2013 CAA Tournament Preview

Quite frankly, the CAA Tournament is a joke this year. It is fitting though, as the conference itself was a joke this season. The CAA suffered through one of the worst seasons in its history, and there is a chance the league representative could be as low as a 16 seed this season. Only seven of the eleven teams in the conference are eligible for this year's tournament. Towson, and UNC-Wilmington are ineligible due to academic failures, while Georgia State and Old Dominion are ineligible due to leaving the conference. I feel like only Northeastern or Delaware has a realistic chance of winning the whole thing, but am including George Mason in my preview because I am a homer. I feel confident saying Hofstra and William & Mary have zero percent chance, while I predict third seed James Madison will be upset by William & Mary in the first round. Now that I have you hyped, read on to see what I think will happen over the three day CAA Tournament.


1. Northeastern (19-11, 14-4)

The Huskies basically controlled the CAA standings the entire league year. They won their first eight conference games, but came back down to Earth a bit after that, winning just six of their last ten. They are a team that is not strong on the glass so they rely on their shooters to hit shots, which they did at a 44% rate this season. Their senior guards, Joel Smith and Jonathan Lee run the show, leading the team in scoring and assists. Smith is a fantastic shooter, hitting 47% of his shots, 87% of his free throws, 43% from the three point line. If he catches fire during the Tournament, the Huskies will be a very tough out. Lee isn't quite the shooter Smith is, but he is fantastic at finding the open man. While senior guards lead the scoring, sophomore forwards do the heavy lifting for the Huskies. Reggie Spencer and Quincy Ford led the Huskies in rebounding, with Spencer averaging 10 points per contest and Ford 12.9. It is important for the Huskies that Ford contribute to the scoring, as in their final game against Old Dominion, Ford scored just three points and the Huskies suffered a shocking loss. Northeastern is the lone team in the Tournament with a bye, so they need to just two wins to earn the automatic bid. Streaky shooting teams can be dangerous, but if that shot isn't falling, they fall into trouble. The Huskies fortunes will really come down to how well they shoot, because they don't do the other facets of the game well enough to make up for poor shooting.


2. Delaware (18-13, 13-5)

The Blue Hens are basically the polar opposite of the Huskies. They shoot decently but what they do really well is dominate with their size and rebound the basketball. Like Northeastern, they have very strong guard play. Devon Saddler is perhaps the best player in the conference. He averaged over 20 points per game, grabbed 4.5 rebounds and dished out 2.8 assists. He can shoot the rock pretty well, although he does struggle from the three point line. He almost never sits for the Blue Hens, averaging 38 minutes per game. Jarvis Threatt is the other outstanding guard on the Delaware roster. Threatt scores, rebounds and passes as well as anyone in the CAA. He has scored in double digits his last 8 games, recording three double doubles in that streak. Forward Jamelle Hagins is an absolute beast on the boards. In one game this season he grabbed 23 rebounds. His scoring is a little inconsistent but with his defensive ability and size, he doesn't have to carry the scoring load. Saddler, Threatt, and Hagins are a dangerous three man tandem, but outside of that, the Blue Hens rely on role players. Depth is not Delaware's strong suit, so they can't have any of those guys suffering through bad games or it is likely going to be too much for them to overcome. In my opinion, the Blue Hens are the most talented team in the conference and should be the favorites to win the CAA Tournament.


4. George Mason (17-13, 10-8)

Honestly, Mason has very little chance of winning three straight and winning the automatic bid out of the CAA. They haven't wont three straight since the middle of January. In some ways, I don't want them to go on a flukey run and win it all because that would absolve coach Paul Hewitt from a disappointing season. Mason has not been able to string anything resembling consistency all season long. Sherrod Wright scored and no one else did. Then Jonathan Arledge would start scoring but Wright couldn't score anymore. Then Erik Copes became dominant, but Arledge and Wright would disappear. Some of that comes with the territory of not having any contributing seniors, but Hewitt's poor reputation hasn't allowed him to receive the benefit of the doubt. For Mason to win a game or even multiple games this weekend, guys like Wright, Arledge, Copes, guards Bryon Allen and Corey Edwards all have to be playing well at the same time. It will also take Mason learning how to guard the perimeter and not allow teams to score 80+ on them. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the best teams in the CAA have great guard play, and will likely continue to run wild when playing Mason. The Mason team we saw at the start of the year seems much better than the Mason team we saw the last two months. That is what concerns me the most, and doesn't have me optimistic about next year, even if most of the team returns.


First Round

#4 George Mason over #5 Drexel
#2 Delaware over #7 Hofstra
#6 William & Mary over #3 James Madison

Semi-Finals

#1 Northeastern over #4 George Mason
#2 Delaware over #6 William & Mary

Finals

#2 Delaware over #1 Northeastern


Mason versus Drexel is really a pick em but as an alum I have to go with Mason. Delaware will probably beat Hofstra by 20, while I think the Tribe are due to beat James Madison. In the Semi-Finals, I expect Delaware to breeze past William & Mary, and Mason give Northeastern a battle but ultimately find some way to lose. In the championship game, I expect a back and forth affair between Delaware and Northeastern, with Delaware ultimately winning. In the two games against each other this year, both came down to the wire, so at least we should have an entertaining championship game. The Blue Hens have won seven of eight and are the hottest team in the conference, and I think that will carry over to the weekend.

The Alley-Oop

Saturday, March 2

George Mason (17-12, 10-7) at Delaware (17-13, 12-5)

An up and down, and maddeningly inconsistent regular season comes to an end for Mason on Saturday. At times this team has shown flashes of being very good, but mostly, they have looked average at best. Mason will either be the third or fourth seed in the seven team CAA Tournament next weekend. If they beat Delaware they assure themselves of the three seed, but if they lose, they have to hope that James Madison loses at William and Mary, or Mason will drop the four seed. None of it really makes much of a difference to me, but it would be nice to go to Richmond with a win, rather than having lost two straight.

Mason was beaten from start to finish by Delaware at the Patriot Center last month, but currently is riding a 4-game road winning streak. Delaware has struggled a bit at home in conference, so a Mason upset is not out of the question. The Blue Hens may also not be as motivated since they are locked into a 2 seed in the CAA Tournament. In the first meeting three players basically teamed up to beat Mason, the Blue Hens guards Devon Saddler and Jarvis Threatt each scored more than 20 points. Some good news for Mason is the Hens will likely be without or at least see limited action from Josh Brinkley, who shot 6 for 7 in the first game against Mason.

For Mason, hopefully Sherrod Wright can have a good game and build some confidence going into Richmond. Mason's biggest problem all season is they can't seem to get multiple guys playing well at the same time. It was Wright for most of the year, then Jonathan Arledge, and lately Erik Copes. If all three could get going at the same time, the Patriots would be very dangerous.

Some signs make me want to pick Mason to win this game, but when I have picked them the last few weekends I have mostly felt foolish. So maybe I will have a reverse jinx effect and pick the Hens.

Prediction: Delaware 74, George Mason 68


Sunday, March 3

Florida State (15-13, 7-8) at North Carolina (20-8, 10-5)

The Tar Heels have shown some real strides the last few weeks and have me feeling much better about the team and season. I know they won't be cutting down any nets in March, but I don't think its out of the realm of possibilities for them to make the Sweet Sixteen. Freshman point guard Marcus Paige has shown some real improvement with his decision making and shot. Reggie Bullock has become one of my favorite players to watch, as I love the drive and intensity he brings to each game. I think next season could be a real good year, as Dexter Strickland is the only senior of consequence they lose. I really hope James Michael McAdoo realizes he could use another year to refine his game, but am not that hopeful he will return.

As for this game, the Seminoles have been mostly bad this season, and if Carolina plays even somewhat decent they should control this game and win. Michael Snaer and Okaro White are the players to watch on Florida State.

Prediction: North Carolina 80, Florida State 67


Top 10

Saturday, March 2

Iowa (18-10, 7-8) at #1 Indiana (24-4, 12-3)

For the third time this season the Hoosiers fell to an unranked team while being ranked first in the country. The Hawkeyes sit squarely on the bubble and a win at Indiana would pretty much guarantee them an NCAA Tournament berth. The Hawkeyes gave Indiana a fight in their first meeting, and I expect another sluggish battle in this game. Too much Victor Oladipo and Indiana offense will be the difference.

Prediction: Indiana 75, Iowa 65

Portland (11-19, 4-11) at #2 Gonzaga (28-2, 15-0)

Barring a major miracle Gonzaga should be ranked as the number one team in the country come Monday morning. It just doesn't seem quite right, especially since the Zags play in such an awful conference. I need to start becoming more familiar with them though, especially F Kelly Olynyk.

Prediction: Gonzaga 79, Portland 52

#5 Miami (23-4, 14-1) at #3 Duke (24-4, 11-4)

This is the game of the weekend in college basketball. The Hurricanes finally lost an ACC game, getting throttled at Wake Forest, but rebounded nicely at home against Virginia Tech. Duke will be desperate to play well and win this game after Miami handed them one of the more embarrassing losses in Coach K's career at Duke. Miami has been ugly offensively most of the season but couldn't miss against Duke, while the Blue Devils couldn't hit the broad side of a barn that night. Seth Curry shot 0-10, which you figure can't come anywhere close to happening again. The lack of Ryan Kelly was really apparent with how Kenny Kadji had his way inside in that first meeting. I expect this game to be much more competitive, with Duke having to play very well to squeak out with a victory.

