Thursday, April 14, 2011

2011 NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference, First Round

Doing things a little differently this year for the NBA playoffs. Instead of just focusing on the Bulls and Lakers, I will preview each First Round series in the NBA Playoffs. I don't think the playoffs truly get interesting until the Conference Semi-Finals, but that doesn't mean the First Round isn't worth talking about. Today, I start off with the Eastern Conference. Four teams are seen as having a legitimate chance of representing the East in the NBA Finals. The Chicago Bulls are the favorites, followed by the Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, and probably only in Orlando, the Magic. However, the four of them will have to handle their business in the First Round.

First Round

#1 Chicago Bulls (62-20) vs. #8 Indiana Pacers (37-45)

In my preview of the Bulls/Cavs series from last year's playoffs, I wrote this. "It helps that they play in the decidedly weak Eastern Conference but hopefully when they get the right coach in place next season they can finally make some noise." Well, the Bulls landed that coach in the off-season, bringing in Celtics assistant Tom Thibodeau. The team bought into his defensive philosophy and went from the 8 seed and 41 wins, to the 1 seed and 62 wins. Soon to be MVP Derrick Rose was steady for the Bulls all season, as they overcame injuries to Carlos Boozer, and Joakim Noah.

The Pacers are led by Danny Granger, who thinks the Pacers have a shot if they can stop Rose. Sorry Danny boy, but the Pacers have no shot in this series, mostly because they can't match the Bulls defensive intensity. At just 37 wins, the Pacers are just fortunate to even be in the playoffs and will be lucky if they can steal a game.

Prediction: Bulls over Pacers, 4-0

#4 Orlando (52-30) vs. #5 Atlanta (44-38)

This is a rematch from last year's playoffs, when the Magic decimated the Hawks in the Conference Semi-Finals. The Hawks come into this year's playoffs reeling, losers of six in a row. The Magic have been up and down all season, completing a gigantic trade in December that brought them Jason Richardson, Gilbert Arenas, and Hedo Turkoglu.

The Magic are hoping that JJ Redick will return for the playoffs, after missing the end of the regular season with a lower abdominal strain. Their is a misconception that the Magic don't play defense, but they finished fourth in points allowed per game. Dwight Howard continues to improve and become more and more dominant.

The Hawks have a starting five that can compete with most teams but have a very thin bench. Although all talented, I don't think Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, or Al Horford really scare any teams. The Hawks are stuck in that good enough to compete but not good to win anything zone. They can have some confidence in the fact they beat the Magic three out of four times this season, but it's a whole different animal in the postseason. I think they will play the Magic much harder this year, but ultimately it won't be enough.

Prediction: Magic over Hawks, 4-2

#2 Miami Heat (58-24) vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers (41-41)

For a three man team, it would be hating to say the Heat's 58-24 record this season wasn't impressive. They went through a few trials and tribulations but to win that many games after a complete overhaul of a team is quite the accomplishment. Do I think they will win a title this season? No, but they have shown that given a couple more seasons they should be the best team in the league. The three headed monster of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh are the only Heat players that averaged double figures in scoring. Their point guard play has been unsteady all season, and is what I think will eventually be their undoing against the Celtics or Bulls.

The Sixers are a very balanced team. Elton Brand returned from the dead and played a full season, leading Philadelphia in scoring with 15 points per game. Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, and the point guard 1-2 punch of Jrue Holliday and Lou Williams are all capable of putting up points.

The Sixers have some good pieces in place and could be a team to watch as long as coach Doug Collins doesn't lose the team. However, they aren't ready to take down a team as talented as the Heat.

Prediction: Heat over 76ers, 4-1

#3 Boston Celtics (56-26) vs. #6 New York Knicks (42-40)

This is by far the most intriguing First Round series in the East. The Knicks are finally back in the playoffs and have two of the best scorers in the league, Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony. They also have a veteran point guard in Chauncey Billups. Unfortunately for them, you can't just win outscoring teams, and the Knicks defense is atrocious. They will be facing the Celtics, who were the best defensive team in the league in the regular season.

The Celtics have seemed out of sorts since the Kendrick Perkins trade and the ultimate success or failure of that trade will be judged on whether the Celtics bring home a championship. Their big four of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett are the least of their concerns. The big questions are, how will Jeff Green play? Will Nenad Kristic add anything? Can Glen Davis remain steady off the bench? Will Shaq suit up?

I think the atmosphere will be great in this series, especially Madison Square Garden in Games 3 and 4. The Celtics are too good defensively and will be able to slow down Anthony and Stoudemire. The Knicks won't be able to get the stops they need, but they will definitely make this series interesting.

Prediction: Celtics over Knicks, 4-2

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