The Hail Mary - Week 10

Sunday, November 15

New Orleans (4-5) at Washington (3-5), New Orleans favored by 1

Just when it looked like the Saints were building some momentum and might be players in the NFC playoff race, they lose at home to Tennessee. No one has any idea what we will see from the Saints week to week except we know that their Rob Ryan led defense will give up a ton of points and look like dog excrement. As expected the Redskins had no chance in New England, thought it was not the fault of Kirk Cousins. Cousins made some pretty good throws but his receivers, tight ends, running backs, hell even random people on the sidelines all seemed to have a case of butterfingers. If the Redskins want to keep alive their hopes or what some would call a pipe dream alive of winning the NFC East, they have to win this game. The Saints passing defense gives up over 300 yards a game, and their rushing defense over 100, so maybe Alfred Morris or Matt Jones will finally have a good game for all four quarters. The Redskins defense struggles against the run as well so it could be a big day for Mark Ingram. I expect a lot of points and fireworks in this game, and ultimately for the Redskins to pull out the win at home, where they have played well so far this year.

Prediction: Washington 37, New Orleans 33

Miami (3-5) at Philadelphia (4-4), Philadelphia favored by 6 1/2

All those good vibes the Dolphins had after Dan Campbell was named interim coach have disappeared after two blowout road losses within the division. Miami is in must win mode now if they want to keep alive any playoff hopes for what was supposed to be a breakthrough season. The Eagles got a huge win at Dallas last week, and if the Giants fall to the Patriots as expected, the Eagles could be alone in first place in the NFC East with a win in this game. The Eagles defense suffered a blow when rookie LB Jordan Hicks tore his pec against Dallas and was placed on injured reserve. The defense has surprisingly been the consistent part of the Eagles, its the offense that is up and down each quarter. However, recently DeMarco Murray seems to be getting going, so maybe the Eagles are peaking at the right time. Playing the toothless Dolphins should help Philly continue to feel good about themselves.

Prediction: Philadelphia 30, Miami 20

Detroit (1-7) at Green Bay (6-2), Green Bay favored by 11 1/2

The Packers desperately need a get right game after losing back to back road games to Denver and Carolina. The offense finally got going in the second half against Carolina, but it was the defense that was falling apart. Cameras caught Julius Peppers, B.J. Raiji and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix getting into it on the sidelines. The schedule worked out though because the Packers get to host the sorry Lions on Sunday. It will continue to get trotted out each year until the Lions finally break the hex, but here it is again. Detroit has not won at Lambeau Field since 1991, and to put that in perspective that was when my old, tired, 32-year old body was just a young, vibrant 8-years old. Matt Stafford had a week off and maybe he spent some of that time working with new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter since apparently he didn't really like the old coordinator Joe Lombardi. He most likely didn't but I just wanted an excuse to type Jim Bob Cooter, the greatest name in the history of the world. The Packers offense always plays well at home, especially Aaron Rodgers, so after a tough couple of weeks, I expect a much jovial group of Packers on Sunday.

Prediction: Green Bay 42, Detroit 21

Dallas (2-6) at Tampa Bay (3-5), Tampa Bay favored by 1

Time is running out on the Cowboys who are without Tony Romo for they hope the last this week Sunday. If they can pull off this victory then they would still have realistic hopes in the NFC East and Romo back to possibly lead a great revival. Tampa Bay is showing all the signs of a young, growing team. Up and down from week to week, usually competitive, usually not able to close out games. I think this is the one game that the Cowboys will get without Romo. Matt Cassel played well last week, aside from one really bad pick six. I think that game helped his confidence and will lead to more good things from the offense, including Darren McFadden on Sunday.

Prediction: Dallas 26, Tampa Bay 20

Carolina (8-0) at Tennessee (2-6), Carolina favored by 5

Damn, these Panthers are for real, aren't they? Cam Newton had quite the day against Green Bay. He started it by stealing Packers banners, then had Julius Peppers try to stop him from giving a touchdown ball to a child, had an awesome performance against that Packers defense, and closed it out with the Panthers 12th consecutive regular season win. The Titans showed that maybe the perpetual loser Ken Whisenhunt was what was holding them back, as they impressively won at the Superdome. Now, they will be looking for their first home win of the season. This will be a fun quarterback battle between Newton and the increasingly impressive Titans rookie Marcus Mariota. But I am starting to learn my lesson, don't pick against these Panthers, they are the real deal.

Prediction: Carolina 27, Tennessee 17

Chicago (3-5) at St. Louis (4-4), St. Louis favored by 7

The Bears and especially Jay Cutler showed a lot of guts on Monday night, coming from behind on the road to beat the Chargers. The win kept the Bears alive in the playoff conversation and with them playing the Rams this weekend, they could be in the picture even more if they can pull off another upset.  The Rams made news for a dirty hit on Teddy Bridgewater and more news when they signed Wes Welker. Welker barely contributed to Denver last year but the Rams and their anemic passing offense will look to almost anyone to try to produce. People are very concerned that Welker will suffer another concussion but its his and his family's decision, so if he wants to play, I won't be losing any sleep over it. As for this game, these teams are pretty even stat wise but the Rams defense seems to take it another level when they play at home, having not allowed a touchdown at home in their past two games. I expect to see Cutler on his butt a lot and looking very frustrated and in the perfect pose for a cigarette to be photoshopped into a picture of him.

Prediction: St. Louis 23, Chicago 13

Cleveland (2-7) at Pittsburgh (5-4), Pittsburgh favored by 5

Injuries have been killing the Steelers this season and once again Ben Roethlisberger will miss time with an injury. He should not be out as long this time as he was when he first was injured and instead of Mike Vick replacing him, it will be Landry Jones this time. Ben should only miss this game, as the Steelers have a bye next week, before going to Seattle on November 29th. Cleveland is hoping that Josh McCown can return, as Johnny Manziel only does anything well in spurts, including staying sober, hi yoooooooooooo! It is another lost season for the Browns and you have to wonder if another complete overhaul will be in order again after this season.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 17

Jacksonville (2-6) at Baltimore (2-6), Baltimore favored by 5 1/2

The Ravens were doing a lot of talking this week that they believe they can still make the playoffs, just being just 2-6. One positive is that their first half schedule was front loaded with five road games, so five of their last eight will now be at home. Their next four games are certainly winnable so maybe there is something to the confidence the Ravens are projecting. The Jaguars are also 2-6 but are just a game and half back in the AFC South. With the Colts now being without Andrew Luck for 2-6 weeks, you know the perpetually positive Jags coach Gus Bradley will be telling his guys that they still have plenty to play for. Jacksonville has followed a familiar script this season of being competitive but usually not being able to close out games. I think that script will have a sequel this Sunday in Baltimore.

Prediction: Baltimore 34, Jacksonville 27

Minnesota (6-2) at Oakland (4-4), Oakland favored by 3

This will be a fun game between two rising teams. The Vikings are now tied for first in the NFC North and currently winners of four straight games. The Raiders are coming off a heartbreaking loss at Pittsburgh, but appear set for a long time at quarterback with Derek Carr, who has 19 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions this season. Both teams also feature dynamic rookie receivers in the Vikings Stefon Diggs and the Raiders Amari Cooper. Teddy Bridgewater left the win against St. Louis with a concussion but has passed all the necessary tests and will start on Sunday. The Raiders biggest problem this season is their defense, and especially their secondary which gives up a whopping 325 yards passing per game. The problem for Minnesota is that while Bridgewater is improving, he isn't likely to kill anyone through the air right now. But on the other side, the Vikings pass defense is awesome, so it will be intriguing to see how Carr fares against them. I am a Derek Carr believer and I think the Raiders will have the edge in the Black Hole.

Prediction: Oakland 28, Minnesota 23

New England (8-0) at New York Giants (5-4), New England favored by 7

Another chance for the Giants to try to spoil an undefeated Patriots season. New England received some bad news this week as probable Comeback Player of the Year Dion Lewis was lost for the season with an ACL tear. However, much like Lewis emerged out of nowhere, I am sure Bill Belichick will have James White or Brandon Bolden come in and take right over, and the Patriots won't miss a beat. I also expect Belichick to help come up with a defensive scheme that will make Odell Beckham Jr. largely disappear on Sunday. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski have to be licking their chops to face a Giants defense that gives up 429 yards per game, with 315 of those coming through the air. This game will turn into a shootout and the Giants and Eli Manning won't be able to keep up.

Prediction: New England 40, New York Giants 27

Kansas City (3-5) at Denver (7-1), Denver favored by 6

The Broncos suffered a disappointing defeat at Indianapolis and also saw Aqib Talib poke someone in the eye, which will cause him to miss this game with a one game suspension. The good news is they are playing Alex Smith who usually only throws it as far as the linebackers. The Chiefs have had a week of rest and two weeks to prepare for this game, which their defense needed as they have been pretty awful this season. That being said, Peyton Manning has been mediocre to bad against just about everyone and there is no reason to expect that to change this week. After an off week last week though, I expect the Broncos defense to up their game back to a high level, and carry Denver to another win.

Prediction: Denver 24, Kansas City 16

Arizona (6-2) at Seattle (4-4), Seattle favored by 3

A lot of teams are intimidated by the Seahawks 12th man but one team that should not be is the Cardinals. Arizona went to Seattle two years ago and knocked off the Seahawks when they weren't on Seattle's level. Now they are the better team but are still underdogs. Seattle's schedule is back loaded with home games and they are confident they will make a second half surge like they did last season. Carson Palmer has had his struggles against Seattle, so it is imperative that he and the offense get off to a quick start and limit the impact the Seattle crowd will have on the game. The Cardinals defense has been opportunistic all season, and Russell Wilson's offensive line has struggled to protect him. I believe that combination will lead to Wilson putting the ball on the ground, and putting the Seahawks defense in a situation where they will have to defend a short field. The Cardinals have been stout against the run so I also think they can limit Marshawn Lynch's impact on this game. I am going with the upset that is not really an upset, as the Cardinals show the world they are a Super Bowl contender.