Prediction: Duke 64, Miami 60

West Virginia (13-15, 6-9) at #6 Kansas (24-4, 12-3)

A terrible season in major college sports for West Virginia. The football team imploded after a strong start, and the basketball team will probably not even make the CBI or CIT. The Jayhawks are still in the race for a number one seed, and strengthened their case with a come from behind win at Iowa State earlier this week.

Prediction: Kansas 77, West Virginia 62

Rutgers (13-13, 4-11) at #7 Georgetown (22-4, 12-3)

Otto Porter is basically all you need to know about the Hoyas and this game. Otto has been willing the Hoyas to victories and the Hoyas haven't lost since January 19th to South Florida (wtf?). Rutgers record isn't good but they do play tough and are rarely blown out.

Prediction: Georgetown 65, Rutgers 56

Alabama (19-9, 11-4) at #8 Florida (22-5, 12-3)

The Gators are suffering from the road blues in the SEC, dropping their last two road games. They still remain dominant as ever at home, and have a big game here against second place Alabama. The Tide have won five of six, but that has come against the middle of the pack and dregs of the SEC. If this game were in Bama, I would give them a chance, but no SEC team has come close to touching the Gators in Gainesville.

Prediction: Florida 74, Alabama 59

#10 Louisville (23-5, 11-4) at #12 Syracuse (22-6, 10-5)

These two teams will eventually move this rivalry to the ACC, but this will be their last meeting as Big East teams. Cuse has been struggling lately, while Louisville has looked great since that 5 overtime classic against Notre Dame. The Cardinal will be looking for revenge, as the Orange defeated them in Louisivlle in January, when the Cardinal were ranked number one in the country. Forward Chane Behanan had the dunk of the season Wednesday night against DePaul. If you haven't seen that, YouTube it. The Hoyas proved that the Orange can be beaten at the Carrier Dome, and I think with Syracuse scuffling they are due for another home loss.

Prediction: Louisville 60, Syracuse 58


Sunday, March 3

#9 Michigan State (22-6, 11-4) at #4 Michigan (23-5, 10-5)

The Wolverines were shocked by Penn State Wednesday night, the Nittany Lions first win in the Big Ten all season. Perhaps, they were caught looking ahead to hosting the Spartans on Sunday. Michigan is desperate for revenge after being embarrassed in East Lansing, 75-52. The Spartans also come into this game licking their wounds, currently on a 2 game losing streak. Trey Burke was the only Wolverine that showed up in the first meeting. For Michigan to win this time, he will need some help from Glenn Robinson III and Tim Hardaway Jr. The Wolverines will also need to up the defensive intensity since Sparty shot almost 50% in the last game between these teams. This game should be  intense with the rivalry aspect and both teams desperate to get back on the right track.

Prediction: Michigan 71, Michigan State 65


Last Week: 8-3
Overall: 24-9

The Alley-Oop

Saturday, February 23

William & Mary (12-14, 6-9) at George Mason (16-11, 9-6)

 
Prediction: George Mason 65, William & Mary 64

NC State (19-7, 8-5) at North Carolina (18-8, 8-5)


Prediction: North Carolina 75, NC State 68


Top 10

Saturday, February 23

#2 Miami (22-3, 13-0) at Wake Forest (11-14, 4-9)


Prediction: Miami 57, Wake Forest 53

San Diego (13-15, 6-7) at #3 Gonzaga (26-2, 13-0)


Prediction: Gonzaga 78, San Diego 64

Arkansas (17-9, 8-5) at #5 Florida (21-4, 11-2)


Prediction: Florida 84, Arkansas 63

#11 Georgetown (20-4, 10-3) at #8 Syracuse (22-4, 10-3)


Prediction: Syracuse 67, Georgetown 65

TCU (10-16, 1-12) at #9 Kansas (22-4, 10-3)


Prediction: Kansas 90, TCU 58

Seton Hall (13-14, 2-12) at #10 Louisville (21-5, 9-4)


Prediction: Louisville 76, Seton Hall 64


Sunday, February 24

#4 Michigan State (22-5, 11-3) at #18 Ohio State (19-7, 9-5)


Prediction: Michigan State 63, Ohio State 61

Boston College (12-14, 4-9) at #6 Duke (23-3, 10-3)


Prediction: Duke 70,  Boston College 57

Illinois (20-8, 7-7) at #7 Michigan (22-4, 9-4)



Prediction: Michigan 68, Illinois 63


Last Week: 10-2
Overall: 16-6

The Alley-Oop

Pretty terrible slate of games in the Top 10 this weekend. However, that being said, this has been one of the most upset filled seasons I can remember, so it may turn out to be interesting. For George Mason, Saturday is Homecoming and I was lucky enough to score free tickets to the game, that should have me just a few rows away from the action. North Carolina will be looking for revenge against Virginia, and badly needs a quality win.



Saturday, February 16

Georgia State (13-14, 8-6) at George Mason (15-10)

An odd season for the Patriots continued last night, as they came from behind to defeat Drexel on the road. In years past, even when Mason had pretty good teams, those teams would struggle on the road, but were always dominant at home. This season, a mediocre Mason team hasn't been that great at home, but has played most of their best games on the road. They hope to put forth a strong home performance for Homecoming on Saturday against Georgia State.

Athletic guards have given Mason problems this year, so it could be a long day trying to guard the Panthers R.J. Hunter. Hunter has struggled with his shot in his last two games, shooting a combined 6 for 26. But he is also capable of exploding, like he did for 38 points against Old Dominion. The Panthers other dangerous guard is Devonta White. White has scored in double figures in every game this season but one. The transfer from Virginia Tech, Manny Atkins, is the Panthers leading rebounder and third leading scorer. The Panthers have no shortage of offensive firepower, so Mason will have to play some excellent defense.

The Patriots leading scorer Sherrod Wright has looked a little off in his last three games, and I think for Mason to win Saturday he will have to get back on track. Obviously, he will need some help, but Mason will need his firepower to keep up with the Panthers guards. It would also be nice if Eric Copes can continue his strong play, and limit the effectiveness of Atkins on the boards.

You never know which Mason team you will get from game to game, but hopefully a packed house for Homecoming will have the team mentally prepared and ready to put forth the performance necessary to earn a victory.

Prediction: George Mason 67, Georgia State 62

Virginia (18-6, 8-3) at North Carolina (16-8, 6-5)

The Heels have dropped their last two games, and now have to face a red hot Virginia team. The Cavaliers beat UNC in Charlottesville to start the ACC schedule, and have won seven of their last eight games. The catalyst for their strong player has been guard Joe Harris. Harris has gone for over 20 points in four of his last five games. For Carolina, James Michael McAdoo has not looked good in the last two games and needs to play much better on Saturday. His shoot has looked off and his dreadful free throw shooting really cost the Heels against Duke.

Carolina had their worst offensive performance of the season against Virginia, mostly because only Reggie Bullock bothered to show up. Point guard Marcus Paige had a terrible game, but has improved since then. He will have to find guys like Bullock, Dexter Strickland, and P.J. Hairston when they are open, and let everyone get into the flow of the offense.

While Virginia has been winning as of late, they have some really bad losses, so they can't rest on their laurels if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. Both of these teams will be desperate and this game should have a postseason level of intensity to it. It will really come down to whether or not the Heels can get their offense flowing, and defensively, not allow anyone else besides Harris to take over.

Prediction: North Carolina 61, Virginia 58


Top 10

Saturday, February 16

Purdue (12-13, 5-7) at #1 Indiana (22-3, 10-2)

Indiana still appears to be the favorite come March to cut down the nets. They recovered from the tough loss at Illinois, by earning an impressive road win at Ohio State. This is their second time playing Purdue this season, a team they beat by 37 on the road earlier this year. This will be a chance for some subs to get some garbage time minutes.

Prediction: Indiana 82, Purdue 64

#2 Duke (22-2, 9-2) at Maryland (17-7, 5-6)

Not many of these battles left with Maryland bolting for the Big Ten in 2014-2015. This is a huge game for the Terps, as a loss will basically mean that they have to win the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA's. Duke seems ripe for an upset, they barely survived at Boston College last weekend, and struggled for most of their win against North Carolina. Terps big man Alex Len has to have a big game, especially with Ryan Kelly absent. Len was too much of a non-factor in their meeting in Durham earlier this season. The Terps will also have to find a way to contain Duke guard Rasheed Sulaimon, who torched them for 25 points. Seems like a tall task, but Duke isn't as strong away from Cameron, and I think the desperate team will come out ahead.

Prediction: Maryland 66, Duke 64

#5 Gonzaga (24-2, 11-0) at San Francisco (11-14, 4-8)

Gonzaga had a statement win last night, thrashing St. Mary's on the road in the second half. They are basically biding their time until the NCAA Tournament starts. It is looking more and more like they may be a real factor in March.

