Wednesday, August 15, 2012

2012 NFL Divisional Previews - NFC South

The New Orleans Saints ran roughshod over the NFC South last season. It was almost like they were motivated by extra money payments they may receive for injuring and embarrassing opponents. The Saints keep denying they had this motivation but the league disagreed. Now, New Orleans will have to try to repeat as NFC South champs without their head coach, Sean Payton. The Carolina Panthers are everyone's sleeper team this season. The reason for that is second year quarterback, Cam Newton. The Atlanta Falcons have had plenty of regular season success under coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan, but playoff success has eluded them thus far. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are starting fresh this year, with former Rutgers coach Greg Schiano and some new players after the Glazers finally decided to spend some money.


1. New Orleans Saints

2011 Record: 13-3, NFC South Champs
Head Coach: Joe Vitt (interim, 1st season New Orleans, suspended first six games of 2012, 4-7 career)
Key Additions: G Ben Grubbs, DT Brodrick Bunkley, OLB David Hawthorne, OLB Chris Chamberlain, ILB Curtis Lofton
Key Losses: Head Coach Sean Payton, WR Robert Meachem, G Carl Nicks, NT Shaun Rogers, NT Aubrayo Franklin, CB Tracy Porter

2012 Outlook: The Saints were basically two different teams in 2011. At home, they were unbeatable and it was impossible to slow their offense down. On the road, the offense didn’t click as much and the Saints mediocre defense would get exposed.  Had the Saints had homefield throughout the playoffs they probably could have won another Super Bowl. But instead they finished third behind the Packers and 49ers, and then were unable to win in San Francisco in the playoffs. Then all hell broke loose in the offseason with the revealing of the Saints bounty system on defense. Now they must try to maneuver through the year without Sean Payton, and they will even be without their interim coach Joe Vitt for the first six games. Some good news for the Saints was the re-signing of Drew Brees to a long-term contract. Brees was magnificent last season and his knowledge of the offense will have to be what carries the team without Payton. The Saints have many options at running back with Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles. Sproles was fantastic for New Orleans last year, leading the team in rushing, but also serving as one of their better, most electrifying pass catchers. They will hope for more out of Ingram this season, as he struggled through injuries last year. The Saints passing game was best in the league and returns all of their weapons, save for WR Robert Meachem. The Saints re-signed Marques Colston, who had a strong year despite once again having to sit out a few games due to being hurt. The real breakout star was TE Jimmy Graham, who would have had the single greatest season of a tight end in history, had it not been for the ridiculous year Rob Gronkowski had.  Lance Moore and Devery Henderson figure to continue to benefit from the sheer amount of weapons the Saints have.  The Saints lost their best offensive lineman to free agency, Carl Nicks. They replaced him with Ben Grubbs, and the rest of the line remains intact. They played well last season, only allowing 24 sacks and they know how much the success of the team hinges on the health of Brees. The defense has also been affected by the bounty scandal, as Will Smith was suspended for 4 games, and pending an appeal LB Joe Vilma is suspended for the season. This was already a unit that had its problems last season. They didn’t effectively rush the quarterback and their corners and safeties were torched consistently. The Saints were most successful when forcing turnovers but haven’t been able to get back to the rate they had when they won the Super Bowl. They hope that free agent addition Broderick Bunkley can control the line of scrimmage, but he can only do so much for a team that mostly struggled stopping the pass. They also hope the signing of Curtis Lofton from the rival Falcons will offset Vilma’s likely absence. The Saints have a battle at kicker between dirt old, John Carney and Garrett Hartley. Hartley missed last season with an injury but most likely should win his job back. Thomas Morstead, when given the chance, was an effective punter. I can’t see the Saints not feeling the effects of the bounty scandal this season. They still have a ton of talent, but with upheaval as far as the coaches and just the general distractions that come with it, their win total will suffer a bit. I still think they are far enough ahead of the rest of the division to remain as the class of the NFC South.

Prediction: 10-6

2. Carolina Panthers

2011 Record: 6-10, 3rd place NFC South
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (2nd season Carolina, 6-10 career)
Key Additions: RB Mike Tolbert, OT/G Bruce Campbell, LB Luke Kuechly
Key Losses: RB Mike Goodson, WR Legedu Naanee, TE Jeremy Shockey, ILB Dan Connor

2012 Outlook: Cam Newton had one of the greatest seasons ever for a rookie quarterback. The change he brought to the Carolina Panthers offense is almost indescribable. They went from a unit that couldn’t get out of their own way in 2010, to one of the best in the league in 2011, all because of Newton.  The scary thing for the rest of the league is that Newton should only get better. The Panthers might have the best rushing attack in the league. Newton is a threat to run every single time, and their backfield is stacked with DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and now the addition of Mike Tolbert.  You would think with the passing numbers Newton put up last season that their receivers must be pretty good, but you would be wrong. Steve Smith is very good, and showed he still has plenty left in the tank when he has a competent quarterback throwing him the ball. Besides him though, there isn’t much there. Brandon LeFell will be counted on to try to give Smith some help against defenses, while TE Greg Olsen will hope in his second year in Carolina he can figure out his role in the passing game. The Panthers offensive line is okay, but they are definitely helped by Newton’s ability to avoid pressure. For the Panthers to reach the playoffs, it is their defense that must improve. They were near the bottom in the league against both the run and the pass. They bolstered their linebacking corps by drafting Luke Kuelchy out of Boston College. It will also help to have Pro Bowl LB Jon Beason back after he missed all of last season with an injury. The secondary remains mostly the same, so the Panthers just have to hope that another year of experience will help those players improve. Special teams were another area of concern, where kicker Olindo Mare struggled pretty badly, but he returns in 2012. Either Brad Nortman or Nick Harris will take over the punter role as Jason Baker was not retained after a poor 2011. This could be the Panthers chance to make some noise with the issues the Saints have and the Falcons seeming like they might be on a bit of a downturn. Their success hinges on Newton continuing his progress and the defense improving. I think both of those things will happen enough to get the Panthers back to a winning season.

