2013 March Madness (Midwest and South Regions) - Sweet 16 and Elite 8

Well, that was embarrassing. I hyped up the Sweet Sixteen games as being great, and then three out of the four games last night were unwatchable blowouts. Even worse than that, I went 0-4 in my picks. Hopefully better things await tonight.

This set of games features the best and then the team that no one but me and the Miami Hurricanes knew about a week ago. The Cardinals looked like the best team in the country in the first week of the tournament. They face an Oregon team that was under seeded and champions of the Pac-12. Michigan and Kansas will be the best game of the Sweet Sixteen. Michigan State and Duke pits two coaching legends in Tom Izzo and Coach K. Then you have the battle of Florida between the Gators and the little engine that could of Florida Gulf Coast.


Midwest Regional Semi-Final

#12 Oregon (28-8) vs. #1 Louisville (31-5)

The Ducks came into the tournament with a chip on their shoulder after being seeded 12th and then destroyed fourth seeded Oklahoma State and fifth seeded Saint Louis. Their best player has been freshman Damyean Dotston, who averaged 20 points in the victories. Arsalan Kazemi was an absolute beast on the glass, bringing 17 and 16 rebounds in the two wins. He had a double double against Oklahoma State, and was just two points shy of another one against the Billikens. Forwards Carlos Emory and EJ Singler also contributed, although Singler was a mess with turnovers against Saint Louis and will have to clean that up against Louisville.

The Cardinals were dominant in their two victories, with Russ Smith playing excellent basketball. Smith scored 50 points and committed just five turnovers in those two games. Gorgui Deng was somewhat quiet and will need to play better with Kazemi being down low with him. It feels like Peyton Siva has been there forever and the key for him is to limit his turnovers which sometimes can be a problem. Chane Behanan will also need to play much better than he did in the Cardinals two wins, especially on the glass, where he was way too quiet. Luke Hancock provided some nice play off the bench and seems to be much more comfortable than he was at the start of the season.

I expect Oregon to give Louisville some problems in the first half, but I think the Cardinals have really hit their stride and are going to be hard to match up with. I expect Deng and Behanan to step up their games, while I don't think Dotson will continue his hot streak for the Ducks. Russ Smith will be the best player on the court and his presence is the difference.

Prediction: Louisville 76, Oregon 64


South Regional Semi-Final

#4 Michigan (28-7) vs. #1 Kansas (31-5)

I am so pumped for this game. The Wolverines are a fun team to watch as they score a lot and have fantastic guards in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Michigan is an excellent shooting team and respond very well to defensive pressure, as evidenced by how they dismantled VCU's vaunted Havoc defense. Freshman guard Nik Stauskas is another threat shooting the ball. They aren't a very good rebounding team but Mitch McGary played out of his mind against VCU, grabbing 14 boards. Gleen Robinson III is the teams second leading rebounder and a good scorer at 11 points per game. The Wolverines also aren't very deep so it does put pressure on their starters to stay out of foul trouble and play well.

The Jayhawks looked less than impressive for 60 minutes last week, and then caught fire and buried the Tar Heels in the second half in their Third Round game. They struggled way more than they should have with Western Kentucky but showed when they hit their stride why they are one of the best teams in the country. They rank in the Top 25 in the country in points, assists, rebounds and field goal percentage. Center Jeff Withey is a blocking machine and he could have a huge game on both offense and defense against Michigan. Ben McLemore is considered Kansas' best player but he was a terrible 0-9 against North Carolina. Thankfully for the Jayhawks, Travis Releford stepped up and played fantastic.

McLemore has not looked good in the tournament and if that happens against Michigan the Jayhawks will be bounced. Michigan may be a four seed but they were in contention for a one or two seed for most of the season. I am very high on them as a team and think that their guard play will carry them past Kansas.

