1. Denver Broncos
2012 Record: 13-3, First place AFC West
Head Coach: John Fox (3rd season Denver, 100-87 career)
Key Additions: DT Sylvester Williams, RB Montee Ball, WR Wes Welker, C Ryan Lilja, G Louis Vasquez, DE Shaun Phillips, ILB Stewart Bradley, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, QB Quentin Jammer
Key Losses: RB Willis McGahee, WR Bradon Stokley, C Dan Koppen, DE Elvis Dumervil, DT Justin Bannan, DT Ty Warren, OLB D.J. Williams, ILB Keith Brooking, CB Tracy Porter, S Jim Leonhard
2013 Outlook: Five games into the 2012 season the Broncos were 2-3, and questions still remained about whether or not Peyton Manning would ever be the old Peyton prior to all of his neck surgeries. Those questions went away over the next 2 1/2 months as the Broncos won ten straight games to close the year, earning homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. However, playoff struggles that have become all too common throughout Manning's career reared their head in overtime against the Baltimore Ravens. Manning threw a bad interception, and the Ravens would hit the winning field goal in double overtime, sending the Broncos home prematurely. In the 2013 off-season, the Broncos added pieces that should make an already potent offense, even better. The highlight of those moves was plucking WR Wes Welker from the rival New England Patriots. Welker will team with breakout stars Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker to form one of the best wide receiver trios in football. Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreesen give the Broncos decent but not spectacular options at tight end. A major question mark for the Broncos is the run game. Willis McGahee was let go, and Knowshon Moreno has never lived up to the expectations placed upon him when selected in the first round. Ronnie Hillman will have a chance to compete for the job but it wouldn't be surprising if second round pick Montee Ball out of Wisconsin becomes the starting back. The offensive line is a strength and did a good job of keeping Manning upright and avoiding any dangerous situations with his neck. They added to the unit by taking away division rival San Diego's guard Louis Vasquez. Left tackle Ryan Clady gave up just one sack last season and his health might be the biggest key to the Broncos success besides Manning. The Broncos did lose center Dan Koppen to injury in training camp, but were able to coax Ryan Lilja out of retirement to take over for Koppen. The big question going into the season for Denver is their defense. America's bizarre insistence on using fax machines in 2013 came back to haunt Denver, who had a fax snafu cost them Elvis Dumervil. They are hopeful that former Charger Shaun Phillips will continue to play well, as he is coming off a 9.5 sack season last year. News got worse for the defense when it was learned that Von Miller could possibly be suspended the first four games of the season for a drug suspension. The secondary is iffy, with questions about how Rahim Moore will react after his gaffe in coverage played a huge part in the Broncos loss to the Ravens. They added Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie from Philadelphia, as the Eagles couldn't get rid of Cromartie fast enough. Champ Bailey finally showed signs of slowing down, especially in the playoff game when Torrey Smith dominated him. The Broncos are excellent on special teams, with kicker Matt Prater and punter Britton Colquitt combining to form one of the better kicker/punter duos. Returner Trindon Holliday had two touchdown returns during the season and then became a national name when he returned two kicks for touchdowns against the Ravens. Much like last season, the Broncos schedule appears to be pretty easy. Combining that and the talent they have I expect the Broncos to earn homefield advantage in the playoffs for the second straight season. However, I have seen too many Manning playoff failures to pick them to come out of the AFC as champions.
