The Hail Mary - NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round

The four Divisional Round games this weekend are all rematches from the regular season. That is slightly disappointing as I always like to see fresh matchups in the playoffs. However, all four of these games have the potential to be intriguing, down to the wire affairs. The AFC features two of the best rivalries going in the NFL right now, Ravens/Steelers and Jets/Patriots. The NFC has the Packers/Falcons in primetime Saturday night, and then the unequivocally least sexy game of the weekend, Seahawks/Bears.

AFC Divisional Round: Baltimore (13-4) at Pittsburgh (12-4), Pittsburgh favored by 3 1/2

Both games between these teams this season were decided by three points, with the road team winning each game. Over the years these teams have been as evenly matched as possible, except in the playoffs. The Steelers have met the Ravens twice in the postseason, both times at home, and came away victorious. They last met in the AFC Championship game two years ago, where rookie Joe Flacco seemed overwhelmed and threw a game sealing interception to Troy Polamalu. Flacco has 2 more seasons, and 3 more road playoff games under his belt since then. He isn't an elite quarterback but he is certainly serviceable, especially with weapons like WR Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, TJ Houshmandzadeh, and to a far lesser extent Donte Stallworth. That being said the passing game isn't the difference maker in this game. The difference maker, as he always is for the Ravens offense is RB Ray Rice. Rice has to at least be serviceable to take some of the pressure off of Flacco.

The Steelers are rested and ready to go. They ended the year with consecutive blowouts, albeit against awful teams. Ben Roethlisberger returned from his rape and played very well this season. RB Rashard Mendenhall grinded out 1,273 yards and 13 TDs. WR Mike Wallace seems to have usurped Hines Ward as Roethlisberger's go to guy. But why am I wasting time talking about these teams offenses? This game is about defense baby! The hits will be jarring, and the scoring minimal. Both teams are built on defense, and have big time players. For the Ravens it is Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Ed Reed. For the Steelers it is James Harrison, Ryan Clark, Troy Polamalu. Polamalu has been nursing an Achilles' injury but is expected to play. It has been stated ad nauseum what a difference Polamalu makes to that Steeler defense. If he wasn't playing I wouldn't have taken more than two seconds to pick the Ravens in this game. Even with him playing, I still like Baltimore. These teams are so evenly matched that I can't point to a true football reason as to why. I just think the Ravens are finally due to beat the Steelers in the playoffs.

Prediction: Baltimore 17, Pittsburgh 14

NFC Divisional Round: Green Bay (11-6) at Atlanta (13-3), Atlanta favored by 2

When these teams played in November it came down to a Matt Bryant field goal propelling the Falcons to a 20-17 win. Statistically, the Packers dominated the game but squandered opportunities by failing to convert in the red zone and turning the ball over. The Packers seem to be a chic pick in this game, which isn't surprising considering the Falcons lack of name value to the casual fan. Maybe after Saturday night, people will start to realize just how good Atlanta is. Their QB Matt Ryan is 20-2 in his career at the Georgia Dome. They have a bruising RB in Michael Turner, who rushed for over 100 yards in these teams first meeting. They have one of the best receivers in the game in Roddy White, and a future Hall of Famer TE Tony Gonzalez. The Packers beat the Eagles because Philadelphia never established their running game. No disrespect to the Packers defense, which in a surprise twist has actually carried the team this year, but Turner is going to give them fits.

The Packers offense has been good but not the flashy, high powered offense most expected. Losing Ryan Grant in the first game was huge and the main reason I picked the Eagles last week was I was expecting the Packers to be once again one dimensional. Then out of nowhere came James Starks, who rushed for 123 yards, more than he had rushed for all season. The entire time watching that game, I kept asking to no one in particular, who the hell is this guy? Starks may have caught myself and the Eagles off guard, but the Falcons will be ready for him on Saturday. Defensively, I think John Abraham will have a good game and be in Aaron Rodgers face for most of the game. Homefield plus more talent, and a slightly better team will lead to a Falcons win.

Prediction: Atlanta 24, Green Bay 20

NFC Divisional Round: Seattle (8-9) at Chicago (11-5), Chicago favored by 10

I don't even think Seahawks fans though they would beat the Saints last weekend. The Seattle offense had done nothing all season to suggest they could compete with New Orleans in a shootout but that is exactly what they did. Matt Hasselbeck turned the clock back about four or five years, throwing 4 TDs. RB Marshawn Lynch turned the clock back to his rookie season, having a huge game, including that scintillating touchdown run that sealed the win. A trip to the NFC Championship, seemingly impossible just last week, is a real possibility. Especially because the Seahawks return to Chicago where they already beat the Bears once this season.

I haven't bought into the Bears all season. They seem like a very fraudy 11-5. Their offense doesn't impress me much (Shania Twain), but I will give their defense props, as it seems to have gotten closer to its 2006 form. Jay Cutler has cut down on the interceptions this season but watch out for his nerves in this game. Cutler hasn't played in any sort of postseason game since high school. I think he will definitely come out shaky on Sunday. That means that RB Matt Forte will have to get going and it also means that the Bears offensive line will have to do a way better job protecting Cutler than they did in the first meeting. I think Seattle caught lightning in a bottle with their performance against the Saints and it is not something that they can replicate two weeks in a row.

Prediction: Chicago 24, Seattle 15

AFC Divisional Round: New York Jets (12-5) at New England (14-2), New England favored by 8 1/2

It's the shit talkers versus the shit kickers. The Jets win some but talk more, while the Patriots talk little and win lots. I enjoy Jets coach Rex Ryan's bravado but you would think he would know better than to poke at the Patriots. You can get away with that against the Colts and Peyton Manning, but no one poked the Patriots and lived to tell about it. Ryan does have some reasons to be confident. His team matches up well with New England. They have a running game behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene that can exploit New England's leaky defense. His defense, when it plays to its capabilities, can at least contain the high powered Patriots offense.

However, Rex and the Jets are at a severe disadvantage in two very important ways. One, is at the quarterback position. Tom Brady versus Mark Sanchez, I mean, come on, its not even a fair fight. However, that isn't what guarantees a New England win. Peyton Manning is way better than Sanchez and the Jets still found a way to win. No, what seals the Jets fate will be their inability to create pressure on Tom Brady. The Jets have struggled to find a consistent pass rush all season and it will prove to be their demise. Its not really a secret on how you beat the Patriots, you pressure Tom Brady. The problem is, Brady plays behind a terrific offensive line, and also Brady is excellent at making quick reads and getting rid of the ball instantly. Brady is going to pick apart the Jets secondary just like he did in their Monday night meeting. Now, I don't expect another 45-3 ass whooping, as I expect the Jets pride to allow them to keep this one competitive. But the only thing that is keeping the Patriots from another Super Bowl championship is if they beat themselves.

Prediction: New England 27, New York Jets 20

Last Week Straight Up: 2-2
Overall Straight Up: 85-65

Last Week Against the Spread: 2-2
Overall Against the Spread: 75-72-5