The Sweet 16 continues Friday night and features more Cinderella's and a couple of teams used to being at this stage. Northern Iowa took out my pick to win it all, Kansas and ruined brackets across the country. St. Mary's or Team Australia knocked off Villanova, while Baylor and Purdue surprised many by getting to this point. Duke, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Tennessee have gotten this far often over the years and will be looking to meet their fans expectations of reaching a Final Four.Midwest Regional Semi-Final
#6 Tennessee (27-8) vs. #2 Ohio State (29-7)
These teams met in the 2007 Sweet 16 where the Vols had a huge lead before collapsing late to the Buckeyes. Both teams can have many different weapons that have to be accounted for. For Ohio State, it starts with G-F Evan Turner, and continues with guards William Buford and Jon Diebler, as well as G-F David Lighty. Lighty was there for that 2007 battle, as was Vols F-C Wayne Chism.
The Vols counter with Chism, G Scotty Hopson, and guards J.P. Prince, and Bobby Maze. Tennessee and Ohio State are about equal offensively, but the Buckeyes have a slight edge defensively. Turner played alright last weekend but will need to limit his turnovers for the Buckeyes to have hopes of making it to Indianapolis.
This game will be a lot like the 2007 battle and should come down right to the finish. I think Turner is a superstar and will make big plays at the end of the game, carrying Ohio State to victory.
Prediction: Ohio State 70, Tennessee 66
South Regional Semi-Final
#10 St. Mary's (28-5) vs. #3 Baylor (27-7)
Gaels C Omar Samhan became a household name last weekend with his dominating performances against Richmond and Villanova. Another force inside for the Gaels is F-C Ben Allen. The Gaels just don't have bigs though, they have a lethal guard combination in Mickey McConnell, and Matthew Dellavedova.
The battle to watch will be Samhan against Bears F-C Ekpe Udoh. If Udoh can limit Samhan than the Bears will have a great shot at winning. Like the Gaels, Baylor has fantastic guards as well. LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter (great names), are fantastic at scoring, dishing, and in Dunn's case even rebounding.
I am very tempted to take the Gaels in this one and probably would if I hadn't already picked Baylor in one of my brackets to make the Final Four. I don't think Samhan will be shut down but I think the Bears have the slight advantage in guard play, which will be enough to get the victory.
Prediction: Baylor 77, St. Mary's 71
Midwest Regional Semi-Final
#9 Northern Iowa (30-4) vs. #5 Michigan State (26-8)
G Ali Farokhmanesh is the Panthers fourth-leading scorer, but after hitting game winning baskets to beat UNLV and Kansas, he is now their most famous player. The Panthers best player is C Jordan Eglseder, who led the Panthers in scoring and rebounding. Guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe is the Panthers leading assist man and also averages a little over 10 points a game.
The big story for the Spartans will be how they will respond to playing a full game without G Kalin Lucas. They also have another injured guard in Chris Allen, and it is not known how much he will play in this game.
The Spartans showed great resolve in overcoming these injuries to defeat Maryland on Sunday. However, I think a full game without Lucas will be too much for the Spartans to overcome against the Panthers. I like the Panthers to continue their Cinderella march to the Elite Eight.
Prediction: Northern Iowa 66, Michigan State 63
South Regional Semi-Final
#4 Purdue (29-5) vs. #1 Duke (31-5)
Once the Boilermakers lost Robbie Hummel for the season any thoughts of a Final Four seemed dashed. That seemed even more true when against Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament they were held to 11 points in the first half.
However, Purdue showed great resilience last weekend, getting by Sienna and a very good Texas A & M team. G E'Twaun Moore and C JaJuan Johnson will have to play at an extremely high level for the Boilermakers to have a chance against Duke.
The Blue Devils looked very good in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The biggest difference between this year's Blue Devils and last years is the emergence of Greg Zoubek. Zoubek will be challenged by Johnson and his effectiveness will likely be limited. However, Duke can overwhelm the Boilermakers with Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and the usually overlooked Nolan Smith. I just think the Boilermakers can't score enough to keep up with Duke.
Prediction: Duke 75, Purdue 63
On Sunday, I like Ohio State to end Northern Iowa's dream season in the Midwest Regional Final. In the other game, I like Baylor to upset Duke, and advance to their first Final Four since 1950.
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