Friday, September 25, 2009

The Hail Mary - Week 3

The Washington Redskins have officially become a national joke. You know you're a joke when everyone and their mother is picking a team that has lost 19 games in a row to beat you. However, I think the pundits jumping on the Detroit Lions to beat Washington might be the best thing that could have happened to the Redskins.

Games That I Will Be Watching

Washington (1-1) at Detroit (0-2), Washington favored by 6 1/2

The Redskins might as well be 0-2. That is the mood of the Washington Metro area after their ugly 9-7 victory over the putrid St. Louis Rams last weekend. Because of that poor performance, the national media has become convinced that the Redskins will be the team to finally fall to the Lions. While certainly possible, it won't happen. The Redskins have been hearing all week how terrible they are. Their coach sucks, their quarterback sucks, their offense sucks, you name it, they have heard it. Before the season the Skins would have overlooked this game. However, circumstances have made this the biggest game of their young season. The Redskins can move the ball on offense, they just can't score once they hit the red zone. I think the Lions defense is susceptible to the big play. I also think that the Redskins defense can make life a living hell for Lions rookie QB Matthew Stafford. I don't think Washington will blow out Detroit but the Skins will get the win.

Prediction: Washington 24, Detroit 20

Kansas City (0-2) at Philadelphia (1-1), No Line

The big news in this game will be the official return of Eagles QB Mike Vick to the NFL. Vick will definitely play, with the main question being whether or not he or Jeff Garcia will be the number 2 quarterback behind Kevin Kolb. The Eagles will be without QB Donovan McNabb for a second straight week, and could also be without RB Brian Westbrook and WR DeSean Jackson. Healthy, the Eagles could easily handle the Chiefs at home, but with the amount of injuries they will struggle. I still think even injured they are good enough to beat the Chiefs and their anemic offense.

Prediction: Philadelphia 23, Kansas City 17

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Cincinnati (1-1), Pittsburgh favored by 4

This game gained some luster with the Steelers loss to Chicago, and the Bengals win at Green Bay. The Bengals are trying to prove that they can compete for the AFC North with the Steelers and Ravens. However, in recent history the Steelers have owned the Bengals in Cincinnati. I expect that trend to continue.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 26, Cincinnati 21

Indianapolis (2-0) at Arizona (1-1), Arizona favored by 2

If Petyon Manning and the Colts can win a game where they only have the ball for 15 minutes, why bet against them?

Prediction: Indianapolis 28, Arizona 24

Carolina (0-2) at Dallas (1-1), Dallas favored by 9

The Cowboys, and namely QB Tony Romo, opened the new Cowboys stadium with a thud. Romo threw 3 INTs and was a big reason Dallas lost to the Giants. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme knows all about being the goat. He played much better last week but it wasn't enough against the Falcons. Carolina will be playing for their season on Monday night, and will be desperate. A desperate team is not going to lose by more than 9 to a average team.

Prediction: Dallas 27, Carolina 20

Rest of Week 3

Green Bay (1-1) at St. Louis (0-2), Green Bay favored by 6 1/2

The Packers can't protect QB Aaron Rodgers and have been decimated with injuries to their offensive line. Fortunately for them, the Rams can't rush the quarterback, registering 0 sacks in their first two games.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, St. Louis 25

San Francisco (2-0) at Minnesota (2-0), Minnesota favored by 7

Although it isn't getting much attention, this is the game of the weekend. The 49ers look like they have a Top 10 defense, and RB Frank Gore was brilliant in last week's win against Seattle. Obviously, people still aren't buying them as legit, hence the Vikings being favored by 7. This is a complete homer pick, but I think the 49ers announce they are for real on Sunday.

Prediction: San Francisco 21, Minnesota 19

Atlanta (2-0) at New England (1-1), New England favored by 4

I predicted the Patriots would go 14-2 and win the Super Bowl. However, after how they have looked the first two weeks, they will be lucky to make the playoffs. I expected the Falcons to have a drop off, but QB Matt Ryan looks even better, and the defense has played well. I think eventually the Patriots will get it together, just not this week.

