Friday, March 27, 2009

March Madness (Midwest and South Regions) - Sweet 16 and Elite 8

Last night was a good night for me. I went 4-0 in my picks, Duke got embarrassed, and Memphis proved they were fraudtastic. Tonight, the Sweet Sixteen continues in Indianapolis and Memphis. The Tar Heels take on overrated Gonzaga and hopefully move one step closer to righting the wrongs of the last two years.

Midwest Regional Semi-Final

#12 Arizona (21-13) vs. #1 Louisville (30-5)

Arizona is the last remaining "Cinderella" in the Tournament. There was much discussion over whether they should even be included in the field of 65, but now Zona stands as one of the final 16. Their draw has been favorable thus far, Utah was pretty weak as a 5 seed, and then Cleveland State upset Wake Forest. Now they get to face the overall #1 seed in the Tournament, Louisville. Louisville coach Rick Pitino has never lost a game in the Sweet 16. The Cardinals got all they could handle from Siena in the Second Round and this game doesn't expect to be easy for them either.

The Cardinals are led by their inside play, consisting of Earl Clark, Terrence Williams, and Samardo Samuels. The Cardinals haven't gotten as much publicity as the other #1 seeds, mostly because they are so balanced. They don't have one prolific scorer, they have a lot of guys sharing the load. The Wildcats are a team that has talent but hasn't always lived up to it. This is understandable considering they are on their third coach in two years. F Jordan Hill and C Chase Buddinger are future NBA players, and G Nic Wise is a scoring and assist machine.

I think the Wildcats will hang around for almost all of this game, but down the stretch Louisville will squeak out with a win due to having more depth than Arizona.

Prediction: Louisville 77, Arizona 70

South Regional Semi-Final

#3 Syracuse (28-9) vs. #2 Oklahoma (29-5)

This should be a fantastic game. Syracuse is playing their best basketball of the year right now, as they looked impressive in the Big East Tournament, and then followed that up with wins over Stephen F. Austin and Arizona State in the NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma is considered by many to be one of the top four teams in the nation. Many believe that if Blake Griffin hadn't gone down with a concussion that the Sooners would be a #1 seed.

Much like Louisville, Syracuse has many options on the offensive end but unlike Louisville they have some flashy players. They have a dynamic backcourt led by the man everyone loves to hate, Eric Devendorf, and Jonny Flynn, one of the most exciting players to watch in the country. G Andy Rautins is another threat, as he has been on fire from three point land recently. One area the Orange lack in is defense and that is where the Sooners will look to exploit them. Everyone focuses on Griffin when they play the Sooners but you can't forget about G Willie Warren. There also is Blake's brother Tyler, who doesn't score as much as his brother, but is a good rebounder.

I think this will be one of the most entertaining games in the Tournament. I like the Orange in this one, I think they are riding a wave of momentum and they have more weapons than the Sooners.

Prediction: Syracuse 82, Oklahoma 78

Midwest Regional Semi-Final

#3 Kansas (27-7) vs. #2 Michigan State (28-6)

The defending National Champion Jayhawks take on the Spartans in a rematch from earlier this season. Michigan State won that game in East Lansing, 75-62. The Jayhawks were in a feeling out process then, as they were in the midst of replacing all five starters from their national title team. What they have accomplished this year is truly remarkable and shows even more what a great coach Bill Self is. The Jayhawks are led by G Sherron Collins and C Cole Aldrich. Kansas plays fantastic defense, with Aldrich taking up a lot of space in the middle of the floor. Depth is also a strength for Kansas, as a lot of guys get minutes and a chance to contribute.

Michigan State got quite a battle from USC in the Second Round, and should be ready for even more of a challenge in this one. G Kalin Lucas is the Spartans leading scorer, but it is important for them that they get quality play out of F Raymar Morgan.

If this game plays out like the first one, where Lucas and Morgan dominate for Michigan State then it will be the same result. Kansas has to slow down Morgan, Aldrich needs to limit C Goran Suton's scoring and rebounding opportunities. I feel like Kansas has been way ahead of schedule this year and that inexperience will finally catch up to them here.

Prediction: Michigan State 67, Kansas 63

South Regional Semi-Final

#4 Gonzaga (28-5) vs. #1 North Carolina (30-4)

I think what we saw with Memphis last night is what we will see with Gonzaga tonight. A team that inflated its record from playing in a sorry conference that won't be able to hang with the big boys. If Western Kentucky had decided to play defense on that last possession than Gonzaga probably wouldn't even be in this game. Now don't get me wrong, the Zags have a talented team. Their forwards Josh Shrooms and Austin Daye are good players, as are their guards Matt Bouldin and Jeremy Pargo. However, to beat the Tar Heels you need great players. Gonzaga plays great defense but as we saw with Memphis, maybe that great defense has more been a product of who they have played. I guarantee the Zags haven't faced an offense anywhere near the speed of Carolina's.

I was down on Carolina a week ago, mostly because Ty Lawson's toe injury seemed much more serious than I originally thought. Against LSU in the first half it looked like Lawson wasn't ready to play. Something switched in the second half though, as Lawson looked completely healthy and carried Carolina to victory. A healthy Lawson equals championship for the Heels, if Lawson can stay healthy I don't think their is a better team in the country.

I think Lawson will shred Gonzaga tonight, I also expect Tyler Hansbrough to play well, and Wayne Ellington to continue his torrid streak of shooting. Tar......Heels!!!!

Prediction: North Carolina 88, Gonzaga 72

On Sunday, I think Louisville will get past Michigan State, preventing the Spartans from having homecourt advantage in Detroit in the Final Four. With Lawson looking good I expect Carolina to just barely beat Syracuse in a classic game, leaving us with a Final Four of Connecticut, Villanova, Louisville, and the ACC's Carolina crashing the Big East party.

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