Thursday, November 19, 2009

The Hail Mary - Week 11

The Washington Redskins have added some intrigue to their rivalry game with the Dallas Cowboys this week. With the Redskins season quickly crashing to oblivion it appeared this game would be a cake walk for the Cowboys. However, last week, the Skins upset the Broncos and the Cowboys were manhandled by the Packers. Those performances have given Redskins fans hope that they can beat Dallas on the road for the second straight season.

Games That I Plan on Watching

Changing up the title this week as it is still undetermined if I will be in New York on Sunday. If so the only games I will probably watch are tonight's game, the Sunday Night game between Philadelphia and Chicago, and the Monday Night game. If I am in town then I will get to watch Washington at Dallas, Indianapolis at Baltimore, and New York Jets at New England.

Miami (4-5) at Carolina (4-5), Carolina favored by 3

The Dolphins have been dealt a huge blow with the news that RB Ronnie Brown is now out for the season. That means RB Ricky Williams takes over as the starter, which isn't a bad insurance policy to have. People are wondering if the Dolphins will still run the Wildcat offense without Brown. I expect them to, and I expect them to incorporate QB Pat White much more now with Brown out. The Panthers have won 4 of their last 6 games to get back in the playoff race. QB Jake Delhomme has 0 interceptions in his last three games, while the running game has also been producing. The Dolphins will miss Brown tonight and his absence will be the reason for the loss.

Prediction: Carolina 19, Miami 17

Washington (3-6) at Dallas (6-3), Dallas favored by 11

I think Vegas is giving the Cowboys way too many points for a rivalry game. The Dallas bandwagon had to let some people off last week, after the offense was embarrassed in Green Bay. The Redskins offense seems to have found a spark, whether it be Sherm Lewis calling plays, or the fact that at this stage in their careers RB Ladell Betts is better than RB Clinton Portis. The Redskins played their best game of the season against Denver but I consider that an anomaly. However, the games between these two are always close, and I expect nothing different this year. The Redskins secondary will give up one too many big plays to WR Miles Austin, giving the Cowboys the win.

Prediction: Dallas 27, Washington 20

Indianapolis (9-0) at Baltimore (5-4), Baltimore favored by 1

The Colts are surprisingly underdogs in this game. Indianapolis was a quarter away from losing their perfect season, and then the New England Patriots imploded. I was ready to pick the Ravens to win this game but then watched their awful performance against the Browns on Monday night. The Ravens are a far cry from the team that showed up the first three weeks of the season. Peyton Manning will lead another late game drive and the Colts will remain unbeaten.

Prediction: Indianapolis 24, Baltimore 21

New York Jets (4-5) at New England (6-3), New England favored by 10 1/2

The Jets have really fallen off since their Week 2 win against the Patriots. They have gone just 2-5 since and are barely alive in the AFC playoff race. The big question around the Patriots this week is can they bounce back from their crushing loss to the Colts. If any team can it is New England, led by QB Tom Brady and coach Bill Belichick. The Jets will play hard and not allow themselves to be blown out, but the Patriots are better.

Prediction: New England 24, New York Jets 14

Philadelphia (5-4) at Chicago (4-5), Philadelphia favored by 3

The Eagles head to Soldier Field for a Sunday night game for the second straight season. Last year, the story was how the Eagles couldn't convert a first and goal from the one, and it ended up costing them the game. QB Jay Cutler will certainly hear some boo birds from the home faithful, following his 5 INT performance at San Francisco last week. In prime time games this year Cutler has 9 INTs. The Bears will be playing for their season, a loss and there are sure to be lots of changes coming. The Eagles are also desperate for a win, as a 5-2 start has deteriorated with two straight losses.

Prediction: Philadelphia 28, Chicago 21

Tennessee (3-6) at Houston (5-4), Houston favored by 4 1/2

Titans QB Vince Young returns home, where last time he played he memorably led the Titans to victory in OT. The Titans have won three straight since putting Young back into the lineup, although the schedule has softened considerably since he took over. Titans fans will be fully behind him if he can lead them to an upset win at Houston. The Texans are still trying to get over the hump from being a mediocre team, to a good team. This is a must win game for them.

Prediction: Houston 31, Tennessee 20

Rest of Week 11

Cleveland (1-8) at Detroit (1-8), Detroit favored by 3 1/2

Watching this game would be like watching a movie starring Nic Cage and Keanu Reeves, torture.

