Sunday, November 18
Philadelphia (3-6) at Washington (3-6), Washington favored by 3 1/2
So last week was do or die when the Eagles took on the Cowboys, and it was do or die for the Redskins two weeks ago when they took on Carolina. Well both teams lost, but thanks to the Giants going through their usual second half funk, neither of these teams is mathematically that far off. Both teams aren't very good and it would take a pretty epic Giants collapse, but at least there is hope! The Nick Foles era begins in Philadelphia as he makes his first career start. Foles become Eagles fans favorite player when he tore it up in the preseason. Now we get to see what he does when the games count, although playing the Redskins defense is akin to playing backup scrubs in the preseason. The Skins are hopeful that with Brandon Merriweather playing his first game of the year, that the Skins secondary will see some improvement. Hope also remains that Pierre Garcon might return to action. An interesting stat relevant to this game is that the Redskins have lost their last eight games against rookie quarterbacks. The Skins should beat the Eagles, especially with the Eagles playing a rookie and their offensive line in tatters. But the Skins never win games they are supposed to, they stink at home, and I expect another disappointing loss for Washington.
Prediction: Philadelphia 27, Washington 21
Arizona (4-5) at Atlanta (8-1), Atlanta favored by 10
The Falcons dreams of an undefeated season came to an end, now they can focus on trying to hold on to homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The Cardinals had a week off to lick their wounds as their season has seen extreme highs and extreme lows, starting the year with four straight wins and now being in the midst of five straight losses. It seems that John Skelton will remain the starter as Kevin Kolb is still injured. Atlanta doesn't really blow teams out so I think the Cardinals will hang but ultimately lose for the sixth straight game.
Prediction: Atlanta 28, Arizona 20
Cleveland (2-7) at Dallas (4-5), Dallas favored by 7 1/2
Things are looking up in Dallas after defeating the Eagles in Philadelphia last weekend. They only face one team with a winning record in their last seven games. Now sure the Cowboys themselves don't have a winning record, but hey they should at least be favored in a bunch of those games. The Brows have an offense that can drive the ball to the red zone and then poops themselves and either turns it over or settles for field goals. The Browns aren't awful, which allows them to be competitive, but they aren't good, which leads to them being 2-7 and after Sunday 2-8.
Prediction: Dallas 24, Cleveland 17
Green Bay (6-3) at Detroit (4-5), Green Bay favored by 3 1/2
Many are expecting this to be a shootout and I can't say I disagree. I love the Packers in this game, especially because they have had almost two weeks to prepare for Detroit. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson finally connected for a touchdown and got that monkey off their backs. Defensively, the Lions have a lot of talent up front, but their secondary is terrible and it costs them games week after week. The Packers bevy of receivers are licking their chops at the prospect of burning the Lions corners.
Prediction: Green Bay 35, Detroit 24
Cincinnati (4-5) at Kansas City (1-8), Cincinnati favored by 3 1/2
The Bengals destroyed the Giants, ending their four game losing streak in emphatic fashion. The Chiefs made the Monday night game against Pittsburgh much more interesting than anyone expected, but ultimately found a way to lose. At least they finally found a way to get stud RB Jamaal Charles going. They also led in regulation for the first time this season, so baby steps for Kansas City. They are winless at home this season, which to longtime fans is pretty crazy because Arrowhead was long considered the toughest place to win a game. Now, it's a place where the Chiefs are underdogs to the Bengals.
Prediction: Cincinnati 21, Kansas City 16
New York Jets (3-6) at St. Louis (3-5-1), St. Louis favored by 3
The Rams had multiple chances to upset the 49ers but each time they found a way to blow it and had to settle for a tie. The Jets are their usual circus selves and continue to spiral to irrelevance. I don't expect a lot of offensive fireworks in this game and think it will be a pretty boring game. I give the Rams the edge with the homefield advantage, as they have played well in their dome this year.
