Showing posts with label College Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label College Football. Show all posts

Monday, January 11, 2016

2016 College Football Playoff - National Championship

(1) Clemson (14-0) vs. #2 Alabama (13-1) at Glendale, Arizona

Despite their 14-0 record, the Tigers have faced doubters all season. The doubt hasn't been because of their play this season, which has largely been dominant, but because of the sins of their programs past. Clemsoning became a verb for the Tigers penchant for losing games they should win. Tigers coach Dabo Swinney has tired of the talk, but even with his team at 14-0, pretty much anyone outside of the Tigers program, is confident that Clemson won't beat Alabama tonight. While the Clemson program has a tortured history, the Tide have a decorated one. Clemson has one national championship in program history and that was 35 years ago. Alabama will be looking to win its 16th national championship and fourth in seven years. An interesting stat is that in all three of Nick Saban's national titles since becoming coach at Alabama, the Tide have had one loss. Some teams have been crippled by one loss and immediately tossed out of the national championship conversation. But the Bama brand is so strong, that the Tide have often overcome that one less and still been seen as the prohibitive favorites.

Both teams are strong offensively and defensively but the Tigers have the edge at quarterback with the dynamic DeShaun Watson. Watson is a dual threat quarterback and the Tigers unquestioned leader. Bama quarterback Jake Coker, while not spectacular, either in his play or in his acne treatment, has been a steady hand at quarterback for the Tide. To his credit he was spectacular against Michigan State but that isn't something Bama can count on happening each game. The edge in running back clearly goes to Alabama as they trot out Heisman trophy winning workhorse, Derrick Henry. Henry will have his work cut out for him against a tough Tigers defensive line, and Henry was held in check against Michigan State in the semis. Clemson RB Wayne Gallman was not held in check by Oklahoma, rushing for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns. He won't find things so easy against Bama's stout defense. Both offenses feature elite receiving options, for Bama it is freshman sensation Calvin Ridley. The Spartans had no answers for Ridley, who torched them for 138 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns. Tigers sophomore Artavis Scott was the team's leading receiver but he is not nearly as dynamic as Ridley.

Shaq Lawson is the Tigers premiere defender but he is battling a knee injury. The Tigers were able to overcome being without him against Oklahoma and even though he will be on the field it is likely he won't be at 100% percent for this game. The Tigers have struggled to stop the run this season, so Henry could be in line for a big day. I wouldn't be surprised if Bama starts the game by trying to pound the Tigers into submission. A big part of that likely gameplan is also because the Tigers are so much better defending the pass than they are the run. Mackensie Alexander will get the assignment against Ridley. If the Tigers can play above themselves and slow down Henry, things will be very difficult for the Crimson Tide offensively. Not surprisingly, the Bama defense has many studs and their defense is good against both the run and pass. They are first in the country against the run and gave up less than 200 yards passing per game. They are led on the defensive side by All-American DE A'Shawn Robinson and All-American LB Reggie Ragland. Strong safety Eddie Jackson led Bama with 5 interceptions and returned two of those for touchdowns.

I suspect that it will become apparent early that the Tigers have not faced a team as physical as Alabama all season. I believe Henry will make his presence felt early, which will open up play action and get Ridley involved. I think Bama will jump out to an early lead and then Clemson will spend the rest of the game playing catch up. IT will get the Tigers out of their offensive game plan and put too much pressure on Watson to make things happen. I expect Henry to be the Player of the Game and Bama to once again put themselves at the top of the college football ladder.

Prediction: Alabama 34, Clemson 21

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Cram Session - Week 11

Thursday, November 12

Buffalo (4-4) at New York Jets (5-3)

Rex Ryan returns to the Meadowlands, a place where he peaked early and then couldn't find that winning formula again in his later years. Rex feels like he was sabotaged in his last year in New York and Rex doesn't believe in being the better man or turning the other cheek. So to that end, he has made IK Enemkpali a captain for this game. For those that don't remember, Enemkpali was the guy that punched Geno Smith in the jaw, breaking it and costing Smith the starting quarterback job. Theatrics aside, this game is critical in the AFC Wild Card race. Neither of these teams are catching the Patriots, so that means they have to battle it out for two playoff spots. The Bills offense was healthy for the first time in weeks last Sunday against Miami and it instantly paid off. LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams, Sammy Watkins and Tyrod Taylor all had big days. The Jets defense has been susceptible to big game passing games the last few weeks, even with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie lining up at corner. Cromartie could miss this game, but with how he has played recently that might be more of a blessing for the Jets. Something to watch for in what could be a close game is the Jets kicking situation. Nick Folk is out for the next month with a quad injury, and his replacement is former Texans flameout Randy Bullock. These two teams are about equal in talent, so I will lean towards the Jets homefield advantage on a short week. I think that Chris Ivory and Brandon Marshall could be in line for big games and push the Jets to a critical win.

Prediction: New York Jets 27, Buffalo 21

Games That Matter To Me

Nebraska (4-6, 2-4) at Rutgers (3-6, 1-5)

Mike Riley was definitely catching some heat for the Huskers lost season and even had some fans questioning if firing Bo Pelini was actually the wrong call. But then Riley did something that Pelini could never do and defeated a Top 10 team. The Huskers got what could be argued as a generous call from the officials on that game winning touchdown, but all that matters is what the record books say, which is Nebraska 39, Michigan State 38. With that win, the Huskers can now cling to faint hopes of winning their final two games and making a bowl game. They have to avoid a letdown spot at Rutgers this weekend. The Scarlet Knights were destroyed in their last two games by Ohio State and Michigan. They are a team that struggles mightily passing the ball, and does only marginally better running. They have a mediocre offense and a bad defense, hence why they are 3-6. When RB Robert Martin is able to get in a flow he is very productive. But Rutgers has been playing so much catch up lately that he is seeing a sporadic number of carries. It was evident how important Tommy Armstrong is to the Huskers offense. He isn't always pretty, but he does a great job of getting the ball downfield. Terrell Newby has been battling injuries so Imani Cross got the bulk of the carries last Saturday and responded well. I would be surprised if he isn't the main ball carrier in this game. The letdown spot does concern me, and this game will probably be close, but I like the Huskers to build off the momentum of last week's win and string together their first winning streak of the season.

Prediction: Nebraska 35, Rutgers 27

Top 10

#1 Clemson (9-0, 6-0) at Syracuse (3-6, 1-4)

The Tigers validated the playoff committee's faith in them by defeating Florida State at home last week. The win clinched the Atlantic Division for Clemson, setting them up for an ACC Championship showdown with North Carolina in the next few weeks. Until then, the Tigers look to navigate what on paper appears to be an easy schedule. I don't think people should overlook the game at South Carolina, as you never know with rivalry games. Cuse have lost six straight and their fans have moved on to basketball season. They will try to make a difference in this game but the Tigers have way too much talent and I expect Deshaun Watson to have his way with the Orange.

Prediction: Clemson 45, Syracuse 27

#2 Alabama (8-1, 5-1)  at #17 Mississippi State (7-2, 3-2)

The Tide crushed LSU at home, and made Leonard Fournette look mortal. Their home loss to a 3 loss Ole Miss team is ancient history to everyone and I am almost surprised the committee didn't make Alabama their number one team. Alabama does have a highly impressive resume and can add another strong road win as they play Dak Prescott and Mississippi State on Saturday. Prescott isn't getting the pub he got last year when he pushed the Bulldogs all the way to number one, but he has been spectacular this season. He has 18 TDs and just 1 interception, and leads the Bulldogs in rushing with 418 yards and 7 touchdowns. The Tide defense was up to the task against Fournette, but he can only run the ball, with Prescott they will have to be aware of both the run and pass. The problem with relying so much on just one guy though, as LSU learned, was if he is shut down, then what do you turn to? Alabama has multiple guys on offense they can turn to. Running back Derrick Henry is their best player and the Ride rode him to 38 carries last week. However, if he was to be slowed down, Jake Coker has shown he can make plays when called upon and avoid the big mistake. The Bulldogs defense follows the bend but don't break model. They can give up a healthy amount of yards, but have only given up 17 points per game this year. More often than not Nick Saban's Tide come up aces in huge games, be it on the road or at home. They will get Mississippi State's best shot, but I don't think it will be enough to officially unseat them as the kings of the SEC. The Bulldogs struggle against the run, so I expect another dominant Henry performance to carry Bama.

Prediction: Alabama 28, Mississippi State 20

 # 3 Ohio State (9-0, 5-0) at Illinois (5-4, 2-3)

The Buckeyes had another uninspiring Cardale Jones led victory last week against Minnesota and happily welcome back J.T. Barrett against Illinois this weekend. The biggest challenge for the Buckeyes won't be the Illini, it will be trying not to look past this game towards their home game with Michigan State next weekend. This is the last cupcake on the Buckeyes schedule, from here on out they are going to have to earn their playoff spot against top teams. When Barrett started Ohio State showed more of an ability to dominate teams they should, so I expect that sort of result on Saturday.

