2012 March Madness (South and Midwest Regions) - Sweet 16 and Elite 8

So last night didn't go so well for me in the picks department. I correctly predicted just one of the four games, so hoping for a little more success tonight. Tonight's games feature some Cinderellas, a David vs. Goliath battle, and a rematch from one of the best games of the regular season. Syracuse, Ohio State, Louisville, and Florida punched their Elite Eight tickets last night, who will join them?

South Regional Semi-Final

#10 Xavier (23-12) vs. #3 Baylor (29-7)

Xavier was having a strong season and then the rails came off following the ugly brawl in their game against Cincinnati. They were able to right the ship just in time to make the NCAA Tournament and after wins against Notre Dame and Lehigh are in the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in five seasons. Their best player by far is senior guard Tu Holloway. Holloway averaged 17 points per game during the season and is averaging 23 points per game in the first two games of the tournament. He is joined in the back court by another dangerous guard, junior Mark Lyons. Lyons was second on the team in scoring and assists but was pretty quiet in the past two games. The Musketeers big presence inside is senior C Kenny Frease. Frease was a monster against Lehigh, scoring 25 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. He doesn't figure to have nearly that stat line going up against Perry Jones III but how he plays is a major factor in whether or not Xavier pulls the upset.

After a disappointing season last year Baylor has been at the top of the rankings just about all season. They got more than expected trouble from South Dakota State in the Second Round, but were able to blow away Colorado in Round Three. Perry Jones III is their leading scorer but he is also wildly inconsistent. He has not played well at all thus far in the tournament and was virtually invisible against Colorado. They can win when Jones struggles but if they want to a national championship he will have to pick up his play. The Bears have an electric guard in Pierre Jackson, as Jackson can both score and facilitate the offense. Watching him and Holloway go against each other will be fun. The Bears other big man that complements Jones is Quincy Acy. At just 6'7 Acy averages almost as many rebounds as the 6'11 Jones. He plays with a ton of heart and if Jones had Acy's motor Jones would probably be a consensus #1 pick in the NBA draft.

Baylor is a better offensive team than Xavier but Xavier will be able to stay in this game because of their defense. It will really come down to how well Xavier is able to slow down Baylor's bigs, Jones and Acy. Unfortunately, for the Musketeers I don't think they will be able to slow them down much, and the Bears will be in the Elite Eight for the second time in three years.

Prediction: Baylor 77, Xavier 69

Midwest Regional Semi-Final

#13 Ohio (29-7) vs. #1 North Carolina (31-5)

The story of this game would normally be the David, Ohio from the MAC, taking on the Goliath, North Carolina from the ACC. Instead, all of the talk has been about whether or not Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall will be able to play or not. As of right now it appears Marshall will not play tonight. Marshall is critical to the success of Carolina. Despite all of the talent they will still have on the floor, they are only at their peak when Marshall is facilitating. Luckily, for the Heels they have a good draw for tonight's game against an over matched Ohio team.

Carolina breezed through Vermont and Creighton with relative ease. The way Carolina looked was what had everyone anointing them as the number one team prior to the season. With Marshall unlikely to suit up tonight he will be replaced by a combo of freshman Stillman White and senior Justin Watts. Watts may get more playing time as the senior but this is why the loss of Dexter Strickland earlier in the season was so huge. Strickland would have been a much better option, despite not being a natural point guard. Hopefully White and Watts can avoid a ton of turnovers, contribute some points if possible and just let John Henson, Tyler Zeller, Reggie Bullock, and Harrison Barnes do their things.

Ohio is the highest remaining seed in the tournament. They knocked off Michigan, and then took out South Florida. The Bobcats have been carried by their point guard D.J. Cooper. Cooper shot very well against Michigan and South Florida and made the big plays late in both games when they needed him. The Bobcats second most known player is Nick Kellogg, the son of former player and broadcaster Clark Kellogg. Nick can be dangerous from three point land and allowing perimeter shots has been the Achilles heel, no pun intended, for North Carolina this season.

