On one side you have traditional powers Kentucky and Connecticut. The other side consists of bracket busters Butler and VCU. I don't think a single person picked this Final Four prior to the season tipping off in November. Kentucky managed to reload and with a mix of youth and experience, is in their first Final Four since 1998. Connecticut is back for the second time in three seasons, continuing their undefeated run through tournament play this season. Butler overcame a slow start to the season and the loss of Gordon Hayward to the NBA to become the first team to reach back to back Final Fours while being neither a 1 or 2 seed in each year. VCU is in their first Final Four, and has taken the longest route in history to get there, winning 5 games to reach this point.#11 VCU (28-11) vs. #8 Butler (27-9)
Jay Bilas had an epileptic seizure when it was announced that VCU had snuck into the NCAA Tournament and would be competing in the first ever First Four. VCU used his ridiculous reaction as extra motivation and proceeded to knock off USC, whip Georgetown, demolish Purdue, survive a defensive onslaught from Florida State, and dominate Kansas. VCU took down giants from the Pac 10, Big East, Big Ten (I'm not writing that ridiculous B1G crap), ACC, and Big 12. If VCU meets Kentucky in the Finals, they would have a chance to defeat a team from each of the power conferences.
Many prognosticators including yours truly had Butler losing to Old Dominion in their brackets. Butler survived with a layup at the buzzer by Matt Howard. Then they knocked off #1 seed Pittsburgh in foul gate, had a mostly dominating win against Wisconsin, and then showed their mettle by coming from behind to beat Florida.
VCU has received contributions from different guys in their run to the Final Four. Against USC it was F Jamie Skeen leading the charge, then G Brandon Rozzell went off against Georgetown, G Bradford Burgess sank 8 three pointers in the rout of Purdue, then followed that up with 26 points against Florida State, making up for the struggles of Skeen, and G Joey Rodriguez. Skeen returned in a big way against Kansas, collecting 10 rebounds and scoring 26 points. Its cliche as hell but the team concept is what has gotten VCU to this point. Different guys stepping up, leaving defenses unsure of who to focus on. Plus, VCU has shot at an unconscious rate from three point land, that has gotten them early leads and allowed them to dictate the pace of the game.
Casual fans who saw the Final Four last year will recognize the key cogs behind Butler's return to the Final Four. F Matt Howard, and G Shelvin Mack were both key contributors to last year's team and are the main reasons Butler is in Houston. Other returning guys include G Ronald Nored, and G Shawn Vanzant. One new face is C Andrew Smith. Smith barely played last season, but this year was the third leading scorer and second leading rebounder for Butler.
This is a very tough game to call. VCU has been dominant, while Butler has grinded out victories. That being said, I think a large reason for VCU's run has been their three point shooting. That well has to dry out at some point and I think it will against Butler. Only Pitt was able to shoot well from beyond the arc against Butler in the Tournament, while Wisconsin and Florida fell in love with the three point shoot and couldn't hit them. Also, Butler coach Brad Stevens wanted to downplay the experience factor but I don't think it can be completely ruled out that Butler will not be overwhelmed by the experience.
Prediction: Butler 69, VCU 64
#4 Kentucky (29-8) vs. #3 Connecticut (30-9)
The Wildcats were very lucky to escape their Second Round game against Princeton. G Brandon Knight did virtually nothing the entire game, until hitting the game winning basket. In the Third Round, the Wildcats overcame a 9 point deficit to defeat West Virginia. The run was expected to end in the Sweet 16 against #1 overall seed Ohio State but Kentucky won a back and forth game. Finally, in the Elite 8 they knocked off the highest seed remaining, North Carolina, getting them back to the Final Four.
Connecticut rode the momentum of their Big East Tournament run, by blowing out Bucknell, then outlasting Cincinnati. In the Sweet 16 they became the first team other than BYU to beat San Diego State, and then withstood the athleticism of Arizona in the Elite 8.
The importance of F Josh Harrellson in Kentucky's run to the Final Four can't be understated. He has scored in double digits in each Tournament game, and secured at least 8 rebounds in each game. G DeAndre Liggins played huge against North Carolina, getting a crucial black late in the game, and then following it up with a backbreaking three pointer. F Terrence Jones has struggled a bit but has a chance to have his way with UCONN. G Brandon Knight is exciting but can also be reckless and has to cut down on his turnovers. G Doron Lamb has taken a back seat to Liggins in the Tournament but can stroke it from beyond the arc.
G Kemba Walker has been fantastic all season, and if not for him the Huskies wouldn't be here. However, the Tournament has also seen the emergence of G-F Jeremy Lamb. Lamb was up and down during the season, from January to early February he was superb, then he went through a drought into early March, but since has hit double figures in scoring his last 9 games, and was magnificent against San Diego State and Arizona. F-C Alex Oriakhi is a UCONN's best defensive presence, and other players to watch are freshmen G Shabazz Napier, and F Roscoe Smith.
This is a rematch from the Maui Invitational Final way back in November. UCONN blew out Kentucky in that game, 84-67. Oriakhi and Walker dominated the Wildcats in that game, while Terrence Jones showed up for Kentucky, but wasn't enough to overcome horrible play from Harrellson, Knight, and Liggins. Knight and Liggins were turnover machines in that game. Kentucky is obviously vastly improved in the four months since but I can't pick against a UCONN team that has shown all season they can win in a tournament format. The battle between Walker and Knight will be fun to watch, but too much Kemba for Kentucky to handle.
Prediction: Connecticut 73, Kentucky 70
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