Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Carolina Blue

#3 North Carolina (21-2, 7-2) at #5 Duke (20-3, 7-2)

To the right you will see one of my proudest moments as a sports fan. I made the trip to the hallowed grounds of Cameron Indoor Stadium to see my alma mater George Mason play Duke in 2006. Long before I attended George Mason the North Carolina Tar Heels had been my favorite team. I came to the stadium in my Mason jersey but underneath I had on my Carolina jersey. One cool thing at Cameron was that after the game you could walk on the court. I immediately took advantage of this and sat on the Duke bench with my Carolina colors on.

Not many rivalries would inspire such behavior out of me but Duke/Carolina is special. Despite having two Grandfather's that graduated from Duke I have always hated them. I think my hatred of Duke led to my love of Carolina. If you're going to hate a team, why not love their most hated rival? As a Carolina fan I have enjoyed mocking Duke and their fans for many of their NBA flameouts (while quickly dismissing Joe Forte), and also recently for their lack of success in the NCAA Tournament. Even sweeter is when Carolina wins in Cameron. I won't soon forget Carolina making JJ Redick cry on Senior night as an unheralded Carolina team beat Duke, or last season when Carolina withstood Duke's best and pulled away for a win, silencing the Cameron Crazies.

As is usually the case both teams are highly ranked coming into this one. Carolina has won 7 in a row after a rough start to the ACC schedule, while Duke has struggled a bit of late. They were completley embarrassed at Clemson a week ago and needed a furious rally to beat an unranked Miami team at home. The winner of this game will be all alone in first place in the ACC.

The key player for Carolina tonight will of course be F Tyler Hansbrough. His senior class can finish 4-0 at Cameron with a win tonight, a feat that hasn't been accomplished by many classes. His job will be to help contain Duke F Kyle Singler, who leads Duke in scoring and rebounding averaging 15.8 points and 8.2 rebounds. Carolina wins by outscoring teams, while Duke primarily relies on the 3 point shot. If Duke's 3 pointers aren't falling they turn into quite frankly a medicore team. I don't anticipate Carolina using their defense to cause Duke to struggle from 3 tonight but Duke's shooters, including guards Jon Scheyer and Greg Paulus can be spotty on their own. If those two struggle and G Ty Lawson and G-F Danny Green can have a productive game there is no doubt that Carolina will win. However, this is easier said than done as Duke plays relentless defense, only giving up 61 points a game.

The crowd at Cameron Indoor will be a factor early, Carolina can't fall behind by too much or the atmosphere may be to tough to overcome. The key in Carolina's three straight wins at Cameron has been they have hung around early and then pulled away at the end. These players won't be as intimated as others are at Cameron but to completely disregard the crowd would be silly.

I think tonight's game will be another classic in this storied rivalry, I think Hansbrough will play one of his better games, in his final chance to perform at Cameron and I believe Duke's shooting will fail them when they need it most, towards the end of the game. Of course, I am biased but I think it is safe to say that if Duke wins tonight it will be an upset.

Prediction: North Carolina 80, Duke 77

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