Prediction: Arizona 22, Seattle 17


Monday, November 16

Houston (3-5) at Cincinnati (8-0), Cincinnati favored by 10

The Texans had to have some good feelings inside after hearing about Luck's injury as it makes them viable players in the AFC South going forward. Brian Hoyer has been quietly outstanding this season, throwing 13 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. The Texans defense has seemed terrible this season, but interestingly enough they are allowing just 2 yards more per game than the Bengals defense is. Despite that stat, Houston is giving up 8 more points per game the Cincinnati, showing that the Bengals will bend, but not often break. Andy Dalton has continued his strong play and is likely giving Bengals fans some hope this this will finally be the postseason that he doesn't bomb out. The Texans have been blown out twice on the road this season but I expect a much more respectable effort from them in this game with two weeks of rest. While the effort will be respectable, it will not be a winning one. Too much pressure will be on Hoyer to do well now that Arian Foster is out for the season. The Texans had no rushing attack when Foster missed time earlier this year, so excuse me for not jumping on the Alfred Blue bandwagon.

Prediction: Cincinnati 35, Houston 24

Last Week Straight Up: 8-5
Overall Straight Up: 87-45

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-6
Overall Against the Spread: 63-65-4 

The Hail Mary - Week 9

Sunday, November 8

Washington (3-4) at New England (7-0), New England favored by 14

The Redskins have had two weeks to bask in the glory of their come from behind win against Tampa Bay. That has meant two weeks for Redskins fans to continue to try to convince themselves that Kirk Cousins is good and more than just a placeholder for this season. Kirk Cousins is capable of having good games, he also is capable of having very bad games. He lives up to the definition of mediocre and if Redskins fans feel that putting up good stats against a middling Tampa Bay team makes him a franchise quarterback, then I can't convince you otherwise. I feel pretty confident in saying that against the Patriots on Sunday Cousins will throw multiple interceptions. The Patriots will get up big and then Kirk might put up some garbage time numbers and look halfway decent. The Redskins obviously have next to no chance in this game. They can't run the football so they won't be able to control possession and they can't rush the quarterback so Tom Brady is going to kill them. The Redskins just need to try to get out of this game with some dignity and prepare for a game they have a chance in when they play New Orleans next week.

Prediction: New England 38, Washington 20

Miami (3-4) at Buffalo (3-4), Buffalo favored by 3

The good vibes from the first two games of the Dan Campbell era quickly disappeared after the Dolphins were embarrassed on national television by the Patriots. The offense went back to looking toothless and the defense lost its best player, Cameron Wake for the season. With a week and a half to prepare and revenge on their minds, I am hopeful for a much stronger performance from the Dolphins this week. Last time they played Buffalo was at home and the Bills completely dominated the game. The Bills offense has been without Karlos Williams, Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins the past few weeks, but are hopeful to have all of them back for this game. Miami has always struggled winning at Buffalo and I am not confident about Ryan Tannehill's ability to win in a tough road environment. The Dolphins will have to get Lamar Miller rolling in order to have a chance in this game.

Prediction: Buffalo 24, Miami 17

St. Louis (4-3) at Minnesota (5-2), Minnesota favored by 2 1/2

The Vikings are just one game back of the Packers in the NFC North. The Packers have a challenging game at Carolina, so Minnesota could possibly be in a first place tie if they can knock off St. Louis on Sunday. The emergence of Stefon Diggs at wide receiver has helped to improve Teddy Bridgewater's play and given a whole new facet of the Vikings offense that defenses have to account for. The Minnesota offensive line will be challenged all game by the fearsome Rams defensive front. Both teams can be offensively challenged at times, so more than likely this will end up being a defensive struggle. I think the defenses will cancel each other out, and the passing games will take a backseat to the powerful running of Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley. Fans will be in for a treat watching those two running backs, arguably the two best in the game right now. I think the Vikings will win with a late Blair Walsh field goal and keep rolling.

Prediction: Minnesota 20, St. Louis 17

Green Bay (6-1) at Carolina (7-0), Green Bay favored by 2 1/2

The Packers laid a big, giant turd on national television last Sunday night in the battle of the unbeatens with the Broncos. Aaron Rodgers had the worst game of his career, being held under 100 yards passing, something I wasn't sure I even thought was possible. They better brush themselves off fast though, because it gets no easier as they travel to unbeaten Carolina. Carolina did everything they could to choke away a fourth quarter lead against Indianapolis, but they eventually prevailed in overtime. Honestly, the Packers have been scuffling on offense for the past month, the Broncos game just brought it to a shinier light. I've been accused by some of being too hard on the Panthers, and it is hard to hate on 7-0. I will likely be called a hater for my prediction that the Packers will be the team to end their undefeated run, and also that they will hang 30+ on them. I feel like we will see a Packers team with a ton of fire after their embarrassing performance. They have a defense that lives and dies off of turnovers and Cam Newton has been turnover prone at times this season. Then you have Carolina having to recover on a short week after a Monday night game, and I think it will be too much for them to overcome.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Carolina 27

Tennessee (1-6) at New Orleans (4-4), New Orleans favored by 8

A three game winning streak has the Saints right back in the thick of things for the playoffs in the NFC. For the Titans, they have lost six straight and fired coach Ken Whisenhunt this week, replacing him with interim coach Mike Mularkey. Some people thought it was unfair that Whisnehunt only got to coach for four games with new franchise QB Marcus Mariota playing but to those people I say look at Whisenhunt's 4-30 record in his last 34 games as coach. Some guys are just meant to be coordinators and Whisenhunt is one of those people. I don't think we will see an initial Dan Campbell like effect on the Titans with Mularkey. This is a deeply flawed team, and one not filled with a lot of talent. Last week, Drew Brees had seven touchdown passes against the Giants and it looked like the Saints offense of yesteryear as they piled up 52 points. The Titans pass defense has been strong this year, but they have struggled stopping the run, so it could be Mark Ingram's time to shine on Sunday.

Prediction: New Orleans 38, Tennessee 14

Jacksonville (2-5) at New York Jets (4-3), New York Jets favored by 2 1/2

The Jets will have Ryan Fitzpatrick starting this game, busted up thumb and all. It is a must win for New York as they can't lost their third straight and start to feel in free fall mode. For Jacksonville, they are just a half game out of first place in the putrid AFC South. Blake Borkles is having a very strong season and has kept one of my six fantasy teams afloat while Tony Romo nurses back to health. The Jets defense had a poor showing last week, so I expect better out of that unit in this game. With Fitzpatrick back, even if he is hurt, I expect their offense to be much more in sync and Brandon Marshall to be a big factor in why the Jets snap their two game losing skid.

Prediction: New York Jets 27, Jacksonville 21

Oakland (4-3) at Pittsburgh (4-4), Pittsburgh favored by 4

Are the Raiders for real? They pounded the Jets in Oakland last week and sure it helped that they got to face Geno Smith instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick (never though I would type something like that), but they were still facing a good Jets defense and Derek Carr torched them. Michael Crabtree has benefited from all the attention being paid to Amari Cooper and is having a strong season. Crabtree always showed that he was good enough to be a number two in San Francisco, but it was trying to live up to the weight of being a number one that doomed him. The Steelers savior Ben Roethlisberger returned last week, then threw three picks and played no better than Mike Vick or Landry Jones had played. The Steelers are hoping that his poor performance can be chalked up to rust and he will be in for better play against Oakland. They really need him now that Le'Veon Bell has been lost for the season. De'Angelo Williams stepped in nicely the first two weeks at least, so the Steelers have to feel some security that he will be able to keep the running game afloat the rest of the season. I think the Raiders are definitely on their way up, but I am not convinced they can go cross country and win a tough road game just yet.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 33, Oakland 23

Atlanta (6-2) at San Francisco (2-6), Atlanta favored by 7

The big news out of San Francisco this week was the benching of Colin Kaepernick in favor of Blaine Gabbert. It is hard to believe that the guy who was lighting up the league just a few years ago and made Aaron Rodgers his bitch on a regular basis is now considered worse than the awful Gabbert. The falls of Kaepernick and RGIII have been stunning to watch. It seems like the end of the road for Kap in San Francisco and with the Niners losing week after week they might have a shot at trying to draft a franchise quarterback come April. The Niners have been decimated by injuries at running back as Carlos Hyde may be shut down for the season with a stress fracture in his foot and Reggie Bush tore his ACL sneezing. Then the other move the 49ers made this week was trading Vernon Davis to Denver. You may have forgotten Davis was still in the league since he has done next to nothing the past two seasons. But more than likely, he will go to Denver and start thriving, pouring further salt in the 49ers wounds. Matt Ryan has been the definition of mediocre this season but even if he doesn't play well, I am sure Devonta Freeman will run all over the 49ers. Plus, Ryan just has to hit Julio Jones with one or two throws, as the 49ers secondary will no doubt be burned constantly by him. Hey, they may even make Roddy White relevant again for a week. Sigh.

