Friday, September 16, 2011

The Hail Mary - Week 2

Week 1 was highlighted by offense and blowouts. Quarterbacks had huge games. Some were not so surprising, like Tom Brady, but others were shocking, such as Cam Newton's debut. If anything it seemed the lockout affected the defenses more than the offenses. Week 2 has some solid games but the one drawing the most attention is Mike Vick's return to Atlanta. This is Vick's second trip back to Atlanta, but his first as a starting quarterback. The game is pretty important for Atlanta, looking to avoid an 0-2 start.

Week 2 - Sunday, September 18

Oakland (1-0) at Buffalo (1-0), Buffalo favored by 4

Two weeks into the season and either Oakland or Buffalo is guaranteed to be undefeated. The Bills are getting some hype after their waxing of Kansas City at Arrowhead. I wasn't necessarily surprised the Bills won, but was shocked that it was by 34 points. Ryan Fitzgerald quietly was effective last season, and he might be carrying that effectiveness over to this year. The Raiders tried to lose to Denver, committing 15 penalties, but luckily for them the Broncos are so bad it didn't matter. The formula for success for the Raiders is simple. Darren McFadden has to be effective running the ball, because Jason Campbell and the receivers give them nothing, and the defense has to be the type of ball hawks they were Monday night. Oakland having to go to Buffalo for an early game seems like too much of a hurdle for the Raiders to overcome.

Prediction: Buffalo 28, Oakland 17

Kansas City (0-1) at Detroit (1-0), Detroit favored by 8

Wait, so not only might Buffalo be 2-0, but the Lions too!?! This is the most I think I have ever seen the Lions favored by in my life. It is with good reason though, as they were impressive on the road against Tampa. The Chiefs were expected to take a step back after their fluke fraud season last year, but based on they played in Week 1 they may finish 0-16. The Chiefs only hope is that Jamaal Charles can get going, as that is about the only thing they have going for them. I am actually picking the Lions to cover an 8 point spread, hell has frozen over.

Prediction: Detroit 27, Kansas City 13

Baltimore (1-0) at Tennessee (0-1), Baltimore favored by 6

Man, the Titans really suck. Losing to a sorry Jacksonville team, and one of your touchdowns was a complete fluke? Chris Johnson did next to nothing and obviously is rusty due to his lengthy holdout. The Ravens shocked the football world by their complete domination of Pittsburgh. Are the Steelers that bad, the Ravens that good, or is it just a week 1 aberration? I still don't think the Ravens are anything better than a 9-7 team. However, I may have underestimated just how awesome Ray Rice is. I expect Rice to have another big game this Sunday.

Prediction: Baltimore 28, Tennessee 14

Cleveland (0-1) at Indianapolis (0-1), Cleveland favored by 2 1/2

I know the Colts are without Peyton Manning. I also know that they were curb stomped by the Texans. It was pretty embarrassing but nowhere near the level of embarrassment the Browns should feel losing at home to the Bungles. No doubt Manning is incredibly vital to the Colts offense but is hard for me to believe that none of the Colts many skill players can only be effective with Manning under center. I think this line is ridiculous, and that the Colts feel a little better about themselves come Monday.

Prediction: Indianapolis 19, Cleveland 17

Tampa Bay (0-1) at Minnesota (0-1), Minnesota favored by 3

This is pretty much a pick em game in my view. The Shanahan's have to be feeling a little better after McNabb laid a stink bomb to start the season. He threw for just 35 yards. Yes, in the entire game, not just on a drive, not just on a play but in a game that he played all four quarters in. That is pathetic. Maybe he can double it and throw for 70 this weekend! The Vikings held their own against the Chargers as I expected, and I think home field is enough for them to get the win in this one.

Prediction: Minnesota 23, Tampa Bay 21

Chicago (1-0) at New Orleans (0-1), New Orleans favored by 7

Vegas obviously wasn't impressed by the Bears rout of the Falcons. The Saints have to be worried about their defense, which has been torched in the last two meaningful games they played in. The offense looked fantastic in the opener, and even without Marques Colston, shouldn't miss a beat. They do need to establish the run more, as Mark Ingram had a disappointing debut. The Saints spent a lot of money upgrading their defensive line. If that line can't get a push on the Bears sorry offensive line, it will begin to look like a wasted investment.

Prediction: New Orleans 28, Chicago 24

Jacksonville (1-0) at New York Jets (1-0), New York Jets favored by 9 1/2

I think this line is way too high. Jacksonville won in New York the last time they played there, and the Jets should be 0-1. They only reason they beat the Cowboys was because Tony Romo turned into a buffoon in the 4th quarter. I think Jacksonville's atrocious but the Jets start didn't inspire much confidence in me. Their game plan of having Sanchez throw and then supplement it with a little bit of running was odd to me. Mark Sanchez played ok, but I don't think he is ready to take that much control of a game. Jets will win, but the Jags will be competitive.

