Friday, August 17, 2012

2012 NFL Divisional Previews - AFC South

Last season, the AFC South was defined by the rise of the Houston Texans and the sudden fall of the Indianapolis Colts. That means high expectations for the Texans this season, while the Colts have started a new era, the Andrew Luck era. The Tennessee Titans are barely talked about but may prove to be the class of the AFC South when things are all said and done. The Jacksonville Jaguars continue to be irrelevant, new owner, coach and all.


1. Tennessee Titans

2011 Record: 9-7, 2nd place AFC South
Head Coach: Mike Munchak (2nd season Tennessee, 9-7 career)
Key Additions: WR Kendall Wright, G Steve Hutchinson, DE Kamerion Wimbley
Key Losses: TE Daniel Graham, G Jake Scott, CB Cortland Finnegan

2012 Outlook: The Titans were an up and down team in 2011 and because of that finished 9-7, just missing out on the playoffs. Veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck played pretty well for the Titans but it is looking more and more like his time has passed, and that second year man Jake Locker will be taking the reins. Locker didn’t see much action last season but when he did play he looked more than capable of leading the Titans. One of the most shocking stats from 2011 is the Titans finished 31st in the league in rushing and Chris Johnson played most of the season. Johnson did seem affected by his holdout, so the Titans are hopeful that a full training camp and preseason can get him back on track. Johnson is only 26 so he shouldn’t be breaking down yet or anything. The Titans have some weapons at their disposal in the receiving corps, although the status of their #1 receiver Kenny Britt is up in the air. Britt missed most of last year with a torn ACL, and then got arrested again over the summer, and could be facing a suspension. In Britt’s absence Nate Washington had a fantastic season and made the Titans look smart for signing him in free agency a few years ago. The Titans used their first round draft pick on Kendall Wright. Wright will get some opportunities but rookie wide receivers tend to not make too big of an impact in their first season.  The Titans added Steve Hutchinson to their offensive line, which already did a pretty good job protecting their quarterbacks last season. The Titans are hoping Hutchinson can improve their run blocking. The Titans hope that the strong play tight end Jared Cook showed at the end of last season is a harbinger of things to come. For the Titans to become a playoff team, they will have to get improved play from their defense. The biggest weakness of the defense was their inability to pressure the quarterback, so the Titans signed DE Kamerion Wimbley to rectify those problems. They also will need improved play on the defensive line, as they were one of the worst units against the run in 2011. They lost longtime CB Cortland Finnegan but believe that Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner can pick up the slack. Kicker Rob Bironas continues to be one of the better kickers in the league, especially from long range. Punter Brett Kern struggled last season, which put pressure on the Titans defense. I liked what I saw out of Locker last season and think his time is now. The Titans are well coached by Mike Munchak and will be competitive. I think with the Texans faltering a bit, the Titans will surprise many and end up winning the AFC South.

Prediction: 9-7

2. Houston Texans

2011 Record: 10-6, AFC South champs
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (7th season Houston, 48-50 career)
Key Additions: QB John Beck, RB Justin Forsett, DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus, ILB Bradie James
Key Losses: QB Matt Leinart, WR/KR Jacoby Jones, TE Joel Dreesen, RT Eric Winston, G Kasey Studdard, G Mike Brisiel, DE Mario Williams, ILB DeMeco Ryans, K Neil Rackers

2012 Outlook: The Houston Texans finally had a winning season and with that also earned a division title and a playoff win. Their patience with Coach Gary Kubiak seemed to pay off. However, the problem for Kubiak now is that the Texans have huge expectations entering 2012, probably too high for a team that lost a lot of key pieces in the off-season. What was most amazing about the Texans 2011 was the amount of injuries they overcame. They lost DE Mario Williams, and the defense still had an incredible turnaround under coordinator Wade Phillips. They saw both Matt Schaub and then his backup Matt Leinart go down with injuries, and won a playoff game with third string rookie T.J. Yates starting for them. Their best wide receiver Andre Johnson played just seven games last year. Texans fans are hoping the injury Gods had their fun with the team in 2011 and they will be much healthier in 2012. One reason they were able to overcome all the injuries at quarterback was the amazing play of RB Arian Foster. Foster has come from obscurity two years ago to becoming one of the best running backs in the game. He also has a more than capable backup in Ben Tate, who nearly rushed for 1,000 yards last season.  The Texans are thin at wide receiver after Johnson, so Johnson staying healthy this year will be something to watch. The Texans also saw upheaval on the offensive line, as right tackle Eric Winston and guard Mike Brisiel left via free agency. Tight end Owen Daniels will once again be a favorite target of Schaub and Daniels will need to be more consistent and healthy to take pressure off the Texans other less than stellar receivers. The Texans defense went from pretty much the worst in the NFL in 2010, to one of the best in 2011, and did most of that work without Mario Williams. Because of that, the team allowed Williams to walk via free agency. Also, LB DeMeco Ryans was shipped off to Philadelphia, although the Texans are pretty stacked at linebacker and should be ok. J.J. Watt was tremendous in his rookie season and made the play that shifted the playoff game against Cincinnati when he intercepted Andy Dalton and scored. The Texans pass defense was also a strong unit in 2011 and didn’t see any major changes so should be strong once again. Special teams will be an area to watch as Houston let Neil Rackers leave, and are counting on rookie Randy Bullock to take over. They will have a battle at the punter position between Donnie Jones and Brett Hartmann.  There is a lot of Super Bowl talk surrounding the Texans but I just don’t see it. The schedule isn’t all that challenging but I feel like the team had a lot of turnover from last year, and that can’t be ignored.