Prediction: 13-3
2. San Diego Chargers
2012 Record: 7-9, 2nd place AFC West
Head Coach: Mike McCoy (1st season San Diego, 0-0 career)
Key Additions: OT D.J. Fluker, ILB Manti Te'o, RB Danny Woodhead, OT King Dunlap, OT Max Starks, G Chad Rinehart, DE Dwight Freeney
Key Losses: OT Jared Gaither, NT Aubrayo Franklin, DE/OLB Shaun Phillips, ILB Takeo Spikes, CB Quentin Jammer, CB Antoine Cason, S Atari Bigby, KR Michael Spurlock
2013 Outlook: The writing was on the wall after the 2011 season that it was time for the Chargers to move on from the Turner/Smith era. But the Chargers were stubborn and because of that 2012 was another wasted, non-playoff season. Turner and Smith are finally gone, and now the Chargers are led by former Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. McCoy earned a lot of credit for adapting his offense to Tim Tebow's strengths in 2011, and was brought in to try to resuscitate Philip Rivers career. As Rivers weapons have disappeared so has Rivers effectiveness. Rivers had the worst yards per attempt average of his career last year and is already dealing with injuries to his wide receiver corps. Danario Alexander was lost for the year last week and Malcolm Floyd was hurt this week. Eddie Royal is back at receiver but it feels likes years ago since he was impressive as a rookie. Injuries have seemed to completely derail Antonio Gates career, sapping Rivers of one of his most dominant targets. Ryan Mathews has been a disappointment, a victim of way too much hype. The Chargers signed scrappy Danny Woodhead away from the Patriots, but he isn't someone that will likely make a ton of difference. The offensive line was atrocious last season so the Chargers tried to address it by drafting D.J. Fluker in the first round. The rest of the line is filled with also rans like King Dunlap and Chad Rinehart. The Chargers scooped up Dwight Freeney late in free agency and have to hope that he has a little something left in the tank. Their defensive ends Corey Liuget and Kendall Reyes showed some promise last year, and are players the Chargers are looking to build the defense around. The talk at linebacker will be Manti Te'o. Right now the talk around Te'o is about him being a victim of catfishing, but he hopes by the end of the year it will be about his play. Aside from Eric Weddle, the secondary is a huge question mark. Last year's starters at corner are gone, replaced by inexperienced players Shareece Wright and Derek Cox. Kicker Nick Novak missed just twice last season, although he only attempted 20 kicks. Punter Mike Scifres is strong and reliable. Things don't sound all that positive for San Diego but despite that I think the Chargers could sneak into the playoffs. I think a new voice and new leadership will do this team wonders. It will also help that they have almost no expectations, a far different scenario from the last few seasons. I think McCoy will help to bring back the good Philip Rivers and that some of young players on the defense will play better than people expect. They won't be a factor in the division race but I expect the Chargers to be right there battling for a Wild Card spot.
Prediction: 8-8
3. Kansas City Chiefs
2012 Record: 2-14, last place AFC West
Head Coach: Andy Reid (1st season Kansas City, 140-102-1 career)
Key Additions: OT Eric Fisher, RB Knile Davis, QB Alex Smith, QB Chase Daniel, FB Anthony Sherman, WR Donnie Avery, TE Anthony Fasano, DE/DT Mike DeVito, ILB Akeem Jordan, CB Sean Smith, CB Dunta Robinson
Key Losses: QB Matt Cassel, QB Brady Quinn, RB Peyton Hillis, WR Steve Breaston, TE Kevin Boss, OT Eric Winston, G Ryan Lilja, DT Glenn Dorsey, ILB Brandon Siler, CB Javier Arenas, S Abram Elam
2013 Outlook: 2012 couldn't have gone any worse for the Kansas City Chiefs. Besides going 2-14 and having a non-existent passing game they had to deal with the shocking circumstances involving the suicide of Jovan Belcher. The disappointing season led to the firing of coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Pioli. With six Pro Bowlers it was clear that the Chiefs had underachieved and it was time to go in a new direction. They went and got the best coach available in Andy Reid. Reid's time had run out in Philadelphia but there is no denying his history of success. It was obvious that Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn weren't the answers at quarterback, so they were jettisoned in favor of Alex Smith. Smith, like Reid had some success but his time had run out in San Francisco with the emergence of Colin Kaepernick. Reid has a history of bringing the best out of his quarterbacks so it will be very interesting to see how Smith plays under Reid. Smith was good during the latter part of his San Francisco years but never spectacular. With the talent they have, that may be all the Chiefs need. They have one of the best running backs in football in Jamaal Charles. Charles sometimes has trouble staying healthy but when he is almost no running back is as electrifying. The question hanging around is whether or not Reid is the coach to maximize the talents of Charles. He has a tendency to get pass happy and he can't do that in Kansas City, where the running game is clearly the best part of the offense. That's not to say the Chiefs don't have skill at the wide receiver position. Dwayne Bowe was disappointing last season but that was more because he had terrible quarterbacks attempting to get him the ball. With at least a decent quarterback in Alex Smith, Bowe should put up strong numbers in 2013. The Chiefs also added receiving weapons in Donnie Avery and Anthony Fasano at tight end. Fasano will team up with Tony Moeaki at tight end, and may eventually supplant him as Moeaki is injury prone. The Chiefs spent the first pick of the draft on Eric Fisher to bolster their offensive line. Branden Albert is on the other side, giving the Chiefs strong bookends to protect Smith. Jon Asamoah is another good player along the Chiefs offensive line. The Chiefs defense was a strength last season, but with such a pitiful offense was given no real chance to be a difference maker for the team. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are pass rushing monsters, combining for 19 sacks last season. Derrick Johnson was a Pro Bowler at linebacker, as was safety Eric Berry, who some though mostly made it on name recognition alone. Brandon Flowers is at the corner position and will be joined by newcomers Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson. The Chiefs are hopeful that 2012 first round pick Dontari Poe shows improvement after a disappointing rookie season. The Chiefs special teams coverage leaves something to be desired but kicker Ryan Succup is pretty consistent, as is punter Dustin Colquitt. The Chiefs are a chic pick to bounce back and make the playoffs this season. Most people point to the talent they already have and the additions of Reid and Smith. I believe over time those two will make a difference but this team only won 2 games last season for a reason. It will take time to build the Chiefs back into a playoff team. The main realistic goal for the team this season should be to try to regain the homefield advantage and atmosphere they once had at Arrowhead. The Chiefs will be better but are still a year away from being a playoff team.
