2015 NBA Playoffs - Western Conference First Round

Best Series: #3 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #6 San Antonio

This is going to be a fantastic and fun series to watch. The Clippers can shed the talk about them the past few seasons that they are a good regular season team but can't take the next step in the playoffs. Even just winning a playoff series wouldn't necessarily change that perception for people, but if they knock off the defending champions, that will earn people's respect.

Both of these teams are playing their best basketball of the year, which means fans can expect peak performances and the best matchup possible from both sides. Chris Paul versus Tony Parker and Blake Griffin versus Tim Duncan are two fantastic battles. It is such a classic battle of youth versus veteran influence. The advantage as far as athleticism obviously will go with Paul and Griffin in those battles, but basketball isn't only about athleticism. The advantage in smarts goes to the Spurs veterans who are so battle tested that a matchup like this they could almost handle in their sleep. We even get to see a Duke versus Carolina battle with shooting guard J.J. Redick going against Spurs shooting guard Danny Green. DeAndre Jordan makes a ton of wow plays, but his counterpart Thiago Splitter makes the smart plays. Then you have the wildness of Matt Barnes, against the calm demeanor and workmanlike approach of Kawhi Leonard.

The Spurs get a ton of contributions off the bench from Marco Belinelli. Manu Ginobli and Boris Diaw. The Clippers bench will counter with chucker Jamal Crawford, and Spencer Hawes, but the Spurs will definitely have the depth advantage. This series will not just be an exhibition in great basketball and athleticism but also the psychology of the game. Two coaches with NBA titles, Gregg Popovich and Doc Rivers will try to outwit each other and Rivers will try to will an effort out of his players that they haven't been able to give in the past.


Lowest Seed to Advance: #6 San Antonio

The defending champions were underwhelming for a large portion of the season, but caught fire towards the end of the year. They are peaking at just the right time and remind me of the #6 seed Houston Rockets that won the NBA title in 1995. They will be highly dangerous in the playoffs and I fully expect them to reach the Western Conference Finals and engage in a classic battle with the Warriors.


Best One on One Matchup: Rockets SG James Harden vs. Mavericks SG Monta Ellis

If the Oklahoma City Thunder had managed to make the playoffs then this would have easily gone to Russell Westbrook facing Steph Curry. Now, the mantle for best one on one matchup in the First Round of the Western Conference playoffs involves another MVP candidate James Harden, as he faces Monta Ellis. Neither player is known for their defense, although Harden did make a concerted effort to improve on that side of the floor. Ellis was excellent for the Mavs, averaging 19 points a game. He led the Mavericks in scoring, a mantle long held by Dirk Nowitzki. For the Mavericks to upset Houston, Ellis will have to keep the scoring pace with Harden. Harden was incredible this season, carrying a Rockets team without Dwight Howard for the majority of the season to 56 wins. Everyone talks about Harden's scoring, but as a shooting guard he still averaged 7 assists per game and did a great job of getting his teammates involved. These two players will show the best that offense has to offer in the NBA and will be highly entertaining.


Predictions:

#1 Golden State Warriors over #8 New Orleans Pelicans, 4-1

#5 Memphis Grizzlies over #4 Portland Trail Blazers, 4-2

#2 Houston Rockets over #7 Dallas Mavericks, 4-3

#6 San Antonio Spurs over #3 Los Angeles Clippers, 4-2

2015 NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference First Round

Best Series: #4 Toronto vs. #5 Washington

The Raptors message for the playoffs will be that maybe they don't have the defense to win a championship, but they have the offense to at least win a first round series. Toronto finished fourth in the NBA in scoring, averaging 104 points per game. However, they also gave up triple digits in points per game, and that has been creeping up as an issue as Toronto limped to the finish line.

The Wizards jumped out to a fast start this season but they also played a lot of medicore to bad teams during that time. Once the schedule got harder the Wizards struggled and things got so bad at times that there was talk that Washington should fire coach Randy Wittman. They have battled various injuries throughout the season, especially SG Bradley Beal, but they enter the playoffs as healthy as they have been. 

The Raptors leading scorer is SG DeMar DeRozan. He will be matched up with the Wizards Bradley Beal. I will detail it more later on in this post but Kyle Lowry versus John Wall will the ultimate matchup to watch. Both teams have equally skilled big men, with Marcin Gortat of the Wizards and Jonas Valanciunas. SF Terrence Ross and PF Amir Johnson round out the Raptors starting five and will face off with SF Paul Pierce and PF Nene. Kris Humphries, Otto Porter Jr., Drew Gooden and Ramon Sessions figure to be part of Wittman's playoff rotation. Patrick Patterson and Greivis Vasquez are the Raptors strongest bench contributors.

