a true home team. The Butler Bulldogs will be playing just five minutes from their campus on Saturday. The only reason it is even remotely surprising that Butler has made it this far is because they are in the Horizon League. They have been a Top 20 team for virtually the entire season and have won 24 straight games. Michigan State is back in the Final Four for the sixth time in twelve seasons. West Virginia has reached the Final Four for the first time since 1959, and the Duke Blue Devils (booooooooooooooooooooo) are back after a six year drought.
#5 Michigan State (28-8) vs. #5 Butler (32-4)
Some will argue that the Spartans got a lucky road to the Final Four, but you can't argue with their success. Every game has been a nail-biter for the Spartans, starting in the First Round against New Mexico State, followed by the buzzer beater against Maryland in the Second Round. Against Northern Iowa in the Sweet 16, Michigan State came from behind to win, and then squeaked by Tennessee in the Elite 8.
Butler started off the tournament by whipping UTEP, and then coming from behind late to beat Murray State in the Second Round. No one gave them a chance in the Sweet 16 against Syracuse, but the Bulldogs dominated the game. They also dominated Kansas State for most of their Elite 8 game, and now find themselves in their first Final Four ever.
The Spartans have been battling injuries throughout the tournament, including missing leading scorer G Kalin Lucas. However, in his place G Durrell Summers came up huge against Northern Iowa and Tennessee, averaging 20 points per game. F Raymar Morgan needs to step his game up a bit as he has been wildly inconsistent, although that has pretty much always been the story with him. The Spartans biggest strength is that you never know who might step up and play big for them. Forward Draymond Green is capable of coming off the bench and providing a spark, as is guard Chris Allen.
G-F Gordon Hayward and G Shelvin Mack are the Bulldogs biggest threats. Hayward is a legitimate NBA prospect, while Mack has played fantastic in the tournament, scoring points, grabbing rebounds and dishing out assists. F Willie Veasley had a quiet game against Kansas State, and will be needed to pick up his scoring against the Spartans.
This game should be a great defensive battle. The Bulldogs haven't allowed more than 59 points in any tournament game. If that happens again Saturday their miracle run will continue. With that being said, I am finally learning that it is not wise to pick against Tom Izzo in March. Somehow, someway his teams find ways to win. There is no doubt he will have them prepared, and also ready to take on what will essentially be a road game. I think the Bulldogs might be a little distracted by the big atmosphere, and the pressure that will come with playing at home. The Spartans will be in the Championship game for a second straight year.
Prediction: Michigan State 65, Butler 58
#2 West Virginia (31-6) vs. #1 Duke (33-5)
Duke seemed destined to make the Final Four when the brackets were released a few weeks ago and sure enough they did. They crushed Arkansas Pine-Bluff in the First Round, and had little trouble with California in the Second Round. Purdue hung around for a bit in the Sweet 16 but then Duke cruised. Duke's toughest game came against Baylor in the Elite 8. Baylor's athleticism was almost too much for Duke to handle and definitely would have been last season. However, Duke got big rebounds when needed, played suffocating defense and squeaked out a win.
West Virginia's tournament run started inauspiciously, falling behind Morgan State 10-0 in their First Round game. However, since then the Mountaineers have been close to dominate. They came back to crush Morgan State, then controlled their Second Round game against Missouri. Washington gave them some trouble in the Sweet 16 but the Mountaineers still ended up winning by 13. Then in the Elite 8 the Mountaineers took down big, bad Kentucky by a final of 73-66, although the score makes the game seem much closer than it really was.
The Blue Devils success this year is pretty easy to understand. They are a great offensive team, with their three headed monster of Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler. Plus, they are one of the best defensive teams in the country. Size had been the biggest problem for Duke over the last few years but now they can match up with anyone because of C Brian Zoubek's improved play, and the emergence of Miles and Mason Plumlee. Singler had an awful game against Baylor, shooting 0-10. A year ago Duke wouldn't have been able to overcome that, but now they have the number of weapons necessary to be a championship team.
The Mountaineers are led by forwards Da'Sean Butler, Devin Ebanks, and Kevin Jones. As I suspected the Mountaineers haven't missed G Darryl Bryant yet, because Joe Mazzulla has been able to step in and fill his shoes. I don't think the Mountaineers can count on another 17-point effort from Mazzulla, but they don't even really need that. As long as he provides a steadying presence, and dishes the ball to the forwards, those guys can handle the scoring load.
These teams met two years ago in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. Some of the players are the same, and it was a game that West Virginia took control of late. I am biased as hell against Duke but I think the Mountaineers are legit. I worry about their guards hanging with Scheyer and Smith but I just can't pick Duke to win.
Prediction: West Virginia 71, Duke 68
2 comments:
I still have trouble believing these are the teams in the Final Four...
Not even close big guy, not even close.
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