Prediction: Atlanta 23, San Francisco 9

New York Giants (4-4) at Tampa Bay (3-4), New York Giants favored by 2 1/2

The big story for this game is the return of Jason Pierre-Paul for the Giants. For those that don't know Pierre-Paul mangled one of his hands in a fireworks accident on the 4th of July. Pictures recently came out of what his hand now looks like and it isn't pretty. But JPP insists it won't stop him from rushing and sacking the quarterback. It is not often that you score 49 points and still lose but that is what happened to New York last week against the Saints. Eli Manning has been crushing it this season, throwing 17 touchdowns and just 4 picks. If the Giants had a true running game they would probably be a good team instead of a mediocre one. Tampa Bay had a very nice win at Atlanta last week and showed great resolve a week after blowing a game they should have won against Washington. Jamies Winston has been showing improvement week after week and the Bucs have been far more competitive this season than I think anyone expected. If they want to legitimize their playoff chances, a win against New York would go a long way towards that. Unfortunately, I think Eli is going to pick apart their defense, like he did New Orleans and the Giants will creep back over .500.

Prediction: New York Giants 34, Tampa Bay 31

Denver (7-0) at Indianapolis (3-5), Denver favored by 4

Peyton Manning's return to Indianapolis a second time doesn't have near the luster it did the first time. The Manning these Colts fans will see is nothing like the Manning they watched for years and years. Peyton did play well against Green Bay last weekend, but still didn't throw any touchdowns. For the first time all season, the Broncos rushing game was on points with CJ Andreson going over 100 yards and Ronnie Hillman contributing as well. Earlier this week Denver traded for Vernon Davis, and are hopeful that a change of scenery can revive his career, as Virgil Green and Owen Daniels just weren't getting it done. The Colts made changes to the coaching staff this week, firing Andrew Luck's coordinator going back to his Stanford days, Pep Hamilton. Rumor has it if the Colts lose this game then Chuck Pagano could be next to go. It appears they are dealing with the same type of dysfunction that sunk the 49ers season last year. The Denver defense is not one you want to play if you are looking to get back on track, and I expect another long day at the office for Luck and the Colts on Sunday.

Prediction: Denver 28, Indianapolis 17

Philadelphia (3-4) at Dallas (2-5), Philadelphia favored by 2 1/2

Quite a bit has changed since Dallas defeated Philly in Week 2. The Eagles have gone 3-2 since then to creep back into the NFC Least race. It was that game where Tony Romo was injured and since his injury the Cowboys are 0-5. They are expecting Romo back in two weeks against Miami, but they need to at least scrape one victory while he is out to have any hopes of salvaging their season when he returns. This game will mark DeMarco Murray's return to Dallas and he will be hoping it goes much better than his first effort against the Cowboys this year. There has been talk that he should be supplanted in the starting lineup by Ryan Mathews, but Chip Kelly seems to prefer Mathews as more a change of pace kind of guy. The Cowboys defense has given up over 100 yards rushing in four of their past five games, so if Kelly is smart he will commit to the run. Sam Bradford and Matt Cassel will likely make plenty of mistakes, so each team will have ample opportunities to convert turnovers into points in this game. Dallas hasn't proven they can win without Romo and even with Dez Bryant back for a second straight game, it doesn't matter if he doesn't have a quarterback that can consistently get him the ball. I think Philly takes the win, splitting the season series and pushing Dallas closer to the brink of a lost season.  

Prediction: Philadelphia 26, Dallas 20


Monday, November 9

Chicago (2-5) at San Diego (2-6), San Diego favored by 4

A pretty lousy Monday Night game although seeing guh huh Philip Rivers and dope faced Jay Cutler play each other will bring back memories of their Broncos/Chargers tilts. Those two had a feud four years ago or so, but it seems to all be water under the bridge now. Both are fathers, I think Jay has one kid and Philip has his clan of 25 children. The Chargers lost Keenan Allen for the season, so it might be time for Stevie Johnson, Malcom Floyd and of course old dependable Antonio Gates to shine. It certainly won't be Melvin Gordon's time to shine because he is a bum.  The Bears have injuries of their own, as Matt Forte will miss this game and likely the next one with a knee injury. That means rookie Jeremy Langford should get the start and who knows, maybe he will teach Gordon a thing or two about being an effective rookie rusher.

Prediction: San Diego 29, Chicago 16

Last Week Straight Up: 9-5
Overall Straight Up: 79-40

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-7-1
Overall Against the Spread: 56-59-4

The Hail Mary - Week 7

Sunday, October 25

Buffalo (3-3) "at" Jacksonville (1-5) in London, England, Buffalo favored by 5

Prediction: Buffalo 27, Jacksonville 20

Tampa Bay (2-3) at Washington (2-4), Washington favored by 3

Prediction: Washington 24, Tampa Bay 17

Minnesota (3-2) at Detroit (1-5), Minnesota favored by 2 1/2

Prediction: Minnesota 31, Detroit 24

Houston (2-4) at Miami (2-3), Miami favored by 4 1/2

Prediction: Miami 30, Houston 27

Atlanta (5-1) at Tennessee (1-4), Atlanta favored by 4 1/2

Prediction: Atlanta 38, Tennessee 21

New Orleans (2-4) at Indianapolis (3-3), Indianapolis favored by 4 1/2

Prediction: Indianapolis 35, New Orleans 27

Pittsburgh (4-2) at Kansas City (1-5), no line

Prediction: Kansas City 18, Pittsburgh 15

Cleveland (2-4) at St. Louis (2-3), St. Louis favored by 5 1/2

Prediction: St. Louis 22, Cleveland 20

New York Jets (4-1) at New England (5-0), New England favored by 9

Prediction: New England 28, New York Jets 20

Oakland (2-3) at San Diego (2-4), San Diego favored by 4

Prediction: San Diego 33, Oakland 30

Dallas (2-3) at New York Giants (3-3), New York Giants favored by 3 1/2

Prediction: New York Giants 30, Dallas 21

Philadelphia (3-3) at Carolina (5-0), Carolina favored by 3

Prediction: Carolina 24, Philadelphia 16


Monday, October 26

Baltimore (1-5) at Arizona (4-2), Arizona favored by 7 1/2

Prediction: Arizona 34, Baltimore 21

Last Week Straight Up: 9-5
Overall Straight Up: 59-32

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-7-1
Overall Against the Spread: 43-45-3

The Hail Mary - Week 6

Sunday, October 18

Washington (2-3) at New York Jets (3-1), New York Jets favored by 6

The Redskins played their hearts out in Atlanta but it wasn't enough as Kirk Cousins threw a pick six in overtime. Receiver Ryan Grant slipped on the play and he took the bullet for the play but the throw was so off from where Grant was going to be, that to me it just looked like Careless Kirk rearing his ugly head. Now to be fair, Cousins did drive the Redskins down the field at the end of regulation to force overtime. No one is denying that Cousins has moments where he looks like a bonafide NFL starter. His problem has been he can't string enough of those moments together without having a major screw up in between them. The Jets are well rested for this game after having their bye week and their best position players, RB Chris Ivory and WR Brandon Marshall should be in line for strong games. The Redskins run defense had no answers for Devonta Freeman last week and Marshall's size will give the Skins corners trouble. Washington might get DeSean Jackson back this week but he would probably be covered by Darrelle Revis and thus be mostly a decoy. I think Cousins is going to struggle against the Jets secondary and try to force the issue, which means more interceptions. The Redskins will do enough to keep it close but once again come up short in the clutch.

Prediction: New York Jets 20, Washington 17

Kansas City (1-4) at Minnesota (2-2), Minnesota favored by 3 1/2

The Chiefs aren't going to win the AFC West I predicted and now without Jamaal Charles for the rest of the season, the question is when will they win another game. Charcandrick West will have to be the second coming in order for the Chiefs to not desperately miss Charles production. The Vikings have struggled in recent years coming off of a bye and while they are just .500 so far this season, their last game was a strong performance at Denver. Adrian Peterson has looked refreshed and as awesome as ever but Teddy Bridgewater hasn't taken the leap this year many expected of him. He seemed to develop a rapport with Mike Wallace last game, and hopefully they can carry that chemistry to this weekend against the Chiefs porous pass defense. How awful the Chiefs defense has been so far this year is one of the more surprising stories in the league. Big Red Andy Reid will have to try to drown his sorrows in a lot of barbecue after this game.

Prediction: Minnesota 28, Kansas City 17

Miami (1-3) at Tennessee (1-3), Tennessee favored by 2 1/2

I asked for the Dolphins to leave Joe Philbin in London and that is essentially what they did, firing Philbin another listless defeat. Interim coach Dan Campbell reminds me of Mike Singletary which isn't really a good thing. However, he seems to love old school football which should mean increased carries for Lamar Miller, which makes my fantasy football side very happy. QB Ryan Tannehill needs to get his play together and also his demeanor, as it is never a good look to berate practice squad guys for taking advantage of your sorry play. The Titans blew a game against Buffalo last week that they should have won. They were playing at home, and the Bills were down a lot of weapons on offense. You have to wonder how patient ownership will remain with Ken Whisenhunt, who is now 4-28 in his last 32 games as a coach. That is astoundingly bad. I think he will be 4-29 after Sunday as the new voice of Campbell will breathe some life into Miami.

Prediction: Miami 24, Tennessee 21

Arizona (4-1) at Pittsburgh (3-2), Arizona favored by 3

After taking a week off the Cardinals defense was back to its swarming, turnover causing selves in a blowout at Detroit. The offense was given good field position all game and Carson Palmer and David Johnson took advantage of it. The Steelers won their game on the last play of the game when they boldly went for a touchdown, instead of settling for a game tying field goal. Ben Roethlibserger is still likely about a week from returning, so Mike Vick is expected to make his third straight start. Vick was awful for three quarters at San Diego before turning things around just in time in the fourth quarter. If he is terrible on Sunday, then the Cardinals defense will eat him alive. He was helped out last week by Le'Veon Bell carrying the rushing load but for Pittsburgh to win this game Vick has to find a way to get Antonio Brown involved in the offense. No one is wishing for Roethlisberger to be back more than Brown, who has had just 8 catches and no touchdowns in his past two games. The Cardinals offense is just filled with weapons, even more so now that Andre Ellington is back and Chris Johnson seems to be undergoing the same career revival that Larry Fitzgerald is having. You can bet Cardinals coach Bruce Arians will be revved up for this game, as he was fired as the Steelers offensive coordinator a few years ago. With no Ben, I don't think the Steelers will be able to knock off the Cardinals.