Prediction: Gonzaga 72, San Francisco 57

#6 Syracuse (20-4, 8-3) at Seton Hall (13-12, 2-10)

The Orange are looking to bounce back after falling at UCONN earlier this week. For Seton Hall to have a chance at the upset, star player Fuquan Edwin will have to get some help. However, the Pirates have dropped six straight, so Syracuse shouldn't have much trouble.

Prediction: Syracuse 68, Seton Hall 58

#7 Florida (20-3, 10-1) at Auburn (9-15, 3-8)

The Gators put away any question who the class of the SEC was this year, with a home thrashing of Kentucky. At this point they are playing for seeding and hoping to try to move up to a number one seed. Their smallest margin of victory in all their SEC wins this year, is 14 points. That is incredible.

Prediction: Florida 75, Auburn 55

#8 Michigan State (21-4, 10-2) at Nebraska (12-13, 3-9)

The Spartans are feeling pretty good about themselves after their demolition of Michigan on Tuesday. Because of that, I think they are due for a letdown in this game in Lincoln and will have more trouble with the Huskers than people think. While they might struggle, G Keith Appling will make sure they walk away with the victory.

Prediction: Michigan State 65, Nebraska 59

Baylor (16-8, 7-4) at #10 Kansas State (19-5, 8-3)

These teams head into this game in opposite directions. Kansas State didn't bother showing up for their rivalry game at Kansas. Baylor has looked dominant in their last two wins, although those both came at home against poor opposition. Pierre Jackson is a terrific point guard for Baylor, while Rodney McGruder serves as the Wildcats mister everything. I expect this to be a close, exciting game.

Prediction: Kansas State 71, Baylor 70


Sunday, February 17

#3 Miami (20-3, 11-0) at Clemson (13-11, 5-7)

Miami just keeps on winning in the ACC, and if all goes according to plan, they should still be undefeated in conference when they take on Duke on March 2 at Cameron. They better not get caught looking that far ahead, as Clemson is a tough team to beat in Littlejohn Coliseum. The Tigers Devin Booker will be clanging and banging with the Canes Reggie Johnson. Miami has won three of their last four road games by single digits and I think they are due for an upset loss at some point.

Prediction: Clemson 67, Miami 65

Penn State (8-16, 0-12) at #4 Michigan (21-4, 8-4)

Poor Penn State will be the sacrificial lamb for the Wolverines to take out all their frustrations from their embarrassing loss at Michigan State, and heartbreaking loss at Wisconsin.

Prediction: Michigan 83, Penn State 58

#9 Arizona (20-4, 8-4) at Utah (11-13, 3-9)

The Wildcats have played very poorly their last two games, and were pushed around by Cal last night. The Utes could prove to be the cure to their woes, although they are coming off a nice home win against Arizona State.

Prediction: Arizona 75, Utah 69


Last Week: 6-4
Overall: 6-4

The Alley-Oop

College basketball is a sport that doesn't always get the attention and respect it should. Sure in March, every Joe schmoe starts caring becauase they want to win their bracket pool, but only real diehards tend to follow the regular season. Us diehards have been rewarded this year with one of the most topsy turvy seasons in history. Last night made it the fifth straight week the number one team in the country lost, as Indiana blew a late late at Illinois. The man pictured to the right, Cody Zeller, got caught napping on an inbound pass, and the Illini converted a layup as time expired. For those of you that are new to the site, each Friday I will pick my alma mater George Mason's game, my other favorite North Carolina's game, and the Top 10 action for the weekend. Let's get to it.



Saturday, February 9

Delaware (11-12, 6-4) at George Mason (14-9, 7-4)

It has been a frustrating season for George Mason fans. With VCU moving on to the Atlantic-10 and preseason conference favorites Drexel and Delaware struggling, Mason fans assumed that the team would shoot to the top of the standings. Instead, they currently sit in fourth place, behind teams like James Madison and Towson. Mason is a team with just one senior, and he never plays, so it is expected that there will be some inconsistency. That is why at points, Mason looks tremendous, like they did for 39 minutes against New Mexico early in the season, and other times, where they will look awful, like when they blew a 20 point lead at home to Drexel. A major problem has been trying to find a consistent scoring threat besides G Sherrod Wright.  However, in the last three games, F Jonathan Arledge has begun to emerge. If he can continue his growth, then Mason has a chance to make a run against a depleted CAA Tournament field. It is almost ridiculous how much the team relies on Wright, who as a guard is also the team's leading rebounder.

Delaware has been up and down all season. Early in the season they lost five straight, then recently won five straight, followed that up with a three game losing streak, then won three in a row, and were then soundly defeated by Towson in their last game. Where they have found consistency is in the play of G Devon Saddler and F Jamelle Hagins. Mason has struggled defensively against electric guards this season, so Saddler could be in for a huge game. Hagins also could potentially dominate on the boards, as he averaged over 10 rebounds per game. It will be Arledge's job to try to not let Hagins give the Blue Hens multiple shot opportunities.

The Patriot Center hasn't been the house of horrors for opposing teams this season as it normally is. The last home game for Mason was the aforementioned loss to Drexel. Although Mason is in fourth place, they would have the three seed right now as Towson is ineligible for this season's conference tournament. A win would put them ahead of James Madison based on tiebreaker and into the second seed. The question is, can Mason play a consistent brand of basketball for 40 minutes? You never know what team will show up, so predicting their games is very difficult. I will choose to be optimistic and believe that Mason will defeat Delaware, but make it nail biting as usual.

Prediction: George Mason 71, Delaware 67


Top 10

Saturday, February 9

Mississippi State (7-14, 2-7) at #2 Florida (18-3, 8-1)

The Gators had been steamrolling the SEC but then were steamrolled themselves by Arkansas on Tuesday night. That's bad news for Mississippi State, who is completely dreadful, and already lost earlier this year to Florida by 35 points. Expect seniors Kenny Boynton and Erik Murphy (no, not the guy from Entourage) to have big games.

Prediction: Florida 85, Mississippi State 59

#3 Michigan (21-2, 8-2) at Wisconsin (16-7, 7-3)

With both Indiana and Florida losing this week, the Wolverines could find themselves right back at number one with a victory at Wisconsin. Winning in Madison is no easy task but I feel that the Wolverines have too many offensive weapons for the offensively challenged Badgers to match their scoring. Guard Trey Burke is one of the best players in the country and along with Tim Hardaway Jr. makes up the best backcourt in the nation.
 
Prediction: Michigan 71, Wisconsin 64

#5 Kansas (19-3, 7-2) at Oklahoma (14-7, 5-4) 

The Jayhawks are desperate for a win following an embarrassing loss at TCU on Wednesday night. You have to think that Bill Self is kicking their ass in practice these last few days, and I would be stunned if the Jayhawks don't come out and play inspired ball.

Prediction: Kansas 74, Oklahoma 63

Loyola Marymount (8-15, 1-9) at #6 Gonzaga (22-2, 9-0)

Waiting for the day that the Zags will join a real conference. People are hyping up Gonzaga but hard to believe that this season will be any different than the others. They will beat up on the WCC, then flame out early on in the NCAA Tournament when matched with legit competition.

Prediction: Gonzaga 81, Loyola Marymount 60

North Carolina (16-6, 6-3) at #8 Miami (18-3, 9-0)

It was hard to know what to expect from the Tar Heels this season. They had a mass exodus of talent to the NBA, but Roy Williams strong recruiting meant they still had enough talent to compete this season. They have been unable to land a signature win this season, but they get their chance Saturday against the biggest surprise of the season, the Jim Larranaga led Miami Hurricanes.

F James Michael McAdoo has made the leap into the Tar Heels best player that many expected he would. He is terrible at the free thow line and turns the ball over a bit too much, but other than that is exceptional in every other phase of the game. Another player who has stepped his game up is Reggie Bullock. Bullock is shooting 47% and is a lethal 44% from three point range. He and McAdoo are also the team's leading rebounders. Freshman guard Marcus Paige hasn't made anyone forget Kendall Marshall, but also hasn't brought back nightmares of Larry Drew II. He is going through some growing pains, but the flashes are there. Dexter Strickland remains a tough, gritty defensive player, who can provide you some extra offense on occasion.

Paige will have his work cut out for him Saturday, when he tries to guard Shane Larkin. He did a nice job against Larkin the first time these teams played, holding him to just one assist. It was F-C Kenny Kadji who dominated the Heels in Chapel Hill, as he poured in 18 points. The Heels also let Julian Gamble go off on them for 14 points, and Gamble only averages 6 on the season. C Reggie Johnson will play in this game, which will make winning even more difficult for Carolina. Johnson missed the first game, and his presence makes the Hurricanes absolutely dominating on the glass.

I keep thinking the Hurricanes have to lose at some point, and the Heels have to get a signature win at some point, to restore balance to the ACC. I think that Carolina can complete and not have their doors blown off like they did at NC State earlier this season. I just think when it comes to crunch time, the veteran presence that the Canes have will overcome the youth of Carolina.

