The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Weekend

Interesting fact about this weekend's four Wild Card games. The team with the better record is the road team in every single game. Funny how a lot of people have only chosen to complain about the NFL awarding homefield advantage to division winners in the extreme case of the Seahawks, while ignoring the fact that the same thing has happened in every other Wild Card game. Two out of the four games this weekend are very intriguing and must see TV even for the most casual of football fans. Anyone claiming to know without a doubt who will win the games between the Colts/Jets, and Packers/Eagles is lying to you. However, on the opposite side of the spectrum, Saints/Seahawks, and Ravens/Chiefs seem pretty easy to call.

NFC Wild Card: New Orleans (11-5) at Seattle (7-9), New Orleans favored by 10 1/2

People are apoplectic about the Seahawks not only making the playoffs at 7-9, but gasp, getting to host a playoff game! To which I say big deal. Homefield advantage is overrated as it is and the Seahawks are going to get bounced by the Saints whether at home, on the road, or in Zimbabwe. The Saints crushed the Seahawks at the Superdome earlier this season and I don't expect it to be much different in Seattle. The Seahawks lost their 9 games this season all by 15 points or more. I at least think that streak will come to an end this weekend. They will have QB Matt Hasselbeck for this one, but based on his play for most of the season its hard to tell if that is a good thing. There isn't really anything the Seahawks do very well. They can't run, pass, stop the run, stop the pass, etc. The crowd at Qwest Field will be loud but they can't make the Seahawks actually beat a decent team, as has been proven by the Seahawks blowout home losses to the Giants and Chiefs. The Saints aren't nearly as good as they were last year, somewhat due to injuries to their running backs all season, which has hurt QB Drew Brees. The Saints will be without both Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas the rest of the season, and will have to rely on former Seahawk Julius Jones, and Reggie Bush. Brees has made way more mistakes this season but he still can get the ball to his receivers and score quickly and in bunches. The Saints defense, while not as opportunistic as last season, actually seems more stingy and not as reliant on creating the turnover. The only way for Seattle to have a chance is if their defense can somehow play like they did against St. Louis last week. Also, it is imperative that Leon Washington be a factor in special teams. I don't think this will be a complete rout, but the Saints win, no doubt about it.

Prediction: New Orleans 27, Seattle 14

AFC Wild Card Round: New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis (10-6), Indianapolis favored by 2 1/2

These two get the Saturday prime time slot and with good reason, as they meet in a rematch of last season's AFC Championship. Both teams will look different in major areas from that game. The Jets have added Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson on the defense, and LaDainian Tomlinson and Santonio Holmes on the offensive side. The Colts will be without Dallas Clark, and Austin Collie, who are both out with season ending injuries. The Colts are coming into the playoffs on the strength of a four game winning streak but they have had to fight and scratch for every win this season. The Jets stumbled a bit late in the season but have proven to be a road tested team, going 6-2 on the road this season. QB Mark Sanchez started off the season hot, hit a rough patch, but showed some good signs in his last two games against the Steelers and Bears. The Jets offensive line will have their hands full with Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. Sanchez has to be prepared to do some quick thinking in this game, but the Jets line also has to make sure he isn't taking hits the entire game. If they give him enough time I think Braylon Edwards, Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery, and Holmes can make plays and exploit the Colts secondary. Peyton Manning has owned Rex Ryan led defenses over the years but I think this is the time Rex gets a measure of revenge. Manning has done an amazing job with depleted options, but now the Colts will be facing nothing but the best the league has to offer. I think Manning will try to force things and will cause some turnovers. Sanchez will do just enough, and the running game behind Shonn Greene and Tomlinson will make enough plays to carry the Jets to the slight upset.

Prediction: New York Jets 24, Indianapolis 21

AFC Wild Card: Baltimore (12-4) at Kansas City (10-6), Baltimore favored by 3

To me, this is the easiest game to pick this weekend, even easier than Saints over Seahawks. The Chiefs peaked a season early I think and after winning the division are basically spent. They played their starters at home against Oakland last weekend and were completely dominated. Their QB Matt Cassel has put up impressive stats but as he showed against the Raiders he is still susceptible to making very questionable decisions. The only chance the Chiefs have is if Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles are able to get past the Ravens ferocious front line. Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe can get open and be a difference maker, but simply having the passing game be effective won't be enough to help the Chiefs. The Ravens are in the playoffs for the third straight season and it is old hat for them at this point to go on the road in the playoffs. The Arrowhead crowd will not intimidate them and I don't expect them to be much of a factor. I think Ray Rice will have a good game, and I think Joe Flacco will manage the game as needed.

Prediction: Baltimore 28, Kansas City 14

NFC Wild Card: Green Bay (10-6) at Philadelphia (10-6), Philadelphia favored by 2 1/2

This will be the best game of the weekend. This is a rematch from the opening weekend of the regular season but as tends to happen over 17 weeks, a lot has changed. Michael Vick is entrenched as the Eagles starter and turned a team that looked like it was in rebuilding mode, into a Super Bowl contender. The Packers lost RB Ryan Grant in that game, and have basically eschewed a running game for the entire season. The Packers won that first game, jumping out to a big early lead and knocking Kevin Kolb out of the game. That is when Vick came in and began to bring the Eagles back, showing the same amazing athletic ability that made him so much fun to watch at Virginia Tech and Atlanta. If Kolb never gets knocked out of that game, the Eagles would have never made the playoffs with him as the starter. I think Kolb is decent, but Vick and his speed fit this offense so perfectly. If Vick can get the necessary time to make plays, it is impossible to keep up with the speed of DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and LaSean McCoy. The Packers defense is better equipped than most defenses to handle that but no one can match the Eagles stars in a foot race. The Packers offense, led by Aaron Rodgers, has been good this year but not great as people expected. I believe the biggest reason for that has been the loss of Grant. FB John Kuhn has made some plays, but their new starter Brandon Jackson, while a Cornhusker, has not done enough. The Eagles defense hasn't been all that amazing for a second straight year, and has mostly been covered for by Vick and the offense. I expect a back and forth, constant lead changing game, with David Akers kicking the winning field goal in overtime.

Prediction: Philadelphia 20, Green Bay 17

Last Week Straight Up: 11-5
Overall Straight Up: 83-63

Last Week Against the Spread: 8-8
Overall Against the Spread: 73-70-5