Monday, May 2, 2011

2011 NBA Playoffs - Eastern and Western Conference Semi-Finals

The First Round of the NBA Playoffs will be a hard act to live up to. While no series went seven games, the games themselves were all very competitive and provided more drama than fans are accustomed to seeing in the opening act of the NBA Playoffs. The East now comes down to the Chicago Bulls taking on the Atlanta Hawks, which is a slight surprise, and then the most anticipated series in the Conference Semi-Finals, the Celtics battling the Heat. In the West, the Memphis Grizzlies made Charles Barkley look like a genius for picking them, as they dismantled the San Antonio Spurs, and now face the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder. The other matchup sees Kobe and the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Lakers battle the Dallas Mavericks.

Eastern Conference Semi-Finals

#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks

This isn't the matchup that Jameer Nelson envisioned but such a crappy player shouldn't be talking trash as it is. The Hawks proved that their regular season success against the Magic was no fluke. The Bulls got all they could handle from the Indiana Pacers but still managed to close them out in 5 games.

Hopefully that jolt from the Pacers woke the Bulls up and showed them that they will have to earn everything they achieve in the playoffs. Derrick Rose carried the Bulls in that series but struggled mightily shooting the ball. That isn't a problem as long as he can continue to get to the free throw line and hit free throws. Carlos Boozer was completely ineffective against Indiana and now is dealing with turf toe. I think the Bulls are talented enough to win without a major contribution from him against Atlanta, but against either Miami or Boston he has to step up. If he can't be effective offensively then he will need to at least slow down Al Horford. Joakim Noah will have a major advantage over Jason Collins.

The Hawks will be without former Bull and their starting point guard Kirk Hinrich. He strained his hamstring and is not expected to be able to return for the series. That is a huge loss for the Hawks who will now have to rely on either the inexperienced Jeff Teague, or allow Crawford to get more minutes at point guard. Joe Johnson could have a huge series going against the overmatched Keith Bogans,

The Bulls will be tested once again but the Hawks won't be able to slow down Rose and I think Noah could have a monster series.

Prediction: Bulls over Hawks, 4-2

#2 Miami Heat vs. #3 Boston Celtics

This series tipped off yesterday with the Heat dominating the game and defeating Boston to take an early 1-0 series lead. Dwyane Wade was unreal, scoring 38 points and hitting 14 of his 21 shots. Even more unreal were the contributions from James Jones off the bench. He hit 5 three pointers and finished with 25 points.

Game 1 was very chippy and saw Paul Pierce get ejected. That figures to be a running theme throughout the series as neither team cares much for the other. This is the series where I think the Celtics will really miss Kendrick Perkins. Going against a stiff like Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and a little accomplished player in Joel Anthony, are matchups that Perkins could have exploited. Instead, the carcass of Jermaine O'Neal will have to try to do something.

Yesterday's game did give me pause but I still think the Celtics are the better team. Team being the key word. James Jones won't be dropping 25 every game, and when it comes down to it the Heat are still 3 players and a bunch of nobodies. Even the third part of that group, Chris Bosh, is unreliable and won't be dominating the Celtics like he did the 76ers.

It will take consistent bench play for the Heat to beat Boston and I don't think the Heat have the parts to make that happen.

Prediction: Celtics over Heat, 4-3


Western Conference Semi-Finals

#5 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies are in an NBA Jam like "On Fire" zone right now. They basically dominated the Spurs and then shot lights out and put the Thunder on notice in Game 1 of their series. Zach Randolph is playing at an insane level right now and can't be slowed down. Marc Gasol has people actually trying to argue that the Grizzlies didn't get swindled in the Pau Gasol trade a few years ago. Tony Allen and Shane Battier are giving the Grizzlies the defensive toughness needed to go far in the playoffs.

All of that being said, the Thunder still have the best player on the court, Kevin Durant. However, Russell Westbrook really needs to step up his game. He is scoring points but is taking way too many shots to get those points and has been turning over the ball too much. Kendrick Perkins will have to wake up as well, he was virtually non-existent in Game 1.

This series will rest on whether Serge Ibaka and Perkins can slow down Gasol and Randolph. As long as the Grizzlies big men continue to play at this high of a level, the Grizz will keep shocking the world. I'm drinking the kool-aid and like the Grizzlies to move on.

Prediction: Grizzlies over Thunder, 4-3

#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #3 Dallas Mavericks

For the first time since 1988, the Lakers and Mavericks meet in the playoffs. Considering how each team has been a mainstay of the playoffs for about a decade, it's pretty amazing they never crossed paths. I can't stand the Mavericks loud-mouthed owner Mark Cuban and would love to see the smug look wiped off his face by LA.

The Mavs surprised me by getting past the Blazers but still choked in spectacular Maverick fashion in Game 4. I expect to see a lot of that from them in this series, and still don't think they have the mental toughness to be champions. I will say that when DeShawn Stevenson is a starter on your team, I can't take you seriously as contenders.

Its the same story as always for the Lakers. Kobe Bryant will consistently contribute and the Lakers success will come down to how Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol and the bench play. The Lakers struggled with the Hornets because of the struggles of Gasol and Odom. The Mavericks have size with Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler, but Nowitzki is a big man in height only and rarely plays down low. Bynum and Gasol should each have big series. Also, Derek Fisher won't get tore up defensively, as he gets to face someone even older than him in Jason Kidd.

The Lakers will probably do what they do best and make things more difficult than they should be, but I have no doubt they will be moving on to the Western Conference Finals.

Prediction: Lakers over Mavericks, 4-2

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