Prediction: Detroit 5, Cleveland 3

San Francisco (4-5) at Green Bay (5-4), Green Bay favored by 6 1/2

The 49ers got a much needed win against the Bears, but it didn't do much to inspire confidence that they are back to their early season form. QB Alex Smith doesn't look nearly as good as he did in that second half against Houston. WR Michael Crabtree has been a bright spot. The team hasn't shied away from getting the rookie involved and he seems to be developing some chemistry with Smith. The Packers looked a lot like the team I expected them to be in their dominating win over Dallas. The defense played very well, especially QB Charles Woodson. I grew to hate the Packers due to their dominating playoff performances over the 49ers in the 90's so it would only be fitting for them to put the nail in the 49ers playoff chances.

Prediction: Green Bay 26, San Francisco 17

Pittsburgh (6-3) at Kansas City (2-7), Pittsburgh favored by 10

The Steelers played like absolute garbage at home against the Bengals and made me lose to an 0-9 team in fantasy football. The Chiefs picked up another win but then found out they will be without their best player, WR Dwayne Bowe for the next four games for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Doesn't really matter much though, the Steelers were winning this game regardless.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 34, Kansas City 14

Seattle (3-6) at Minnesota (8-1), Minnesota favored by 11

The Saints may be 9-0 but I think the Vikings have proven they are the best team in the NFC. QB Brett Favre continues to play tremendously and the entire team has a Super Bowl feel around them. The Seahawks are on the down slide as this year has proven that even with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck rebuilding years are ahead for them.

Prediction: Minnesota 28, Seattle 20

Atlanta (5-4) at New York Giants (5-4), No Line

This game has huge playoff implications, not only for right now but in any possible tie-breakers between these teams when the season concludes. The Falcons have really disappointed since starting the year 4-1. QB Matt Ryan has not been playing well, and now the Falcons may be without RB Michael Turner for this game. The Giants had a much needed bye week after losing four in a row. New York is already in panic mode but it will be a state emergency if they lose this one.

Prediction: New York Giants 24, Atlanta 23

New Orleans (9-0) at Tampa Bay (1-8), New Orleans favored by 11 1/2

The Saints keep winning but they have definitely showed some chink in their armor. They may be caught looking ahead to next week's Monday night game against the Patriots, which will prevent them from blowing out the hapless Bucs.

Prediction: New Orleans 30, Tampa Bay 20

Buffalo (3-6) at Jacksonville (5-4), Jacksonville favored by 8 1/2

The Bills finally fired coach Dick Jauron and have now decided to go with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their QB. The Jaguars schedule is keeping them in the thick of the AFC playoff race. They aren't very good but they keep getting to play teams that aren't any better than them.

Prediction: Jacksonville 30, Buffalo 24

Arizona (6-3) at St. Louis (1-8), Arizona favored by 9

The Cardinals are quickly pulling away in the sorry NFC West and showing no signs of being hit with the Super Bowl loser curse of the 2000s. If the Niners lose and the Cardinals win, then the Niners can already start thinking about 2010, blargh.

Prediction: Arizona 34, St. Louis 17

San Diego (6-3) at Denver (6-3), No Line

How quickly things can change. After these teams met in San Diego the Broncos were 6-0, the Chargers 2-3, and the Broncos were looking like a sure bet to take the AFC West. But for the second straight season, the Broncos have collapsed and now with a loss to San Diego, the Chargers would be in first place in the AFC West. The Broncos might be without starting QB Kyle Orton in this one, and anyone who saw last weekend's game knows how bad Chris Simms is. The Chargers are hot, the Broncos are not, Chargers win.

Prediction: San Diego 27, Denver 13

Cincinnati (7-2) at Oakland (2-7), Cincinnati favored by 9 1/2

The Bengals are looking like one of the best teams in football but something about this game makes me nervous. It has trap game written all over it. The Raiders have finally pulled the plug on awful QB Jamarcus Russell. It has not been confirmed yet if the reason Russell isn't playing is due to poor performance or because coach Tom Cable beat the crap out of him.

Prediction: Cincinnati 20, Oakland 13

Last Week Against the Spread: 8-7
Overall Against the Spread: 76-67-1

Last Week Straight Up: 9-6
Overall Straight Up: 90-54

I would be remiss if I did not give a shout out to Ron Burgundy FC. They defeated the undefeated Black Mambas 1-0 on Wednesday night. The Mambas entered the game 11-0, and had outscored their opponents 46-8. Burgundy was short handed for the game, missing their usual goal keeper and relying on just one male sub. They played the best game I have ever seen them play. I have a feeling me wearing my Champ Kind RB jersey had something to do with the win!

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