I can't see any way Carolina loses this game. With Marshall they would probably win by 20-25 points, without him I think they can still win by double digits. Carolina's size is going to be overwhelming to Ohio and unless the Bobcats shot 60%, I can't see them hanging around. One key will be for Carolina to take a large lead early and not allow Ohio to get any confidence. Things could become stressful if they let Ohio hang around for an extended period of time.

Prediction: North Carolina 80, Ohio 66

South Regional Semi-Final

#4 Indiana (27-8) vs. #1 Kentucky (34-2)

These two teams played each other in Bloomington on December 10th, with the Hoosiers handing Kentucky their first loss of the season on a buzzer beater by Christian Watford, 73-72. If you watch ESPN you have probably seen the shot about a million times by now as they feature it in one of their commercials. That game cemented that the Hoosiers were back on the national stage. Now they try to do what seems to be impossible, beat the best team in the country twice.

The Hoosiers are lucky to even be in this game. After a comfortable win against New Mexico State, it took a late rally against VCU for the Hoosiers to win that game. A lot of teams in the NCAA rely on their guards but the Hoosiers success hinges on their two forwards, Watford and Cody Zeller. Both were able to get Anthony Davis in foul trouble for Kentucky and he played just 24 minutes in the first game. If they can attack Davis inside and get him into the foul trouble, the impossible will become much more possible. While he may not be the focal point of the team, guard Jordan Hulls is still crucial. He struggled mightily against VCU and that was a big reason that the Hoosiers were trailing most of the game.

Everyone knows about Davis and how good he has been for the Wildcats. They are filled with weapons and on paper appear impossible to beat. If you somehow slow down Davis you still have to deal with Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marquis Teague, and Terrence Jones. The Wildcats usually play a 7 man rotation to the secret to beating them is to try to get them into foul trouble and make them use their bench.

Homecourt advantage was the difference in the last game and without that I don't think the Hoosiers are in the Wildcats league. I expect Davis to play under control and avoid foul trouble and the weapons of the Wildcats to overwhelm Indiana and give Kentucky their revenge.

Prediction: Kentucky 75, Indiana 65

Midwest Regional Semi-Final

#11 North Carolina State (24-12) vs. #2 Kansas (29-6)

Allow me to take a moment to pat myself on the back as being one of the few people to pick 11 seed NC State to reach the Sweet 16. After watching the Wolfpack play in the ACC Tournament I could tell that they were a team hitting their peak at the right team. If you look at their stats they are actually much better than you might expect. They are a better rebounding team than Kansas and also almost as good a scoring team. They dispatched San Diego State rather easily in Round Two and then rallied to defeat Georgetown in Round Three. Sophomore C.J. Leslie is the biggest reason for the Wolfpack's turnaround under first year coach Mark Gottfriend. He has raised his game considerably and his ability to battle with Georgetown's bigs kept the Wolfpack in the game when they trailed early. Another player who has shown considerable improvement this year is forward Richard Howell. Like Leslie, Howell has seen his numbers rise across the board, he struggled against the Hoyas but had an outstanding game against the Aztecs. The Wolfpack also have a dangerous point guard in Lorenzo Brown.

Kansas had little trouble with Detroit but trailed most of their game against Purdue before their defense forced enough turnovers to give them the victory. One of the most improved players in country is their senior point guard Tyshawn Taylor. Taylor has raised his scoring 8 points a game this season, and it was a late steal, followed by a layup that was the key to them overcoming Purdue. The man that received most of the pub for the Jayhawks is forward Thomas Robinson, a Player of the Year candidate. He had a terrible game against Purdue and will need to bounce back for the Jayhawks to avoid an unexpected early exit.

Some people will just look at the seeds and think mismatch, but as I stated above the Wolfpack aren't that far off from the Jayhawks. I think this will be one of those games where neither team is able to take a big lead and will be filled with lead changes. I think Kansas will make just enough plays at the end of the game, like they did against Purdue, that they will escape with the win.

Prediction: Kansas 70, North Carolina State 67

In Sunday's Elite Eight games I think that Kentucky will get past Baylor in a physical, bruising affair. Perry Jones may really be exposed by Anthony Davis. Then in the other game, I hope that somehow Kendall Marshall will himself to play some. Even without him, I still think Carolina can beat Kansas and get back to The Final Four.