Prediction: 9-7 

3. Atlanta Falcons

2011 Record: 10-6, 2nd place NFC South
Head Coach: Mike Smith (5th season Atlanta, 43-24 career)
Key Addition: CB Asante Samuel
Key Losses: OLB Mike Peterson, SS James Sanders

2012 Outlook: For the longest time the Falcons could never string together back to back winning seasons. They did that in 2009. Then it became, well they can never string together back to back playoff seasons, but then they accomplished that last season. The new hurdle is that they can’t win in the playoffs. Their last two playoff losses were disasters, the embarrassment at home to Green Bay in 2010, and nearly being shut out by the Giants last year. Sure those losses both came to eventual Super Bowl champions, but there are already whispers out there that Mike Smith and Matt Ryan can’t win the big game. Ryan had his best passing season last year and continues to be a solid player. It remains to be seen if he can take that next step and become elite. The running game took a bit of a dip last year as it relied far too much on Michael Turner, especially in a league that favors having a two to three man backfield these days. The Falcons hope that second year player Jacquizz Rodgers can begin to make an impact. The receiving corps is strong with Roddy White and Julio Jones. White started showing signs of being on the downswing so the pressure will be on Jones to not only eventually replace White but make the haul of picks the Falcons gave up for Jones worth it. TE Tony Gonzalez is back for perhaps his final season and still remains one of the better tight ends in the league. The Falcons offensive line gave up just 26 sacks last year, which is especially good because Ryan isn’t that mobile of a quarterback. The Falcons defense struggled against the pass so they went out and acquired CB Asante Samuel from the Eagles. Asante is still fantastic at ball hawking and getting interceptions, and teamed up with Brent Grimes gives the Falcons a strong cornerback tandem. The Falcons are hoping that Ray Edwards and John Abraham prove more of a lethal pass rushing combo than they were in 2011. Abraham had a pretty good season but Edwards was a bust last year. Falcons kicker Matt Bryant is one of the better, most consistent kickers in the league. The punting game is not good or consistent though and second year man Matt Bosher will have to improve. Schedules are unpredictable but based on last year’s results Atlanta would have one of the toughest in the league. A tough schedule, plus some of their better weapons on both offense and defense getting up there in age, will contribute to the Falcons having their first non-winning season in the Smith/Ryan era.

Prediction: 8-8

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2011 Record: 4-12, last place NFC South
Head Coach: Greg Schiano (1st season Tampa Bay, 0-0 career)
Key Additions: WR Vincent Jackson, TE Dallas Clark, G Carl Nicks, RB Doug Martin, DT Amobi Okoye, CB Eric Wright, S Mark Barron
Key Losses: RB Earnest Graham, TE Kellen Winslow, S Corey Lynch, KR Michael Spurlock 

2012 Outlook: The Buccaneers were thought to be a team on the rise after just missing out on the playoffs in 2010. They got off to a nice 4-2 start in 2011, and then bottom fell out. The Bucs lost their last ten games, and only two of those ten were by less than double digits, as the team apparently quit on their coach, Raheem Morris. The notoriously cheap Glazers finally opened up their pockets and brought in free agents WR Vincent Jackson and G Carl Nicks, and wooed Greg Schiano away from Rutgers and gave him his first NFL job. The offense fell apart with QB Josh Freeman, WR Mike Williams, and RB LaGarrette Blount all seeing their numbers trail off after strong 2010 seasons. The team is hopeful that Vincent Jackson can help Freeman get back to form, and also take some pressure off Williams, who showed he wasn’t ready to be a number one receiver. They also drafted RB Doug Martin to compete with Blount and hopefully light a fire under him. At tight end the Bucs replaced Kellen Winslow with Dallas Clark, who is trying to fight off claims that he is past his prime. The Buccaneers offensive line wasn’t all that bad last season and adding one of the better ones in the game, from a rival no less, in Carl Nicks was a great move. The Bucs defense was awful in every imaginable way. They couldn’t rush the passer effectively, they were terrible against the run, and mostly terrible covering the pass. They brought in DT Amobi Okoye who hasn’t lived up to expectations since the Texans drafted a few years back, and drafted Mark Barron from Alabama. They are hoping that DT Gerald McCoy can stay healthy the entire season as he showed flashes when he was on the field last season.  Second year player Adrian Clayborn also showed some promise to the Bucs might have the pieces there to eventually field a top defense. The kicking and punting units are pretty strong with kicker Connor Barth and punter Michael Koenen. They did loss Morgan Spurlock who had some nice plays in the return game the last few seasons. I think the Bucs could eventually head in the right direction, and they have some nice pieces, but the stench of last season is too hard to ignore. They will be much more competitive under Schiano, but the results being seen in wins is a couple years away.

Prediction: 4-12 

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