The Wizards have a far different identity from the Raptors. They are an average offensive team but very strong defensively. Normally, defense wins out, but I think homecourt advantage will make the difference in this series, as Toronto edges Washington in a thrilling series.


Lowest Seed to Advance: #4 Toronto

I don't foresee any upsets in the First Round. The most competitive series will be Toronto versus Washington, with Milwaukee versus Chicago as the next most competitive series. I think the youth and lack of playoff experience for Boston will make them fall short in stealing a game from LeBron James and Cleveland, while Brooklyn will be lucky to win one game against the Atlanta Hawks.


Best One on One Matchup: Raptors PG Kyle Lowry vs. Wizards PG John Wall

I know this has been a Raptors/Wizards heavy post but it is the only truly intriguing series in the East. Sure seeing Celtics vs. Cavs will be fun for nostalgic reasons but the Celtics are no match for Cleveland. Kyle Lowry missed a few weeks recently with a back injury but returned to the lineup April 10th and appears to have shaken off any rust he had. Lowry averaged 18 points, 7 assists and 5 boards this year. He played well against Wall and the Wizards in the regular season and made some crucial plays down the wire in tight games. Wall rested for most of the last week of the regular season, so he should be raring to go when the series tips off Saturday. Wall also played well against Lowry this season and you can expect both players to come out firing in this series. Wall averaged 18 points as well this season but also had 10 assists per game, giving him the slight advantage over Lowry. Neither player can single-handedly lead their team to victory but whoever wins this one-on-one battle will go a long way to helping their team win.


Predictions:

#1 Atlanta Hawks over #8 Brooklyn Nets, 4-1


#4 Toronto Raptors over #5 Washington Wizards, 4-3

#2 Cleveland Cavaliers over #7 Boston Celtics, 4-0

#3 Chicago Bulls over #6 Milwaukee Bucks, 4-2

NCAA Men's Championship - Indianapolis, Indiana

#1 Wisconsin (36-3) vs. #1 Duke (34-4)

Most fans probably wanted this game to be Kentucky versus Duke, but I'm happier with this matchup. Wisconsin proved what I long believed, that they were a better team than Kentucky. But all the good will from them ending Kentucky's bid at history will mean nothing if they don't finish the job tonight.

Duke trailed Michigan State 14-6 early in the Final Four and then completely dominated the game the rest of the way. It was quite obvious that the Spartans had nowhere near the caliber of player that Duke was throwing at them.

Wisconsin led Kentucky most of the way in their Final Four matchup but the Wildcats rallied late to take a four point lead. The Badgers didn't fold and Kentucky's offense was a comedy of errors the last few minutes, while Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky led the way for Wisconsin to pull off the "upset".

These teams played each other in December with Duke winning in Madison 80-70. However, I don't expect that game to mean much of anything tonight. Wisconsin is sky high after beating the Cats and Dekker has been shooting out of his mind in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils have a hot player of their own, F Justise Winslow. Sparty had no answer for Winslow, along with any other team Duke has faced in the Tournament this year. After a quiet Sweet 16 and Elite 8, Jahlil Okafor resumed being one of the most dominant players in college basketball against Michigan State. Senior guard Quinn Cook had his fifth consecutive double digit scoring game and his second straight game with zero turnovers. Even bench player Grayson Allen got in on the scoring, including a classic white boy dunk. Allen will have zero impact on tonight's game and I expect both teams to exhaust their starters and leave it all out on the floor. The most intriguing matchup in this game will be the battle down low between Kaminsky and Okafor. Kaminsky had no problems against the bigs of Kentucky and has experience playing Okafor so there will be no intimidation factor. Winslow will have his hands full with Nigel Hayes and Dekker. Hayes was off and on against Kentucky and sometimes when he shoots the ball you want to scream at him for taking such a dumb shot. Dekker disappeared from the Badgers offense too much on Saturday, so Wisky has to a better job of keeping him constantly involved tonight.

Duke has the advantage at the guard position with Cook, Tyus and Matt Jones. Bronson Koenig made some big shots on Saturday but became a little too shot happy and at times messed up the flow of the Badgers offense. Josh Gasser didn't play very well on Saturday and with the skill that Duke has at the guard position he needs to be much better tonight. Traevon Jackson will see some time off the bench but he is still getting his flow of being back in the lineup, so Koenig should continue to receive the majority of the playing time.

