The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round

The playoffs are here! Teams have fought through the grind of a 16 game season and now just the 12 best teams are left standing. Three of the eight teams playing in Wild Card weekend are led by rookie signal callers. For the second straight season the Wild Card round will feature a game between rookie quarterbacks when RG3 leads the Redskins against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Christian Ponder and Matt Schaub aren't rookies but both will be making their playoff debuts. Andy Dalton of Cincinnati will be making his second career playoff start, while this is old hat for Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and Baltimore's Joe Flacco.


AFC Wild Card: #6 Cincinnati (10-6) at #3 Houston (12-4), Houston favored by 4 1/2

It's the rematch from last year that no one was clamoring for! Circumstances are a bit different this time but for the second straight year, the Bengals travel to Houston to take on the Texans in the Wild Card Round. This time the Texans will have Matt Schaub under center, although not having him last year didn't seem to matter when they crushed Cincinnati. The story from that game was the complete dominance of the Texans DE J.J. Watt. Watt completely turned the momentum of the game when he intercepted a Dalton pass and returned it for a touchdown. Watt will need to have a similar type of game as the Texans defense has struggled badly to close the year and could use a spark. The Bengals offense is serviceable but that isn't what they rely on to win games. The misnomer coming into this game is likely that the Texans are better defensively than Cincinnati, but the stats don't bear that out. The Bengals have a fearsome pass rush led by DT Geno Atkins and DE Michael Johnson and as a team finished third in the league in sacks. They are also very strong against the pass, which is key because the Texans are a strong passing team. Besides having one of the best wide receivers in football in Andre Johnson and a solid TE in Owen Daniels, what also helps the Texans pass game is RB Arian Foster. Foster had another impressive season, rushing for 1,424 yards and 15 TDs. The Bengals weren't able to slow Foster last year and that was one of the many reasons they got blown out. As I mentioned above while not dynamic, Cincinnati has some nice pieces on offense, most notably WR A.J. Green. The Texans pass defense is a weakness so Dalton will look to expose that with Green and his second favorite target TE Jermaine Gresham. They will give RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis his carries but with him averaging under 4 yards a carry this year and the Texans being tough against the run, it doesn't seem likely for him to have much of an impact. The Bengals were a terrific road team this season, going 6-2. They come into this game playing their best football, going 7-1 in the second half of the season after a 3-5 start. The Texans are exact opposites. They are playing their worst football of the season right now and it seems hard to imagine that they can just simply turn it on. I think the embarrassment of last year will serve Cincinnati well in this game and they will come out looking much more ready to play. I like Cincinnati to win their first playoff game in over 20 years, and complete the Texans shocking collapse.

Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Houston 20


NFC Wild Card: #6 Minnesota (10-6) at #3 Green Bay (11-5), Green Bay favored by 8

Last weekend the Vikings won a classic game at home against Green Bay to get themselves into the playoffs. The game was highlighted by the fantastic running of Adrian Peterson, who broke the 2,000 yard barrier and came just 9 yards short of Eric Dickerson's all-time rushing record. What might have gotten lost was how well Christian Ponder performed. Without Ponder playing at the level he did, the Vikings would have lost, even with Peterson's heroics. Ponder hasn't been a model of consistency and for the many reasons people aren't giving Minnesota a chance in this game, Ponder playing well for a second straight week seems to be people's go to. The Vikings will have to get another outstanding effort from Peterson, but that is likely the least of their concerns. For the Packers it is all about Aaron Rodgers. They have no running game to speak of and don't even really try to hide it. For what feels like the first time in forever, Rodgers should have his full complement of weapons with Randall Cobb returning after missing last week's game. Greg Jennings, and Jordy Nelson are finally healthy, add James Jones and Jermichael Finley to that list and the amount of weapons Rodgers has is ridiculous. The Vikings did a nice job of getting pressure on Rodgers last week, and as always the player to watch defensively for Minnesota will be DE Jared Allen. The Packers got some good news of their own on the defensive end as S Charles Woodson is expected to play for the first time since Week 7. The Packers were lit up in the air by Ponder last weekend so any extra help they can get will be useful to them. People forget, but the first time these teams played this year in Lambeau the Vikings controlled the bulk of the game. It was a costly red zone interception by Ponder that completely turned things and led to the Packers victory. Also, the Packers have lost four of their last six home playoff games so Lambeau Field isn't quite the intimidating place to play as some might believe. All that being said, asking the Vikings to beat Green Bay two weeks in a row is quite a bit. Also, expecting Christian Ponder to play at the level he did last weekend seems unrealistic. I think the Vikings can keep it close, but won't be able to do enough to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Green Bay 28, Minnesota 21


AFC Wild Card: #5 Indianapolis (11-5) at #4 Baltimore (10-6), Baltimore favored by 6 1/2

This game will be filled with emotion. Their will be emotion from the fans as they have a special place in their hearts for hating Indianapolis. Of course, that is because the Indianapolis Colts used to be the Baltimore Colts. The Colts will be emotional, not just because for a lot of their players this will be their first playoff game, but also because of coach Chuck Pagano being back. The Ravens will be emotional as LB Ray Lewis announced his retirement earlier this week and in all likelihood this will be his last home game of his career. That emotion will shine through for a little bit but then the game will start and all of that goes out the window. Neither team is known for their defense, something that almost seems blasphemous to say when it comes to the Ravens, but its true. Baltimore was 17th against the pass this season and 20th against the run. The good news for the Ravens is that for the first time this season they expect to have Lewis, LB Terrell Suggs and S Bernard Pollard all on the field at the same time. With the decline of their defense that has increased the pressure on Joe Flacco which has had mixed results. Flacco didn't play well enough to allow Cam Cameron to keep his job as offensive coordinator but he wasn't terrible either. Flacco has some solid weapons in Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith but one of the things that ran Cameron out of town was his penchant for forgetting he had RB Ray Rice. Rice is small which is perhaps why Cameron didn't want to rely on him too much, but he is a game changer when he has the ball in his hands. The Colts defense will need to get pressure on Flacco and still has old reliables Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. They aren't quite the pass rushers they use to be, but still are pretty damn good. Andrew Luck has received a ton of hype and praise for the Colts turn around. He has played well for a rookie and at least recently has avoided throwing the interceptions that plagued him most of the season. But still, he is not accurate and is not quite the strength of the team he has been made out to be. People say he doesn't have a running game but that is because Bruce Arians has chosen to ride Luck's back. Vick Ballard their leading rusher averaged almost 4 yards a carry when given a chance. WR Reggie Wayne had a career resurgence this year and rookie T.Y. Hilton has come out of nowhere to have a very strong season. I think this will be the highest scoring game of the weekend and I was tempted to take the Colts with Baltimore struggling. However, I think it can't be understated that this is Luck's first playoff start and things will be overwhelming to him. I expect him to throw a few interceptions. I also expect the much maligned Flacco to play well, as the playoffs are nothing new to him. In fact, this is the 5th straight season he will be starting a playoff game. Flacco will play better and smarter than Luck and that will be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Baltimore 30, Indianapolis 24