Prediction: Miami 75, North Carolina 72


Sunday, February 10

#1 Indiana (20-3, 8-2) at #10 Ohio State (17-5, 7-3)

No time to rest for shell shocked Indiana, who has to follow their stunning loss at Illinois, with a very difficult game at Columbus. Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo lead the Hoosiers in scoring, as they feature one of the best offensive attacks in the country. The Buckeyes are not as proficient on offense, but make up for it with stifling defense. Deshaun Thomas is their do everything player. A guy who can score, rebound, passes well, and plays great defense. He is also from Indiana, so his success probably burns Hoosiers fans a bit more than it normally would. I picked Indiana to win this game before their loss last night, and despite that, I am sticking with them. I believe this team is too good to drop back to back games. The atmosphere will be intimidating, but it comes down to matchups and talent, areas the Hoosiers have an advantage over the Buckeyes in.

Prediction: Indiana 78, Ohio State 73

#4 Duke (20-2, 7-2) at Boston College (10-12, 2-7)

At least this game isn't in Durham, so we won't have to hear any chants mocking a player's recently deceased grandmother. A typical Duke season of doing well in the regular season, but will likely end with them flaming out early on as a 1 or 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The biggest revelation this season has been how important Ryan Kelly is to the Blue Devils success. No one knew that he was the second coming of Rik Smits.

Prediction: Duke 68,  Boston College 58

California (13-9, 5-5) at #7 Arizona (20-2, 8-2)

The Wildcats haven't drawn a ton of national attention but they should be a team to be reckoned with in March. G Mark Lyons and F Solomon Hill give them a lethal inside out combination, and Lyons followed coach Sean Miller from Xavier to Arizona. There were questions about how well he would mesh with Arizona, but he has answered those resoundingly. He is coming off one of his best games of the season, a dominating performance against Stanford.

Prediction: Arizona 77, California 69

St. John's (15-8, 7-4) at #9 Syracuse (19-3, 7-2)

This could be the last time these two rivals play each other for a while, as Syracuse moves on to the ACC next season. St. John's is squarely on the bubble but has mostly feasted on the weak parts of the Big East. If they are to make the NCAA Tournament they will have to earn it, as five of their last seven games are against ranked teams. They have a tremendous, young nucleus in sophomore guard D'Angelo Harris and freshman forward Jakarr Sampson. Cuse coach Jim Boeheim continues to keep the Orange at the top of the rankings year after year, despite consistently losing talent early to the NBA. Brandon Triche and C.J. Fair have seen increased minutes this year and rose to the challenge by upping their contributions. This should be a good, old fashioned Big East slugfest, something that will be missed.

Prediction: Syracuse 63, St. John's 56

2012 CAA Tournament Preview

Come Selection Sunday, the CAA will be one of the more interesting storylines to follow that night. Unlike last year, when the CAA was widely considered the strongest mid-major conference in the country, it has been a somewhat down year for the conference. No team took the bull by the horns in non-conference play, but Drexel and VCU have both been on fire the last two months and have gotten themselves into the at-large bid discussion. The easiest way for either of those teams to be waiting nervously on Selection Sunday is to win the CAA Conference Tournament that begins tomorrow in Richmond. For those that follow me on Twitter (@cbhsportsblog), you know how I feel about the supposed disadvantage teams besides VCU face with the tournament in Richmond. If you are good enough, you can win this tournament, whether its in Richmond or Timbuktu. Six of the twelve teams in the CAA have a realistic chance of cutting the nets down Monday night but who will ultimately be the winners?

1. Drexel (25-5, 16-2)

The Dragons have won 17 straight games, with their last loss coming January 2nd against Georgia State. Drexel is far from an offensive powerhouse, choosing instead to overwhelm their opponents with defensive pressure. The straw that stirs the drink is sophomore guard Frantz Massenat. Massenat is earning consideration for CAA Player of the Year and with good reason. He led Drexel in scoring at 13.5 ppg, assists with 4.5 per game, and tied for the team lead in steals, averaging almost a steal a game. They have another young talent in freshman guard Damion Lee. Lee was second on the Dragons in scoring and is coming off a 25 point performance at Old Dominion. Chris Fouch was the Dragons leading scorer last season, but has seen his minutes decrease this year. However, he can still light it up at times, as evidenced by the 25 points he put up against Hofstra. Their rebounding numbers are both down from last season, but teams still have to contend with Samme Givens and Darly McCoy down low. The Dragons will be without starter Derrick Thomas in this tournament as he was suspended.

2. Virginia Commonwealth (25-6, 15-3)

VCU will likely not make the run they did last year to the Final Four but this year's team is actually better. They have won 14 of their last 15 games, with the loss being on a buzzer beater at George Mason. Senior Bradford Burgess has picked up the slack left by departing players like Jamie Skeen and Joey Rodriguez. He leads the Rams in scoring and is second on the team in rebounding. Sophomore Juvonte Reddic has taken a huge leap this season. Last season he only played 11 minutes a game, but with spots opening up, he now plays 27 minutes per game and is an all around player that can score, rebound, and play tough defense. Guard Darius Theus is another player who saw his role increase and has responded well. With their pressure defense and ability to cause havoc, VCU would be dangerous in this tournament no matter where it was held.

3. George Mason (23-8, 14-4)

The Patriots come into the tournament reeling, losing their final two games of the season to drop to third in the conference. Unlike VCU and Drexel they can't hold on to any hopes of an at-large, so its win or bust for the Patriots. If things go according to plan they would meet VCU in the Semi-Finals for the second straight season and will finally try to beat the Rams in Richmond. However, there is no guarantee of that happening, because their potential Quarter-Final draw against Georgia State will be a tough test. Senior Ryan Pearson is another CAA Player of the Year candidate, averaging 17.8 ppg and 8.5 rebounds per game. Fellow senior Mike Morrison is also a relatively strong rebounder and can be an added weapon on the offensive end if he gets going early. The biggest question mark for Mason is their young point guards, Bryon Allen and Corey Edwards. Their inexperience has led to the Patriots becoming one of the most turnover plagued teams in the country. Mason has mostly been able to overcome those turnovers due to their offensive prowess, but they did come back to bite them in their last two losses. Another guard that has struggled is senior Andre Cornelius. Cornelius was suspended the first 10 games of the season and has never really found his footing under Paul Hewitt. He has fouled out of his last three games, scoring just 15 points in the process. It would be a huge boost to Mason if Cornelius can get on track. Vertrail Vaughns is not shooting the three nearly as well as last season, but still is someone that can get hot. Another great scoring threat coming off the bench is Sherrod Wright.

4. Old Dominion (19-12, 13-5)

The Monarchs have won the last two CAA Tournaments but it would be quite the shocker if they pull off a three-peat. ODU has been able to beat the teams below them, but hasn't broken through against the elite of the CAA, finishing 0-5 against VCU, George Mason, and Drexel. Their all everything player is senior G-F Kent Bazemore. Bazemore led the Monarchs in scoring and assists and was second in rebounding. Their second best player is senior F Chris Cooper. Cooper is a monster on the glass, averaging over 10 rebounds per game, to go with his 10.6 points per game. ODU is strong on the glass, which is important because they are pretty terrible offensively, shooting just 40% as a team.

5. Delaware (17-12, 12-6)

We are now getting into real long shot territory, however, they call it March Madness for a reason, so you can't entirely throw out the chances of a team like Delaware. The Fightin Blue Hens have won eight straight games. One of the best players you have never heard of is their guard Devon Saddler. Saddler was second in the conference in scoring, averaging 18.7 points per game. Junior forward Jamelle Hagins was second in scoring on Delaware and led the CAA in rebounding. Delaware was the second highest scoring team in the CAA, and were held under 60 points only twice in conference play.

6. Georgia State (20-10, 11-7)

First year coach Ron Hunter has done an incredible job at Georgia State. He changed the culture around the team and got players that were under performing to over perform. This senior laden team completely buys into the team concept and has many weapons. One of those players is Jihad Ali. The senior guard shoots 43% from the field and led the Panthers in scoring. Guards James Fields and Josh Micheuax are excellent distributors and also terrors on the defensive end, creating turnovers at a high rate.

Below are my predictions for Friday's First Round and then how I see Saturday-Monday shaking out.

First Round

#8 James Madison over #9 UNC-Wilmington
#5 Delaware over #12 Towson
#7 Northeastern over #10 William and Mary
#6 Georgia State over #11 Hofstra

Quarter-Finals

#1 Drexel over #8 James Madison
#5 Delaware over #4 Old Dominion
#2 Virginia Commonwealth over #7 Northeastern
#3 George Mason over #6 Georgia State

Semi-Finals

#1 Drexel over #5 Delaware
#2 Virginia Commonwealth over #3 George Mason

Finals

#2 Virginia Commonwealth over #1 Drexel

I don't anticipate many upsets in this tournament. I do think Delaware will knock off a shaky Old Dominion team. GMU will have their hands full with Georgia State but I think they will pull out the victory. Unfortunately, I think their struggles against VCU in this tournament will continue and they will once again be sent home by the Rams. That will lead to the Rams knocking off Drexel in the championship, giving coach Shaka Smart his first CAA title. I believe the Rams are the best team in the CAA and as mentioned above that is why they will win, not because the tournament is in Richmond.