Kaminsky, Dekker and Hayes will be able to neutralize Okafor and Winslow. I think Cook and the Jones' will have strong games tonight but I also think that Wisconsin will be able to force them into turnovers and also mitigate their impact. The people talking about how Wisconsin will have nothing left after beating Kentucky on Saturday are foolish. Kaminsky didn't come back this year to just beat Kentucky, he came back to win a title and will have plenty left to give to the Badgers. Wisconsin has won their last four tournament games by seven points so I am picking that streak to continue, as the Badgers win their first national championship in 74 years.

Prediction: Wisconsin 75, Duke 68

2015 Final Four - Indianapolis, Indiana

#7 Michigan State (27-11) vs. #1 Duke (33-4)

The legend of Tom Izzo continues to grow as he has steered another Spartans team to the Final Four. Nevermind that he hasn't won a title in 15 years, the man that can't recruit or beat Coach K or Roy Williams is a genius! Snark aside, the consistent run of success by Michigan State is impressive. They trailed Oklahoma and Louisville for most of their games last week but managed to pull out victories each time.

Senior guard Travis Trice has been the unquestioned leader of this Spartans run. He is averaging almost 20 points per game in the Tournament and has also been careful with the ball, turning it over 2 times or less in the Spartans last three games. Aside from his performance against Virginia, junior Denzel Valentine has been there to complement Trice. G Bryn Forbes played huge minutes coming off the bench against Louisville in the Elite Eight. Branden Dawson cleans up Trice, Forbes and Valentine's messes, averaging 9 rebounds a game in the Tournament. Other members of the Spartans frequent rotation includes forward Gavin Schilling, guard Lourawls Nairn Jr, also known as Tum Tum, forward Matt Costello, and forward Marvin Clark Jr. Outside of Valentine, the Spartans don't have too many bigs, or guys to clean up down low and that could be a problem against Jahlil Okafor and Duke. However, Sparty shoots the ball so well that it hasn't often been an issue. When these teams met way back when on November 18, an 81-71 Duke victory, Dawson, Valentine and Trice played well but the rest of the Spartans didn't too much. Michigan State did shoot 50% but Duke shot even better at 54%, and the difference was Duke hit 50% of their three pointers while Michigan State hit just 25%.

The Blue Devils outlasted Utah in an ugly game, and then pulled away from Gonzaga in the second half to reach their first Final Four in five years. Most impressive about Duke's wins over Utah and Gonzaga was that Jahlil Okafor didn't contribute very much to either of them. The best player on the floor for Duke in those games was F Justise Winslow. Winslow and Dawson will be a fun matchup to watch on the blocks. G Tyus Jones and Trice will set the pace for each of their teams respectively and attempt to get the upper hand against each other. The Spartans can't overlook Blue Devils sophomore guard Matt Jones, who erupted for 16 points against Gonzaga. The other guard, Quinn Coke had a team high 19 points in the November win against Michigan State, and handed out 6 assists with 0 turnovers. If he plays nearly that well on Saturday, the Spartans magical run is definitely ending. Okafor was quiet last week but with his size advantage against the Spartans, I expect to see a more dominant effort like he put up against them in the first meeting. Duke's limited bench has been an exhausted talking point all season, but it hasn't really hampered them 37 games into the season, so I don't expect it to now. However, if they go on to play Kentucky in Monday's final, they will be tough pressed to beat the Wildcats with their potentially 10 deep rotation.

You can't take too much from November's matchup as where a team is in April compared to then is nothing alike. I expect the Spartans to follow their pattern from last week and get out of the blocks slowly and then crawl back and make a game of it. However, unlike Oklahoma and Louisville, Duke will go into another gear and pull away with the victory and get back to their first NCAA title game since their last championship in 2010.

Prediction: Duke 77, Michigan State 70


#1 Wisconsin (35-3) vs. #1 Kentucky (38-0)

For the second straight season its the Badgers and the Wildcats in the Final Four. Last season, Andrew Harrison hit a three late in the game to propel Kentucky to the upset and the Championship game. The circumstances are quite different this year, as Kentucky enters 38-0 and favorites to finish the season 40-0. The Badgers have lost just three games this season and guys like Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker remember last season's excruciating loss. Kaminsky specifically returned for his senior season because he wanted to avenge that loss.