NFC Wild Card: #5 Seattle (11-5) at #4 Washington (10-6), Seattle favored by 3

Saving the best for last, Seattle at Washington is the best game of Wild Card weekend. It features the two hottest teams in the NFC. The Skins have won seven straight games while the Seahawks have won five in a row. Forget Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson is the one who should be in conversation with RG3 for rookie of the year. Wilson tied a rookie record with 26 passing TDs and during the Seahawks winning streak he has thrown 9 TDs versus just 2 INTs. He is terrific at throwing on the run and can be near impossible to catch at times. He is also helped by the beast he has at running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch has gone over 100 yards in four straight games but will be tested by the Skins rushing defense that finished fifth in the league. What Lynch does in this game will be the key because if Washington slows him down that will put all the pressure on Wilson. You have to think the Skins will key in on Lynch and trust their passing defense. The pass defense finished 30th but has played much better of late, highlighted by a strong performance against Dallas last weekend. The Seahawks also don't have any wide receivers that really scare you. Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin have been serviceable but the Skins have shut down better receivers in recent weeks. The Seattle defense has been highly touted all season and with good reason. CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner are perhaps the best cornerback duo in the league and will make things tough for Skins receivers Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan. The Skins have other weapons at receiver and maybe Santana Moss could find some openings with Browner and Sherman keyed in on others. RG3 still doesn't appear to be 100% from his knee injury and had his worse passing game of the season last week. Thankfully, RB Alfred Morris and the Skins rushing attack were there to pick up the slack. Morris will be called upon again this weekend to carry the load and watching him match up with Seattle's physical defense will be fun. If you matched these teams up side by side they are pretty close, but Seattle would likely get the edge because of how much better their defense is than Washington's. What tilts things to me is that the game will be in Washington and Seattle struggled most of the season on the road. They did win their final two road games but this is a team that is far more dangerous in Seattle than elsewhere. They sort of remind me of the Saints from last year in that regard. Any Skins fan knows that this game will come down to the final few plays and will be a nail biter. I think the Skins will win in the most dramatic fashion possible, with Kai Forbath kicking a game winning field goal as time expires.

Prediction: Washington 23, Seattle 20


Last Week Against the Spread: 7-9
Overall Against the Spread: 119-130-7

Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 166-89-1

Cram Session - Bowl Edition

As expected last nights Sugar Bowl was a rout. However, what wasn't expected was Louisville being the ones to put the beat down on Florida. Louisville dominated the game from the start and made the Gators look really bad. Tonight's Fiesta Bowl between Oregon and Kansas State is the most anticipated of the BCS bowls outside of the national championship game. Both these teams were in contention all year for a national title game appearance. After Florida's embarrassing performance last night, this game pits the two best teams in the country besides Alabama and Notre Dame.

Fiesta Bowl

#4 Oregon (11-1) vs. #5 Kansas State (11-1), in Tempe, Arizona

Both of these teams are mostly known for their amazing offenses. The Ducks quick fire offense led by freshman QB Marcus Mariota (30 TDs, 6 INTs), and RB Kenjon Barner (1,624 yards rushing, 21 TDs),  and dual threat RB De'Anthony Thomas (686 yards rushing, 11 TDs) averaged an astounding 50.8 points per game. The Wildcats weren't too far behind them, averaging 40.7 points per game led by Heisman finalist QB Colin Klein. Klein isn't known for his passing prowess with just 15 TDs versus 7 INTs, but he is an elite runner. He finished second on the Wildcats with 890 yards rushing and led the team with 22 rushing TDs. Klein gets all the pub but RB John Hubert led the Wildcats with 892 yards rushing this season. So as you can see, plenty of offensive firepower. But what often is overlooked with these teams is that they are both pretty good defensively. The Ducks gave up just 22 points per game and were led by their two best defensive players, LB Dion Jordan and CB Ifo Ekpre-Olumu, who has a penchant for forcing fumbles. Kansas State was just a little better, giving up 21.1 points per game this season. Their defense features the Big 12 defensive player of the year and second team All-American, Arthur Brown. The Wildcats were strong against the run most of the season, save for their one loss this year to Baylor. The Bears gashed them on the ground and the Wildcats didn't know what hit them. Kansas State has to limit Barner and Thomas' big play abilities to keep Kansas State in this game. Even if they are successful with that, Mariota could gash them through the air. One area I worry about for the Ducks is the distractions that might be caused by their coach Chip Kelly's name being attached to so many potential NFL openings. The Stanford Cardinal faced the same thing a few years ago with Jim Harbaugh and were fine, so it should be nothing. The Wildcats are coached by one of the best coaches in college football history, Bill Snyder. With him on the sideline, Kansas State has a chance in any game. With two defenses that are pretty evenly matched, I don't think Kansas State has the offensive firepower to keep up with Oregon. Oregon's offense was slowed just once this season, in their loss to Stanford. The Wildcats are good on defense, and I don't think Oregon will hang 50 on them, but I don't believe they are good enough to keep Oregon under 30. This should be an entertaining game from start to finish, with the Ducks eventually prevailing.

