Another year, another great start to March Madness. Adding three more teams did nothing to hurt the Tournament, and even one of the last four teams into the Tournament is still standing, the CAA's VCU Rams. BYU's Jimmer Fredette and UCONN's Kemba Walker will take center stage Thursday night as the Sweet 16 tips off. Both will have something to prove. Fredette will try to show he can carry the Cougars to the Final Four without Brandon Davies, and Walker will be trying to push a team from the overrated Big East to the Final Four.West Regional Semi-Final
#3 Connecticut (28-9) vs. #2 San Diego State (34-2)
Connecticut has been spectacular in tournament play this year and continued that in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs are in their first ever Sweet 16 and needed double overtime to get past Temple.
The Huskies pretty much start and end with Kemba Walker. Walker really shined in the Third Round against Cincinnati, scoring 33 points and dishing out 5 assists. Recently, Jeremy Lamb has stepped up his game, and is averaging 15 points through the first two games of the Tournament.
The Aztects got past Temple in large part due to a balanced offensive effort. Usually, Kawhi Leonard does most of the heavy lifting, but the Aztecs also received major contributions from Billy White, Malcolm Thomas, Chase Tapley, and D.J. Gay.
The Huskies have the edge in rebounding and scoring against the Aztecs, and while the Big East has proven to be overrated, it is far better than the competition San Diego State faced in the Mountain West. I don't think the Aztecs have an answer for Walker, and haven't played a team as good as Connecticut all season. The Huskies move on to the Elite Eight.
Prediction: Connecticut 70, San Diego State 62
Southeast Regional Semi-Final
#3 BYU (32-4) vs. #2 Florida (28-7)
These teams met in the First Round last season and put on one of the best games of the 2010 Tournament. It was a double overtime thriller, with BYU coming out on top in what was Jimmer Fredette's coming out party to America. BYU surprised many by making it this far without leading rebounder Brandon Davies, and also by how easily they disposed of Gonzaga in the Third Round. Jimmer was spectacular against Gonzaga, hitting just under 50% of his shots, scoring 34 points. He got some help from Jackson Emery, and will continue to need at least one other Cougar to score to keep BYU marching on.
The Gators got past a game UCLA team in the Third Round an due to some upsets have become the favorites to get to the Final Four out of the Southeast. Guard Erving Walker was fantastic in that game, taking over when the Gators needed him most, especially with star player Chandler Parsons struggling.
The key to this game will be who wins the battle on the boards and whether Fredette receives scoring help from his teammates. I also think that Parsons has to play much better in this game than he did against UCLA. I think that he will and I like the Gators to get revenge from last season.
Prediction: Florida 74, BYU 71
West Regional Semi-Final
#5 Arizona (29-7) vs. #1 Duke (32-4)
Another year, another Duke appearance in the Sweet 16, sigh. Michigan came so close to knocking out the Dookies but couldn't quite get the job done. Nolan Smith was again awesome, and Duke was fortunate that a last second shot by Michigan didn't fall. Kyrie Irving returned for Duke and actually led them in scoring against Hampton, but struggled with his shot against Michigan. Despite that, he was still able to get to the foul line 10 times, and scored 11 points against the Wolverines. Of slight concern for Duke was how Seth Curry was non existent, scoring 0 points against Michigan.
Arizona had to fight their way to the Sweet 16, barely outlasting Memphis and getting some help from shady officiating to beat Texas. Derrick Williams had game saving plays in both games, a block against Memphis, and a three-point play against Texas. However, the Wildcats guards, Lamont Jones and Kyle Fogg did next to nothing against Texas and will have to play much better for the Wildcats to have a chance against Duke.
I think Duke has way too many weapons for Arizona to contend with and that the Wildcats don't have the guard play needed to upset Duke.
Prediction: Duke 77, Arizona 68
Southeast Regional Semi-Final
#8 Butler (25-9) vs. #4 Wisconsin (25-8)
The Southeast didn't end up as topsy turvy as I expected. What did happen, was #1 seed Pittsburgh choked, as they do every season. I should have seen it coming but I thought things would be different this year. Just to get it out of the way, the two foul calls the referees made at the end of the Butler/Pitt game were correct. You call the game the same for all 40 minutes, none of this calling it differently based on how much time is left on the clock bs.
I didn't think this year's Butler was anywhere near last year's Butler. I felt that Gordon Hayward made that much of a difference. However, the Bulldogs are hot, winners of 11 straight and some names you might recognize from last year's run are playing huge against this year. Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack continued their impressive play from the regular season and are the reason why Butler is back in the Sweet 16.
The chic pick was to have Belmont beat Wisconsin, and after that didn't happen, it was considered highly unlikely the Badgers would be able to hang with the much more athletic Kansas State Wildcats. But the Badgers did just that and now have a great chance at making the Elite Eight. Wisconsin plays an ugly brand of basketball but has two fantastic players in Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor. The Badgers play suffocating defense and that has allowed them to win some games they probably shouldn't have.
I have continuously picked against Butler and keep being proven wrong. I am finally buying in, the Bulldogs knock off the Badgers, and head to another Elite Eight.
Prediction: Butler 63, Wisconsin 57
In Saturday's Elite Eight, I think Duke will get past Connecticut, as Kemba's one man show isn't enough to beat the various weapons that Duke has. In the other game, I think Florida will defeat Butler, as the Bulldogs magic will run out.
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