2013 March Madness - South Region (First Weekend)

The South is arguably the most star studded and toughest of the four regions in the NCAA Tournament. Many of the schools have Final Four pedigree, including new media darling, #5 seed VCU. My favorite team, the North Carolina Tar Heels were unfairly slotted as an 8 seed and because of that, would draw Kansas in the Third Round if the Heels can get past Villanova. Kansas and Bill Self are 2-0 against Roy Williams in the NCAA Tournament, including knocking out Carolina in the Elite Eight last season. The region also includes Player of the Year candidates, like Michigan guard Trey Burke and Georgetown forward Otto Porter. Come Sunday, I suspect that the South region will be most responsible for people's busted brackets.


Best Game: #2 Georgetown vs. #15 Florida Gulf Coast

Yes, I think this matchup will be the best game in the Second Round in the South. Florida Gulf Coast already beat a 2 seed once this season, back in November when they knocked off Miami. Florida Gulf Coast ranks in the Top 100 in scoring (49th), rebounds (87th), assists (92nd) and field goal percentage (49th). Their best player is senior guard Sherwood Brown, who at 6'4 also led the Eagles in rebounds. The job of trying to slow down Otto Porter will likely go to Chase Fieler, who for whatever reason doesn't rebound well, but does a good job at blocking shots. Porter has been lauded all season long for his amazing play. He does almost everything well, he can play inside, hit his shots from outside, including three point land, and plays tough defense. The Hoyas other main scoring threats are Markel Starks and Greg Whittington. The only chance the Eagles will have to pull the upset is if they can contain Porter. The Hoyas size will pose a problem, but the Canes are also a big team and the Eagles were able to defeat them. I just feel this Hoyas team is overrated, and in recent years have been prone to laying eggs in the tournament. The quickness of the Eagles guards will give the Hoyas defense fits and and produce the biggest shocker of this year's tournament.

Player to Watch: North Carolina guard P.J. Hairston

You can probably argue that this is a homer pick and you might be right. As I mentioned above the South region is filled with star power, but one of the hottest players in the game right now is P.J. Hairston. If you caught the ACC Tournament final, you saw Hairston put on a shooting clinic, especially from three point land. Ever since Hairston earned consistent minutes he has been the Heels most dangerous player. If Carolina is to survive this weekend, and pull off a major upset of Kansas, Hairston will have to continue to play at that high level.

Best Potential Game: #1 Kansas vs. #8 North Carolina

This is one of those games the committee just "happens" to set up. Carolina being an 8 seed with an RPI of 17 makes no sense, but maybe they just really wanted to see Roy vs. Kansas, Part 3. Carolina fans still have a bitter taste in their mouths from last year's Elite Eight loss to the Jayhawks. Had Kendall Marshall played myself and many others believe that Carolina would have won that game. Save for one poor week, the Jayhawks have been one of the best teams in the country. They are led by outstanding freshman guard Ben McLemore, and big man Jeff Withey. It would be fun to watch Withey do battle with James Michael McAdoo, and the contrast of Jayhawks senior guard Elijah Johnsons, versus Carolina freshman Marcus Paige. These two teams both play a run and gun style, so the points would pour in. Add in the whole revenge element, and two storied programs and you have all the makings of a great game.

Lowest Seed to Make It Through Weekend: #10 Oklahoma

Lon Kruger has quietly done a quality job of rebuilding the Sooner program after the mess Dookie Jeff Capel left them in. The Sooners did have some puzzling losses, blowing a big lead to Texas and losing at TCU, but did knock off Kansas. If the Sooners get to the Sweet Sixteen it will be on the back of senior forward Romero Osby. I like the Sooners to beat the Aztecs from the overrated Mountain West, and then benefit from Florida Gulf Coast's upset of Georgetown and pick up a win against the Eagles. So basically a fortunate draw will help Oklahoma this week.


Predictions

Second Round

#1 Kansas over #16 Western Kentucky

#8 North Carolina over #9 Villanova

#5 VCU over #12 Akron

#4 Michigan over #13 South Dakota State

#6 UCLA over #11 Minnesota

#3 Florida over #14 Northwestern State

#10 Oklahoma over #7 San Diego State

#15 Florida Gulf Coast over #2 Georgetown


Third Round 

#8 North Carolina over #1 Kansas

#4 Michigan over #5 VCU

#3 Florida over #6 UCLA

#10 Oklahoma over #15 Florida Gulf Coast

2013 March Madness - Midwest Region (First Weekend)

The Midwest region is home to the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Louisville Cardinals. Headlining the region with them are legendary programs with legendary coaches, #2 seed Duke and Mike Kryzyzewski and #3 Michigan State and Tom Izzo. Otherwise, at least on paper, this region is pretty devoid of star power. On paper it looks like this region will go mostly chalk, but often times in the NCAA Tournament looks can be deceiving.