Prediction: Oregon 37, Kansas State 28

Overall Record: 105-25

The Hail Mary - Looking Back

I put a lot of time and effort into my NFL previews back in August so I thought it would be fun to take a look back and see how I did.


NFC East (My Predictions)

1. *Philadelphia 10-6, 2. New York Giants 9-7, 3. Dallas 7-9, 4. Washington 6-10

NFC East (Actual Results)

1. *Washington 10-6, 2. New York Giants 9-7, 3. Dallas 8-8, 4. Philadelphia 4-12

The Verdict: Like everyone else I was way off on Philadelphia. Nailed the Giants record and them missing the playoffs, basically got Dallas right, and was happy to be wrong about Washington.


NFC North (My Predictions)

1. *Green Bay 12-4, 2. *Detroit 10-6, 3. Chicago 9-7, 4. Minnesota 6-10

NFC North (Actual Results)

1. *Green Bay 11-5, 2. *Minnesota 10-6, 3. Chicago 10-6, 4. Detroit 4-12

The Verdict: Spot on with Green Bay as if they hadn't been screwed in Seattle they would have gone 12-4. Was almost exactly right about Chicago, while missing badly on Detroit and Minnesota. That'll teach me for ever having faith in the sorry Lions.


NFC South (My Predictions)

1. *New Orleans 10-6, 2. *Carolina 9-7, 3. Atlanta 8-8, 4. Tampa Bay 4-12

NFC South (Actual Results)

1. *Atlanta 13-3, 2. Carolina 7-9, 3. New Orleans 7-9, 4. Tampa Bay 7-9

The Verdict: Knew the whole Bountygate fiasco would have an effect on the Saints but underestimated it. Carolina disappointed many people. The Falcons proved me wrong although many still doubt if they are as good as their record indicates. Tampa was better than I thought but still ended up in last.


NFC West (My Predictions)

1. *San Francisco 11-5, 2. Seattle 7-9, 3. Arizona 6-10, 4. St. Louis 4-12

NFC West (Actual Results)

1. *San Francisco 11-4-1, 2. *Seattle 11-5, 3. St. Louis 7-8-1, 4. Arizona 5-11

The Verdict: Pretty much nailed the 49ers, and severely underrated Seattle. Pretty much got Arizona right, while Jeff Fisher improved the Rams sooner than I expected.


In the NFC I correctly predicted 2 (Green Bay, San Francisco) out of the 6 playoff teams. Green Bay and San Francisco could meet up in the playoffs as I predicted, however it would be in the Divisional Round instead of the NFC Championship. My pick of the Packers to represent the NFC still remains in play.


AFC East (My Predictions)

1. *New England 11-5, 2. Buffalo 9-7, 3. New York Jets 6-10, 4. Miami 6-10

AFC East (Actual Results)

1. *New England 12-4, 2. Miami 7-9, 3. New York Jets 6-10, 4. Buffalo 6-10

The Verdict: Basically nailed New England, gave too much credence to the Bills additions on defense, and basically called the Jets and Dolphins seasons.


AFC North (My Predictions)

1. *Pittsburgh 11-5, 2. *Baltimore 10-6, 3. Cincinnati 7-9, 4. Cleveland 3-13

AFC North (Actual Results)

1. *Baltimore 10-6, 2. *Cincinnati 10-6, 3. Pittsburgh 8-8, 4. Cleveland 5-11

The Verdict: Pittsburgh's season might have been different had Roethlisberger remained healthy all season. Guessed the Ravens record correctly, while the Bengals proved me wrong. The Brows were bad but not as terrible as I suspected.


AFC South (My Predictions)

1. *Tennessee 9-7, 2. Houston 9-7, 3. Indianapolis 7-9, 4. Jacksonville 4-12

 AFC South (Actual Results)

1. *Houston 12-4, 2. *Indianapolis 11-5, 3. Tennessee 6-10, 4. Jacksonville 2-14

The Verdict: Took a risk predicting the Titans would win the South and it backfired. Houston lived up to their preseason hype, while the Titans stunk. I figured the Colts would be much improved but never would have guessed 11 wins. I actually gave the Jags too much credit with a 4 win prediction.


AFC West (My Predictions)

1. *Denver 10-6, 2. *San Diego 10-6, 3. Kansas City 8-8, 4. Oakland 5-11

AFC West (Actual Results)

1. *Denver 13-3, 2. San Diego 7-9, 3. Oakland 4-12, 4. Kansas City 2-14

The Verdict: The AFC West was putrid. People should keep that in mind while picking Denver to win the Super Bowl. I underestimated how good Manning would make Denver. I swore last year to never pick San Diego to make the playoffs again as long as Norv was coach and should have listened to myself. I also was down on Kansas City but read enough people hyping them that I at least predicted a .500 season, boy was I wrong. Pretty much spot on with my prediction for it to be a long season in Oakland.


In the AFC I correctly predicted 3 (New England, Denver, Baltimore) of the 6 playoff teams. My AFC Championship game prediction of Denver and New England still remains possible, as does my pick of New England representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Before the season I predicted the Packers to defeat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. The fan in me doesn't want that to happen, but my preseason prediction for the Super Bowl remains very much in play.

Cram Session - Bowl Edition

The BCS bowls got off to a slow start yesterday. Wisconsin/Stanford was mostly unwatchable and boring, while as expected Florida State received little resistance from Northern Illinois. Tonight, the Sugar Bowl takes center stage as the two touchdown underdog Louisville Cardinal try to make things interesting against the Florida Gators.

