinderella run will come at an end thanks to the Gators who will finally exorcise their Elite Eight demons. Arizona and Baylor will play a great, intense game, with the Wildcats coming out on top and sending at least one Miller to the Final Four.