Prediction: Ohio State 41, Illinois 20

Wake Forest (3-6) at #4 Notre Dame (8-1)

I was very impressed with the Irish's performance at Pittsburgh last week. They played focused football and not like a team buying into the hype they received as the 5th ranked team in the first College Football Playoff rankings. DeShon Kizer has been excellent stepping in for Malik Zaire, so good, that I am not sure Zaire will be the starter next year when he is healthy. On paper, this week's game at home against Wake Forest should be a cakewalk. However, hopefully the Irish bring that same level of intensity they brought to Pittsburgh last week and don't lose this trap game. The Demon Deacons are dreadful on offense, having not cleared the 20 point barrier in their past five games. In fact their last win was a 3-0 victory over Boston College a month ago. Deacons QB John Wolford makes far too many mistakes and isn't accurate. The Wake Forest defense on the other hand, has been what has kept them in most games and what could possibly give the Irish some trouble. Honestly, the Irish could probably play all their backups and beat Wake Forest. They may be down to their third string running back, as C.J. Prosise left the game against Pitt with a concussion and is questionable for Saturday. As has been the story all season though, the next man stepped up, this time being Josh Adams and he rumbled for 147 yards rushing. I will be shocked if Will Fuller doesn't have another three touchdown game like he did last week. The march to Stanford and what could amount to a playoff eliminator should roll on this week as the Irish lay waste to Wake Forest and await Boston College for Senior Day.

Prediction: Notre Dame 42, Wake Forest 13

Minnesota (4-5, 1-4) at #5 Iowa (9-0, 5-0)

Boring Iowa will win a boring game while a nation yawns. Not sure why a win over Indiana bumped Iowa up four spots by the committee.

Prediction: Iowa 35, Minnesota 14

# 12 Oklahoma (8-1, 5-1) at #6 Baylor (8-0, 5-0)

We are starting to get into the meat of the Big 12 schedule, where the heavyweights start playing each other and will sort out the mess that the Big 12 currently is. Baylor has run roughshod over their easy scehdule but now they have to face the Sooners with freshman Jarrett Stidham under center. Stidham played well at Kansas State last week, throwing for 419 yards and 3 touchdowns. The rest of the Bears were not as good, as Baylor put up by far their lowest point total of the season with 31. Besides that inexplicable hiccup against Texas, the Sooners have been dominating this season. The amount of offensive talent on display in this game will be fun to watch. For Oklahoma you have QB Baker Mayfield and his 28 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He is complemented by RB Samaje Perine and WR Sterling Shepard. Baylor is loaded with leading rush Shock Linwood and leading receiver Corey Coleman and his absurd 20 touchdowns. The defenses are really just window dressing in this game. If one of the offenses struggles it will more than likely be due to them shooting themselves in the foot and not anything the other team is doing to slow them down. I am tempted to pick the Sooners in this game but have been burned too many times by picking Oklahoma to win in big spots. I think they can match talent with Baylor and since the Bears are using their backup quarterback, I think Oklahoma should win, but they will Stoops it away somehow.

Prediction: Baylor 42, Oklahoma 38

Oregon (6-3, 4-2) at #7 Stanford (8-1, 7-0)

Stanford finds themselves in an interesting spot in this year's matchup against Oregon, they are actually the favorites. They did pretty well for themselves in an underdog role in years past against the Ducks, but the country would be stunned if they are unable to beat Oregon this year. The Ducks have been up and down all season but have had some hard fought victories lately and have looked far more potent on offense when QB Vernon Adams Jr. has been healthy, as he will be for this matchup. Oregon has always struggled with the physicality of Stanford and I expect their defense to have no answer for Cardinals star running back Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey is a big reason that Stanford has dominated time of possession this season, and why the Stanford defense is giving up just 20 points a game, 30th best in the country. The slow pace will mess up Oregon's rhythm and lead to Stanford pushing past the Ducks.

Prediction: Stanford 30, Oregon 17

#8 Oklahoma State (9-0, 6-0) at Iowa State (3-6, 2-4)

The Cowboys blew out TCU at home and now are receiving way too much hype and praise. Anyone who had slightly been paying attention this year knew how wildly overrated TCU was. They could barely beat bad Minnesota, Kansas State and Texas Tech teams on the road previous to losing to the Cowboys. Despite all this because of Oklahoma State's win all the media pundits felt compelled to place the Cowboys in their Top 4. Thankfully, the committee saw things correctly and while moving up Oklahoma State, is still taking a wait and see attitude. I need to see a little more from them before I consider them a playoff team. How they handle the accolades on the road in a trap game against Iowa State will be interesting to watch. If they can get past Iowa State this weekend, they have both Baylor and Oklahoma at home so everything is right there for the Cowboys. Paul Rhoads Cyclones have pulled off some pretty major upsets at home in the past, but those Cyclones were better than this year's team. The Cyclones have not been competitive against strong competition, and while I think they can make a game of this for a half, they will eventually be boat raced.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 52, Iowa State 28

Arkansas (5-4, 3-2) at #9 LSU (7-1, 4-1)

After a disappointing loss and performance against Alabama last weekend, it will be interesting to see how Les Miles Tigers respond against Arkansas. The Razorbacks are not a team that LSU can take lightly. They are highly talented on offense and have won for of their past five game, including a shootout at Ole Miss last weekend. After a rough go of it last week against Alabama, Leonard Fournette should return to form against a porous Arkansas run defense. Hogs quarterback Brandon Allen could find trouble trying to air it out against a stingy LSU pass defense. Arkansas has proven they can play with just about anyone in the country, so I expect a close, tight game, that won't be decided until the final few minutes.

Prediction: LSU 33, Arkansas 28

#10 Utah (8-1, 5-1) at Arizona (5-5, 2-5)

Before Utah moves on to next week's home game against UCLA, they have to focus on a reeling Wildcats teams. The challenge is that next week's game against UCLA could be what decides who wins the South division in the Pac-12. Despite their recent struggles Arizona should have some confidence going into this game as they have defeated Utah in each of their last three matchups. Utes QB Travis Wilson has had his troubles with Arizona, but I expect that to change on Saturday night. The Wildcats defense has been highly generous in allowing touchdowns, allowing the most in the conference. Utes coach Kyle Whittingham will have his guys ready and I expect Utah to win pretty comfortably.

Prediction: Utah 42, Arizona 27

Last Week: 9-1
Overall: 79-19

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Cram Session - Week 10

Thursday, November 5

Cleveland (2-6) at Cincinnati (7-0), Cincinnati favored by 10 1/2

I don't have a ton of interest in this game, but Johnny "Football" Manziel will be starting for the injured Josh McCown so that could be somewhat interesting. The Browns came close to trading their all world left tackle Joe Thomas to the Broncos, so when Manziel is getting sacked tonight he can remember that it could have been much worse. Looking ahead for the Bengals, it would be surprising if they aren't 9-0 heading into their newly flexed primetime game in Week 11 at Arizona. Nationally televised night games have been a bit of a bugaboo for Andy Dalton and Cincinnati, including an embarrassing loss at home on Thursday Night Football to Cleveland last season. I think the Bengals flip the script tonight and embarrass and add to the Brows misery.

Prediction: Cincinnati 35, Cleveland 13

Top 10

Thursday, November 5

#6 Baylor (7-0, 4-0) at Kansas State (3-4, 0-4)

This will be the Bears last tuneup game before their schedule kicks into high gear the next three weeks. After they obliterate Kansas State tonight, they next face Oklahoma at home and then travel to Oklahoma State and TCU. That would have already been a difficult challenge, but it was made even harder when starting quarterback Seth Russell was lost for the year due to a neck injury. Freshman Jarrett Stidham is the new starter and now we find out if the Bears offense just hums along like nothing happened, or if the Russell injury is what derails their promising season. This K-State game should at least allow him to get his legs underneath him, get in some sort of rhythm and gain some confidence going into their gauntlet schedule in November.

Prediction: Baylor 45, Kansas State 28

Saturday, November 7

#16 Florida State (7-1, 5-1) at #1 Clemson (8-0, 5-0)

This was the first week that the official College Football Playoff Top 25 was released and Clemson finds themselves at the top of the mountain. Now of course the rankings are merely just discussion fodder at this point and don't matter until after the season concludes but it does show the Tigers that even if they were to lose this game, and it was competitive they could still be in playoff contention. Of course, that isn't the attitude I expect Dabo Swinney or his players to take. Game planning for the Seminoles this week will be a challenge for the Tigers as we don't yet know if Sean Maguire or Everett Golson will get the start for Florida State. Seminoles star RB Dalvin Cook is also questionable, although I would be very surprised if he sits this game out. Cook spurned Clemson in the recruiting process and some Tigers have vowed to make him pay for that decision. Tigers QB Deshaun Watson has been excellent in the Tigers last two games and seems to be past the interception bug that had bit him previous to those games. Cook gets most of the headlines in the ACC but the Tigers also have an excellent running back in Wayne Gallman. These teams are both run heavy and the Seminoles defense has struggled stopping the run more than Clemson's. The last time Florida State was in Death Valley they mauled the Tigers and embarrassed them in primetime. Whether its Maguire or Golson the result will be the same. I expect a competitive, tight game, and as long as Watson doesn't become interception happy, the Tigers to further raise their playoff stock with a signature win.

