Wednesday, May 30, 2012

2012 NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Finals

People have all but declared the Boston Celtics chances of beating the Miami Heat dead after the Heat dominated the Celtics in Game 1. Boston fans cried about the referees and are hanging on to the hope that a fairly contested game will lead to better results. I lean somewhere in the middle. The Celtics will have to play out of their minds to beat the Heat four times, but I don't think this series will be a cakewalk for Miami.

#2 Miami Heat vs. #4 Boston Celtics

Boston has moved on to the Eastern Conference Finals despite Paul Pierce and Ray Allen struggling for the majority of the playoffs. Allen is dealing with nagging injuries and there has been some discussion of having him sit in this series. I find the chances of that extremely unlikely but right now Allen is a liability on defense and he isn't doing what he does best, hitting threes. Pierce labored through a 5-18 shooting effort in Game 1 and he has two of the better defenders in the league in Shane Battier and LeBron James guarding him. Dwyane Wade was having his way with Allen in Game 1, and I think the Celtics might have to give Allen some rest, and give Marquis Daniels some more time off of the bench. It would also help if Mickael Pietrus does more than take up space, like he did in Game 1.

The Celtics have a clear advantage at point with Rajon Rondo going against Mario Chalmers, and even on the bench with Keyon Dooling spelling Rondo and Norris Cole getting limited time off the bench for Chalmers. The Celtics will definitely miss the presence of Avery Bradley, who had really come on this season, especially on the defensive end. Rondo did score 16 in Game 1 but also had just 7 assists to go with 4 turnovers. That assist to turnover ratio will have to improve greatly. 

PF Kevin Garnett was the Celtics bright spot in Game 1 and has been playing very well in the playoffs. He put up 23 points and 10 rebounds and was basically the only reason the Celtics weren't completely blown out. He basically made Udonis Haslem useless in the game, as Haslem only played 15 minutes and contributed just 2 rebounds, scoring zero points.

Neither team is known for their post play, the Celtics through out such luminaries as Brandon Bass and Greg Stiemsma, while the Heat have Ronny Turiaf, Joel Anthony, and when he returns from his suspension Dexter Pittman. The Heat hope that Chris Bosh can return at some point during this series but all signs seem to indicate that the earliest he would be available is if the Heat make the Finals.

The Heat can look unbeatable at times, but at the end of the day, they really are just a two man team right now. That means they can also look just as vulnerable as they do invincible. It was clearly evident in their two losses to Indiana, so it's not like the Celtics are likely to get swept. They can definitely steal a couple games from Miami, maybe even Games 3 and 4 at home. However, they don't seem to have enough answers for slowing down James and Wade. They can do it well enough to be competitive but not well enough to win. The Heat will take down Boston in the playoffs for a second straight season and advance to their second straight NBA Finals.

Prediction: Heat over Celtics, 4-2






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