1. Houston Texans
2012 Record: 12-4, AFC South champs
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (8th season Houston, 61-55 career)
Key Additions: WR DeAndre Hopkins, FB Greg Jones, CB Alan Ball, S Ed Reed, P Shane Lechler, K Randy Bullock
Key Losses: RB Justin Forsett, WR Kevin Walter, TE James Casey, OT Rashad Butler, DE/OLB Connor Barwin, S Glover Quin, K Shayne Graham, P Donnie Jones
2013 Outlook: The Texans were on fire to start the year last season. They were 11-1 after 12 games and appeared to be on track for homefield advantage and a favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. An embarrassing Monday night loss at New England seemed to derail their season, as they would lose two of their next three after that game, and then were dominated by the Patriots in the playoffs. Their struggles at the end of the season have led to questions about QB Matt Schaub. People wonder if he is good enough to bring a Super Bowl championship to Houston. Defenders of Schaub would say that the Texans haven't surrounded him with a ton of talent at the receiver position. WR Andre Johnson is good but is getting older and has started to slow down due to injuries. Kevin Walter wasn't cutting it as a number two receiver so he is now gone. The Titans are hopeful that they have found the complement to Johnson in rookie DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson. Tight end Owen Daniels is pretty good but not quite the player he was a couple seasons ago. The big question for Houston is the health of leading rush Arian Foster. It appears Foster will be kept out of the preseason with a sore back, but coach Gary Kubiak insists that Foster should be ready for Week 1. While the ground game wasn't as good last season as it has been in previous years, it still was effective enough. It helps to take a lot of pressure off Schaub as well, so if Foster can't go the Texans would have to hope that Ben Tate can recapture his 2011 form. The Texans have managed to maintain stability on their offensive line, led by left tackle Duane Brown and center Chris Myers. The Texans defense is pretty good but needs to improve their pass coverage. They were torched by Tom Brady on multiple occasions last season. Everyone knows about J.J. Watt, probably the best defensive player in the game right now. Watt put up 20.5 sacks, is constantly batting balls down at the line and just is a monster on the field. As long as he is healthy, the Texans will be imposing up front. Other strong pass rushers on the team are Antonio Smith and Whitney Mercilus. Smith could miss some of the season due to suspension. He got into a fight with Richie Incognito in last week's preseason game and swung his helmet at him. The Texans will be more than happy to welcome back LB Brian Cushing. Cushing missed most of last season after tearing his ACL. He has already returned for the preseason and will be ready to go Week 1. In order to help the struggles of the secondary, the Texans signed aging S Ed Reed from Baltimore. It will be interesting to see how Reed does outside of the Ravens system and how much he has left in the tank. Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph are back as cornerbacks. After missing his rookie season, Randy Bullock is ready to take over at kicker, while Shane Lechler is the new punter. Lechler isn't an upper echelon punter anymore but still more than serviceable. This season will ready ride on what kind of step forward Schaub can take as a player. The Texans were firing on all cylinders during most of last year, before it came crumbling down at the wrong time. I think they can find that mojo again, and will be definitely players in the battle for the AFC.