Sugar Bowl

#21 Louisville (10-2) vs. #3 Florida (11-1), in New Orleans, Louisiana

Let's be honest, no one is giving Louisville a chance in hell of winning this game. Despite being in the Big East, a BCS conference, they somehow went the entire season without playing a ranked team. People rightfully think very little of the Big East, which in 2014 will no longer have a reserved seat at the table and may not even exist. There are two things that give the Cardinals a sliver of hope tonight in New Orleans. Their head coach and former Florida defensive coordinator Charlie Strong, and their quarterback, the man with a great football name, Teddy Bridgewater. Strong is one of the most respected coaches in the business and surprised many by choosing to stay at Louisville during the recent coaching carousel. His Florida ties can be seen all over the Cardinals roster, as a  lot of their players are from Florida. Bridgewater was excellent this season, throwing 25 TDs and just 7 INTs with an otherworldly completion percentage of 69%. Bridgewater's favorite target is WR DeVante Parker. Parker led the Cardinals with 9 touchdowns and has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games. WR Damian Coepland led the team in catches this season with 48. Bridgewater hasn't seen a defense like Florida's all year so he will need to get plenty of help from leading rusher Jeremy Wright. Wright's numbers fell off a cliff when his backfield mate, Senorise Perry was lost for the season. In his last three games he has rushed for just 89 yards on 48 carries. He will have to do way more and find holes somewhere for the Cardinals to have a chance tonight. The Gators surprising season was all about their defense. They allowed just 12.9 points per game, giving up just 5 passing touchdowns this season, while intercepting opposing quarterbacks 19 times. Safety Matt Elam is the player to watch on the Gators defense and expect to hear his name multiple times tonight. Led by QB Jeff Driskell, the Gators are pretty terrible at throwing the ball but boast a potent rushing attack. Driskell can break off some big runs himself, but the power back is senior Mike Gillislee. Gillislee had his most impressive performance in the season finale at Florida State. Against the Seminoles stout defense he ran for 140 yards and 2 TDs in the Gators win. The Cardinals were a respectful 52nd against the run this season. The Gators make their game plan pretty clear and only pass when they have to. If Gillislee gets going then the Cardinals will be at the mercy of the Gators offense. In order to be successful against the Florida defense you have to have multiple dynamic players. Bridgewater alone won't be enough for Louisville and because of that the Gators should have their way.

Prediction: Florida 34, Louisville 17

Overall Record: 105-24

Cram Session - Bowl Edition

Whether you have noticed it or not there have been plenty of bowl games happening over the last two weeks. Now I can't really blame you if the Belk Bowl or the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl don't get you excited. However, starting tomorrow on New Year's Day the action begins to pick up as the BCS bowls begin and ranked teams face off in other bowl matchups. For the Bowl Edition of Cram Session I will be previewing and predicting the Cornhuskers Capital One Bowl game, the BCS games (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta), and next week's National Championship game between Notre Dame and Alabama.


Capital One Bowl

#7 Georgia (11-2) vs. #16 Nebraska (10-3) in Orlando, Florida

You could call this the runner-up bowl as both Georgia and Nebraska had to settle for appearances in this game after losing in their conference championship games. At least the Bulldogs showed up for their game and gave Alabama all they could handle. The Cornhuskers were thoroughly embarrassed by Wisconsin and basically helped Bret Bielema land the Arkansas job. A signature win has eluded Bo Pelini during his time in Lincoln, and while Huskers fans were hoping for a Big Ten championship, a win over an SEC power like Georgia would give Nebraska fans great hope going into 2013. The Huskers maligned defense will have its work cut out for them against a Bulldogs attack that is proficient both throwing and running. QB Aaron Murray had an outstanding season for Georgia and there are rumors this could be his final collegiate game before turning pro. What's even more impressive about Murray's play is he doesn't have any real elite receivers to throw the ball to. He has some good ones that he spreads it around to, including Tavarres King, who gashed the Crimson Tide and led the Bulldogs in receiving touchdowns this season, and Malcolm Mitchell. More concerning for Nebraska is the Bulldogs running game, led by Freshman Todd Gurley. Gurley scored 16 TDs this season, rushed for 1,260 yards and went over 100 yards in 8 of the Bulldogs 12 games. He gets spotted by Keith Marshall, who averaged 6.6 yards per carry. The Huskers defense will have to play its best game of the season to keep things competitive with Georgia. Husker QB Taylor Martinez had his best season throwing the ball, but will have his work cut out for him against the blazing fast Bulldogs defense. Luckily for him Georgia is without John Jenkins, however, the potential number one pick in the draft and SEC Player of the Year LB Jarvis Jones will be in action. Martinez should be helped by having his full complement of running backs, including senior Rex Burkhead who battled injuries all season. It will be up to Burkhead and Ameer Abdullah to get the ground game going and take some pressure off Martinez. Martinez has shown that he can still be a turnover machine when the game is placed in his hands. Martinez will also need his top receiver Kenny Bell to make some plays. Bell has disappeared in the last two games, catching just 2 passes for 14 yards. I think Nebraska should be plenty motivated to get the bad taste out of their mouths from the Big Ten title game. However, I think talent wise they are far behind Georgia, and they can't make the Herculean effort necessary to win this game. The defense has not shown the ability to stop a good offense, and the Huskers will have trouble scoring on the Bulldogs stout defense.