The Badgers run this year has felt like a do over of their 2014 Tournament run. This year and last year they beat Oregon in the Round of 32, and this year and last year they defeated Arizona in the Elite Eight. The star for the Badgers last week wasn't Kaminsky, but Dekker. As the entire Badgers team struggled in the Sweet 16 against North Carolina, Dekker played his heart out, keeping Wisconsin in the game and eventually helping the Badgers pull off the win. Then against Arizona, Dekker hit an incredibly tough three pointer late in the game to ice the win for Wisconsin. He had no problems dealing with Carolina's size so I don't expect the monsters that Kentucky has to faze him too much. Kaminsky really struggled against Carolina the first half, but since that first half, he has played Player of the Year type basketball that people are used to seeing from him. Dekker and Kaminsky did the heavy lifting and it was enough to beat Arizona but guys like Bronson Koenig, Nigel Hayes and Josh Gasser will have to do more for the Badgers to pull off the major upset. Traveon Jackson returned after missing 19 games in the Sweet 16 but played less than 10 minutes in both the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, so he can't really be counted on. Wisconsin doesn't have nearly the depth Kentucky has, so fatigue will be something to watch in this game as Kentucky throws their waves of players onto the court.

After obliterating West Virginia in the Sweet 16, Kentucky trailed Notre Dame for most of their Elite 8 encounter, before once again Andrew Harrison hit a clutch three pointer late, and the Wildcats escaped with a two point win. Andrew and his brother Aaron don't score a ton but Andrew especially is a player Kentucky can always count on late in games. The most surprising part of Kentucky's game against Notre Dame was how easily the Irish's big man Zach Auguste dominated the game. August was just one rebound shy of a double double despite battling massive men like Willey Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns and Stein combined for just 9 rebounds in that game, and they need to up the aggressiveness in Indianapolis for Kentucky to reach 40-0. Interestingly, the the game as tight as it was, Kentucky coach John Calipari played only a 7 man rotation. Backup guards Devin Booker Tyler Ullis played a lot of minutes but Marcus Lee and Dakari Johnson hardly played. To me even with the game close, it isn't like Lee and Johnson haven't played in big games before, Calipari needs to get them into the action, because no team has a prayer of staying as fresh as Kentucky does.

The game against Notre Dame further reiterated what I already knew, that despite being unbeaten Kentucky isn't some juggernaut that can't be touched. No one can match their talent, but this is a team of a lot of freshman and sophomores. They will be playing a Wisconsin team with tons of veteran leadership and almost as much talent. Like Notre Dame did, I expect Wisconsin to punch Kentucky in the mouth early and quickly let them know they are in for a dogfight. But unlike Notre Dame, Wisconsin won't panic late and get away from their offense, or have one of their players try to play hero ball. I picked Wisconsin to beat Kentucky in this game three weeks ago and I see no reason to change my mind. The undefeated dream will come to an end for Kentucky and Wisconsin will reach their first National Championship game since 1941.

Prediction: Wisconsin 75, Kentucky 72

2015 March Madness (South and East Regions) - Sweet 16 and Elite 8

South Regional Semi-Final in Houston, TX

#11 UCLA (22-13) vs. #2 Gonzaga (34-2)

After being told they didn't belong in the NCAA Tournament, UCLA knocked off SMU and UAB to reach the Sweet 16. They did it mostly on the back of coach Steve Alford's son, Bryce Alford. Alford has been lethal from three point range in the Tournament, shooting 12 for 16 in two games. They will need an almost equal performance from him tonight if they are to upset the Zags.

You always hear about the importance of guard play in the NCAA Tournament and that explains why UCLA is still playing. In addition to Alford, the Bruins have senior and leading scorer Norman Powell, as well as Isaac Hamilton. Down in the blocks are Kevon Looney and Tony Parker. Parker went ham on UAB scoring 28 points but against SMU he had just 3 points, and I would expect a performance similar to that since Parker will be dealing with Kyle Wiltjer. The Bruins are a balanced offensive team, with five players averaging double figures in scoring. The problem for UCLA is that they don't have much depth and most of their bench has trouble scoring.

The Bulldogs are led by the aforementioned Wiltjer and senior guard Kevin Pangos. Pangos shoots 45% from three point range, so we might see an impromptu three point contest between him and Alford. Gonzaga is an all around team, they lead the country in field goal percentage and rank 50th in points allowed per game. Down in the blocks with Wiltjer is Domantas Sabonis. If the name Sabonis sounds familiar it is because he is the son of former Portland Trail Blazer center Arvydas Sabonis.

Unless Alford hits about ten three pointers, I don't think UCLA can get the necessary stops on defense to upset Gonzaga. The Zags do a great job of getting the ball inside and getting easy looks, and even when forced to shoot from outside, they have a marksman in Pangos. Gonzaga also has much more depth than UCLA and that will be a huge factor as Gonzaga reaches their first Elite 8 under Mark Few.