Prediction: 12-4
2. Indianapolis Colts
2012 Record: 11-5, 2nd place AFC South
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano (2nd season Indianapolis, 2-3 career)
Key Additions: DE/OLB Bjoern Werner, QB Matt Hasselbeck, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, OT Gosder Cherilus, DE/DT Ricky Jean-Francois, NT Aubrayo Franklin, CB Greg Toler, S LaRon Landry
Key Losses: QB Drew Stanton, WR Donnie Avery, WR Austin Collie, OT Winston Justice, DE Clifton Geathers, DE/OLB Dwight Freeney, CB Jerraud Powers, S Tim Zbikowski
2013 Outlook: A large reason for the Colts turnaround last season was QB Andrew Luck. However, where I disagree is with those that seem to think that Luck has already arrived. Luck had some nice numbers but some of his numbers point to a player that is being crowned way too fast by people. He threw 18 interceptions and had a completion percentage of just 54 percent. Part of that was Bruce Arians fault for constantly passing, despite having a running back in Vick Ballard that was averaging over 4 yards per carry. He might improve upon those numbers this season due to new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton. Hamilton was his offensive coordinator at Stanford and I think was a great hire by Chuck Pagano. This past off-season the Colts added Ahmad Bradshaw at running back, and with Arians now gone, maybe they will discover the run game this season. A new weapon at wide receiver for Luck will be former Raider Darrius Heyward-Bey who replaces Donnie Avery. Bey had his moments in Oakland but he definitely could use a fresh start where he won't be as burdened by the label of first round pick. Reggie Wayne looked revitalized last season, putting outstanding numbers, especially for a receiver in his mid 30's. Rookie T.Y. Hilton showed a lot of promise and could make a major leap in year number two. The Colts also have two potential studs at tight end with Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. With the Patriots tight ends in shambles, these two might be ready to take over the mantle of best tight end duo in the AFC. The Colts offensive line is mostly young and is helped out by Luck's mobility. Gosder Cherilus was brought in the off-season, to join a line without a lot of names you would have heard of. The defense was a weakness last season, so the Colts went out and added a lot of new faces. The defensive line has two new faces in former 49ers Aubrayo Franklin and Ricky Jean-Francois. Franklin has bounced around the league the last few seasons, so it remains to be seen how helpful he will be. Francois was stuck behind too many players in San Francisco, but showed some potential when he got the chance. Dwight Freeney is gone but Robert Mathis remains, and is still a strong presence on the defensive side. Pat Angerer will flank him at linebacker as he fights back from an injury plagued 2012 season. The Colts also added some players to their secondary including LaRon Landry and Greg Toler. Like the moves on the defensive line, these are moves that are tough to predict. They could work out, or these guys could be injured and add nothing. Vontae Davis proved to be a nice addition last season from Miami and the Colts are counting on him to serve as a steadying presence on the defense. On special teams, kicker Adam Vinatieri remains ageless, continuing his run of consistency. Pat McAfee is back at punter, and probably more well known for being arrested, than anything he has ever done on the field. A tougher schedule and a defense that still isn't very good will be the Colts undoing in 2013. It also remains to be seen just how good a coach Chuck Pagano really is. His courageous fight with cancer last season was a rallying cry for the team, but now he will be expected to lead the Colts throughout a full season. I expect Luck to improve upon his numbers some but am not yet convinced we are watching a future superstar. The Colts won't be a losing team this year, but they won't be a winning one either.
Prediction: 8-8
3. Tennessee Titans
2012 Record: 6-10, 3rd place AFC South
Head Coach: Mike Munchak (3rd season Tennessee, 15-17 career)
Key Additions: G Chance Warmack, WR Justin Hunter, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Shonn Greene, WR Kevin Walter, TE Delanie Walker, G Andy Levitre, C Rob Turner, S Bernard Pollard
Key Losses: QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Javon Ringer, TE Jared Cook, G Steve Hutchinson, G Leroy Harris, OLB Will Witherspoon, CB Ryan Mouton, S Jordan Babineaux
2013 Outlook: You probably didn't notice the Titans 6-10 season last year. It wasn't all that interesting, and their best player, RB Chris Johnson, talks a better game than he plays these days. The Titans weren't very good offensively or defensively, ranking in the bottom part of the league is most categories. QB Jake Locker battled through injuries and inconsistency throughout 2012. It's hard to truly judge him yet as he injuries have been an issue his first two seasons. The Titans are hopeful he can remain upright this entire season and then they can truly judge where he is as a player. The aforementioned Johnson was better in 2012 than he was in 2011, but is still having issues playing consistently. His numbers would probably seem better too if he didn't keep talking about how he was going to rush for over 2,000 yards each year, and then not come close. He might be helped by the presence of Shonn Greene backing him up. Last season when Javon Ringer went down it pretty much left Johnson to carry the entire load. Greene can take some of those carries this season and could leave Johnson much more fresh. The Titans do have some talent at wide receiver with Nate Washington, Kendall Wright, and Kenny Britt. Kendall Wright had a strong rookie season and should continue to improve. Washington and Britt are more questionable. Washington still seems to be a viable deep threat, but is getting up there in age. Britt hasn't been the same since injuring himself and is no longer the dangerous threat he once was. Former 49er Delanie Walker is the new starting tight end, replacing the departed Jared Cook. The focus for the Titans on the offensive line was fortifying the guard position. They signed away Andy Levitre from Buffalo and drafted Chance Warmack in the first round. The Titans offensive line was already pretty good, so they should be a strength of the team this season. The Titans were atrocious on defense and they were equal opportunity bad, as they couldn't stop the run or pass. They are hoping the signing of Super Bowl winning S Bernard Pollard can strengthen their pass coverage. The Titans defense is filled with guys that are decent, but no one that stands out. The defense is relatively young so the Titans are hopeful that they have guys that will grow into their positions and improve with time. Someone like defensive end Derrick Morgan, who played well down the stretch last season. Rob Bironas has been a steady, consistent presence for years and that shouldn't change in 2013. Brett Kern is good enough for government work at punter. The Titans are a franchise stuck in purgatory. They aren't awful but they aren't a playoff team yet either. Another sub .500 season could lead to some major changes for next season.