Prediction: Georgia 38, Nebraska 21

Rose Bowl

Wisconsin (8-5) vs. #6 Stanford (11-2) in Pasadena, California

If you like power football this will be the game for you to watch. Both of these teams pass because they have to but win games on the backs of their rushing attacks. Usually you talk about a quarterback battle to watch but in this game it will be running back vs. running back. For the Badgers you have record setting running back Montee Ball going against the Cardinal's Stepfan Taylor. Ball saw his numbers dip in his senior year, but it was still good enough for him to have 21 TDs and 1,730 yards rushing. Pretty incredible to say he almost had a down year, compared to his ridiculous junior season. He sometimes gets lost in the shuffle because of Ball but the Badgers also have James White, who shredded Nebraska for 4 TDs in the Badgers Big Ten title win. For Stanford, Taylor saw his carries increase a ton, as the Cardinal became a running team with the departure of Andrew Luck and inconsistent quarterback play for most of the season. Stanford has not lost since Freshman QB Kevin Hogan took over, throwing 9 TDs against just 3 INTs in 6 games this year. Picking up where Coby Fleener left off, TE Zach Ertz has become the number one receiving target with 66 catches and 6 TDs. The Badgers are on their third quarterback this season, and now roll with senior Curt Phillips. Phillips isn't asked to do a ton, but he has capably managed games since he got the nod, throwing 4 TDs and just one interception in his four starts. To go with their strong rushing attacks, each team has tough defenses, both of which were Top 20 in the NCAA in points allowed. The other subplot to this game is with Bielema's departure, Wisconsin will be coached by their athletic director and legendary coach Barry Alvarez. Perhaps that is why despite having just 8 wins, the Badgers are only six point underdogs to Stanford. Also, Alvarez is 3-0 in the Rose Bowl, while Bielema lost both of his appearances. That is all well and good but this Stanford defense his Badgers will be facing is legit and isn't going to fall for the gimmick runs Wisconsin unleashed on Nebraska. I have more faith in Hogan than I do in Phillips at quarterback and with the running backs basically being a wash, that will give Stanford the edge to get the win.

Prediction: Stanford 27, Wisconsin 20

Orange Bowl

#15 Northern Illinois (12-1) vs. #12 Florida State (11-2) in Miami, Florida

Some MACtion has crashed the BCS this year, as Northern Illinois parlayed an undefeated conference record into a BCS bid. This left some people apoplectic, such as Kirk Herbstreit who couldn't believe that the Orange Bowl, home of such legendary matchups as Louisville vs. Wake Forest and Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech, would have to degrade itself to include Northern Illinois. Then there is Florida State, which was probably happy because this game fit in well with the rest of their schedule of playing nobodies. Now I confess to not having watched a single second of Northern Illinois football this year but it appears that on offense they are a two man team. They are led by QB Jordan Lynch, who threw for 2,962 yards and 24 touchdowns, while also rushing for 1,771 yards and 19 touchdowns. He completed 63% of his passes with a 8.4 yards per attempt average so he seems to be quite the threat. His favorite target is WR Martel Moore, who had 71 catches and 12 TDs this season. The Huskies were also strong defensively, allowing just 19 points per game, good enough for 18th in the country. Most of you are a little more familiar with the Seminoles, especially QB EJ Manuel who will be playing his final game at Florida State. Manuel is extremely accurate but can get sloppy with ball at times and throw a costly interception. The Seminoles don't run the ball all that much and mostly rely on WR Rashad Greene to make plays. The Huskies lone loss this season was to a terrible Iowa team that couldn't even make one of the 500 bowls. Now, to be fair that was way back in September, but the Huskies most impressive out of conference win came against Army. What I am trying to say is they probably aren't ready for the avalanche in talent that will be coming at them from Florida State. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Florida State is all that great, as Florida basically exposed them as frauds, but they are well above teams like Central Michigan or Kent State. I don't expect to see a Boise State/Oklahoma type game, I more expect to see a Hawaii/Georgia type of affair. The Huskies may hang around for a quarter but will be all downhill from there.

Prediction: Florida State 42, Northern Illinois 17

Overall Record: 102-24

The Hail Mary - Week 17

There are some big games this Sunday as the NFL closes out the 2012 regular season. The Minnesota Vikings are battling for a playoff spot as they host the Green Bay Packers. The Chicago Bears and New York Giants have must win games. The Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, and New England Patriots all are still trying to claim home field advantage in the AFC playoffs.  But no game is bigger than this Sunday night's game at FedEx Field between the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys, with the winner earning the NFC East title. For Dallas, if they lose they miss the playoffs entirely. Come 830, the Skins will know if its a win or die proposition for them. If the Bears and Vikings both lose then the Skins will be in the playoffs regardless. However, if one of those teams wins, they will have to beat the Cowboys to make the playoffs. The stakes already make this a huge game but adding on top of that the Redskins/Cowboys long standing rivalry and it makes the game feel like a huge event. Ticket prices have skyrocketed and there is a buzz around DC and the Skins that hasn't been seen in years. The Skins have won 6 straight, while Dallas has won 5 of their last 7. The Cowboys have perhaps the hottest player in football, WR Dez Bryant, who will be licking his chops going up against a porous Skins secondary. The Skins have one of the most potent offenses in the league, led by rookies RG3 and Alfred Morris, along with fantastic free agent signing Pierre Garcon. Skins fans are optimistic but cautiously so. The last 20 years have not been kind to Skins fans, and when you haven't won a division title in 13 years, it is normal for fans to expect the worst. It should be a hell of a battle and is a must see game on Sunday night.


Sunday, December 30

Philadelphia (4-11) at New York Giants (8-7), New York Giants favored by 7 1/2

The Giants have to beat the Eagles then hope that the Vikings, Bears, and Cowboys all lose to get themselves into the playoffs to defend their championship. On paper you would think that them beating the Eagles would be easy, but Philly will have both LaSean McCoy and Michael Vick back in the lineup. Plus, the Giants can't take anyone lightly with how crappy they have played the last two weeks. I think it is obvious that the Giants are trending downward, and they won't be able to quickly right the ship on Sunday. I like Philly to pull off the upset, and lead to a lot of soul searching for the Giants this off-season.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, New York Giants 20

Tampa Bay (6-9) at Atlanta (13-2), No Line

For the Falcons this game is about just staying healthy so I wouldn't expect their starters to play the entire game. Even with their backups they should still beat Tampa Bay, losers of five straight, as they are collapsing at the end of the season for a second straight year.

Prediction: Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 20

New York Jets (6-9) at Buffalo (5-10), Buffalo favored by 3 1/2

For some reason people care about who will start at quarterback for the Jets in a game that means absolutely nothing. Mark Sanchez is back as the starter as Greg McElroy is out with a concussion. The Bills have basically quit on Chan Gailey, so I expect the Jets to finish a season sweep of the Bills.