Prediction: Arizona 34, Pittsburgh 24

Cincinnati (5-0) at Buffalo (3-2), Cincinnati favored by 3 1/2

Quite a stirring comeback from the Bengals, who overcame a 24-7 deficit to knock off the Seahawks in overtime. The Bills got an ugly win at Tennessee but it was a good win considering they were without Sammy Watkins, Karlos Williams, and LeSean McCoy. They may get Watkins and Williams back this week, but McCoy is likely out and now QB Tyrod Taylor is likely to miss the game. If Taylor can't go that would mean the return for at least one week, of E.J. Manuel to the starting position. To beat the Bengals you need to be at your best and be healthy and the Bills are likely to be neither on Sunday. They will need their defense to try to keep them in the game, but I don't think they will be able to do enough offensively to really give the Bengals a scare.

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Buffalo 17

Chicago (2-3) at Detroit (0-5), Detroit favored by 3

The Bears pulled out a gutsy win at Kansas City last week, while things might have hit rock bottom in Detroit as Matt Stafford was benched after throwing his third interception. Stafford will be back under center on Sunday as the Lions try to join the 31 other teams in the NFL that have victories. At this point Detroit is simply playing for pride. The Bears probably thought they were only playing for pride after starting the year 0-3 and trading away defensive starters. But since then they got healthy against the AFC West and a third straight win is certainly within reach. They are hopeful that Alshon Jeffrey will return for this game and see his first action since Week 1. It would help the Lions if RB Ameer Abdullah could curb his fumbling problem. At Nebraska, it was often overlooked because he would be running for so many yards, but he isn't doing that in Detroit so far. Calvin Johnson isn't the same player as injuries have caught up with him and so a year after an 11-5 season, things are back to looking bleak for Detroit. But for one Sunday at least, I think they will find some light, as they will knock off the Chicago Bears behind a fired up Stafford and earn their first win of the year.

Prediction: Detroit 24, Chicago 20

Denver (5-0) at Cleveland (2-3), Denver favored by 4

Peyton Manning has 6 TDs and 7 INTs this year and yet the Broncos are 5-0. Two or three years ago, hell, even last season, there is no way this could have ever been the case. But on the backs of a strong defense, Denver keeps winning games in spite of their offense. They can't find a running game and Manning seems like a shell of his former self. The Browns QB Josh McCown is having a throwback to his 2013 season with the Bears. He has been putting up video game like numbers recently and it could be reasonably argued that at this point in the season he is currently a better quarterback than Manning. If Manning is going to have a vintage Manning performance, then the Browns are the perfect team to do it against. The Browns defense is giving up 413 yards per game, and 263.6 yards passing per game. Maybe this is also finally the game where Ronnie Hillman or C.J. Anderson will do something. I was thinking about picking the Browns to pull the upset, but they're the Browns, and while they had a one week reprieve last week of Brownsing a game, order will restore itself on Sunday.

Prediction: Denver 22, Cleveland 20

Houston (1-4) at Jacksonville (1-4), Houston favored by 1

Another solid performance from Jaguars quarterback Bloof Bortles. If the Jaguars would actually win, then I think I would finally come around on Mr. Bortles. The Houston Texans are so sorry that they couldn't beat a Matt Hasselebeck led team at home, and also allowed Andre Johnson to come out of hiding and catch two touchdowns on them. To top it all off, Bill O'Brien once again made a switch at quarterback, going back to Brian Hoyer. Jacksonville has been coming oh so close in recent weeks, and even with Bortles dealing with a shoulder injury, I am confident in his ability to put up another strong game and given Jacksonville their second wind of the season.

Prediction: Jacksonville 35, Houston 31

Carolina (4-0) at Seattle (2-3), Seattle favored by 7

I have been accused of hating on the Panthers, but even I think this line from Vegas is ridiculous. Seattle is a botched call from the refs against the Lions away from being 1-4. It has to be troubling to the Seahawks that their vaunted defense couldn't hold on to a 17 point second half lead. A year or two ago and that type of lead would have meant game over. The Panthers have had two weeks to prepare for this game and Josh Norman is quickly making a name for himself as a premiere cornerback in the NFL. If he keeps this up he might become the new Richard Sherman and teams will avoid going to his side altogether. Panthers LB Luke Kuechly is out of the concussion protocol and should be back for this game. Now, while I do find the line too high, I still have respect for the power of Qwest Field and how hard it is for opponents. This should be a game highlighted by defensive performances more than offensive. It will be interesting to see how Cam Newton and Russell Wilson use their legs to evade pressure in this game and make plays. Whichever quarterback is more successful at that will lead their team to victory. In this case, I think the homefield will be the difference, although I think the Panthers are the better team.

Prediction: Seattle 20, Carolina 17

San Diego (2-3) at Green Bay (5-0), Green Bay favored by 10

After a brutal loss last Monday night the Chargers now have to travel to Lambeau and try to be competitive with the Packers. Aaron Rodgers showed he was human by actually throwing 2 interceptions at home last week against the Rams. The Packers still won comfortably, as their defense forced turnovers themselves. The Packers defense of recent years has seemed to have that bend but don't break philosophy. They will give up yards and points in bunches but create enough turnovers that it doesn't hurt the team. Philip Rivers has thrown three pick sixes this year and I think it is likely he throws another one in this game. Antonio Gates had 2 touchdowns last week in his return, which helps the passing game, but the Chargers still can't get Melvin Gordon or the run game going. Speaking of struggling rushing games, the Packers are waiting on Eddie Lacy to have his first impactful game of the season. The Chargers don't have a good rush defense, so maybe this is the week.

Prediction: Green Bay 38, San Diego 21

Baltimore (1-4) at San Francisco (1-4), Baltimore favored by 2 1/2

A couple interesting storylines in this game between bad teams. John Harbaugh coaching against his brother's former team. John said that he doesn't harbor any resentment towards the 49ers on how things ended between them and his brother, but surely he was just being diplomatic. Former Ravens wideout Torrey Smith plays his former team, and based on his lack of production so far this season, its hard to tell that he actually is a part of the 49ers now. The 49ers played their best game since the opener against the Giants last Sunday, but it wasn't enough as they lost in heartbreaking fashion. Colin Kaepernick and the offense at least looked competent again. The Ravens used to be unbeatable at home but then blew a lead to the Browns and it is becoming increasingly clear that the Ravens are not the team they used to be. Joe Flacco hopes to have Steve Smith Sr. back for this game, but even his group of unknown receivers will probably rack up big yards against the 49ers generous pass defense. The 49ers have played just two home games so far this year but in their first home game they actually looked like a good team and in their second one they surprisingly were somewhat competitive with Green Bay. With how the Ravens are floundering, I think this is a good spot for the fart whisperer Jim Tomsula to lead his team to their second win of the season.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, Baltimore 21

New England (4-0) at Indianapolis (3-2), New England favored by 8

Based on how the Patriots have dominated the Colts since the Andrew Luck era begin, including in last season's AFC Championship game, you think this would be a possible revenge game for the Colts. But you also would have been living under a rock the past 10 months, which might have been a good thing so you wouldn't have heard about this stupid DeflateGate story. The Patriots will be the ones looking for revenge after the Colts snitched on them and nearly got Tom Brady suspended for a quarter of the season. Their snitching did lead to a fine for the Patriots and a loss of draft picks. Tom Brady even admitted that he has an extra bit of motivation for this game because of the controversy. The Colts managed to win their past two games without Andrew Luck and as expected got healthy playing the AFC South for three straight weeks. However, it is back to real competition and even with Luck expected to return for this game, I expect nothing less than another Patriots blowout win. The Colts have never been able to stop the Patriots run game, so I would expect a gameplan centered around LaGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis. Frank Gore has started looking better the past few weeks and he will need to have a strong game for the Colts to have a chance. But even if he does rush pretty well, Luck has looked uneven all season, and the Patriots are not the team for him to get right against.

Prediction: New England 42, Indianapolis 24


Monday, October 19

New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia (2-3), Philadelphia favored by 4

The Eagles offense put 3 quarters of strong football together and routed the Saints last Sunday. DeMarco Murray finally got over 20 carries and scored his first rushing touchdown for Philly and now the Eagles could be tied for first place in the NFC East if they can beat the Giants. Murray could be in line for another big game if Philly commits to him as the Giants run defense is mediocre at best. New York has won three straight after an 0-2 start, mostly because QB Eli Manning is having one of the finest seasons of his career so far. It was pretty amazing watching him lead the winning drive against the Niners without Reuben Randle and Odell Beckham Jr. serving as only a decoy. The Eagles are favored in this game but I don't have a good feeling about this one. They haven't been able to sustain any forward momentum this season and Sam Bradford, while playing better recently is still throwing too many interceptions. With how well Eli is playing right now, I think the Giants make it clear after Monday night that they are the team to beat in the NFC Least.