Best Game: #5 Oklahoma State vs. #12 Oregon

Many were surprised when the Ducks were given a 12th seed after winning the Pac-12 Tournament and finishing 12-6 in the league. The committee admitted that for bracketing purposes, the Ducks had to slide to a 12 instead of an 11, but that is still a pretty low seed. Oregon doesn't have any single dominant scorer, instead they receive most of their scoring from six different players. Forwards E.J. Singler and Carlos Emory lead the team in scoring, but the Ducks best overall player is arguably forward Arsalan Kazemi who nearly averaged a double double in scoring and rebounding. The Ducks are a strong rebounding and defensive team, which could give the Cowboys trouble and their run and gun style. While the Ducks rely more on their big men, the Cowboys are guard heavy, led by Marcus Smart and Markel Brown. Forward Michael Cobbins is the Cowboys best hope of matching Kazemi on the boards, but its likely Oklahoma State will just have to accept that Kazemi might have a big game. Both these teams average over 70 points a game, so it should be a relatively high scoring, entertaining game.


Player to Watch: Duke forward Ryan Kelly

No player seemed to make more of a difference to his team's fortunes than Kelly. Duke was 18-1 with him and just 9-4 without him. His presence completely opened things up for Mason Plumlee and without him Plumlee's stats plummeted at times. People are jumping off the Duke bandwagon quickly after their surprising loss to Maryland in the ACC Tournament, but with Kelly back healthy, Duke might be primed to make a long run in the Tournament.


Best Potential Game: #2 Duke vs. #7 Creighton

This game would be fun to watch to see how Doug McDermott would fare against Duke, especially Plumlee and Kelly. Creighton is one of the best shooting teams in the country, and if they caught fire, along with Seth Curry for Duke, this game would be a constant heat check.

Lowest Seed to Make It Through Weekend: #4 Saint Louis

The Billikens are one of the hottest teams in the country and play absolutely suffocating defense. They have won fifteen of their last sixteen games and continuously hold their opponents under 60 points. Some people might like Oregon to make it out of the first weekend but I think they will fall to Oklahoma State. Memphis is the only other higher seed with a real chance, but they have feasted on nobodies all season, and I believe they will be overmatched by Michigan State in the Third Round.


Predictions

First Round

#16 Liberty over #16 North Carolina A&T

#11 Middle Tennessee State over #11 St. Mary's


Second Round

#1 Louisville over #16 Liberty


#9 Missouri over #8 Colorado State

#5 Oklahoma State over #12 Oregon

#4 Saint Louis over #13 New Mexico State

#6 Memphis over #11 Middle Tennessee State

#3 Michigan State over #14 Valparaiso

#7 Creighton over #10 Cincinnati

#2 Duke over #15 Albany


Third Round

#1 Louisville over #9 Missouri

#4 Saint Louis over #5 Oklahoma State

#3 Michigan State over #6 Memphis

#2 Duke over #7 Creighton

2013 March Madness - West Region (First Weekend)

The West region is where there could be some turbulence the first weekend. That is because mid-major but not really a mid-major darling Gonzaga is the number one seed. The Zags resume isn't overly impressive but their 31-2 overall record was too hard for the committee not to reward. Another mid-major darling in the region is number three seed New Mexico. Everyone seems to be really high on the Lobos, but I still can't shake the fact that they should have lost to mediocre George Mason back in November. The one power that hopes to emerge from this region is #2 seed and Big Ten tournament champions Ohio State, but if things go the way I forsee their season will end on Sunday.


Best Game: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Mississippi

Boring Wisconsin, led by stodgy Bo Ryan going up against the brashest douche you will ever see Marshall Henderson of Ole Miss. The Rebels are a strong scoring and rebounding team, but haven't seen defense the likes of what the Badgers will play. Guard Ben Brust and forward-center Jared Berggren play the inside out game for Wisconsin. For the Rebels, everyone knows Henderson but forward Murphy Holloway is also a very accomplished player. Not only does he score while shooting 56%, he also averages 9.6 rebounds per game. Games where you see two teams with very distinct styles that are completely opposite are always entertaining. Add in the personality of Henderson and you have one of the most must see games this week. Not often you can say that about a game Wisconsin is going to be involved in.