Prediction: New York Jets 22, Buffalo 19

Baltimore (10-5) at Cincinnati (9-6), Cincinnati favored by 3

Had the Ravens lost to New York last week this game could have been for the division title. Instead, not much is on the line, as the Bengals are locked in as the sixth seed for the second straight year. The Ravens could possibly move up to the third seed with a win and a Patriots loss, but that doesn't really make that much of a difference. The Bengals finally won a tough game, and I expect the confidence of this young team to be sky high. Because of that, and because of the Ravens recent struggles, I like Cincinnati to get revenge for their Week 1 shellacking from Baltimore.

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Baltimore 16

Chicago (9-6) at Detroit (4-11), Chicago favored by 3 1/2

The Bears must win and then cheer for their arch rival, the Packers to defeat Minnesota later in the day. The Lions have the best passing attack in the league, but for some reason can hardly ever find the end zone that way. Stafford hasn't thrown a TD in his past two games despite passing for over 500 yards. Stafford has just 17 TDs and has regressed badly after his breakout season last year. Calvin Johnson set the single season receiving yards record last week against Atlanta. Now he looks to become the first ever receiver to break the 2,000 yard barrier. Johnson needs just 108 yards so it is definitely within reach. Even with Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, the Bears have one of the worst passing attacks in the league. Because of that, they definitely need Matt Forte to play through his injury, especially with his backup Michael Bush already out for the season. I am tempted to take Lions but then remember that they have lost seven straight games and suck.

Prediction: Chicago 21, Detroit 17

Jacksonville (2-13) at Tennessee (5-10), Tennessee favored by 4

This might be Mike Munchak's swan song after a very disappointing year for the Titans. I think owner Bud Adams read my blog and saw that I picked Tennessee to win the AFC South, so a 6-10 season will be completely unacceptable. For the Jaguars this will be their last game before the probable Tim Tebow era starts next season.

Prediction: Tennessee 28, Jacksonville 21

Houston (12-3) at Indianapolis (10-5), Houston favored by 7

The Texans must win to guarantee home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A loss could and wins by the Broncos and Patriots would drop them to third, losing them a first round bye. For the Colts, they are locked in as the 5 seed, but they will be motivated by the return of head coach Chuck Pagano. Both teams will be highly motivated which should mean a very competitive game. Because of the emotions behind Pagano returning I think about taking the Colts, but feel like the Texans desperation to hold on to home field will win out. You know that over hyped Andrew Luck is good for a few turnovers, and that will prove to be the difference.

Prediction: Houston 35, Indianapolis 30

Carolina (6-9) at New Orleans (7-8), New Orleans favored by 5 1/2

These teams meet in the disappointing seasons bowl. Both caught fire towards the end of the year, but slow starts were too much to overcome.

Prediction: New Orleans 36, Carolina 24

Cleveland (5-10) at Pittsburgh (7-8), No Line

Speaking of disappointing seasons, the Steelers finish off their first non winning season since 2006. This might be coach Pat Shurmur's swan song and with Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy both hurting some scrub third stringer who I am too lazy to look up might start for the Browns. This season has already been bad enough for Pittsburgh, if they add getting swept by the Browns to it, Pittsburgh would become apoplectic.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 23, Cleveland 10

Arizona (5-10) at San Francisco (10-4-1), San Francisco favored by 16 1/2

Last weekend's butt whooping at the hands of the Seahawks was quite depressing to watch. The 49ers looked completely over matched and outclassed. Colin Kaepernick appeared overwhelmed by the crowd noise and it was the first time I wondered if Alex Smith would have performed better in that environment. Don't get me wrong, I am still all about keeping Kap at quarterback. Missing Justin Smith on the defensive end was huge. He tore his triceps against New England and will sit out his second straight game. The Niners are hoping he can play in the playoffs but it is doubtful he will be the impact player the Niners have grown accustomed to. San Francisco can clinch the division as long as they can stop Brian Hoyer and the bumbling Cardinals offense. They will be watching the score of Green Bay/Minnesota and rooting for the Vikings to win, so that San Francisco can earn a first round bye. Anything less than a blowout of the Cardinals will be highly disappointing and cause for concern.

Prediction: San Francisco 23, Arizona 6

Miami (7-8) at New England (11-4), New England favored by 10

The Patriots had a ton of trouble with Jacksonville, and seem to be struggling a bit heading into the playoffs. Despite all that, they actually have a chance at earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They would have to win and hope for losses by the Texans and Broncos. The Broncos losing to the Chiefs seems impossible, so the more likely scenario is that they can move ahead of Houston for a first round bye. Miami is hoping to finish off a .500 season with first year coach Joe Philbin and first year quarterback Ryan Tannehill. This could also be Reggie Bush's last game as a Dolphin, as his contract is up after this game. I hope they bring Reggie back, like he showed last week against Buffalo, when the coaches have made sure he gets the touches, he produces.

Prediction: New England 27, Miami 21

Green Bay (11-4) at Minnesota (9-6), Green Bay favored by 3 1/2

Tons of storylines in this game, making it the second most intriguing game of the weekend. The Packers have plenty to play for, as a win guarantees them a first round bye, while a loss more than likely means they will have to play next weekend. For the Vikings, they control their own destiny, a win guarantees them the sixth seed, while a loss throws everything into chaos. There is also the Adrian Peterson watch. Peterson is just 102 yards away from reaching the 2,000 yard mark for the season. Catching Eric Dickerson's all time single season rushing yardage record is still a remote possibility but not likely. Peterson will have to come up huge like he did against Green Bay the first time for Minnesota to have a chance. QB Christian Ponder has been better the last few weeks but still can't be trusted. Without his poor play in Lambeau, the Vikings had control of the Packers in Lambeau and might have won the game. The Vikings defense has also quietly been a strength this season and had one of their strongest performances in last week's win at Houston. The Green Bay offense has been up and down this season, but they are coming off a 55 point explosion last weekend. The Vikings crowd will be a great advantage for Minnesota and to me will be the difference in this game. This game will really come down to whether or not Ponder can manage it and avoid costly interceptions and turnovers.

