#4 North Carolina (20-16) vs. #3 Dayton (24-12)I haven't written much about North Carolina this year, because, quite frankly, there hasn't been much to say. They sucked for most of the season and after losing to Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament, I was hoping that meant this awful season was ending. Instead, the Heels got a #4 seed in the NIT Tournament. I was thinking Carolina might win their home game against William & Mary but beyond that was expecting a quick exit. Instead Carolina reeled off back to back impressive road wins at Mississippi State and UAB to book a trip to Madison Square Garden. Then on Tuesday night, in the Semi-Finals, Carolina came from five points behind late to send the game to overtime against Rhode Island. The Heels were able to just barely outlast the Rams in overtime, winning 68-67.
Of course making the NIT Championship is bittersweet for the program and its fans. Carolina plays to win National Championships, not NIT Championships. However, I have to admit I have been just as passionate about these games as I would have been any NCAA Tournament games for Carolina. At least now the team can have a somewhat decent feeling going into next season, and the thoughts of a quick turnaround for Carolina don't seem so crazy.
The Heels will try to make an interesting bit of history. If they defeat the Dayton Flyers they would become the first team to ever win a National Championship and then an NIT Championship in back-to-back seasons. The Heels will definitely be tested by the Flyers. To get to the NIT Championship game, Dayton won at home against Illinois State, then won road games at Cincinnati and Illinois, before defeating Mississippi at the Garden. Their most prominent player is F Chris Wright, who is a bit of a YouTube sensation for his powerful dunks. G-F Chris Johnson doesn't have the name recognition of Wright but he was huge in the Semi-Final win against Mississippi. He finished with 22 points, 10 rebounds and 4 steals.
The Flyers can play suffocating defense and if they force the Heels to make a lot of turnovers then they will likely be cutting down the nets. The Heels have always had trouble avoiding turnovers, even during their dominant seasons under Roy Williams. Larry Drew III will have to make good passes and try to control the tempo. As much as I have railed on Drew, he has played very well during the NIT Tournament. Seniors Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard will have to continue to provide the leadership, while Will Graves, and Tyler Zeller will need to continue their improved offensive play. The Heels will be looking for F John Henson to have a much better game than he did against Rhode Island. Another key will be the Tar Heels defense. Carolina has played exceptional defense in the last two games. They can't allow Dayton get to their average of 70 points and expect to be able to win.
I won't be buying any NIT Championship shirts if the Heels are victorious but it would be an accomplishment I think the team should be proud of. I expect another tough game for Carolina, but much like they did Tuesday night, they will somehow find a way to win late.
Prediction: North Carolina 64, Dayton 60
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