2011 CAA Tournament Preview

The CAA is the best mid-major conference in basketball. For the first time in league history six of the twelve teams finished with over 20 wins. If a team other than Old Dominion or George Mason wins the CAA Tournament, then the CAA will have a conference record three teams in the NCAA Tournament. George Mason enters as the CAA Champion and favorite but five other teams have shots at cutting down the nets on Monday night.

1. George Mason (25-5, 16-2)

Mason enters the CAA Tournament on a 15 game winning streak, and are ranked in the Coaches poll at #25. Even if they were to be knocked out in the Quarter-Finals of the CAA Tournament they appear to be a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Hopefully, the players aren't thinking that way and will be focused on trying to win the conference tournament for the first time since 2008. Mason has four starters that average double figures in scoring, led by senior G Cam Long. F Ryan Pearson is effective at getting to the basket, drawing fouls and rebounding. Complementing starters Mike Morrison, Andre Cornelius, and Luke Hancock, are bench players, Isaiah Tate and Vertrail Vaughns. Vaughns has been on a tear as of late, coming off the bench and knocking down threes with ease, shooting over 50% from three this season. Mason had dominated during most of their winning streak, but have scuffled a bit as of late. Potential Semi-Final and Championship games with VCU and Old Dominion would be quite the test.

2. Old Dominion (24-6, 14-4)

The Monarchs are the defending CAA Champions and also enter the tournament on a roll. Since getting blown out at Mason, the Monarchs have won six games in a row, all by double digits. They are led by senior F Frank Hassell's 14.2 ppg, and 9.8 rpg. The Monarchs are one of the better rebounding teams in the country, averaging 40.6 a game, good for 6th in the nation. Part of that is due to poor shooting though, as the Monarchs only averaged 65.6 points per game. Other players to watch for ODU include Kent Bazemore, and Ben Finney. The Monarchs also are pretty deep, as eight players averaged double figures in minutes per game. F Chris Cooper has been especially effective coming off the bench.

3. Hofstra (20-10, 14-4)

The Pride aren't getting any at-large consideration but did finish two games ahead of the other at-large contender, VCU. Hofstra starts and ends with likely CAA Player of the Year, senior G Charles Jenkins. Jenkins scored in double figures in every game this season, averaging 23.2 ppg. He is also efficient, shooting over 50% from the field. If Jenkins struggles, then the Pride lose. While Jenkins is what makes the Pride go, they do have some other weapons. G Mike Moore can be streaky and does love to shoot. Sometimes that is a good thing, but sometimes it hinders the offense. Sophomore F David Imes does most of the dirty work on the glass.

4. Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, 12-6)

Some people still want to insist that VCU has a chance at an at-large bid but those people are dreaming. However, the Rams do have their yearly advantage of playing the CAA Tournament in their backyard. They will need that homecourt edge as they come into the CAA Tournament reeling, losers of four of their last five games, including three straight home losses. F Jamie Skeen is their leading scorer and rebounder, averaging 14.8 ppg, and 7.6 rpg. Surprisingly, senior G Joey Rodriguez regressed in his senior year, seeing his points and assists totals both down from his junior season. Playing in Richmond helps, but I don't think the Rams have the talent for it to really make a difference.

5. Drexel (20-9, 11-7)

Drexel is likely a long-shot, but any team that went to Louisville and won, can't be ignored. Drexel is primarily a defensive team, that wins through defense and rebounding. That is basically epitomized by the fact their leading scorer, sophomore G Chris Fouch, shot just 37% from the field. Junior F Samme Givens led the team in rebounding at 10 per game and also averaged almost a block a game. Seven guys see minutes for the Dragons, and coach Bruiser Flint rarely diverts from that strategy. F Daryl McCoy is a big body for the Dragons and their other weapon on the glass.

6. James Madison (21-10, 10-8)

The Dukes have been up and down all season, with some real puzzling losses and some equally surprising wins. Their led by F Denzel Bowles, who scored 18.2 ppg, brought down 9 rpg, and blocked 1.6 shot per game. Another big guy is F Rayshawn Goins, and G Devon Moore brings both scoring and distributing in his repertoire. F Julius Wells regressed mightily from last season, but the Monarchs would be even more dangerous in the tournament if he can find his form.

Below are my predictions for Friday's First Round action and then how I see Saturday-Monday shaking out.

First Round

#8 UNC-Wilmington over #9 Georgia State
#5 Drexel over #12 Towson
#10 Northeastern over #7 Delaware
#6 James Madison over #11 William & Mary

Quarter-Finals

#1 George Mason over #8 UNC-Wilmington
#5 Drexel over #4 Virgina Commonwealth
#2 Old Dominion over #10 Northeastern
#3 Hofstra over #6 James Madison

Semi-Finals

#1 George Mason over #5 Drexel
#2 Old Dominion over #3 Hofstra

Finals

#2 Old Dominion over #1 George Mason

This will sound wrong but I almost want George Mason to lose a game before entering the NCAA Tournament. I would really rather the pressure of the winning streak be off of them and have them basically enter with a fresh slate. I definitely think they are better than and can beat ODU in the Championship game, so this is more a want pick, than a objective pick. I think Mason and ODU have proved themselves the class of the CAA all season, and they will have a great championship game on Monday night. Either way, both of them are headed to the NCAA Tournament.

P.S. Happy Birthday David Karpf!!!!