Prediction: New York Giants 26, Philadelphia 21

Last Week Straight Up: 9-5
Overall Straight Up: 50-27

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-7-1
Overall Against the Spread: 37-38-2

The Hail Mary - Week 5

Sunday, October 11

Washington (2-2) at Atlanta (4-0), Atlanta favored by 7 1/2

This is like a reunion game as former Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and former Redskins receiver Leonard Hankerson now are with the Falcons. So far both of them are thriving. The Falcons offense has been on fire and is a large reason Atlanta is 4-0. Hankerson has surpassed Roddy White as Matt Ryan's number two target, something White is understandably not too pleased about. So far White's objections to his reduced role in the offense haven't been a distraction but it is definitely something to watch as the season goes on. The Redskins are coming off a strong team win against Philadelphia. They got a lead early and predictably lost that lead. But what was different this time was they were able to mount a game winning drive and get the win. Kirk Cousins and Pierre Garcon were excellent on that final drive. Cousins played well last week but we know he can play well at times. He has not yet been able to play well consistently and over consecutive games. The Falcons don't have a very good defense, so Cousins will have every opportunity to play well again this weekend. He would be helped by the return of DeSean Jackson, who has been saying it is his possible he could play, but I don't think that is something Washington can count on. I expect Ryan to make some big plays against the Skins hurting secondary, especially Julio Jones. I also think Hank will be hankerin' (see what I did there) to get some revenge against his former team and will make an impact as well. Then you can't forget about Falcons RB Devonta Freeman who has three rushing touchdowns in each of his last two games. The Falcons just have so many weapons offensively, I don't think Washington will be able to keep up.

Prediction: Atlanta 34, Washington 27

New Orleans (1-3) at Philadelphia (1-3), Philadelphia favored by 5

Maybe this will finally be the week the Eagles offense puts it all together for an entire game. They will have a great shot against a Saints defense that made even Brandon Weeden look competent last Sunday night. Fortunately, for the Saints, Drew Brees had a throwback type of performance and helped carry New Orleans to their first win of the season. This will be a desperation game, as the loser will sit at 1-4 and have a huge hole to try to climb out of to get in the playoff picture. Each offense has weapons galore but where the Eagles have the advantage is defensively. Their secondary isn't very good but their defensive front has been excellent at stopping the run this season. This game will come down to which offense shoots itself in the foot less, specifically by turning the ball over. The Eagles better start off well or it will feel like a road game for them because the boss will be raining down. Sam Bradford threw three touchdown passes last week and I think he can do something similar against a leaky Saints secondary.

Prediction: Philadelphia 28, New Orleans 24

Chicago (1-3) at Kansas City (1-3), Kansas City favored by 9 1/2

Somewhat surprisingly the Bears got Jay Cutler back last week and he played well enough to help lead Chicago to their first win of the year. The Chiefs are desperate for a win as they are currently on a three game losing streak. They were manhandled by the Bengals last week and the offense could only manage seven field goals. Chicago's defense actually stepped up and played well against a hot Oakland offense, which was surprising because they had spent the week leading up to the game having a fire sale of their big name defensive players. The Chiefs are typically a pretty good home team and play three of their next four games at Arrowhead. This will be a crucial four game stretch for them to salvage their season. Their defense has struggled but I think they can cause bad Jay Cutler to show up and force Cutler into some interceptions and mistakes that will be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Kansas City 31, Chicago 17

Seattle (2-2) at Cincinnati (4-0), Cincinnati favored by 3

The argument could be made that right now the Bengals are the best team in football. They get to test themselves against the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks. After an 0-2 start Seattle has climbed back to 2-2 but last week's win against Detroit was aided by a horrible officiating gaffe. Despite it being painfully obvious that K.J. Wright had illegally batted the ball out of the end zone to cause a touchback, it went uncalled. I mean he literally swung at it like it was baseball and he had a bat, how do you miss that when you are staring right at it? The Seahawks have had a hell of a time protecting Russell Wilson and I expect the Bengals fearsome front line to have a field day pressuring Wilson. Marshawn Lynch missed last week's game and is questionable, but he can't return soon enough for the Seahawks offense. This game will also serve as a good test for Andy Dalton. Dalton is off to a highly impressive start to the season, and if he can put up solid numbers against the Seahawks, it might be time to admit that Dalton has made a leap as a quarterback.

Prediction: Cincinnati 21, Seattle 17

Jacksonville (1-3) at Tampa Bay (1-3), Tampa Bay favored by 3

Bloof Bortles has played well enough that I now have given him back his last name. The results aren't there yet for the Jaguars but you can't blame Bortles. Based on how poorly Jameis Winston has played at times this year maybe I should change his name too. He has given pundits like me plenty of material for a nickname with his personal life hijinx. Looking ahead, this will be the Buccaneers best chance at a win for a long time and if they are smart they will focus on feeding the ball to Doug Martin and Charles Sims and ride them to victory.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 15, Jacksonville 13

Cleveland (1-3) at Baltimore (1-3), Baltimore favored by 6 1/2

Baltimore saved their season last Thursday against Pittsburgh thanks to Josh Scobee forgetting how to hit field goals. Despite what Snoop Dog had to say Scobee was actually very good in Jacksonville, but he wasn't able to transfer that success to Pittsburgh. But getting back to Ravens/Browns, now Baltimore will try to win another divisional game and this time they will have to do it without Steve Smith Sr. who has a very hurt back. The biggest positive for the Ravens coming out of the Steelers game was Justin Forsett finally showing up for the offense. The Ravens have the most nondescript group of receivers in the league so it is imperative for their offense that the line gives Forsett the lanes he needs to run the ball effectively. The Browns fought valiantly in San Diego and then lost like only the Browns, and maybe the Lions can. San Diego missed a game winning field goal but the Browns were offside and the Chargers hit the do over field goal to win the game. Mike Pettine wants you to know that Joe Haden is not a pussy and he will play if he feels up to it on Sunday. A broken down Haden should be able to cover guys like Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown and newly acquired Chris Givens. Still, they're the Browns so they will find some way to screw up and lose this game.

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Cleveland 21

St. Louis (2-2) at Green Bay (4-0), Green Bay favored by 9

Just when I thought I had the Rams figured out as pretenders they go and beat Arizona on the road. Now with that being said in this column last week I did question just how good Arizona was and it looks like I might have been right. The Rams, specifically their defense, faces the hardest test in football right now this week when they travel to Lambeau Field. Get Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense on the road and they look mortal. But face them at Lambeau, and Rodgers is as close to perfection and unstoppable as you can get. If the Rams defense can somewhat contain the Packers, they might have a chance.The Rams offense showed a pulse last week as Todd Gurley emerged on the scene in the second half, helping St. Louis hold on to the win. Nick Foles has also been pretty good thus far, and the Rams seem to be finding new ways to keep Tavon Austin involved. Austin has always shown flashes but never been consistent. I think the Rams will give a decent accounting of themselves but no one is beating Rodgers at Lambeau right now.

Prediction: Green Bay 35, St. Louis 20

Buffalo (2-2) at Tennessee (1-2), Buffalo favored by 2 1/2

I think myself and the majority of people underestimated how much the Bills offense would miss Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy. They could do next to nothing on offense against a Giants defense that is decent, but nothing special. McCoy is definitely out for this game and Watkins is doubtful. Then you have McCoy's backup Karlos Williams, who suffered a concussion last week and he is questionable for the game Sunday. That would leave Boobie Dixon as the starter and Tyrod Taylor in a whole heap of trouble. The Titans are coming off their bye week and we will see if the week off taught them anything about finishing games. They had the Colts dead to rights a few weeks ago and let them off the hook. If they have been paying attention they will try to entice the Bills, specifically their defense, into silly penalties. Rex Ryan is okay with penalties though as long as his team cares or some such nonsense. With so many injuries on offense, I think the Bills will be tough pressed to go on the road and win this one, even against an inexperienced quarterback like Marcus Mariota.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Buffalo 22

Arizona (3-1) at Detroit (0-4), Arizona favored by 2 1/2

The media might have to pump the brakes on anointing the Cardinals as the Super Bowl champs after their loss to the Rams last week. I have a feeling some of the Cardinals players were starting to buy into their own hype. After being served some humble pie last week, I expect a more focused Cardinals team when they face the beaten down Lions in Detroit. Detroit dropped to 0-4. their season already over in early October. Now their focus is on just getting a win at some point. They were hosed by the referees last Monday despite a respectable performance at Seattle. If they had a better, more inspiring coach than sleepy Jim Caldwell I might believe the Lions could turn things around. Their offense is non-existent and it looks like the Lions might be lucky to win 4 or 5 games this year.

Prediction: Arizona 27, Detroit 17

New England (3-0) at Dallas (2-2), New England favored by 8 1/2

This game would be more fun if it were Tom Brady going up against Tony Romo. The Cowboys are just a few weeks from getting Dez Bryant back, but how effective will he be with Brandon Weeden throwing him the ball? Weeden hasn't been terrible in his two starts, but it is hard to believe that they wouldn't have won at least one of their past two games if Romo were still under center. The Patriots offense has been blowing by teams the first three weeks and already has some bored media types asking if they could go 16-0 this year. That won't be happening, but facing a mediocre at best Cowboys defense should lead to plenty of production from Brady, Rob Gronkowski and even up and coming running back Dion Lewis. The Cowboys will have Greg Hardy making his season debut after a 4 game suspension and also Rolando McClain returning from a suspension of his own. They will make a difference as the season goes on but they will be rusty Sunday and I don't expect them to be much of a factor.

Prediction: New England 38, Dallas 24

Denver (4-0) at Oakland (2-2), Denver favored by 4 1/2

This game should tell us a lot about how the Raiders are progressing as they try to turn themselves from constant laughingstock to contenders. Their quest hit a road bump last week when they lost to the winless Bears. QB Derek Carr showed the inconsistency that comes with a second year quarterback, as after two strong games, he and the rest of the offense couldn't get much going against a poor Bears defense. The Broncos offense was back to struggling last week, although Ronnie Hillman is making it clearer by the week that he should be starting over C.J. Anderson at running back. Peyton Manning has had his way against the Raiders over the last few years, but I think the Raiders defense will cause Manning to struggle again, and it will be up to Hillman to keep his running going, allowing Denver to escape with a win.