The Alley - Oop

We are just one week away from conference tournaments starting and the beginning of March Madness. George Mason is coming off a disappointing loss at Northeastern and because of that no longer has a chance at a regular season CAA title. However, they can still earn the #2 seed, whatever that get's them, if they can win at Richmond on Saturday. The Tar Heels go to Charlottesville on Saturday and are just looking to keep their momentum heading into next week's chance for revenge at Durham against Duke.

Saturday, February 25

George Mason (23-7, 14-3) at VCU (24-6, 14-3)

VCU and their fans will be jacked for this game. Any normal GMU/VCU game has a pretty intense atmosphere, but add in the revenge factor for VCU and how they lost to Mason the first time these teams played and the Siegel Center will be rocking. Mason has had their struggles on the road, losing to such "luminaries" as Delaware and Northeastern away from Fairfax. VCU very much buys into the team concept as they don't have a single standout player. Their leading scorer is G-F Bradford Burgess who is coming off an atrocious game against UNCW where he shot just 1-12, finishing with 5 points. Their best all around player is Juvonte Reddic, their second leading scorer and their leading rebounder. Mason's guards will be tested by Darius Theus, who played well against Mason two weeks ago.

Neither team shot the ball particularly well in the last game and I expect to a similar defensive battle in this game. Mason's best player Ryan Pearson was a monster in the first game, but he has had his struggles on the road, so it is imperative that he plays to his capability. Mason was also helped by a huge game from Vertrail Vaughns, which isn't something they can always count on. Turnovers have been a major sore spot for Mason, especially in the last few games and that is an area that VCU will happily exploit as they are tremendous at causing turnovers. The inexperience in the backcourt for Mason with Bryon Allen and Corey Edwards can become painfully apparent at times, especially in tight, late game situations. They were able to get away with it against VCU but it doomed them against Northeastern.

I think VCU will control this game but Mason will hit enough shots to keep within striking distance. However, I am not confident in Mason's ability to handle the Siegel Center crowd and I think turnovers will again be a problem. Mason will lose this one and head into the CAA Tournament as a three seed and on a two game losing streak.

Prediction: VCU 68, George Mason 62

Top 10

Friday, February 24

#10 Marquette (23-5, 12-3) at West Virginia (17-11, 7-8)

Marquette is starting to get some buzz as a possible Final Four team come March. They have prolific scorers in seniors Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder. However, the Mountaineers have a potential conference player of the year on their side, Kevin Jones., as well as the dangerous Darryl Bryant. The Mountaineers are coming off an embarrassing loss at Notre Dame, and are desperate for a win to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. I like the desperate team.

Prediction: West Virginia 59, Marquette 56

Saturday, February 25

Vanderbilt (20-8, 9-4) at #1 Kentucky (27-1, 13-0)

Kentucky just keeps on rolling and finding ways to win. They were trailing at Mississippi State for most of the game, but seemed to turn on a switch and ran away with the victory. They should get a test from Vanderbilt. Vandy has been a bit of a disappointment but they have two very talented players in John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor. Kentucky was able to hold both of them below their scoring average in the first game, and since the Wildcats are unbeatable at home, it would be foolish to pick against them.

Prediction: Kentucky 76, Vanderbilt 69

#2 Syracuse (28-1, 15-1) at Connecticut (17-10, 7-8)

Jeremy Lamb saved UCONN's season for the time being with his buzzer beater to defeat lowly Villanova on Monday. They will need more heroics from him to have a chance against dominant Syracuse. The Huskies hung around for most of the game against the Cuse in the first meeting before getting blown out late. I expect a similar scenario to unfold in Storrs.

Prediction: Syracuse 72, Connecticut 65

#3 Missouri (25-3, 12-3) at #5 Kansas (23-5, 13-2)

Two top 5 teams doing battle and possibly the last Border War makes this the game of the weekend. Kansas was in control the entire game at Mizzou, before the Tigers came roaring back to pull out the victory. Missouri is coming off a surprising home loss to Kansas State in what was clearly their worst performance of the season. The Jayhawks have won five in a row and seem to be peaking at the right time. There will be too much Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson in this one for the Tigers, I expect an emphatic Kansas win.

Prediction: Kansas 77, Missouri 65

Virginia Tech (15-13, 4-9) at #4 Duke (24-4, 11-2)

It is appearing that next Saturday's game in Durham between Duke and Carolina will be for the ACC regular season title. Duke has two very easy games before that against lowly Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The Hokies are scrappy so they might make this game interesting for a half, but not much more than that.

Prediction: Duke 78, Virginia Tech 65

Nebraska (12-14, 4-11) at #6 Michigan State (23-5, 12-3)

Michigan State has surprised many, myself included with the type of year they have had. They have won six games in a row and have seen Draymond Green turn into the leader they needed him to be for this season to be successful. The outcome will never be in doubt against sorry Nebraska.

Prediction: Michigan State 71, Nebraska 55

#7 North Carolina (24-4, 11-2) at Virginia (21-6, 8-5)

North Carolina has played well during a recent tough stretch of the schedule and earned some impressive road victories. They attempt to add another one to the list Saturday afternoon at UVA. In the first game between these teams Virginia controlled the pace and led early, but eventually they wilted and Carolina ran away with it. Virginia is a terrible offensive team so the only chance they have is if Carolina is not hitting shots and Virginia maximizes the shot clock and slows the game down. They are in the mold of their coach Tony Bennett who preaches hard nosed defense. It is quite the contrasting styles when these two play each other. When the Cavs are scoring it is mostly being done by Mike Scott, who is also the team's leading rebounder.

Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall is coming off a career game against NC State. He poured in 22 points and also added 13 assists. When he plays at such a high level it makes Carolina perhaps the best team in the nation. Each Carolina starter scored in double figures in that game, but the lack of depth remains a concern. UVA will cause Carolina some frustration with their style of play but they just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with a team like the Tar Heels.

Prediction: North Carolina 66, Virginia 58

Villanova (11-16, 4-11) at #8 Georgetown (20-6, 10-5)

Georgetown was flat out embarrassed at Seton Hall on Tuesday losing by 18. Jay Wright has seen things crash and burn at Villanova where the Wildcats have lost six of their last seven games. Their last two losses were heartbreakers in overtime where they blew big, early leads. Georgetown never seems to really blow anyone out so it will be another tough loss for the Wildcats in this one.

Prediction: Georgetown 59, Villanova 56

Sunday, February 26

#15 Wisconsin (20-8, 9-6) at #9 Ohio State (23-5, 11-4)

Based on their record 15 seems a little high for Wisconsin to be ranked. If rankings were based on watchability then Wisconsin would be about 300th. The Badgers have lost their last two road games, and traveling to Columbus wouldn't appear to be the place to finally pick up a win. The Buckeyes have had some struggles of their own recently, and in losses the offense becomes really stagnant. However, when they are firing from all cylinders the Buckeyes can score with the best of them, led by Jared Sullinger. Wisconsin will attempt to slow the game down and have Ohio State play an ugly brand of basketball, but I like the Buckeyes to show their toughness and pull out the victory.

Prediction: Ohio State 70, Wisconsin 66

Last Week: 8-3
Overall: 8-3

The Alley - Oop

I am now all in when it comes to college basketball. I love the sport but during NFL season I can't really pay more than cursory attention to it. My favorite teams, my Alma mater George Mason and my favorite team since I was a kid, North Carolina are having reasonably good seasons. Mason has exceeded most expectations and currently sits at 12-2 in the CAA, 22-6 overall. However, it will take winning the CAA Tournament in a couple of weeks for Mason to make the NCAA Tournament for a second straight season, an accomplishment the school has never achieved. Carolina was preseason number 1 but has suffered some tough losses along the way and is currently ranked 7th. They aren't on anyone's list for a #1 seed in the Tournament and actually are a 3 seed in a few mock brackets I have seen. However, they still have plenty of time to win some games and improve their seeding.

Saturday, February 18

Lamar (17-9) at George Mason (22-6)

This random, late season out of conference matchup for Mason is part of ESPN's BracketBusters. While other CAA teams like Drexel, VCU, and Old Dominion were paired up with other top mid majors, Mason was paired up with a team most Mason fans hadn't heard of until three weeks ago. Lamar does have a semi-famous coach, Pat Knight, the son of Bob Knight. Lamar's attack is guard based and their two most most dangerous players are G Mike James who leads the team in scoring at 16.4 pts per game, and G Anthony Miles, who shoots 39% from beyond the arc. Just to further show how much the Cardinals play is predicated on guards, their leading rebounder is guard Devon Lamb who averages 8.3 boards per game. The Cardinals have won five of their last six games, all in blow out fashion. They played some of the top programs in the country in their non-conference schedule, suffering blowout losses to Louisville, Ohio State and Kentucky.

