Friday, March 4, 2011

The Alley - Oop

North Carolina vs. Duke. Quite simply, it is by far the best rivalry in college basketball, and arguably the best rivalry in all of sports. There doesn't need anything to be at stake for the games to be huge, but the stakes couldn't be higher Saturday night. The winner will be the regular season ACC Champion and earn a #1 seed in next week's ACC Tournament. The Heels had Duke on their heels, pun definitely intended, when they met in Durham last month, before fading in the second half. This time they will have the homecourt advantage and will be looking for revenge. Oh yeah, there are some other Top 10 games this weekend too.

Saturday

#4 Duke (27-3, 13-2) at #13 North Carolina (23-6, 13-2)

Duke didn't beat North Carolina in their first meeting, Seth Curry and Nolan Smith beat North Carolina. The Heels shut everyone else down, but Curry and Smith exploded in the second half and helped the Blue Devils overcome a 16-point deficit. To win the rematch, Carolina will have to slow those two down, but more importantly they will need much better guard play from freshman Kendall Marshall. Marshall struggled in the first game, missing 8 of 11 shots. He did well at avoiding turnovers, so if he can do that again, and shoot a little better the Heels should be golden. Tyler Zeller and John Henson dominated Duke's weak interior in the first game and should be able to dominate in this one. I don't expect Duke F Kyle Singler to have as awful a game as he had in February, but the Heels can certainly slow him down. I expect freshman Harrison Barnes to have a much better game this time around, as his confidence is soaring after hitting a game winning shot at Florida State on Wednesday. Like most Carolina/Duke games this will be a knockdown drag out affair and call me biased but I believe Carolina is the better team and will surprise most of the country by winning the ACC regular season crown outright.

Prediction: North Carolina 74, Duke 70

#2 Kansas (28-2, 13-2) at #24 Missouri (22-8, 8-7)

Missouri can't win on the road to save its life, but they are near impossible to beat in the confines of their own home. The Jayhawks blitzed Mizzou in their first meeting in Lawrence, pouring on 103 points in a 17-point rout. I have been burned recently when picking the higher ranked teams to win on the road, so I am changing course this time. An early start time, plus a tough place to play, and Missouri having more incentive to win, equals upset.

Prediction: Missouri 86, Kansas 83

Wyoming (10-19, 3-12) at #3 BYU (27-3, 13-2)

BYU's chance at a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament disappeared about the same time Brandon Davies lost his virginity. With Davies kicked off the team with a groin, the Cougars were destroyed at home by New Mexico. They don't need Davies to beat sorry Wyoming, but this win will provide little consolation.

Prediction: BYU 77, Wyoming 65

#19 Villanova (21-9, 9-8) at #5 Pittsburgh (26-4, 14-3)

Villanova is playing awful and the only thing keeping them afloat in the midst of losing 5 times in 7 games, were cupcakes match-ups with Seton Hall and DePaul. The Wildcats will probably be out of the Top 25 all together after losing to Pitt on Saturday.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 64, Villanova 54

#6 Purdue (25-5, 14-3) at Iowa (10-19, 3-14)

Who is Iowa's coach and why are they so terrible? How the hell did the Spartans lose to them by 20? That's an NCAA tournament team? Iowa has at least been pretty competitive at home against good teams, so maybe they can make this game slightly interesting.

Prediction: Purdue 71, Iowa 60

#7 Notre Dame (24-5, 13-4) at #16 Connecticut (21-8, 9-8)

Steve Lavin will likely win Big East Coach of the Year, but Mike Brey has done a fantastic job with the Irish. The first game was a battle to the finish, with Ben Hansbrough outplaying Kemba Walker. The Huskies have been reeling, especially against upper echelon teams. This is a really tough game to call, as I could see the Irish letting down after such a perfect performance in their last game against Villanova. Basically a coin flip, I'll go with the home-court advantage and UCONN.

Prediction: Connecticut 69, Notre Dame 68

#8 Texas (24-6, 12-3) at Baylor (18-11, 7-8)

Both of these teams are strugg a ling, and Texas has been killing me the last few weeks by losing to teams like Nebraska and Colorado. Baylor has to win this game to keep alive whatever at-large hopes they have, while Texas would prefer to stop reeling and avoid dropping lower than a 2 seed. Baylor G LaceDarius Dunn will have to make an impact, and is coming off an awful game in a loss to Oklahoma State. He torched the Longhorns for 26 points in their first meeting. I will pick another upset but knowing Texas, that means they will win this time.

Prediction: Baylor 69, Texas 64

Colorado State (19-10, 9-6) at #9 San Diego State (28-2, 13-2)

Whatever.

Prediction: San Diego State 73, Colorado State 69

Sunday

#10 Wisconsin (23-6, 13-4) at #1 Ohio State (28-2, 15-2)

Easy game to pick. Ohio State and the crowd will be extra energized in this revenge game. Plus, the Badgers trailed in most of the first meeting and wouldn't have won if Jordan Taylor hadn't gone off at the last minute.

Prediction: Ohio State 80, Wisconsin 67

Last Week: 7-4
Overall: 26-8

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