Prediction: Atlanta 28, New England 21

Tennessee Titans (0-2) at New York Jets (2-0), New York Jets favored by 2 1/2

Many people thought the records would be opposite going into this game. The Jets defense has played tremendous, and you can already see the impact coach Rex Ryan has had on them. The Titans will be playing for their season, while I think the Jets might be too in love with themselves, after all the slobbing the media has given them this past week.

Prediction: Tennessee 16, New York Jets 13

New York Giants (2-0) at Tampa Bay (0-2), New York Giants favored by 6 1/2

It is going to be a long year for the Buccaneers. The Giants look like they have a new stud at WR, Marion Manningham. If he turns out to be legit then the Giants have a great chance to be Super Bowl contenders. One thing they have to figure out is their red zone offense. You can't always count on the big play.

Prediction: New York Giants 34, Tampa Bay 17

Cleveland (0-2) at Baltimore (2-0), Baltimore favored by 13 1/2

The Ravens appear to finally have a legitimate offense. QB Joe Flacco has looked great through two weeks, and RB Willis McGahee appears re-motivated. The Ravens are playing with a certain swagger right now, that has me thinking this team has a real chance at being champions at the end of the season.

Prediction: Baltimore 28, Cleveland 7

Jacksonville (0-2) at Houston (1-1), Houston favored by 3

The Texans are a tough team to figure out. They look completely listless at home against the Jets in Week 1, and then in Week 2 their offense explodes on the road against the Titans. If Jacksonville falls to 0-3, coach Jack Del Rio will need to really start updating his resume.

Prediction: Houston 24, Jacksonville 14

Chicago (1-1) at Seattle (1-1), Chicago favored by 1

It is still not clear if Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck will play on Sunday. Even if he does play he will not have practiced all week, and will still probably be hurting. Too many question marks for me to pick the Seahawks. One quick fantasy football note, Chicago, start getting RB Matt Forte more touches!!!!

Prediction: Chicago 20, Seattle 10

New Orleans (2-0) at Buffalo (1-1), New Orleans favored by 6

The Saints have looked like a juggernaut so far, putting up more than 40 points in each of the first two weeks. For the Bills, WR Terrell Owens got in the end zone against Tampa last week, and is hopefully starting to develop a chemistry with QB Trent Edwards. RB Fred Jackson has taken advantage of his opportunity with Marshawn Lynch suspended and has been carrying the Bills on his back. I think the Bills spring the upset.

Prediction: Buffalo 27, New Orleans 24

Denver (2-0) at Oakland (1-1), Oakland favored by 1 1/2

The Broncos are perhaps the fraudiest 2-0 team in the history of EVAR. The Raiders won last week despite QB Jamarcus Russell being quite possibly the worst starting quarterback in the history of EVAR. The Broncos defense has been surprisingly stout the first two weeks, but so has the Raiders defense. When two teams are pretty evenly matched, go with the home field advantage.

Prediction: Oakland 17, Denver 14

Miami (0-2) at San Diego (1-1), San Diego favored by 6

Miami started 0-2 last season and recovered to go 11-5 and win the AFC East. So they don't have to panic just yet. However, if they lose this one, then it will definitely be time to panic. WR Ted Ginn needs to learn how to catch. He plays scared in big situations, which I think is causing him to drop passes he should be catching. San Diego has problems of their own, with their offensive line being banged up, and missing Jamal Williams on defense. I would pick Miami, but don't see San Diego falling to 0-2 at home.

Prediction: San Diego 30, Miami 27

Last Week Against the Spread: 14-2
Overall Against the Spread: 24-8

Last Week Straight Up: 10-6
Overall Straight Up: 22-10

2 comments:

Triston27 said...

Nicely done going 14-2 ATS.

This is a complete homer pick, but I think the 49ers announce they are for real on Sunday.

Can it be considered a "homer" pick when you root for different teams (on different levels and sports) in every region of the country?

C Hirsch said...

Hahah, that's a fair point Triston.