Prediction: St. Louis 20, New York Jets 14
Tampa Bay (5-4) at Carolina (2-7), Tampa Bay favored by 1 1/2
People are starting to take notice of the Tampa Bay Bucs and especially their offense which has been on fire for the past month. They have put up at least 30 points in four of their last five games. QB Josh Freeman is having a career year and has thrown 10 TDs versus 0 INTs in his last four games. On the opposite end of the spectrum is Cam Newton and the putrid Panthers offense. They have a lot of skill players but haven't clicked at all offensively. I think the generous Bucs defense might help their cause some this weekend, but not enough to pick up the win.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 34, Carolina 27
Jacksonville (1-8) at Houston (8-1), Houston favored by 16
16 points is a lot and unless you're the 2007 Patriots I can't pick you to cover that high of a spread. With that being said, the Texans will come pretty close.
Prediction: Houston 29, Jacksonville 14
New Orleans (4-5) at Oakland (3-6), New Orleans favored by 4 1/2
People are pushing each other to try to climb back on the Saints bandwagon, as they have won four of their last five games. Pretty much everyone is chalking this up as a definite win for New Orleans. If this were in the Dome sure, but the Saints have been really bad on the road this season. Also, Raiders QB Carson Palmer has been playing well and should have a huge day against the Saints suspect defense. This will likely be the most entertaining game of the weekend.
Prediction: Oakland 37, New Orleans 34
San Diego (4-5) at Denver (6-3), Denver favored by 7 1/2
If the Chargers lose this game it will just about wipe out any hopes they have of winning the division and should seal the fate of Norv Turner as their coach. I say should because Turner always finds a way to survive somehow. Last time these teams played Denver overcame a 24-0 halftime deficit, scoring 35 consecutive points to win the game. This time I expect them to jump out to the lead and the Chargers to have to try to play catchup. In typical Chargers and Philip Rivers fashion they will look brilliant at times but mostly look completely inept. This will become even more illuminated when put up against the precision with with Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense performs with.
Prediction: Denver 38, San Diego 28
Indianapolis (6-3) at New England (6-3), New England favored by 9 1/2
Another team that sees their bandwagon filling up is that of the Colts, winners of four straight and if the season ended today, securely in the playoffs. They have played well but they have also benefited from the awful competition they have played in last four weeks. For all the accolades Andrew Luck has been receiving, he still has just 10 TDs versus 9 INTs. Everyone might want to pump the brakes a bit. The Colts are not a team that is ready to go into New England and pull off a victory. But, because of the Patriots habit of letting teams stay in games, they will make things interesting on Sunday.
Prediction: New England 30, Indianapolis 27
Baltimore (7-2) at Pittsburgh (6-3), Baltimore favored by 3 1/2
This game has lost some of its luster with Roethlisberger being out and the Steelers having to start Byron Leftwich. The Steelers will miss Big Ben, but if they can get their running game going, something the Ravens defense has struggled to stop, they have a great chance. The Ravens are also not nearly as good a team on the road as they are at home. All that being said, I just can't see the Ravens letting Pittsburgh beat them with Leftwich under center. I expect Joe Flacco to play average, but Ray Rice to churn out some tough yards and push the Ravens to victory and control of the AFC North.
Prediction: Baltimore 21, Pittsburgh 17
Monday, November 19
Chicago (7-2) at San Francisco (6-2-1), No Line
Kind of hard to analyze this game since we still don't know who will be starting at quarterback for either team. It sounds like Alex Smith is likely to play, while Jay Cutler will most likely sit out. No matter who plays quarterback this will be a game dominated by defenses. The 49ers have been good on defense this year, but not at the level they showed last season. The Rams were able to pretty much pass at will on the 49ers secondary which is definitely concerning. It was also surprising to see the 49ers come out flat for that game, the second home game they have been flat for. I expect them to be sufficiently jacked up for a Monday night game, and Randy Moss will likely make an appearance as he loves Monday nights. This will come down to which offense can avoid costly turnovers that the tough defenses they are going up against will be looking for. I trust the 49ers options at quarterback of Smith and Colin Kaepernick to do that more than I do the Bears options of Cutler or Jason Campell.
Prediction: San Francisco 17, Chicago 12
Last Week Against the Spread: 6-8
Overall Against the Spread: 68-74-4
Last Week Straight Up: 10-3-1
Overall Straight Up: 93-52-1
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