Player to Watch: Mississippi guard Marshall Henderson 

It is hard to say whether Henderson is more known for his 20 point per game average and overrated shooting ability, or for his look at me taunting attitude. Sure, if Henderson was on North Carolina or George Mason I would probably love him, but he isn't and I can't stand him. The guy shoots 38% and acts like he is God's gift to basketball. He jacks up shots constantly and that is the main reason he averages 20 points a game. One area where is excellent is his free throw shooting, so he would be better served trying to get closer to the rim. But even with what I have said, he has done things to earn attention and has me saying you better watch him this week.

Best Potential Game: #2 Ohio State vs. #10 Iowa State

They Cyclones aren't very well known but come Monday I think people will learn that they have moved on nicely from Royce White. They Cyclones rank fourth in scoring, 21st in rebounding, 14th in assists per game, and 70th in field goal percentage. Those are very strong overall numbers for a ten seed. The main reason they have struggled is they play terribly on the defensive end. Their best play is their oversized 6'7 guard. Will Clyburn. A transfer from Utah, Clyburn averages 15 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists per game. The Buckeyes best players Deshaun Thomas and point guard Aaron Craft. If these teams meet in round three, this will be another contrast of styles matchup. The Buckeyes are a typical, grind it out Big Ten team, and it would be interesting to see if they could deal with the speed of the Cyclones.

Lowest Seed to Make It Through Weekend: #10 Iowa State

It seems there is always at least one 2 seed going down in the third round and this year I think the Buckeyes fit that bill. They are a little overvalued right now coming off win the Big Ten Tournament, and I think the Cyclones play a brand of basketball that will serve them well this week. While I have my doubts about New Mexico and Gonzaga, I feel like who they drew will allow them to survive this weekend.


Predictions

First Round

#13 La Salle over #13 Boise State


Second Round

#1 Gonzaga over #16 Southern

#8 Pittsburgh over #9 Wichita State

#5 Wisconsin over #12 Mississippi

#4 Kansas State over #13 La Salle

#6 Arizona over #11 Belmont

#3 New Mexico over #14 Harvard

#10 Iowa State over #7 Notre Dame

#2 Ohio State over #15 Iona


Third Round

#1 Gonzaga over #8 Pittsburgh

#4 Kansas State over #5 Wisconsin

#3 New Mexico over #6 Arizona

#10 Iowa State over #2 Ohio State

2013 ACC Tournament Preview

This is the last ACC Tournament before the conference balloons to 15 teams next year with the additions of Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Notre Dame. This tournament has mostly been dominated by Duke over the last 15 years, but this season things are a bit different. The Miami Hurricanes, led by former George Mason coach Jim Larranaga captured their first ever regular season ACC title. Now they enter the Tournament as the hunted. Joining them as contenders to cut down the nets on Sunday are of course, Duke, as well as North Carolina, and over-hyped preseason favorite, North Carolina State. Last year's winners Florida State have suffered through a mediocre year, and will be gone by Friday.


1. Miami (24-6, 15-3)

The Hurricanes surprised everyone by starting off the conference season 13-0. They stomped Duke at home, beat North Carolina by double digits twice and looked like the clear best team in the conference. But towards the end of the season they began to fade a bit, and enter the ACC Tournament, losers of three of their last five, including an embarrassing home loss to lowly Georgia Tech. Larranaga has the Canes playing the type of ball Mason fans grew to love. Fluid offense, mixed with a stout defense.

Sophomore point guard Shane Larkin too a massive leap this season. He doubled his freshman numbers almost across the board and averaged a very high 36 minutes per game. Larkin doesn't have many flaws in his game. He is an excellent shooter and passer and does a great job feeding his one of his big guys, Kenny Kadji. Kadji had double doubles in his last three games, and with Larkin gives Miami one of the best interior and exterior attacks in college basketball. It has been a lost season for center Reggie Johnson. He was injured for most of it, and has trouble getting back into flow of the rotation. He still is a strong rebounder though, and when him and Kadji are together, that is the Hurricanes at their toughest on defense. Miami really only struggles because their offense is inconsistent. If that hits them this weekend, they will be upset.


