BCS National Championship Game#1 Auburn (13-0) vs. #2 Oregon (12-0)
They say defense wins championships but don't tell that to Auburn or Oregon. These teams have made it from being outside the Top 10 to one win from a championship on the backs of their prolific offenses.
The Tigers are led by their Heisman Trophy winner and controversial QB Cam Newton. Newton put up some astronomical numbers this season. He was a 67% passer, throwing 28 TDs and 6 INTs, and he led the Tigers in rushing with 1,409 yards and 20 TDs. Without him, the Tigers are probably 7-5 and would have already played in the Insert Shitty Bowl Name Here game. If he plays well they win tonight, if the Ducks contain him, Auburn is in deep trouble. You may not know it but the Tigers do have other options on offense besides Newton. They include RB Michael Dyer (950 yards rushing, 5 TDs), and WRs Darvin Adams (48 catches, 909 yards, 7 TDs), and Terrell Zachary (585 yards, 4 TDs).
The Ducks are more known for their rushing attack and if you asked most people, they probably couldn't even name Oregon's QB. In case you can't his name is Darron Thomas. He hasn't garnered much attention but that's not because he hasn't played well. Thomas finished the season with 28 passing TDs, 7 INTs, 2,518 yards passing. He may not be the threat that Newton is running the ball, but it is something the Tigers will have to be aware of. The Ducks most dangerous player is RB LaMichael James. James finished third in the Heisman voting and with good reason. He rushed for over 100 yards in every game he played but two, and in those he just barely missed the mark by 6 and 9 yards, respectively. He rushed for over 200 yards in a game three times and finished the year with 1,682 yards and 21 TDs. Much like Newton, if James plays the way he is capable of then the Ducks will have a great chance. If he struggles, the Ducks will have almost no shot. Thomas' favorite target is WR Jeff Maehl. Maehl had 68 catches for 943 yards and 12 TDs.
Both teams aren't known for defense but do have some play makers. The Tigers most well known defensive player is defensive tackle Nick Fairley. Only thing is Fairley is known as much for his dirty hits as he is known for being a defensive menace. Auburn was 54th in the nation in points allowed, giving up 24.5 per game. Auburn's defense has been gashed at times this season and their is potential for the Ducks to blow them out of the water. The Ducks defense gave up just 18.4 points per game, but they also faced lesser offensive competition than Auburn. Despite not giving up many points, they did give up tons of yards, including three games where they allowed over 500 yards of offense.
Everyone thinks both of these teams will put up 40 plus points but I don't think that will happen. I think there will be plenty of points but if you are a betting person I would bet the under on the over/under of 73. Neither team has played in over a month and when you combine rust with nerves this game is bound to have a sluggish start. I think by the second quarter both teams will get their nerves in check and then we will see a track meet. Auburn has been battle tested by the SEC all year and has had to crawl from behind countless times this season. Oregon has only been seriously challenged a few times and I don't believe has faced the amount of pressure and scrutiny Auburn has faced. I believe James will have a big game and I think Thomas will play well but I think Auburn is just a little bit better. I am nervous about this pick because it seems to be the prevailing sentiment, but I like Auburn in this game anyway. I can't pick against a talent like Newton, who week after week has found a way to will his team to wins. I think he shines on the big stage, earns MVP honors and gives Auburn their second national championship.
Prediction: Auburn 35, Oregon 30
Overall Record: 75-17
1 comment:
Ducks!
Post a Comment