Prediction: Gonzaga 74, UCLA 66


East Regional Semi-Final in Syracuse, NY

#8 North Carolina State (22-13) vs. #4 Louisville (26-8)

NC State had quite the adventurous first week in the NCAA Tournament. They overcame a 14-point halftime deficit to defeat LSU at the buzzer. Then they pulled off one of the biggest upsets to date in the NCAA Tournament when they knocked out fraudy #1 seed Villanova. Although to be fair, you wouldn't have been surprised by that upset if you had read my post last week. Now they face fellow ACC foe Louisivlle in a rematch from Valentine's Day, when NC State dominated the Cardinals on the road, winning 74-65, and it was a win that served as a turning point for the Wolfpack's season.

Guards Anthony Barber and Trevor Lacey had their way with the Cardinals in that game. Ralston Turner has been another consistent scorer for NC State this season, but he struggled in that game and has struggled thus far in the Tournament. The Wolfpack aren't really known for their defense but they have played solid defense so far in the Tournament and against Louisville in February held them to just 32% shooting. Louisville has had trouble scoring this season and is one of the worst shooting teams in the country. However, they have been successful this season thanks to their defense.

In their wins over California Irvine and Northern Iowa, the Cardinals gave up an average of 54 points. The biggest reason that Louisville lost to NC State earlier this season was their two leading scorers, G Terry Rozier and F Montrezl Harrell didn't show up on the offensive end. Chris Jones and Wayne Blackshear played well, but for Louisville to outscore the Wolfpack they need all of their offensive weapons to show up.

The East region opened up with both Villanova and Virginia going down the first weekend. The Wolfpack know they can beat Louisville and it wasn't just a fluke home win. I think NC State will end up dictating the pace, but the Cardinals scorers will be up to the challenge and enable Louisville to enact revenge for the February defeat.

Prediction: Louisville 75, North Carolina State 73


South Regional Semi-Final in Houston, TX

#5 Utah (26-8) vs. #1 Duke (31-4)

The Blue Devils cruised to the Sweet 16, blowing out Robert Morris and San Diego State. Jahlil Okafor was unstoppable, averaging 23.5 points in the two victories. The competition figures to be steeper tonight against the Utes of Utah. The Utes got past Stephen F. Austin and after a slow start cruised past Georgetown. They have one of the most exciting guards in the country in Delon Wright. Wright uncharacteristically struggled shooting in the Utes wins but still found other ways to contribute. He was all over the court grabbing rebounds, stealing the ball and dishing out assists.

The Utes might have an answer for Okafor in an outstanding freshman of their own, Jakob Poeltl. Poeltl averaged 15 points in the Utes victories and he was able to score 12 points in just 18 minutes of action against the Hoyas. Utah has a deep rotation of players and much more depth than the Blue Devils. Wright and Poeltl are the leaders but the Utes also receive contributions from Jordan Loveridge, Brandon Taylor and backup C Dallin Bachynski, another seven footer. Okafor may never have had to work as hard as he will have to work tonight going against the Utes bigs.

Wright will be matched up against the Blue Devils excellent backcourt of Quin Cook and Tyus Jones. Along with Okafor, Cook and Jones the Blue Devils start Matt Jones and Justise Winslow. Beyond that, not many other Blue Devils will see the floor. Even in the blowout win over the Aztecs, all five Duke starters logged over 30 minutes. The biggest challenge Duke figures to face in this game is the wave of players that Utah can throw at them.

Utah is a very tough matchup for Duke, with their size and depth. Tyus Jones will have his work cut out for him going against Wright. This is a true statement game for Okafor as he goes up against the Utes bigs. I think Okafor is the real deal and it is because of him that I am confident Duke can overcome this challenge and pull out a hard fought win.

Prediction: Duke 70, Utah 66


East Regional Semi-Final in Syracuse, NY

#7 Michigan State (25-11) vs. #3 Oklahoma (24-10)

The Spartans bandwagon is filling up quickly as Tom Izzo once again his team playing deep into March. If you listen to the media you are to never bet against Izzo in March, except you know when he coaches against Roy Williams or doesn't win a national title like he hasn't since 2000. The Spartans held off Georgia and then beat a Virginia team that couldn't hit the broadside of the barn in either field goal attempts or foul shots. The Sooners held off Albany and then won a pseudo road game against Dayton in Columbus, Ohio, overcoming a late deficit.