2. Duke (27-4, 14-4)

Duke is coming into this weekend brimming with confidence, following a dominating win at North Carolina. That confidence also comes from the fact they are unbeaten with Ryan Kelly in the lineup. Duke's offense is filled with weapons like Kelly and their leading scorers, Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry. If Curry catches fire from three like he is capable of, then as you saw last Saturday, Duke is next to impossible to beat. Like the Hurricanes, they have guards who can shoot, as Quinn Cook complements Curry well on the wing. Where Duke is weak is that they are careless with the ball and turn it over quite a bit. They also don't have much depth, so its basically their starters playing well or bust. The return of Kelly helps their defense tremendously, as without him, Plumlee had no one to deflect pressure off of inside. I used to think Kelly was overrated, but seeing him these last few games, it is quite clear how much he improves Duke. Despite being the second seed, and as much I hate to say it, Duke is the favorites to win this weekend.


3.  North Carolina (22-9, 12-6)

Carolina was feeling pretty good about themselves, and then last Saturday happened. Looking for a silver lining, it might be a good thing. It definitely tempered the fans expectations for this team, and hopefully it made the players realize that they still have to prove themselves. One player that fits that mold and who is key to Carolina's chances this weekend are freshman point guard Marcus Paige. Paige hasn't reminded Carolina fans of Kendall Marshall, but on the bright side he hasn't brought back nightmares of Larry Drew II. What Paige really needs to work on is decision making and shooting. Poor decision making has led to him turning it over, especially the last two games where had 13 turnovers. The Heels have no shortage of offensive firepower with Reggie Bullock, PJ Hairston, and James Michael McAdoo. McAdoo is another inconsistent player, who shows flashes of brilliance but other times leaves you thinking how much better he could be. He is another guy that turns it over way too much, although turnovers almost seem to be a given with Roy Williams uptempo offense. There is a strong chance Carolina could get a third shot at Duke, but I'm not sure that is a good thing or a bad thing. It will be interesting to see which Heels team shows up in this tournament.


5. North Carolina State (22-9, 11-7)

Foolishly, the media picked the Wolfpack to be ACC champions. To the surprise of no one, outside of homer NC State fans, the Wolfpack didn't live up to the hype. They did manage to beat Duke and UNC at home, but lost some puzzling games and finished in the middle of the pack in the ACC. With that kind of opening you might be wondering why I am even previewing the Wolfpack. They do have plenty of talent, and the way the draw is set up, I think they are the sleeper team this weekend. One problem NC State had is that C.J. Leslie and and Richard Howell had to do too much. Leslie and Howell were the Wolfpack's leading scorers and rebounders. They didn't get their rebounding from many other but they have a very balanced offense, where scoring can come from almost anywhere. Lorenzo Brown, is a terrific point guard, who averaged 12 points per game, and also 7 assists. He is also very smart with the ball, averaging only 1 turnover per game. Scott Wood and T.J. Warren also scored in double figures. If these guys can all play cohesively, that is when the Wolfpack flash the potential people saw in them. The success they find or don't find this weekend will come down to the type of defense they play. They are going to have to play their best defense of the season to slow down the premiere offenses they could face this weekend.


First Round

#9 Georgia Tech over #8 Boston College
#5 North Carolina State over #12 Virginia Tech
#7 Maryland over #10 Wake Forest
#6 Florida State over #11 Clemson

Quarter-Finals

#1 Miami over #9 Georgia Tech
#5 North Carolina State over #4 Virginia
#2 Duke over #7 Maryland
#3 North Carolina over #6 Florida State

Semi-Finals

#5 North Carolina State over #1 Miami
#2 Duke over #3 North Carolina

Finals

#2 Duke over #5 North Carolina State


I believe the First Round will be mostly chalk, as well as the Quarter-Finals, with the slight upset being NC State over Virginia. If Virginia does lose right away that will probably kill their NCAA Tournament chances. Carolina having to beat Florida State three times makes me a little nervous, but still expect them to win. In the Semi-Finals, I think Miami's recent struggles will continue and show against NC State, who came oh so close to beating Miami in the regular season. I wish the third time would be the charm for Carolina against Duke but I think the Blue Devils are too talented. I also worry that this game won't happen, as it seems like almost every time these two seem headed for a collision in this tournament, some sort of upset happens. In the championship game, I expect an offensive showcase between NC State and Duke but Duke pulling out away late to win the tournament and ensure themselves a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. Yuck.