Prediction: Denver 23, Oakland 20

San Francisco (1-3) at New York Giants (2-2), New York Giants favored by 7

So the 49ers get a chance to show a national television audience just how terrible they are. NBC probably wishes this game was scheduled for later in the season so they could flex out of it. Colin Kaepernick should be thankful that Blaine Gabbert is his backup or else he might have been replaced by now. Somehow, Gabbert is probably far worse than Kap. The 49ers offense has put up 10 total points in their past two games. They can't throw or run the ball. Last week against the Packers, the one bright spot was the defense put in their first respectable performance since the opener against the Vikings. The Giants are on a two game winning streak and Eli Manning is off to a start that resembles how he plays in the playoffs when the Giants fluke their way to Super Bowls. The 49ers secondary will have their hands full with Odell Beckham Jr. and also need to keep their attention on the fast rising Reuben Randle. It would be nice if Carlos Hyde could get going running the ball again but it is next to impossible when a defense knows you have a quarterback who can't get the ball downfield. It is quite amazing the fall from grace Kap has had the past few seasons. I expect another long, frustrating three hours of Niner watching on Sunday night.

Prediction: New York Giants 23, San Francisco 10


Monday, October 12

Pittsburgh (2-2) at San Diego (2-2), San Diego favored by 3

The Steelers offense, specifically Le'Veon Bell showed flashes against Baltimore, but it is obvious that with Mike Vick under center the offense is far less potent. Antonio Brown disappeared for long stretches of the game, something that Steelers fans haven't seen in years. The defense continues to have trouble stopping the run, which may mean we finally see Melvin Gordon resemble the running back he was in college. Through four games, he has yet to score a touchdown or clear 100 yards rushing. Part of that is because Danny Woodhead is sharing touches with him, but Gordon seems to be running tentatively and not like the power back he was at Wisconsin. Philip Rivers can still sling it with the best of them but I think the run is the key to the Chargers winning this game and not the pass. I expect Vick to look a little more comfortable this week, but field goals probably will remain an adventure for Pittsburgh, even with a new kicker. This should be a close game and the Steelers inability to get points any time they have a chance will likely come back to haunt them.

Prediction: San Diego 29, Pittsburgh 23

Last Week Straight Up: 10-5
Overall Straight Up: 41-22

Last Week Against the Spread: 4-11
Overall Against the Spread: 31-31-1

The Hail Mary - Week 4

Sunday, October 4

New York Jets (2-1) "at" Miami (1-2) in London, England, New York Jets favored by 1 1/2

Can the Dolphins leave Joe Philbin behind in London? Dolphins owner Stephen Ross seems to be the only person who has any confidence that Philbin can lead the Dolphins to the playoffs. Unfortunately for Dolphins fans he is the one who makes the decision. The Dolphins had an embarrassing home opener against Buffalo last week. Both the offense and defense were abysmal. They desperately need a win this week so they can remain at their usual mediocre level and not start to fall out of the picture. They won't be winning the AFC East, so it is all about trying to get a Wild Card spot. They desperately need to find a way to get Lamar Miller going so that Ryan Tannehill isn't forced to throw the ball all game. The Jets feel good vibes evaporated pretty quickly last Sunday when fell behind Philadelphia at home 24-0. They eventually made a game of it, but it was still a terribly disappointing defeat. They saw bad Ryan Fitzpatrick in that game and Brandon Marshall made some really boneheaded plays. Marshall will be eager to put up some big numbers against one of his former teams this week. The Jets are hopeful that Eric Decker and Chris Ivory can return to the lineup as it was painfully obvious how much they missed the two of them in the loss. The London games are always weird, so I will pick a semi weird result, a Dolphins victory.

Prediction: Miami 21, New York Jets 17

Philadelphia (1-2) at Washington (1-2), Philadelphia favored by 3

All the good vibes surrounding the Redskins got to last four days before the team reminded their fans why they are such a beaten down group of people. Kirk Cousins was dreadful against the Giants, or back to his normal self. Of course, we all heard from the Cousins excuse makers how the interceptions weren't his fault. That ignores the fact that he had several balls that were underthrown that would have been touchdowns if a halfway decent quarterback had been throwing them. I am no believer in Robert Griffin III anymore, but no one is convincing me that Cousins is any better. The handoff from Alfred Morris to Matt Jones seemed to kick into high gear last week, although Jones continues to struggle holding on to the ball. The Eagles earned themselves a much needed victory last week, largely thanks to defense and special teams. The offense still seems to be in somewhat disarray and the Eagles are waiting to find out if they will be without DeMarco Murray for a second straight week. The Redskins are usually the type of team you get well against, so I am predicting that the Eagles offense has their best, most consistent showing of the season.

Prediction: Philadelphia 32, Washington 24

Jacksonville (1-2) at Indianapolis (1-2), Indianapolis favored by 9

The Colts tour of the AFC South, i.e. their season saver, continues this weekend at home against Jacksonville. The Colts had to scramble to come back to beat the Titans, so while they got the victory, things are still very uneasy in Indy. Andre Johnson apparently left his soul behind in Houston, as he didn't even register a target in the victory. Frank Gore finally made his presence felt with a couple of touchdowns and against a porous Jacksonville defense he should be able to continue his success. Any hopes that the Jags might be turning the corner after their win over the Dolphins died in Week 3. We found out the Dolphins are really bad, and Jacksonville lost to New England by about a gazillion points. Bloof Borkles played reasonably well though and if he keeps it up I might finally give him back his real name. He may play pretty well this weekend against a sorry Indy defense, but I expect Andrew Luck to have his best game of the year and Indianapolis to cruise.

Prediction: Indianapolis 38, Jacksonville 21

New York Giants (1-2) at Buffalo (2-1), Buffalo favored by 5

Tyrod Taylor was excellent against Miami, and the Bills were ferocious on defense and back to resembling the potential playoff contenders we saw in Week 1. The Giants saved their season by defeating the Redskins but they still don't have any answers at running back, just a trio of Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams and Shane Vereen. Vereen's role is at least clear, he is the pass catcher out of the backfield, but neither Williams or Jennings have been able to establish themselves. The early secret in Buffalo is that backup Karlos Williams is outplaying LeSean McCoy, who still seems far away from his 2013 form. The Bills shouldn't play favorites based on pay and if Williams keeps running like he has, he could eventually supplant McCoy. The Bills have no choice but to go with Williams as the lead back this week since McCoy will be out with an injury. With Eli going up against Rex Ryan's influenced Bills defense, I expect him to throw his first interception of the season and make a lot of Eli faces.

Prediction: Buffalo 27, New York Giants 17

Carolina (3-0) at Tampa Bay (1-2), Carolina favored by 3

The Panthers might be the most under the radar and underwhelming 3-0 team in league history. We should find out a lot more about just how legit the Panthers are in October and early November when they play at Seattle and then host the Eagles, Colts and Packers. The Bucs offense continues to struggle and playing at Carolina won't be helpful to Jameis Winston. I wish the Bucs would get Doug Martin going, only because I have him in one of my fantasy leagues. That's about all there is to say about this boring NFC South matchup.

Prediction: Carolina 23, Tampa Bay 12

Oakland (2-1) at Chicago (0-3), Oakland favored by 3

Are the Raiders for real? They have won two straight, although those wins came against teams that are a combined 1-5, while the actual good team they faced in Cincinnati destroyed them. But, they also lost Derek Carr early in that game and I am totally starting to believe that Carr is legit. He quietly had a pretty strong rookie season last year and has carried that over to this season. Amari Cooper is looking like a bonafide number one receiver for Carr and RB Latavius Murray burst onto the scene last week with 139 yards rushing. Forget winning, the Bears just hope to score some points on Sunday. Jimmy Clausen reminded anyone in case they forgot that he is a completely terrible NFL quarterback. The Bears had 10 possessions against Seattle last week and punted on all 10 of those possessions. The team started a fire sale on defense, trading Jared Allen to the Panthers and Jon Bostic to the Patriots. The Bears probably thought they reached rock bottom with their shutout last week, but being underdogs at home to the Raiders? That is truly rock bottom.

Prediction: Oakland 28, Chicago 20

Houston (1-2) at Atlanta (3-0), Atlanta favored by 6 1/2

The Texans got a much needed win against Tampa Bay and Ryan Mallett played well enough that it made me continue to wonder why Bill O'Brien ever named Brian Hoyer the starter. They also are hoping to be able to welcome Arian Foster back to the fold this weekend, which would give their running game a badly needed boost. The Falcons might have discovered the next big thing at running back with Devonta Freeman. Freeman shredded the Cowboys and if he can become a consistent weapon to go with Julio Jones in the passing game the Falcons will be even more dangerous offensively. They still have a ways to go defensively but with how well they are playing offensively and looking at their schedule, 9-0 could be a real possibility for Atlanta.

Prediction: Atlanta 29, Houston 23

Kansas City (1-2) at Cincinnati (3-0), Cincinnati favored by 3 1/2

My AFC West pick desperately needs a win but a week after having to play undefeated Green Bay on the road, now they have to face undefeated Cincinnati on the road. The loss to Green Bay was ugly but one bright spot was that Jeremy Maclin scored a touchdown. That finally put to an end the Chiefs embarrassing string of games without a touchdown by a recover that dated back to 2013. However, their defense, especially their secondary was victimized by Aaron Rodgers. I am not comparing Andy Dalton to Rodgers but with how well Dalton has been playing this season, it could be another tough day at the office for the Chiefs secondary. A.J. Green went off for the Bengals last week against Baltimore and almost was single-handily responsible for the victory. Next week the Bengals host the Seahawks, which could serve as a telling game as far as how serious a contender Cincy is. It is just hard to get excited for their regular season success because it has meant so little the last few seasons. I think Big Red, Andy Reid will coach the Chiefs up this week and they will perform much better than they did Monday, but Cincinnati will remain unbeaten.