Oklahoma is better offensively than Virginia but their leading scorer Buddy Hield has been struggling. Hield is shooting just 10 of 29 in two Tournament games, but he was still able to make an impact in the Dayton game because he was able to get to the free throw line. To counteract the Spartans attack Hield is going to have to hit his shot at more consistent rate. If he misses, he at least knows that Ryan Spangler will be there to clean up his messes. Spangler averaged 8 boards a game this season and 23 rebounds in two games last week. TaShawn Thomas is the other Sooners big, and those two will have a distinct advantage going up against the Spartans Branden Dawson. Sooners guard Isaiah Cousins has been quiet thus far in the Tournament and like Heild has been struggling shooting.

Guards Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine shoulder the load for the Spartans. In fact, despite being listed as a guard, Valentine is second on the Spartans, averaging 6.5 rebounds per game this season. The Spartans are right up there with Kentucky as far as depth goes, and their rotation can sometimes go 10 deep. That allows Michigan State to play ultra physical defense, as they don't have to really fear harsh consequences if a player fouls out. F Matt Costello and G Bryn Forbes tend to log heavy minutes coming off the bench.

With so many people picking the Spartans, it makes me feel like going in a different direction. I really liked the resolve Oklahoma showed winning against Dayton in the midst of a partisan crowd. They won't be rocked by the Spartans physical style and I expect them to shoot much better than the Cavaliers did. I know that Hield and Cousins have been struggling but I expect a breakout game from at least one of them in this contest.

Prediction: Oklahoma 69, Michigan State 65

Gonzaga's dreams of finally reaching a Final Four will be dashed by the Blue Devils, as Okafor will outplay Wiltjer. The Sooners will reach the Final Four for the first time since 2002 by defeating Louisville in a close game, putting Sooners coach Lon Kruger back in the Final Four for the first time since 1994.

2015 March Madness (West and Midwest Regions) - Sweet 16 and Elite 8

Midwest Regional Semi-Final in Cleveland, OH

#7 Wichita State (30-4) vs. #3 Notre Dame (31-5)

The Shockers versus the Catholics will be a good old fashioned defense versus offense battle. Wichita State ranked 9th in the nation in points allowed per game, while the Irish ranked 12th in points scored, averaging almost 80 per game. The Shockers slipped past Indiana, and then had one of the most satisfying wins in program history when they crushed Kansas in the Third Round. Guard Ron Baker led the Shockers in scoring during the regular season, but it was fellow guard Fred Van Vleet that carried the load last weekend. Fellow guard Tekele Cotton had an unexpected impact in the game against Kansas, scoring 19 points against the Jayhawks. The Shockers leading rebounder this season was F Darius Carter, who averaged just a little over 5 boards a game.

That lack of size could present problems for the Shockers tonight. Notre Dame ranks low in rebounds but that is partially because they shot the ball so well. G-F Pat Connaughton averaged 7.4 rebounds per game and F Zach Auguste averages almost 7 rebounds per game. The best player on the floor will be Irish guard Jerian Grant. Grant leads Notre Dame in scoring and assists, and has been held to single digit scoring just twice this season. The Irish were a bad team this year, mostly due to Grant's absence and their quick turnaround is evidence of how important he is to the team. The Irish got a huge lift from G Steve Vasturia in their overtime win over Butler, after he was non-existent in their close win over Northeastern. The Shockers will need to keep a close eye on G Demetrius Jackson, who shoots over 40% from three point range.

Ultimately, I expect Wichita State's defense to keep this game low scoring, but the Irish have been battle tested all season long and will be ready to win an ugly game. The Shockers will have a bit of a letdown after the Kansas game, and while I think they will be ready to play, I think energy wise they will be down from the fire we saw last Sunday. Grant will be prove to be the difference maker, making some key shots late to key the Irish win.

Prediction: Notre Dame 62, Wichita State 58


West Regional Semi-Final in Los Angeles, CA

#4 North Carolina (26-11) vs. #1 Wisconsin (33-3)

Wisconsin breezed past Coastal Carolina and then made a late charge to push past Oregon to reach the Sweet 16. National Player of the Year front-runner F Frank "The Tank" Kaminsky dominated Coastal, and while not as dominant against the Ducks, was a key force in the Badgers victory. It will be fun watching Kaminsky go up against the size that North Carolina will throw at him. Unfortunately for the Heels they might be missing one key player, as Kennedy Meeks is battling an ankle injury he suffered in the Third Round win over Arkansas last Saturday. Meeks presence is vital to Carolina's hopes of springing the upset, even if he just serves the role of another body that can get physical and afford to foul Kaminsky.