The Alley-Oop

Top 10

Saturday, March 9

#3 Duke (26-4, 13-4) at North Carolina (22-8, 12-5)

The Tar Heels are one of the hottest teams in the country. Following their dominating victory at Maryland on Wednesday, the Heels have now won six in a row and have gone from bubble team, to a team that could make some noise in the NCAA Tournament. The hot run is mostly being attributed to a shift in philosophy by coach Roy Williams. Williams shifted his lineup and is now starting four guards. PJ Hairston and Reggie Bullock have been on fire, and are a major reason for Carolina's recent success. Doubters and haters like to point to the fact that the six straight wins haven't come against a ranked team. To that I say, Carolina doesn't control the schedule, they can only play the teams in front of them, and they have been playing them very well.

Duke is feeling rejuvenated because of the return of senior Ryan Kelly from injury last week. The mouth breather had an impressive return against Miami, pouring in a career high 36 points. Blue Devils fans like to point out that Duke hasn't lost with Kelly in the lineup all season. They were able to defeat Carolina in the first matchup without him, and also overcame being mostly outplayed the entire game. In the first game, Mason Plumlee and the sometimes overlooked Quinn Cook gave the Heels fits. The Heels received little from James Michael McAdoo, and he will be limited in this game, as he battles a bulging disc in his back.

This game already has a ton of juice behind it being the best rivalry in college basketball. However, Carolina will have a little extra motivation. A win against Duke, especially with Kelly playing can quiet the critics and prove that Carolina has vastly improved in the last month and is a burgeoning contender. I expect the Dean Dome to being rocking all night long, and for this game to enter as the latest classic in a rivalry with many of them. Go Heels, beat Duke.

Prediction: North Carolina 77, Duke 75

#4 Kansas (26-4, 14-3) at Baylor (17-13, 8-9)

Since their three game losing streak, the Jayhawks have been on fire and are back in the discussion for a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. Baylor is having a disappointing season and has seen their NCAA Tournament bubble burst.

Prediction: Kansas 67, Baylor 57

#17 Syracuse (23-7, 11-6) at #5 Georgetown (23-5, 13-4)

This is the last time these two rivals will meet as conference foes, as Syracuse heads to the ACC. The Hoyas 11 game winning streak came to an end at the hands of Villanova, while the Cuse halted a three game losing streak against DePaul. The Hoyas shocked everyone by winning at the Carrier Dome a few weeks ago, as Otto Porter played out of his mind. I think the Orange will return the favor in this game.

Prediction: Syracuse 59, Georgetown 58


Clemson (13-16, 5-12) at #6 Miami (23-6, 14-3)

The Canes are stumbling to the finish line, losing two straight, including a mystifying home loss to awful Georgia Tech on Wednesday. They can still win the ACC outright with a win at home against Clemson. If they drop this game, it might be time to panic in Coral Gables.

Prediction: Miami 68, Clemson 55

#24 Notre Dame (23-7, 11-6) at #8 Louisville (25-5, 13-4)

Whenever these two get together close games or overtime seem inevitable. Last time they met up, it took five overtimes to settle it before the Irish escaped with a victory. The Cardinals have been on fire since that game and will be looking for revenge. Former Patriot Luke Hancock has seemed to finally start settling in and showing some of the game that made Mason fans fall in love with him.

Prediction: Louisville 66, Notre Dame 61

#9 Kansas State (25-5, 14-3) at #13 Oklahoma State (22-7, 12-5)

The Wildcats haven't received much attention this year, but here they are in the top 10. Their coach Bruce Weber was mostly lambasted when he was named Kansas State's coach but so far it has looked like the right move. Oklahoma State is coming off a butt whooping in Iowa State, but should feel more comfortable in the confines of their home gym.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 73, Kansas State 70


Sunday, March 10

#2 Indiana (25-5, 13-4) at #7 Michigan (25-5, 12-5)

The Hoosiers are looking shaky as of late and have me questioning them as my pick to cut down the nets in April. The Wolverines have been a little shaky as well so I am not sure they are the team to take advantage of Indiana right now. Despite their loss to Ohio State on senior night, the Hoosiers can still win their first outright Big Ten regular season title in ten years with a win. This game is filled with star power. For the Hoosiers you have Cody Zeller, Victor Oladipo and Christian Watford. Michigan's stars are Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Glenn Robinson III. Michigan will want revenge for an earlier season loss, but I think this Hoosiers team is too good to be denied that Big Ten t

Prediction: Indiana 74, Michigan 69

Northwestern (13-17, 4-13) at #10 Michigan State (23-7, 12-5)

Sparty will just try to get out of this one healthy as they head into the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments. They can earn a tie of the regular season Big Ten title if their hated rivals Michigan can knock off Indiana.