Prediction: Clemson 28, Florida State 23

#2 LSU (7-0, 4-0) at #4 Alabama (7-1, 4-1)

Right now both these teams are playoff teams but after one of them loses to the other on Saturday I would expect that to change. For Alabama a loss should mean the end of their playoff hopes, although their brand always seems to get raised despite any losses they might have. The game might not be as crucial for LSU, but obviously any loss leaves you open to the subjectivity of the committee. Bama is the more complete team of the two. They can run and pass the ball and their defense is better than the Tigers. So with all that being said this should be a blowout right? As Lee Corso says, not so fast my friend. LSU has the transcendent Leonard Fournette at running back and he has shown that he can lead LSU to victories despite the Tigers having no semblance of a passing game for most of the season. Fournette's lowest rushing output this year was last game's 150 yards against Western Kentucky of all teams. Fournette is good enough to keep LSU in this game, but he alone can't beat a team like Alabama. That means that Tigers QB Brandon Harris will hav eto summon a performance similar to how he has played in his last three games. He has 7 touchdowns in those three games and no interceptions, passing for over 200 yards in each one. If Harris can maintain that level of play, the Tigers of LSU, not Clemson, are the best team in the country. He was able to do it against Florida, which has a stout defense, but that was at home. I'm not convinced he can go into a hostile atmosphere and replicate those performances. I expect Derrick Henry to wear down the Tigers defense, especially late in the game. Fournette will get his but the Tide will force Harris into mistakes, and Bama will quiet some of their playoff critics by knocking off unbeaten LSU.

Prediction: Alabama 22, LSU 19

Minnesota (4-4, 1-3) at #3 Ohio State (8-0, 4-0)

Ohio State will have just one more joke game left on their schedule after they host the Golden Gophers on Saturday. Cardale Jones will be back as the starting quarterback as J.T. Barrett will serve a suspension for this game after his OVI arrest. OVI is basically a DUI in Ohesian. The Golden Gophers had a heartbreaking loss last week at home against Michigan, as poor clock management and hubris doomed them. Interim coach Tracy Claeys got a little too excited and went for the win at the goal line, instead of going with the safer field goal option to take the game to overtime. He won't have to fret over such decisions this week.

Prediction: Ohio State 38, Minnesota 16

#5 Notre Dame (7-1) at Pittsburgh (6-2)

Red zone blunders, something that was a major problem last season, nearly cost Notre Dame at Temple last Saturday. However, DeShone Kizer continued showing his flair for the dramatic and connected with Will Fuller for the game winning touchdown in the closing minutes. This week presents another tough road test in an NFL stadium, when the Irish face Pittsburgh. Pitt had been in the Top 25 as recently as last week before losing to North Carolina. Pitt always finds themselves in close games, seven of their eight games this season have been decided by a touchdown or less. They are a stronger defensive team than they are an offensive juggernaut. That's not to say they don't have some players the Notre Dame defense will have to account for. QB Nathan Peterman hasn't thrown an interception since he threw two at undefeated Iowa in Week 3.  He completes 67% of his passes and while not spectacular, he is solid, sort of like the college version of Alex Smith. His favorite target is easily Tyler Boyd, who leads the Panthers with 63 catches, including 22 in his last two games. Freshman Qadree Ollison has been up and down at running back, as most freshman usually are. Pitt got down big at one point to Carolina last week so he was phased out of the game. However, when the Panthers have been able to establish the run, he has delivered. The Irish have the major edge on offense, but it could be a tough day passing for Kizer against a Panthers defense that gives up just 186 yards passing per game. That makes it imperative that C.J. Prosise doesn't disappear like he did against Temple last week. Prosises was held to just 25 yards on 14 carries and has played very poorly in the Irish's last two road games. I expect a bounce back performance from him this week and I also think Kizer will make things happen with the passing game. The Panthers might be able to spring the upset if Notre Dame can't get Prosise going early. I expect this game to be another tough one for Notre Dame, but if they can scratch out a victory here, they have two easy games at home against Wake Forest and Boston College, before traveling to Stanford to close the season. The top teams are all starting to play each other in this last month and could knock each other out, so if Notre Dame can take care of business, the playoffs are within reach.

Prediction: Notre Dame 30, Pittsburgh 24

#7 Michigan State (8-0, 4-0) at Nebraska (3-6, 1-4)

So when I wanted the Huskers to fire Bo Pelini because he couldn't get Nebraska over the hump, the idea I had was they wouldn't hire a mediocre coach out of Oregon State. I wanted to believe that athletic director Shawn Eichorst knew what he was doing when he hired Riley, but after last week's embarrassing loss at Purdue, it seems pretty clear Riley is in over his head. I remember a time when having to go to Nebraska and try to beat them in Memorial Stadium was a challenge, those were the days. Now, the Spartans probably see this game as merely a speed bump as they head to a battle in Columbus in two weeks. Spartans QB Connor Cook should have a field day against Nebraska's atrocious secondary. Besides their terrible secondary, what has really hurt Nebraska is their inability to establish a rushing attack this season. They can't count on Terrell Newby to do anything so their only hope in this game is Tommy Armstrong protects the football and the Huskers pretty lethal passing attack is able to take over. That will be tough since the Spartans have a pretty stingy pass defense. While a home game doesn't mean much as much anymore, Nebraska at least has remained competitive at home, so I don't think they will roll over and die against Sparty. Plus, Michigan State has shown a habit of struggling to put away bad teams. But I don't think their good enough defensively to pull off the upset and with Rutgers, and Iowa remaining on the schedule, a 4-8 finish to the season seems inevitable.

Prediction: Michigan State 30, Nebraska 21

#8 TCU (8-0, 5-0) at #14 Oklahoma State (8-0, 5-0)

By ranking the Horned Frogs eight, the committee seems to agree with me in how fraudy they think TCU is. Much like Baylor, TCU will have ample opportunity to prove themselves over the next month. TCU has survived three road scares against subpar teams, but this week they have a true road test against unbeaten Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have also beaten no one of note this season, so this game is crucial for them to make their undefeated record actually mean something. Defense will be optional in this game, like it is in most Big 12 matchups, so the game will simply come down to who makes more plays, Trevone Boykin or Mason Rudolph. Rudolph will have to avoid the pick bug. His team was able to overcome his three picks to beat West Virginia a few weeks ago, he throws even one pick in this game, Boykin will promptly march the Horned Frogs down the field and put TCU in control. The other Horned Frog the Pokes have to try to slow down is WR Josh Doctson. Doctson has 14 touchdowns this year and has had two or more touchdowns in six straight games. I've picked against TCU twice and came oh so close to getting it right, maybe the third time will be the charm?

Prediction: Oklahoma State 47, TCU 44

#9 Iowa (8-0, 4-0) at Indiana (4-4, 0-4)

Despite being unbeaten the only prayer Iowa has of reaching the Playoff is to win their remaining games, including the Big Ten championship and hope everyone around them loses. The only ranked team the Hawkeyes have played this year is Northwestern. A win against the Hoosiers will really do nothing to help Iowa, but if the Hoosiers keep the game close it can only hurt the Hawkeyes already suspect reputation. I think that is exactly the scenario that will play itself out on Saturday.

Prediction: Iowa 27, Indiana 23

Vanderbilt (3-5, 1-3) at #10 Florida (7-1, 5-1)

With their win over Georiga last week the Gators locked up the SEC East and have basically guaranteed themselves a place in the SEC Championship game. They can make it official by beating Vanderbilt on Saturday, which they will do easily. Next week at South Carolina is a possible trap game, but besides that, their home game against Florida State is the only true challenge left on Florida's schedule before the SEC Championship. If the Gators take care of business their next four games, they will definitely be playing for a playoff spot when they face the SEC West representative in the championship game. Treon Harris played uneven against Georgia but if Kelvin Taylor continues gashing defenses and the Gators defense remains formidable, Harris simply needs to be adequate.

Prediction: Florida 38, Vanderbilt 9

#11 Stanford (7-1, 6-0) at Colorado (4-5, 1-4)

The Cardinal survived at Washington State, as the Cougars missed a field goal as time expired, giving Stanford their seventh straight victory.  The Buffaloes of Colorado won't be an easy out though for Kevin Hogan and stud RB Christian McCaffrey. The Buffs have a lot of offensive firepower that will test a pretty good Stanford defense. Plus, the early start was dangerous for Stanford in Week 1 at Northwestern and this game will have a 10 AM pacific start for Stanford. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cardinal aren't in another dogfight this week, but I expect them to once again prevail.