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Kansas City 24

Cleveland (1-2) at San Diego (1-2), San Diego favored by 8

Injuries have hurt the Chargers early in the season and it started to show itself in their blowout loss at Minnesota last week. Now they return to the friendly confines of home and the even friendlier confines of playing the Cleveland Browns. The Chargers passing game has been strong this season but they really need to get Melvin Gordon and the rushing attack going. The Browns don't do anything well, they stink both offensively and defensively. I think this could be the game where Gordon makes his first real imprint on the NFL and the Chargers should roll to victory.

Prediction: San Diego 35, Cleveland 17

St. Louis (1-2) at Arizona (3-0), Arizona favored by 6 1/2

The Cardinals bandwagon is filling up after they destroyed yet another team last week. There is no denying that Arizona has been impressive, but so far the teams they have beaten have a combined record of 1-8. It should be another easy game on Sunday against the sorry Rams. The Rams still can no nothing offensively and continue to waste a strong defense. Todd Gurley made his season debut last week but after not playing football for a year, he has to deal with rust, as well as getting acclimated to the NFL, so the Rams can't count on any production from him for at least a few more weeks.

Prediction: Arizona 30, St. Louis 16

Green Bay (3-0) at San Francisco (1-2), Green Bay favored by 8 1/2

Colin Kaepernick's streak of owning Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will likely end in a big way on Sunday. It appears the 49ers are as bad as everyone thought they were. They can't cover anyone, can't stop the run, can't pass the ball, can't run the ball, the list goes on and on. Kaepernick was completely atrocious against the Cardinals, but hey, he says he get's to be himself now, so I guess that's cool. The Packers are looking like the best team in football. Their defense is still mediocre and a weird mix between getting pressure and causing turnovers but still allowing a lot of points. But it doesn't really matter because Aaron Rodgers is so damn good. I mean, he's turning James Jones into a Pro Bowler after the guy was cut by two teams this off-season. Eddie Lacy still hasn't really gotten on track, so if he can get some traction, look out NFL. I want to believe that the Niners will at least not embarrass themselves at home, but the fact is Green Bay is an excellent football team and the Niners are a very bad football team. I expect another ugly, long afternoon of watching them get dominated.

Prediction: Green Bay 42, San Francisco 21

Minnesota (2-1) at Denver (3-0), Denver favored by 7

The Broncos may be hitting their stride and it is all because of what appears to be a compromise between Peyton Manning and coach Gary Kubiak. Kubiak prefers his quarterback operate behind the center, while Manning prefers working out of the shotgun. The Broncos offensive line is a bit of a mess at the moment and in the first two games, while Manning was trying to do things Kubiak's way, he was struggling. So Kubiak put Manning in the Pistol against Detroit and Manning had his best game of the season. If the Denver offense can continue to improve the Broncos could be the best team in football because of how strong they are defensively. I think we will know a lot more about Minnesota after this game. Adrian Peterson has been carrying the offense the last two weeks and the play of Teddy Bridgewater is slightly concerning. He hasn't been making the leap I expected to see from him in year two. The Vikings last road game was a disaster, so it will be interesting to see if they can put some of their improved effort from the last two weeks into this game.

Prediction: Denver 23, Minnesota 17

Dallas (2-1) at New Orleans (0-3), Pick Em'

Brandon Weeden versus Luke McCown, on Sunday night! That is a possibility, and I am sure not what the NBC execs had in mind for this Sunday night game. Drew Brees is battling to try to play this week and if he does it would give the game some much needed star power. The Cowboys came flying out of the gates last week in their first game without Tony Romo, as Joseph Randle was running all over Atlanta. But as well as Dallas played in the first half of that game was as bad as they played in the second half, and they eventually lost. Their defense just doesn't appear to be good enough to make up for the pieces Dallas is missing on offense. The Saints have a lot of issues of their own and seem to suck no matter who is quarterbacking. McCown actually played pretty well against Carolina but the Saints defense couldn't get a stop late in the game when they needed it. No matter who is quarterbacking for New Orleans, I expect them to put up points and at some point in time the Saints have to win a game at home again.

Prediction: New Orleans 30, Dallas 24


Monday, October 5

Detroit (0-3) at Seattle (1-2), Seattle favored by 9

The NFL schedule makers should have known better than to give the Lions multiple prime time slots. I guess they felt good about Detroit sustaining their success off of last year's 11-5 season, but after Monday night the Lions will be one loss away from matching their loss total of last season. The decline of their offense that we have been watching the past few years has gotten worse. Matthew Stafford seems to have plateaued and Calvin Johnson hasn't looked like Megatron in a while, as injuries have seemed to have slowed him. Seattle essentially had a bye last week playing the hapless Bears. This week's game won't be as easy but the Lions have showed nothing this year to convince me they have a prayer of going out to Seattle and earning a victory. Russell Wilson and Jimmy Graham appeared to be finally getting on the same page last week, which is especially important since Marshawn Lynch is hurting right now and may not play Monday night.

Prediction: Seattle 27, Detroit 13

Last Week Straight Up: 13-3
Overall Straight Up: 31-17

Last Week Against the Spread: 10-6
Overall Against the Spread: 27-20-1

The Hail Mary - Week 3

Sunday, September 27

Philadelphia (0-2) vs. New York Jets (2-0), New York Jets favored by 2 1/2

After this past off-season when Chip Kelly put all his cards on the table and completely remade the Eagles in his vision, it was clear things would go one of two ways. He would either succeed and be labeled a genius, or he would fail and be labeled a moron and chastised for his hubris. Through two games, his tweaks to the Eagles roster, especially their offense, have been a complete and utter disaster. DeMarco Murray has 11 rushing yards on 21 carries. Shockingly, Sam Bradford hasn't torn his ACL yet but he still sucks. The Jets are a surprising 2-0 after dominating the Colts in Indianapolis on Monday Night Football. Their defense has been awesome through the first two games, especially Darrelle Revis. Revis was all over the place on Monday night, getting an interception and recovering a fumble at the goal line. Ryan Fitzpatrick has played within the offense and not tried to do much and the Jets resemble the Jets teams from Rex Ryan's first two years at the helm. They are winning with defense and doing just enough offensively. I think at some point the Eagles offense will click and start to produce but until I actually see it, I don't feel comfortable predicting it will happen. So because of that, I expect another long day at the office for the Eagles on Sunday.

Prediction: New York Jets 24, Philadelphia 13

San Diego (1-1) at Minnesota (1-1), Minnesota favored by 2 1/2




The resurrection of Adrian Peterson started last Sunday against Detroit. Peterson wasn't perfect, and struggled with fumbles, but he ran like a man possessed and showed why the Vikings refused to ever seriously enter into any trade talks about him. Peterson is back in the comfortable confines of home this Sunday, playing a Chargers run defense that has struggled badly through the first two games. Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings passing game still appears to be a work in progress, so it becomes even more important that Peterson continue to run the ball well. The Vikings pass defense will be tested by Philip Rivers, who is completing an absurd 81% of his passes through the first two games. If he can keep his play up to close to that level and Melvin Gordon continues to become more comfortable each week, the Chargers should have a pretty potent offense. They will need that because so far their defense has been subpar. I think these teams are evenly matched so I expect a close game throughout, but for Peterson to ultimately be the difference maker.

Prediction: Minnesota 28, San Diego 23

Atlanta (2-0) at Dallas (2-0), Atlanta favored by 1 1/2

Are the Cowboys the Notre Dame of the NFL? Two weeks ago they lost Dez Bryant for at least half the season, and then last week they saw Tony Romo get injured about force him out of action for at least two months. That means the Cowboys offense is now the Brandon Weeden show. Despite what Jerry Jones said this week making Weeden sound like the second coming, Dallas should be very worried that their starting quarterback is Weeden and their number one receiver is now Terrance Williams. The running game still has been somewhat stagnant, as Joseph Randle hasn't run anywhere near to the level that DeMarco Murray was running last year. Plus, now Jason Witten is hurting and he is questionable to play. Dallas was lucky last week that they were facing such an inept offensive team in Philadelphia and they won't have that same advantage against the Falcons on Sunday. Atlanta's tour of the NFC East has come up roses so far and they have made plays on offense in crucial moments in both of their wins. Matt Ryan hasn't been spectacular but has been his usual solid self, and has had to carry the load as the Falcons haven't been able to establish a run game yet this season. With how banged up Dallas is on offense I would be shocked to see them win this game.

Prediction: Atlanta 27, Dallas 15

Indianapolis (0-2) at Tennessee (1-1), Indianapolis favored by 3

Chaos and panic abound in Indianapolis as the Colts are off to their second straight 0-2 start. Last season, they rebounded by beating up on their pathetic division and eventually finished 11-5 and made the AFC Championship. The Colts free agent acquisitions of Frank Gore and Andre Johnson have been busts so far. Gore had an awful fumble in the Monday Night loss as he was headed for a touchdown and then fumbled the ball without even being touched. Andrew Luck has been awful as well, throwing way too many interceptions and being careless. However, a turnaround could be in order as the Colts next three games are all division games. The Titans came back down to Earth last week at Cleveland after their impressive opener at Tampa. Marcus Mariota still has yet to throw an interception this season but he did fumble way too much in the loss and will have to become more careful with the football. The Colts were my pick to make the Super Bowl out of the AFC, but their playoff hopes are probably cooked if they can't even win at Tennessee. I may have underestimated the tenuous situation developing with Chuck Pagano currently being a lameduck coach.