Prediction: 6-10
4. Oakland Raiders
2012 Record: 4-12, 3rd place AFC West
Head Coach: Dennis Allen (2nd season Oakland, 4-12 career)
Key Additions: CB D.J. Hayden, QB Matt Flynn, RB Rashad Jennings, OLB Kevin Burnett, OLB Nick Roach, CB Mike Jenkins, CB Tracy Porter, S Charles Woodson, P Chris Kluwe, KR Joshua Cribbs
Key Losses: QB Carson Palmer, RB Mike Goodson, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, TE Brandon Myers, G Cooper Carlisle, DT Richard Seymour, DT Tommy Kelly, ILB Rolando McClain, CB Shawntae Spencer, S Michael Huff, P Shane Lechler
2013 Outlook: The Raiders were seemingly moving in the right direction and then unnecessarily relieved Hue Jackson of his coaching duties. Instead of having Dennis Allen move them forward, they took a giant step back, falling 4 games worse as a team in 2012 from 2011. Now, as has seemingly been the case for what seems like eternity in Oakland they are rebuilding. Matt Flynn takes over for Carson Palmer. Flynn was supposed to be the guy in Seattle but was supplanted by Russell Wilson in the preseason and that was it for his Seahawks career. No one really knows what Flynn can do aside from a few decent games as a Packer. This Raiders team is a far cry in talent from those Packers teams Flynn was a member of. Flynn has Terrell Pryor and rookie Tyler Wilson behind him and there has been some talk that he could once again lose his job in the preseason, but I don't expect that to happen. Darren McFadden can't stay healthy to save his life and isn't someone the Raiders can realistically count on. Wide receiver is a position filled with question marks and inconsistency. Denarius Moore and Rod Streater have shown big play potential but have also shown their butterfingers just as much. Brandon Myers was consistent at tight end but he is now a New York Giant and it remains questionable who will pick up his slack. An already questionable offensive line suffered a terrible injury yesterday with the loss of left tackle Jared Veldheer for the season. Stefen Wisniewski has proven to be a very good draft pick but he can only do so much. After one of the worst defensive seasons in franchise history it was well known massive changes would occur. Just 2 starters return from last year's defense. Those two are defensive end Lamarr Houston and safety Tyvon Branch. Branch will be joined at safety by returning Raider Charles Woodson. The lasting image of Woodson from the 2012 season was him being outrun by Kaepernick in the playoffs. He doesn't seem to have much left and this appears to be another case of the Raiders signing an over the hill veteran with name value. The Raiders will start rookie first round pick D.J. Hayden at cornerback, along with former Cowboy disappointment Mike Jenkins. Former Saints Super Bowl hero Tracy Porter was signed from Denver, where had a memorable season opening interception return for touchdown and then disappeared. With so many new players having to learn to play together the Raiders could be even worse defensively. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski is one of the league's best and still has as much power in that booming leg as ever. The Raiders added annoying punter Chris Kluwe. It's a good thing Kluwe runs his mouth so much because it prevents attention from being paid to the fact that he isn't really any good. I expect it to be another playoff-less season in Oakland but I do think they will win a few more games this season. The key for this franchise is to take their lumps with Allen and try to stay the course for a few more seasons. The last thing this team needs is more upheaval.
Prediction: 6-10
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