Prediction: Stanford 30, Colorado 23

Last Week: 5-1
Overall: 70-18

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Cram Session - Week 9

Thursday, October 29

Miami (3-3) at New England (6-0), New England favored by 8

Prediction: New England 28, Miami 21


Games That Matter To Me

Nebraska (3-5, 1-3) at Purdue (1-6, 0-3)

Prediction: Nebraska 29, Purdue 17


Top 10

Thursday, October 29

West Virginia (3-3, 0-3) at #5 TCU (7-0, 4-0)

Prediction: TCU 55, West Virginia 37

#3 Clemson (7-0, 4-0) at North Carolina State (5-2, 1-2)

Prediction: Clemson 31, North Carolina State 23

#8 Stanford (6-1, 5-0) at Washington State (5-2, 3-1)

Prediction: Stanford 38, Washington State 24

#9 Notre Dame (6-1) at #21 Temple (7-0)

Prediction: Notre Dame 35, Temple 27

Maryland (2-5, 0-3) at #10 Iowa (7-0, 3-0)

Prediction: Iowa 34, Maryland 17

Last Week: 7-3
Overall: 65-17

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Cram Session - Week 8

Seattle (2-4) at San Francisco (2-4), Seattle favored by 6

Prediction: Seattle 20, San Francisco 16

Games That Matter To Me

Northwestern (5-2, 1-2) at Nebraska (3-4, 1-2)

Prediction: Nebraska 31, Northwestern 21


Top 10

#1 Ohio State (7-0, 3-0) at Rutgers (3-3, 1-2)

Prediction: Ohio State 45, Rutgers 17

Iowa State (2-4, 1-2) at #2 Baylor (6-0, 3-0)

Prediction: Baylor 64, Iowa State 28

#3 Utah (6-0, 3-0) at USC (3-3, 1-2)

Prediction: Utah 28, USC 27

Western Kentucky (6-1) at #5 LSU (6-0)

Prediction: LSU 34, Western Kentucky 20

#6 Clemson (6-0, 3-0) at Miami (4-2, 1-1)

Prediction: Clemson 35, Miami 20

Indiana (4-3, 0-3) at #7 Michigan State (7-0, 3-0)

Prediction: Michigan State 27, Indiana 17

Tennessee (3-3, 1-2) at #8 Alabama (6-1, 3-1)

Prediction: Alabama 28, Tennessee 18

#9 Florida State (6-0, 3-0) at Georgia Tech (2-5, 0-4)

Prediction: Florida State 42, Georgia Tech 24

Washington (3-3, 1-2) at #10 Stanford (5-1, 4-0)

Prediction: Stanford 30, Washington 20

Last Week: 7-2
Overall: 58-14

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Cram Session - Week 5

Baltimore (0-3) at Pittsburgh (2-1), Baltimore favored by 2 1/2

Desperate times for the Ravens tonight, as they look for their first victory of the season. They already trail the Bengals by three games in the AFC North and have a loss to them. This game would likely be a loss too, had Ben Roethlisberger not gotten injured last Sunday in the Steelers win at St. Louis. Mike Vick makes his season debut as the starter tonight. However, those expecting to see Vick running past defenders and making crazy plays haven't been paying attention the last few seasons. Vick is a shell of his former self. He is adequate, but that is about it. He will be helped out by the various offensive stars that surround him on the Steelers, including Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Bryant. The Ravens will have to pay extra attention to Bryant, especially after they were gashed by A.J. Green last week. The Ravens have been competitive in every game but oddly they aren't making the necessary plays late in games. You expect to see that from a team not used to winning, rather than a perennial contender such as the Ravens. The Ravens are too good to keep losing and have too good of a coach in John Harbaugh to be a sad sack team. With the Steelers missing their most important player, they are ripe for the picking.

Prediction: Baltimore 18, Pittsburgh 16

Games That Matter to Me

Nebraska (2-2, 0-0) at Illinois (3-1, 0-0)

The Huskers seemed to be cruising to victory against Southern Mississippi last week, and then the defense collapsed and almost gagged the game away. The defense has been atrocious all season and it is obvious that Bo Pelini left the cupboard pretty bare on that side of the ball. The passing defense has been really susceptible and can't stop anyone and is dead last in the NCAA. The offense has performed well, especially QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. but once again the rushing attack was uneven and inconsistent in last week's win. The Huskers now have to try to get their first road victory of the season as they open their Big Ten schedule against Illinois. The Illini have a winning record but its deceptive. Their three wins have come against crap teams, they were blasted by North Carolina, and barely beat Middle Tennessee State at home last week. QB Wes Lunt has struggled in recent weeks and is probably being asked to throw the ball too much as evidenced by his less than 60% completion percentage in three of four games this season. However, with how bad the Huskers pass defense has been, he is probably due for his best game of the season on Saturday. The Nebraska run defense has been better, currently 11th in the nation, but that is partially because teams don't feel the need to run on them. Illinois gives up 4 yards a carry, so I think Terrell Newby should have a stronger game if the Huskers commit to the run. Armstrong should have another good performance, he just needs to avoid interceptions, which have sort of plagued him throughout the year. He has very good receivers in Jordan Westerkamp, Brandon Reilly, and Alonzo Moore, and they are all capable of making big plays. I expect another uneven performance by Nebraska but they are a more talented team than Illinois and it would be a really dreadful sign if they can't beat them.

Prediction: Nebraska 35, Illinois 24


Top 10

#1 Ohio State (4-0, 0-0) at Indiana (4-0, 0-0)

Urban Meyer finally has settled on Cardale Jones as his starting quarterback. I ended up being wrong twice, as I kept thinking J.T. Barrett would win out because of his larger body of work, but Urbs is all about Cardale. The Buckeyes have struggled with inferior opponents and if their minds aren't right the Hoosiers could be harder to put away than most would expect. The Hoosiers have some talented players at the skill positions including QB Nate Sudfeld as well as RB Jordan Howard and I think they will be able to make some plays offensively against the stout Buckeyes defense. I think the Hoosiers can keep it close for the first half, but then Ezekiel Elliott is going to ram it down the throats of their defense and the Buckeyes will cruise to victory.

Prediction: Ohio State 41, Indiana 24

Purdue (1-3, 0-0) at #2 Michigan State (4-0, 0-0)

You could forgive the Spartans if they are looking past their next two games and starting to think about traveling to Ann Arbor to take on the Wolverines in two weeks. Until then, QB Connor Cook should be able to pad his stats and Heisman resume and the Spartans will be looking to avoid losing any key players to major injuries. The Boilermakers are terrible and I would be surprised if this game isn't over after the first quarter.

Prediction: Michigan State 45, Purdue 13

#3 Mississippi (4-0, 2-0) at #25 Florida (4-0, 2-0)

For the first time in years it feels like there is hope in Gainesville. The Gators are coming off a stirring victory at home against Tennessee, when they overcame a late 4th quarter deficit to pull off the shocking win. Ole Miss seemed to have a bit of a hangover after their win at Alabama and struggled to put Vanderbilt away last week. Now the Rebels face another tough SEC road test but one thing I can say for sure is they won't be overwhelmed by the atmosphere. QB Chad Kelly struggled last week and while he could get away with that versus the Commodores he will need to be much sharper against Florida. He will have his challenges versus Florida as during the Gators struggles the past few years, it hasn't been defense that has been an issue. One of the reasons Florida is 4-0 this year is that the offense is playing much better, led by QB Will Grier. Grier doesn't have eye popping stats but he plays the position smartly and doesn't put the Gators defense in bad spots with stupid turnovers. However, QB Treon Harris is returning from suspension and coach Jim McElwain intimated that he could start a quarterback rotation. In my opinion that is the worst thing he could do, as it will stifle the growth and momentum Grier has been building. RB Kelvin Taylor is famous for two reason, one he is Fred Taylor's son and second he was dressed down on national television by coach McElwain. He has overcome the public humiliation from McElwain though to earn back his starting job and he was instrumental in the win against the Volunteers. I think McElwain has the Gators on the right trajectory but I don't think they are at a point quite yet where they can knock off a Top 5 time. They will give the Rebels a hell of a game, but I expect the Rebels offense to make enough plays and scrape by with the win.

Prediction: Mississippi 27, Florida 23

Texas (1-3, 0-1) at #4 TCU (4-0, 1-0)

Texas has found some excruciating ways to gag away games the last two weeks to California and Oklahoma State. The good news for them this week is that I don't expect them to be anywhere close to winning late in the game at TCU. The Horned Frogs had a miracle ending of their own, except unlike Texas, they had the ball bounce their way. Trailing at Texas Tech late, TCU was able to catch a deflection in the end zone with just 21 seconds remaining to seal the victory. I don't think the Horned Frogs are a real playoff contender because their defense is atrocious but they will win a lot more games this year because of what QB Trevone Boykin brings to the table. It will be interesting to see how long Longhorn fans remain patient with Charlie Strong. After they lose this game on Saturday they will be 1-4 and looking at the rest of their schedule, I would be shocked if they get to 6 wins and a bowl game.

Prediction: TCU 52, Texas 31

Texas Tech (3-1, 0-1) at #5 Baylor (3-0, 0-0)

For the first time all year we will finally get to see Baylor against some decent competition. In three games versus patsies the Bears have averaged an NCAA best 64 points per game and QB Seth Russell has already thrown 15 touchdowns. The Red Raiders will be a step up in competition but only offensively. The Red Raiders and really the Big 12 in general do not believe in defense and I expect this game to follow a similar script to Texas Tech/TCU. The big difference though is that the Red Raiders are on the road for this win, so despite a valiant effort, I think they will have been disposed of long before any late game heartbreak can happen.

