The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs Championship Round

Three out of the four teams left in the NFL playoffs are led by premiere quarterbacks. No one can argue that Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning are amazing at their position. Then you have the New York Jets, party crashers in every sense of the word. They play old school football, led by a smash mouth running game and a fantastic defense, oh and their quarterback sucks balls. The only way I could slightly tolerate seeing the Jets make the Super Bowl is if they play the Vikings. Not just because it would be a sure win for Minnesota, but the subplot of Favre playing his former team would be slightly interesting. Otherwise, bring on Colts/Vikings!

AFC Championship: New York Jets (11-7) at Indianapolis (15-2), Indianapolis favored by 7 1/2

The New York Jets are much like the Arizona Cardinals from last season’s playoffs. Each week in last year’s playoffs the Cardinals would seem outmatched and were picked by just about everyone to lose. And each week they would prove the naysayers wrong, all the way to the Super Bowl. The Jets are hoping they can follow that pattern. However, unlike last year’s Cardinals, the Jets don’t get the benefit of a home game in the Championship game. They have to travel to Indianapolis and take on the 15-2 Colts. In reality, they will be playing the 15-0 Colts, as they haven’t lost to anyone when playing at full strength.

The Jets are a slightly better version of the Baltimore Ravens, a team the Colts beat rather easily, 20-3 last weekend. Both the Jets and Ravens have young, inexperienced quarterbacks, who are mostly asked to not do anything stupid. Both have very strong running games and backfields by committee. However, where the Jets are better than the Ravens is on defense. The Jets defense has been fantastic most of the season, led by stud CB Derrelle Revis. While the Jets have a better defense than the Ravens, it is still not good enough. Revis may be able to limit Reggie Wayne’s opportunities but rookies Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and TE Dallas Clark all still have to be accounted for. The Colts don’t have much of a running game but both Joseph Addai and Donald Brown are threats to catch the ball out of the backfield.

All that being said, the number one reason the Colts will win is their defense. The Colts played very well on defense against the Ravens, shutting down Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. It is my belief that they can do the same thing to Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. Joe Flacco has proven to be overrated but he is still far better than Mark Sansucks. Flacco had some mistakes early which dug a whole for the Ravens to have to climb out of. The Ravens aren’t built to come from behind, and neither are the Jets. If the Colts get up two touchdowns and force Sansuck to have to be more than a game manager, we could have a blowout.

The Jets defense will keep them in it but Sansuck will be good for at least 2 INTs, and a fumble. Colts move on to their second Super Bowl in four years.

Prediction: Indianapolis 17, New York Jets 7

NFC Championship: Minnesota (13-4) at New Orleans (14-3), New Orleans favored by 3 1/2

Screw the Dallas Cowboys! As it should be, the two best teams all season in the NFC will face off for the right to go to the Super Bowl. Each team struggled to finish the season but seemed to get back to their normal selves with blowout wins last weekend. If the Vikings had been able to take advantage of the opportunities the Saints gave them at the end of the season, and secured home-field advantage, I would be 100% confident in them winning. However, the Vikings have been a pretty pathetic team away from home. They lost their last three road games by a combined score of 92-54. The offensive line struggled mightily in those losses, and the defense wasn't much better.

For the Vikings to win on Sunday they have to do a few things. Firstly, they must establish a running game. Amazingly, Favre has somewhat rendered Adrian Peterson a forgotten man. But in this game, Peterson will have to have a good day for the Vikings to have any chance. If the Vikings insist on merely passing, the Saints will tee off on Favre. Then the Superdome will become a house of horrors, much like the Metrodome became for the Cowgirls last week. Even if Peterson only is getting 3 yards a pop to start the game, the Vikings have to stick with him, and get him about 25 carries. Secondly, the offensive line is going to have to play like they play at home. That means Bryant McKinnie can't get beat like a red headed stepchild, and play up to his Pro Bowl level. Favre has shown he can handle pressure but Kurt Warner proved last week, that even the most veteran QB can be rattled. Finally, the Vikings defense has to play like they did against Dallas. There is no way in hell I expect the Vikings to hold the Saints to 3 points, but they can't have a performance like they did in Chicago. Antoine Winfield needs to play well, Jared Allen needs to harrass Drew Brees, and the Vikings unheralded LBs have to contain Jeremy Shockey.

The Saints have a ton of weapons, including the emerging Reggie Bush. But the Vikings have just as many weapons as the Saints. This should be a hell of a game, and I am probably picking more with my heart than my brain, but the Vikings and Favre will return to the Super Bowl.

Prediction: Minnesota 30, New Orleans 24

Last Week Against the Spread: 1-3
Overall Against the Spread: 131-129-4

Last Week Straight Up: 3-1
Overall Straight Up: 168-95