Prediction: Michigan 81, Kansas 80


Midwest Regional Semi-Final

#3 Michigan State (27-8) vs. #2 Duke (29-5)

It is interesting and honestly refreshing the lack of buzz or attention Duke has received thus far in the tournament. Not many people seem to be giving Duke a chance to win it all. There was a lot of buzz about how with Ryan Kelly they were unbeatable, then the loss to Maryland happened with him on the court and it all disappeared. Their opponent in the Sweet 16, Michigan State, is built much differently than them.

Duke is a team predicated on its offense. They shoot and pass the ball well, and play pretty good defense. However, they aren't much of a rebounding team and they won't win games on the back of their defense. Michigan State relies almost entirely on its defense. They were 152nd in the country in points per game, but are a strong rebounding team led by Adreian Payne's 7 rebounds per game. Payne is almost a monster defensively, averaging almost 2 blocks per game. A fun battle in this game will be between Duke's Quinn Cook and Seth Curry against Michigan State's Keith Appling and Gary Harris. Then inside you get to watch Kelly and Mason Plumlee fight with Payne and Derrick Nix.

On paper, Duke appears to be the better team. They rank better in most statistical categories and their record is better.  However, I think the way the Spartans have been tested in the Big Ten will really serve them well in this game. I think their physical nature will give the Dookies fits and throw them off their game. After his huge return against Miami, Kelly has been mostly ineffective and when Kelly isn't at his best, Duke is very susceptible to being beaten.

Prediction: Michigan State 68, Duke 63


South Regional Semi-Final

#15 Florida Gulf Coast (26-10) vs. #3 Florida (28-7)

The teams battling will be Florida and Florida Gulf Coast, but as far as fans it will be Florida fans versus all of America. Florida Gulf Coast has captured the hearts and minds of America by becoming the first 15th seed to ever reach the Sweet 16. I have to remind everyone once again that I did predict they would beat Georgetown, however, I didn't have the guts to put them in the Sweet 16. They dunked all over the Hoyas and San Diego State and have earned the nickname of Dunk City. As I mentioned last week, the Eagles rank very well in statistical categories for a team in a low-major conference. Those stats were a hint that they could compete with the very best on any given night. Not surprisingly, their best players in the tournament have been their guards, Sherwood Brown and Bernard Thompson. When a team catches fire it becomes infectious, and that can be the only thing that explains guard Christophe Varidel's strong play against the Aztecs. Varidel barely got on the court against Georgetown but earned himself minutes against San Diego State with some strong play. Another guard to watch on the Eagles is Brett Comer who can lob and dunk with the best of them. Chase Fieler is the Eagles best big man, but overall the Eagles are a team that is guard heavy.

The Gators rank low in rebounding but part of that is because they shoot the ball so well. They shot 48% for the season and shot a ridiculous 56% in their Third Round win over Minnesota. The Gators have weapons all over the floor and tremendous depth. Eight of their players average 15 minutes or more per game. F-C Erik Murphy is their leading scorer, but on any given night the leader can be Mike Rosario, Patric Young, Kenny Boynton, or Scotty Wilbekin. Out of that group of players only Boynton shoots less than 44% from the field. When Florida is on they look like the best team in the country. Their way of doing things this season has been to either blow teams out or lose a close game, an in between hasn't existed.

Now with that being said, I think the narrative will change for the Gators in this game. I don't think they will blow out the Eagles. We know the Eagles won't be intimidated by Florida as they will be playing with an obscene amount of confidence. Florida sometimes goes through droughts, not usually caused by poor shooting but by their tendency to turn the ball over. Turnovers is what will keep the Eagles within shouting distance, but then late I think Florida will hold on and finally win a close game.

Prediction: Florida 74, Florida Gulf Coast 71

On Sunday, I think that Michigan and Florida will shoot the ball well, but that the Gators propensity for losing close games will rear its ugly head, moving the Wolverines on to their first Final Four in nearly 20 years. Michigan State and Louisville will renew acquaintances in the NCAA Tournament for the third time in five years, and for the second straight season the Cardinals will come out on top, sending them to their third Final Four under Rick Pitino.