The 2010 CAA Tournament tips off Friday in Richmond, VA. #1 seed Old Dominion comes in as the favorite to cut down the nets and book their ticket to March Madness. However, there are five other teams that definitely have a shot at leaving as champion.#1 Old Dominion (23-8, 15-3)
The Monarchs dominated the CAA standings for most of the season. They also are the only CAA team that could possibly earn an at-large berth if they don't win the conference tournament. The Monarchs are led by senior F Gerald Lee. Lee is the only player on the team to average double figures in points this year for ODU at 14.3 a game. Surprisingly, Lee was third on the Monarchs in rebounding this season, behind F Frank Hassell's 6.5 per game, and G-F Ben Finney's 5.8 per game. Finney is also the Monarchs main distributor and thrives off setting up chances for Lee to finish. ODU is a very good defensive team and it will take a team playing at their absolute peak for the Monarchs to lose.
#2 Northeastern (19-11, 14-4)
Senior Matt Janning is looking to go out in style and avoid another underachieving trip to Richmond. Last year the Huskies were stunned by Towson in their opening round game. The potential for them to bow out early again this year is there. They enter the CAA Tournament losers of three of their last five, and barely defeated George Mason on Saturday, largely because of a bogus foul call to end the game. They also might have to play Hofstra on Saturday. Janning leads the team averaging 15.1 points per game, but the Huskies also get scoring from G Chaisson Allen, F Manny Adako, and C Nkem Ojougboh.
#3 William & Mary (20-9, 12-6)
In the 2008 CAA Tournament, the Tribe were the Cinderella team that shocked everyone by getting to the championship game. They won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. The Tribe were garnering possible at-large talk earlier this year, and while that talk has died, the Tribe have the guns to win the Tournament and not have to worry about Selection Sunday. Senior G David Schneider is their best player, scoring 15.8 points per game, getting 1.4 steals per game, and also picking up over 6 rebounds a game. Sophomore G-F Quinn McDowell is another threat, while F Marcus Kitts is their most effective rebounder.
#4 George Mason (17-13, 12-6)
It is Tournament time, which over the last few seasons has meant it is the Patriots time to shine. Mason had made it to the CAA Championship game three straight seasons. However, the draw they got in this year's Tournament may prevent that from happening. Mason will more than likely have to play VCU on Saturday, and the Rams will basically have home-court advantage. Mason struggled mightily down the stretch, losing six of their last eight games. The Patriots have been wildly inconsistent this season, so no one knows what to expect out of them. G Cam Long has really regressed the last month, and for Mason to have any shot to make a run, he has to play well in every game. Not much was realistically expected of Mason this season, but another year, and another loss to VCU in the conference tournament will be a bitter pill to swallow.
#5 Virginia Commonwealth (20-8, 11-7)
The Rams are the sleeper of this year's tournament. They have the home-court advantage playing in Richmond, they have a dominant big man in C Larry Sanders, and a dangerous G, Joey Rodriguez. They also enter relatively hot, winning 7 of their last 10 games. G Bradford Burgess, and F Jamie Skeen also have to be dealt with. Rodriguez is almost impossible to stop when he is on, and if he and Sanders get hot, the Rams will pull off an upset or two.
#7 Hofstra (18-13, 10-8)
You might be wondering where #6 seed Drexel is, but to me Hofstra has a much greater chance of winning this weekend than Drexel. The Pride are the hottest team in the CAA, closing the regular season with wins in 9 of their last 10 games. Those wins haven't been close either with the Pride winning 8 of those games by double digits. I have no idea what Tom Pecora did to this team but they were dead in the water about a month ago. They had lost five in a row and were getting shellacked. G Charles Jenkins is probably the best player playing this weekend. He averages 20.4 points per game, doles out 3.8 assists, and grabs 4.4 rebounds per game. However, Jenkins has a ton of pressure on him, because if he struggles the Pride don't have much to fall back on.
Below you will find my prediction for Friday's First Round games and then my predictions for the games I think will happen the rest of the way.
First Round
#8 Towson over #9 UNC-Wilmington
#5 Virginia Commonwealth over #12 Delaware
#7 Hofstra over #10 Georgia State
#11 James Madison over #6 Drexel
Quarter-Finals
#1 Old Dominion over #8 Towson
#5 Virginia Commonwealth over #4 George Mason
#7 Hofstra over #2 Northeastern
#11 James Madison over #3 William & Mary
Semi-Finals
#1 Old Dominion over #5 Virginia Commonwealth
#7 Hofstra over #11 James Madison
Finals
#1 Old Dominion over #7 Hofstra
I think the veteran leadership on Old Dominion will carry them to the CAA Championship. Their Semi-Final game against VCU will be a great test for them. I like their to be a few upsets in the tournament. Hofstra would be catching Northeastern at the right time, while I think JMU can play that William & Mary, Towson role we have seen the last few years. The unexpected team that makes a run. I think by time Hofstra makes it to Monday night they will be dead tired and after hanging with the Monarchs most of the game, will fall late.
6 comments:
Chris, will you weigh in on your thoughts on Larranaga? Particularly whether you think he should be kept around.
Of course he should be kept around. Him taking us to the Final Four earned him a lifetime contract in my eyes.
That being said, he did not do a good coaching job this year. Too much shuffling of the lineup, too many of the new guys would play a lot of minutes one game, then not at all.
For Mason to be far better next year he needs to find a lineup he likes early and stick with it. Players, especially young ones, won't build confidence by having their minutes yanked around.
So you definitely believe he has what it takes to grow the program? That's promising.
Our talent just doesn't seem to mesh with performance to me. Like you said though, maybe we just haven't found the right lineups. But should it take long to figure that out?
I'm not trying to roast Larranaga. I like the guy a lot, but I think we've recruited enough talent and paid him enough to hold him to a higher standard.
I think he can, I mean honestly, he already has grown our program. I get what you are saying about taking us to that next, Gonzaga, or Butler like level, but honestly we won't get a better coach than Larranaga.
However, with all of the talent he has, if we struggle next year I won't be happy. The shine of the Final Four is already starting to wear off, we are running out of time to truly take advantage of the exposure to recruits that came with it.
It looks like we will be playing in either the CBI or CIT this year, it can give us some much needed experience. If we can play well in those tournaments it will also give our guys some much needed confidence.
Cam Long will need to be coached up next year. He really fell off towards the end of the season and that was a big reason we struggled so much.
Yeah, it would be great to see us compete out of conference in something like CBI or CIT.
Also, with this post I have now made more comments than "Anonymous". Suck it, Anonymous!
Thank you for that Travis! I am really tired of hearing about this guys girlfriend that broke up with him. I wish he would stay on topic!
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