Mason's offense is one of the best in the CAA but overall ranks pretty low in the NCAA. F Ryan Pearson is the only player averaging double figures at 17.9 points per game. The second leading scorer is G Sherrod Wright, who was Tuesday's hero with his game winning three pointer against VCU. Pearson also leads the team in rebounding and really how he plays determines how effective Mason is offensively. He has had a few clunkers this year, but overall would seem to be on his way to being named CAA Player of the Year. Because of the Cardinals reliance on their guards, Bryon Allen, Andre Cornelius, Vertrail Vaughns, and Corey Edwards will have their work cut out for them. Where Mason should find an advantage is with their front line of Pearson, Mike Morrison, Erik Copes. Mason has struggled rebounding the basketball at times this year, but against a team whose leading rebounder is a guard it shouldn't be an issue Saturday.

This is the last home game, barring any postseason games, for seniors Pearson, Morrison, and Cornelius. I think those three will play with a lot of passion and that will overcome any letdown effect from such a huge win against VCU. This game is basically an exhibition as far as its meaning on the season but the seniors will want to go out with a win and will do just that.

Prediction: George Mason 66, Lamar 60

Top 10

Mississippi (15-10, 5-6) at #1 Kentucky (25-1, 11-0)

Kentucky is just a buzzer beater loss at Indiana from being undefeated this season. They have become one of the best defensive teams in the country and might have the NCAA Player of the Year in Anthony Davis. F Michael Kidd Gilchrist has also been an impact freshman for the Wildcats. Ole Miss just had 102 points scored on them by Vanderbilt last night, not a good sign for how things will go for them in this game.

Prediction: Kentucky 80, Mississippi 61

#3 Missouri (24-2, 11-2) at Texas A&M (13-12, 4-9)

Texas A&M has really missed Mark Turgeon and slipped back to their usual levels of basketball mediocrity. Missouri has been perhaps the biggest surprise of the season, especially considering the less than stellar resume their new head coach Frank Haith brought with him. Expect senior guard Marcus Denmon to have a huge hand in leading the Tigers to a hard fought road victory.

Prediction: Missouri 73, Texas A&M 68

Texas Tech (8-17, 1-12) at #5 Kansas (21-5, 11-2)

Kansas F Thomas Robinson has seen his number spike tremendously this season. He has done a great job of making Jayhawks fans not miss the Morris twins as much as they expected to.

Prediction: Kansas 75, Texas Tech 55

#6 Ohio State (22-4, 10-3) at #19 Michigan (19-7, 9-4)

It has been cool to see Michigan and Indiana both competitive again in the Big Ten this season. The Buckeyes dominated the Wolverines in Columbus in the first meeting, but the Wolverines are unbeaten at home this season. The combination of G William Buford and F Jared Sullinger will prove to be too much for Michigan to handle.

Prediction: Ohio State 68, Michigan 64

Clemson (13-12, 5-6) at #7 North Carolina (22-4, 9-2)

It is hard to believe but the fact still remains that Clemson has never won in Chapel Hill. I repeat, NEVER. This year's Tigers team doesn't appear to be the ones to do it, as they are just barely over .500. The Tigers have trouble scoring and rebounding, both of which are tremendous strengths of the Tar Heels. Guard Andre Young is the Tigers best player, but they lack someone that is explosive and can carry a team.

On the other hand, the Tar Heels have an abundance of riches when it comes to players like that. Harrison Barnes leads the team in scoring but their best player this season has been Tyler Zeller. In less minutes per game than last season, Zeller has matched his scoring and increased his rebounding and assists. Kendall Marshall continues to be distributor extraordinaire, averaging 9 assists per game. John Henson, who still frustrates me at times, is having a monster year both scoring and rebounding, where he leads the team with 10 rebounds per game.

It would take a completely lifeless performance by Carolina for Clemson to have any chance in this game. Carolina should get this win and then get primed for the tough close they have to their ACC season, where three of the final four games are on the road, including at ranked UVA, and rivals NC State and Duke.

Prediction: North Carolina 77, Clemson 63

#9 Georgetown (19-5, 9-4) at Providence (13-14, 2-12)

I earlier mentioned Missouri as the biggest surprise of the season but the Hoyas might have something to say about that. Many expected Georgetown to miss the NCAA Tournament, instead they are ranked in the Top 10. The improved play of Jason Clark and Hollis Thomas are the biggest reasons for their success this season.

Prediction: Georgetown 73, Providence 65

Kansas State (17-8, 6-7) at #10 Baylor (22-4, 9-4)

After dispiriting blowout losses to Missouri and Kansas last week, Baylor got back on track at home against Iowa State. Next up is a Kansas State team that is fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives, and are especially desperate after losing four of their last six games. These two played a down to the wire game at Manhattan in January, and this one should come down to the final minutes as well. Perry Jones III disappeared in those games against Mizzou and Kansas, but rebounded against the Cyclones, and I expect him to come up big in this game.

Prediction: Baylor 68, Kansas State 65

Sunday, February 19

#2 Syracuse (26-1, 13-1) at Rutgers (12-14, 4-9)

The Orange have made it interesting recently but still keep finding ways to win. They play great team basketball, where each player excels at a certain aspect of the game, and combined makes them a very dangerous team. Kris Joseph and Dion Waiters handle the scoring, Fab Melo and C.J. Fair handle the rebounding, while Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche find the open man. Rutgers has upset some good teams at home this year but the wheels have fallen off for them in Big East play and things won't get better Sunday.

Prediction: Syracuse 77, Rutgers 67

#4 Duke (22-4, 9-2) at Boston College (8-18, 3-9)

Duke once again got a win by the skin of their teeth, coming from 20 behind at home last night to beat NC State. Questions will seriously have to be asked if they face any sort of deficit against a terrible Boston College team.

Prediction: Duke 80, Boston College 63

#8 Michigan State (21-5, 10-3) at Purdue (17-9, 7-6)

The Spartans come in on a roll, winning at Ohio State last weekend, and thrashing Wisconsin at home last night. Each of these teams relies heavily on their superstar player. For the Spartans it is Draymond Green, and for the Boilermakers it is Robbie Hummel. Michigan State killed the Boilermakers in the first meeting and I really have no tangible reason to pick Purdue to pull off the upset. I just feel like there will be at least one upset in the top ten this weekend, and this game is huge for Purdue. A win would go a long way towards them securing an at-large berth. I think Hummel will play much better than he did in the first meeting, leading to the upset.

Prediction: Purdue 62, Michigan State 59

2011 March Madness - East Region (First Weekend)

The East region has the best potential games out of any of the four regions. North Carolina alone could have must see games with Washington, Syracuse and Ohio State. 2006 Cinderella George Mason has a chance to make new history, as if they get past Villanova, they will get a shot at Ohio State in Cleveland. The region also features exciting players such as Jared Sullinger, Harrison Barnes, Scoop Jardine, and Kentucky's fabulous freshman.

Best Game: #8 George Mason vs. #9 Villanova

These teams last met just a little over a year ago in the Puerto Rico Shootout, with the Wildcats escaping with a narrow win. Since that time Mason is much improved, while the Wildcats have lost Scottie Reynolds, and enter the Tournament reeling. The Wildcats have lost five in a row, and don't have a good win since February 5th against West Virginia. Villanova is all about their guards, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes, and Maalik Wayns. It will be up to Mason's guards, starters Cam Long and Andre Cornelius, and sixth man Isaiah Tate to contain the Wildcats three headed monster. The Patriots are an efficient team, that usually take advantage of every possession and create havoc on defense. Forwards Ryan Pearson, Luke Hancock, and Mike Morrison should have the necessary toughness and skills around the basket to give Villanova problems.

Player to Watch: Ohio State forward Jared Sullinger

Sullinger has been Mr. Everything for the Buckeyes this season. Sullinger has averaged 17.2 ppg and 10.1 rpg. He also is an effective free throw shooter, hitting 70% of his foul shots. Sullinger should have dominating games against either Villanova or Mason in the Third Round, as neither team has the bigs to battle with him.

Lowest Seed to Make It Through the First Weekend: #4 Kentucky

It is not exciting but I think this region will be mostly chalk. Kentucky has too much talent to lose to Princeton, and I think the Wildcats will avoid West Virginia in the Third Round, as I see the Moutaineers getting upset. Kentucky doesn't have much depth but they also don't have any weakness in their starting lineup. Brandon Knight has continued the John Calipari string of recruiting exciting guards, while Terrence Jones does the dirty work inside.

Best Potential Game: #2 North Carolina vs. #7 Washington

As a basketball fan I would love to see this game, but as a North Carolina fan, it terrifies me. The Huskies are one of the best offensive teams in the country, and a battle between the veteran Isaiah Thomas and the Freshman Kendall Marshall would be scintillating. Carolina will have to be at their defensive best to beat the Huskies, and can't have Marshall struggle like he did against Duke in the ACC Championship.