Prediction: Baylor 55, Texas Tech 41

#6 Notre Dame (4-0) at #12 Clemson (3-0)

It will be a hell of an atmosphere in Death Valley Saturday night when these teams meet and one tries to push themselves clearly into the Playoff discussion. The Irish have battled injuries all season but their record remains unblemished. It could be argued they haven't beaten any good teams as of yet, as that Georgia Tech win has lost some shine after the Yellow Jackets lost to Duke last week. Clemson hasn't beaten anyone good yet either though, and nearly lost to an underwhelming Louisville team on the road a couple weeks ago. The Tigers had off last week so they have had plenty of time to study up on Irish QB DeShone Kizer. In his two starts Kizer has done a good job of playing within himself and trusting his teammates to help him make plays. He hasn't tried to do anything too unnecessary and facing the type of atmosphere he will Saturday night, he needs to keep that mindset. If I am Brian Kelly my game plan is all about feeding C.J. Prosise. Prosise has averaged over 9 yards a carry in his last three games and appears to be unstoppable. If the Irish can establish Prosise early that will help the Irish manage the problems the Tigers crowd will bring on the offense. That will also open up play action and then you can hit Will Fuller deep. Fuller was held under 100 yards receiving for the first time last week but still averaged 14 yards a catch. The Irish defense will need to have their heads on a swivel trying to defense Tigers QB Deshaun Watson. Watson doesn't use his legs to make plays as much as people might think, but the threat is one that defenses need to be aware of. Watson is an accurate passer but he does press at times, so the Irish defense will have a chance to create some turnovers. Tigers RB Wayne Gallman has gotten better each game this season and the Irish rush defense was not very good against UMASS last weekend. This is a really tough game to predict, as I feel like we won't really know too much about each team until after they play each other. I do think they are pretty evenly matched squads, so I have to lean to the homefield advantage Clemson will enjoy. It is crucial for Notre Dame that they don't fall behind early or things will get very ugly. I think this game will mirror the Irish's game at Florida State last year, right down to the heartbreaking ending.

Prediction: Clemson 31, Notre Dame 28

Arizona State (2-2, 0-1) at #7 UCLA (4-0, 1-0)

The Sun Devils are on the verge of having their season go off the rails after being blasted at home by USC last week. They face an even better team this week in UCLA. I picked the Bruins to fall on the road at Arizona last week and boy was I wrong. After some shaky efforts, freshman QB Josh Rosen was back to playing up to the hype that preceded him. With Oregon being completely terrible this year, it appears that the Bruins are fighting the Utes to be the class of the Pac-12 this season. UCLA's run defense was not very good last week and that is something the Sun Devils will look to expose in this game. I don't expect UCLA to look as good as they did last week or the Sun Devils to look as bad as they did, leading to a game a little closer than most would expect.

Prediction: UCLA 38, Arizona State 28

#13 Alabama (3-1, 0-1) at #8 Georgia (4-0, 2-0)

A big deal is being made out of the fact that Georgia are favorites over mighty Bama. I am not really sure why, it seems reasonable to me. The game is in Athens and Alabama doesn't appear to be nearly as mighty as we have seen them be in recent years. We don't know a ton about Georgia either. They haven't played anyone that I would call good. What we do know is that the Bama defense will have their hands full with Bulldogs RB Nick Chubb. QB Greyson Lambert has also been very good, throwing zero interceptions through four games and having an absurd completion percentage in his last two games. He has completed 33 of 35 passes, throwing just one incompletion in each game. You have to figure that hot streak won't continue, but the Bama defense can be carved up by evidence of what Ole Miss did to them. I don't expect Lambert to be the focal point though, Georgia will try to pound the rock with Chubb, much like Alabama will try to pound things with RB Derrick Henry, who already has 8 rushing touchdowns this season. QB Jake Coker has struggled at times this season and I think that is mostly because Alabama is lacking a big play option at the receiver position. This is a huge game for Georgia coach Mark Richt and the Georgia program as a whole. They have always been on the precipice of being a true championship contender but never able to take that next step. If they can't beat Alabama in what is sort of a down year for the Tide, then maybe a championship run will never happen as long as Richt is coach. I believe in trends and the recent trends tell me that Bama will be up to the challenge on the road, and the Dogs can't be trusted in a big spot.

Prediction: Alabama 31, Georgia 24

Eastern Michigan (1-3) at #9 LSU (3-0)

The only reason to pay attention to this game is to find out if Leonard Fournette can run for over 200 yards for a third straight week. If he does not, the only reason would likely be that Les Miles pulled him from the game early to avoid injury since it had gotten out of hand.

Prediction: LSU 49, Eastern Michigan 14

Last Week: 8-2
Overall: 36-6

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Cram Session - Week 4

Washington (1-1) at New York Giants (0-2), New York Giants favored by 4

The Redskins surprised their fans, the national media and maybe even themselves with a convincing 24-10 win against St. Louis. Even when Washington got up early I was waiting for the other shoe to drop and the Rams to storm back but it never happened. After two games, the Redskins have the best defense in football. Now the Redskins go on the road for the first time this season, and have to face a Giants team that is desperate for a victory. For the second straight game, the Giants managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, blowing a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. The Redskins have seemed to develop a running back by committee with last week's emergence of rookie Matt Jones. The Giants also have a running back by committee but that is more because no one has stepped up and taken charge of being the lead sled dog. The difference in this game will likely be how the Redskins defense does against Odell Beckham Jr. When Beckham played the Redskins last season he torched them for three touchdowns. In the past the Redskins have also been torched by Giants TE Larry Donnell. Redskins QB Kirk Cousins also has struggled against the Giants in the past, throwing multiple picks. Past performance can give you an idea into the future but tonight is a whole new game. I believe the Giants, being the more desperate team, will finally persevere at the end of a game and not blow it.

Prediction: New York Giants 23, Washington 20


Games That Matter to Me

Southern Mississippi (2-1) at Nebraska (1-2)

Nebraska finishes up their non-conference scheduled against Southern Mississippi, desperate for a win so they can get back to .500 before starting conference play. The Huskers were dominated for three quarters at Miami last week, before Tommy Armstrong led a stirring comeback, bring Nebraska all way back from a 33-10 deficit. However, on the first play in overtime, Armstrong made a terrible throw that was picked off and then some buffoon on Nebraska made things worse by getting a 15-yard personal foul penalty. Miami barely had to move the ball to kick a field goal and secure the win. The resolve of the Huskers was nice to see, but it was another game where the defense couldn't stop anyone. Also, Armstrong played a big role in getting Nebraska in that hole with two previous interceptions before the one in overtime. RB Terrell Newby didn't get to touch the ball much with the Huskers losing, but did average almost six yards a carry and has cemented himself as the starting running back. Nebraska was victimized both by the the rush and the pass and it is clear the defense has a long way to go to be in a position of helping this team.

Southern Mississippi has showcased their offense the last two weeks, putting up 52 and 56 points. However, those huge outings came against Austin Peay and Texas State so they need to be taken with a grain of salt. The Golden Eagles are just happy to be above .500 right now after how terribly far their program has fallen the past two seasons. QB Nick Mullens likes to air it out, but when facing a more formidable team like Mississippi State, he was turnover prone, throwing two interceptions. RB Jalen Richard ran for 230 yards and 4 touchdowns against Texas State, but again like Mullens, when he played a more talented team, he averaged less than 4 yards per carry. Based on stats, it would seem that the offensive outburst we have seen from Southern Miss will revert back to the norm against Nebraska.

I expect the Huskers offense to have a big day against a leaky Golden Eagles defense, and the defense to struggle at times but also make some turnovers and help the Huskers cruise to a victory.

Prediction: Nebraska 42, Southern Mississippi 24


Top 10

Western Michigan (1-2) at #1 Ohio State (3-0)

The Buckeyes had more trouble than anyone could have ever guessed when they faced Northern Illinois last week. The game came down to the Huskies final series before the Buckeyes were finally able to put them away 30-27. Both Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett struggled and Urban Meyer remains unable to settle on a starter. This week, another MAC team comes to the Shoe, this time Western Michigan. The Broncos opened their season hosting Michigan State and only lost by 13, so they should have Ohio State's attention. I can't see Ohio State playing like crap for a second straight week against a MAC team, but they haven't shown anything to convince me it will be a complete obliteration. I expect Barrett to get most of the reps in this game and finally start to entrench himself as the starter.

Prediction: Ohio State 35, Western Michigan 14

Central Michigan (1-2) at #2 Michigan State (3-0)

The Spartans are up to number two in the country, whetting the appetite of fans hoping that both they and the Buckeyes can remain undefeated for their meeting in Columbus in late November. After a tough first game, Spartans QB Connor Cook has played much better and had a dazzling 4 touchdown performance against Air Force last week. The Chippewas have been competitive in their losses this year, and I expect them to give Michigan State fits at times during this game. Sparty should survive though and be perfect heading into the Big Ten schedule.

