Friday, August 21, 2009

2009 NFL Previews - NFC North

A lot of drama in the NFC North this off-season.
The Chicago Bears finally got a good QB in the form of petulant Jay Cutler. The Minnesota Vikings are hoping 39-year old Brett Favre has one last year of glory left in him, and the Detroit Lions drafted QB Matthew Stafford, while ignoring other pressing issues, ensuring that Stafford might be dead by Week 7. The Green Bay Packers were quiet on the QB front, but improved their defense considerably.

1. Minnesota Vikings

2008 Record: 10-6, NFC North champs
Coach: Brad Childress (4th year Minnesota, 24-25 career)

Schedule: http://www.profootball-fans.com/nfl-schedule/minnesota-vikings.html
Key Additions: QB Brett Favre, QB Sage Rosenfels, WR Percy Harvin

Key Losses: C Matt Birk, QB Gus Frerotte, S Darren Sharper


2009 Outlook: Last season, the Minnesota Vikings won the NFC North and made it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2004. However, they were beaten at home by the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round. The blame for that loss was pinned on QB Tavaris Jackson, who has continually underperformed since being the starter. Word came in June that recently released QB Brett Favre and the Vikings were talking. Months of speculation and over coverage ensued until Favre told the Vikings that he didn't trust he could up for a 16 game season and was going to stay retired. However, three weeks later here we are, with Brett Favre as the starting QB for the Vikings. Favre played well last season for the New York Jets for the first 11 games, then imploded and was the main reason for the Jets late season collapse. With his recent surgery the Vikings are counting on having the Favre from those 11 games. What Favre has in his favor in Minnesota is the running game he inherits. The Vikings have one of the most fearsome one-two combination in the league, led by Purple Jesus Adrian Peterson, and backed up by Chester Taylor. Peterson is not infallible, as he has a fumbling problem. Favre will likely throw a high amount of interceptions so the Vikings will need Peterson to cut down on the fumbles so they avoid being a turnover machine. The Vikings drafted WR Percy Harvin in April and his skills and the many ways the Vikings could use him is enticing. Hopefully WR Sidney Rice can finally start to live up to some of the potential he has. TE Visanthe Schiancoe is a very good target and I expect Favre and him to become a potent combo. The Vikings defense is a major reason many think they could be Super Bowl contenders. Led by DE Jared Allen and DTs Pat and Kevin Williams the Vikings are almost impossible to run against. The Vikings weakness had been their pass defense but they improved last year, led by CB Antoine Winfield. I don't think Favre will be amazing but he doesn't have to be. He will be a noticeable improvement over Jackson, the defense will continue to get better and the Vikings will ride it to another division title.

Prediction: 11-5

2. Green Bay Packers

2008 Record: 6-10, 3rd place in NFC North
Coach: Mike McCarthy (4th year Green Bay, 28-22 career)

Schedule: http://www.profootball-fans.com/nfl-schedule/green-bay-packers.html

Key Additions: DT B.J. Raji, LB Clay Matthews, S Anthony Smith

Key Losses: DT Colin Cole


2009 Outlook:
2008 was a strange season for the Packers. The nervousness about QB Aaron Rodgers replacing Favre turned out to be unfounded. He had a fantastic season and helped the Packers be very successful on offense. However, Ryan Grant and the running game were almost non-existent and the defense was atrocious. All of that led to a disappointing 6-10 season. The Packers knew they had to improve the defense to get back to the playoffs and they addressed it in the draft. The drafting of DT B.J. Raji and LB Clay Matthews will go a long way towards a Packers revival this year. It frustrates me to no end that the 49ers had a chance to draft Rodgers and passed on him. Rodgers will have another prolific year throwing to WRs Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. Grant needs to stay healthy this year and when he plays actually be productive. The defense was decimated by injuries last year CB Al Harris, S Atari Bigby, LB Nick Barnett, and DL Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. I don't believe they will suffer the same fate two years in a row and with those players back healthy I think the Packers have the potential for a top ten defense. I hate the Packers but I really expect them to be much improved this year.

