The Hail Mary - Week 4

Kind of a weak slate of games this weekend but all eyes will be on Philadelphia come Sunday afternoon. That is when Donovan McNabb will make his return to Philadelphia, where he played for 11 seasons, taking the Eagles to 5 NFC Championship games, and 1 Super Bowl. The big question is what kind of reception will McNabb get from the Eagles fans. He should be cheered when he goes on to the field. He didn't demand a trade or leave via free agency. He was traded because the Eagles determined they were better off without him. Now during the game, of course he should be booed, he will be playing for the enemy Redskins. But considering all he went through during his time in Philadelphia and how he never bashed the fans or organization despite those things, he deserves an initial standing ovation.

Week 4 - Sunday, October 3

San Francisco (0-3) at Atlanta (2-1), Atlanta favored by 6 1/2

I was a big Mike Singletary fan but unless he gets the ship righted quickly this season, he has to go. Their is no reason the 49ers should be getting blown out by teams like the Seahawks and Chiefs with the amount of talent they have. They finally fired Offensive Coordinator Jimmy Raye, who was getting nothing out of an offense with multiple Pro Bowlers on it. Who knows if that will make a difference or not. Singletary is a great motivator but it appears he and his staff is very weak when it comes to X's and O's. Luckily, the 49ers are in the atrocious NFC West, but after fluke wins by the Seahawks and Cardinals last week, they already find themselves 2 games out. Atlanta made me look good by knocking off the Saints in New Orleans as I predicted. I had a feeling that the Falcons would be this year's sleeper team. QB Matt Ryan is playing very well, WR Roddy White is on fire, and the Falcons now have two consistent running backs in Michael Turner and Jason Snelling. 0-4 is staring the 49ers right in the face, I hope they can at least be competitive.

Prediction: Atlanta 28, San Francisco 14

New York Jets (2-1) at Buffalo (0-3), New York Jets favored by 4 1/2

What do you know? Mark Sansucks has played awesome football the last two games. He has yet to throw an interception this season. Sansucks had the worst game of his young career against the Bills last season so fantasy buyers beware of starting him this weekend. The Buffalo offense showed life with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB last weekend against the Patriots. With Jets CB Darrelle Revis being out again this week, I think the Bills will be able to move the ball against the Jets. However, a late Nick Folk field goal will be the difference.

Prediction: New York Jets 24, Buffalo 21

Cincinnati (2-1) at Cleveland (0-3), Cincinnati favored by 3 1/2

This game seems to be people's upset special this weekend. I don't see it. Sure Carson Palmer sucks and the Bengals have looked less than impressive this season but come on, it's the Browns we are talking about. Even if Jake Delhomme comes back to play this game, the Bengals win and cover.

Prediction: Cincinnati 20, Cleveland 14

Detroit (0-3) at Green Bay (2-1), Green Bay favored by 14 1/2

The Packers blew a game they should have won at Chicago on Monday night. It certainly didn't help that they had an astounding 18 penalties. The Lions looked like the Lions of old in not being able to cover an 11 point spread against the previously winless Vikings. Usually, I avoid lines that are this big but last week taught me to never bet on the Lions.

Prediction: Green Bay 35, Detroit 14

Denver (1-2) at Tennessee (2-1), Tennessee favored by 6 1/2

Because of the Broncos less than stellar beginning to the season, QB Kyle Orton's hot start has gone under the radar. Orton and the passing game are clicking in Denver, but they have been unable to establish a running game. The Titans weren't overly impressive against the Giants, they were mostly just fortunate that the Giants are really good at shooting themselves in the foot. I expect Titans RB Chris Johnson to bust out one large touchdown run in this game, and that will prove to be the difference.

Prediction: Tennessee 20, Denver 17

Seattle (2-1) at St. Louis (1-2), Seattle favored by 1

There is no doubt in my mind that Rams QB Sam Bradford is the real deal. For a rookie that has started just three NFL games he looks incredibly poised and confident. I think the sky is the limit for Bradford. I still think the Seahawks are huge fluke frauds but the Rams are so bad I find it impossible to actually pick them to win consecutive games.

Prediction: Seattle 21, St. Louis 17

Carolina (0-3) at New Orleans (2-1), New Orleans favored by 13 1/2

The Panthers offense is in shambles. Despite having two of the best running backs in the game in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, they don't give either nearly enough touches. QB Jimmy Clausen looked awful in his first start and looks like he will be dealing with major growing pains. They have a head coach in John Fox who is completely lame duck and on his way out the door. Now they get to play an angry Saints team that blew a home game against the Falcons last weekend. One of my most loyal readers, Pinto, celebrated a birthday this week, so while I can't predict a Panthers win, I can at least predict that they will cover!