Prediction: Michigan State 28, Central Michigan 13

#3 TCU (3-0, 0-0) at Texas Tech (3-0, 0-0)

The injury bug has hit the Horned Frogs hard on defense and it has been showing. They gave up 37 points to SMU last week and now face a difficult road test in Lubbock. TCU's wins have not been overly impressive this year, while the Red Raiders did go to Arkansas and knock off the Razorbacks. Texas Tech has the skill players on offense that can give a weakened defense like TCU's fits, and it starts with sophomore QB Patrick Mahomes. Mahonmes has been very accurate so far this year, and last game he completed 26 of 30. However, 2 of those incompletions were interceptions, and when you're trying to upset the #3 team in the country those kind of mistakes can't happen. Defensively, the Red Raiders aren't good so this game may just have to turn into a shootout. I don't expect Texas Tech to slow down Trevone Boykin or really any of the Horned Frogs offense. I think this game will have one of those finishes where it simply comes down to who has the ball last. Sometimes you have to make bold upset picks and I feel this is the spot for one.

Prediction: Texas Tech 42, TCU 37

Vanderbilt (1-2, 0-1) at #3 Mississippi (3-0, 1-0)

The Rebels did the unthinkable, going to Alabama and not just beating the Crimson Tide but basically dominating them. The Tide made it interesting late but at different points in the game Ole Miss was leading 30-10 and 43-24. They have some tough games remaining but they should be favored in each of them, so you know Rebels fans are getting excited about their team's national championship prospects. It will be interesting to see how Ole Miss fares against Vanderbilt and if they suffer any sort of letdown. I think the answer to that question will be telling as to how they will fare with heightened expectations the rest of the season.

Prediction: Mississippi 51, Vanderbilt 17

Rice (2-1) at #5 Baylor (2-0)

After a week off the Bears are back at it against an inferior opponent, before beginning their Big 12 schedule next week. Rice is able to put up a lot of points and the Bears defense is easily the team's weakness, so this should at least be a fun game to watch if you like seeing lots of points scored. Bears QB Seth Russell needs to clean up his play a bit though, as he has thrown 4 interceptions in just two games, including three two weeks ago in the win against Lamar. He can get away with those types of things now, but once conference season hits, it could cost the Bears game.

Prediction: Baylor 56, Rice 28

Massachusetts (0-2) at #6 Notre Dame (3-0)

Boy, did I over value how good Georgia Tech was based off a couple of cupcake wins. However, after the haphazard performance Notre Dame had at Virginia, especially on defense, I never would have envisioned them completely dominating the Yellow Jackets offensive attack. For this week's game against the Minutemen, I could probably line up at quarterback and Notre Dame would still win. I am happy to see the Irish schedule a true cupcake for a change. All the other big time schools do it, most of them schedule multiple cupcakes, so why not Notre Dame. RB C.J. Prosise and WR Will Fuller are carrying the Irish offense. All QB DeShone Kizer has to do is throw it up and Fuller comes down with it and makes a huge play. The Irish defense has been hit with the same injury bug the offense has been hit with, but they haven't let that serve as an excuse for lessening their performances. They will really need to be on their toes in a week when Notre Dame travels to Clemson.

I've never seen a second of UMASS football in my life and wasn't even aware they were a Division I program before writing this preview. They are leaving the MAC this year after just four seasons and becoming an independent. They were blown out at Colorado in Week 1, and lost a heartbreaker at home to Temple last week. I bet their kids will be overwhelmed playing at Notre Dame Stadium and I expect a long afternoon for them. Anything less than a blowout win by Notre Dame would be a disappointment, and please, please let no one else be seriously injured.

Prediction: Notre Dame 45, Massachusetts 12

Southern (2-1) at #7 Georgia (3-0)

Georgia has to get through this game with Southern this week before the main event when they host Alabama next week. Southern will give the Bulldogs RB Nick Chubb a chance to pad his stats some more and try to keep up with LSU's Leonard Fournette in the Heisman trophy race.

Prediction: Georgia 49, Southern 16

#8 LSU (2-0) at Syracuse (3-0)

LSU is coming off a resounding victory at home against Auburn, which not only catapulted them into national title contention and put their RB Fournette into the forefront of the Heisman race. Fournette gashed Auburn for 228 yards and 3 touchdowns. Fournette is only a sophomore so LSU can enjoy him for at least one more season after this one. Some prognosticators picked Syracuse to win as few as 1 game this year, but so far they have navigated their schedule with perfection. However, LSU will be a huge step up from Rhode Island, Wake Forest and Central Michigan. The Carrier Dome might have been an intimidating atmosphere for opponents back in the 90s, but LSU won't be phased by it at all.

Prediction: LSU 41, Syracuse 20

#9 UCLA (3-0, 0-0) at #16 Arizona (3-0, 0-0)

The game of the week happens in primetime in Tucson as the Bruins and Wildcats open up their Pac-12 schedule. The difference in this game could down to preparation and by that I mean how each team scheduled their non-conference. Arizona basically has played three cupcakes, while UCLA challenged themselves by hosting BYU and barely escaping. To a lesser extent you could even throw Virginia in there as a tougher scheduled opponent since they are part of the ACC. The quarterbacks will be on display for this game. The Bruins have heralded freshman Josh Rosen but Rosen was pretty awful in the win over BYU, throwing 3 interceptions. To his credit, he did compose himself late in the game and help lead the winning drive. Maybe it has to do with the soft schedule, but Wildcats QB Anu Solomon has played much better than Rosen. Through three games Solomon has 10 touchdowns and no interceptions, and completed 70% of his passes in the last two games. Both teams have talented defenses and the Wildcats are hoping their All-American LB Scooby Wright can return for this game. While he may not be able to have an instant impact on the field when he plays, it would be a great morale booster for the Wildcat team. The Bruins got bad news about a star lineback of their own, as it was announced Myles Jack is out for the season after hurting his knee in practice. I have gone back and forth on my pick for this game, but ultimately, I think Rosen's inexperience will cause him to struggle in a tough atmosphere, and Solomon's steady play will lead Arizona to the mini upset.

Prediction: Arizona 30, UCLA 28

Last Week: 7-3
Overall: 28-4

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Cram Session - Week 3

Thursday, September 17

Denver (1-0) at Kansas City (1-0), Kansas City favored by 3

Broncos fans hoping that the noodle armed Peyton Manning we saw towards the end of last season was just a mirage, are sweating a little more. That is because Manning was basically a non-factor in Denver's win over Baltimore. He threw zero touchdowns and had an interception returned for a touchdown. The Broncos defense was able to bail Manning out, which is something that hasn't been said in Manning's previous three seasons in Denver. My AFC West pick, the Chiefs started the year strong with a dominating win at Houston. Alex Smith played well, throwing for three touchdown passes, although a touchdown pass to a receiver still eludes him. I am not ready to predict that that streak will end tonight, but I feel confident that the Chiefs are the better team and will win this game. Manning had trouble with the Ravens pass rush and things could be even worse for him on the road at loud Arrowhead Stadium. I expect another uneven performance from him, while the Chiefs weapons of Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin make enough plays to give Kansas City a crucial early season victory.

Prediction: Kansas City 23, Denver 16


Games That Matter to Me

Nebraska (1-1) at Miami (2-0)

This game doesn't have the cache of those 90s battles between these programs, as both are unranked. Still, it should be a competitive, entertaining game when they play each other on Saturday. Nebraska was able to get the bad taste of the BYU loss out of their mouths by destroying South Alabama. Whether or not that got them ready to play the Canes remains to be seen. As I hoped, Mike Riley seemed to decide that Terrell Newby was his guy at running back, giving him 28 carries as he rumbled for 198 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. Tommy Armstrong Jr. seems to be building a nice rapport with not just Jordan Westerkamp but also Brandon Reilly, who leads the Huskers in catches through the first two games. The Huskers will need Newby to now show he is capable of this type of rushing performance against upper tier talent that the Hurricanes have defensively. The Huskers offense will be hard to stop if they are able to hit that right amount of balance between running and throwing.

In last season's matchup with Miami, the Huskers defense had problems at times with talented Miami QB Brad Kaaya. Kaaya was just a few games into his career then, so the Kaaya the Huskers see Saturday will be more polished. Kaaya hasn't thrown any interceptions this season, and the Huskers secondary showed against BYU that they can be susceptible to the big play. Speaking of big play, the Huskers should be spending a lot of their preparation time on RB Joseph Yearby. Yearby is not just a talented running back, but can also hurt teams as a receiver. I expect Miami to move Yearby around quite a bit in their offensive formations, to try to keep the Huskers defense guessing.

Nebraska is still a work in progress under Riley and I don't think they have come together enough as a team to go on the road and beat the Canes. Miami is a work in progress as well, and that is where the home field advantage will make the difference.

Prediction: Miami 30, Nebraska 24


Top 10

Friday, September 18

#9 Florida State (2-0, 0-0) at Boston College (2-0, 0-0)

A rare Top 10 college football game under the Friday night lights. Strange things tend to happen when ranked teams go on the road on Thursday nights, and the Eagles will be doing everything in their power to transition that to Friday nights. The Eagles will be getting quite a bump in competition after playing Maine and Howard. Their defense only allowed 3 points in those two victories, and shut out Howard in a 76-0 victory. Everett Golson has avoided the turnover bug in his first two starts, but the bigger story on offense for the Seminoles has been RB Dalvin Cook. Cook is averaging over 8 yards per carry in his first two games and shredded South Florida for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns. Boston College will have to cut down his production significantly to have any prayer in this game. Boston College has come close the previous two years to knocking off Florida State, and might feel they are due. However, I expect this will end up another cruel chapter in the story of their inability to upset the Seminoles.