Predictions

First Round:

#16 UT-San Antonio over #16 Alabama State

#12 Clemson over #12 UAB

Second Round:

#1 Ohio State over #16 UT-San Antonio

#8 George Mason over #9 Villanova

#12 Clemson over #5 West Virginia

#4 Kentucky over #13 Princeton

#6 Xavier over #11 Marquette

#3 Syracuse over #14 Indiana State

#7 Washington over #10 Georgia

#2 North Carolina over #15 Long Island

Third Round:

#1 Ohio State over #8 George Mason

#4 Kentucky over #12 Clemson

#3 Syracuse over #6 Xavier

#2 North Carolina over #7 Washington

2011 CAA Tournament Preview

The CAA is the best mid-major conference in basketball. For the first time in league history six of the twelve teams finished with over 20 wins. If a team other than Old Dominion or George Mason wins the CAA Tournament, then the CAA will have a conference record three teams in the NCAA Tournament. George Mason enters as the CAA Champion and favorite but five other teams have shots at cutting down the nets on Monday night.

1. George Mason (25-5, 16-2)

Mason enters the CAA Tournament on a 15 game winning streak, and are ranked in the Coaches poll at #25. Even if they were to be knocked out in the Quarter-Finals of the CAA Tournament they appear to be a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Hopefully, the players aren't thinking that way and will be focused on trying to win the conference tournament for the first time since 2008. Mason has four starters that average double figures in scoring, led by senior G Cam Long. F Ryan Pearson is effective at getting to the basket, drawing fouls and rebounding. Complementing starters Mike Morrison, Andre Cornelius, and Luke Hancock, are bench players, Isaiah Tate and Vertrail Vaughns. Vaughns has been on a tear as of late, coming off the bench and knocking down threes with ease, shooting over 50% from three this season. Mason had dominated during most of their winning streak, but have scuffled a bit as of late. Potential Semi-Final and Championship games with VCU and Old Dominion would be quite the test.

2. Old Dominion (24-6, 14-4)

The Monarchs are the defending CAA Champions and also enter the tournament on a roll. Since getting blown out at Mason, the Monarchs have won six games in a row, all by double digits. They are led by senior F Frank Hassell's 14.2 ppg, and 9.8 rpg. The Monarchs are one of the better rebounding teams in the country, averaging 40.6 a game, good for 6th in the nation. Part of that is due to poor shooting though, as the Monarchs only averaged 65.6 points per game. Other players to watch for ODU include Kent Bazemore, and Ben Finney. The Monarchs also are pretty deep, as eight players averaged double figures in minutes per game. F Chris Cooper has been especially effective coming off the bench.

3. Hofstra (20-10, 14-4)

The Pride aren't getting any at-large consideration but did finish two games ahead of the other at-large contender, VCU. Hofstra starts and ends with likely CAA Player of the Year, senior G Charles Jenkins. Jenkins scored in double figures in every game this season, averaging 23.2 ppg. He is also efficient, shooting over 50% from the field. If Jenkins struggles, then the Pride lose. While Jenkins is what makes the Pride go, they do have some other weapons. G Mike Moore can be streaky and does love to shoot. Sometimes that is a good thing, but sometimes it hinders the offense. Sophomore F David Imes does most of the dirty work on the glass.

4. Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, 12-6)

Some people still want to insist that VCU has a chance at an at-large bid but those people are dreaming. However, the Rams do have their yearly advantage of playing the CAA Tournament in their backyard. They will need that homecourt edge as they come into the CAA Tournament reeling, losers of four of their last five games, including three straight home losses. F Jamie Skeen is their leading scorer and rebounder, averaging 14.8 ppg, and 7.6 rpg. Surprisingly, senior G Joey Rodriguez regressed in his senior year, seeing his points and assists totals both down from his junior season. Playing in Richmond helps, but I don't think the Rams have the talent for it to really make a difference.

5. Drexel (20-9, 11-7)

Drexel is likely a long-shot, but any team that went to Louisville and won, can't be ignored. Drexel is primarily a defensive team, that wins through defense and rebounding. That is basically epitomized by the fact their leading scorer, sophomore G Chris Fouch, shot just 37% from the field. Junior F Samme Givens led the team in rebounding at 10 per game and also averaged almost a block a game. Seven guys see minutes for the Dragons, and coach Bruiser Flint rarely diverts from that strategy. F Daryl McCoy is a big body for the Dragons and their other weapon on the glass.

6. James Madison (21-10, 10-8)

The Dukes have been up and down all season, with some real puzzling losses and some equally surprising wins. Their led by F Denzel Bowles, who scored 18.2 ppg, brought down 9 rpg, and blocked 1.6 shot per game. Another big guy is F Rayshawn Goins, and G Devon Moore brings both scoring and distributing in his repertoire. F Julius Wells regressed mightily from last season, but the Monarchs would be even more dangerous in the tournament if he can find his form.

Below are my predictions for Friday's First Round action and then how I see Saturday-Monday shaking out.

First Round

#8 UNC-Wilmington over #9 Georgia State
#5 Drexel over #12 Towson
#10 Northeastern over #7 Delaware
#6 James Madison over #11 William & Mary

Quarter-Finals

#1 George Mason over #8 UNC-Wilmington
#5 Drexel over #4 Virgina Commonwealth
#2 Old Dominion over #10 Northeastern
#3 Hofstra over #6 James Madison

Semi-Finals

#1 George Mason over #5 Drexel
#2 Old Dominion over #3 Hofstra

Finals

#2 Old Dominion over #1 George Mason

This will sound wrong but I almost want George Mason to lose a game before entering the NCAA Tournament. I would really rather the pressure of the winning streak be off of them and have them basically enter with a fresh slate. I definitely think they are better than and can beat ODU in the Championship game, so this is more a want pick, than a objective pick. I think Mason and ODU have proved themselves the class of the CAA all season, and they will have a great championship game on Monday night. Either way, both of them are headed to the NCAA Tournament.

P.S. Happy Birthday David Karpf!!!!

The Alley - Oop

I kind of like this whole notion of not getting into college basketball until the NFL season is over. With the Super Bowl now in February, that leaves just one month of college basketball until March Madness, one of the most exciting times of the year in sports. Some of the mid-major conferences close out their regular seasons this weekend, and conference tournaments will begin next weekend.

Sunday

Maryland (18-10, 7-6) at #19 North Carolina (21-6, 11-2)

The Terps have slim NCAA Tournament hopes but more than likely will end up in what seems like their normal destination as of late, the NIT. They really only have one player that is worth anything and that is F Jordan Williams who leads the team with 17.2 ppg and 11.5 rpg. Freshman G Terrell Stoglin has given the Terps hope for the future, reaching double digits in scoring his last 5 games, including two 25 point outbursts during that string. Carolina followed up a sloppy home win against Boston College, with a strong second half from Harrison Barnes that powered them to victory over their "rival" NC State. The Heels are just a game back of Duke for the ACC championship, and if they can beat the Twerps and then win at Florida State, their game at home against Duke will be even bigger than usual. Maryland hasn't broken through against good teams this year, but they have competed so this won't be a cake walk for Carolina.

Prediction: North Carolina 71, Maryland 65

Saturday

George Mason (24-5, 15-2) at Georgia State (11-17, 6-11)

Last night, Mason grinded out a tougher than expected win at home against Northeastern. The victory was their 14th in a row, and gave Mason the regular season CAA championship. A spot in the NCAA Tournament seems secure so this game doesn't really mean anything for Mason. However, the players seem to be as disgusted as me that they aren't ranked in either poll yet, so that should keep them motivated for this game against the Panthers. The Panthers are returning home for the first time in two weeks. and are on the heels of an 0-3 road trip. They like to slow the pace down and the only chance they have in this game is if they can hold Mason under 60 points. Their leading scorer, F Eric Buckner averages just 9.6 ppg. The Panthers can play suffocating defense and in their first game against Mason, they held the Patriots to just 24 first half points. However, Cam Long got hot in the second half of that game and Mason pulled away. I won't take anything for granted, especially with how much trouble Northeastern gave Mason, but Mason should win and finish a very impressive 16-2 in CAA play.

Prediction: George Mason 59, Georgia State 51

#1 Duke (26-2, 12-1) at Virginia Tech (18-8, 8-5)

The Hokies find themselves in their normal spot of being on the bubble, but have a huge opportunity to get off the bubble, hosting #1 Duke. Duke is #1 by attrition, as everyone in front of them lost last week. I don't think anyone really buys that Duke is the best team in the country. G Malcom Delaney has to have a big game for the Hokies to spring the upset. This game is in prime time and the crowd will be amped up, but I don't think it will be enough to give Virginia Tech the win.

Prediction: Duke 76, Virginia Tech 72

#2 Kansas (26-2, 11-2) at Oklahoma (12-15, 4-9)

Is Jeff Capel on the hot seat in Norman? I know basketball is secondary at Oklahoma but the Sooners have really regressed since Blake Griffin left. This is the Jayhawks last easy game of the season, as they close with Texas A&M and Missouri, then its tournament time.

Prediction: Kansas 78, Oklahoma 66

#7 BYU (26-2, 12-1) at #4 San Diego State (27-1, 12-1)

These two are moving up in the world, as instead of being relegated to CBS College Sports, they get the real CBS treatment. The Aztecs only loss came at BYU about a month ago, but I still don't think they are that legit. I don't think either of these teams is worthy of #1 seed consideration. It's one thing to beat up on Colorado State all year, it will be a whole other world for these two come NCAA Tournament time. These teams are pretty evenly matched, so advantage home team.