Prediction: New Orleans 24, Carolina 13

Baltimore (2-1) at Pittsburgh (3-0), Pittsburgh favored by 1 1/2

If not for McNabb's return to Philadelphia this would be the game of the weekend. I hate watching Ravens game, I find them incredibly dull and boring, but when they play the Steelers I make sure to tune in. The hatred is there between these two teams and you are guaranteed to see hard hits and intense play. The Steelers are looking to finish undefeated without QB Ben Rapelisberger. QB Charlie Batch did just enough against Tampa Bay, while the Steelers defense continues to look like it could be an all-time defense. The Ravens offense and QB Joe Flacco got some much needed confidence against the Browns, but when faced with other good defenses this year Flacco has looked awful. It is impossible to pick against the Steelers right now.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 14, Baltimore 12

Houston (2-1) at Oakland (1-2), Houston favored by 3

The Texans came back down to Earth just as I predicted they would against the Cowboys. I think Houston is good but they have major issues that need to be addressed with their passing defense. Luckily for them the Raiders really aren't the type of team that can exploit that. That means the offensive load will go to RB Darren McFadden. McFadden is finally looking like the running back everyone expected him to be coming out of Arkansas. Too much Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Arian Foster for the Raiders to deal with.

Prediction: Houston 27, Oakland 17

Indianapolis (2-1) at Jacksonville (1-2), Indianapolis favored by 8 1/2

No matter what the Jaguars record is they always give the Colts fits. However, this year's Jaguars team looks like a new brand of awful. QB David Gerrard has regressed tremendously and the Jaguars defense can't stop anyone. Not good news when you have Peyton Manning and his seemingly new number one target, Austin Collie coming into town.

Prediction: Indianapolis 38, Jacksonville 17

Washington (1-2) at Philadelphia (2-1), Philadelphia favored by 6

What was most disheartening about the Skins blowout loss at St. Louis last weekend was how poorly coached they looked. In the preseason and the first two games, you could at least say that with Mike Shanahan the Skins looked competently coached. That was a Jim Zorn type effort Skins fans were treated to last Sunday. The early season story in the NFL is the sudden reemergence of Mike Vick. Vick is playing out of his mind right now. He has to come back to Earth at some point. I don't think going to jail and barely playing suddenly made Vick one of the best quarterbacks in the league. I think this game will have a playoff like atmosphere with the whole McNabb spectacle. Donovan won't admit it but he will be extra jazzed up for this game. One thing that I don't understand is why WR Devin Thomas isn't getting a shot on offense. He really isn't better than Joey Galloway or Roydell Williams? I find that hard to believe. I have a funny feeling about this game. The Skins tend to always play down to their competition but when the competition stiffens they rise to the occasion. I think the Skins pull off the mild upset, McNabb get's a measure of revenge and plays very well, and Mike Vick finally doesn't have an above average game.

Prediction: Washington 23, Philadelphia 20

Arizona (2-1) at San Diego (1-2), San Diego favored by 8

Bill Parcells used to say you are what your records say you are but that isn't always true. The Cardinals have a better record than the Chargers but they are no way a better team than the Chargers. San Diego looks like they may be an awful road team this year, and then more like the Chargers we expect to see at home. The Cardinals were destroyed by the Falcons in their last road game, and with the atrocious Derek Anderson still under center, I expect a similar result in this game.

Prediction: San Diego 31, Arizona 10

Chicago (3-0) at New York Giants (1-2), New York Giants favored by 3 1/2

Chicago is very fortunate to be 3-0. They had the bogus call win them their game against Detroit when Megatron got a touchdown stolen from him. Then last Monday night Jay Cutler was able to get away with throwing about 5 interceptions because of penalties. The New York Giants are awful. They look like they have tuned out coach Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning threw one of the most retarded passes I have ever seen in my life last weekend, and the defense continues to get pushed around. I think the Giants will start slow in this one, the New York crowd will turn against them, the heat will rise on Coughlin, and the Bears will be one of the worst 4-0 teams ever.

Prediction: Chicago 28, New York Giants 17

Monday, October 4

New England (2-1) at Miami (2-1), New England favored by 1

The Dolphins are coming off a tough to swallow loss at home against the Jets. The Patriots offense looked impressive last weekend but their defense, specifically their pass defense continues to look pathetic. Dolphins QB Chad Henne was able to get his receivers going against the Jets, and I think WR Brandon Marshall could be in for a big game against the inexperienced Patriots secondary. It would be demoralizing for the Dolphins to lose two division, prime time home games in a row. The Patriots have proven over the last couple of seasons that they aren't a very good road team anymore. That trend continues Monday night.

Prediction: Miami 27, New England 24

Last Week Straight Up: 9-7
Overall Straight Up: 27-21

Last Week Against the Spread: 11-5 (hell yeah!)
Overall Against the Spread: 27-19-2