Kaminsky receives all the attention but F Sam Dekker is another key cog in the Badgers machine. The Heels will need to try to force Dekker outside of the lane, as he shoots just 30% from three point land. When he is able to penetrate he is deadly, hitting over 50% of his shots. Sophomore F Nigel Hayes has really come on in recent weeks for Wisconsin, providing more scoring on the offensive end, and remaining a presence for opponents to deal with on the block. Another dangerous offensive player for Wisconsin is G Bronson Koenig, who shoots over 40% from three point range. Koenig has really stepped up his game since having to replace the injured Traevon Jackson. There is a slight chance that Jackson plays in this game, but even if he does, he will be so rusty that I wouldn't expect him to make much of a difference. This isn't old school Wisconsin, they have plenty of offensive talent and don't get by just on defense.

The Heels nearly blew a 16 point lead against Harvard before holding on to a victory and then beat Arkansas in a track meet in the Third Round. Marcus Paige was the difference in that game in the second half for Carolina, while freshman Justin Jackson continues to shoot better and better as the year has rolled on. Jackson is a much less refined version of Kaminsky, a taller player that can play like a guard and has the shot to back it up. Whether Meeks plays or not, Joel James should see heavy minutes off the bench, as I expect Roy Williams to try all sorts of defenders and tactics on Kaminsky. That means extra pressure on guards Paige, Nate Britt and Joel Berry to try to slow down Dekker and Koenig. Forwards Brice Johnson and J.P. Tokoto will be relied on heavily to guard Kaminsky.

Carolina is better offensively than Wisconsin, but the Badgers have the major edge defensively. If I am Carolina I let Kaminsky get his and focus on controlling Dekker, Hayes and Koenig as much as possible. Unfortunately, I don't think the Heels have the defensive chops necessary to pull off the upset. They also are way too turnover prone, which comes with their fast break style. Against lesser teams Carolina can overcome those turnovers but the Badgers are too good.

Prediction: Wisconsin 68, North Carolina 62


Midwest Regional Semi-Final in Cleveland, OH

#5 West Virginia (25-9) vs. #1 Kentucky (36-0)

The Mountaineers took out Bobby Hurley and the Buffalo Bulls, and then dispatched the Maryland Terrapins with their press to reach the Sweet 16. For Kentucky, they continued steamrolling through the competition, blowing out Hampton, then letting Cincinnati hang around for a bit, before demolishing them. The Mountaineers will need a perfect game to pull off the upset tonight. The Mountaineers like to push the ball and against the Wildcats defense that has proven ineffective this season.

West Virginia's leading scorer this season is G Juwan Staten. Staten couldn't buy a bucket against the Terps and was picked up by the rest of the Mountaineer starters. F Devin Williams has really come on strong recently for West Virginia but he will face a whole new set of challenges playing against guys like Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns. The Mountaineers are a horrific three point shooting team, so they will be forced to have to overpower Kentucky inside to try to score.

Kentucky has amazing depth and it has often been said that their backups could be their own Top 25 team. Ten Wildcats players averaged double digits in minutes per game. The Harrison twins, Andrew and Aaron, along with freshman guard Devin Booker are the facilitators on offense. Booker has been struggling as of late though, but when you have nine other guys that can pick up the slack, no one really notices.

Mountaineers guard Daxter Miles Jr. may be predicting a win but I doubt anyone else is. I think West Virginia can keep the game interesting for a bit with their defensive pressure, but Kentucky will do what they always do, eventually impose their will and run away with the game. The final score will make the game appear closer than it actually was.

Prediction: Kentucky 70, West Virginia 60


West Regional Semi-Final in Los Angeles, CA

#6 Xavier (23-13) vs. #2 Arizona (33-3)

The Musketeers crushed Mississippi, and then held off Cinderella Georgia State to punch their ticket to the Sweet 16 as the Big East's lone representative. Arizona remains dominant and along with Wisconsin and Duke, appear to be the best bets to potentially knock off Kentucky.

Arizona's demolition of Ohio State in the Third Round was even more impressive considering freshman sensation Stanley Johnson played miserably. He scored just 4 points on 1 of 12 shooting. I expect Johnson to play much better tonight, especially if dork nerd Matt Stainbrook guards him at times. Stainbrook would have the height advantage but Johnson would easily have the athleticism advantage. The Wildcats other big is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson as Sean Miller's team has just the right mix of size and athleticism. The Wildcats second leading score Brandon Ashley was also quiet against Ohio State, and the struggles of Johnson and Ashley gave G T.J. McConnell a chance to shine.

Dee Davis will be charged with trying to slow down McConnell for Xavier. Forward Trevon Bluiett was non existent in the first two rounds for Xavier but for them to have any chance in this game, he will have to have one of his better games of the season, something I don't see happening. G Miles Davis and F Jalen Reynolds round out the Musketeers starting five, solid players in their own right, but nowhere near the level of players Xavier has.