Prediction: Michigan State 64, Northwestern 50


Last Week: 10-0
Overall: 34-9

2013 CAA Tournament Preview

Quite frankly, the CAA Tournament is a joke this year. It is fitting though, as the conference itself was a joke this season. The CAA suffered through one of the worst seasons in its history, and there is a chance the league representative could be as low as a 16 seed this season. Only seven of the eleven teams in the conference are eligible for this year's tournament. Towson, and UNC-Wilmington are ineligible due to academic failures, while Georgia State and Old Dominion are ineligible due to leaving the conference. I feel like only Northeastern or Delaware has a realistic chance of winning the whole thing, but am including George Mason in my preview because I am a homer. I feel confident saying Hofstra and William & Mary have zero percent chance, while I predict third seed James Madison will be upset by William & Mary in the first round. Now that I have you hyped, read on to see what I think will happen over the three day CAA Tournament.


1. Northeastern (19-11, 14-4)

The Huskies basically controlled the CAA standings the entire league year. They won their first eight conference games, but came back down to Earth a bit after that, winning just six of their last ten. They are a team that is not strong on the glass so they rely on their shooters to hit shots, which they did at a 44% rate this season. Their senior guards, Joel Smith and Jonathan Lee run the show, leading the team in scoring and assists. Smith is a fantastic shooter, hitting 47% of his shots, 87% of his free throws, 43% from the three point line. If he catches fire during the Tournament, the Huskies will be a very tough out. Lee isn't quite the shooter Smith is, but he is fantastic at finding the open man. While senior guards lead the scoring, sophomore forwards do the heavy lifting for the Huskies. Reggie Spencer and Quincy Ford led the Huskies in rebounding, with Spencer averaging 10 points per contest and Ford 12.9. It is important for the Huskies that Ford contribute to the scoring, as in their final game against Old Dominion, Ford scored just three points and the Huskies suffered a shocking loss. Northeastern is the lone team in the Tournament with a bye, so they need to just two wins to earn the automatic bid. Streaky shooting teams can be dangerous, but if that shot isn't falling, they fall into trouble. The Huskies fortunes will really come down to how well they shoot, because they don't do the other facets of the game well enough to make up for poor shooting.


2. Delaware (18-13, 13-5)

The Blue Hens are basically the polar opposite of the Huskies. They shoot decently but what they do really well is dominate with their size and rebound the basketball. Like Northeastern, they have very strong guard play. Devon Saddler is perhaps the best player in the conference. He averaged over 20 points per game, grabbed 4.5 rebounds and dished out 2.8 assists. He can shoot the rock pretty well, although he does struggle from the three point line. He almost never sits for the Blue Hens, averaging 38 minutes per game. Jarvis Threatt is the other outstanding guard on the Delaware roster. Threatt scores, rebounds and passes as well as anyone in the CAA. He has scored in double digits his last 8 games, recording three double doubles in that streak. Forward Jamelle Hagins is an absolute beast on the boards. In one game this season he grabbed 23 rebounds. His scoring is a little inconsistent but with his defensive ability and size, he doesn't have to carry the scoring load. Saddler, Threatt, and Hagins are a dangerous three man tandem, but outside of that, the Blue Hens rely on role players. Depth is not Delaware's strong suit, so they can't have any of those guys suffering through bad games or it is likely going to be too much for them to overcome. In my opinion, the Blue Hens are the most talented team in the conference and should be the favorites to win the CAA Tournament.