Prediction: Florida State 30, Boston College 27


Saturday, September 19

Northern Illinois (2-0) at #1 Ohio State (2-0)

Ohio State didn't kill Hawaii enough or gave up too few points by shutting them out, so they are no longer unanimously #1 in the AP poll. They face another cupcake this week in Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois has flirted with relevancy a couple times in the past decade or so but this year isn't one of those years. The only reason to watch this game is to see how Urban Meyer uses Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett at quarterback.

Prediction: Ohio State 49, Northern Illinois 10

#15 Mississippi (2-0, 0-0) at #2 Alabama (2-0, 0-0)

By sending College Gameday to Tuscaloosa they have deemed this the game of the weekend. For some reason it isn't starting until 915 pm eastern and with how long college football games take, only the most diehard of fans will be awake for the finish of this one. The SEC took a hit last week as the conference saw some really poor performances from some of their supposed better teams. These two teams did not fall into that trap, especially Mississippi, which scored over 70, yes 70 points for the second straight week. The most fascinating subplot of this game will be seeing how the Rebels offensive firepower fares against the stout Crimson Tide defense. QB Chad Kelly had a game for the ages against Fresno State last week and probably gave coach Huge Freeze confidence that he can try to air it out some this weekend. Senior WR Cody Core and junior WR Quincy Abedoyejo and the returning Laquon Treadwell will draw heavy coverage from the Tide, but the Bama defense also has to put their attention on a smorgasbord of running back options that the Rebels employ.

Saban and the Tide offense will try to pound the rock with RB Derrick Henry, but when called upon will need QB Jake Coker to quickly step up his game. Coker has been serviceable the first two weeks, but if the Tide defense can't slow down this Rebels attack, Coker will need to do more. It only makes sense that the Alabama offensive game plan will focus on Henry to control the clock and keep the ball out of the Rebels high powered offenses hands.

I am going to go out on a major limb here and predict that the Rebels 70+ points scoring streak comes to an end on Saturday! All kidding aside, I don't think the Tide will shut down the Rebels completely, so it will be imperative that the Bama offense is clicking. Bama's players will have a little extra motivation this week as they remember losing to Mississippi last season. Add that motivation to all the talk the Rebels offense has received so far and I expect a big time atmosphere for this game.

Prediction: Alabama 34, Mississippi 24


SMU (1-1) at #3 TCU (2-0)

TCU and Baylor have begun to develop quite the rivalry since TCU joined the Big 12 and in this instance TCU will probably try to top Baylor's victory over SMU from a few weeks ago. Baylor beat SMU 56-21 and I think TCU can top that. After a sluggish performance against Minnesota, the Horned Frogs hung 70 on Stephen F. Austin. SMU will put up more of a fight than Stephen F. Austin but this game will still be a rout.

Prediction: TCU 59, SMU 17

Air Force (2-0) at #4 Michigan State (2-0)

The Spartans hung tough and held off Oregon late to give themselves a strong, playoff resume building win at home. Their players now to have refocus on a team that is likely to not get the juices flowing as much, but can't be overlooked in Air Force. The next month appears to be a pretty easy one for the Spartans schedule wise, so they need to get some style points in these games and keep their perception strong. In this game, I expect some sluggishness out of the Spartans but not enough for the game to be overly interesting

Prediction: Michigan State 35, Air Force 20

Stanford (1-1, 0-0) at #6 USC (2-0, 0-0)

This game lost quite a bit of luster with Stanford's season opening stinker at Northwestern. The Trojans have decimated their first two opponents, so Cody Kessler faces his first true challenge in the Cardinal's defense. The Cardinal offense, led by QB Kevin Hogan found their footing slightly against Central Florida last week, but this does not look like a team ready to go on the road to the Coliseum and pull off an upset. One name from the Trojans you will hear called in this game is WR JuJu Smith-Schuster. JuJu leads the Trojans in receiving this year with 14 catches and 3 touchdowns. He also easily has one of the best names in all of sports.

Prediction: USC 35, Stanford 17

South Carolina (1-1, 0-1) at #7 Georgia (2-0, 1-0)

All of Steve Spurrier's hard work to build the Gamecocks into consistent contenders seems to be going by the wayside. South Carolina suffered an uneven season last year and is now coming off a loss at home to Kentucky. Offense is Spurrier's calling card and he hasn't been able to get that side of the ball right the past few seasons. The Cocks defense has played pretty well thus far but I don't expect them to have answers for Bulldogs RB Nick Chubb. Bulldogs fans will get maximum chub watching Nick shred the Gamecocks on Saturday.

Prediction: Georgia 34, South Carolina 20

#14 Georgia Tech (2-0) at #8 Notre Dame (2-0)

Notre Dame is quickly running out of starters as last week's win against Virgina saw the Irish lose QB Malik Zaire for the season and their starting tight end Durham Smythe. That UVA game turned out to be much more of a roller coaster ride than any Irish fan was ready for. Once Zaire got hurt and then later when UVA took the lead, Irish fans had chalked this up as a loss. But then backup QB DeShone Kizer came in and found Will Fuller for a long touchdown to seal the victory. What Kizer did, coming in cold, on the road was impressive, but even more will be needed from home this weekend at home against undefeated Georgia Tech. He should receive support from RB C.J. Prosise, who had another excellent game against Virginia after his strong play against Texas in the opener.

While how Kizer and the offense player is important, of more importance this weekend will be the defense. The defense surprisingly struggled the Cavaliers mundane offense, especially defending some trick plays. While those plays were not the norm for Virginia, the Yellow Jackets spread and triple option offense feasts off confusing defenses. The Yellow Jackets hung 69 on Alcorn State in Week 1 and then 65 last week against Tulane. QB Justin Thomas is the facilitator for what decisions will be made within the offense and who gets the ball. Sometimes he will keep it himself but he doesn't throw often, and is more dangerous when he decides to run. Patrick Scov and Marcus Marshall are Tech's primary running backs and each is capable of turning a 2 or 3 yard run into a burst to the end zone. Justin Thomas and Brady Swilling also have received a good amount of carries. So the problem for defenses is, they don't know where the ball is going and Tech has so many players capable of running the offense how it needs to be run that a defense can't focus their gameplan on a certain player. Michael Summers is Tech's best receiver, but again, passing, is not the main function of their offense.

Tech won't be hanging 60 on Notre Dame, but I think the difference will be that the Irish won't be able to score enough to keep up. If Zaire were healthy I would go Notre Dame, but while I was impressed with what Kizer did last week, I worry how he will handle the expectations that come with now being the starter and immediately being put into the fire. I think we will see some mistakes and sloppiness, and lots of angry Brian Kelly.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 35, Notre Dame 27

#19 BYU (2-0) at #10 UCLA (2-0)

The Mormons are blessed. How else to explain the Cougars winning their first two games the way they did. Against Nebraska in Week 1, it was a Hail Mary on the final play of the game, and last week against Boise State it was a Hail Mary late that put them ahead and propelled them to another win. QB Tanner Mangum has seemed to develop an instant connection with WR Mitchell Juergens. Juergens went off against the Broncos, turning 4 catches into 172 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns. Bruins freshman QB Josh Rosen has been receiving a lot of hype, which got even louder after he torched Virginia in Week 1. He came back to Earth a bit last week against UNLV, and Bruins fans should expect some up and downs for the young player. He is helped by how good the Bruins defense appears to be this season. Teams have only managed 147 passing yards per game so far on UCLA, so the chances of the Cougars hitting a Hail Mary for a third straight week are slim to none. I think most people are expecting this to be a reality check game for BYU, but I actually think they will prove that they are a strong team and give a good showing on the road, even if its not enough for a win.

Prediction: UCLA 24, BYU 17

Last Week: 10-0
Overall: 21-1

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Cram Session - Week 2

Thursday, September 10

Pittsburgh at New England, New England favored by 7

This game is so much more intriguing to me now that Tom Brady will start instead of Jimmy G. The Patriots are the reigning, defending Super Bowl champions and the Steelers are the team that many think can take that title this year. Offensively, you look at New England and you sort of just crinkle your nose and wonder how they tend to be so prolific. I couldn't tell you who will be their starting running back tonight with LaGarrette Blount suspended and aside from Rob Gronkowski, the Pats receiving options of Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola don't strike a ton of fear in defenses. However, you look at the Steelers offense, the talent jumps off the page. However, they will be missing some of that talent as La'Veon Bell is suspended for this game for the season reason that his former teammate Blount is. Maybe they can share a bowl and commiserate during the game. The Steelers are also without Martavis Bryant who is suspended four games for not being able to pass up on the sticky icky. They do still have Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown though and with the Patriots no longer having Revis Island, I would expect Brown to be in for a big night.

