2013 ACC Tournament Preview

This is the last ACC Tournament before the conference balloons to 15 teams next year with the additions of Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Notre Dame. This tournament has mostly been dominated by Duke over the last 15 years, but this season things are a bit different. The Miami Hurricanes, led by former George Mason coach Jim Larranaga captured their first ever regular season ACC title. Now they enter the Tournament as the hunted. Joining them as contenders to cut down the nets on Sunday are of course, Duke, as well as North Carolina, and over-hyped preseason favorite, North Carolina State. Last year's winners Florida State have suffered through a mediocre year, and will be gone by Friday.


1. Miami (24-6, 15-3)

The Hurricanes surprised everyone by starting off the conference season 13-0. They stomped Duke at home, beat North Carolina by double digits twice and looked like the clear best team in the conference. But towards the end of the season they began to fade a bit, and enter the ACC Tournament, losers of three of their last five, including an embarrassing home loss to lowly Georgia Tech. Larranaga has the Canes playing the type of ball Mason fans grew to love. Fluid offense, mixed with a stout defense.

Sophomore point guard Shane Larkin too a massive leap this season. He doubled his freshman numbers almost across the board and averaged a very high 36 minutes per game. Larkin doesn't have many flaws in his game. He is an excellent shooter and passer and does a great job feeding his one of his big guys, Kenny Kadji. Kadji had double doubles in his last three games, and with Larkin gives Miami one of the best interior and exterior attacks in college basketball. It has been a lost season for center Reggie Johnson. He was injured for most of it, and has trouble getting back into flow of the rotation. He still is a strong rebounder though, and when him and Kadji are together, that is the Hurricanes at their toughest on defense. Miami really only struggles because their offense is inconsistent. If that hits them this weekend, they will be upset.


2. Duke (27-4, 14-4)

Duke is coming into this weekend brimming with confidence, following a dominating win at North Carolina. That confidence also comes from the fact they are unbeaten with Ryan Kelly in the lineup. Duke's offense is filled with weapons like Kelly and their leading scorers, Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry. If Curry catches fire from three like he is capable of, then as you saw last Saturday, Duke is next to impossible to beat. Like the Hurricanes, they have guards who can shoot, as Quinn Cook complements Curry well on the wing. Where Duke is weak is that they are careless with the ball and turn it over quite a bit. They also don't have much depth, so its basically their starters playing well or bust. The return of Kelly helps their defense tremendously, as without him, Plumlee had no one to deflect pressure off of inside. I used to think Kelly was overrated, but seeing him these last few games, it is quite clear how much he improves Duke. Despite being the second seed, and as much I hate to say it, Duke is the favorites to win this weekend.


3.  North Carolina (22-9, 12-6)

Carolina was feeling pretty good about themselves, and then last Saturday happened. Looking for a silver lining, it might be a good thing. It definitely tempered the fans expectations for this team, and hopefully it made the players realize that they still have to prove themselves. One player that fits that mold and who is key to Carolina's chances this weekend are freshman point guard Marcus Paige. Paige hasn't reminded Carolina fans of Kendall Marshall, but on the bright side he hasn't brought back nightmares of Larry Drew II. What Paige really needs to work on is decision making and shooting. Poor decision making has led to him turning it over, especially the last two games where had 13 turnovers. The Heels have no shortage of offensive firepower with Reggie Bullock, PJ Hairston, and James Michael McAdoo. McAdoo is another inconsistent player, who shows flashes of brilliance but other times leaves you thinking how much better he could be. He is another guy that turns it over way too much, although turnovers almost seem to be a given with Roy Williams uptempo offense. There is a strong chance Carolina could get a third shot at Duke, but I'm not sure that is a good thing or a bad thing. It will be interesting to see which Heels team shows up in this tournament.


5. North Carolina State (22-9, 11-7)

Foolishly, the media picked the Wolfpack to be ACC champions. To the surprise of no one, outside of homer NC State fans, the Wolfpack didn't live up to the hype. They did manage to beat Duke and UNC at home, but lost some puzzling games and finished in the middle of the pack in the ACC. With that kind of opening you might be wondering why I am even previewing the Wolfpack. They do have plenty of talent, and the way the draw is set up, I think they are the sleeper team this weekend. One problem NC State had is that C.J. Leslie and and Richard Howell had to do too much. Leslie and Howell were the Wolfpack's leading scorers and rebounders. They didn't get their rebounding from many other but they have a very balanced offense, where scoring can come from almost anywhere. Lorenzo Brown, is a terrific point guard, who averaged 12 points per game, and also 7 assists. He is also very smart with the ball, averaging only 1 turnover per game. Scott Wood and T.J. Warren also scored in double figures. If these guys can all play cohesively, that is when the Wolfpack flash the potential people saw in them. The success they find or don't find this weekend will come down to the type of defense they play. They are going to have to play their best defense of the season to slow down the premiere offenses they could face this weekend.


First Round

#9 Georgia Tech over #8 Boston College
#5 North Carolina State over #12 Virginia Tech
#7 Maryland over #10 Wake Forest
#6 Florida State over #11 Clemson

Quarter-Finals

#1 Miami over #9 Georgia Tech
#5 North Carolina State over #4 Virginia
#2 Duke over #7 Maryland
#3 North Carolina over #6 Florida State

Semi-Finals

#5 North Carolina State over #1 Miami
#2 Duke over #3 North Carolina

Finals

#2 Duke over #5 North Carolina State


I believe the First Round will be mostly chalk, as well as the Quarter-Finals, with the slight upset being NC State over Virginia. If Virginia does lose right away that will probably kill their NCAA Tournament chances. Carolina having to beat Florida State three times makes me a little nervous, but still expect them to win. In the Semi-Finals, I think Miami's recent struggles will continue and show against NC State, who came oh so close to beating Miami in the regular season. I wish the third time would be the charm for Carolina against Duke but I think the Blue Devils are too talented. I also worry that this game won't happen, as it seems like almost every time these two seem headed for a collision in this tournament, some sort of upset happens. In the championship game, I expect an offensive showcase between NC State and Duke but Duke pulling out away late to win the tournament and ensure themselves a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. Yuck.