4. George Mason (17-13, 10-8)

Honestly, Mason has very little chance of winning three straight and winning the automatic bid out of the CAA. They haven't wont three straight since the middle of January. In some ways, I don't want them to go on a flukey run and win it all because that would absolve coach Paul Hewitt from a disappointing season. Mason has not been able to string anything resembling consistency all season long. Sherrod Wright scored and no one else did. Then Jonathan Arledge would start scoring but Wright couldn't score anymore. Then Erik Copes became dominant, but Arledge and Wright would disappear. Some of that comes with the territory of not having any contributing seniors, but Hewitt's poor reputation hasn't allowed him to receive the benefit of the doubt. For Mason to win a game or even multiple games this weekend, guys like Wright, Arledge, Copes, guards Bryon Allen and Corey Edwards all have to be playing well at the same time. It will also take Mason learning how to guard the perimeter and not allow teams to score 80+ on them. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the best teams in the CAA have great guard play, and will likely continue to run wild when playing Mason. The Mason team we saw at the start of the year seems much better than the Mason team we saw the last two months. That is what concerns me the most, and doesn't have me optimistic about next year, even if most of the team returns.


First Round

#4 George Mason over #5 Drexel
#2 Delaware over #7 Hofstra
#6 William & Mary over #3 James Madison

Semi-Finals

#1 Northeastern over #4 George Mason
#2 Delaware over #6 William & Mary

Finals

#2 Delaware over #1 Northeastern


Mason versus Drexel is really a pick em but as an alum I have to go with Mason. Delaware will probably beat Hofstra by 20, while I think the Tribe are due to beat James Madison. In the Semi-Finals, I expect Delaware to breeze past William & Mary, and Mason give Northeastern a battle but ultimately find some way to lose. In the championship game, I expect a back and forth affair between Delaware and Northeastern, with Delaware ultimately winning. In the two games against each other this year, both came down to the wire, so at least we should have an entertaining championship game. The Blue Hens have won seven of eight and are the hottest team in the conference, and I think that will carry over to the weekend.

The Alley-Oop

Saturday, March 2

George Mason (17-12, 10-7) at Delaware (17-13, 12-5)

An up and down, and maddeningly inconsistent regular season comes to an end for Mason on Saturday. At times this team has shown flashes of being very good, but mostly, they have looked average at best. Mason will either be the third or fourth seed in the seven team CAA Tournament next weekend. If they beat Delaware they assure themselves of the three seed, but if they lose, they have to hope that James Madison loses at William and Mary, or Mason will drop the four seed. None of it really makes much of a difference to me, but it would be nice to go to Richmond with a win, rather than having lost two straight.

Mason was beaten from start to finish by Delaware at the Patriot Center last month, but currently is riding a 4-game road winning streak. Delaware has struggled a bit at home in conference, so a Mason upset is not out of the question. The Blue Hens may also not be as motivated since they are locked into a 2 seed in the CAA Tournament. In the first meeting three players basically teamed up to beat Mason, the Blue Hens guards Devon Saddler and Jarvis Threatt each scored more than 20 points. Some good news for Mason is the Hens will likely be without or at least see limited action from Josh Brinkley, who shot 6 for 7 in the first game against Mason.

For Mason, hopefully Sherrod Wright can have a good game and build some confidence going into Richmond. Mason's biggest problem all season is they can't seem to get multiple guys playing well at the same time. It was Wright for most of the year, then Jonathan Arledge, and lately Erik Copes. If all three could get going at the same time, the Patriots would be very dangerous.

Some signs make me want to pick Mason to win this game, but when I have picked them the last few weekends I have mostly felt foolish. So maybe I will have a reverse jinx effect and pick the Hens.

Prediction: Delaware 74, George Mason 68


Sunday, March 3

Florida State (15-13, 7-8) at North Carolina (20-8, 10-5)

The Tar Heels have shown some real strides the last few weeks and have me feeling much better about the team and season. I know they won't be cutting down any nets in March, but I don't think its out of the realm of possibilities for them to make the Sweet Sixteen. Freshman point guard Marcus Paige has shown some real improvement with his decision making and shot. Reggie Bullock has become one of my favorite players to watch, as I love the drive and intensity he brings to each game. I think next season could be a real good year, as Dexter Strickland is the only senior of consequence they lose. I really hope James Michael McAdoo realizes he could use another year to refine his game, but am not that hopeful he will return.

As for this game, the Seminoles have been mostly bad this season, and if Carolina plays even somewhat decent they should control this game and win. Michael Snaer and Okaro White are the players to watch on Florida State.

