1. Northeastern (19-11, 14-4)
The Huskies basically controlled the CAA standings the entire league year. They won their first eight conference games, but came back down to Earth a bit after that, winning just six of their last ten. They are a team that is not strong on the glass so they rely on their shooters to hit shots, which they did at a 44% rate this season. Their senior guards, Joel Smith and Jonathan Lee run the show, leading the team in scoring and assists. Smith is a fantastic shooter, hitting 47% of his shots, 87% of his free throws, 43% from the three point line. If he catches fire during the Tournament, the Huskies will be a very tough out. Lee isn't quite the shooter Smith is, but he is fantastic at finding the open man. While senior guards lead the scoring, sophomore forwards do the heavy lifting for the Huskies. Reggie Spencer and Quincy Ford led the Huskies in rebounding, with Spencer averaging 10 points per contest and Ford 12.9. It is important for the Huskies that Ford contribute to the scoring, as in their final game against Old Dominion, Ford scored just three points and the Huskies suffered a shocking loss. Northeastern is the lone team in the Tournament with a bye, so they need to just two wins to earn the automatic bid. Streaky shooting teams can be dangerous, but if that shot isn't falling, they fall into trouble. The Huskies fortunes will really come down to how well they shoot, because they don't do the other facets of the game well enough to make up for poor shooting.
2. Delaware (18-13, 13-5)
The Blue Hens are basically the polar opposite of the Huskies. They shoot decently but what they do really well is dominate with their size and rebound the basketball. Like Northeastern, they have very strong guard play. Devon Saddler is perhaps the best player in the conference. He averaged over 20 points per game, grabbed 4.5 rebounds and dished out 2.8 assists. He can shoot the rock pretty well, although he does struggle from the three point line. He almost never sits for the Blue Hens, averaging 38 minutes per game. Jarvis Threatt is the other outstanding guard on the Delaware roster. Threatt scores, rebounds and passes as well as anyone in the CAA. He has scored in double digits his last 8 games, recording three double doubles in that streak. Forward Jamelle Hagins is an absolute beast on the boards. In one game this season he grabbed 23 rebounds. His scoring is a little inconsistent but with his defensive ability and size, he doesn't have to carry the scoring load. Saddler, Threatt, and Hagins are a dangerous three man tandem, but outside of that, the Blue Hens rely on role players. Depth is not Delaware's strong suit, so they can't have any of those guys suffering through bad games or it is likely going to be too much for them to overcome. In my opinion, the Blue Hens are the most talented team in the conference and should be the favorites to win the CAA Tournament.
4. George Mason (17-13, 10-8)
Honestly, Mason has very little chance of winning three straight and winning the automatic bid out of the CAA. They haven't wont three straight since the middle of January. In some ways, I don't want them to go on a flukey run and win it all because that would absolve coach Paul Hewitt from a disappointing season. Mason has not been able to string anything resembling consistency all season long. Sherrod Wright scored and no one else did. Then Jonathan Arledge would start scoring but Wright couldn't score anymore. Then Erik Copes became dominant, but Arledge and Wright would disappear. Some of that comes with the territory of not having any contributing seniors, but Hewitt's poor reputation hasn't allowed him to receive the benefit of the doubt. For Mason to win a game or even multiple games this weekend, guys like Wright, Arledge, Copes, guards Bryon Allen and Corey Edwards all have to be playing well at the same time. It will also take Mason learning how to guard the perimeter and not allow teams to score 80+ on them. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the best teams in the CAA have great guard play, and will likely continue to run wild when playing Mason. The Mason team we saw at the start of the year seems much better than the Mason team we saw the last two months. That is what concerns me the most, and doesn't have me optimistic about next year, even if most of the team returns.
First Round
#4 George Mason over #5 Drexel
#2 Delaware over #7 Hofstra
#6 William & Mary over #3 James Madison
Semi-Finals
#1 Northeastern over #4 George Mason
#2 Delaware over #6 William & Mary
Finals
#2 Delaware over #1 Northeastern
Mason versus Drexel is really a pick em but as an alum I have to go with Mason. Delaware will probably beat Hofstra by 20, while I think the Tribe are due to beat James Madison. In the Semi-Finals, I expect Delaware to breeze past William & Mary, and Mason give Northeastern a battle but ultimately find some way to lose. In the championship game, I expect a back and forth affair between Delaware and Northeastern, with Delaware ultimately winning. In the two games against each other this year, both came down to the wire, so at least we should have an entertaining championship game. The Blue Hens have won seven of eight and are the hottest team in the conference, and I think that will carry over to the weekend.
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