Prediction: Minnesota 25, Green Bay 22

Kansas City (2-13) at Denver (12-3), Denver favored by 16

By time the game starts the Broncos will know if they still have a chance at earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Even if that isn't attainable, they will still be motivated to get the victory and hold on to a first round bye. For the Chiefs, this dreadful season can't end soon enough. Despite just 2 wins, they managed to have 5 Pro Bowlers, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

Prediction: Denver 29, Kansas City 14

Oakland (4-11) at San Diego (6-9), No Line

Goodbye to the Norv Turner as head coach era. He can now enjoy the rest of his career as an offensive coordinator, something he actually does well.

Prediction: San Diego 17, Oakland 10

St. Louis (7-7-1) at Seattle (10-5), Seattle favored by 10 1/2

The Seahawks are on fire, averaging 50 points a game in their last three games. 50! The Rams have made a point of talking about this game being important as they want to finish over .500 and also go undefeated in the division. A great goal to have, and while they seemed to befuddle the 49ers this season, I don't think they have the chops to beat the scorching hot Seahawks in Seattle. Russell Wilson can't be stopped lately, and either can "Beast Mode" Marshawn Lynch.

Prediction: Seattle 30, St. Louis 16

Dallas (8-7) at Washington (9-6), Washington favored by 3

When these teams played on Thanksgiving it was a shootout, with the Skins jumping out to a big lead early and then hanging on. I expect another high scoring contest Sunday night. I had questions about how Washington would handle being the hunted, but those concerns were put to ease as they handled it well at Philadelphia last week. The defense has had a bend but don't break mentality during the Skins six game winning streak and that will probably be how things go on Sunday. The Cowboys have the weapons to take advantage of the Skins weak secondary, so the Skins have to make sure the Cowboys don't get their ground game going. If DeMarco Murray starts breaking runs, the Cowboys will win this game. As for RG3 and the Skins offense, they just need to keep following the formula that has worked all year for them. Avoid costly turnovers, get Alfred Morris his carries and then let RG3 hit the big play. I think the Skins might come out a little jumpy and let the atmosphere of this game get to them. But I expect after the first few possessions they will settle down and get into their groove. This game is really a toss up, but do you really think their is a chance in hell I pick the Cowboys? Hail to the Redskins!

Prediction: Washington 35, Dallas 27

Last Week Against the Spread: 10-6
Overall Against the Spread: 112-121-7

Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 155-84-1

The Hail Mary - Week 16

Last week's bonanza of upper echelon games didn't quite live up to the hype. Many of the game between teams with winning records were blowouts. However, the Steelers/Cowboys and the Patriots/49ers games lived up to the hype and showed the NFL at its best. This weekend there are just three games between teams with winning records, but every game but two has some sort of playoff implication tied to its result. The game of the weekend once again features the 49ers facing a difficult road test at Seattle. The Niners have already mowed through Lambeau, the Superdome, and Gillette, they now look to add CenturyLink Field and their 12th man to the list.


Saturday,  December 22

Atlanta (12-2) at Detroit (4-10), Atlanta favored by 4

It is kind of nice to see that things are back to normal and the Detroit Lions suck at football. Calvin Johnson may have overcome the Madden Curse after a slow start to the season, but we can now say the curse struck the Lions. Detroit has lost six straight and it would take an upset in one of their last two games to avoid ending the season on a 8 game losing streak. I'm not really talking about the Falcons because really who cares about Atlanta and regular seasons. They can get home field advantage and no one will really be scared to play them at the Georgia Dome after the Packers made them mince meat their two years ago. For Atlanta, it really is all about how they perform in the playoffs.

Prediction: Atlanta 34, Detroit 20


Sunday, December 23

Buffalo (5-9) at Miami (6-8), Miami favored by 4 1/2

The Dolphins are still technically alive for a playoff berth but it would take a tremendous confluence of events to happen for them to sneak in. More realistically, they are playing to finish their first season under Joe Philbin and Ryan Tannehill at .500 and have something to build from. Bills fans are hoping they have just two games left of the Chan Gailey and Ryan Fitzpatrick era.



Prediction: Miami 24, Buffalo 16

Minnesota (8-6) at Houston (12-2), Houston favored by 8 1/2

Another huge game this weekend is in Houston. The Texans can clinch home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with a win, while the Vikings need to keep winning to try to stay in the playoff picture. It is amazing that without a viable passing game, RB Adrian Peterson continues to run at a record pace. He is only 188 yards from a 2,000 yard season, and that isn't even what people are talking about. They basically assume Peterson will get that, the real question is will he break Eric Dickerson's single season record of 2,105 rushing yards? The Texans are 5th best in the league against the run so Peterson will have his work cut out for him. Christian Ponder has to avoid any mistakes and Vikings will have to play excellent defense to stay in this game. I think they will be competitive, but Peterson alone can't will them to victory against a top flight team.

Prediction: Houston 23, Minnesota 20

Washington (8-6) at Philadelphia (4-10), Washington favored by 4 1/2

Well, Kirk Cousins and Mike Shanahan sure made a lot of people look foolish last weekend. They made people that thrashed the Skins for picking Cousins in the fourth round look foolish, and they made people talking about how they should have played Sexy Rexy instead look really foolish. Now it appears that the reigns will be handed back to RG3, who from all indications will start on Sunday. This game is making me nervous as Skins fans are dangerously assuming this is a victory. Sure, the Eagles are terrible but they still are professionals and aren't just going to roll over, especially at home. They also get back RB LaSean McCoy, who will be raring to go after sitting out the past month with a concussion. The Redskins will be hoping that Bryce Brown still receives plenty of touches since he is good for a fumble returned to the house at least once a game. The big question is will Griffin show any rust or will it be business as usual? I expect this game to prove to be a tense affair, with the Skins scratching and clawing their way to victory and just one win away from their first NFC East title in 13 years.

Prediction: Washington 28, Philadelphia 21

New Orleans (6-8) at Dallas (8-6), Dallas favored by 3

The Cowboys and Redskins are headed towards a prime time showdown next Sunday night for the division title and possibly just to make it into the playoffs. Before that the Cowboys have to handle their business at home against the Saints. I want to pick New Orleans in this game but they have been mostly dreadful on the road, especially QB Drew Brees. The battle between Brees and Tony Romo could either be exquisite, or one that is downright ugly and filled with turnovers. I am going to go with the former, but think the Cowboys defense being better than the Saints defense, will be the difference.