Prediction: Indianapolis 26, Tennessee 20

Oakland (1-1) at Cleveland (1-1), Cleveland favored by 3 1/2

Josh McCown makes his return for the starter for the Browns, sending Johnny Football back to the bench. The Raiders are coming off an impressive win at home against Baltimore, where Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree all shined. It will be interesting to see if the Raiders can bring that same level of performance on the road to Cleveland. The Browns secondary, led by Joe Haden, will be up for the challenge presented by the Raiders passing game. McCown will have his opportunities against a porous Raiders secondary and it will be interesting to see if he can develop the same rapport with Travis Benjamin that Johnny Manziel had.

Prediction: Cleveland 19, Oakland 16

Cincinnati (2-0) at Baltimore (0-2), Baltimore favored by 2 1/2

Just a terrible loss from the Ravens at Oakland last week. The Bengals had completely destroyed Oakland the week before. Sure they were helped by knocking Derek Carr out of the game, but even before that had happened they were in control. The Baltimore secondary had no answers for the Raiders passing attack, and their offense and defense can't seem to get on the same page. Now they face basically a must win game at home against the undefeated Bengals. Andy Dalton has been quietly really good so far this season and has yet to throw an interception. A situation could be brewing in the Bengals backfield. Jeremy Hill fumbled it early against San Diego and then saw Giovanni Bernard take most of the carries and take advantage of his opportunity. Justin Forsett has just 111 yards rushing in two games, and the Ravens haven't done a very good job of establishing the run game. The Ravens are a tough team to beat in Baltimore, but the Bengals did it last year and I think they are playing so much better than Baltimore right now, that they will do it again.

Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Baltimore 28

Jacksonville (1-1) at New England (2-0), New England favored by 13 1/2

Well, Bloof Borkles showed me. He was an integral part of Jacksonville's upset of Miami and showed that perhaps the Jaguars will have a pulse this season. He will really have a chance to prove himself this week as the Jaguars travel to New England to take on the defending champs. The Patriots went about their business last week, and dispatched the loudmouth Bills. Any other team you might worry about them overlooking a clearly inferior opponent, but with the Patriots that isn't even a possibility. Interestingly, in last week's game Bill Belichick opted to hardly use LaGarrette Blount at running back, giving most of the carries to Dion Lewis. Lewis is proving to be a weapon both running and catching the ball, and seems to be becoming the new Shane Vereen for New England. I think Jacksonville can keep this game somewhat respectable but they never really will have New England sweating.

Prediction: New England 35, Jacksonville 21

New Orleans (0-2) at Carolina (2-0), Carolina favored by 3

Things are ugly in New Orleans. They inexplicably lost their sixth straight game at home, this time to Jamies Winston and the putrid Bucs. Now Drew Brees is hurting and poor Luke McCown who is in a commercial for something about being a backup, could become the starter if Brees can't get healthy. The question I have is who is Luke McCown's agent?  He must be really good to get a backup quarterback a national commercial. The Panthers are 2-0 in usual boring Panthers fashion. Nothing really flashy or newsworthy, just going out and beating the AFC South. Whether Brees plays or not, I like Carolina in this game, as I expect their defense to frustrate the Saints offense and Cam Newton will make enough plays to keep the Panthers ahead and on to victory.

Prediction: Carolina 24, New Orleans 17

Tampa Bay (1-1) at Houston (0-2), Houston favored by 7

The Texans have been one of the worst teams of the season thus far. They created a quarterback controversy before the first game was even over, they have no running game to speak of, and their defense has been mostly average. Arian Foster is working hard to get back and there is a chance he plays on Sunday, which couldn't come any sooner for the Texans. Jamies Winston earned his first win as an NFL starter, but its hard to tell if Tampa is improving or they were just the beneficiaries of playing a woeful Saints team. Ryan Mallett needs to find more ways to get the ball to DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans aren't going to be successful if old ass Nate Washington is leading the team in yards receiving.

Prediction: Houston 22, Tampa Bay 16

Pittsburgh (1-1) at St. Louis (1-1), Pittsburgh favored by 1

The Steelers looked like Super Bowl contenders last week as they completely obliterated the San Francisco 49ers. They also decided to shake things up a bit and start going for two point conversions after their touchdowns. You may have noticed that extra points are no longer gimmes and are now 33-yard kicks, which can actually be missed. The 49ers couldn't stop the Steelers and based on comments by Ben Roethlibserger the Steelers might continue to employ the two point conversion strategy throughout the season. The Steelers have La'Veon Bell returning from suspension for them as well, but their offense hummed along pretty well without him. The Rams on the other hand, had a terrible Sunday last week. After knocking off the Seahawks it seemed the Rams might be ready to take the next step from mediocre to good. But instead, they lost by two touchdowns to the Redskins and reminded everyone that mediocre coaches breed mediocre teams. Now even with that being said, I like the Rams to upset Pittsburgh on Sunday. Even though the stands are usually half full and in this case, I expect half the crowd to be Steelers fans, the Rams play much better at home, especially defensively. I think it is going to be a long day at the office for Roethlisberger and he will be running for his life. Roethlisberger is one of the best at throwing on the run and evading the rush but if he is doing it all game, he will eventually wear down. The Rams offense should also be buoyed by the debut of Todd Gurley.

Prediction: St. Louis 33, Pittsburgh 30

San Francisco (1-1) at Arizona (2-0), Arizona favored by 6 1/2

After a promising Week 1 victory, the team that 49ers fans feared showed up in an embarrassing Week 2 loss at Pittsburgh. The defense, specifically the secondary was dreadful, leaving receivers open all over the field. The offense only moved the ball when the game was completely out of reach and the Steelers started relaxing on defense. Things will be no easier on Sunday when the 49ers travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. Arizona looks like one of the best teams in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season. All three phases of the game, offense, defense and special teams are clicking for the Cardinals right now. Hell, Larry Fitzgerald returned from the dead and had 3 touchdown catches last week. Carson Palmer is once again an elite quarterback, despite being 35 years old and for years seeming like his best days were well behind him. Arizona is a tough stadium to play in and I expect the 49ers to start the game off flustered by the atmosphere. I think the Cardinals will do what they want on offense and Colin Kaepernick won't start getting the chains moving on offense until things are out of reach. Beacuse I expect the Cardinals to pull ahead quickly, that will also limit Carlos Hyde's touches, the one true weapon the offense seems to have right now. Things don't get any easier next week when Green Bay comes to San Francisco.

Prediction: Arizona 35, San Francisco 20

Buffalo (1-1) at Miami (1-1), Miami favored by 3

Both the Bills and Dolphins are coming off disappointing losses and will need a victory in this game to avoid falling two games back of the Patriots in the division. The Bills and especially their defense were knocked back down to Earth after Tom Brady and the Patriots had their way with them. The Dolphins are still waiting for Ndamukong Suh to have an impact and negative stories about Suh freelancing on defense have already started leaking out. Ryan Tannehill has played well for Miami but Lamar Miller has not and he is now questionable for this game. Tannehill and the Dolphins offense can't just be pass happy, they need Miller to start producing. LeSean McCoy has gotten off to a decent start but is looking for his first rushing touchdown of the season. I think as long as Joe Philbin remains the Dolphins coach, Miami won't take that next step to the playoffs. That means losing games like this at home that they need to and should win.

Prediction: Buffalo 27, Miami 24

Chicago (0-2) at Seattle (0-2), Seattle favored by 14 1/2

After back to back road losses Seattle finally can return to the comforts of home. Even better they get to play the Bears, who might be the worst team in football. The Bears are likely without Jay Cutler for this game, meaning Jimmy Clausen will be making the start. Imagining Clausen trying to lead the Bears to victory in Seattle makes me laugh. If the Seahawks can't blow the doors off Chicago this week, something might really be wrong with the two time defending NFC champions. Their defense also will be getting back Kam Chancellor, who had seen enough and is returning to save the day!

Prediction: Seattle 38, Chicago 17

Denver (2-0) at Detroit (0-2), No Line

Much like the Seahawks, the Lions are more than happy to be returning home after opening the season with 2 road losses. They face a tough opponent in the Broncos, who showed great resiliency in their win at Kansas City last Thursday. In the first half of that game Peyton Manning and the entire team looked like 6-10 team I predicted they would be. Then in the second half Manning came alive and the defense created some turnovers and the Broncos were all of the sudden 2-0. They still haven't gotten their running game going, although in my opinion Ronnie Hillman has shown more than C.J. Anderson and should start receiving more carries. The Lions don't have much of a running game either, so expect to see lots of passes in this one. These two offenses used to be very high octane, and I think this game three years ago would have me a lot more excited for it than it would now. However, Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas are two of the top receivers in football and each should make some big plays in this game. I like Denver to once again find a way to pull out a tough victory on the road.

Prediction: Denver 24, Detroit 21


Monday, September 28

Kansas City (1-1) at Green Bay (2-0), Green Bay favored by 6 1/2

Kansas City will have had 11 days to stew over their crushing home loss to the Broncos. The player stewing the most has to be Jamaal Charles. It was his crucial fumble late that cost the Chiefs. He also had a fumble earlier in the game that Denver converted into points, overshadowing what was a really strong performance for the most part from him. Alex Smith did not have a strong performance against Denver and was careless with the ball, something that is uncharacteristic of him. The Packers RB Eddie Lacy is questionable, but James Starks is experienced and stepped in against the Seahawks and nearly ran for 100 yards. The Packers offense continues to hum along, even as players go down. As long as they have Aaron Rodgers quarterbacking, it doesn't seem to matter who else is hurt. The Packers are seemingly unbeatable at Lambeau, and I expect it to be a long night for the Chiefs. Also, yes, Smith has still not thrown a touchdown to a wide receiver this year.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Kansas City 21

Last Week Straight Up: 7-9
Overall Straight Up: 18-14

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-9
Overall Against the Spread: 17-14-1