The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships

Just three games remain in the 2010-2011 NFL season. It makes me sad but the three games we have left should all be great. No random, uninteresting teams in the championship games this season. Sunday starts with the Packers against the Bears in the NFC Championship, and concludes with the Jets at the Steelers to decide the AFC Championship. Each of the games are rematches but as we have learned in the playoffs, what happened in the season means nothing.

NFC Championship: Green Bay (12-6) at Chicago (12-5), Green Bay favored by 3 1/2

Not often you will find a 6 seed favored over a 2 seed in a Championship game but that is the kind of statement the Packers made in their beatdown of Atlanta last week. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers became a true, national name with his outstanding performance, and America took notice of just how good the Packers are. I certainly noticed, as after picking against the Packers the last two weeks, I am determined not to make that mistake again. This is the third meeting between these two bitter rivals, and amazingly, just the second time in history they have met in the playoffs. Chicago won the first game they played this season at Soldier Field, 20-17 and then lost the rematch at Lambeau, which earned the Packers the final NFC playoff spot, 10-3. I don't want to focus on those games too much as they literally mean nothing to this contest. All year, the Bears have won but I have never taken them seriously as a contender. I am not sure if it is because I still have memories of Jay Cutler from last season, or because I remember the Bears losing to the Redskins at home, and the opener when they should have lost to the Lions at home. That being said, they seem to match up well with Green Bay. Their defense is able to slow down the Packers attack, something the Falcons looked incapable of doing last week. However, this game will be won on the backs of the Packers defense. The offense got most of the headlines in the Falcons win, but it was a pick six by Tramon Williams to end the first half that put the game on ice. I don't think Matt Forte will get going as much as the Bears need him to, and I expect Cutler to be harassed by the Packers all day. Playing mistake free football against the hapless Seahawks doesn't convince me that Cutler can do it against a top tier defense like Green Bay's. People keep talking about this nonsensical homefield advantage the Bears might have because of how lousy the field is at Soldier Field. The Bears were just 5-3 at home during the regular season, and I am sure the turf wasn't any better then. This game could be played in Somalia and it wouldn't matter. As of right now, the Packers are a superior football team to the Bears and they will return to their first Super Bowl in thirteen years.

Prediction: Green Bay 24, Chicago 13

New York Jets (13-5) at Pittsburgh (13-4), Pittsburgh favored by 3 1/2

I think the Jets are still celebrating their win over the Patriots last weekend. They definitely surprised me by pulling out the win. I knew they would keep it close but never thought they could actually beat what had seemed like an invincible Patriots team. Now they try to complete an incredible trifecta and beat the Steelers. If they win they would have beaten the top 3 seeds in the AFC on the road, and also beaten teams with QB's that all have won Super Bowls. The Steelers were lucky to get to this round, as they seemed down and out trailing the Ravens by 14 at the half. Then the Ravens imploded, and the Steelers made some big plays to once again beat their rivals in the playoffs. Both teams expended tons of emotion in their Divisional round games but their is one crucial difference. The Steelers expected to beat the Ravens and acted accordingly. The Jets may say they expected to beat the Patriots, but the way they celebrated indicates otherwise. Emotion plays a big part in sports, and yes the right to play for the Super Bowl is more than enough motivation. I just don't know if the Jets can reach the level necessary to be ready for this Steelers game. The Jets won at Pittsburgh a month ago and it was for two main reasons. Their special teams broke a TD with Brad Smith, and they were able to get a running game going, something that not many teams have done against the Steelers. If Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson play like they did a month ago, then the Jets have a great chance. If they struggle and the Jets have to rely on Sanchez making all of the plays, even with his weapons such as Dustin Keller, Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, and Jericho Cotchery, then that will spell trouble. Having Troy Polamalu available in this one will be a huge difference maker. The Steelers are a far better defensive team when he is in the lineup. I have gone back and forth on who I expect to win but when thinking through it I come to more reasons why I think the Steelers will win than reasons why the Jets will win. It will be close and come down to the finish, Jets cover, Steelers win.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 19, New York Jets 16

Last Week Straight Up: 1-3
Overall Straight Up: 86-68

Last Week Against the Spread: 1-3
Overall Against the Spread: 76-75-5