Prediction: Dallas 35, New Orleans 31

Tennessee (5-9) at Green Bay (10-4), Green Bay favored by 12

The Packers wrapped up the NFC North with their victory over Chicago last weekend and now in a battle with San Francisco for the second seed and a bye the first week of the playoffs. The Packers sometimes play down to their competition and surprisingly the offense hasn't broken 30 points in over a month. I think the Pack are due to have a breakout game against a bad Titans team. 

Prediction: Green Bay 35, Tennessee 17

Indianapolis (9-5) at Kansas City (2-12), Indianapolis favored by 6

The Colts can wrap up a playoff berth with a victory at lowly Kansas City. They received great news this week, as head coach Chuck Pagano is expected to rejoin the team Monday after being given a clean bill of health from his doctors. What better way to celebrate Pagano coming back then with a playoff berth secured. 

Prediction: Indianapolis 27, Kansas City 14

San Diego (5-9) at New York Jets (6-8), New York Jets favored by 3

Absolutely no reason to watch this game, including even if you are a Chargers or Jets fan. The way that Jets blew that abortion of a game on Monday night against the Titans was comical. Now with the season over, coach Rex Ryan has decided it is finally time to pull Mark Sanchez. Too little too late for Rex and the Jets, but I have to say Rex deserves a ton of credit for dragging this rag tag bunch to 6 wins.

Prediction: San Diego 19, New York Jets 12

Cincinnati (8-6) at Pittsburgh (7-7), Pittsburgh favored by 4 1/2

Huge statement game for the Bengals. A win gets them into the playoffs and fittingly they have to do it against a team that has had their number the last few years. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are building a nice foundation in Cincinnati but the duo has yet to defeat either the Steelers or the Ravens. Now is the time to do it as the Steelers are reeling and Ben Roethlisberger let his frustration with offensive coordinator Todd Haley's offense become public. I don't doubt that the Bengals can win this game but I am not picking them in a game like this until they prove they can win it.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 25, Cincinnati 21

St. Louis (6-7-1) at Tampa Bay (6-8), Tampa Bay favored by 3

The Rams have faint playoff hopes but really are just playing out the string. The Buccaneers were riding high at 6-4 but have lost four straight, with things reaching their nadir last weekend when they were somehow shutout by the atrocious Saints defense. I think they have some fight left in them though and won't suffer a complete collapse to end the season like they did under Raheem Morris last season.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, St. Louis 20

Oakland (4-10) at Carolina (5-9), Carolina favored by 9

The only interesting storyline in this game is that Raiders backup Terrell Pryor might see some action. Carolina could possibly be headed to another 6-10 season, whoopity doo.

Prediction: Carolina 30, Oakland 22

New England (10-4) at Jacksonville (2-12), New England favored by 14

Something is very wrong if the Patriots don't absolutely beat the crap out of the Jaguars. They might even have the Gronk back for this game!

Prediction: New England 42, Jacksonville 17

Cleveland (5-9) at Denver (11-3), Denver favored by 12 1/2

The Broncos are neck and neck with the Texans for home field advantage and also need to keep winning to secure a first round bye. Browns and Broncos was quite a rivalry in the 80s, now it is just another game the Browns are major underdogs in, or the status quo.

Prediction: Denver 30, Cleveland 20

Chicago (8-6) at Arizona (5-9), Chicago favored by 5 1/2

The Bears collapse continues and now they are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs. If they can't beat Arizona on Sunday they definitely don't deserve to make the playoffs. The Cardinals ended their nine game losing streak last week but they still are completely dreadful on offense, and the Bears defense, though depleted, should dictate this game.

Prediction: Chicago 20, Arizona 13

New York Giants (8-6) at Baltimore (9-5), New York Giants favored by 1

Someone has to win this game between two reeling teams. Well, I suppose they could tie but the chances of that are very slim. The Ravens were once unbeatable at home, but have now lost two straight. The Giants were once road warriors but have lost three in a row away from home. Both of their quarterbacks, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco can look great and awful multiple times a game. Flacco is catching a lot of grief but his numbers are actually better than Eli's. This game is a toss up, but I can't envision Baltimore dropping a third straight home game, so I will go with them.

Prediction: Baltimore 26, New York Giants 23

San Francisco (10-3-1) at Seattle (9-5), Seattle favored by 1

Another week, another road challenge for the 49ers and another week of people picking them to lose. The Seahawks are unbeaten at home this year and have beaten some really good teams in Seattle. The win over the Packers shouldn't really count because of the ref fiasco but they did beat New England, Minnesota, and Dallas at home, and those are all teams either in the playoffs or right there to make the playoffs. Things have changed quite a bit for both teams since their last meeting two months ago in San Francisco, which the Niners won 13-6. The Seahawks offense is now rolling and Russell Wilson is no longer a liability, he has become a star. The 49ers are no longer held under the constraints that the Alex Smith era held them in, they have renewed hope and life on offense with Colin Kaepernick. In their tough road wins this season, the Niners have done a good job of taking the lead early and silencing the crowd quickly. They will need to follow a similar path if they want to be successful Sunday night. That means not allowing Marshawn Lynch to get going, which was a problem in the first meeting. The run game worked for Seattle in October, they just couldn't generate an aerial attack. They had plenty of chances but either guys dropped balls or Wilson threw bad passes. Those things have been improved since then, so the 49ers will have a very slim margin of error on defense. I'm not worried about them suffering from a letdown. Coach Harbaugh will have them ready to play and they know that this is an opportunity to wrap up the division in their biggest rivals house. I have complete faith in this team to conquer another challenge.

Prediction: San Francisco 20, Seattle 17

Last Week Against the Spread: 10-6 (bout damn time)
Overall Against the Spread: 102-115-7

Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 144-79-1