Prediction: San Diego State 70, BYU 66

#5 Texas (24-4, 12-1) at Colorado (17-11, 6-7)

The Buffaloes are desperate for a win to try to hang on to the bubble. I was really surprised by the Longhorns loss at Nebraska, when they had a chance to become #1 in the country. I can't see them getting knocked off on the road by unranked teams on back to back Saturday's.

Prediction: Texas 82, Colorado 75

Seton Hall (11-16, 5-10) at #9 Notre Dame (22-5, 11-4)

Notre Dame nearly dropped their second game in a row to Providence but were able to scrape together a win, despite allowing the Friars Marshon Brooks to score 52 points. They may find a challenge from the Pirates but Psycho T's little brother Ben should answer the bell.

Prediction: Notre Dame 77, Seton Hall 66

#10 Arizona (23-5, 12-3) at UCLA (20-8, 11-4)

A Pac-10 team finally clawed their way into the Top 10, and then the Wildcats promptly lost at USC. The Bruins have been on a roll, winning 11 of their last 13 games. The Bruins have a balanced offensive attack, while the Wildcats rely on NBA prospect Derrick Williams' 19.3 ppg. I don't think the Wildcats are as good as their record indicates, and certainly not good enough to win at Pauly Pavillion against a good UCLA team.

Prediction: UCLA 73, Arizona 70

Sunday

Indiana (12-16, 3-12) at #3 Ohio State (26-2, 13-2)

Maybe I am a curse for the Buckeyes. I picked them 2 weeks in a row to win tough road games and each time they lost. They should prove me right at home against what seems to be a perpetually rebuilding Hoosiers team.

Prediction: Ohio State 80, Indiana 63

#6 Pittsburgh (25-3, 13-2) at #16 Louisville (21-7, 10-5)

Tough road test for the Panthers. The Cardinals have been perfect at home in Big East play, and just held sorry Rutgers to 37 points. This is a really tough game to call, and when I get scared about making an upset pick I usually don't.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 77, Louisville 75

#8 Purdue (23-5, 12-3) at Michigan State (16-11, 8-7)

Why does a 16-11 record, and an 8-7 Big Ten record have all the pundits saying Michigan State is good enough to make the NCAA Tournament? The only good win they have is an overtime win against Wisconsin. If they beat Purdue then maybe they have an argument. Problem is, I don't think they will be able to stop the scoring machine that is JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore.

Prediction: Purdue 74, Michigan State 68

Last Week: 10-2
Overall: 19-4

The Alley - Oop

March is going to be so much more exciting this year than it was last year. Last year, Mason and UNC had no hopes of accomplishing anything but it is a completely different story this year. If Mason can beat Northern Iowa Saturday night, unless the coaches and writers are complete morons, then Mason will be ranked in the Top 25 in both polls. North Carolina just keeps on winning, and every game left in their season is winnable, including when they get their rematch with Duke at home. These are exciting times to be a Tar Heels and Patriots fan. Also, college basketball is wide open this year, with no one team standing out amongst the rest. Undefeated Ohio State fell to Wisconsin last weekend, and then new number one Kansas was destroyed by Kansas State. The winner of the bracket pool this year will probably be that girl that picks her favorite teams based on which places she has visited. It is just that type of season.

Saturday

Boston College (16-9, 6-5) at #19 North Carolina (19-6, 9-2)

These teams met a few weeks ago and the Tar Heels absolutely blew out Boston College at Chestnut Hill, 106-74. Harrison Barnes had his best game of the season, and Reggie Bullock came off the bench to torch the Eagles for 16 points. The Eagles are trying to play their way into the NCAA Tournament bubble and a win at North Carolina would be a huge boost. G Reggie Jackson is the Eagles best player and is coming off a 31-point performance in a win against Maryland last weekend. F Joe Trapani can score and rebound, and F Corey Raji is also a presence on the glass. However, other than that the Eagles are very weak on the boards, while Carolina is first in the nation in rebounding. That is a major reason the Heels blew out Boston College the first time. As long as Carolina is focused and ready to play, they should have no problems knocking off BC.

Prediction: North Carolina 81, Boston College 67

George Mason (22-5) at Northern Iowa (19-9)

It's Bracketbusters! With Mason on a school record 12 game winning streak, many people want to draw parallels between this year's team and the 2006 team that made a Final Four run. That 2006 team was propelled into the NCAA Tournament by beating Wichita State on the road in Bracketbusters. There won't be any similarities this season, as a win in this game really does nothing for Mason, while a loss could be potentially hurtful. I was hoping we would draw St. Mary's but the committee paired us with the Panthers, who have gone just 2-3 since the game was announced and seen their RPI dip into the 70s. Looking at the Panthers stats I am not even sure how they are 19-9, they aren't particularly good at anything. They only average 63 points per game, they are 332nd in the nation in rebounding, 324th in assists, and 202nd in field goal percentage. The only thing that will give them any chance in this game is the home court advantage. G Kwadzo Ahelegbe leads the team in scoring, averaging 13.9 ppg. Second on the team in scoring is their other G Anthony James. Mason is considered undersized but that won't be an issue against the Panthers, whose leading rebounder is just 6'6. If Mason can jump on the Panthers early, like they did against VCU, and knock the crowd out of the game this could be a laugher. Mason is so well balanced, dangerous both offensively and defensively. I think the Panthers can hang around for a bit, but Mason is just too good. Man that feels good to type.

Prediction: George Mason 75, Northern Iowa 64

Colorado (16-10, 5-6) at #1 Kansas (24-2, 9-2)

Kansas won't be #1 come Monday, after getting shellacked by Kansas State. This won't be an easy turnaround game either, as the Buffaloes have been giving teams in the Big 12 fits all season. Colorado has lost six of seven to fall out of NCAA Tournament discussion, but they haven't been blown out in those losses. They pushed Kansas hard in their first meeting, and I think they will give the Jayhawks some trouble in this one.

Prediction: Kansas 84, Colorado 76

#2 Texas (23-3, 11-0) at Nebraska (17-8, 5-6)

If Texas can win in Lincoln then they will be the new number one team in the nation. Since losing to Connecticut a month ago, Texas has steamrolled through the Big 12. Jordan Hamilton is a beast and should be in the conversation for Player of the Year.

Prediction: Texas 74, Nebraska 63

#4 Pittsburgh (24-2, 12-1) at St. John's (16-9, 8-5)

Very dangerous game for the Panthers as St. John's has made a living off of beating strong teams at home this year. They haven't just beaten them, they have blown them out. Sensational G Dwight Hardy has been the major reason why. I think the Johnnies pull off another upset.

Prediction: St. John's 71, Pittsburgh 67

#6 San Diego State (26-1, 11-1) at Air Force (13-11, 4-7)

Not much to say about this game, waiting for San Diego State to play someone.

Prediction: San Diego State 74, Air Force 64

#7 Notre Dame (21-4, 10-3) at West Virginia (16-9, 7-6)

The Mountaineers are squarely on the bubble and a win against Notre Dame might get them off of the bubble and into the Big Dance. The Mountaineers are a much better home team than road team, but the Irish have proven capable of winning in tough environments. Really tough game to call, but I will take a risk and call for the upset.

Prediction: West Virginia 71, Notre Dame 70

#8 BYU (24-2, 10-1) at TCU (10-17, 1-11)

TCU basketball is nothing like TCU football. Oh, and JIMMER!!!!!!

Prediction: BYU 87, TCU 71

#9 Georgetown (20-6, 9-5) at South Florida (8-19, 2-12)

The Hoyas winning streak came to an end at the hands of Kemba Walker on Wednesday, but a trip to South Florida should get them right back on track. Expect G Austin Freeman to have a big game.

Prediction: Georgetown 68, South Florida 54

Sunday

#3 Ohio State (25-1, 12-1) at #11 Purdue (21-5, 10-3)

Purdue just knocked off Wisconsin, who last weekend knocked off Ohio State. The Buckeyes blasted the Boilermakers when they met in Columbus, but things should be much closer in West Lafayette. JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore do just about everything for Purdue. If those two are both on then the Buckeyes may be looking at another loss. I was one of the few to pick the Buckeyes at Madison last week and they burned me, but I will take a chance and pick them again.

Prediction: Ohio State 69, Purdue 66

Georgia Tech (11-14, 3-8) at #5 Duke (24-2, 11-1)

Yellow Jackets coach Paul Hewitt has to be done after this season, right? I mean how many poor seasons can a trip to a national title game where you got stomped buy you? The better question is, how the hell did North Carolina get killed by this team?

Prediction: Duke 84, Georgia Tech 66

Penn State (14-11, 7-7) at #10 Wisconsin (19-6, 9-4)

The Badgers couldn't keep their momentum going from their win against Ohio State, suffering a tough road loss to Purdue. Penn State is no push over, and already beat Wisconsin once this season. Feels like G Talor Battle has been there forever, and I still have nightmares of him hitting a three at the buzzer to send their NIT game against Mason to overtime. I think Badgers G Jordan Taylor, who carried the Badgers from behind against Ohio State, will be the difference.

Prediction: Wisconsin 67, Penn State 58

Last Week: 9-2
Overall: 9-2