Prediction: New York Jets 20, Jacksonville 13

Seattle (0-1) at Pittsburgh (0-1), Pittsburgh favored by 14 1/2

It's the rematch of one of the worst Super Bowls ever played! The Steelers can't just win this game, they need to annihilate Seattle. If the Steelers struggle at home, then their fans should officially panic. Warren Sapp has declared the Steelers dead and said their defense is too old and slow now. Just 7 months ago that defense was good enough to get Pittsburgh to the Super Bowl, so I think Sapp is being his usual idiotic self. Its hard to play good defense when your offense turns the ball over a ridiculous 7 times. This line is too high for Pittsburgh to cover but they will still win comfortably.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Seattle 10

Arizona (1-0) at Washington (1-0), Washington favored by 4

Man has the talk changed about Rex Grossman. He plays one good game and now all the stories are, the Shanahan's have resuscitated Rex's career! The Skins were impressive in Week 1 and Grossman did play well, but let's slow down on the hyperbole. Grossman has a chance to have another good game, against a porous Cardinals secondary that tried to make Cam Newton a Hall of Famer in his first career start. Redskins RB Tim Hightower has a chance to earn some revenge on the team that felt casting him off for over the hill Vonnie Holliday was a good move. Hightower struggled against the Giants but I expect him to be more like the Hightower we saw in the preseason against Arizona. DeAngelo Hall will have his hands full with Larry Fitzgerald. Hakeem Nicks was having success getting open, so Fitzgerald could make a couple big plays. I was really happy with how the defense looked against New York, and with the Cardinals being so one dimensional the chance is there for another strong performance. This town could come unglued if the Skins start out 2-0.

Prediction: Washington 23, Arizona 20

Green Bay (1-0) at Carolina (0-1), Green Bay favored by 10

I think reality hits Cam Newton this weekend against the defending champs. I was just as impressed as everyone else by his debut but it may have been a bad thing for him. He has nowhere to go but down now and set the expectations way too high to start. Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers will have Newton under duress most of the game. The Packers offense will show the precision they showed in the opener, that makes the game look so easy for them. Packers in a rout.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Carolina 13

Dallas (0-1) at San Francisco (1-0), Dallas favored by 3

Remember when this game used to create buzz and was always the de facto Super Bowl? Now, not so much. That's what happens when instead of Troy Aikman vs. Steve Young, you have Tony Romo vs. Alex Smith. The Niners won like they were supposed to last weekend but Smith was his usual mediocre self and they were saved by Ted Ginn. The Cowboys looked great for three quarters until Romo experienced shrinkage in a big moment. The Niners will be game to keep this close for a little bit but the Cowboys are much more talented than them. Man, it hurts to say that.

Prediction: Dallas 31, San Francisco 21

Cincinnati (1-0) at Denver (0-1), Denver favored by 4 1/2

I thought the Bengals would be the last team to win a game this year but they got that out of the way quickly. Playing against the Broncos they have a fair chance at being 2-0. The natives are already restless with Kyle Orton. If he struggles against Cincy it could get ugly at Sports Authority Invesco Mile High Stadium. I am not sure if Andy Dalton is recovered and ready to play this game. I haven't heard anything about his status, likely because no one gives a crap. What the hell, I like the Bungles in a sorta upset.

Prediction: Cincinnati 13, Denver 10

Houston (1-0) at Miami (0-1), Houston favored by 3

The Dolphins did what they do best on Monday night, lose embarrassingly at home. The defense was supposed to be the one bright spot but it was actually the offense that had a nice accounting of itself. Everyone loves the Texans after they routed the Colts, but all it reminds me of is last season. That being said, Miami just can't seem to win at home and I don't expect that to change Sunday.

Prediction: Houston 26, Miami 18

San Diego (1-0) at New England (1-0), New England favored by 6 1/2

This is the second best game of the weekend. Tom Brady was amazing last Monday night and I think it is beyond a shadow of a doubt now that he is the best quarterback in football. The Patriots do need to be concerned about their defense, which didn't look any better than the average unit they were last season. If Chad Henne can throw for over 400 yards on them, Philip Rivers must be feeling tons of excitement about what he might be able to do. The Chargers special teams remains terrible and a coaching battle between Bill Belichick and Norv Turner is laughably one sided. The games between these teams are usually close, so I don't think the Patriots will cover the number.

Prediction: New England 30, San Diego 27

Philadelphia (1-0) at Atlanta (0-1), Philadelphia favored by 2 1/2

Some silly people thought that the Rams were going to upset the Dream Team. As I expected the Eagles made a statement and blew the Rams out of their building. What I didn't expect was the Falcons to get bent over by the Bears. I knew the Falcons had a shaky defense but their offense was atrocious, especially Matt Ryan. Mike Vick hopes he can have the kind of game he had two years ago in Atlanta. Despite being the third string quarterback he was able to score two touchdowns against the Falcons. Vick was as electrifying as ever running the ball against the Rams but just 14 of 32 passing. That needs to improve quickly. The Falcons are starting to get the stink to me of a team that won a lot of games one season, then has a precipitous fall the next. Expect lots of what's wrong with the Falcons stories after they start the year 0-2.

Prediction: Philadelphia 27, Atlanta 20

Monday, September 19

St. Louis (0-1) at New York Giants (0-1), New York Giants favored by 4 1/2

Usually the stinkers come later in the year for Monday Night Football since they don't have the option of flex scheduling. That's not the case this season, Week 2 and MNF has their first stinker! I know what Jaws is probably thinking and is liable to say on Monday, "shit"! The Rams have been hit by the injury bug already, as both Danny Amendola and Steven Jackson could miss a few weeks. Jackson is a beast but damn is he brittle. The Giants defense has been besieged by injuries and it showed in Week 1. The Rams are down some options on offense though so that should balance things out a bit. The Giants offense doesn't have injuries and needs to perform far better than they did in Week 1.

Prediction: New York Giants 24, St. Louis 13

Last Week Straight Up: 9-7
Overall Straight Up: 9-7

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-6-1
Overall Against the Spread: 9-6-1

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