Prediction: North Carolina 80, Florida State 67


Top 10

Saturday, March 2

Iowa (18-10, 7-8) at #1 Indiana (24-4, 12-3)

For the third time this season the Hoosiers fell to an unranked team while being ranked first in the country. The Hawkeyes sit squarely on the bubble and a win at Indiana would pretty much guarantee them an NCAA Tournament berth. The Hawkeyes gave Indiana a fight in their first meeting, and I expect another sluggish battle in this game. Too much Victor Oladipo and Indiana offense will be the difference.

Prediction: Indiana 75, Iowa 65

Portland (11-19, 4-11) at #2 Gonzaga (28-2, 15-0)

Barring a major miracle Gonzaga should be ranked as the number one team in the country come Monday morning. It just doesn't seem quite right, especially since the Zags play in such an awful conference. I need to start becoming more familiar with them though, especially F Kelly Olynyk.

Prediction: Gonzaga 79, Portland 52

#5 Miami (23-4, 14-1) at #3 Duke (24-4, 11-4)

This is the game of the weekend in college basketball. The Hurricanes finally lost an ACC game, getting throttled at Wake Forest, but rebounded nicely at home against Virginia Tech. Duke will be desperate to play well and win this game after Miami handed them one of the more embarrassing losses in Coach K's career at Duke. Miami has been ugly offensively most of the season but couldn't miss against Duke, while the Blue Devils couldn't hit the broad side of a barn that night. Seth Curry shot 0-10, which you figure can't come anywhere close to happening again. The lack of Ryan Kelly was really apparent with how Kenny Kadji had his way inside in that first meeting. I expect this game to be much more competitive, with Duke having to play very well to squeak out with a victory.

Prediction: Duke 64, Miami 60

West Virginia (13-15, 6-9) at #6 Kansas (24-4, 12-3)

A terrible season in major college sports for West Virginia. The football team imploded after a strong start, and the basketball team will probably not even make the CBI or CIT. The Jayhawks are still in the race for a number one seed, and strengthened their case with a come from behind win at Iowa State earlier this week.

Prediction: Kansas 77, West Virginia 62

Rutgers (13-13, 4-11) at #7 Georgetown (22-4, 12-3)

Otto Porter is basically all you need to know about the Hoyas and this game. Otto has been willing the Hoyas to victories and the Hoyas haven't lost since January 19th to South Florida (wtf?). Rutgers record isn't good but they do play tough and are rarely blown out.

Prediction: Georgetown 65, Rutgers 56

Alabama (19-9, 11-4) at #8 Florida (22-5, 12-3)

The Gators are suffering from the road blues in the SEC, dropping their last two road games. They still remain dominant as ever at home, and have a big game here against second place Alabama. The Tide have won five of six, but that has come against the middle of the pack and dregs of the SEC. If this game were in Bama, I would give them a chance, but no SEC team has come close to touching the Gators in Gainesville.

Prediction: Florida 74, Alabama 59

#10 Louisville (23-5, 11-4) at #12 Syracuse (22-6, 10-5)

These two teams will eventually move this rivalry to the ACC, but this will be their last meeting as Big East teams. Cuse has been struggling lately, while Louisville has looked great since that 5 overtime classic against Notre Dame. The Cardinal will be looking for revenge, as the Orange defeated them in Louisivlle in January, when the Cardinal were ranked number one in the country. Forward Chane Behanan had the dunk of the season Wednesday night against DePaul. If you haven't seen that, YouTube it. The Hoyas proved that the Orange can be beaten at the Carrier Dome, and I think with Syracuse scuffling they are due for another home loss.

Prediction: Louisville 60, Syracuse 58


Sunday, March 3

#9 Michigan State (22-6, 11-4) at #4 Michigan (23-5, 10-5)

The Wolverines were shocked by Penn State Wednesday night, the Nittany Lions first win in the Big Ten all season. Perhaps, they were caught looking ahead to hosting the Spartans on Sunday. Michigan is desperate for revenge after being embarrassed in East Lansing, 75-52. The Spartans also come into this game licking their wounds, currently on a 2 game losing streak. Trey Burke was the only Wolverine that showed up in the first meeting. For Michigan to win this time, he will need some help from Glenn Robinson III and Tim Hardaway Jr. The Wolverines will also need to up the defensive intensity since Sparty shot almost 50% in the last game between these teams. This game should be  intense with the rivalry aspect and both teams desperate to get back on the right track.

Prediction: Michigan 71, Michigan State 65


Last Week: 8-3
Overall: 24-9