Sunday, November 4
Miami (4-3) at Indianapolis (4-3), Miami favored by 2 1/2
No one would have pegged this as being a battle between two teams over .500 back when the season began. The Dolphins have been doing it through suffocating run defense and strong special teams play. The Colts have been mostly doing it through their offense and a strong passing defense. The Colts struggle mightily stopping the run so this might be the game where Reggie Bush gets back on track. It is not yet known whether Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill will make the start as he recovers from an injury he suffered in the win against the Jets. Whether it is Tannehill or Matt Moore, I don't think it matters. The Dolphins are on a roll and I expect them to grab their fourth straight win.
Prediction: Miami 23, Indianapolis 20
Carolina (1-6) at Washington (3-5), Washington favored by 3 1/2
The Panthers record is bad but save for the loss to the New York Giants, most of their losses have been in close games. They just still haven't learned how to win in a tight game, which was their problem last year. If Cam wants to have a game more like he was having last season then he is facing the right defense in the Redskins. Steve Smith could be primed for a breakout game, and maybe the Panthers can get their running game going for a change. The Redskins offense stumbled a bit last weekend, mostly because the wide receivers couldn't catch a thing, and also because they had to play catch up right away. I expect them to control the game much more this weekend, and for Alfred Morris to have a big game. Both these teams typically find themselves in close games so when they get together it seems natural to think this game will be a tight one.
Prediction: Washington 27, Carolina 23
Denver (4-3) at Cincinnati (3-4), Denver favored by 3 1/2
The Broncos bandwagon is becoming quite full, as is the Peyton Manning for MVP talk. The Broncos have gotten through the brutal first half of their schedule and the load lightens considerably in the second half. I may not be willing to agree to the Super Bowl and MVP talk but can conceded that they are pretty clearly the best team in the AFC West. The Bengals have lost three straight and unlike the Broncos they are now heading into the meat of their schedule. They had a chance to take advantage of some easy opponents to start the year and pad their record but they blew it. Andy Dalton still has not beaten a really good team since he became quarterback and I expect that streak to continue.
Prediction: Denver 34, Cincinnati 24
Baltimore (5-2) at Cleveland (2-6), Baltimore favored by 3 1/2
No matter what the records the Browns typically play the Ravens close. There has been quite a bit of unrest around Baltimore the last few weeks. The injuries to the defense have their fans in a panic as does the lousy play of Joe Flacco. Those issues won't disappear after this game, but I expect the Ravens to feel a little better about themselves after they get the win.
Prediction: Baltimore 20, Cleveland 16
Arizona (4-4) at Green Bay (5-3), Green Bay favored by 11
The Cardinals 4-0 start is a distant memory and they now look like one of the worst teams in the league. That being said, I can't pick the Packers to cover a spread that large, especially after they couldn't do it against Jacksonville last weekend. Injuries have mounted for both of these teams but the Packers have handled it far better than the Cardinals.
Prediction: Green Bay 28, Arizona 20
Chicago (6-1) at Tennessee (3-5), Chicago favored by 3 1/2
I remain bullish on picking the Titans, probably because I am stubborn. I really think the Bears record doesn't match what they are as a team. I think they are an okay team, but 7-1? Not buying it. I think Jay Cutler will make some mistakes, and the Titans will get good field position as a result, allowing them to penetrate a stout Bears defense.
Prediction: Tennessee 27, Chicago 24
Detroit (3-4) at Jacksonville (1-6), Detroit favored by 3 1/2
The Lions have a chance to get back to .500 as they travel to take on the sorry Jags. The Jaguars have at least been competitive so this isn't a definite win for the Lions by any means. The Jags defense could give Matthew Stafford some problems, but I don't think the Jaguars can generate enough offense to win the game. Blaine Gabbert was tossed around like a rag doll by Ndamukong Suh in college, and he will be having painful flashbacks to those memories in this game.
Prediction: Detroit 25, Jacksonville 19
Buffalo (3-4) at Houston (6-1), Houston favored by 10
Mario Williams returns to Houston, where he was good but never quite what the Texans thought they were getting when they drafted him number one overall. Both these teams are coming off a bye week and it probably would have made more sense to put them in the Thursday game. The Texans have been dominant at home save for that loss to the Packers and the Bills have had a propensity for getting blown out. Expect Ryan Fitzpatrick to have a rough day against a stout Texans defense.
Prediction: Houston 31, Buffalo 17
Minnesota (5-3) at Seattle (4-4), Seattle favored by 5
This is another game that didn't look like it would be all that intriguing when the season began but could end up having major playoff implications at the end of the season. The Vikings are out to prove that the embarrassing Thursday night loss at home to Tampa was an aberration. The Seahawks are back at home, were they actually know how to win games. Vikings QB Christian Ponder has looked downright awful the last two games, which doesn't bode well for him on the road in a tough environment.
Prediction: Seattle 24, Minnesota 21
Tampa Bay (3-4) at Oakland (3-4), Oakland favored by 1 1/2
The Raiders looked dead and buried a few weeks ago, but two straight victories and a winnable game here could have them back in the thick of things. Carson Palmer is quietly having a pretty strong season, and the Raiders passing game has been their strength, while Darren McFadden and the rushing game have struggled. Another quarterback that is quietly having a good season is Tampa's Josh Freeman. The Bucs were very impressive in their last game, but this is a young team, and not one I envision winning back to back games in tough environments.
Prediction: Oakland 26, Tampa Bay 21
Pittsburgh (4-3) at New York Giants (6-2), New York Giants favored by 3 1/2
This is a tough game to pick. The Steelers have been terrible on the road this season, but the Giants are a far better road team than they are at home. It has been a week of chaos for both teams due to Hurricane Sandy. The Steelers will be driving in the day of the game since they are unable to find a hotel to stay. As far as actual on the field matters these teams probably couldn't be more evenly matched. Both have good offenses and pretty solid defenses. I expect a game that will go back and forth and be fun to watch, much like the last time they played in New York, 8 years ago. Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning were young pups then, now they are grizzled vets, playing in the prime of their careers.
Prediction: New York Giants 28, Pittsburgh 27
Dallas (3-4) at Atlanta (7-0), Atlanta favored by 4
I have seen some saying they think Dallas will win this game but Tony Romo is so careless with the ball that I can't pick the Cowboys. Matt Ryan has a fantastic record at home and the Georgia Dome will be rocking for Sunday night. The Falcons won't be going 16-0 but the Cowboys aren't the team to stop their undefeated streak.
Prediction: Atlanta 25, Dallas 20
Monday, November 5
Philadelphia (3-4) at New Orleans (2-5), New Orleans favored by 3 1/2
This is a make or break game for both teams. The Saints are definitely out of things if they lose, while the Eagles would have lost their fourth straight. Mike Vick seems to be hanging on to his job by a thread. If he can't get the offense going against the putrid Saints defense then it will definitely be time for a change. The Eagles have way too many playmakers to be struggling on offense like they have been. The Saints offense should get back on track after a tough game at Denver last weekend, but to me the Eagles are the more desperate team. I think the Saints have resigned themselves to this being a lost season without Sean Payton, while Andy Reid and Vick are fighting for their jobs.
Prediction: Philadelphia 33, New Orleans 27
Last Week Against the Spread: 9-5
Overall Against the Spread: 56-58-4
Last Week Straight Up: 9-5
Overall Straight Up: 75-43
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