This matchup appears to be the most lopsided of the eight Sweet 16 games. The level of competition for Xavier from what they faced in the first two rounds, to what they will face tonight will be overwhelming. I expect Johnson and Ashley to bounce back after tough games and for the Wildcats to cruise to victory.

Prediction: Arizona 82, Xavier 66

Kentucky will continue their undefeated run on Saturday when they outlast Notre Dame in a high scoring game. Wisconsin and Arizona meet in a rematch of last year's Elite 8, and once again Wisconsin will squeak by the Wildcats to make their second straight Final Four, and set up a Final Four rematch with the Cats. 

2015 March Madness - East Region (First Weekend)

Best Game: #8 NC State vs. #9 LSU

Mark Gottfried's Wolfpack teams have had some tournament success in his tenure. With the draw they received in the East region I think they are primed for another Sweet 16 run, which they reached as an 11 seed under Gottfried in 2012. Alabama transfer Trevor Lacey has immediately become a team leader in his first season with Pack, leading the team in scoring. NC State doesn't play excellent defense, ranking towards the bottom of the NCAA in steals and middle of the pack, no pun intended, in scoring defense. However, they are peaking at the right time, having won six of their past eight games. The Tigers are also a strong offensive team, and weaker defensively, but they do rank highly in rebounds, blocks and steals. Offensively, they are paced on the boards and scoring by forwards Jordan Mickey and Jarell Martin. Texas Tech transfer guard, Josh Gray is more of a passer than a scorer, and their other guard Tim Quarterman has seen his minutes triple this season from last year and has responded well. Both teams have had their coaches criticized for not maximizing the talent they have, but Gottfried gets a bad rap in my opinion as he has returned the Wolfpack to the success level they had lost under Sidney Lowe. These teams are evenly matched and this is a game that should be competitive throughout and not be decided until the very end.


Player to Watch: Oklahoma guard Buddy Hield

This isn't a region filled with big name stars so I had some trouble when deciding what player was worth watching. That led me to who would be the most exciting and that player is the Big 12's leading scorer, the Sooners Buddy Hield. Hield's shooting accuracy can leave a bit to be desired but he is similar to a Marshall Henderson in that no matter how well he is going, he isn't afraid to shoot and take the pressure off of his teammates. Hield is also a very good free throw shooter, so he is at his best when he is driving to the hoop and forcing contact. If the Sooners make it to the second week of the tournament it will be on the back of Hield.


Best Potential Game: #7 Michigan State vs. #2 Virginia

This game would be a rematch of last year's Sweet Sixteen game that the Spartans won.Virginia enters the Tournament trying to figure out how they can get Justin Anderson worked back into the rotation. Anderson was awful in the ACC Tournament, shooting 0 for 6 in two games. That means more pressure on Malcolm Brogdon to try to produce for UVA. Of course, Virginia has their most success when opposing teams wilt under their suffocating defense. North Carolina was able to shoot lights out on their defense in the ACC Tournament and Michigan State is another team that shoots the ball well and can be hard to stop from scoring. Virginia would certainly have the added motivation of looking for revenge from last season but for a 2 seed, this is quite the challenging matchup they could have so early in the Tournament.


Lowest Seed to Make It Through the Weekend: #8 NC State

I like the Wolfpack to take down the Tigers and then I think they have what it takes to beat the weakest #1 seed in my opinion, Villanova. The committee thinks Villanova is the second best team in the country, but they showed signs of overvaluing the Big East throughout their seeding of those teams. Now, to be honest, I couldn't name a single Villanova player and have barely seen them play since the Big East is relegated to Fox Sports 1, but there is precedence to my doubting the Cats. They were a 2 seed last season after steamrolling through the sorry Big East and then were manhandled by the eventual champion UCONN Huskies in the Third Round. Things change from year to year, but I am in a show me mood when it comes to the Wildcats this year.


Predictions

First Round

#11 Dayton over #11 Boise State


Second Round

#1 Villanova over #16 Lafayette

#8 NC State over #9 LSU

#12 Wyoming over #5 Northern Iowa

#4 Louisville over #13 UC-Irvine

#11 Dayton over #6 Providence

#3 Oklahoma over #14 Albany

#7 Michigan State over #10 Georgia

#2 Virginia over #15 Belmont


Third Round

#8 NC State over #1 Villanova

#4 Louisville over #12 Wyoming

#3 Oklahoma over #11 Dayton

#2 Virginia over #7 Michigan State