Prediction: 9-7

3. Indianapolis Colts

2011 Record: 2-14, last place AFC South
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano (1st season Indianapolis, 0-0 career)
Key Additions: QB Andrew Luck, RB Mewelde Moore, WR Donnie Avery, OT Winston Justice, DE/DT Cory Redding, SS Tom Zbikowski 
Key Losses: QB Peyton Manning, QB Dan Orlovsky, RB Joseph Addai, WR Pierre Garcon, TE Dallas Clark, TE Jacob Tamme, G Ryan Diem, C Jeff Saturday, DE Tyler Brayton, DT Eric Foster, ILB Gary Brackett, S Melvin Bullitt

2012 Outlook: When it turned out that Peyton Manning’s neck injuries were much more serious than first believed, there were many, including myself that felt all the other talented players on the Colts would be enough to keep them competitive. Instead, it turned out that Manning made just about everyone around him look much better than they actually were. The result, a 2-14 season, and a complete housecleaning of most of the veterans from the roster and robot head coach Jim Caldwell. The new coach is former Steelers defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano, and the new quarterback is number one draft pick, the can’t miss prospect Andrew Luck. Hype around Luck was already considerable, but grew even more after his impressive preseason performance last weekend against the Rams. The question is, how much help will Luck have on offense this year? Joseph Addai is gone, now the job is Donald Brown’s, who hasn’t always shown he can be trusted to do the other things a running back needs to do, such as block. They also added RB Mewelde Moore to compete with Brown. WR Reggie Wayne was expected to be part of the housecleaning but he re-signed. He is starting to look a little long in the tooth, but I think it was smart to bring him back and give Luck a reliable option to throw to. Austin Collie is now the number two receiver, although he might be one or two more concussions away from having to retire. Unfortunately for Luck and the Colts, the offensive line is a complete question mark and could get Luck killed. Eagles fans can attest when Winston Justice might be your best offensive lineman, you have some real problems. At tight end the Colts drafted Luck’s teammate out of Stanford Coby Fleener and are hopeful that their chemistry can help both players in their adjustments to the NFL. Defensively, the Colts said goodbye to longtime players Gary  Brackett and Melvin Bullitt. Returning are the bookends of their defensive line, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Both players aren’t what they used to be but still could have a couple good seasons left in them. Corey Redding was brought over from Baltimore to try to help a defensive line that was terrible against the run last year. Former Notre Dame star Tom Zbikowski was added and should start at safety. Future Hall of Famer Adam Vinatieri is back as the kicker and party animal Pat McAfee will once again handle punting duties. I have the Colts making a major turnaround with 7 wins this year. A lot of that is because I believe in Luck and think he can have the kind of instant impact Cam Newton had. It also helps that the schedule is pretty easy and there are many wins to be had.

Prediction: 7-9 

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

2011 Record: 5-11, 3rd place AFC South
Head Coach: Mike Mularkey (1st season Jacksonville, 14-18 career)
Key Additions: QB Chad Henne, WR Justin Blackmon, WR Laurent Robinson, WR Lee Evans, CB Aaron Ross
Key Losses: DE Matt Roth, DE Aaron Kampman

2012 Outlook: The Jaguars were once again under the radar last year and suffered through another irrelevant season. Their rookie quarterback, Blaine Gabbert looked terrible and the only saving grace on the offense was RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Knowing that he was such a vital part of the offense, Jones-Drew is holding out to get a new contract and without him the Jaguars will be even worse offensively. Behind Jones-Drew are a bunch of guys I’ve never heard of so at some point you have to think the Jaguars will cave. Jack Del Rio finally lost his job due to Jacksonville’s struggles last season, so Mike Mularkery receives a second chance as an NFL coach. The Jaguars aren’t sure what they have in Gabbert so they brought in former Dolphins QB Chad Henne as his backup. Henne would show flashes in Miami but was never consistent and hasn’t proven he can lead a team to wins. The Jaguars knew they didn’t help Gabbert’s cause last year by giving him almost no weapons at wide receiver. To solve that, they signed Laurent Robinson from Dallas. Robinson had a nice season but was also the Cowboys number three receiver and a had a good quarterback in Tony Romo. The Jaguars drafted stud WR out of Oklahoma State Justin Blackmon. Now they have to wonder about Blackmon’s off the field behavior as he was busted for DUI over the summer. Prior to last season they gave TE Marcedes Lewis a ton of money and then he promptly looked terrible in 2011 and didn’t even score a touchdown. Another problem for Gabbert was that he doesn’t have a good offensive line. The Jaguars didn’t make any changes to it in the off-season so they are just counting on experience helping the group. One bright spot for Jacksonville is their defense, which was in the top ten against both the rush and pass. They don’t have any real big names or guys you’ve heard outside of maybe LB Paul Posluszny but they play well together as a unit. Kicker Josh Scobee remains awesome and might be the best kicker in the NFL. Jacksonville’s punting was so bad last season that they spent a third round pick on their new punter Bryan Anger. This will be another season in Jacksonville that will largely go unnoticed by the general public and even the 5 fans they have in Jacksonville. It will also be another season with double digits in losses.

Prediction: 4-12  

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