#9 Wichita State (30-8) vs. #1 Louisville (33-5)
Wichita State built on their upset of #1 seed Gonzaga, destroying fellow Cinderella LaSalle, and then knocking off #2 Ohio State. The Shockers dominated the Buckeyes throughout the game, then looked like they would choke it away, before hanging on.
The Shockers are a balanced offensive team with all five of their starters able to score and be the catalyst at different points. It could be argued that junior Cleanthony Early is the Shockers best player. His scoring dipped a bit in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight but he continued to be a consistent rebounding threat, as he has 7 rebounds in each tournament game. Guard Malcom Armstead went on a shooting rampage against the Buckeyes, throwing up 21 shots, twice the amount anyone else on the team put up. He will have to reign that in a bit against Louisville and try to get his teammates more involved. Guard Fred VanVleet has been invaluable with his contributions off the bench and is the only real consistent bench player Wichita State has. Other guards in the Shockers arsenal are Tekele Cotton, who is selective with his shots but usually shoots pretty well and Ron Baker, who at times has been dangerous from three point land. Forward Carl Hall can be dominant at times, especially with shot blocking, as he swatted away six Buckeye shots last weekend. The Shockers play great defense and the biggest reason they beat Ohio State was that they held the Buckeyes to just 31% shooting.
Louisville had Oregon hang around a little longer than they anticipated but mostly controlled the game. They had a great back and forth battle with Duke in the first half going and then Ware's shocking injury happened. It is amazing how Louisville responded after seeing something so traumatic. They bulldozed Duke in the second half and cruised to an easy victory.
Guard Russ Smith has been the best player in the tournament. He is averaging 26 points per game and looks unstoppable. Peyton Siva has been the beneficiary of Smith's strong play and a perfect complement, especially in the win against the Blue Devils. It is impressive to see how much more confident Gorgui Dieng looks on the offensive end now, while still playing very active defense, blocking shots and creating turnovers. Chane Behanan seemed to snap out of his tournament funk against Duke, grabbing 8 boards. He is very close to Ware and I expect to see him going for every rebound with tremendous ferocity. My favorite Cardinal, Luke Hancock had some very impressive moments against Duke and has become a tremendous off the bench weapon for Louisville.
I don't think many people are giving Wichita State a shot and on paper it is pretty easy to see why. Louisville just appears to be peaking and playing so much better than anyone else right now. For Wichita State to win they will have to once again play amazing defense, and will have to shoot the ball extremely well. Getting off to a fast start like they did against Ohio State would be huge, as you could tell the Buckeyes started pressing the issue way too much and somewhat panicked. This Louisville team has shown they are mentally tougher than that. They would have already been playing with amazing passion but with the added element of Ware, I think that is too much for the Shockers to overcome. Their lack of depth and shortened rotation won't cut it against a team as talented as the Cardinals.
Prediction: Louisville 75, Wichita State 64
#4 Syracuse (30-9) vs. #4 Michigan (30-7)
It was unwatchable basketball but the defense the Orange played in DC in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight is some of the best defense I have ever seen. Indiana and Marquette played like they were paralyzed against Syracuse's zone. Indiana was one of the best offensive teams in the country and the Orange held them to 50 points, 30 points below their season average. Their offense was nothing to write home about, and coach Jim Boeheim admitted that to beat Michigan that will have to improve.
The Orange starters log most of the minutes, with Boeheim shrinking his rotation to eight the last few games. As was the case during the regular season, F C.J. Fair and James Southerland have been the consistent scorers for Syracuse, but G Michael Carter-Williams has really stepped up his game, including dropping 24 on the Hoosiers. F Rakeem Christmas plays because of his size and length and if he gives the Cuse anything on offense, it is a bonus. Guard Brandon Triche can get a little sloppy with the ball at times, but in the tournament, except against Indiana, he has been smart and avoided turnovers. Baye Keita is the only bench player that has been getting any substantial minutes in the tournament and its mostly his job to play defense and draw fouls, so others don't.
The Wolverines had quite the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight. They trailed Kansas for most of their Sweet Sixteen game and looked dead in the water. Then they caught fire late, especially guard Trey Burke, who forced overtime with a loooooooooong three pointer. Eventually, the Wolverines would prevail in overtime. Then in the Elite Eight, they jumped ahead of Florida early and were unconscious from three point land, especially Nick Stauskas who hit all six of his attempted three pointers. The game was never in doubt and the Wolverines were back in the Final Four for the first time since the Fab Five era.
The Wolverines are especially dangerous on offense because of their ability to hit the three. Florida trailed by a ton early because of the Wolverines hitting almost anything from three point land. Stauskas shoots 45% from three point land, and against Florida broke out of a 2-12 slump he had been in prior to that in the tournament. As Burke goes, so do the Wolverines. He struggled early against Kansas, but once he caught fire it was a whole different game and Michigan team. Burke is a threat in almost every way and will be a tough matchup for the Cuse zone. Tim Hardaway Jr. found saw his shot abandon him a bit in the last two rounds and stubbornly kept throwing it up against Florida. He needs to do a better job of letting the game come to him, because forcing anything against Syracuse is a recipe for disaster. Glenn Robinson III was invisible against Florida, so he is someone to watch on Saturday. His disappearing act wasn't as noticeable as it normally would have been because Mitch McGary continued to dominate. McGary is averaging over 11 rebounds per game, almost double his season average. He is also averaging 17.5 points per game, 10 more than his season average. The Wolverines were a dangerous team without his high impact contributions, now they are one of the top two teams with his increased effectiveness.
I think the Wolverines will be somewhat slowed down by the Cuse zone but I think they will avoid the problems that plagued the other teams that have faced it. I think they have the shooters to not have to force everything inside, which will allow them to avoid the turnovers that the Cuse feast on. For Syracuse, I don't think their offense is capable of producing the points necessary to beat Michigan unless their defense remains on the insanely high level it has been on. It is somewhat hard to bet against the Cuse with the roll their defense has been on, but it's a testament to the confidence I have in the Wolverines offense that I believe they will win.
Prediction: Michigan 65, Syracuse 60
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