The Patriots have a lot of new pieces in their secondary as they look to replace Darrell Revis and Brandon Browner. I think their secondary could be in for a long night trying to slow down the Steelers passing attack. The Steelers defense was mediocre at best last season, as evidenced by the fact that 100-year old James Harrison was one of their better players on that side of the ball. I would expect that even with this being the first game and some rust being evident, a lot of points will be scored. Home teams rarely lose in these Thursday night openers and I trust for that to remain the case with old dependables Brady and Bill Belichick leading the Patriots.

Prediction: New England 35, Pittsburgh 27

Games That Matter To Me

South Alabama (1-0) at Nebraska (0-1)

It doesn't get much more of a kick in the nuts than losing a game on a Hail Mary. Nebraska was on the right end of that type of ending against Northwestern a few years ago. Unfortunately, last Saturday they ended up on the wrong end of things against BYU. The Huskers were seconds away form a come from behind victory despite having almost no rushing game to speak of. The Huskers were winning on the back of their passing game, something Nebraska fans aren't used to seeing. This weekend against South Alabama should hopefully serve as a confidence booster for the team and allow them to get on the winning side of things.

Nebraska went with a running back by committee approach last week and no one was able to stand out. Terrell Newby led the team in carries with 10 and scored a touchdown so maybe going forward he will take on a greater load. It was very promising how well Tommy Armstrong played, completing 75% of his passes and throwing three touchdowns. Jordan Westerkamp had a big day at receiver and appears poised to step up and replace the departed Kenny Bell's production.

I know next to nothing about South Alabama but it appears they have a pretty decent running back in Xavier Johnson who rushed for 121 yards on 7 carries in the Jaguars win versus Gardner-Webb last week. Their passing game doesn't look to be all that good, and stopping the pass is where the Huskers struggled against BYU. I expect another strong game from Armstrong and I am hopeful one of the running backs can step forward and start to take over as the number one back. Next week brings a road trip to Miami, so it is imperative the Huskers have a strong performance Saturday and can feel good about themselves going into that game.

Prediction: Nebraska 44, South Alabama 17


Top 10

Hawaii (1-0) at #1 Ohio State (1-0)

Besides a rough second quarter, the Buckeyes went out and dominated Virgina Tech as I expected. What I didn't expect was that Cardale Jones would be the man leading Ohio State. At least for now, he has won the starting quarterback position over J.T. Barrett. It does seem that Barrett will still see action from time to time. What proved to be a smashing success was former starting quarterback Braxton Miller at wide receiver. The Hokies had no answers for his speed and moves and if he can continue at the pace he showed last Monday, Miller switching to a receiver/H-back might be the best career choice he has made. The Buckeyes schedule is a joke so the next few months present plenty of opportunities for the Buckeyes trio of quarterbacks to put up big numbers and score lots of points, with Hawaii being the next sacrificial lamb.

Prediction: Ohio State 49, Hawaii 14

Middle Tennessee (1-0) at #2 Alabama (1-0)

As expected, Bama showed against Wisconsin that they aren't rebuilding, they are reloading. New quarterback Jake Coker and especially new running back Derrick Henry had big days and the Crimson Tide cruised to victory over Wisconsin. This week's game is all about getting out of it healthy and prepping for their SEC opener against Ole Miss next week, as the Tide look to avenge their loss to Mississippi from last season.

Prediction: Alabama 42, Middle Tennessee 9

Stephen F. Austin (0-1) at #3 TCU (1-0)

TCU had a national spotlight on them last Thursday night and underwhelmed against Minnesota. The score was closer than the game ever really was, but the media was unimpressed and slid the Horned Frogs behind the Crimson Tide in this week's rankings. This week's game against Stephen F. Austin can't really help TCU's national standing, but another poor performance could hurt it. I expect QB Trevone Boykin to lead the Horned Frogs to a dominating victory against an overmatched opponent.

Prediction: TCU 45, Stephen F. Austin 10

Lamar (1-0) at #4 Baylor (1-0)

The Bears struggled at times with SMU but still put up 56 points and pulled away for a 35-point victory. I expect them to break 60 this week against poor Lamar.

Prediction: Baylor 63, Lamar 17

#7 Oregon (1-0) at #5 Michigan State (1-0)

Easily the best game of the week as for the second straight season these teams meet early in the year, ranked in the Top 10. The scene moves from Eugene last season to East Lansing this year. Oregon is also led by a new quarterback this season, Vernon Adams Jr. Adams is a transfer from Eastern Washington so this will easily be the biggest game he has ever taken part in while in college. Primetime, under the lights with a loud crowd, it will be interesting to see how he responds. That is where he will need his supporting cast to take some pressure off of him. As usual, the Ducks have a sick array of weapons at running back and receiver. Royce Freeman is a threat to score every time he touches the ball and Adams himself is able to break out in open space and be hard to catch. Dwayne Stanford and Byron Marshall are Adams primary receiving targets. The Ducks have shown they can score against the Spartans tough defense, but the question is, can their own defense which gave up 42 points last week, do enough on the road to keep Oregon in the game?

Michigan State had an uneven performance in their Week 1 win at Western Michigan. QB Connor Cook completed less than 50% of his passes and aside from receiver Aaron Burbridge, no one on Sparty's offense really stepped up. That can work against a MAC school, it won't work against one of the better programs in the country. As I mentioned, the Ducks don't have a very good defense, so opportunities figure to be there for Sparty. I expect LJ Scott and Madre London to see some more carries than they did in last week's game. Physical toughness has always been a big question about the Ducks and they have shown many times that they can be pounded into submission by a power running team.

I am not sure either of these teams are truly top 10 teams at the moment, but we will know more after they face off. I think Oregon is the more talented team but the homefield advantage will make the difference in this game. Also, a major factor will be Adams inexperience in a game at this magnitude. I expect that to lead to some mistakes and turnovers that will force the Ducks to play catch up.

Prediction: Michigan State 28, Oregon 27

Jacksonville State (1-0) at #6 Auburn (1-0)

Auburn jumped out to a 24-0 advantage against Louisville but seemed to get complacent, and had to hang on to a 31-24 victory. Complacent or not, the Tigers should have a pretty easy go of things with Jacksonville State this weekend. Their players better savor it as their SEC schedule begins next week when they travel to Baton Rouge to take on LSU.

Prediction: Auburn 52, Jacksonville State 7

Idaho (0-1) at #8 USC (1-0)

Almost no one on the east coast saw it, but not surprisingly USC killed Arkansas State. Things figure to be even easier this week against Idaho. Weeks 3 and 4 appeared to be tough matchups a week ago with USC hosting Stanford and then travling to Arizona State. But both Stanford and Arizona State were whipped by unranked teams in Week 1, and it appears that USC may not have a real challenge until they travel to Notre Dame Stadium on October 17.

Prediction: USC 66, Idaho 14

#9 Notre Dame (1-0) at Virginia (0-1)

Notre Dame put forth perhaps the strongest statement of any team in Week 1, decimating Texas 38-3. Time will tell if that result was because Notre Dame is that good or if Texas is that bad, but the performance certainly had me buying more into the hype that surrounded Notre Dame in the preseason. One major blow though was the loss of RB Tarean Folston for the season as Folston was expected to anchor the Irish rushing attack. C.J. Prosise ended up stepping in and reeled off 98 yards on 20 carries and seemed to be Brian Kelly's choice to be the new starter. I am happy that Kelly turned things over to Prosise instead of going to that running back committee mess he had most of last season. QB Malik Zaire was excellent, completing 19 of 22 passes for 313 yards and 3 touchdowns. If he keeps up performances like that, he will start getting some Heisman publicity. The defense was also excellent, never letting the Longhorns get into rhythm. Again though, it is hard to know yet whether that says more about the Irish or the ineptness of the Longhorns offense.

The Cavaliers football program is in disarray and their season started by getting shellacked at UCLA. Their fans with their dress clothes and popped collars figure to be out in full force for this game and should give the team an emotional lift. QB Matt Johns was serviceable against UCLA but he isn't a dynamic player and shouldn't be someone the Irish have too much trouble dealing with. RB Taquan Mizzell was his best receiver last week, so the Irish defenders will be watching a lot of film on him this week to see how UVA hides him from the defense and gets him out into open space. Mizzell was ineffective running the ball last weekend and if he struggles against Notre Dame that will just exacerbate UVA's offensive issues.

Notre Dame has a real tough game next week at home against Georgia Tech but they have to remain focused on the task at hand, as a road environment can always lead to upsets. I don't expect quite as dominating a performance as we saw last Saturday, but this game should be another strong win for the Irish.

Prediction: Notre Dame 30, Virginia 16

#10 Georgia (1-0, 0-0) at Vanderbilt (0-1, 0-0)

The Bulldogs kick off their SEC schedule at Vanderbilt. The SEC has ten teams in the Top 25 and Vanderbilt is one of the teams missing from that list. The James Franklin era seems so long ago for the Commodores. As far as the Bulldogs go, this should serve as further fine tuning before Georgia's schedule kicks into high gear next week when they host South Carolina.

Prediction: Georgia 31, Vanderbilt 12

Last Week: 11-1
Overall: 11-1