Prediction: 11-5

3. Chicago Bears

2008 Record: 9-7, 2nd place in NFC North
Coach: Lovie Smith (6th year Chicago, 47-37 career)
Schedule: http://www.profootball-fans.com/nfl-schedule/chicago-bears.html

Key Additions: QB Jay Cutler, OT Orlando Pace, OT Kevin Shaffer

Key Losses: QB Kyle Orton, QB Rex Grossman, OT John Tait, OT John St. Clair


2009 Outlook:
The Chicago Bears were 9-7 last year and narrowly missed out on the playoffs, but they didn't really feel like a team going anywhere. The defense had faltered drastically from its dominance in 2006, and while QB Kyle Orton played pretty well, no one in Chicago was convinced that he could lead them to a Super Bowl. With this in mind the Bears boldly traded away most of their draft this year to get Broncos QB Jay Cutler. For the first time in what seems like forever the Bears have someone who could be a franchise quarterback. Cutler is very young and has shown a ton of promise in his first few years. He put up some huge numbers with the Broncos and is an exciting player to watch. He joins a world class RB in Matt Forte. The Bears catch a lot of grief for their poor draft history but the pick of Forte last season proved to be tremendous. Forte was a threat not only as a back, but as a receiver out of the backfield. He is the main reason the Bears were even able to win 9 games. The wide receiving corps is a major concern for Chicago. WR Devin Hester played his first full season at the position last year and while he looked good at times, he looked terrible at others. Beyond Hester the Bears don't have much else, which means TEs Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark will have to have big seasons. On defense the Bears have showed their age in recent years and have become mediocre to almost downright bad. The Bears didn't address the defense in the off-season and they will now be a year older, which means a year slower, and a year worse. The move for Cutler was a necessary one even if I think the Bears gave up too much. They have more talent this year but I expect them to be far worse. I think the defense will be a huge weakness, Cutler's lack of receiving options will lead to a less than stellar year from him, and an 0-3 start will contribute to a highly disappointing season in Chicago.

Prediction: 6-10

4. Detroit Lions

2008 Record: 0-16, last place in NFC North
Coach: Jim Schwartz (1st year Detroit, 0-0 career)

Schedule: http://www.profootball-fans.com/nfl-schedule/detroit-lions.html

Key Additions: QB Matthew Stafford, TE Brandon Pettigrew, RB Maurice Morris, WR Bryant Johnson, OT Jon Jansen, LB Julian Peterson, CB Phillip Buchanon, CB Anthony Henry, DT Grady Jackson, LB Larry Foote

Key Losses: QB Jon Kitna, QB Dan Orlovsky, WR Shaun McDonald, G Edwin Mulitalo, CB Leigh Bodden, DT Shaun Cody, DT Cory Redding


2009 Outlook:
0-16. That's about all that needs to be said for the Detroit Lions and the 2008 season. With their winless season the Lions cemented themselves in history as the worst team ever to play in the NFL. The Lions made a head coaching change, bringing in Titans Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz. The new regime led to a mass exodus of players, however, none were really valuable. Many felt the Lions should address their offensive line in the draft but instead they chose to take the riskiest route and draft QB Matthew Stafford. Stafford is competing with QB Daunte Culpepper for the starting job and might have lost his grip on it following a poor performance against Cleveland on Saturday. The Lions also drafted TE Branndon Pettigrew, and signed RB Maurice Morris. The only new addition to the offensive line was Washington Redskins cast off Jon Jansen. Despite their ineptness the Lions do possess one of the top wide receivers in the game, Calvin Johnson. Johnson is an absolute beast and seemingly can thrive no matter what lousy quarterback is throwing him the ball. The Lions are hoping that Schwartz can help to improve a defense that was comically bad last season. They added a ton of new pieces to the defense, LB Julian Peterson, CB Phillip Buchanon, CB Anthony Henry, DT Grady Jackson, LB Larry Foote all will be counted on to make the defense competitive. I definitely think the Lions will win a game this year, with Cleveland and St. Louis being their greatest chances.

Prediction: 3-13


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