Prediction: 7-9
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2012 Record: 2-14, last place AFC South
Head Coach: Gus Bradley (1st season Jacksonville, 0-0 career)
Key Additions: OT Luke Joeckel, RB Justin Forsett, WR Mohammed Massaquoi, OLB Geno Hayes, DT Roy Miller, CB Marcus Trufant, CB Alan Ball
Key Losses: RB Rashad Jennings, RB Greg Jones, WR Laurent Robinson, OLB Daryl Smith, CB Aaron Ross, S Dawan Landry
2013 Outlook: Honestly, it was hard mustering up the motivation to write about the Jaguars. I know I hate on them every year, but they are such a boring, insignificant franchise. I'm kind of surprised RB Maurice Jones-Drew hasn't made a huge stink to try to get out of there. It was recently announced that Blaine Gabbert will remain the starter for this season, edging out Chad Henne. Gabbert has plenty of detractors but he does have some promising statistics, such as a pretty decent completion rate. Now it helps that he can't get the ball deep and likes to dink and dunk, but I'm trying to be nice. One of the main reasons their season fell off a cliff last year was losing Jones-Drew to injury. He is back and ready to go this season, and if he can stay healthy, the Jags will definitely improve upon last year's two wins. The wide receiver group took a hit with Justin Blackmon's suspension for the first four games of the season. Blackmon was silent most of last year, then broke out in a huge way in a game against the Texans. It remains to be seen if he can have more games like that or if he will quickly flame out due to his off the filed transgressions. The brightest spot on last year's team was WR Cecil Shorts. Shorts led the team in catches, and touchdowns and looks far more ready than Blackmon to take the reigns as the team's number one receiver. TE Marcedes Lewis actually found the end zone last year, which was an improvement from his abortion of a season in 2011. The Jaguars smartly are trying to build their offensive line into a strong unit, and then get the rest of the team around them. They drafted Luke Joeckel number two last season and pairing him up with Eugene Monroe gives the Jaguars stability at both tackle positions. The rest of the line is aging and hurt, so those will be issues to address in the 2014 draft. The Jaguars defense stunk in 2012, especially their run defense. They signed Roy Miller from Tampa to try to help their run defense. They have a mix of young and old with their defensive ends. Tyson Alualu has been a bust as most people expected when the Jaguars drafted him. Jason Babin is the old veteran, who was shipped out of Philadelphia for being a cancer in the locker room. The pass defense could really struggle if the Jags can't get any pressure on the quarterback. It is mostly a rag tag group of players such as S Dwight Lowery and CB Alan Ball. At linebacker you probably have heard of Paul Posluszny, but he's still coasting off his reputation at Penn State, more than anything he has done in the NFL. It is too bad the Jaguars aren't better offensively because they have one of the best kickers in the league in Josh Scobee. P Bryan Anger was okay, but the pressure is on him to be more than okay considering how he was drafted in the third round in 2012 by Jacksonville. Good news Jags fans, I expect you to double your win total in 2013. The bad news is that means you will only win 4 games. This team is still years away from contending and just isn't filled with enough good players to truly be competitive.
Prediction: 4-12
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