#1 Miami Heat (66-16) vs. #8 Milwaukee Bucks (38-44)
When the Heat added Ray Allen in the offseason it seemed to cement that they would be repeating as NBA champions. Nothing during the season has changed my opinion of that, and this first round matchup with the hapless Bucks should be a cakewalk. The Heat begin and end with their big three of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Bosh especially seems more comfortable with his place in the big three and had a very productive year. Allen was exactly what the Heat hoped for, remaining one of the best pure shooters in basketball, despite being 37. Depth issues remain a concern but not nearly as much of one after last season when the Heat proved that it didn't really matter. Shane Battier, Mario Chalmers, and Norris Cole have all shown they can step up and contribute when need be.
The Bucks are just lucky to be here. They are well under .500 and quite frankly not really worthy of being a playoff team. Their best player is PG Monta Ellis, who appeared in every game and led the team in scoring and steals. Brandon Jennings is their second best weapon but he has been in and out of the doghouse this season. Larry Sanders and Samuel Dalembert give the Bucks a decent inside tandem, while Mike Dunleavy and J.J. Redick both are strong shooters. The Bucks are a strong rebounding team, but their weaknesses defensively has been their achilles heel this season.
I think the Bucks could potentially steal a game in Milwaukee if they shoot well and dominate the Heat on the boards like they are capable of. But otherwise, I expect James, Wade and Bosh to dominate and the Heat to breeze past Milwaukee.
Prediction: Heat over Bucks, 4-0
#4 Brooklyn Nets (49-33) vs. #5 Chicago Bulls (45-37)
The Nets were up and down the entire season. They got off to a hot start, then struggled and fired Avery Johnson. P.J. Carlesimo was inserted as the interim coach and the team responded, finishing 16 games over .500 and earning a four seed. One of the biggest and I mean biggest reasons for the Nets success was Brook Lopez. Lopez remained mostly healthy this season and led the Nets in scoring and blocks. He would have led the team in rebounding, but Reggie Evans earned that by being an absolute beast on the glass. The Nets have other big men with two infamous players, Kris Humphries and Andray Blatche. Humphries goes in and out of Carlesimo's doghouse so who know how much action he will see. As the Nets envisioned, Deron Williams and Joe Johnson have formed a pretty potent back court. Johnson remains a streaky shooter, but the Nets have seemed to find a way to share shots between him, Williams, and Lopez. The Nets don't have that great of a bench and that has hurt them at times. I mean when Jerry Stackhouse can still get minutes on your team, that's saying something and it isn't good.
The Bulls dealt with the will he or won't he question for most of the season about whether Derrick Rose would return to play. Turns out he hasn't and it looks like he won't. He hasn't been ruled out of the playoffs but I'd be shocked if he came back now. I don't really like how he has handled things, especially with him being medically cleared over a month ago. He basically has barely played two seasons in a row now, and is costing the Bulls a ton of money. The Bulls are clearly a team that takes on their coach's personality in Tom Thibodeau, as they ranked third in defense. Unfortunately, without Rose their offense has struggled, ranking 29th in the league. Luol Deng led the Bulls in scoring, barely edging out Carlos Boozer. Joakim Noah did just about everything, leading the Bulls in rebounds, blocks, and steals. Nate Robins and Kirk Hinrich have taken over at point guard for Rose. Robinson is very hit and miss as always. He can electrify and then he can leave you shaking your head with some of the decisions he makes. Shooting guard remains a weakness for the Bulls as Marco Belinelli is okay, but not anyone teams are afraid of.
For the Bulls to get past the nets Boozer, Deng, and Noah will have to play great in every single game. The Nets have a clear advantage at the guard position so the Bulls will have to win the rebounding battle and maximize their chances of scoring. They also have to play top notch defense and frustrate Williams and Johnson. This should be a good series, filled with close games. I expect it to go 7 and for the Bulls to prevail.
Prediction: Bulls over Nets, 4-3
#2 New York Knicks (54-28) vs. #7 Boston Celtics (41-40)
The Knicks won their first division title since 1994 and were able to overcome injuries to Amar'e Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler and the loss of Jeremy Lin to free agency. Now, the question is, how will they deal with being the favorites? Also, can they win their first playoff series since 1999? Anthony led the league in scoring and the Knicks will go however far he can take them. They also have a fantastic sixth man in J.R. Smith who was only behind Anthony in scoring for New York. The point guard combo of Raymond Felton and 100-year old Jason Kidd has been surprisingly effective, and recently added to that group has been Pablo Prigioni, who is questionable for game 1 due to a sprained ankle. The Knicks are hoping Stoudemire can return from injury for the playoffs, but even if he does how much he can contribute remains to be seen. Defensively, the Knicks improvement over the last few years, has been replacing Mike D'Antoni as coach, and also the presence of Tyson Chandler. Chandler in the middle makes it very difficult for teams to penetrate the lane and he is a weapon that can't be appreciated enough.
The Celtics have been mired in mediocrity for most of the season. They decided not to be sellers at the trade deadline and see if their group of vets could make one final run. Last year they struggled during the regular season, but then got hot in the playoffs and were just a game away from the NBA Finals. However, last year they had Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo and this year they do not. The Celtics started off hot when Rondo went down with his injury but have leveled off since then and clearly miss him. Avery Bradley is solid but he isn't a game changer like Rondo. The team still revolves around Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, while Jeff Green, Brandon Bass, and Courtney Lee are their other reliable players.
This should be a sexy series just based on name brands alone. Then you have the storyline of Carmelo vs. KG dating back to the regular season, whether the Knicks can finally get over the hump and win a series, and if the Celtics have one last run in them. I expect a hard fought, back and forth series that goes seven games. At that point, it comes down to who has the best player on the court and the Knicks will have that with Anthony, propelling them to the next round.
Prediction: Knicks over Celtics, 4-3
#3 Indiana Pacers (49-32) vs. #6 Atlanta Hawks (44-38)
Both of these teams come limping into the playoffs in what is easily the least interesting first round series. The Hawks are once again stuck in that 5-6 range they can't seem to get out of. The Hawks have talent but have never had that one player that is transcendent and that has prevented them from being serious contenders year after year. Josh Smith is good, but not great and is held back by his penchant for turning the ball over. The Hawks cause wasn't helped when they lost Lou Williams for the season. John Jenkins has played decently as his replacement at shooting guard but isn't consistent. Al Horford and Smith do the bulk of the rebounding for the Hawks because C Zaza Pachulia was also lost for the year with an injury. They have a pretty good point guard in Jeff Teague as he shoots the ball well and is good at finding the open man. He does make a few too many poor choices though and will try to force things. Kyle Korver has been a nice addition and continues doing what he does best, knock down threes.
The Pacers were without Danny Granger for the bulk of the year but otherwise mostly avoided the injury bug to their other key players. Paul George has turned into a star, leading the team in scoring, while Roy Hibbert has continued his ascension as one of the better big men in the league, working as a rebounding and shot blocking machine. Much like Teague, George Hill isn't a household name, but he is an effective point guard and is smart with the ball. David West continues to be reliable year after year and teams up with George to do the bulk of the Pacers scoring. Lance Stephenson rounds out the starting five, while consistent bench guys are Tyler Hansborough, D.J. Augustin, and Ian Mahinmi.
The Pacers aren't great offensively, but they are tough inside and were second in the league in points allowed per game. Their rugged style is going to wear down Atlanta, and frustrate Smith. I expect the series to go back and forth to start, before the Pacers take over and close out the Hawks in six, while America collectively yawns.
Prediction: Pacers over Hawks, 4-2
1 comment:
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